The American League East is the majors' toughest division.
The Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays were all strong clubs in 2008.
And even the Baltimore Orioles have
finally made progress in the rebuilding process, which will only make things more interesting.
Under Peter Angelos, the Orioles refused to rebuild for almost a
decade. In the process, the franchise lost a good chunk of its fan base
as the new feel of Camden Yards gradually began to wear off. Since
Angelos brought on Andy MacPhail in June 2007, however, the club has implemented a realistic long-term plan to eventually compete in
the A.L. East.
The only way they, or any club with a similar revenue stream, will be able to sustain success is to build from
within, essentially copying the Rays' blueprint. Tampa Bay developed
several homegrown products of the farm system, and most of its World
Series roster was made up of team-controlled, cheap players under the
age of 25.
Baltimore appears to be on the right track now, though, as it is doing
exactly that. Angelos and co. have wisely devoted the proper financial
resources to improving through the draft, allowing them to take the
best talent available the past two years. This, in turn, has enabled
them to add some much-needed high-impact, cheap talent and depth to an improved
farm system.
MacPhail also acquired a great deal of value last offseason. He pulled off a steal when he
shipped Erik Bedard to the Seattle Mariners in exchange for an
excellent package of prospects and All-Star reliever George Sherrill
and Adam Jones. He also dealt aging shortstop Miguel Tejada to the
Houston Astros, a necessary step that brought in a few nice
prospects.
But the
Orioles newfound hope starts with franchise-changing catching prospect
Matt Wieters, the fifth overall pick of the 2007 draft out of Georgia
Tech University. Wieters, a closer during college who was clocked as
high as 98 MPH on the bump, is an excellent receiver with a rocket arm
and projects to hit for both average and power. He also has excellent
make-up and an advanced approach at the plate. Essentially, he is the
closest thing to Joe Mauer as they come--except with the chance to hit
for more power. He would have been picked earlier if not for signability concerns, with his agent, Scott Boras, reportedly seeking more than $10-million around draft day.
Wieters is arguably the best prospect in baseball.
Baseball America ranked him 12th on their Top 100 prospect list
entering the season before he made his pro debut. He lived up the
pre-season ranking--and them some--in 2008, making his $6-million signing bonus seem like a bargain.
The switch-hitting backstop came out of the gates swinging in High A ball, where he showed tremendous plate
discipline and power potential. He batted .345/.451/.576, with 15 home
runs, 40 RBIs and 44 walks in 69 games. He posted a 1.027 OPS, one of
the highest totals on the circuit before he was promoted, and 16.1
percent walk rate and .454 wOBA. Quite amazingly, he finished his stint
in the Carolina League with 55 runs created, posting a stellar 10.44
RC/27 in 229 at-bats.
Wieters was then promoted to Double-A Bowie, where he continued to
swing the bat with authority. He hit a robust .365/.463/625, with 12
homers in 61 games while showing excellent plate discipline. He walked
38 times compared to only 29 strikeouts while producing a 1.088 OPS, 60 runs created, a 12.37 RC/27 and a
.476 wOBA in the Eastern League.
Wieters combined to hit .355/.454/.600, with 27 home runs, 91 RBIs and a 1.053 OPS. For his efforts, he was named Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year; he even edged out Tampa Bay pitching prospect David Price. He also received rave reviews on his defense, as he improved his game-calling ability and continued to make strides in his footwork.
Not a bad first impression, huh?
Wieters will have an outside chance to unseat incumbent starter Ramon
Hernandez in spring training. Even if he is sent down to Triple-A
for some more seasoning and at-bats--like the Rays did with Evan Longoria--look for
him to win the job outright at some point in 2009. The power might not
translate immediately, but expect the 22-year-old to produce a high
average and on-base percentage. If he receives enough at-bats, he will compete with Price for Rookie of the Year.
Baltimore has several other high-level prospects as well, a group highlighted by pitchers Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman.
Arrieta posted a 2.87 ERA and 9.56 K/9 in 20 starts at High-A. He has dominated hitters in the past and has a high ceiling.
Matusz, the top college pitcher selected in the draft, should rise up
through the system quickly. A standout at San Diego State, the
left-hander throws his fastball in the 93-to-94 MPH range with a nasty
sink and has two improving secondary offerings. He did not sign until
the August 15 deadline--a major league deal with a $6-million
bonus--but has the chance to help out the parent club within a few
years.
Tillman, who came over in the Bedard trade, is a promising starting pitching prospect. At age 20, he was impressive at Double-A Bowie
in 2008, going 11-4 with a 3.18 ERA in 28 starts. Although he still
had some command issues (4.31 BB/9), the 6-5 right-hander struck out
154 and allowed only 10 home runs in 135.2 innings pitched. Given his
age, it was a nice showing--especially after his struggles in High-A in
the Seattle organization in 2007.
Baltimore still has a long uphill battle ahead, but there is finally light at the end of the tunnel. The farm system is in great shape, MacPhail is a competent GM and there are some nice long-term pieces already having success in the majors (Nick Markakis, most notably.)
While a worst-to-first turnaround in '09 is unlikely, the next decade should be much more enjoyable for O's fans. Free Agent Outlook: With all of this being said, it would be unwise for the Orioles to throw big money at free agents A.J. Burnett and Mark Teixeira. Burnett and Teixeira are both Maryland natives, and signing the pair would offer a short-term boost at the ticket window. In reality, however, giving long-term, mutli-million dollar deals to either player will only prevent them from staying on par with their new (and effective) strategy: building a solid major league product through scouting and player development. Baltimore is more than one or two players away from competing, meaning that the franchise would be better off using their financial resources to sign future early draft picks, the young core already in the organization and to buy out arbitration years for Wieters and other high-level prospects.
The Milwaukee Brewers are reportedly close to offering CC Sabathia a five year, $100-million deal.
For the Brewers, as a mid-market franchise, this is about as high as they can go. Anything more would not be in the best interest of the organization, given their limited revenue stream.
However, the market for Sabathia will enable him to generate a substantially greater number, in dollars and years. The Milwaukee offer on the table, then, is more than likely a feigned attempt to keep the fan base from getting upset for not making a real effort to keep him.
Which is eerily similar to the Los Angeles Dodgers' alleged, but not confirmed, two-year $60-milllion contract proposal for slugger Manny Ramirez before the start of the World Series.
Clearly, the Brewers know that Sabathia is going to reject the offer, but now they can unequivocally say that they made a hard push to bring him back. As great as the left-hander was—11-2, 1.65 ERA in 17 starts—a team with their financial limitations should never tie up such a large percentage of its payroll into one player, especially a starting pitcher.
Milwaukee has an excellent farm system, a solid young core at the major league level and some of the brightest stars under 25 in the National League. GM Doug Melvin knew this when he pulled the trigger and made the trade with the Cleveland Indians this summer, acquiring Sabathia as pure rental, plain and simple, to help the club end its long postseason drought.
Well, it worked, helping to generate a buzz about the team in the Wisconsin area as the Brew Crew reached the October playoff tournament for the first time since 1982.
The rental is over now, however. Sabathia has to be returned to Blockbuster, or the free-agent market, and is likely going to sell his services to the highest bidder.
Ben Sheets will bolt for more money as well.
Even with a dramatically different roster, though, do not be surprised to see the Brewers back in the mix again in 2009. They are doing the right thing here, sticking with their plan from July, and will cash in on compensation picks when their two star pitchers bolt for big dollars this winter. In fact, one could make the case that the money on the table may potentially cripple the long-term health of the franchise if an agreement is reached, even if Sabathia were to remain dominant and healthy for the duration.
Sabathia Market: There are not too many teams that have the financial resources to realistically make a run at Sabathia. The favorites at this point appear to be the Dodgers, depending on what route they decide to take with Ramirez, and the New York Yankees. From right here, it looks like Sabathia will end up in the Bronx, providing the Yankees with a clear-cut ace at the front of their rotation. New York is moving into a new stadium, which will increase their already unparallel revenue stream. In addition, there is a ton of money coming off the books, giving Brian Cashman a lot of room to work with. If it comes down to a bidding war, no team will be able to match the Bombers, who could end up with several of the premier free agents on the market, including slugging first baseman Mark Teixeira.
But, now that Game 5 has finally ended, what are die-hard baseball fans going to do with their time?
Well, to some people, the season is only now beginning—the Hot Stove season, that is.
Several big-time players are available on the free-agent market, from sluggers Manny Ramirez and Mark Teixeira to record-setting closer Francisco Rodriguez and stud left-hander CC Sabathia.
Here is a list of the potential Type A free agents, courtesy of Tim Dierkes at MLB Trade Rumors.
Sabathia, it seems, is going to sell his services to the highest bidder, which will undoubtedly be the New York Yankees. The Yankees are moving across the street into New Yankee Stadium, which will generate even more revenue stream for the game’s ultimate financial superpower.
The Yankees’ rotation has some question marks, as Mike Mussina, who won 20 games, is expected to announce his retirement later this week, and the status of Andy Pettitte is unclear. Also, since the Phil Hughes/Ian Kennedy experiment did not go according to plan this year, the Yankees will almost certainly make a splash in the pitching market. Even if they fail to sign Sabathia, who was unbelievable for the Milwaukee Brewers down the stretch, count on them to make a solid push at several other Type A starting pitchers listed above.
The Yankees are also reportedly planning to pursue Teixeira as well. Jason Giambi’s stint in the Bronx appears to have come to an end either way, unless he decides to take a massive pay cut in a short-term deal.
Some other interesting names include Burnett, Burrell, Dunn and Lowe.
Burnett won 18 games, but his peripheral statistics all declined.
Burrell, who hit a huge double in the Phillies’ clinching Game 5 win last night, has excellent on-base skills and is coming off a decent season in which he hit 30-plus home runs. Although he has some deficiencies in his overall game, especially his poor defense and lack of speed, expect several organizations to make a serious run at him. He has spent his entire career in Philadelphia, but he seems ready to test the market, and it might not be in the Phillies' best interest to bring him back, anyway.
The Boston Red Sox have a big decision in regards to the status of Varitek, the captain. He had a down offensive season, posting a sub-.700 OPS, and was practically a guaranteed out in the second half. He is still a valuable defender behind the plate, however, and does a great job handling a pitching staff. A Scott Boras client, he will likely demand a lucrative, multi-year deal. There is no question that is value has diminished, though, and he may no longer be strong enough offensively to serve as a full-time catcher in the majors. If Theo Epstein can bring him back at a discounted rate, it would be wise for them to do so. He could share catching duties and help mentor a young backstop. Unfortunately, there is not a lot of catching depth in the Boston farm system, making it likely that Epstein will attempt to make a deal for a young catcher this offseason, regardless of what they decide to do with the veteran.
It is definitely going to be an exciting offseason, and there is no telling which players yet which uniforms several big-time stars will be wearing next season.
Two things are almost certain, though.
1. Boras, who represents Ramirez and Teixeira and several other stars, is only going to get richer, with a number of his clients due to receive lucrative deals.
2. The Yankees are going to reload by throwing big dollars at the best talent available, which is going to make the A.L. East all the more competitive.
Grant
Paulsen, who has been an accredited member of the national media since
he was a teenager, has already made his mark in the broadcasting
industry although he has yet to graduate from college and is not old
enough to legally drink in this country. Paulsen, 20, is perhaps the
Jay Bruce of sports journalism, having covered the Little League World
Series and Super Bowl for ABC Sports on several occasions. He has also
appeared on the David Letterman show six times. A student at George
Mason University in Virginia, he is currently the host of Minors and Majors, a two-hour weekly show focusing on Major League Baseball and its minor league prospects on XM Radio.
Grant
recently offered his opinions about the latest news and notes around
the league in an interview with Tyler Hissey for Scout.com.
TH:
Grant, thanks for finding the time to answer some questions about all
that is going on in the Major League Baseball season. Let’s get to it.
The Los Angeles Angels
are one of the best run-prevention clubs in the game, with an excellent
defense and pitching staff. The Angels also have a strong bullpen led
by K-Rod, who is on pace to set the single-season saves record. The
offensive situation, on the other hand, has been a cause for concern,
and the addition of switch-hitting slugger Mark Teixeira will undoubtedly help add another impact bat to protect Vladimir Guerrero. Does the trade make Los Angeles the favorite to win the AL?
Grant:
Adding Mark Teixeira was monumental for the Angels. They desperately
needed a bat - and preferably a big one - and they got it when they
traded for him. Their deep pitching staff, ranked eighth in all of
baseball, gives them a chance to win each night, and they are a top-10
team defensively as well. The only area in which they needed to upgrade
was at the plate, and in getting Teixeira they were able to add power
to a lineup that has hit 49 fewer home-runs than teams like the Marlins
and Phillies have this season.
Even if Teixeira proves to be
only a late-season rental, which I think could very well be the case, I
won't disagree for a moment with what the Angels decided to do. He is a
career .285 hitter who can hit his club 35-homers a season and play a
terrific first base. With a team like Los Angeles for the long-haul I could see Tex becoming an annual MVP candidate in the American League. They gave up Casey Kotchman,
who is a nice enough major leaguer, and a decent relief pitching
prospect in hard-throwing righty Stephen Marek. But they got a guy back
who makes them the number-one contender for the title (if I can use a
wrestling term). That's what the Angels are now. They are the top
contender in the AL, and I would be surprised if they aren't in the ALCS.
TH: The Braves certainly went for it all last year, giving up a promising package of prospects—including Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison
and Jarrod Saltalamacchia—to make a run. However, they finished further
out of the division than they were at the time of the acquisition, even
though Teixeira put up some monster numbers down the stretch. In
Kotchman and Marek, GM Frank Wren got about as much as he could have at
this point, certainly more than the club would have received had it
waited for the compensation picks. Still, it seems, they were burned in
the long run. Do you agree? Will teams use this as a lesson before
making similar deals at the deadline?
Grant: I
think that teams might. I've always felt like GMs should ask themselves
only one question before giving up multiple prospects who could
eventually help their club for just one veteran major leaguer. If he
(the guy they are trading for) comes over and plays like an MVP, can we
win the World Series? If the answer is yes, then I am okay with those
trades. If the answer is no, then I don't like the idea. Especially if
a team is just renting a guy like the Braves were with Teixeira last
year, and like the Brewers are this year with CC Sabathia. I didn't
like the Teixeira deal last year, and I wasn't a huge fan of the
Sabathia deal. If he pitches them into the playoffs, though, I will be
okay with the fact that they parted with future All-Star Matt LaPorta.
TH: On an off note, what are the odds that some Angles fans make another Teixeira tribute video on YouTube?
Grant:
I feel like another video is coming soon. From the same guys who
brought us Mark Teixeira I, comes a second and even more epic offering!
Haha. Perhaps the release date will be set for some time in late
October.
TH: As of this writing, David Price
is 9-0 combined between the Single-A Vero Beach and Double-A
Montgomery. Do you see Price making an impact this season? If so, do
you think he will turn into this year's version of Joba Chamberlain, coming out of the bullpen, or will he crack the Tampa Bay rotation should Edwin Jackson or Andy Sonnanstine falter?
David Price (AP)
Grant:
Price is a stud. The guy is going to be 23 later on this month and he
could have been getting big league hitters out as of halfway through
his final college season at Vanderbilt
a year ago. He popped at 99 in his first outing as a pro during spring
training this season, and his breaking pitches are already big-league
ready. He's going to be a star front-line arm for many years to come,
and I could see him and Scott Kazmir being the game's top one-two punch in baseball in a couple years.
With that all said, I think that he will be used in the bullpen down the stretch this season. That will be the best way for Tampa Bay
to get his feet wet against major league hitters. He also had a minor
arm injury earlier this spring, which could make the Rays want to pitch
him out of the pen as a way of keeping his innings count down a little
more efficiently, all while still trying to get production out of his
electric arm.
If he is used out of the pen, I could see him
performing a lot like Joba Chamberlain did last season. His 2007
efforts were something of a once-in-a-decade time promotion, but if
anybody could duplicate that type of start to a career, I think Price
is that guy. I could see Price repeating that type of dominance down
the stretch. He could fortify an already much-improved bullpen and be a
big lift for Tampa Bay
down the stretch. Unfortunately for the Rays, though, he isn't going to
help them hit any better, which is the only phase of the game that they
aren't very consistent with.
TH: I recently wrote a contenders piece for the American League. Which four teams from the league do you see making it to the postseason and why?
Mark Teixeira (AP)
Grant: At
this moment I have the Angels, Red Sox, and White Sox winning the West,
East, and Central, respectively. I rank them in that order because that
is the order of my confidence in each of those teams to capture a
division crown.
The Angels, with the acquisition of Teixeira and the re-emergence of Ervin Santana as a front-line arm, are my pick to represent the AL in the World Series.
I think Boston is better today than it was a week or two ago as well, though. Jason Bay will give them everything Manny Ramirez
did offensively, more defensively, and he'll do it all without creating
any problems or causing any headaches for his new coaching staff. I
think that Jed Lowrie is an upgrade for them at shortstop as well, and I could see him becoming Boston's Dustin Pedroia of this year in the next couple of months.
The
other kind of Sox get terrific pitching and have more power bats than
they know what to do with. I just don't know how much I trust some of
the unproven arms in that rotation (John Danks and Gavin Floyd among them) down the stretch. Getting Ken Griffey Jr. should provide them with a nice boost, though.
My
wild card pick right now is the Rays. They have a deep enough rotation
to win any series they play in, they play great defense and they can
manufacture enough runs - as the AL leaders in thefts - to mask their
anemic team batting average.
TH: Personally, going by their poor run prevention (inexperienced pitching staff and bad infield defense), I do not see the Florida Marlins making the playoffs out of the NL East. They have a negative run differential after all, and, though the Arizona Diamondbacks
made it to the playoffs after scoring fewer runs than their opponents
last fall, I just do not think it is in the cards for the Fish. Do you
agree? If so, who do you think will come out the East?
Grant:
I agree with you on the Marlins. The peripherals just don't add up to
them being a playoff participant (but don't tell the 2007 Diamondbacks
that). The best thing about the Marlins is that they aren't supposed to
win right now. They are loaded for the future, thanks largely to the Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis trade this offseason, and they were able to hang on to most of their top prospects at the trade deadline. I'm a Gaby Sanchez
guy, but he projects more as a backend-arm than an ace, and he was the
only major subtraction from their future core. I think they could keep
playing on the plus side of .500, but I don’t' see them doing much more
than that the rest of the way. Then again, I didn't see them competing
at all this year, so what do I know?
TH: There has certainly been a lot of attention centering around the Milwaukee Brewers’ acquisition of CC Sabathia, though the Brett Favre drama has taken away some of its thunder. Sabathia has energized that clubhouse, adds a legitimate ace alongside Ben Sheets at the top of the staff and is now the best-hitting pitcher in the league with Micah Owings’
demotion to the minors. With that being said, do you think the Brewers
will make the postseason for the first time since the Robin Yount era?
Grant:
The Brewers are my current pick to win the National League's wild card.
Sabathia is one of those guys who can go seven-innings and give his
team a chance to win on a bad night. That's the mark of a true ace, and
he's proven to be just that over the years. He might be baseball's best
pitcher if he ever played an entire season in the NL. The big fella
would just be dominant. And Ned Yost will not have to pull him out of
games for a pinch hitter, because he's proven that he can wield the
wood.
Milwaukee is a better team than St. Louis and Florida, and they are better than any of the clubs in the NL West. With that said, they'll be contending with either Philadelphia or New York
(whoever doesn't win the East) for the wild-card spot, at least in my
insignificant and probably inaccurate projection. I think they stack up
well with either of those two teams. The bottom line is that they had
better get to the playoffs. If they don't, then I really don't like the
trade at all. If they do I wouldn't be shocked at all if they got to
the World Series, considering that they would have Sheets and Sabathia
to throw at teams back-to-back. But they have to get there first, and
in order to do that they need to start playing better defense (they are
11th in the NL in fielding percentage).
TH: Before we end the interview, give us the names of a few prospects to look for when rosters expand in September.
Grant:
Dave Price is the main guy to look out for. He could very well change
the American League East landscape, not just this season but over the
next several years.
In addition to him, the guy I am most excited about seeing is Andrew McCutchen in Pittsburgh. He's going to get a chance at some point in August, or maybe September, to roam the outfield at PNC Park. He's got more tools than Tim Allen and he's been making his way up through the ranks in a "Jay Bruce"
kind of way since the two were drafted real close to each other out of
high school back in 2005. I can't wait to see what he does in his first
dose of action with the Pirates. He's an electrifying talent who can
contribute in a plethora of different ways and baseball fans in the Steel City are in for a treat.
Cameron Maybin is another guy I want to get another look at. I liked what I saw from him in Detroit
last season, but I didn't get enough of him. Maybin getting sent to
Double-A this year was like dangling candy in front of me and telling
me I couldn't have it.
Matt LaPorta and Travis Snider could both also get late-season calls in Cleveland and in Toronto,
respectively. I'd be giddy to get a first-glimpse of either of those
two slugging outfielders in 2008. Both project as lineup-altering
boppers and each should one day find their way onto an All-Star team.
TH: Thanks for taking the time out of your busy schedule, Grant. Keep up the excellent work on XM Radio.
For more info on Grant and his work on XM radio, click here.
Wade Davis was selected by the then-Tampa Bay Devil Rays in the third round of the 2004 First-Year Draft out of Lake Wales High School in Florida.
Davis, 22, has come along way since then, forming one of the top pitching duos in the minors alongside left-handed Jake McGee.
In fact, the two top prospects are frequently mentioned as a pair,
because they have risen through the Rays’ system together as teammates
since they were each selected back in ’04.
That took a turn for the worse this spring, however, as McGee
tore the ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow and is out
indefinitely. Davis, on the other hand, continued to impress in the
Southern League before his recent promotion to Triple-A Durham.
The 6-foot-5 right-hander made his mark in the professional
ranks in the Midwest League back in 2006, posting a 3.02 ERA, 165-to-64
K/W ratio and 1.29 WHIP for Southwest Michigan. He even tossed a
complete game, seven-inning no-hitter and finished second in the
league, behind McGee, in strikeouts. Since then, he has been considered
one of the flagship pitching prospects in the deep Tampa Bay farm
system, as his mid-90s fastball and improving curveball left scouts
drooling at times.
Davis' next stop took him to the Florida State League, where he
went 3-0 with a 1.84 ERA, 88-to-21 K/W ratio and sub-1.00 WHIP (0.96)
in 13 starts for the Vero Beach Devil Rays
to begin the 2007 season. Again pitching alongside Davis in one of the
circuit’s strongest starting rotations—as was the case in Michigan the
summer before—he was named FSL Pitcher of the Week three different
times and was elected to the league All-Star team.
Davis then forced a promotion to Double-A, where he made the
transition with ease. He continued to make strides with his improving
command while looking comfortable against older, advanced hitters to
turn into a force at the top of the Biscuits’ staff. He finished 7-3
with a 3.15 ERA and 81-to-30 K/W ratio in 14 starts down the stretch to
help push his club into the postseason.
Overall, Davis ended up 10-3 with a 2.50 ERA and 169-to-51 K/W
ratio in 27 starts between the two levels, increasing his status as a
prospect. In fact, while many analysts and scouts differ over who is
the better long-term prospect, he was featured in nearly every prospect
publication’s Top 20 prospect list, including Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Milb.com and Scout.com.
Davis, who began the season back in Montgomery, has lived up to
the hype yet again. He was elected to the Southern League All-Star team
two weeks ago after a nice first half, finishing his stay as a Biscuit
with a 9-6 record, 3.85 ERA and 81-to-42 K/W ratio in 19 starts. The
organization, which generally takes its time grooming young arms, was
curious to see how he well he could handle Triple-A, promoting him a
few days later.
On July 20, he made his International League debut—an
impressive one at that— tossing seven shutout innings while
consistently sitting around 95 with his heater. He struck out six while
surrendering only three hits to earn his first win with the Bulls. He
won his next outing as well, allowing three earned runs in six solid
innings on July 25. The former third-rounder, 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA and
12-to-6 K/W ratio at Durham, is 11-6 with a 3.65 ERA in 21 total starts
this year.
Davis’ name has shown up in numerous trade rumors lately, but
has remained focused on his pitching and has continued to shine. The Colorado Rockies turned off the Rays in the Brian Fuentes talks by asking for him or Montgomery right-hander Jeremy Hellickson, a ridiculous asking price for a brief rental of only a decent reliever. He has also recently been linked to the Pittsburgh Pirates, who are reportedly asking for him in a deal for outfielder Jason Bay. As is the case with David Price, though, he is untouchable in the eyes of Tampa Bay Vice President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman.
Davis, who has the potential to turn into a front-line starter
in this league for years to come, will perhaps compete for a rotation
spot in spring training next March—though some analysts see his future
as a dominant, late-innings reliever. So, the short- and long-term
consequences of dealing him for a rental—even Bay, who would not become
a free agent until the end of ’09—are too severe, and he will not get
shipped.
In addition to his mid-90s fastball and hard hammer, Davis has
been working hard to continue the development of a changeup and cutter,
which he has made tremendous strides with and have the chance to turn
into plus pitchers for him. With his size and dominant stuff, it is not
hard to picture him pitching at Tropicana Field in the near future.
Thus, as far as the trade talks, Davis is untouchable.
The Los Angeles Angels acquired the services of Mark Teixeira from the Atlanta Braves on Tuesday night. The Braves dealt Teixeira, a free agent following the season, in exchange for Casey Kotchman and minor league pitcher Stephen Marek.
Although the Angels will only get two months of the switch-hitting
slugger, they were in desperate need of adding another bat to protect Vladimir Guerrero in a lineup that has struggled to score runs. In fact, despite being 11.5 games up over the Texas Rangers in the American League West, the club has a lower run differential than the third-place Oakland Athletics.
The first team to win 65 games, Los Angeles has relied on its excellent starting rotation, a solid bullpen led by closer Francisco Rodriguez, who is threatening to break the single-season saves record, and an above-average team defense.
The Angels’ offensive attack, on the other hand, has been a
major weakness, as the club ranks in the back of the pack in nearly
every statistical category, including runs scored (474), on-base
percentage (.322) and OPS (.721).
Howie Kendrick, Guerrero and Torii Hunter have made an impact, but are currently the only regulars on the 25-man roster who have posted an OPS above .800.
Guerrerro, who has rebounded from a poor start, is leading the
team with 17 home runs and 54 RBIs. Still, he is not 100 percent
healthy, which remains a cause for concern.
Several other starters have struggled mightily, though. The group of disappointments is highlighted by free agent bust Gary Matthews
Jr., who has posted the lowest OPS total among all qualifying left
fielders in the majors and is batting only .234/.313/.346 with seven
homers. Veteran Garret Anderson, who has posted a .309 on-base
percentage and has seen his bat speed drop off dramatically, has also
struggled.
Teixeira, who is batting .283/.390/.512 with 20 home runs and
78 RBIs, will undoubtedly provide a major boost to the L.A. lineup. One
of the most productive hitters in the majors, he will also help provide
protection for the aforementioned core. Also a solid defensive first
baseman, he has a career .909 OPS and will be the premier free agent
available this offseason.
Teixeira was a monster for Atlanta after being acquired from
the Rangers for four minor league prospects in the blockbuster deal of
’07 deadline season, hitting 17 home runs and posting a 1.019 OPS in 54
games. The Braves, however, were 2.5 games out in the National League
East when they acquired the switch-hitting slugger. They then finished
six games back, despite a monster performance from their new
acquisition. This is a different situation right now, however, as the
Angels are already a lock for the postseason, sitting as the runaway
favorites in the AL West.
Therefore, Teixeira has a realistic chance to make a huge
difference, adding the bat that has been missing for Los Angeles, which
even considered signing Alex Rodriguez to fill the void this offseason, over the past two years.
In return, Atlanta is getting a nice player in Kotchman, who has
above average contact and defensive skills. His offensive output,
however, leaves a bit to be desired. He does not hit for the power
normally associated with a corner infielder and has shown decreasing
on-base skills in 2008. More of a contact hitter, he has posted a line
of .287/.327/.448, for a low .774 OPS for a first baseman, with 12
homers and 54 RBIs. To his credit, the former first-round pick out of
Seminole High School in Florida—which had a record amount of players
drafted during his senior year back in 2001—has been great with runners
in scoring position and two outs, posting a line of .357/.426/.429 in a
small sample size of 42 at-bats.
Marek has come out of nowhere to emerge as one of the premier
relief pitching prospects in the minors. A 40th-round pick back in
2004, he went to San Jacinto Junior College and then signed as a draft
and follow. He is 2-6 with a 3.66 ERA, .223 opponents’ batting average
and 57-to-21 K/W ratio in 34 appearances at Double-A Arkansas. Look for
him to make an impact out of the Braves’ bullpen in 2009.
Considering that Teixeira is a brief rental who will play in
only around 50 more games, is a Scott Boras client and is expected to
fetch around $20 million, Frank Wren deserves credit for pulling the
trigger. Wren, the longtime right-hand man under John Schuerholz,
received more value—in the short- and long-term—by dealing the
soon-to-be free agent than the organization would have would have
gotten had it waited to receive a pair of compensation picks when he
bolted for free agency.
Still, the Angels are to be applauded as well, because Teixeira is perhaps the missing link in their quest to win a title.
YouTube Tribute In The Works? Last time Tex was traded, a few Braves fans came up with one of the most popular YouTube sports-related videos of the year, providing a tribute to their new slugger. So, I ask again, is another video in the works, Angels fans?
The Tampa Bay Rays are looking to upgrade their roster at the trade deadline.
Tampa
Bay Vice President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman, however,
appears set to address the Rays’ need for a right-handed bat and relief
help internally, rather than overpaying with prospects for a brief
rental.
Two of the players repeatedly linked to Tampa Bay, Casey Blake and Xavier Nady, were each shipped earlier this weekend, reducing the list of potential right-handed hitting outfielders on the market.
Blake, who has been among the most productive hitters with runners in scoring position so far, was the more likely option
to be shipped to the Rays, who reportedly were the runner-up to acquire
his services. The soon-to-be potential free agent was dealt to the Los Angeles Dodgers for minor leaguers Jonathan Meloan and Carlos Santana.
Blake, currently batting .293/.368/.470, will help improve the Dodgers’
offensive attack and will most likely remain at third base with his new
club—the Rays wanted to move him to the outfield—prompting a demotion
for rookie Blake DeWitt and his sub-.700 OPS to the minors on Sunday.
Tampa Bay fell short in its offer, reluctantly refusing to give up any quality prospects for three months of a surging hitter.
Nady was traded earlier this weekend to the Rays’ in-division rival, the New York Yankees, who are back in the American League East race and are likely to be without regulars Hideki Matsui and Jorge Posada perhaps for the rest of the season. The veteran outfielder was sent along with reliever Damaso Marte in exchange for four prospects, highlighted by 19-year-old outfielder Jose Tabata, who was ranked by Scout.com as the third-best position player prospect in the New York organization. Right-handed pitchers Jeff Karstens, Dan McCutchen—not to be confused with the Pirates’ stud outfield prospect, Andrew—and Ross Oldendorph were also included.
Considering the Pirates’ reported asking price—labeled as ludicrous by many within in the industry—for Nady and his teammate, Jason Bay, last week, the cost, perceived as low, came as a surprise to many.
Nady,
who is enjoying a career season, is currently batting .327/.384/.530,
for a.914 OPS, potentially adding the bat that the Yankees need and
clearing the way for Posada to have season-ending surgery. His value
was at is peak, however, turning off Tampa Bay, which was not willing to part with any promising prospects.
With the aforementioned pair no longer available, Friedman seems set to look internally, with Triple-A Durham outfielder Justin Ruggiano
as a possibility to make an impact down the stretch. Ruggiano, 26,
spent a few weeks in the majors earlier in the season, hitting
.290/.333/.452 in 15 games, but did not get any real playing time. He
has been productive since his demotion, however, while showing the
ability to hit left-handed pitching—.966 OPS in 68 at-bats against
southpaws. In 52 games overall, he is batting .303/.359/.500 with seven
home runs and 38 RBIs. It will be interesting to see if he gets a fair
look the next time around if the club does not end up striking a deal
before the deadline on Thursday.
Joe Maddon also announced that Rocco Baldelli, who is currently rehabbing with the Montgomery Biscuits,
may be an option in this regard as well. Baldelli, who hit a home run
and played five innings in the outfield on Saturday night, has made
steady progress with his rare medical condition and is reportedly
coming along nicely. Regardless, the Rays have not been able to count
on the former star in several years, so why should they expect to now?
It would not be a surprise to see him come up in September, though, if
he can stay on the field over the next few weeks.
In 27 at-bats with the Biscuits, Baldelli is batting .333/.419/.667 with three home runs and eight RBIs. Tampa Bay will still wait to see if he is a legitimate option over the next month before making a decision.
The Rockies’ asking price has turned off Tampa Bay, which would likely not consider including Wade Davis or Jeremy Hellickson
in any deal, let along for a reliever like Fuentes, whose value is high
right now because his recent performance and is approaching his career
high in innings pitched. The Colorado organization also appears to be
close to making a trade with the St. Louis Cardinals—the favorites, according to Peter Gammons of ESPN—and are considering turning into buyers, not sellers, at the deadline.
Street
has caught the eyes of Friedman as well, especially considering that
his value is fairly low right now. The closer, one of the few Oakland regulars over the past few years not to be shipped by Billy Beane yet, would be a great addition. His teammate, outfielder Matt Murton, has also been linked to the Rays.
Price,
8-0 with a 2.01 ERA in 12 starts professional starts, is still the most
likely candidate to help the Rays address their bullpen needs. Perhaps
he will turn into the Joba Chamberlain
of 2008 (if Jeff Samardzija does not beat him to it), as he is
currently dominating the Southern League. The number one overall pick
in the 2007 draft out of Vanderbilt University,
he is 4-0 with a 31-to-12 K/W ratio and 2.19 ERA with the Biscuits,
dazzling with his excellent stuff and advanced pitching smarts.
The lanky southpaw began the year in the Florida State League, where he was a perfect 4-0 in six starts for the Vero Beach Devil Rays.
In fact, Price looked absolutely dominant at times, overmatching young
hitters with his mid-90s fastball and excellent command. He posted a
1.82 ERA, 37-to-7 K/W ratio and .220 opponents’ batting average,
allowing only seven earned runs on 28 hits in 34.2 innings pitched.
Rumors—Friedman has made phone calls about veteran second baseman Jeff Kent and soon-to-be free agent Mark Teixeira, according to several sources.
Kent,
though, is on the wrong side of 40, and is no longer an adequate
defensive second baseman. While the Rays have struggled to score runs,
the team defense—with one of the highest defensive efficiency ratings
in the majors—has been excellent, especially in the infield.
The play of Akinori Iwamura, who was forced to make the transition up the middle from third base to make room for Evan Longoria, has played a huge factor in that, as he has helped to form an excellent double play combination with shortstop Jason Bartlett.
So,
where would the veteran second baseman—a headache in the clubhouse at
times, especially around young players, who played a huge role in the
divide among the young talent and veterans in Los Angeles in 2007—spend
the majority of his innings? DH? Not so fast, as he is only batting
.255/.310/.411 with 10 homers and 43 RBIS.
Not to mention, Kent
has not exactly torn it up against lefties, either, with a .795 OPS in
88 at-bats against southpaws. His bat speed has steadily decreased over
the years, he comes with baggage and would most likely not provide that
much of an upgrade, regardless. Thus, odds are against the Rays—who
have received a great boost from the veteran presence provided by Cliff Floyd and Troy Percival—from adding Kent for their stretch run.
The
market for Teixeira, a Scott Boras client who will demand a lengthy,
multi-million contract this offseason, has been expectedly slim.
Several of the contending teams do not have a need at first base or
designated hitter, and are unwilling to deal any legitimate prospects
for a brief, three-month rental.
Teixeira had a monster second half for the Atlanta Braves
after he was acquired at the deadline in the biggest deal of the season
last summer. The Braves, however, were 2.5 games out in the National
League East when they acquired the switch-hitting slugger. They then
finished six games back, despite a monster performance from their new
acquisition.
Atlanta
general manager Frank Wren, a longtime right-hand man for John
Schuerholz during the dynasty years, is not used to being a seller at
the deadline. The Braves, though, are undoubtedly out of it—done in by
too many one-run losses—and should try to make some deals with an eye
on the future. Still, Wren most likely would want a deal to include
Price—who is absolutely not available—making
this a long shot to happen. Six years of a potential ace for three
months of the player who is the poster boy for why deadline deals often
fail to live up the hype? Yeah, that is not going to happen.
It goes without saying. Stud pitching prospect David Price is off limits.
The Tampa Bay Rays have made it perfectly clear that Price, who
is dominating in his first professional season, will not be available
in any deals at the trade deadline. Andrew Friedman and his staff are
great at finding value, buying low and selling high. Friedman has a
tremendous vision of locking up the team's talented young players for
the long term, as they did with players such as Evan Longoria and James Shields.
The only way a small-market team can sustain its success in a
division with the game's financial superpowers is to build from within,
attempting to hold onto as many productive young players as possible.
With Price, the Rays have one of the best pitching prospects in the
minors well into the next decade, which will perhaps provide the team
with the premier pitching staff in the game. If Price lives up to
expectations, he will anchor a staff alongside incumbent ace Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza and Shields for a number of years.
David Price (AP)
Dealing away a pitcher like Price would be inconsistent with the Rays' excellent vision for building a sustainable franchise.
The Rays' offense has been a disappointment--Carl Crawford
should platoon against lefties and has is among the least productive
offensive left fielders in the game this season--and could certainly
use another bat, but only at the right price. Make no bones about it,
the Rays can compete for a title in 2008, currently sitting as the favorite to hold off the New York Yankees in the American League Wild Card race.
So a few minor tweaks here or there at the before July 31 could really help this team.
Tampa Bay has relied on excellent starting pitching and defense,
and has a nucleus right now to make a run at this thing. While there
are some concerns with the inexperienced starting rotation, the health status of
closer Troy Percival
and the Rays' struggling offense, this is an organization with the
ability to compete not only now, but for the next several years as
well.
Which makes it so important not to get myopic in hoping for a
major blockbuster player swap at the trade deadline. As Jayson Stark
points out in this excellent column,
trades at the deadline--even when the player makes a tremendous impact,
see Teixeira, Mark in '07--hardly ever help push a team to a World
Series title. Trade talk makes for great debate, but on most instances
does not live up to the hype.
Matt Holliday,
for instance, is undoubtedly a premier bat in this league. Holliday,
the runner-up in the NL MVP voting last season, is this year's version
of Mark Teixeira,
though. He will be under team control through 2009, so he is not a
three-month rental player. Still, he is a Scott Boras client who is
going to demand big dollars when he hits the free agent market.
Fans will get a preview this winter with Teixeira, who
had a monster second half for the Braves after he was acquired at the
deadline in the biggest deal of the season last summer. The Braves,
however, were 2.5 games out in the National League East when they
acquired the switch-hitting slugger. They then finished six games back,
despite a monster performance from their new acquisition. Granted,
comparing the '07 Braves and this year's Rays team is misguided; the
cliche apples to oranges saying applies, in fact.
Holliday, whose home-road splits tell us a lot, will add around three wins for the team that acquires him, according to Baseball Prospectus.
He would undoubtedly be a great addition in the Rays' lineup, which has
struggled to hit for any power, and would bring in two compensation
picks when he bolted for free agency in '09. However, he is definitely
not worth the cost of a prospect like Price, who could make a huge
impact down the stretch in his own right when he gets called up in
September.
Ditto for Brian Fuentes,
who lost his closer's role last year to Manny Corpas. There is a
perception among fans that he will make a huge difference, but will he,
really? Also, the Rockies are reportedly asking for Jeremy Hellickson or Wade Davis to be included in a package. That asking price, of course, does not pass the laugh test.
A 25-man roster can always improve, but do not expect any major
changes for the Rays, who are currently in first place in the American
League East.
This story truly is a non-issue, because Price is not going
anywhere, obviously. But after hearing several callers talk about
giving up Price in a Holliday-type deal today on my appearance on Happy Hour With JP, I was promoted to respond in the latest episode of the RaysDigest podcast below.
Last season, Tito and the Gun Show earned near celebrity status with their infamous Mark Teixeira video, even appearing at Turner Field to perform their hit live at a Braves game at the end of last summer. Original video shown below.
Well, a few Mets fans, perhaps still coming to terms with their team's monumental September collapse, have produced a rebuttal in the aftermath of New York's acquisition of left-hander Johan Santana this offseason. Just came across this video recently--it is fairly entertaining.
One can only wonder: If Teixeira signs with the New York Yankees, perhaps the only realistic suitor for the Boras client when he hits free agency this offseason, will a pair of Yankees fans create a similar video tribute?
Tyler Hissey recently graduated from Eckerd College in St. Petersburg, Florida, with a degree in business administratio n. In addition to this blog, he covers Major League Baseball, focusing on the Tampa Bay Rays, for the up-and-coming sports network Scout.com, and his work there is frequently syndicated on Foxsports.com . To access his work, go to RaysDigest.co m.
In addition to his writing, he is a frequent guest on the Sports Cafe with Sean Duade on Sarasota FM 1220, where he serves as an MLB contributor.
Prior to working at Scout, Hissey covered the Rays and Cincinnati Reds for MVN.com, better known as the Most Valuable Network. Before his brief stint with MVN, he wrote over 30 sports articles as a lead columnist at WeTalkSports. com, a role which he filled during the summer of 2006.
A Dean's List student at Eckerd, he was also nominated for the college's Writing Excellence Award during the 2006-2007 school year.
To reach him, send an email to TylerHissey@g mail.com.