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Brief Look At Holliday Deal
Nov 13, 2008 | 3:46PM | report this

Have been too busy to write lately, but there were several recent transactions that I wanted to comment on.

I will begin with the Blockbuster deal of the week. I will touch on the Nick Swisher move and the Marlins’ decision to seemingly trade away all of their arbitration-eligible young players to cut payroll in some future posts.

It was surprising to learn that Billy Beane traded for Matt Holliday earlier this week, but I agree with his thought process.

Holliday has definitely benefited from playing in the thin air in Colorado; he posted a .584 slugging percentage and .997 OPS at Coors Field, .486 and .891 on the road. He is more than a pure product of his home hitting environment, though, and will offer a major offensive upgrade in the Oakland outfield next year.

The A’s were one of the worst-hitting clubs in 2008, ranking near the bottom in batting average, on-base percentage and OPS. They lacked a difference-making hitter, and Holliday could fill that void. As a Scott Boras client due for a big payday in 2009, he is clearly a rental player for the cost-effective A’s.  

Colorado would not have been able to afford him, either, so credit the organization for reeling in a nice return—Carlos Gonzalez, Greg Smith, Huston Street—in exchange for a one-year player.

But Beane made the right choice.

Gonzalez may not have strong enough on-base skills to ever emerge into a star. He has some outstanding tools, but his pitch recognition is subpar (81 K’s, 13 walks in 85 games, with a .273 OBP); he was generally not a good fit in Oakland, which places a major emphasis on patience and plate discipline.

The long-term outcome of this trade is going to come down to Gonzalez, though. He has star potential--possibly a .300 hitter with 20-home run power if he develops, with above-average defense--but is one of those players who is going to have to hit around .300 every year to keep his OBP at an acceptable level. If he can improve his approach, which has left to a lot to be desired since his pro debut in 2003, he could develop into a solid major league outfielder. He has the inside track on the Rockies' starting center field job in sping training, but the organization may send him down to Triple-A for more seasoning. When he takes over that role for good, he will see his power numbers improve by playing in Coors Field.

Smith projects as nothing more than a fifth starter in the majors. The 24-year-old lefty struggled with control problems at times in the minors, and then had command issues as a rookie in ’08 (111-to-87 K/BB).  He can add some value, though, with the ability to keep hitters off balance and an excellent pickoff move. He had some rough patches in ’08 but was much better than his 7-16 record indicates, having posted a 4.16 ERA in 190.1 innings pitched. Moving to Coors Field is going to be a difficult change, as he is predominantly a flyball pitcher. But, like any other pitcher, he will benefit from moving into the weaker league.

Street, who has 94 saves and a 2.88 career ERA, is never going to be an impact closer again. He still has a chance to turn into an effective middle reliever in the right situation. Due to injuries, his stuff is not what it once was, causing him to lose his closer’s role early last spring. But he actually had a better year than he was given credit for: 3.73 ERA, 69-to-18 K/W, .667 opponents’ OPS. Beane feels that late-inning relievers are easy to replace ("closers are made, not born"), and therefore no longer had any use for Street’s services.

The A’s still have the core of their excellent (and cheap) bullpen intact, as well a bunch of promising young pitching prospects who are close to making an impact. They are again expected to excel at run prevention in ’09—with the chance to field an excellent young starting rotation, in addition to an efficient defense. Having added an impact hitter finally added to the middle of the lineup, they may now have just enough offense to realistically compete with the L.A. Angels in the division.

If the A’s ride Holliday and the young pitching to a potential postseason berth in the four-team A.L. West, Beane will be happy to accept a pair of compensation picks in the 2010 draft when the slugger bolts for free agency. If he does not see his team as a contender, though, he will have the opportunity to add a quality group of prospects—most likely a better package than what he gave up here—by dealing him at the trade deadline to a contender.

Either way, Oakland sets itself up to compete immediately next year—though the Angels are still the clear-cut favorites, especially if they bring back Mark Teixeira or sign Manny Ramirez—without facing any serious long-term consequences. It was surprising, certainly, but was a great deal for the A’s.

14 Comments | Add a comment   categories: Matt Holliday, Oakland Athletics, Colorado Rockies, Major League Baseball, MLB
 
Price Off Limits
Jul 22, 2008 | 4:24PM | report this

It goes without saying. Stud pitching prospect David Price is off limits.

The Tampa Bay Rays have made it perfectly clear that Price, who is dominating in his first professional season, will not be available in any deals at the trade deadline. Andrew Friedman and his staff are great at finding value, buying low and selling high. Friedman has a tremendous vision of locking up the team's talented young players for the long term, as they did with players such as Evan Longoria and James Shields.

The only way a small-market team can sustain its success in a division with the game's financial superpowers is to build from within, attempting to hold onto as many productive young players as possible. With Price, the Rays have one of the best pitching prospects in the minors well into the next decade, which will perhaps provide the team with the premier pitching staff in the game. If Price lives up to expectations, he will anchor a staff alongside incumbent ace Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza and Shields for a number of years.

David Price (AP)

Dealing away a pitcher like Price would be inconsistent with the Rays' excellent vision for building a sustainable franchise.

The Rays' offense has been a disappointment--Carl Crawford should platoon against lefties and has is among the least productive offensive left fielders in the game this season--and could certainly use another bat, but only at the right price. Make no bones about it, the Rays can compete for a title in 2008, currently sitting as the favorite to hold off the New York Yankees in the American League Wild Card race.

So a few minor tweaks here or there at the before July 31 could really help this team.

Tampa Bay has relied on excellent starting pitching and defense, and has a nucleus right now to make a run at this thing. While there are some concerns with the inexperienced starting rotation, the health status of closer Troy Percival and the Rays' struggling offense, this is an organization with the ability to compete not only now, but for the next several years as well.

Which makes it so important not to get myopic in hoping for a major blockbuster player swap at the trade deadline. As Jayson Stark points out in this excellent column, trades at the deadline--even when the player makes a tremendous impact, see Teixeira, Mark in '07--hardly ever help push a team to a World Series title. Trade talk makes for great debate, but on most instances does not live up to the hype.

Matt Holliday, for instance, is undoubtedly a premier bat in this league. Holliday, the runner-up in the NL MVP voting last season, is this year's version of Mark Teixeira, though. He will be under team control through 2009, so he is not a three-month rental player. Still, he is a Scott Boras client who is going to demand big dollars when he hits the free agent market.

Fans will get a preview this winter with Teixeira, who had a monster second half for the Braves after he was acquired at the deadline in the biggest deal of the season last summer. The Braves, however, were 2.5 games out in the National League East when they acquired the switch-hitting slugger. They then finished six games back, despite a monster performance from their new acquisition. Granted, comparing the '07 Braves and this year's Rays team is misguided; the cliche apples to oranges saying applies, in fact.

Holliday, whose home-road splits tell us a lot, will add around three wins for the team that acquires him, according to Baseball Prospectus. He would undoubtedly be a great addition in the Rays' lineup, which has struggled to hit for any power, and would bring in two compensation picks when he bolted for free agency in '09. However, he is definitely not worth the cost of a prospect like Price, who could make a huge impact down the stretch in his own right when he gets called up in September.

Ditto for Brian Fuentes, who lost his closer's role last year to Manny Corpas. There is a perception among fans that he will make a huge difference, but will he, really? Also, the Rockies are reportedly asking for Jeremy Hellickson or Wade Davis to be included in a package. That asking price, of course, does not pass the laugh test.

A 25-man roster can always improve, but do not expect any major changes for the Rays, who are currently in first place in the American League East.

This story truly is a non-issue, because Price is not going anywhere, obviously. But after hearing several callers talk about giving up Price in a Holliday-type deal today on my appearance on Happy Hour With JP, I was promoted to respond in the latest episode of the RaysDigest podcast below.

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2 Comments | Add a comment   categories: David Price, Tampa Bay Rays, Scott Kazmir, Matt Holliday, Atlanta Braves, Mark Teixeira
 
Did The Fans Get The Final Vote Right?
Jul 11, 2008 | 11:28AM | report this

 

The ballots are in. Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Corey Hart and Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Evan Longoria are headed to the 2008 All-Star Game at Yankee Stadium. Hart, a budding superstar, and Longoria, the leading candidate for the American League Rookie of the Year, benefited from strong election campaigns all across the Internet, edging out the competition to earn their first All-Star invitations.

With a record 47.8 million votes cast, baseball fans clearly enjoy this new voting feature. However, as is the case with the selection process for starters and reserves—where the coaches, players and fans all struggle to make decisions in an imperfect process—the fans do not always make the right decisions on the final ballot. If you disagree, look at the case of Jason Varitek, who will make an All-Star appearance despite his slash stats line of .220/.300/.360 and OPS+ of 73. Varitek, in fact, is struggling to make contact right now, and certainly did not deserve his selection.

Did the fans get it right in choosing Hart and Longoria, though?

Well, since I cannot get enough of writing these All-Star articles, let us have a look.

In the American League, Longoria edged out—in order of votes—Jermaine Dye, Jason Giambi, Brian Roberts and Jose Guillen.

Longoria is a deserving candidate, taking into consideration his role in the Rays’ recent surge to the top of the American League East standings. A smooth-fielding defender at third base, he has delivered enough walk-off hits to make David Ortiz jealous, emerging as the top rookie position player in the league. He is batting .281/.354/.525 with 16 home runs and 53 RBIs, and sits atop the leader board in nearly offensive statistical category among AL third baseman.

With the mainstream media’s recent infatuation with the Rays and a strong campaign sponsored by the organization, this decision was almost inevitable, forcing the former first-round pick to cancel a trip to Las Vegas with his buddies. It looks as if this will be the first of many All-Star trips for Longoria, who is leading Tampa Bay in homers and RBIs as well. For all that he has done for his team, in addition to his contributions in all facets of the game, it is hard to disagree with the fans’ final vote selection here.

Dye has enjoyed a fine season to this point in his own right, slugging .550 with 20 home runs in 86 games. The Chicago White Sox outfielder, who has picked up the slack for several of his fellow veteran teammates, ranks ninth in the league in OPS (.902), fourth among outfielders, and is one of only four players on the circuit with 20-plus homers. He has been a key cog in the White Sox’s lineup, producing big hits while Paul Konerko (.679 OPS, eight home runs) and Jim Thome (.846 OPS) have struggled to get things going at the plate.

The performance of Dye and Carlos Quentin, who was acquired in a trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks this offseason and is leading the club with 21 jacks and 65 RBIs, is a major factor why Chicago currently resides in first place in a division that was expected to be one of the deepest in baseball. He is on the wrong side of 30 and struggled in the first half of 2007, causing Chicago to put him on the trade block only months after he produced one of the finest campaigns of his entire career last summer. He turned it around in the second half of '07, though, batting .298/.368/.579 for the White Sox, who then decided to sign him to a two-year extension. So far, it looks as Kenny Williams’ decision to keep Dye, who has fared better against right-handed pitchers so far, is justified, as he turned in an All-Star first half. Really, he has performed like an All-Star as well, perhaps even more so than Longoria.

Whether the mustache or the gold thong has anything to do with it, the 37-year-old Giambi is enjoying a nice bounce back season as well. After a foot injury sustained in May of last season sidelined him for several weeks, he did not provide the Yankees much of anything, finishing the year with a line of .236/.356/.433 while earning more than $20-million. Then, after a poor April, it looked as if his days as productive slugger were nearing the end. With the Yankees’ interest in soon-to-be free agent Mark Teixeira, Giambi’s days in New York seemed numbered as well. Since the infamous thong story broke, however, he has helped carry the New York offense, coming up with several crucial hits while Jorge Posada and Alex Rodriguez were on the DL and Robinson Cano was lost at the plate. Giambi, tied with Rodriguez for the team-lead in homers (18), now has the sixth-highest OPS (.925) in the league.

Despite a valiant effort, however, the American Mustache Institute failed in its attempt to create enough buzz to get Giambi elected onto the team.

Then there is Roberts, who is among league leaders with 102 base hits, 32 doubles and 25 stolen bases. One of the most productive offensive second baseman in the game, he has posted a line of .291/.372/.481, for one of the highest OPS (.853) totals at the keystone. A solid defender up the middle, he is one of the most underrated players in the game, truly. He has, however, been gunned down on the bases nine times in 34 tries. Regardless, the Orioles, enjoying surprising success, are lucky that they kept onto Roberts, who was nearly dealt to the Chicago Cubs this winter. As is the case with Giambi, it is easy to make the case for him as well, because he delivered an All-Star caliber first half.

Guillen finished last in the final ballot voting, perhaps because he plays in Kansas City. Well, two smaller markets—Milwaukee and Tampa Bay—got their players elected, so there goes that argument. Rather, it seems, the fans actually determined (correctly) that Guillen is undeserving of an All-Star bid. Since calling out his teammates earlier this spring at the height of the Royals’ inability to score runs, he has had his moments. He is leading the club with 13 homers and is among AL leaders with 65 RBIs. Overall, though, he has made far too many outs this season. A direct result of his inability to draw bases on balls (he has only 10 walks while striking out 67 times), his .298 OPS is nothing to write home about, bringing his OPS down to .768, hardly an All-Star mark. In fact, he does not place in the top 40 in the league in OPS, even sitting behind an aging teammate, second baseman Mark Grudzienlak, who is batting .314/.367/.419 for the fourth-place Royals.

Kansas City has a -63 run differential, and only three AL teams have scored fewer than its 386 runs scored as a team. While the performance of his former team, the Seattle Mariners, has made the Royals seem like an offensive juggernaut, Bill Bavasi was right to decline Guillen’s option for 2008. He had a nice season in ’07, batting .290/.353/.460 with 23 home runs and 93 RBIs in spacious Safeco Field, but reports of performance-enhancing drug use put that performance into question. While he hits for some power occasionally, he does not get on base enough, has had a questionable past, and his first half was not All-Star worthy.

It looks as if the fans did a nice job in the American League, but it would be hard to argue with any of the first four aforementioned players.

In the National League, Hart received 8-million votes, beating out David Wright, Pat Burrell, Aaron Rowand and Carlos Lee, respectively.

Hart is a nice player who should play a huge role in the postseason push for Milwaukee, which acquired an ace in left-hander CC Sabathia earlier this week. He does not, however, deserve to be an All-Star, at least not for 2008. The Kentucky native has certainly been a key cog in the Milwaukee offense, posting a .510 slugging percentage with 43 extra-base hits, including 15 homers, and 57 RBIs. He has also swiped 15 bases in 18 chances. Still, though, his .842 OPS is good for 28th in the National League, which makes it tough to choose him over Burrell or Wright.

It is definitely a good sign that the Brew Crew faithful helped get their guy elected, and hopefully the excitement level among the Milwaukee fan base will remain this high down the stretch.

Burrell deserved to get picked here, as he has been a force for the Phillies, who are currently in first place in the National League East. Burrell, fourth in the league in OPS (.993), has been one of the premier performers with the bat on the Senior Circuit to this point, slugging .581 with 22 homers and 54 RBIs. The former Miami star has had an up-and-down tenure in Philadelphia, which is why he is such a polarizing player among the Phillies’ fan base. This season, though, he is putting it all together at the right time—he is in a walk year—taking advantage of playing in Citizen’s Bank Park.

The Phillies recently locked up closer Brad Lidge, but it would not be a surprise if Burrell’s days in the city of Brotherly Love come to an end once the season is over. He was perhaps the biggest snub for the Mid-Summer Classic, though, and it is disappointing that he will not be playing in the Bronx on Tuesday night. In fact, if not for the brilliant play of Lance Berkman, Chipper Jones, Albert Pujols and teammate Chase Utley, Burrell might be getting some strong consideration for first-half MVP in his league. At the very least, he deserves to represent the National League, and it was a surprise that he was not selected by the coaches or players.

Burrell has undoubtedly had the most impact on his team of any of the candidates, but ended up finishing third out of the five. National League manager Clint Hurdle still has one decision left, and the Phillies slugger could end up as the replacement for injured outfielder Alfonso Soriano, who will be replaced in the starting lineup by Matt Holliday.

Wright is having a bit of a down year by his standards, but has still played well enough to confirm his place as perhaps the best player the age of 25 or younger in the National League. He is batting .288/.386/.511 with 17 home runs and 70 RBIs. Wright, a defensive stud who deserved to win the MVP award last year but paid the price for his teammates’ September woes in the eyes of the voters, may have just been snubbed again. While Chipper Jones’ monster first half led to an easy decision for the fans, Wright (.897 OPS) has been equally as valuable to the New York Mets as Aramis Ramirez (.900 OPS) has been to Chicago Cubs. If the Mets make a surprise push to supplant the Phillies in the NL East—they will have to, because the Wild Card will probably come out of the Central—he will again merit consideration for MVP.

Rowand, at 30 years old, is close to turning into a fourth outfielder in the near future, making the San Francisco Giants’ decision to offer him such a lucrative deal fairly puzzling.

This season, though, the gritty outfielder has provided one of the only bright spots for the anemic San Francisco offense, batting .296/.362/.453 with 26 doubles and eight home runs. Regardless, he has not performed like an All-Star, and it is unlikely that the veteran outfielder will do so ever again. A two-time Silver Slugger Award winner, Lee could add another silver bat to his trophy case if he continues to perform in the second half. He is batting .293/.345/.548 with 21 homers and 72 RBIs, helping pack punch in the middle of the Astros’ lineup alongside Berkman. All-in-all, Burrell and Longoria seem like the most deserving of the bunch, though the American League provided a far more difficult decision.

This had to help Longoria, who had #### Vitale on his side.

Update: Hurdle selected Wright, not Burrell, to take Soriano’s place on the National League All-Star roster.

On Saturday, I will be appearing on Sports Talk 1220 to discuss the All-Star game and the first-place Tampa Bay Rays at 3:20 P.M.

Click here to listen live.

13 Comments | Add a comment   categories: Major League Baseball, Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets, Milwaukee Brewers, Corey Hart, Tampa Bay Rays, Evan Longoria, San Francisco Giants, New York Yankees, Jason Giambi, Pat Burrell, Houston Astros, Kansas City Royals, Chicago White Sox, Carlos Lee, Matt Holliday, Colorado Rockies, Brian Roberts, Baltimore Orioles, Jose Guillen
 
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ABOUT ME


RaysDigest
Tyler Hissey recently graduated from Eckerd College in St. Petersburg, Florida, with a degree in business administratio
n. In addition to this blog, he covers Major League Baseball, focusing on the Tampa Bay Rays, for the up-and-coming
sports network Scout.com, and his work there is frequently syndicated on Foxsports.com
. To access his work, go to RaysDigest.co
m. In addition to his writing, he is a frequent guest on the Sports Cafe with Sean Duade on Sarasota FM 1220, where he serves as an MLB contributor. Prior to working at Scout, Hissey covered the Rays and Cincinnati Reds for MVN.com, better known as the Most Valuable Network. Before his brief stint with MVN, he wrote over 30 sports articles as a lead columnist at WeTalkSports.
com, a role which he filled during the summer of 2006. A Dean's List student at Eckerd, he was also nominated for the college's Writing Excellence Award during the 2006-2007 school year. To reach him, send an email to TylerHissey@g
mail.com.
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