Mike Mussina is hanging up the spikes after a brilliant 18-year career with the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees.
Unlike
many other athletes nearing the end, Mussina decided to go out on top.
The veteran right-hander enjoyed a renaissance in 2008, producing his
first 20-win season to anchor a New York starting rotation decimated
with injuries. He posted the second-best ERA+, 132 (league average is
100), during his time with the Yankees. He did this despite having to
pitch in front of a defensively challenged team that ranked near the
bottom of the league in defensive efficiency.
While he no longer
had the dominant stuff that enabled him to have such a nice run in
Baltimore, Mussina reinvented himself on the mound. His command was
exceptional, as he struck out 150 against 30 walks and used his
pitching smarts—putting that Stanford brain to work—to cruise through
the American League East at 39 years old. A large part of his success
came from his ability to get strike one; he did sox 68 percent of the
time, one of the highest marks in the majors.
All in all, it was a nice final chapter in the career of one of the best pitchers of this past generation.
Now that Mussina is officially retired, it is appropriate to begin the Hall of Fame discussion.
The
debate will surely rage on for the next five years. In my opinion, I
think that he is indeed a Hall of Famer—though it is a borderline case.
Mussina
was a model of consistency throughout his career. While wins are one of
the most overrated stats in baseball—since they are so team-driven—it
is hard to ignore the fact that he won at least 10 in every year since
1992. He also picked up more than 15 victories 11 times, collecting 270
for his entire career.
Many voters are myopic in how they
evaluate Hall-eligible pitchers. A resume with 300 wins, it seems, is
the golden ticket to Cooperstown, and this will certainly influence
some votes for Mussina. However, this is an overrated barometer as an
entrance to the Hall’s doors. He could have attempted to come back for
a few more seasons with his eye on the milestone. In reality, this
would decrease his numbers in the stats that really define a pitcher’s
value.
Counting stats such as wins are misleading, since they
are so context-driven. Often times, many players will extend their
careers to reach certain marks in the popular statistical categories
like home runs and wins. This negatively affects their rate numbers.
Credit
Mussina for not falling into that group. Even still, there are only two
eligible pitchers with as many wins who are not in the Hall of
Fame—Bert Blyleven and Bobby Matthews.
Mussina, for his career,
was 270-153 (.638 winning percentage) with a 3.68 ERA, 123 ERA+ and a
2,813/785 K/BB ratio in 3,562.7 innings pitched. He racked up at least
175 strikeouts nine different times, currently ranking 19th on the all-time
career Ks list. Every other pitcher on the list is either headed to or already in Cooperstown. Durability was also an area of strength for him, as he
had 11 seasons in which he topped the 200-inning mark.
Working
against his case, there is only one pitcher in the Hall of Fame, Red Ruffing
(3.80), with a higher career ERA. Only three other pitchers—Ted Lyons
(3.67), Jesse Haines and Herb Pennock (3.60)—have their own plaque with
a career mark above 3.60.
Outside of seven Gold Glove awards,
Mussina lacks some important hardware in his trophy case as well. This
also hurts his case. He finished in the top six in Cy Young voting nine
times, though, again showing off his consistency. The highest finish of
his career was his second-place nod in 1999, when he went 18-7 with a
134 ERA+. He had two top-four finishes as well. He was often overlooked
in the Cy voting, though, because he was pitching in a generation that
featured three of the greatest starters in baseball history, Roger
Clemens, Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez, in his league during the
prime stages of his career.
Some writers will be turned off by
his lack of any major awards, citing an inability for him to dominate
the competition relative to other pitchers in his era. During the
mid-90s, though, he had some dominant stretches for the Orioles,
despite pitching in a hitter-friendly environment. He was a force in
the strike-shortened ’94 season, posting his career-best ERA+, 163,
while picking up 16 wins in 24 starts. He then collected 38 wins in the
next two years, registering a 143 ERA+ in 1995. He also made five
All-Star trips, all during his days with Baltimore.
Mussina was
a near-annual Top-10 finisher among league leaders in ERA (ten times),
ERA+ (12 times), BB/9 (15 times), K/9 (nine times), shutouts (11
times), strikeouts (11 times), runs saved against average (seven times)
and WHIP (11 times). While his greatness and longevity were
overshadowed in the 1990s by Clemens and Johnson and the Atlanta
Braves’ trio—Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux and John Smoltz—he was one of the
most effective right-handers in his day.
Mussina also finished with a better career park-adjusted ERA+
than several Hall of Famers, legends and perennial All-Stars. Among
others, the list includes: Bob Feller (122), Babe Ruth (122), Don
Drysdale (121), Rollie Fingers (119), Blyleven (118), Tom Glavine
(118), Warren Spahn (118), ####lord Perry (117), Dennis Eckersley (116),
Preacher Roe (116), Steve Carlton (115), Ferguson Jenkins (115), Phil
Niekro (115), Dwight Gooden (111) and Nolan Ryan (111).
Mussina
spent his entire career in the American League, pitching in its
superior division, the powerful A.L. East, at the height of the steroid
era during his stints in Baltimore and New York. Had he not had to face
the DH and the superiority of the A.L. for his entire career, his stats
would surely be even better. It is hard to ignore that.
The
critics often cite that Mussina never won a ring. He just missed the
Dynasty stretch in the Bronx, signing a six-year, $88.5-million deal shortly after the Yankees’ last World Series title in 2000. He also lacks
a defining postseason moment—Curt Schilling had the bloody sock, each
member of the Atlanta group were all brilliant in their 1995 World
Series run, ect. Still, despite a 7-9 record, he was effective in the
playoffs. In 16 postseason series, he posted a 3.42 ERA and 145-to-33
K/B ratio in 139.2 innings pitched.
Mussina will be unfairly
hurt by the fact that he did not win 300 games, only had one 20-win
campaign and never won a Cy Young. At some point, though, it seems
likely that he will make the drive up I-81 from his Pennsylvania home
to Cooperstown to make his acceptance speech.
Carlos Pena on Thursday was selected as the Rawlings Gold
Glove Award winner at first base in the American League. Pena, a first-time
selection, posted a .998 fielding percentage in 1,099 chances, which was tied
for first among qualifying first baseman in the majors. In John Dewan’s
plus/minus rating system—perhaps the most effective metric used to evaluate
defensive value—he rated out fifth in the majors at the position, and second
his league, with a +14.
The Rays’ excellent run prevention efforts were the biggest
reason for their remarkable worst-to-first turnaround in the American League
East. Tampa Bay
only allowed 671 runs, nearly a 300-run improvement from its total a season
earlier. The team defense ranked first in the majors in defensive efficiency,
the rate at which batted balls hit into play are converted into outs. The defensive
excellence coincided with dramatic improvements in the bullpen and starting
rotation, helping guide the Rays, with a middling offense, to the A.L. pennant.
Pena was an important part to an outstanding defensive
infield, which featured above-average defenders at each position—Jason Bartlett
(shortstop), Akinori Iwamura (second base) and Evan Longoria (third base). The
left-handed hitting slugger’s defensive contributions normally get overshadowed
by his offensive output—31 home runs, .861 OPS—but he is a solid glove man at
the position and not a bad choice by the managers and coaches.
Longoria was a legitimate candidate to win his own Gold
Glove as well, but lost out to a more deserving candidate, Fielding Bible Award
winner Adrian Beltre of the Seattle Mariners.
Here are the full winners. In a future article, I will offer
my criticisms about some of the undeserving winners (Michael Young, anyone?) in the American Leauge.
P – Mike Mussina, New
York Yankees
C – Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins
1B – Carlos Pena, Tampa Bay Rays
2B – Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox
3B – Adrian Beltre, Seattle Mariners
SS – Michael Young, Texas Rangers
OF – Torii Hunter, Minnesota Twins
OF – Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians
OF – Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners
The New York Yankees landed a catcher, Ivan Rodriguez, at the trade deadline to fill in for the injured Jorge Posada. This gave New York another option with Jose Molina
expected to see the majority of innings at the position before the
deal. The Yankees also added a solid reliever and right-handed bat,
acquiring Damaso Marte and Xavier Nady. Thus, many analysts have
labeled the club as “winners” at the trade deadline, giving some
deserved credit to longtime general manager Brian Cashman.
The Boston Red Sox lost the production of slugger Manny Ramirez, but got rid of his baggage and added a capable replacement who is better defensively, Jason Bay, who has gotten off to an excellent start with his new team.
However,
the other team competing for the American League East title, the Tampa
Bay Rays, remained pat at the deadline. Tampa Bay Executive VP of
Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman refused to give up any “elite” arms
to acquire Bay, for whom the Pittsburgh Pirates turned his services into a nice package of four prospects in three-team deal that sent Ramirez to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Friedman and the Rays have been labeled as “losers” accordingly, but
are they really? Giving up a potential future top-15 shortstop in the
league, Reid Brignac, or Wade Davis or Jeremy Hellickson
would be inconsistent with the vision of the Rays’ ownership group for
sustaining their current level of success for an extended time period.
It is truly way too early to label a team winners or losers. Just ask Omar Minaya, who was applauded for landing Bartolo Colon back in 2002 when he was the GM of the Montreal Expos. Minaya, however, parted ways with three future stars—Brandon Phillips, Cliff Lee and Grady Sizemore—as the Expos fell apart the rest of the way and failed to reach the playoffs.
A
verdict, then, will not be out on this trade deadline season—all of the
deals—for a long time. Plus, for a small-market team to maintain its
success in the current economic market in the industry, it must look at
its young prospects as cost-effective assets, which the Rays have done.
The Rays were losers, writes Jayson Stark. Yahoo! Sports agrees.
Instead, the club may receive a boost from former star Rocco Baldelli,
who has made steady progress in his rare health condition. Baldelli
finished a rehab assignment with Double-A Montgomery on Thursday night,
and could return to the Rays during the current homestand. He hit
.297/.409/.568 with three home runs and eight RBIs in 37 at-bats with
the Biscuits.
A Baldelli decision may be coming, writes Marc Lancaster. This will give Friedman and his staff an important decision to make about the status of Gabe Gross and Jonny Gomes. Gross adds tremendous value with his defense in right field, leaving the club with a difficult choice here.
The internal candidate who is most likely to make an impact in the AL East race for the Rays, though, is former number one overall pick David Price.
Price improved to 10-0 as a professional on Saturday night, striking
out 10 in seven innings to lead the Biscuits to a win over the West
Tennessee Diamond Jaxx. The talented left-hander, the best pitching
prospect in the minors, is now 6-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 48-to-12 K/W
ratio in eight Southern League starts. He has a chance to make the jump
to the majors without pitching in Triple-A, Friedman says.
With
all of the additions made elsewhere in the division, Price truly could
be the ultimate upgrade for a stretch run, perhaps more so than Nady or
Rodriguez. He is that good, having shown an advanced approach to
pitching, mid-90s fastball and excellent command. If there is a pitcher
to make a Joba-like impact, it is him.
Niemann, who was linked to Pittsburgh
in the Bay talks, is 7-5 with a 3.53 ERA and 88-to-36 K/W ratio at
Triple-A Durham. The former first-round pick has seen his star dim as
all of the injuries have taken a tool, decreasing his once-plus
velocity. He is still on the track to the majors, however. He would
have benefited from a trade to Pittsburgh, where he would have jumped into the starting rotation.
Ruggiano
has never been a favorite among scouts, but has posted some solid
statistics during his minor league career. The 26-year-old outfielder
has performed well again at Durham
so far, batting .316/.374/.529 with nine homers and 42 RBIs. The status
of Baldelli will determine if he ever gets a realistic shot with the
parent club, which he did not get during his stint with the Rays
earlier this season. He went 4-for-5 with an RBI in the Bulls’ 8-2 win
over the Charlotte Knights on Saturday night.
Links:
Evan Longoria continued to build his case for AL Rookie of the Year on Saturday night, tying Gomes’ rookie single-season record with his 21st
home run to lead the Rays to a 9-3 victory over the Detroit Tigers.
Longoria, a first-round pick back in 2006, finished 3-for-5 with three
RBIs to raise his line to .280/.354/.540 and increase his RBI total to
67. He is leading the club in homers, RBIs and OPS (.879).
Tampa Bay
cranked out nine runs on 11 hits overall, winning its fourth straight
game while continuing to shine in the friendly confines of Tropicana
Field.
Carl Crawford,
hot of late, continued to perform since moving out of the two spot in
the batting order. Crawford, who has a seven-game hitting streak, drove
in two and scored twice. The perennial stolen-base threat—whose totals
are down because of his poor on-base percentage—swiped his first bag in
eight game as well, and is now batting .272/.315/.401. With a .717 OPS,
a low number for a player at the left field position, he has to turn it
around, and appears to be doing so. With his track record, he could add
an impact bat by default, having the chance to help Tampa Bay score more runs if he can get on base more frequently to take advantage of his biggest asset, speed.
Andy Sonnanstine
got the run support that has eluded him for most of July to earn the
win. Sonnanstine scattered seven hits, allowing two earned runs while
striking out six. Although he is now 11-6 and leading the staff in
wins, it was a big outing for him, with Price waiting in the wings and
his 4.58 ERA leaving a bit to be desired.
Tampa
Bay is now three games up on Boston—and 5.5 on New York—in the
division, improving its home record to 42-16 and 65-44 overall. They
set a record for most home wins (42) in a season.
James Shields
has been one of the best pitchers in the majors at home this season,
going 7-1 with a 2.16 ERA, .205 opponents’ batting average and 72-to-14
K/W ratio in 12 starts at Tropicana Field. Shields will look to
continue that success in the finale of the three-game series with Detroit on Sunday, writesBill Chastain.
One thing that has gone unnoticed at times is the Rays’ team defense. With B.J. Upton and Ty Wigginton logging innings at second base and Brendan Harris and Josh Wilson and others doing the same at shortstop, the Tampa Bay infield defense was terrible in 2007. The addition of Jason Bartlett at shortstop, transition of Akinori Iwamura to second base and emergence of Longoria has helped change that landscape.
This has had tremendous overall positive effects on Tampa Bay’s young pitchers, and is a major reason why the club is still in first place this late in the game. The club currently ranks
first in the league in defensive efficiency—the rate at which balls put
into play are converted into outs. As much as the bullpen has improved
as well, it is hard to put into words the strides that this team has
made in the run prevention equation.
Friedman deserves plenty of credit for pulling the trigger on the Delmon Young deal, with improving the team defense on his mind.
Manny Who?
The Red Sox also won on Friday night, pounding out 12 runs to crush the Oakland Athletics.
Bay—who scored the winning run in an extra-innings affair during his
Fenway debut on Friday—continued to produce, hitting a home run in the
win while Jon Lester improved to 10-3.
Lester
has truly turned into an excellent front-end starter in this league,
having made it through seven innings in eight of his past nine starts.
The 24-year-old left-hander, who threw a no-hitter against the Kansas
City Royals earlier this season, has posted a 3.14 ERA and 101-to-46
K/W ratio to help anchor the Boston pitching staff.
The Red Sox are moving on without Manny, writes Katie Zezima.
Kevin Youkilis also got in on the action, belting two homers
and increasing his hit streak to nine games. He has had a great year—on
the defensive side as well—and is currently batting .313/.380/.557 with
20 long balls and 74 RBIs. He is an integral part of the Boston offensive attack.
Yankees Also Win
New York also got in the win column, as the dream season continued for Mike Mussina, who surrendered only two runs on two hits in seven solid innings to help the Yankees shut down the hot-as-fire Los Angeles Angels and new acquisition Mark Teixeira.
Honestly,
where would the Yankees be without Mussina? He has been a pleasant
surprise for them, winning 14 games while posting an impressive 3.44
ERA and stellar 90-to-19 K/W. He does not leave a lot of room for error
with his declining stuff, but has worked the corners magically with his
excellent control and command
After getting roughed up in his last outing, a 13-4 loss to the Baltimore Orioles, many thought that Mussina was finally regressing back to the mean. Yet he bounced back nicely, out dueling Jered Weaver while holding the Angels scoreless after giving up two runs in the first inning.
Mussina continues to defy the passage of time, writes Brian Heyman.
Jose Molina is going to be his personal catcher, writes Anthony Rieber.
New York, however, will not get a boost in September from ace Chien-Ming Wang, who will miss the remainder of the regular season but could return for the playoffs.
Phil Hughes
is also trying to make his way back from a broken rib, and could have
an impact. Hughes is currently on a rehab assignment along with Carl Pavano, pitching for the Charleston RiverDogs in the South Atlantic League. In his second outing with Charleston
on Saturday night, he earned the win in relief of Pavano, who started
the game and allowed an earned run in three innings. Hughes was impressive, striking out five in 3.2 innings pitched.
Waiver Talk:
Although the trade deadline has passed, players can still move
teams in the August waiver trading period. Paul DePodesta, the former
Los Angeles Dodgers GM and Billy Beane protégé, provides an excellent post on this process in his blog. DePodesta, a major figure in the book Moneyball, currently works in the front office for the San Diego Padres.
Ziegler Story:
The story of Brad Ziegler is about as interesting as it gets. Click here for an excellent recap of his journey, courtesy of blogger extraordinaire Joe Posnanski of the Kansas City Star.
On Monday at 2:00,
Tyler Hissey will host a live chat, similar to the trade deadline live
blog on Thursday. Feel free to stop by and ask a question. Click here to access the chat.
Tyler Hissey recently graduated from Eckerd College in St. Petersburg, Florida, with a degree in business administratio n. In addition to this blog, he covers Major League Baseball, focusing on the Tampa Bay Rays, for the up-and-coming sports network Scout.com, and his work there is frequently syndicated on Foxsports.com . To access his work, go to RaysDigest.co m.
In addition to his writing, he is a frequent guest on the Sports Cafe with Sean Duade on Sarasota FM 1220, where he serves as an MLB contributor.
Prior to working at Scout, Hissey covered the Rays and Cincinnati Reds for MVN.com, better known as the Most Valuable Network. Before his brief stint with MVN, he wrote over 30 sports articles as a lead columnist at WeTalkSports. com, a role which he filled during the summer of 2006.
A Dean's List student at Eckerd, he was also nominated for the college's Writing Excellence Award during the 2006-2007 school year.
To reach him, send an email to TylerHissey@g mail.com.