Have been too busy to write lately, but there were several recent transactions that I wanted to comment on.

I will begin with the Blockbuster deal of the week. I will touch on the Nick Swisher move and the Marlins’ decision to seemingly trade away all of their arbitration-eligible young players to cut payroll in some future posts.

It was surprising to learn that Billy Beane traded for Matt Holliday earlier this week, but I agree with his thought process.

Holliday has definitely benefited from playing in the thin air in Colorado; he posted a .584 slugging percentage and .997 OPS at Coors Field, .486 and .891 on the road. He is more than a pure product of his home hitting environment, though, and will offer a major offensive upgrade in the Oakland outfield next year.

The A’s were one of the worst-hitting clubs in 2008, ranking near the bottom in batting average, on-base percentage and OPS. They lacked a difference-making hitter, and Holliday could fill that void. As a Scott Boras client due for a big payday in 2009, he is clearly a rental player for the cost-effective A’s.  

Colorado would not have been able to afford him, either, so credit the organization for reeling in a nice return—Carlos Gonzalez, Greg Smith, Huston Street—in exchange for a one-year player.

But Beane made the right choice.

Gonzalez may not have strong enough on-base skills to ever emerge into a star. He has some outstanding tools, but his pitch recognition is subpar (81 K’s, 13 walks in 85 games, with a .273 OBP); he was generally not a good fit in Oakland, which places a major emphasis on patience and plate discipline.

The long-term outcome of this trade is going to come down to Gonzalez, though. He has star potential--possibly a .300 hitter with 20-home run power if he develops, with above-average defense--but is one of those players who is going to have to hit around .300 every year to keep his OBP at an acceptable level. If he can improve his approach, which has left to a lot to be desired since his pro debut in 2003, he could develop into a solid major league outfielder. He has the inside track on the Rockies' starting center field job in sping training, but the organization may send him down to Triple-A for more seasoning. When he takes over that role for good, he will see his power numbers improve by playing in Coors Field.

Smith projects as nothing more than a fifth starter in the majors. The 24-year-old lefty struggled with control problems at times in the minors, and then had command issues as a rookie in ’08 (111-to-87 K/BB).  He can add some value, though, with the ability to keep hitters off balance and an excellent pickoff move. He had some rough patches in ’08 but was much better than his 7-16 record indicates, having posted a 4.16 ERA in 190.1 innings pitched. Moving to Coors Field is going to be a difficult change, as he is predominantly a flyball pitcher. But, like any other pitcher, he will benefit from moving into the weaker league.

Street, who has 94 saves and a 2.88 career ERA, is never going to be an impact closer again. He still has a chance to turn into an effective middle reliever in the right situation. Due to injuries, his stuff is not what it once was, causing him to lose his closer’s role early last spring. But he actually had a better year than he was given credit for: 3.73 ERA, 69-to-18 K/W, .667 opponents’ OPS. Beane feels that late-inning relievers are easy to replace ("closers are made, not born"), and therefore no longer had any use for Street’s services.

The A’s still have the core of their excellent (and cheap) bullpen intact, as well a bunch of promising young pitching prospects who are close to making an impact. They are again expected to excel at run prevention in ’09—with the chance to field an excellent young starting rotation, in addition to an efficient defense. Having added an impact hitter finally added to the middle of the lineup, they may now have just enough offense to realistically compete with the L.A. Angels in the division.

If the A’s ride Holliday and the young pitching to a potential postseason berth in the four-team A.L. West, Beane will be happy to accept a pair of compensation picks in the 2010 draft when the slugger bolts for free agency. If he does not see his team as a contender, though, he will have the opportunity to add a quality group of prospects—most likely a better package than what he gave up here—by dealing him at the trade deadline to a contender.

Either way, Oakland sets itself up to compete immediately next year—though the Angels are still the clear-cut favorites, especially if they bring back Mark Teixeira or sign Manny Ramirez—without facing any serious long-term consequences. It was surprising, certainly, but was a great deal for the A’s.

Near the end of July, the Washington Nationals decided to give shortstop Cristian Guzman a two-year, $16-million contract extension. Guzman, an All-Star, was having a fairly decent season at the time, hitting around .300 while ranking among league leaders in base hits. He is also a strong defender who can play multiple positions. Still, I was critical of the decision at the time, writing:

The Washington Nationals locked up shortstop Cristian Guzman to a two-year, $16 million extension earlier this week. Guzman was elected to the All-Star game, even making some nifty plays in the infield to help keep the National League in the classic extra-innings affair. In reality, however, Guzman did not deserve to be there, by any stretch of the imagination. Sure, he is batting .305 right now, is a solid defensive middle infielder and is finally healthy. Considering his injury-riddled tenure in DC--he missed the entire '06 season--that is saying a lot.

With that being said, Guzman's offensive output still leaves a lot to be desired, evident by his career line of .267/.305/.382 and .686 OPS. While he is actually hitting well above his weight for once, the 30-year-old shortstop has poor plate discipline, drawing walks about as frequently as Jason Bartlett of the Tampa Bay Rays, and is responsible for making far too many outs. Thus, when his batting average regresses back to the mean, his OBP will works its way back to an unacceptable level.

Well, the outmaking machine is now batting .294/.324/.400, for a whopping .725 OPS, through 110 games. Really, defense-aside, he is a below-average major league player. But the real problem that I had with Nationals general manager Jim Bowden’s decision is this: why throw money at a player—even an impact star—who will almost certainly not play an important role when Washington is finally ready to contend? Instead of accomplishing thing of real importance, deals like this usually set a club back from truly remaining competitive over an extended time period.

Over the length of deal, it seems, the Nationals will not be playing any meaningful games. True, anything can happen in the lowly National League. However, the odds of them making a real impact in the NL East before the turn of the next decade—especially with Bowden running the show—are fairly low.

So, I concluded the article like this:

With Guzman, it is almost certain that he will not be part of a postseason-caliber team during the length of the deal as the Nationals appear to be destined to remain in the cellar of the National League East. Therefore, by signing him, the organization took a step backwards, not forward, wasting financial resources that could be invested more wisely. He is only a band-aid, a short-term fix that will end up poorly for Washington. And by locking him up, Bowden essentially wasted millions of dollars that could be devoted to international scouting or signing draft picks.

Well, now it looks like the Nationals are not going to sign their first-round pick, Missouri starting pitcher Aaron Crow. Crow, the ninth pick of the draft, signed a professional contract to play Independent Ball with the Fort Worth Cats of the American Association on Wednesday.

According to Randy Hendricks, Crow’s agent, the talks between the two parties have stalled.

“We wouldn’t have had him sign with the Cats if we thought he was going to sign with the Nationals,” Hendricks said. “The last I talked with Jim Bowden, he didn’t think there was anything more to talk about. I didn’t disagree.”

There is still a chance that the two sides will reach an agreement before the deadline on Friday. It is likely, though, that he will become the next Luke Hochevar, who followed the same route after being selected in the 2005 draft by the Los Angeles Dodgers. Hochevar then reentered the draft the next June, and the Kansas City Royals took him with the number one overall pick.

Bowden—step in here, Stan Katsen—cannot let this happen. Although the organization will receive another first-round pick if they fail to sign Crow, they need to add another premier prospect to the farm system. Right Now.

As a mid-market team, they need to build from within, investing the proper money into player development, then locking up their young talent long-term—before free agency is even an issue. This is perhaps the only way that the franchise will ever be able to sustain a consistent level of success, given the economic market in the industry today. There is a high level of risk associated with nearly every pitcher who gets drafted, but failing to sign a first-round pick is inconsistent with the aforementioned vision.

Which is why the Guzman deal was puzzling, to say the least. Teams that throw around money at free agents when they are not ready to compete yet may leave fans—trust me, I received a lot of emails about why the Guzman deal was a smart move—with the perception that they are righting the ship. In reality, however, they are only prolonging the losing process.

Unlike the Nats’ incumbent shortstop, though, Crow has a chance to be a part of the truly next great Washington team, possibly at the top of the starting rotation. The 22-year-old right-hander has excellent stuff—highlighted by a mid-90s fastball, an 87 MPH power slider and decent command—and the chance to turn into a front-end starter in the majors. The Big 12 pitcher of the year, he went 13-0 with a 2.35 ERA and 127 strikeouts in 107 1/2 innings this past season.

Thus, Bowden has to do work out a deal. If he cannot do so, then you can add this to a list of many blunders during his tenure as GM. Heck, if he did not decide to waste all that money on Guzman, perhaps the dollar amount would not be an issue. Spending money on a potential star in the future is a much better investment than giving away charity to an aging middle infielder without any on-base skills and declining speed, right?

While the Bowden era may be coming to an end soon, the Nationals need to sign Crow. If money is the ultimate factor that prevents it from happening, especially after the Guzman debacle, a leadership change is an absolute must.

Unless, of course, the ownership group enjoys losing.

Carl Crawford should pick it up.

The New York Yankees landed a catcher, Ivan Rodriguez, at the trade deadline to fill in for the injured Jorge Posada. This gave New York another option with Jose Molina expected to see the majority of innings at the position before the deal. The Yankees also added a solid reliever and right-handed bat, acquiring Damaso Marte and Xavier Nady. Thus, many analysts have labeled the club as “winners” at the trade deadline, giving some deserved credit to longtime general manager Brian Cashman.

The Boston Red Sox lost the production of slugger Manny Ramirez, but got rid of his baggage and added a capable replacement who is better defensively, Jason Bay, who has gotten off to an excellent start with his new team.

However, the other team competing for the American League East title, the Tampa Bay Rays, remained pat at the deadline. Tampa Bay Executive VP of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman refused to give up any “elite” arms to acquire Bay, for whom the Pittsburgh Pirates turned his services into a nice package of four prospects in three-team deal that sent Ramirez to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Friedman and the Rays have been labeled as “losers” accordingly, but are they really? Giving up a potential future top-15 shortstop in the league, Reid Brignac, or Wade Davis or Jeremy Hellickson would be inconsistent with the vision of the Rays’ ownership group for sustaining their current level of success for an extended time period.

It is truly way too early to label a team winners or losers. Just ask Omar Minaya, who was applauded for landing Bartolo Colon back in 2002 when he was the GM of the Montreal Expos. Minaya, however, parted ways with three future stars—Brandon Phillips, Cliff Lee and Grady Sizemore—as the Expos fell apart the rest of the way and failed to reach the playoffs.

A verdict, then, will not be out on this trade deadline season—all of the deals—for a long time. Plus, for a small-market team to maintain its success in the current economic market in the industry, it must look at its young prospects as cost-effective assets, which the Rays have done.

The Rays were losers, writes Jayson Stark. Yahoo! Sports agrees.

Instead, the club may receive a boost from former star Rocco Baldelli, who has made steady progress in his rare health condition. Baldelli finished a rehab assignment with Double-A Montgomery on Thursday night, and could return to the Rays during the current homestand. He hit .297/.409/.568 with three home runs and eight RBIs in 37 at-bats with the Biscuits.

A Baldelli decision may be coming, writes Marc Lancaster. This will give Friedman and his staff an important decision to make about the status of Gabe Gross and Jonny Gomes. Gross adds tremendous value with his defense in right field, leaving the club with a difficult choice here.

The internal candidate who is most likely to make an impact in the AL East race for the Rays, though, is former number one overall pick David Price. Price improved to 10-0 as a professional on Saturday night, striking out 10 in seven innings to lead the Biscuits to a win over the West Tennessee Diamond Jaxx. The talented left-hander, the best pitching prospect in the minors, is now 6-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 48-to-12 K/W ratio in eight Southern League starts. He has a chance to make the jump to the majors without pitching in Triple-A, Friedman says.

With all of the additions made elsewhere in the division, Price truly could be the ultimate upgrade for a stretch run, perhaps more so than Nady or Rodriguez. He is that good, having shown an advanced approach to pitching, mid-90s fastball and excellent command. If there is a pitcher to make a Joba-like impact, it is him.

Jeff Niemann and Justin Ruggiano could also contribute as well.

Niemann, who was linked to Pittsburgh in the Bay talks, is 7-5 with a 3.53 ERA and 88-to-36 K/W ratio at Triple-A Durham. The former first-round pick has seen his star dim as all of the injuries have taken a tool, decreasing his once-plus velocity. He is still on the track to the majors, however. He would have benefited from a trade to Pittsburgh, where he would have jumped into the starting rotation.

Ruggiano has never been a favorite among scouts, but has posted some solid statistics during his minor league career. The 26-year-old outfielder has performed well again at Durham so far, batting .316/.374/.529 with nine homers and 42 RBIs. The status of Baldelli will determine if he ever gets a realistic shot with the parent club, which he did not get during his stint with the Rays earlier this season. He went 4-for-5 with an RBI in the Bulls’ 8-2 win over the Charlotte Knights on Saturday night.

Links:

Evan Longoria continued to build his case for AL Rookie of the Year on Saturday night, tying Gomes’ rookie single-season record with his 21st home run to lead the Rays to a 9-3 victory over the Detroit Tigers. Longoria, a first-round pick back in 2006, finished 3-for-5 with three RBIs to raise his line to .280/.354/.540 and increase his RBI total to 67. He is leading the club in homers, RBIs and OPS (.879).

Tampa Bay cranked out nine runs on 11 hits overall, winning its fourth straight game while continuing to shine in the friendly confines of Tropicana Field.

Carl Crawford, hot of late, continued to perform since moving out of the two spot in the batting order. Crawford, who has a seven-game hitting streak, drove in two and scored twice. The perennial stolen-base threat—whose totals are down because of his poor on-base percentage—swiped his first bag in eight game as well, and is now batting .272/.315/.401. With a .717 OPS, a low number for a player at the left field position, he has to turn it around, and appears to be doing so. With his track record, he could add an impact bat by default, having the chance to help Tampa Bay score more runs if he can get on base more frequently to take advantage of his biggest asset, speed.

Andy Sonnanstine got the run support that has eluded him for most of July to earn the win. Sonnanstine scattered seven hits, allowing two earned runs while striking out six. Although he is now 11-6 and leading the staff in wins, it was a big outing for him, with Price waiting in the wings and his 4.58 ERA leaving a bit to be desired.

Tampa Bay is now three games up on Boston—and 5.5 on New York—in the division, improving its home record to 42-16 and 65-44 overall. They set a record for most home wins (42) in a season.

James Shields has been one of the best pitchers in the majors at home this season, going 7-1 with a 2.16 ERA, .205 opponents’ batting average and 72-to-14 K/W ratio in 12 starts at Tropicana Field. Shields will look to continue that success in the finale of the three-game series with Detroit on Sunday, writes Bill Chastain.

One thing that has gone unnoticed at times is the Rays’ team defense. With B.J. Upton and Ty Wigginton logging innings at second base and Brendan Harris and Josh Wilson and others doing the same at shortstop, the Tampa Bay infield defense was terrible in 2007. The addition of Jason Bartlett at shortstop, transition of Akinori Iwamura to second base and emergence of Longoria has helped change that landscape.

This has had tremendous overall positive effects on Tampa Bay’s young pitchers, and is a major reason why the club is still in first place this late in the game. The club currently ranks first in the league in defensive efficiency—the rate at which balls put into play are converted into outs. As much as the bullpen has improved as well, it is hard to put into words the strides that this team has made in the run prevention equation.

Friedman deserves plenty of credit for pulling the trigger on the Delmon Young deal, with improving the team defense on his mind.

Manny Who?

The Red Sox also won on Friday night, pounding out 12 runs to crush the Oakland Athletics. Bay—who scored the winning run in an extra-innings affair during his Fenway debut on Friday—continued to produce, hitting a home run in the win while Jon Lester improved to 10-3.

Lester has truly turned into an excellent front-end starter in this league, having made it through seven innings in eight of his past nine starts. The 24-year-old left-hander, who threw a no-hitter against the Kansas City Royals earlier this season, has posted a 3.14 ERA and 101-to-46 K/W ratio to help anchor the Boston pitching staff.

The Red Sox are moving on without Manny, writes Katie Zezima.

Kevin Youkilis also got in on the action, belting two homers and increasing his hit streak to nine games. He has had a great year—on the defensive side as well—and is currently batting .313/.380/.557 with 20 long balls and 74 RBIs. He is an integral part of the Boston offensive attack.

Yankees Also Win

New York also got in the win column, as the dream season continued for Mike Mussina, who surrendered only two runs on two hits in seven solid innings to help the Yankees shut down the hot-as-fire Los Angeles Angels and new acquisition Mark Teixeira.

Honestly, where would the Yankees be without Mussina? He has been a pleasant surprise for them, winning 14 games while posting an impressive 3.44 ERA and stellar 90-to-19 K/W. He does not leave a lot of room for error with his declining stuff, but has worked the corners magically with his excellent control and command

After getting roughed up in his last outing, a 13-4 loss to the Baltimore Orioles, many thought that Mussina was finally regressing back to the mean. Yet he bounced back nicely, out dueling Jered Weaver while holding the Angels scoreless after giving up two runs in the first inning.

Mussina continues to defy the passage of time, writes Brian Heyman.

Jose Molina is going to be his personal catcher, writes Anthony Rieber.

Bobby Abreu, Wilson Betemit, Jose Molina (his first of the year) and Alex Rodriguez all homered for the Yankees, who were without second baseman Robinson Cano.

Brian Bruney was called back up to the club, writes Joshua Robinson.

New York, however, will not get a boost in September from ace Chien-Ming Wang, who will miss the remainder of the regular season but could return for the playoffs.

Phil Hughes is also trying to make his way back from a broken rib, and could have an impact. Hughes is currently on a rehab assignment along with Carl Pavano, pitching for the Charleston RiverDogs in the South Atlantic League. In his second outing with Charleston on Saturday night, he earned the win in relief of Pavano, who started the game and allowed an earned run in three innings. Hughes was impressive, striking out five in 3.2 innings pitched.

Waiver Talk:

Although the trade deadline has passed, players can still move teams in the August waiver trading period. Paul DePodesta, the former Los Angeles Dodgers GM and Billy Beane protégé, provides an excellent post on this process in his blog. DePodesta, a major figure in the book Moneyball, currently works in the front office for the San Diego Padres.

Ziegler Story:

The story of Brad Ziegler is about as interesting as it gets. Click here for an excellent recap of his journey, courtesy of blogger extraordinaire Joe Posnanski of the Kansas City Star.

On Monday at 2:00, Tyler Hissey will host a live chat, similar to the trade deadline live blog on Thursday. Feel free to stop by and ask a question. Click here to access the chat.

To contact Tyler Hissey, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com.

The youth movement is in full swing for the Cincinnati Reds. Even with veteran-loving Dusty Baker running the show, Cincinnati has received some of its strongest performances from youngsters under the age of 25.

Jay Bruce tore up Triple-A, posting the highest OPS (1.023) in the International League before making his highly anticipated major league debut. Bruce then caught the nation’s eye with his first week in the bigs, providing enough walk-off hits to make David Ortiz jealous in a sensational debut. Bruce mania swiftly followed, as the 20-year-old Texan received a full feature in Sports Illustrated and even took some thunder away from Ken Griffey Jr., whose pursuit of 600 home runs came to an end back in June. While he has fallen back down to earth a bit—.264/.319/.410, seven homers overall—he is currently one of the most exciting young outfielders to watch in the league, showing why he was the number one prospect in the minors in several pre-season Top 100 lists. He will undoubtedly serve as a mainstay in an outfield that is expected to lose Adam Dunn and Griffey Jr. in the near future, most likely in right field.

Edinson Volquez has been spectacular as well, going 12-4 with a 2.77 ERA with a 134-to-61 K/W ratio in 21 starts to earn an invitation to the All-Star Game at Yankee Stadium. Volquez, who came to Cincinnati in exchange for Josh Hamilton this winter, has even drawn comparisons to Pedro Martinez with his electric performance thus far. He is likely to anchor the Reds’ starting rotation well into the next decade, easing the pain among Cincinnati fans with the loss of Hamilton, who is flourishing with the Texas Rangers.

Johnny Cueto has had his ups and downs, but has also flashed glimpses of brilliance, posting a 116-to-47 K/W ratio and a park-inflated 5.02 ERA. Cueto, 22, is also a major reason why the future looks bright for the franchise, though he has been lost in translation pitching alongside his All-Star teammate.

Then there is rookie Joey Votto, the Reds’ premier position player prospect outside of Bruce entering the season. Votto quickly supplanted veteran Scott Hatteberg as the full-time first baseman after a strong start to emerge as one of the most productive offensive rookies in the majors. The 25-year-old left-handed hitter is batting .270/.339/.440. While he has not shown even average on-base skills, drawing only 36 walks in over 350 plate appearances, he has flashed tremendous power and is among rookie leaders with 13 home runs.

Cincinnati, 12.5 games back in the NL Central, is clearly out of it for this year, and should look to make some deals at the deadline with an eye on adding a supporting cast for the aforementioned core. With a plethora of soon-to-be free agents on the roster expected to come off the books come September, general manager Walt Jocketty truly has a nice opportunity to turn his team into a force on the Senior Circuit for years to come as the Griffey hometown reunion comes to its ultimate end.

However, the Reds have drawn scant interest from other clubs about Bronson Arroyo—who has $25 million remaining on his contact and was reportedly taken off the market—and Adam Dunn. Dunn, who has the ninth-highest OPS total in the league and is tied for the majors’ lead with 30 home runs, would certainly upgrade the offensive attack for a contending club with his high-level offensive production. He is a polarizing slugger, however, who has scared away several potential suitors with his poor defense and high strikeout totals. His days are likely coming to an end in Cincy, regardless, but he is serious undervalued within the industry and it will be tough to replicate his production.

With a number of prospects flourishing in the majors, there are still several high-quality prospects still developing.

Homer Bailey—yeah, the phenom right-hander from Texas who was lit up this weekend—has still yet to establish himself in the majors. Considering the hype that has surrounded Bailey since he was drafted in the first round back in 2004, this is a major disappointment. He has been ineffective in nearly all of his six major league starts this time around, going 0-4 with a 6.52 ERA and 11-to-13 K/W ratio in 29.0 innings pitched. The 22-year-old, still yet to develop a capable second offering, has been hit hard as well, giving up eight gopher balls and nearly two hits per inning during his up-and-down stay with the parent club. He was absolutely awful in his latest outing, on Saturday, allowing 15 hits and four earned runs in a loss to the Colorado Rockies. He turned in two quality outings—in which he allowed three runs or less in 5.2 innings plus against the San Diego Padres and Milwaukee Brewers— before the weekend debacle at Great American, but is likely to be shipped back down to the minors.

Bailey has hardly been dominant in Triple-A, either, as he is 4-7 with a 4.42 ERA, 82-to-38 K/W ratio and 1.42 WHIP in 16 starts with the Louisville Bats. While many have questioned his attitude, his velocity is down and his performance has left a lot to be desired, he is still young enough, at 22, to turn things around. Still, his star has dimmed.

There are a few talented bats in the wings as well, several of whom are still miles away from contributing to the big league club. The group includes Juan Francisco, Todd Frazier and Drew Stubbs and is ikely to receive a boost with the addition of first-round pick Yonder Alonso, who is a Scott Boras client and has yet to sign.

Francisco has tremendous power potential, currently sitting with 15 home runs for the Sarasota Reds. He has drawn only 13 walks while striking out 93 times, however, and needs to improve his approach at the plate. One could even say that he is Dunn without all of the runs scored and walks. Still, the corner infielder is only 20 years old playing against older competition, is a switch hitter and has compiled 46 extra-base hits and a line of .284/.307/.479 in 405 at-bats. If he can figure things out plate discipline-wise and bring his on-base skills to an acceptable level, then he could turn into a prospect to keep a close eye on.

Frazier, the Reds’ supplemental first-round pick back in ’07 out of Rutgers University, had a fine professional debut season, posting a line of .319/.405/.538 in 47 at-bats in lower-level ball. The former Little League World Series hero began this year at Dayton, where he posted a 1.000 OPS and hit seven home runs in 30 games. He then received a promotion to the Florida State League, remaining at shortstop—he will most likely be forced to switch positions—while receiving the label as a “gamer” from many scouts along the way. At a tough hitters’ park down in Sarasota, he has been solid yet unspectacular, hitting .292/.367/.468 with nine home runs and 40 RBIs.

Frazier is an excellent infield prospect, though, and will likely end the season at Double-A.

Stubbs recently made the jump to the Southern League, where he has performed well (.341/.431/.386) in a brief sample size with the Chattanooga Lookouts. How he performs the remainder of the season in Double-A will be a play a huge factor in the development of the 2006 First-Round pick, who had a tremendous collegiate career at the University of Texas.

A solid defensive outfielder with great speed, Stubbs has shown the ability to get on base since signing. He has not hit for the power that many expected yet—he hit numerous shots during his days with the Longhorns—he has been a consistent offensive player who continues to improve. Before his promotion, he batted .261/.366/.406 with five home runs, 38 RBIs and 27 stolen bases in 35 tries down in Sarasota.

Alonso and the Reds are expected to reach an agreement on a signing bonus before the August 15 deadline, which will add a high-impact player who is ready to make a quick jump to the majors to the Reds’ minor league system. The University of Miami star, who reportedly had dinner this weekend with stars Ortiz and Alex Rodriguez, posted a ridiculous 1.311 OPS and finished sixth in the nation with 24 home runs during his final college campaign. He has great on-base skills and an advanced approach to hitting, which should allow him to make a quick rise through the organization.

The Reds have plenty of interesting prospects, though there is a drop off in pitching depth after Bailey, who will lose his prospect label one of these days. Still, the organization—regardless of what happens before Thursday or not—has a bright future ahead of itself.

To reach Tyler Hissey, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com.

Andy LaRoche (AP)

Blake DeWitt was finally shipped to the minors this afternoon.

DeWitt, who got off to a nice little start and earned Rookie of the Month after a solid May, has provided the Los Angeles Dodgers absolutely nothing at a key offensive position, batting .257/.324/.364 with only five home runs. So, if you are scoring home, that leaves the rookie infielder with a .688 OPS, one of the lowest marks at his position in the majors. It was actually not a poor debut for the former first-round pick, considering that he posted a .306 on-base percentage in Double-A—the highest level that he has reached prior to joining the Dodgers—in 2007.

All the while, Andy LaRoche has been available, even auditioning at multiple positions while rehabbing in the minors before rejoining the Dodgers on June 10. LaRoche, who has battled injuries over the past two years, has been regarded as one of the best third base prospects in the game for some time. He has a great approach at the plate and 20-homer-plus power potential, but the organization has done everything that it can to prevent him from getting a real shot, until DeWitt’s struggles hit a breaking point. Sure, he has not posted great numbers in his brief time at the highest level, hitting .217/.348/.316 with only three homers in 152 career at-bats.

However, that is too small of a sample size to justify overlooking LaRoche, who posted a .987 OPS with 18 homers before getting called up last summer. For some reason, Ned Colletti, who has made some horrendous personnel decisions (Juan Pierre, anyone?) in the recent past, does not see him as a major player in the Dodgers’ future, and short-term, success.

According to the Los Angeles Times, LaRoche is on the trade docket yet again. Perhaps this is in his best interest, because he has the skill set to flourish with another franchise.

Los Angeles added another player to block him, sending two minor leaguers to the Cleveland Indians for Casey Blake on Saturday. Blake, who has been among the most productive hitters with runners in scoring position so far, adds another temporary fix for the Dodgers, who are looking to take the division crown in the wide-open, lowly National League West. The soon-to-be potential free agent cost the club minor leaguers Jonathan Meloan and Carlos Santana. Currently batting .293/.368/.470, he should certainly improve the Dodgers’ offensive attack the rest of the way, with the acquisition prompting a demotion for DeWitt, a fan favorite.

Still, though, why would Colletti, after failing to land a shortstop for injured star Rafael Furcal, add Blake when he has a potential impact corner infielder in LaRoche?

Blake is an average defender, only adding another aging veteran, along with 40-year-old Jeff Kent, to an infield defense that has struggled since losing Furcal. The Dodgers rank 19th in the game in defensive efficiency—the rate at which balls put into play are converted into outs—and the veteran infield is not going to help improve that mark, by any means.

LaRoche will get his chance, potentially turning into a star. It is clear now, though, it will most likely not be in Los Angeles. If he does, indeed, become an impact run producer after being dealt, Colletti will hear about it for years.

Update: LaRoche was optioned to Triple-A on Sunday as well.

You can reach Tyler Hissey by sending an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com.

The Tampa Bay Rays are looking to upgrade their roster at the trade deadline.

Tampa Bay Vice President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman, however, appears set to address the Rays’ need for a right-handed bat and relief help internally, rather than overpaying with prospects for a brief rental.

Two of the players repeatedly linked to Tampa Bay, Casey Blake and Xavier Nady, were each shipped earlier this weekend, reducing the list of potential right-handed hitting outfielders on the market.

Blake, who has been among the most productive hitters with runners in scoring position so far, was the more likely option to be shipped to the Rays, who reportedly were the runner-up to acquire his services. The soon-to-be potential free agent was dealt to the Los Angeles Dodgers for minor leaguers Jonathan Meloan and Carlos Santana. Blake, currently batting .293/.368/.470, will help improve the Dodgers’ offensive attack and will most likely remain at third base with his new club—the Rays wanted to move him to the outfield—prompting a demotion for rookie Blake DeWitt and his sub-.700 OPS to the minors on Sunday.

Tampa Bay fell short in its offer, reluctantly refusing to give up any quality prospects for three months of a surging hitter.

Nady was traded earlier this weekend to the Rays’ in-division rival, the New York Yankees, who are back in the American League East race and are likely to be without regulars Hideki Matsui and Jorge Posada perhaps for the rest of the season. The veteran outfielder was sent along with reliever Damaso Marte in exchange for four prospects, highlighted by 19-year-old outfielder Jose Tabata, who was ranked by Scout.com as the third-best position player prospect in the New York organization. Right-handed pitchers Jeff Karstens, Dan McCutchen—not to be confused with the Pirates’ stud outfield prospect, Andrew—and Ross Oldendorph were also included.

Considering the Pirates’ reported asking price—labeled as ludicrous by many within in the industry—for Nady and his teammate, Jason Bay, last week, the cost, perceived as low, came as a surprise to many.

Nady, who is enjoying a career season, is currently batting .327/.384/.530, for a.914 OPS, potentially adding the bat that the Yankees need and clearing the way for Posada to have season-ending surgery. His value was at is peak, however, turning off Tampa Bay, which was not willing to part with any promising prospects.

With the aforementioned pair no longer available, Friedman seems set to look internally, with Triple-A Durham outfielder Justin Ruggiano as a possibility to make an impact down the stretch. Ruggiano, 26, spent a few weeks in the majors earlier in the season, hitting .290/.333/.452 in 15 games, but did not get any real playing time. He has been productive since his demotion, however, while showing the ability to hit left-handed pitching—.966 OPS in 68 at-bats against southpaws. In 52 games overall, he is batting .303/.359/.500 with seven home runs and 38 RBIs. It will be interesting to see if he gets a fair look the next time around if the club does not end up striking a deal before the deadline on Thursday.

Joe Maddon also announced that Rocco Baldelli, who is currently rehabbing with the Montgomery Biscuits, may be an option in this regard as well. Baldelli, who hit a home run and played five innings in the outfield on Saturday night, has made steady progress with his rare medical condition and is reportedly coming along nicely. Regardless, the Rays have not been able to count on the former star in several years, so why should they expect to now? It would not be a surprise to see him come up in September, though, if he can stay on the field over the next few weeks.

In 27 at-bats with the Biscuits, Baldelli is batting .333/.419/.667 with three home runs and eight RBIs. Tampa Bay will still wait to see if he is a legitimate option over the next month before making a decision.

Friedman and his staff are reportedly looking for bullpen help as well—rumors have linked Brian Fuentes of the Colorado Rockies, Huston Street of the Oakland Athletics and Tyler Walker of the San Francisco Giants to the Rays. Again, though, the club seems more likely to make a change through its farm system, especially with top prospect David Price making pitching look easy down in the minors.

The Rockies’ asking price has turned off Tampa Bay, which would likely not consider including Wade Davis or Jeremy Hellickson in any deal, let along for a reliever like Fuentes, whose value is high right now because his recent performance and is approaching his career high in innings pitched. The Colorado organization also appears to be close to making a trade with the St. Louis Cardinals—the favorites, according to Peter Gammons of ESPN—and are considering turning into buyers, not sellers, at the deadline.

Street has caught the eyes of Friedman as well, especially considering that his value is fairly low right now. The closer, one of the few Oakland regulars over the past few years not to be shipped by Billy Beane yet, would be a great addition. His teammate, outfielder Matt Murton, has also been linked to the Rays.

Price, 8-0 with a 2.01 ERA in 12 starts professional starts, is still the most likely candidate to help the Rays address their bullpen needs. Perhaps he will turn into the Joba Chamberlain of 2008 (if Jeff Samardzija does not beat him to it), as he is currently dominating the Southern League. The number one overall pick in the 2007 draft out of Vanderbilt University, he is 4-0 with a 31-to-12 K/W ratio and 2.19 ERA with the Biscuits, dazzling with his excellent stuff and advanced pitching smarts.

The lanky southpaw began the year in the Florida State League, where he was a perfect 4-0 in six starts for the Vero Beach Devil Rays. In fact, Price looked absolutely dominant at times, overmatching young hitters with his mid-90s fastball and excellent command. He posted a 1.82 ERA, 37-to-7 K/W ratio and .220 opponents’ batting average, allowing only seven earned runs on 28 hits in 34.2 innings pitched.

Rumors—Friedman has made phone calls about veteran second baseman Jeff Kent and soon-to-be free agent Mark Teixeira, according to several sources.

Kent, though, is on the wrong side of 40, and is no longer an adequate defensive second baseman. While the Rays have struggled to score runs, the team defense—with one of the highest defensive efficiency ratings in the majors—has been excellent, especially in the infield.

The play of Akinori Iwamura, who was forced to make the transition up the middle from third base to make room for Evan Longoria, has played a huge factor in that, as he has helped to form an excellent double play combination with shortstop Jason Bartlett.

So, where would the veteran second baseman—a headache in the clubhouse at times, especially around young players, who played a huge role in the divide among the young talent and veterans in Los Angeles in 2007—spend the majority of his innings? DH? Not so fast, as he is only batting .255/.310/.411 with 10 homers and 43 RBIS.

Not to mention, Kent has not exactly torn it up against lefties, either, with a .795 OPS in 88 at-bats against southpaws. His bat speed has steadily decreased over the years, he comes with baggage and would most likely not provide that much of an upgrade, regardless. Thus, odds are against the Rays—who have received a great boost from the veteran presence provided by Cliff Floyd and Troy Percival—from adding Kent for their stretch run.

The market for Teixeira, a Scott Boras client who will demand a lengthy, multi-million contract this offseason, has been expectedly slim. Several of the contending teams do not have a need at first base or designated hitter, and are unwilling to deal any legitimate prospects for a brief, three-month rental.

Teixeira had a monster second half for the Atlanta Braves after he was acquired at the deadline in the biggest deal of the season last summer. The Braves, however, were 2.5 games out in the National League East when they acquired the switch-hitting slugger. They then finished six games back, despite a monster performance from their new acquisition.

Atlanta general manager Frank Wren, a longtime right-hand man for John Schuerholz during the dynasty years, is not used to being a seller at the deadline. The Braves, though, are undoubtedly out of it—done in by too many one-run losses—and should try to make some deals with an eye on the future. Still, Wren most likely would want a deal to include Price—who is absolutely not available—making this a long shot to happen. Six years of a potential ace for three months of the player who is the poster boy for why deadline deals often fail to live up the hype? Yeah, that is not going to happen.

This article was originally posted at Scout.com.

To reach Tyler Hissey, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com.

In perhaps his final Double-A start, Montgomery Biscuits left-hander David Price turned in a quality start on Wednesday night, scattering three runs on seven hits in six innings against the Tennessee Smokies. Price struck out six without walking a batter, allowing his first unearned of the season. While he was effective, this was certainly not his most dominant outing so far. He even looked human for once, surrendering a two-run home run to Tennessee catcher and Chicago Cubs prospect Jake Fox, who has 12 homers and an OPS near .900. Fox’s shot was only the fourth home run that Price has given up all year.

Overall, though, it was still a solid start for Price, who is likely to earn a promotion to Triple-A Durham sometime later this week. Jeremy Cummings, an International League All-Star who has been a nice addition to the Bulls’ starting rotation, was added to the US Olympic roster yesterday. This will perhaps clear the way for the 22-year-old, whose ERA jumped to 2.19 on the night. If he does not get the call in the next few days, a promotion will come soon enough, as it is unlikely that he will be in Montgomery this time next month.

The first overall pick in the 2007 draft out of Vanderbilt University, Price has made pitching in the minors look easy so far in his first professional season. The lanky southpaw began the year in the Florida State League, where he was a perfect 4-0 in six starts for the Vero Beach Devil Rays. In fact, he looked absolutely dominant at times, overmatching young hitters with his mid-90s fastball and excellent command. He posted a 1.82 ERA, 37-to-7 K/W ratio and .220 opponents’ batting average, allowing only seven earned runs on 28 hits in 34.2 innings pitched.

After showing that he was ready for the next level, Price earned his promotion to Montgomery. He has made the transition flawlessly—Jeremy Hellickson, on the other hand, struggled a bit getting adjusted—making pitching in the Southern League look easy by going 4-0 with a 2.03 ERA and a 25-to-10 K/W ratio in his first five appearances before Wednesday. Overall, combined between Vero Beach and Montgomery, he is now 8-0 with a 2.07 ERA—only 16 earned runs in 71.2 innings pitched—and 68-to-19 K/W ratio.

The Tampa Bay Rays have been reportedly searching for bullpen help. Instead of incurring the cost of acquiring a reliever along the lines of Brian Fuentes, the Rays will most likely look for internal reinforcements. Price is perhaps the missing link for Tampa Bay as the club attempts to make its first postseason appearance. He has the command, pitching sense and overall stuff—far beyond his years—to get hitters out at the highest level, evident by his dominant showing in spring training against the New York Yankees.

Whether or not Price will come up as a power late-innings reliever or take a spot in the Rays’ starting rotation (if a Tampa Bay starter should get hurt or falter), it is almost certain that he will have an impact when rosters are expanded in September, if not sooner. He is gifted enough on the mound to make a significant contribution. Thus, it would not be a surprise to see him turn into this year’s version of Joba Chamberlain, who added a huge boost to push the Yankees into the postseason down the stretch in ’07.

Often times, prospects do not live up to the hype, and it is rare to see a player like Evan Longoria make a flawless jump to the majors. Price, though, is the real deal, possessing the mental make-up and pure ability to make a similar to transition to Longoria.

Also worth mentioning, Rocco Baldelli played three innings in right field for the Biscuits, going 0-for-1. If he can remain on the field until then, Baldelli is also a likely candidate to join the Rays as a September call-up.

To reach Tyler Hissey, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com.

Jeremy Hellickson is one of the premier pitching prospects in the Tampa Bay Rays’ excellent farm system. Hellickson, 21, was selected by the Rays in the fourth round of the 2005 draft out of an Iowa High School, where he was a two-sport star in baseball and basketball. Since his selection, he has steadily risen up the Rays’ system, and received a promotion earlier this summer to Double-A Montgomery.

Hellickson tore up the high school showcase circuit in the summer of 2004, inching up top prospect lists with his performance at numerous Perfect Game USA events. He also led the Junior National Team to a gold medal at the ’04 World Championship in Taiwan, going 2-0 with a 17-to-1 K/W ratio in 14.0 innings pitched as the ace of the USA staff. Following his impressive showing at several events—he also tossed a scoreless inning of relief at the AFLAC All-American Game—during the summer of his junior year, he emerged as one of the most sought after prep pitching prospects in the nation.

Since his high school season did not start until May 24—as the weather in Iowa makes for a long spring—he made a habit of working out at the Perfect Game USA headquarters in Cedar Rapids. Although he flashed a low-90s fastball throughout the spring, some scouts worried about his size—he is only 6-foot-1—and commitment to LSU. Many talent evaluators were also weary of a high school pitcher coming from a cold-weather state, as there were limited opportunities to see him pitch before the June First-Year draft.

Hellickson acknowledged in an old interview that his size hurt his draft status.

“That is what a lot of people have said. I am working hard to prove anyone that ever doubted me that I can be a successful pitcher at the big league level some day regardless of my size. Size definitely helps some pitchers out, but I think my stuff will get me where I want to be.”

Tampa Bay, though, chose Hellickson with its fourth-round selection, adding another intriguing youngster to its deep stable of young arms. After signing with the then-Devil Rays, he reported to rookie-level Princeton, where he struck out 11 in only six innings of work.

Hellickson spent the 2006 season with the Hudson Valley Renegades in the short-season New York Penn League. He enjoyed a fine showing in his first true professional campaign, posting the lowest ERA, 2.43, in the organization in 77.2 innings pitched. The then-19-year-old finished the year 3-3 with an impressive 96-to-16 K/W ratio in 15 appearances to finish as the league’s leader in strikeouts. He also registered an opponents’ batting average of .193 and .091 WHIP. A Mid-Season All-Star in the league, his performance did not go unnoticed, as he was named the top prospect on the circuit by Baseball America and Hudson Valley Pitcher of the Year.

Hellickson then made the jump to the South Atlantic League with ease in 2007, helping pitch the Columbus Catfish to a championship. Although he remained in extended minor league spring training and missed the first few weeks of the year, he enjoyed an excellent campaign to anchor a deep Columbus starting rotation. He won 13 of 21 starts, finishing with a 2.67 ERA, 106-to-34 K/W ratio and a .214 opponents’ batting average. In 111.1 innings pitched, he allowed 87 hits while finishing with a 0.92 GO/AO. A command specialist with a low-to-mid-90s heater and a decent curveball and changeup, he cracked the Rays’ Top-10 prospect list in nearly every pre-season publication for his performance in his full-season debut.

Hellickson came into camp this February with plenty of expectations, and scouts were interested to see how well he could make the transition to the Florida State League. He did not disappoint, going 7-1 with a 2.00 ERA in 14 starts with the Vero Beach Devil Rays. Perhaps more impressive, he showed a tremendous ability to miss bats, registering a 83-to-5 K/W ratio while limiting opponents to a .224 batting average in 76.2 innings pitched. Making it look easy with every outing, he was named as the starting pitcher for the East squad in the FSL All-Star game, though he did not pitch due to a blister on his pitching hand.

For his stellar performance, Hellickson—along with his Vero Beach teammate at the time, David Price—was promoted to Double-A Montgomery at the end of June. The jump to Double-A, however, has not been as flawless for him as it was for Price, who is dominating the circuit. The Iowa product was roughed up for eight hits, including five homers, in his Double-A debut, one of the worst performances of his professional career. With two outs in the fifth inning that night, he surrendered back-to-back-to-back homers, leading to his early exit from the game.

Hellickson has rebounded nicely since then, as his K/W ratio is now 20-to-3 through his five Southern League starts. He is 0-3 with a 4.88 ERA in 27.2 innings pitched since the promotion. Hellickson, who continues to adjust to the advanced level of competition, was sharp in his last appearance, on June 18, when he tossed seven shutout innings while striking out five against Birmingham. As a fly ball pitcher, there are concerns about his tendency to give up the long ball, but he should continue to improve the rest of the summer.

Hellickson’s name has surfaced in trade rumors recently—the Colorado Rockies are reportedly asking for him or Wade Davis to be included in a package for closer Brian Fuentes— as Major League Baseball gets closer to the July 31 trade deadline. The odds of him getting moved, however, are fairly slim. While he does not profile as a front-end pitcher at the highest level, he is still one of the most promising pitching prospects in the minors and has the chance to emerge as a solid middle-of-the-rotation righty in the majors some day.

Scout.com recently ranked Hellickson as the eighth-best (this does seem a bit high) prospect in Minor League Baseball. Click here for the full list.

Here is a scouting report on Hellickson from SaberScouting.com.

The dog days of summer are fast approaching in the 2008 Major League Baseball season.

With only 60 games left on the docket, around half of the majors’ 30 teams are in striking distance in their respective division. Granted, this total includes nearly every club from the National League West, where the Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers are tied for the division lead despite sub-.500 records.

So, which teams are legitimate contenders? In the first edition of a two-part series, here are my contender and pretender picks in the American League.

American League East:

In 2008, the division has three contenders, all of which would be running away with the thing if placed in the NL East.

Boston Red Sox: Contenders—

The Red Sox had a tough weekend, watching their division lead disappear after struggling to do anything offensively against the Los Angeles Angels. To make matters worse, the “Manny Being Manny” antics have taken on a whole new meaning.

Regardless, Boston is still the favorite to take the division crown. Even without the presence of David Ortiz, the Red Sox have scored runs in bunches, having posted the third-highest runs total (503) in the majors through July 21. The club also ranks second in batting average (.280), on-base percentage (.355), slugging percentage (.448) and OPS (.804), trailing only the Texas Rangers by small margins in nearly every category.

When Ortiz returns and if Jason Varitek, sitting below replacement-level right now, can regain anywhere near his normal level of production, look out.

J.D. Drew, who was named the Most Valuable Player at the All-Star game in New York, has been invaluable since Ortiz went on the disabled list. Drew has posted a slash stats line of .294/.406/.557 with 17 homers and 55 RBIs while sitting among AL leaders with a .963 OPS.

Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis were deserving of their All-Star selections as well.

However, there is some concern about Ramirez, who allegedly struck out on purpose in an at-bat against Mariano Rivera in New York a few weeks back. This was reportedly a reaction to the six-figure fine that he received for pushing a longtime club employee after his unusual, last-minute request for tickets. Henry’s patience is wearing thin with the slugger for accusing the organization of being dishonest in contract negotiations as well.

All things considered, it might be in the organization’s best interest to wash its hands of Ramirez after the season, as he enters the decline stages of his career. With stricter testing policies for performance-enhancing drugs, players are not aging as well as they did back at the turn of the century. This makes it unlikely that he will sustain his consistent .950-OPS level of production as he inches closer to age 40.

Boston needs Ramirez now, though. So the chance that he becomes a distraction while losing his focus as a hitter is a real cause for concern. Off-field-issues aside, he has been productive yet again through this month, hitting .297/.397/.531 with 19 home runs and 62 RBIs to help pick up the slack while the lineup was without Ortiz.

Boston is also one of the strongest teams in the league when it comes to run prevention, with a strong starting rotation and the sixth-highest defensive efficiency rating in the majors. Clearly, then, it is not a surprise that the club has the largest run differential, +77, in the American League.

There are some concerns with in the bullpen, as the link to closer Jonathan Papelbon has not had its ups and downs. But with such a deep pitching staff—Daisuke Matsuzaka, 10-1 with a 2.65 ERA and 77-to-16 K/W ratio leads the way, though he has not been efficient enough with his pitches—and potent offense, the Red Sox are not only contenders, they are in position to make a deep run in October.

New York Yankees: Contenders—

It is never a wise move to bet against the Yankees.

New York has won seven of its last 10 games to move within five games of first-place Tampa Bay. Considering where the Yankees were in May—as they were in ’07 as well—this is no small feat.

Brian Cashman and the club gambled on a pair of youngsters to carry the Yankees’ starting rotation, right-handers Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy. The experiment has not gone according to plan, however.

Hughes, who is still projected to turn into a potential front-end starter, turned in six relatively ineffective starts before going on the disabled list with a strained oblique and cracked rib.

Kennedy’s struggles, on the other hand, have prompted questions about whether or not he was as promising as the organization let on. Drafted out of the University of Southern California in ’06, he has posted excellent statistics in his professional career, but his fringe stuff leaves little room for error when his command is off.

To make matters worse, ace Chien Ming-Wang is out until September after injuring himself running the bases in Interleague Play. Wang, the majors’ winnignest pitcher the previous two seasons, has used his heavy sinker to induce ground ball outs at the top of the New York staff. The loss of the right-hander, who was 8-2 with a 4.07 ERA before hitting the DL, created a hole, which prompted New York to offer a contract to Sidney Ponson.

Luckily, Mike Mussina has been a pleasant surprise, going 12-6 with a 3.49 ERA in his first 20 starts. Mussina was perhaps snubbed from the All-Star game, but will he be able to maintain his performance or will he regress back to the mean?

Joba Chamberlain has provided a boost as well, moving from the eighth-inning role to return to his original status as a starter. As excellent of a setup-man as Chamberlain was, he adds more value in his new role, especially considering the alternatives. He will help hold down the fort until Wang returns should Mussina and Ponson falter.

Then there is Mariano Rivera, who is enjoying one of the finest seasons of his career. Rivera has yet to blow a save in 24 chances, posting 1.22 ERA, K/9 of 10.76 and 0.68 WHIP. When the Yankees have a lead entering the ninth inning, the game is essentially over.

New York pitchers, though, have not exactly received a boost from their defense behind them. In fact, the Yankees rank 24th in the majors in defensive efficiency, as the arms have made more of an impact in the run prevention equation in the Bronx.

Offensively, the Yankees—despite a lack of production from Robinson Cano and replacement-level center fielder Melky Cabrera—have plenty of firepower. The early-season struggles were more of a result than injuries to players like Alex Rodriguez than anything else.

When healthy, Rodriguez has been a force, hitting 20 homers with a .975 OPS despite a plethora of off-the-field distractions. Jason Giambi helped carry the lineup when A-Rod and a few of his teammates were on the shelf. Giambi, in fact, nearly missed making the All-Star game, recovering from a poor first month to solidify the middle of the New York batting order.

Although Cano needs to improve his approach, the sweet-swinging second baseman always turns it on in the second half. Look for him to pick it up—his .676 OPS is among the lowest marks at his position in the league—down the stretch.

Derek Jeter is a polarizing player, as many analysts think that his defense at shortstop is a major crutch to his team. Jeter has not been himself at the plate, either, so far, frequently grounding into rally-killing double plays. Also, his .282/.347/.392 line is not up to par by Jeter standards, but it would not be a surprise to see him improve the rest of the way as well.

It does not help that left fielder Hideki Matsui and Jorge Posada, sent to the disabled list on Monday, are out indefinitely.

If the double-play duo can get it going, coinciding with a return of Johnny Damon and a potential deal for another impact bat—Richie Sexson, though he may help against lefties, is not going to cut it—at the deadline, the Yankees’ postseason run may not be in jeopardy after all, most likely via the Wild Card.

Tampa Bay Rays: Contenders—

The Tampa Bay Rays’ success has been one of the surprise stories in Major League Baseball. Tampa Bay, which has never won more than 70 games in a single season, is currently leading the division, at 57-40.

Regardless of their pre-break slide, the Rays are still a legitimate contender, backed by their excellent defense.

While the club has made its fair share of errors in the month of July, it still ranks second in the majors in defensive efficiency rating—the rate at which balls put into play are converted into outs. One of the most underrated aspects of its turnaround, Tampa Bay has made marked improvements defensively as a team.

Every Tampa Bay pitcher—from ace Kazmir, the winning pitcher in the All-Star game, to reliever J.P. Howell—has reaped the benefits.

The pitching staff has seen a major upgrade as well.

Matt Garza, Kazmir and Shields are a tough group to face in short series. Shields, however, is the eldest starting pitcher in the Rays’ rotation, at 26 years old. This has caused some writers to pull out the inexperience card, which is definitely a legitimate factor. Perhaps most concerning, though, the majority of Tampa Bay starters are rapidly approaching upon career-high totals in innings pitched. Whether or not the youngsters’ arms can hold up is a huge question mark for Tampa Bay.

If any of young pitchers in the Tampa Bay rotation should falter or go down with an injury, the club does have internal reinforcements down on the farm. Jeff Niemann, who made his major league debut in April, is an option. Not to mention, the potential is there for Tampa Bay to call up David Price, the top pitching prospect in the minors. Price, now in Double-A, has been dominant in his first professional season, going 8-0 with a 1.92 ERA and 62-to-17 K/W ratio in 11 combined starts between Single-A Vero Beach and Double-A Montgomery. Selected by Tampa Bay with the number one overall pick out of Vanderbilt University in the '07 draft, the southpaw will perhaps turn into this year's version of Joba Chamberlain.

The Rays’ relief corps has been more effective as well. This rings especially true when compared to the '07 group, featuring the likes of Shawn Camp and Brian Stokes, which posted the highest bullpen ERA in the past half century.

Offensively, though, Tampa Bay finds itself in the middle of the pack, as it headed into the All-Star break sitting 10th in the majors in on-base percentage (.336), 13th in OPS (.745) and 15th in runs scored, batting average (.260) and slugging percentage (.409).

This is why the Rays have staying power down the stretch, as many players should post improved individual statistics in the second half. Tampa Bay, though, needs its position player stars, from Carl Crawford to Carlos Pena, to improve the rest of the way.

Tampa Bay is much better at home than on the road, with a 19-25 record away from Tropicana Field. The club will need to prove that it can win on the road, especially in places like Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium.

Regardless, the Rays have enough talent already, assuming the pitching can hold up, to make a run. Boston is still the favorite in the division, but Tampa Bay has a deep enough roster to stay in the Wild Card hunt.

To read more about the Rays’ chances, click here.

American League Central:

Before the season, the Central figured to be among the deepest divisions in the majors. The Detroit Tigers made a major upgrade to their roster, adding an impact hitter, Miguel Cabrera, and Dontrelle Willis in a blockbuster deal with the Florida Marlins. Detroit also added Edgar Renteria, shipping prospect Jair Jurrjens to the Atlanta Braves for the veteran shortstop to become the early-season favorite to win the American League.

The Tigers’ poor start in April, however, opened up the division for the Chicago White Sox and the surprise Minnesota Twins.

Chicago White Sox: Contenders—

Chicago, at 58-40, has a .5 game lead over Minnesota. Unlike the Twins, however, the White Sox have staying power as the clear-cut favorite in the division.

Chicago has posted a +78 run differential. On the other hand, M