The American League East is the majors' toughest division.

The Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays were all strong clubs in 2008.

And even the Baltimore Orioles have finally made progress in the rebuilding process, which will only make things more interesting.

Under Peter Angelos, the Orioles refused to rebuild for almost a decade. In the process, the franchise lost a good chunk of its fan base as the new feel of Camden Yards gradually began to wear off. Since Angelos brought on Andy MacPhail in June 2007, however, the club has implemented a realistic long-term plan to eventually compete in the A.L. East.

The only way they, or any club with a similar revenue stream, will be able to sustain success is to build from within, essentially copying the Rays' blueprint. Tampa Bay developed several homegrown products of the farm system, and most of its World Series roster was made up of team-controlled, cheap players under the age of 25.

Baltimore appears to be on the right track now, though, as it is doing exactly that. Angelos and co. have wisely devoted the proper financial resources to improving through the draft, allowing them to take the best talent available the past two years. This, in turn, has enabled them to add some much-needed high-impact, cheap talent and depth to an improved farm system.

MacPhail also acquired a great deal of value last offseason. He pulled off a steal when he shipped Erik Bedard to the Seattle Mariners in exchange for an excellent package of prospects and All-Star reliever George Sherrill and Adam Jones. He also dealt aging shortstop Miguel Tejada to the Houston Astros,  a necessary step that brought in a few nice prospects.

But the Orioles newfound hope starts with franchise-changing catching prospect Matt Wieters, the fifth overall pick of the 2007 draft out of Georgia Tech University. Wieters, a closer during college who was clocked as high as 98 MPH on the bump, is an excellent receiver with a rocket arm and projects to hit for both average and power. He also has excellent make-up and an advanced approach at the plate. Essentially, he is the closest thing to Joe Mauer as they come--except with the chance to hit for more power. He would have been picked earlier if not for signability concerns, with his agent, Scott Boras, reportedly seeking  more than $10-million around draft day.

Wieters is arguably the best prospect in baseball. Baseball America ranked him 12th on their Top 100 prospect list entering the season before he made his pro debut. He lived up the pre-season ranking--and them some--in 2008, making his $6-million signing bonus seem like a bargain.

The switch-hitting backstop came out of the gates swinging in High A ball, where he showed tremendous plate discipline and power potential. He batted .345/.451/.576, with 15 home runs, 40 RBIs and 44 walks in 69 games. He posted a 1.027 OPS, one of the highest totals on the circuit before he was promoted, and 16.1 percent walk rate and .454 wOBA. Quite amazingly, he finished his stint in the Carolina League with 55 runs created, posting a stellar 10.44 RC/27 in 229 at-bats.

Wieters was then promoted to Double-A Bowie, where he continued to swing the bat with authority. He hit a robust .365/.463/625, with 12 homers in 61 games while showing excellent plate discipline. He walked 38 times compared to only 29 strikeouts while producing a 1.088 OPS, 60 runs created, a 12.37 RC/27 and a .476 wOBA in the Eastern League.

Wieters combined to hit .355/.454/.600, with 27 home runs, 91 RBIs and a 1.053 OPS. For his efforts, he was named Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year; he even edged out Tampa Bay pitching prospect David Price. He also received rave reviews on his defense, as he improved his game-calling ability and continued to make strides in his footwork.

Not a bad first impression, huh?

Wieters will have an outside chance to unseat incumbent starter Ramon Hernandez in spring training. Even if he is sent down to Triple-A for some more seasoning and at-bats--like the Rays did with Evan Longoria--look for him to win the job outright at some point in 2009. The power might not translate immediately, but expect the 22-year-old to produce a high average and on-base percentage. If he receives enough at-bats, he will compete with Price for Rookie of the Year.

Baltimore has several other high-level prospects as well, a group highlighted by pitchers Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman.

Arrieta posted a 2.87 ERA and 9.56 K/9 in 20 starts at High-A. He has dominated hitters in the past and has a high ceiling.

Matusz, the top college pitcher selected in the draft, should rise up through the system quickly. A standout at San Diego State, the left-hander throws his fastball in the 93-to-94 MPH range with a nasty sink and has two improving secondary offerings. He did not sign until the August 15 deadline--a major league deal with a $6-million bonus--but has the chance to help out the parent club within a few years.

Tillman, who came over in the Bedard trade, is a promising starting pitching prospect. At age 20, he was impressive at Double-A Bowie in 2008, going 11-4 with a 3.18 ERA in 28 starts. Although he still had some command issues (4.31 BB/9), the 6-5 right-hander struck out 154 and allowed only 10 home runs in 135.2 innings pitched. Given his age, it was a nice showing--especially after his struggles in High-A in the Seattle organization in 2007.

Baltimore still has a long uphill battle ahead, but there is finally light at  the end of the tunnel.  The farm system is in great shape, MacPhail is a competent GM and there are some nice long-term pieces already having success in the majors (Nick Markakis, most notably.)

While a worst-to-first turnaround in '09 is unlikely, the next decade should be much more enjoyable for O's fans.

Free Agent Outlook: With all of this being said, it would be unwise for the Orioles to throw big money at free agents A.J. Burnett and Mark Teixeira. Burnett and Teixeira are both Maryland natives, and signing the pair would offer a short-term boost at the ticket window. In reality, however, giving long-term, mutli-million dollar deals to either player will only prevent them from staying on par with their new (and effective) strategy: building a solid major league product through scouting and player development. Baltimore is more than one or two players away from competing, meaning that the franchise would be better off using their financial resources to sign future early draft picks, the young core already in the organization and to buy out arbitration years for Wieters and other high-level prospects.

Jonah Keri, co-author of Baseball Between The Numbers, was kind enough to answer several questions about the Tampa Bay Rays in an email exchange. Keri is a frequent contributor to ESPN.com (click here for archive) whose writing has appeared in Baseball Prospectus, Playboy, the New York Times, Salon, Slate and many other publications. He also writes a popular stock market column for Investor's Business Daily and offers analysis on everything from college basketball to politics on his website, JonahKeri.com.

Jonah, thanks for taking the time answer some questions.

Reid Brignac has regressed offensively since his breakout performance in the California League back in 2006. Brignac finished with a sub-.300 OBP in his Triple-A debut but has made strides defensively. How does he compare defensively to Jason Bartlett, and does he have a chance to win the job in camp? Or is there any chance that the Rays would deal him this winter, under the impression that Bartlett could man the position until Tim Beckham is ready down the road?

JK: I have no inside knowledge on this front per se, but I could see the Rays dealing Brignac, yes. Andrew Friedman is always looking for value. So whether or not they trade Brignac could depend on whether teams see the Cal League stats and improved defense or focus on the offensive regression of the past couple years. If they keep Brignac, I imagine they'll stick with Bartlett for his defense.

With David Price set to crack the rotation, who do you think will be the odd man out? According to this data, Andy Sonnanstine was considerably more valuable than many people gave him credit for in 2008. With that being said, he seems like the best bet to stay. However, would Edwin Jackson, because of his stuff, bring in more value in return if he is traded? If you had to bet, which pitcher is more likely to be dealt?

JK: Again, I think it will come down to value. If teams are willing to shell out more for Sonnanstine, he could be dealt. If Jackson can fetch more, he might go. I think Jackson would work well in a bullpen role too, so that could be another option. I'd like to see the Rays see if they could get a true impact bat for Scott Kazmir. But it's rare that we see that kind of blockbuster deal. Then again, the Delmon Young deal was a shocker when it happened.

Jeff Niemann is unlikely to ever emerge as a front-line stud at this point, but would be ranked a lot higher in another organization without so much pitching depth. Out of options, where do you see him at this point next offseason?

JK: Another good bullpen candidate. Someone who throws that hard coming downhill with his height...if they just slot Niemann in the pen and stop shuttling him back and forth, he could be a good, cheap option.

Will Mitch Talbot earn a spot in the Rays' bullpen in 2009?

JK: Another who'd be worth a shot. That's the beauty of having so much organizational pitching depth, of course. There's no need to hand out a three-year contract to some random veteran. Save a few million here and a few million there with equivalent talent, and suddenly you've got the cash to, say, buy out David Price's arbitration years in 2010.

The Rays excelled at run prevention in 2008, ranking first in defensive efficiency. What steps will they take, if any, to prevent a regression on this front?

JK: The infield is the strength of the defense, and the Rays are going to bring everyone back there. There's a good chance the team will add a new right fielder. Going after a player who can hit without hurting the defense would help on that front, obviously. That means stay far, far away from Raul Ibanez, for example.

The Boston Red Sox will be back, the New York Yankees seemingly have the chance to sign every big-name free-agent pitcher this offseason and the Toronto Blue Jays return some excellent pitching. Is it possible for the Rays to be even stronger next year, yet still miss out on the playoffs?

JK: Most definitely. The AL East won't stop being a tough division any team soon. The Baltimore Orioles are going to improve too, as prospects like Matt Wieters, Chris Tillman et al come up.

If you could choose between Price and Wieters, who would you take?

JK: Wieters. Much less risk of injury and much more predictable performance for position players than pitchers.

Bartlett received a fifth-place vote for A.L. M.V.P., and even was selected as the Rays' Team M.V.P. by the local chapter of the BBWAA. What is wrong with that picture?

JK: Well plenty, of course. I don't want to take anything away from Bartlett, who was a huge defensive upgrade. Let's just say there were plenty of better MVP candidates. Several on his own team, in fact.

Andrew Friedman has a great track record of exploiting inefficiencies, having found several sleepers like Eric Hinske and Carlos Pena on the cheap in the recent past. With a handful of players due for raises in arbitration and little money to work with, do you have any predictions for what Friedman will do this winter?

JK: I expect the payroll to go up somewhat, given the team likely surpassed its revenue projections for 2008 with its playoff run, and that they're well positioned to contend again in '09. Using internal options for the bullpen would be a good way to defray some of the raises that other players are getting. I do think a Kazmir deal could make some sense, especially if it's for a younger, less expensive, but still talented hitter.

Did Chuck LaMar receive too much credit for the Rays' success during the postseason coverage?

JK: I think he received the right amount of coverage. The focus was mostly on Andrew Friedman, Matt Silverman and Stu Sternberg. Vince Naimoli, Chuck LaMar made plenty of mistakes during their respective tenures. But the old regime did make some contributions to the team that became the '08 Rays. Seemed reasonable to save at least some credit for them.

Do you think B.J. Upton would ever consider signing a similar deal to Evan Longoria, or is he more likely to go year-to-year until free agency?

JK: Well the dollar amounts would be much higher for Upton of course, since he's a fair bit further along on the service time clock than Longoria was when he signed. I imagine Upton will take the best deal available to him. If the Rays make a big, multi-year deal, I'd imagine he's strongly consider it. If the Rays opt not to extend a lucrative long-term offer, Upton will do fine year-to-year.

Has Carl Crawford reached his peak as a player, barring an improvement in his approach on on-base skills? Do you foresee a bounceback when he is fully healthy in '09?

JK: I could see a power spike. He's 27, at a stage in his career where you should expect a small, but gradual erosion in speed. Players of that age, assuming health, do often see power spikes. The biggest level of upside would be an improved batting eye. If Crawford learns to take more pitches, both to work walks and to find pitches to hit in favorable counts, everyone benefits.

Do you think Tampa Bay fans will get to see Wade Davis at some point next year?

JK: I do. How much he's involved will depend on the health of the Rays' pitchers. If everyone's healthy and producing, we might be talking about just a September cup of coffee for Davis--or possibly a David Price-style call-up where they get him on the roster before Sept. 1 as a prelude to a possible spot on the playoff roster.

Since Rocco Baldelli cannot play back-to-back days in the outfield due to his mitochondrial disorder, would it be an unwise decision for Tampa Bay to make him a serious offer and give him a roster spot?

JK: Depends on price, of course. He's a free agent so he can go anywhere he likes. If other teams value him as anything close to the future star he was once thought to be, I imagine the Rays will pass. If teams balk because of Baldelli's health, a contract loaded with playing time and performance incentives would make sense.

Thanks for answering the questions, Jonah.

For those who have not read BBTN, I encourage you to do so. It will change the way you look at the game forever. Also, Keri recently finished the Page 2 guide to MLB Free Agency, which you don't want to miss.

To reach Tyler Hissey, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com

It is now official.

Mike Mussina is hanging up the spikes after a brilliant 18-year career with the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees.

Unlike many other athletes nearing the end, Mussina decided to go out on top. The veteran right-hander enjoyed a renaissance in 2008, producing his first 20-win season to anchor a New York starting rotation decimated with injuries. He posted the second-best ERA+, 132 (league average is 100), during his time with the Yankees. He did this despite having to pitch in front of a defensively challenged team that ranked near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency.

While he no longer had the dominant stuff that enabled him to have such a nice run in Baltimore, Mussina reinvented himself on the mound. His command was exceptional, as he struck out 150 against 30 walks and used his pitching smarts—putting that Stanford brain to work—to cruise through the American League East at 39 years old. A large part of his success came from his ability to get strike one; he did sox 68 percent of the time, one of the highest marks in the majors.

All in all, it was a nice final chapter in the career of one of the best pitchers of this past generation.

Now that Mussina is officially retired, it is appropriate to begin the Hall of Fame discussion.

The debate will surely rage on for the next five years. In my opinion, I think that he is indeed a Hall of Famer—though it is a borderline case.

Mussina was a model of consistency throughout his career. While wins are one of the most overrated stats in baseball—since they are so team-driven—it is hard to ignore the fact that he won at least 10 in every year since 1992. He also picked up more than 15 victories 11 times, collecting 270 for his entire career.

Many voters are myopic in how they evaluate Hall-eligible pitchers. A resume with 300 wins, it seems, is the golden ticket to Cooperstown, and this will certainly influence some votes for Mussina. However, this is an overrated barometer as an entrance to the Hall’s doors. He could have attempted to come back for a few more seasons with his eye on the milestone. In reality, this would decrease his numbers in the stats that really define a pitcher’s value.

Counting stats such as wins are misleading, since they are so context-driven. Often times, many players will extend their careers to reach certain marks in the popular statistical categories like home runs and wins. This negatively affects their rate numbers.

Credit Mussina for not falling into that group. Even still, there are only two eligible pitchers with as many wins who are not in the Hall of Fame—Bert Blyleven and Bobby Matthews.

Mussina, for his career, was 270-153 (.638 winning percentage) with a 3.68 ERA, 123 ERA+ and a 2,813/785 K/BB ratio in 3,562.7 innings pitched. He racked up at least 175 strikeouts nine different times, currently ranking 19th on the all-time career Ks list. Every other pitcher on the list is either headed to or already in Cooperstown. Durability was also an area of strength for him, as he had 11 seasons in which he topped the 200-inning mark.

Working against his case, there is only one pitcher in the Hall of Fame, Red Ruffing (3.80), with a higher career ERA. Only three other pitchers—Ted Lyons (3.67), Jesse Haines and Herb Pennock (3.60)—have their own plaque with a career mark above 3.60.

Outside of seven Gold Glove awards, Mussina lacks some important hardware in his trophy case as well. This also hurts his case. He finished in the top six in Cy Young voting nine times, though, again showing off his consistency. The highest finish of his career was his second-place nod in 1999, when he went 18-7 with a 134 ERA+. He had two top-four finishes as well. He was often overlooked in the Cy voting, though, because he was pitching in a generation that featured three of the greatest starters in baseball history, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez, in his league during the prime stages of his career.

Some writers will be turned off by his lack of any major awards, citing an inability for him to dominate the competition relative to other pitchers in his era. During the mid-90s, though, he had some dominant stretches for the Orioles, despite pitching in a hitter-friendly environment. He was a force in the strike-shortened ’94 season, posting his career-best ERA+, 163, while picking up 16 wins in 24 starts. He then collected 38 wins in the next two years, registering a 143 ERA+ in 1995. He also made five All-Star trips, all during his days with Baltimore.

Mussina was a near-annual Top-10 finisher among league leaders in ERA (ten times), ERA+ (12 times), BB/9 (15 times), K/9 (nine times), shutouts (11 times), strikeouts (11 times), runs saved against average (seven times) and WHIP (11 times). While his greatness and longevity were overshadowed in the 1990s by Clemens and Johnson and the Atlanta Braves’ trio—Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux and John Smoltz—he was one of the most effective right-handers in his day.

Mussina also finished with a better career park-adjusted ERA+ than several Hall of Famers, legends and perennial All-Stars. Among others, the list includes: Bob Feller (122), Babe Ruth (122), Don Drysdale (121), Rollie Fingers (119), Blyleven (118), Tom Glavine (118), Warren Spahn (118), ####lord Perry (117), Dennis Eckersley (116), Preacher Roe (116), Steve Carlton (115), Ferguson Jenkins (115), Phil Niekro (115), Dwight Gooden (111) and Nolan Ryan (111).

Mussina spent his entire career in the American League, pitching in its superior division, the powerful A.L. East, at the height of the steroid era during his stints in Baltimore and New York. Had he not had to face the DH and the superiority of the A.L. for his entire career, his stats would surely be even better. It is hard to ignore that.

The critics often cite that Mussina never won a ring. He just missed the Dynasty stretch in the Bronx, signing a six-year, $88.5-million deal shortly after the Yankees’ last World Series title in 2000. He also lacks a defining postseason moment—Curt Schilling had the bloody sock, each member of the Atlanta group were all brilliant in their 1995 World Series run, ect. Still, despite a 7-9 record, he was effective in the playoffs. In 16 postseason series, he posted a 3.42 ERA and 145-to-33 K/B ratio in 139.2 innings pitched.

Mussina will be unfairly hurt by the fact that he did not win 300 games, only had one 20-win campaign and never won a Cy Young. At some point, though, it seems likely that he will make the drive up I-81 from his Pennsylvania home to Cooperstown to make his acceptance speech.

Moose, as they say, would definitely get my vote.

To reach Tyler Hissey, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com.

The writers got it right.

Albert Pujols was a pretty easy choice for the 2008 National League Most Valuable Player.

In the end, it came down to a two-man race. Pujols edged Ryan Howard, the 2006 M.V.P., in the voting by 61 points to win the award for the second time of his career.

While the right player ended up on top, the vote margin should have been a lot larger. The gap in actual value between the two first basemen was stark.

Pujols posted considerably better numbers in the stats that have the most correlation with producing runs, OBP and slugging percentage. He registered totals of .462 and .653 in these categories, respectively. Howard finished with a less-than-stellar .339 OBP and .543 slugging percentage.

Pujols also finished second in the league in batting average, hitting .357. Howard, on other hand, hit only .251 for the year. At the All-Star break, his line was even worse than that: .234/.324/.508.

Equally as telling, Pujols ranked first in his league with a 1.114 OPS and staggering 190 OPS+. OPS has its flaws as a statistic, but still is a useful way for determining offensive value.

Howard finished 14th with an .881 OPS.

The Philadelphia star garnered some serious consideration for his counting stats and excellent performance in September. He led the league with 46 home runs and 146 RBIs, of course, and delivered a bunch of key hits down the stretch.

The HR, RBI totals and nice finish are the fundamental points in the case for Howard, especially since his team made it to the postseason. Pujols ended up with 37 home runs and 116 RBIs while his team finished in fourth place in the N.L. Central.

However, counting stats are derived from context and do not tell the full story.

Howard had nine more homers than Pujols, but nearly 100 more at-bats. He also had more RBIs, the function of opportunity. With high-OBP players Jimmy Rollins and Chase Ultey setting the table ahead of him, he was given 50 more chances with RISP and nearly 100 with men on base than Pujols.

Pujols was actually the better hitter with RISP, batting .323/.523/.678/.1.201 OPS. Given the same opportunities, he would have easily paced the circuit in RBI. Howard, who was also excellent with men on base, was not quite as good in the same situation: .320/.439/.589/1.028. He also struck out nearly 200 times.

Plus, defense is a major factor here as well, since there is more to baseball than just hitting. Pujols deserved to win the Gold Glove at first base in the N.L., losing out to an undeserving selection in Adrian Gonzalez. He did, however, pick up his third consecutive Fielding Bible Award as the best defender at the position in either league, which is more of an honor. Howard graded out as below average with the glove.

Pujols is a much better all-around player, and it is not even close. He said it himself that a player must play for a contending team to be considered for this award. What he said is not relevant, though, and, in my opinion, was a misguided statement. The man can hit, but is wrong on this front.

Often times, players are unfairly left out of awards like this because of the poor performance of their teammates. The Cardinals were not very good in 2008, but still managed to remain in contention until the end of August. If Pujols was not on the roster, St. Louis would have been out of the race back in June.

Howard played for a winner, because the Phillies' roster was loaded with several other potent hitters and stars. In fact, one could make a strong case that he was not even the most valuable player on his own team, as Brad Lidge, 41-for-41 in save opportunities, and Chase Utley also had tremendous years.

Utley, in particular, seems more worthy of this award when defense is a factor. He graded out as the most effective defender at the keystone while hitting 32 home runs. He also produced a higher batting average, OBP and OPS than Howard at a more important infield position.

Howard was huge in September, hitting .352/.422/.852/1.274 OPS. He also belted 11 homers, several of which were game-changing blasts. He truly picked the best time to get hot while, leaving an image of greatness in the voters' minds when they had to turn in their ballots.

Last time I checked, though, the games in every other month count, too. A win in May does not receive the same attention, but means just as much in the standings as a victory in a pennant race. With this in mind, it is hard to ignore that Howard hovered around the Mendoza line for much of the year and was not a factor at all in April, June and August. In all honesty, there are at least five more deserving candidates.

Pujols was consistent throughout the year. He produced at least a .300 batting average, .400 OBP, .550 slugging percentage and .970 OPS in every month, which is pretty incredible. He also provided several huge hits down the stretch, hitting a sensational .366/.456/.706 in the second half. Essentially, if Pujols and Howard had switched places in spring training, the Phillies would have won the N.L. East by around 10-to-12 games, running away with the division in August instead of having to clinch in the final week.

In other words, if Pujols played for the Phillies, he would have been a near unanimous selection. Why should Pujols be penalized because he did not have better teammates?

The right man won. Looking at objective data, though, the victory should have been more of a landslide.

Imagine what Pujols will be able to do with a healthy elbow.

To reach Tyler Hissey, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com.

Have been too busy to write lately, but there were several recent transactions that I wanted to comment on.

I will begin with the Blockbuster deal of the week. I will touch on the Nick Swisher move and the Marlins’ decision to seemingly trade away all of their arbitration-eligible young players to cut payroll in some future posts.

It was surprising to learn that Billy Beane traded for Matt Holliday earlier this week, but I agree with his thought process.

Holliday has definitely benefited from playing in the thin air in Colorado; he posted a .584 slugging percentage and .997 OPS at Coors Field, .486 and .891 on the road. He is more than a pure product of his home hitting environment, though, and will offer a major offensive upgrade in the Oakland outfield next year.

The A’s were one of the worst-hitting clubs in 2008, ranking near the bottom in batting average, on-base percentage and OPS. They lacked a difference-making hitter, and Holliday could fill that void. As a Scott Boras client due for a big payday in 2009, he is clearly a rental player for the cost-effective A’s.  

Colorado would not have been able to afford him, either, so credit the organization for reeling in a nice return—Carlos Gonzalez, Greg Smith, Huston Street—in exchange for a one-year player.

But Beane made the right choice.

Gonzalez may not have strong enough on-base skills to ever emerge into a star. He has some outstanding tools, but his pitch recognition is subpar (81 K’s, 13 walks in 85 games, with a .273 OBP); he was generally not a good fit in Oakland, which places a major emphasis on patience and plate discipline.

The long-term outcome of this trade is going to come down to Gonzalez, though. He has star potential--possibly a .300 hitter with 20-home run power if he develops, with above-average defense--but is one of those players who is going to have to hit around .300 every year to keep his OBP at an acceptable level. If he can improve his approach, which has left to a lot to be desired since his pro debut in 2003, he could develop into a solid major league outfielder. He has the inside track on the Rockies' starting center field job in sping training, but the organization may send him down to Triple-A for more seasoning. When he takes over that role for good, he will see his power numbers improve by playing in Coors Field.

Smith projects as nothing more than a fifth starter in the majors. The 24-year-old lefty struggled with control problems at times in the minors, and then had command issues as a rookie in ’08 (111-to-87 K/BB).  He can add some value, though, with the ability to keep hitters off balance and an excellent pickoff move. He had some rough patches in ’08 but was much better than his 7-16 record indicates, having posted a 4.16 ERA in 190.1 innings pitched. Moving to Coors Field is going to be a difficult change, as he is predominantly a flyball pitcher. But, like any other pitcher, he will benefit from moving into the weaker league.

Street, who has 94 saves and a 2.88 career ERA, is never going to be an impact closer again. He still has a chance to turn into an effective middle reliever in the right situation. Due to injuries, his stuff is not what it once was, causing him to lose his closer’s role early last spring. But he actually had a better year than he was given credit for: 3.73 ERA, 69-to-18 K/W, .667 opponents’ OPS. Beane feels that late-inning relievers are easy to replace ("closers are made, not born"), and therefore no longer had any use for Street’s services.

The A’s still have the core of their excellent (and cheap) bullpen intact, as well a bunch of promising young pitching prospects who are close to making an impact. They are again expected to excel at run prevention in ’09—with the chance to field an excellent young starting rotation, in addition to an efficient defense. Having added an impact hitter finally added to the middle of the lineup, they may now have just enough offense to realistically compete with the L.A. Angels in the division.

If the A’s ride Holliday and the young pitching to a potential postseason berth in the four-team A.L. West, Beane will be happy to accept a pair of compensation picks in the 2010 draft when the slugger bolts for free agency. If he does not see his team as a contender, though, he will have the opportunity to add a quality group of prospects—most likely a better package than what he gave up here—by dealing him at the trade deadline to a contender.

Either way, Oakland sets itself up to compete immediately next year—though the Angels are still the clear-cut favorites, especially if they bring back Mark Teixeira or sign Manny Ramirez—without facing any serious long-term consequences. It was surprising, certainly, but was a great deal for the A’s.

In my opinion, choosing award selections is one of the most enjoyable parts of writing about baseball (click here to compare my mid-season award picks). And I just could not help myself,  so I decided to update my picks back  from September. Throughout the week, I will offer my analysis on the actual winners as the awards are announced, with the R.O.Y awards coming on Monday. Here are my final picks.

American League

Most Valuable Player:

Justin Morneau is a name commonly being thrown around in the discussion for MVP. Traditional voters are infatuated with one statistic above all others—RBIs—and Morneau finished second in the league, behind Josh Hamilton, with 129. In fact, his high RBI total was the biggest reason why he won the award back in 2006, when there were several stronger options—including his teammate, Joe Mauer. Still, he was a key cog in a Twins’ offense that was tremendous with runners in scoring position (even if some pundits dismiss it as a statistical fluke), hitting .302/.375/.502, with 21 homers. But I still do not think that he deserves the award this year, as Mauer once again was more valuable to his team; Morneau does not even rank in the top 30 in the league in OPS.

Regardless of how you feel about OPS as a stat, an MVP candidate at a corner infield position should at least rank in the Top 10. Period.

Mauer, who won his second batting title, finished the season hitting .328/.413/.451, with 44 extra-base hits, 85 RBIs and 84 walks. When you consider that he also ranks among the premier defensive catchers in the game and has received plus scores on how he has helped handle and worked with a young group of Minnesota pitchers, it makes it all the more impressive. At such a defense-first position, his offensive output was outstanding, though, at 25, he still has room to continue to hit for more power.

To put into simple terms: finding 20-homer, 120-RBI, sub-.900 OPS production from a first baseman like Morneau is much easier to find than a catcher who fields his position well and can post a .400-plus on-base percentage and .864 OPS like Mauer.

Cleveland Indians outfielder Grady Sizemore put together a fine season as well, but will be hurt by the weak underperformance of his teammates. Sizemore, playing an excellent center field, hit .268/.374/.502, with 33 home runs and 90 RBIs. Although he will not get many votes because his team finished so far out of contention, he added as much value to the Indians as any of the aforementioned players. Is it his fault that Trafis Hafner got hurt? Or Victor Martinez? Did he make Fausta Carmona regress so severely? No, all he did was perform, providing top-notch defense and an .876 OPS and 101 runs scored. The young star places fourth on my make-believe ballot, and perhaps deserves to be ranked higher.

Dustin Pedroia, the diminutive second sacker for the Boston Red Sox, is a fine candidate as well. Although he is generously listed at 5’9—he is closer to 5’6— Pedroia, who finished second in the league in hitting, performed like a 6’4, 220-pound slugger, posting a line of .326/.376/.493 and bashing 17 home runs.

Pedroia also made tremendous improvements in his defense at a keystone position in every defensive metric out there, even winning his first Gold Glove. And when the injury bug bit the Boston lineup, he picked up the slack to help the Red Sox hold their strong lock on the AL Wild Card, delivering several huge hits down the stretch while playing his excellent defense at second base. Like Mauer, he posted an impressive OPS number (.869) considering his defensive position. Although he would not get my vote, he seems like the likely winner, since his on-field production comes close to matching the story.

Still, in my opinion, another Boston player is more deserving—Kevin Youkilis.

Youkilis’ .958 OPS was good for fourth in the AL. Unlike the players who finished ranked ahead of him—Milton Bradley (only 414 at-bats), Quentin and Alex Rodriguez), he has a realistic chance to take home the honors. Justifiably so, too. He finished the year hitting .312/.390/.569, with 29 home runs and 115 RBIs, adding to the legend of the “Greek God of Walks.” Not only did he post strong offensive numbers, he played excellent defense at first and third base (filling in when Mike Lowell went down) and was a constant presence in the Red Sox’s lineup when several of his teammates were on the disabled list. When compared to Morneau, he added substantially greater real value offensively while giving his club better glove work and actually hit better with RISP.

Honorable mention also goes to Bradley, who led the league in OBP and OPS but missed too much time due to injury, Hamilton, who paced the circuit with 130 RBIs, and Rodriguez.

My picks:

1. Kevin Youkilis

2. Joe Mauer

3. Dustin Pedroia

4. Grady Sizemore

Cy Young:

Unlike the MVP race, this was a pretty easy choice here. Cliff Lee went from a demotion to the minors to the best pitcher in the league in less than a calendar year. Lee was truly brilliant, posting a 22-3 W/L mark, the lowest ERA (2.54) in the AL and a ridiculous 170-to-34 K/W ratio. The Cleveland Indians left-hander proved that his early-season success—he went 12-2 with a 2.31 ERA before the All-Star break, earning the start at Yankee Stadium—was not a fluke. He was nearly perfect in the second half by winning 10 decisions as Cleveland played its way to a respectable finish. To sum up his slam-dunk case: he finished the season ranked first in the league in ERA, winning percentage (.880) and wins, second in complete games (4), innings pitched (223.1) and WHIP (1.11), and ninth in strikeouts.

Although Lee is the clear-cut winner, there is a decent case to be made for Roy Halladay as well. Halladay, one of three pitchers in the league to win 20 games, anchored a Toronto Blue Jays pitching staff that finished with the lowest group ERA on the circuit. As he does every year, it seems, he continued to put up zeroes on the scoreboard in Toronto, posting a 2.78 ERA in a league-leading 246.0 innings pitched.

While CC Sabathia threw his share of complete games for the Milwaukee Brewers, Doc Halladay has him beat. Quite amazingly considering how few starters go a full nine innings these days, he finished the season with nine complete games on his own. There are a lot of teams that would be happy to have that total dispersed among the entire starting rotation, let alone one pitcher. Pitching in the ridiculously competitive East division, he also led the league in WHIP (1.05), using his excellent control and command to shut offenses down every fifth day.

Jon Lester had an outstanding season for Boston, going 16-6 with a 3.21 ERA and 152-to-66 K/W ratio. Lester, who threw a no-hitter against the Kansas City Royals in May, finished fourth in the league in ERA and winning percentage and seventh in innings pitched while limiting opponents to a .256/.318/.368 line. The 24-year-old southpaw, who emerged as the new ace of the Red Sox’s staff, has a chance to take home some votes.

Credit also must be given to Mike Mussina, who joined the 20-win club for the first time of his potentially Hall-of-Fame career. Mussina had one of his best seasons ever to anchor a New York rotation decimated with injuries, going 20-9 with a 3.37 ERA for a defensively challenged Yankees team.

Lester’s teammate, Daisuke Matsuzaka, should garner some votes as well, after finishing 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA. Matsuzaka, however, consistently struggled with his command, walking 94 in 167.2 innings, and does not deserve to be seriously considered.

Closer Francisco Rodriguez picked up 62 saves in 69 chances for the Los Angeles Angels, breaking Bobby Thigpen’s previous single-season mark of 57. Lost in the media hype, though, he also set the benchmark for save chances, a function of opportunity. Due to the Angels’ weak offense and emphasis on small-ball, the right-hander was given a greater number of opportunities to hold a lead in low-scoring games than any other pitcher in baseball history.

Among major league relievers who registered more than 40.0 innings pitched, Rodriguez did not finish in the top 15 in ERA (19th) or K/9 (19th), top 40 in opponents’ OPS (42), top 60 in WHIP (69) or top 100 in K/W ratio. The flame throwing right-hander, who posted an opponents’ line of .216/.314/.316, led the league in only two statistics, saves and save opportunities. While he grabbed headlines for breaking the record, it is worth mentioning that he was the only pitcher who was given enough chances to even come within four saves of the previous all-time mark—Jose Valverde finished second in SVO with 52. for these reasons, there are about four relievers who should be considered ahead of him.

My picks:

1. Cliff Lee

2. Roy Halladay

3. Jon Lester

4. Mike Mussina

Rookie of the Year:

Evan Longoria is perhaps an easier choice than Lee in the Cy Young category. After Longoria was promoted to the Rays in early April, he quickly emerged as one of the best young third baseman in the game. Although he missed some time on the disabled down the stretch, he put up excellent numbers for a rookie in only 131 games: 27 home runs, 85 RBIs, .874 OPS. Not to mention, he played excellent defense at third base, allowing Akinori Iwamura to move across the diamond to second. His arrival, combined with a few other defensive changes, enabled the Rays to make the move from worst-to-first in team defense. The Rays’ run prevention efforts, in fact, are the ultimate reason why the Rays won the AL East for the first time in their 11-year history.

Longoria’s play at third base was a major reason why the club converted more balls put into play into outs than any other team in the majors, as the Rays finished the regular season with the best defensive efficiency rating. Throw in a slash stats line of .272/.343/.531 and a lot of big hits along the way, and you get Tampa Bay’s real MVP—with apologies to Jason Bartlett—and the easy choice for top rookie.

Fans in Chicago probably have a different take, though, as Alexei Ramirez has exceeded all expectations with his first-year performance for the White Sox. Ramirez, a nifty defender in his own right and a sensational athlete, belted 21 homers, including a rookie record five grand slams, and 77 RBIs However, he struggled to get on base enough (.317 OBP, only 18 walks ) and was not nearly as productive as Longoria.

Armando Galarraga deserves some love here, too. While Dontrelle Willis was seemingly walking nearly ever hitter, Gary Sheffield was sitting near replacement-level, the Tigers’ pitching staff was in shambles, Carlos Guillen showed that he could not handle either corner infield spot defensively, Brandon Inge played out of position and Justin Verlander was busy dropping 17 decisions, the disappointing version of the 2008 Tigers had one pleasant surprise in Galarraga. The rookie right-hander went 13-6 with a 3.68 ERA, 126 punchouts and a 1.19 WHIP in 28 starts.

Staying in the Central, rookie infielder Mike Aviles had a fine debut season for the Royals. Aviles batted .325//354/.480, with 10 home runs and 53 RBIs in 419 at-bats, providing one of the few offensive bright spots in Kansas City. At 27, he, is obviously old for a rookie and is unlikely to turn into a superstar. Still, an .834 OPS for a shortstop is quite impressive, and will be difficult for some voters to overlook.

A case could be made for Joba Chamberlain and Jacoby Ellsbury, pre-season favorites, as well, in addition to Minnesota speedster Denard Span and Oakland Athletics reliever Brad Ziegler, whose scoreless innings streak provided one of the year’s highlights.

My picks:

1. Evan Longoria

2. Alexei Ramirez

3. Armando Galarraga

4. Joba Chamberlain

Manager of the Year:

Ron Gardenhire did a tremendous job, yet again, getting the Twins to play hard day in, day out, helping his team exceed all expectations with the departure of Torii Hunter and Johan Santana. My pick, though, is Joe Maddon, who instituted a culture of winning into the Rays’ clubhouse. Every move, it seems, worked out for Maddon during the regular season as the Rays went from the joke of the league to AL East champions. He did a heck of a job, really, and was able to motivate his players to buy into the 9=8 concept—nine players play together as a team to become one of the eight playoff teams. Well, though he received some tremendous help by a front office that provided him with a much-improved roster designed to shine at run prevention, he did exactly that.

My picks:

1. Joe Maddon

2. Ron Gardenhire

3. Terry Francona

4. Mike Scioscia

National League:

Most Valuable Player:

The term valuable is interpreted loosely when it comes to baseball, and many people think that a player must play for a contending team to garner attention for the award. After all, a last-place club could still finish last even if their star first baseman did not mash 50 homers, right? I do not necessarily agree with that mindset, though, as often times too many legitimate candidates miss out on winning awards like this because of the poor performances of their teammates.

With that being said, it is hard not to seriously think about naming CC Sabathia the MVP in the National League after his masterful performance in the second half. Although Sabathia did not spend even half of a season in the league, he was sensational (insert hyperbolic word here) in his new surroundings, going 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA. Not only that, he practically resurrected the Brewers’ quest to reach the postseason for the first time since 1982 on his own. If Sabathia did not provide so many quality innings for Milwaukee, it is hard to imagine the Brew Crew even sniffing the Wild Card down the stretch. Sure, he was only with his team from July on, and was only able to pitch every (for him, third perhaps) fifth day, but the larger-than-life lefty was otherworldly.

Although the Brewers parted ways with top hitting prospect Matt LaPorta, the return on investment—just by ending the playoff drought—was well worth it, as Sabathia turned in one of the best post All-Star break runs in baseball history. I would not vote for him, but he deserves to at least be in the discussion.

Ditto for Manny Ramirez, who had a similar effect on the Los Angeles Dodgers. After coming over from Boston at the trade deadline, Ramirez singlehandedly transformed Los Angeles’s lineup from average to dynamic. He posted Nintendo-like numbers in L.A., hitting .396/.489/.743, for a whopping 1.232 OPS, with 17 homers and 53 RBIs. As ugly as his departure from the Red Sox was, he was also reportedly a much better teammate, too, helping to add a new sense of calm in the Dodgers’ clubhouse.

Ramirez made the difference as the Dodgers' young talent began to flourish, helping Joe Torre’s club win the weak N.L West division with 84 wins. However, Man-Ram simply did not play in enough games in the N.L. to get my vote, as even Sabathia practically had a month on him. Unfortunately, his insane postseason performance does not count for consideration in this award, which obviously hurts his case.

My choice, then, is Albert Pujols, the best all-around player in the majors all year. Pujols helped the Cardinals remain in contention until around 10 days left in the season, which exceeded all pre-season expectations for the organization. In perhaps a typical Pujols year, he finished with a .357/.462/.653 line, 37 home runs, 116 RBIs and 104 walks to pace the game with a 1.114 OPS. Not only that, he played great defense at first base, which enabled him to win his third consecutive Fielding Bible Award at the position. Without his bat in the lineup for 148 games, St. Louis would have fallen out of contention by July. He will lose out on votes because his team missed out on the playoffs, but, as the most productive offensive contributor in the game, he made more of an impact for his team. Period.

Ryan Howard led the league with 48 home runs and 146 RBIs, getting hot at the right time (1.274 OPS in September) to help the Philadelphia Phillies to their second consecutive NL East championship (and eventual World Series championship). But, the games in the first half count too, and I have a difficult time voting for a player with a .339 on-base percentage. Pujols has the edge in the stats that really count, played much better defense and would be the slam dunk pick if he had better teammates.

While I am a big Howard guy, he, like Morneau in the other league, did not rank in the top 10 in the league in OPS or VORP, and was not even the most valuable member of the Phillies.

That honor goes to Chase Utley, who played sensational defense at second base and hit .292/.380/.535, with 33 home runs and 104 RBIs. He finished with one of the highest VORP—Value Over Replacement Player, which is certainly not a perfect stat and does not account for defense—totals ever by a second baseman, 62.2, which was nearly 30 points higher than Howard’s mark. He also ranked as the most effective defensive player in the majors, at any position, in John Dewan’s plus/minus system.

Still, Pujols added the most real value on the diamond, and gets my vote.

My picks:

1. Albert Pujols

2. Chase Utley

3. Manny Ramirez

4. CC Sabathia

Cy Young:

Again, though he only made 17 starts in the NL, Sabathia will garner some votes for carrying the Brewers on his back and pitching them into the postseason.

Brandon Webb, because of his high wins total, is perhaps the favorite. Webb, Mr. Consistency, put up another fine year on the mound: 22-7 record, 3.30 ERA, 183-to-65 K/W ratio, 1.20 WHIP. The 2006 Cy Young struggled at an inopportune time down the stretch, though, which may hurt his case. Yet, along with Dan Haren, he deserves credit for helping the Arizona Diamondbacks stay competitive, even when things got ugly for that offense.

Although either pitcher cannot match the win total belonging to Webb, Tim Lincecum of the San Francisco Giants and Santana of the New York Mets are more deserving of the award, in ’08. Again, this proves why wins/loss record is a misleading, ineffective method for judging a pitcher’s overall effectiveness. Seriously, it is 2008, and we know better.

Lincecum, pitching for the lowly Giants, went 18-5 with a 2.62 ERA, second to Santana, and a league-best 256 strikeouts. Scouts may fear that he will break down eventually, as his mechanics are certainly unorthodox. But since he has come into the league, he has been one of the most successful starters in the majors, and it all came together for him this season as he struck out 10.35 batters per nine innings and limited opponents to a .223 batting average and .614 OPS. For the traditionalists who are infatuated with wins, because baseball is a “team game” they say, consider this: Lincecum left the game with the lead on five different occasions, destined for a win, yet saw his bullpen fail to hold it. Team game, indeed.

Still, my pick is Santana, who came over to the Mets in the blockbuster trade this offseason and then went on to sign a huge deal to stay in New York. Boy, did he earn his paycheck, for year one at least? While New York missed out on the playoffs, again, by blowing a late-season lead, do not point any fingers at the dominant southpaw. He finished with the lowest ERA (2.53) on the circuit, striking out 206 in 234.1 innings pitched. While his 16-7 record is nothing too sexy, go back and read the preceding paragraph. The man pitched well enough to win 20 games, easily, and saw a mediocre bullpen, featuring the likes of Luis Ayala, Scott Schoenweis and Brian Stokes, blow several of his leads.

Even though the New York media was calling Santana’s first year in Queens a bust at the break—despite his 2.84 ERA—he shut them up with a great second half, going 7-0 with a 2.37 ERA and .231 opponents’ batting average in his final 14 starts. He delivered in big spots, too, like on the final Saturday of September, when he saved the Mets’ season (at that point) by putting together a complete game victory on three days’ rest. So, with sincere apologies to Lincecum, Santana gets my vote, as he did not have the benefit of pitching in the weak-hitting West.

An under-the-radar candidate deserving of honorable mention is Brad Lidge, who was by far the most dominant closer in the league. Lidge was invaluable to the Phillies, going a perfect 41-for-41 in save opportunities and posting a 1.95 ERA. K-Rod may be getting the press, but Lidge had the better campaign—he just had fewer save chances. Just ask the Mets how valuable a stud relief pitcher can be. When Billy Wagner went down, it seems, so did the season for the Metropolitans. So, though he is a dark horse, do not be surprised when he gets some votes.

My picks:

1. Johan Santana

2. Tim Lincecum

3. Brad Lidge

4. Brandon Webb

Rookie of the Year:

Geovany Soto has a better chance of winning this award than Vincent Chase has of getting some in the next episode of Entourage. Soto, the first rookie catcher to start the All-Star game for the National League, was perhaps the most valuable player for the team that posted the best regular season in the N.L. Playing a defense-first position, he batted .285/.364/.504, with 23 bombs, an .868 OPS and 86 RBIs. For that production, while putting on the mask for 131 games at catcher and handling the Cubs’ staff at a premium spot on the field, he deserves some MVP consideration as well. The best years area head for the 25-year-old stud as he continues to establish himself as the best offensive catcher in the league.

Like Longoria in the other league, Soto is the clear-cut pick here. But Joey Votto comes in second, in my opinion. Despite receiving less fan fare and attention than his fellow rookie teammate on the Cincinnati Reds, Jay Bruce, Votto put together a nice first campaign: .297/.368/.506, with 24 homers and 84 RBIs. The 25-year-old first baseman, with Bruce, is one of the key pieces of a nice young nucleus that the Reds have to build around for the future.

Jair Jurrjens had a nice debut season on the mound for the Atlanta Braves, going 13-10, with a 3.68 ERA.

Soto is the only pick for this award, though, and perhaps has a chance to win the award unanimously.

My picks:

1. Geovany Soto

2. Joey Votto

3. Jair Jurrjens

4. Jay Bruce

Manager of the Year:

Part of me wants to give this award to Joe Torre, who left New York for the West Coast and helped guide a diverse group of youngsters and veterans to the NL West title. But, it is exactly that: the Dodgers, who gave up so many prospects in pre-deadline deals, absolutely needed to win the inferior West. If not, the season would have been labeled an absolute failure. To their credit, they did what they had to do, ending up as the best of the worst after acquiring Ramirez, who helped them unseat Arizona for the title in the majors' weakest division.

My pick, though, goes to Charlie Manuel, who led the Phillies to another division championship. Manuel may not come off as the most intellectual baseball manager, but he did the most important thing that a manager can do: earn his players’ respect. And, from making an example out of Jimmy Rollins after he failed to run out a ground ball earlier this summer to keeping the clubhouse loose, he got the best out of his players in 2008. If the voters, who had to turn in their ballots in before the playoffs started, could account for playoff performance, the World Series-winning manager would easily take home the honor.

Fredi Gonzalez and Manny Acta are also excellent managers, though they were not exactly left with talented rosters to work with. A manager really needs the proper players—as a carpenter needs supplies—to ever have a chance of competing at this level. Which is why bad teams can have great managers sometimes, and great teams can have bad managers.

In Chicago, the Cubs have both in Lou Piniella. While the Cubs have a huge payroll, a great market, and a talented club, Piniella once again did a fine job, steering Chicago to the best record in the NL through 162 regular season games.

Still, Manuel gets my vote. (Note: he was my selection on September 29 as well.)

My picks:

1. Charlie Manuel

2. Lou Piniella

3. Fredi Gonzalez

4. Joe Torre

To voice your disagreements with my picks, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com

Ken Rosenthal, as usual, provides some great information from the rumor mill in his latest column.

Rosenthal says that the normally tight-fisted Oakland Athletics will have payroll flexibility this offseason. Billy Beane, great at finding players undervalued in the market, is reported to have around $40-million to work with, in fact.

With some money available, the report says, Oakland could be a sleeper candidate to land free-agent shortstop Rafael Furcal. Furcal, who is rumored to be looking for a four-year deal, is injury prone, and is coming off a season in which he was productive, but played in only 36 games for the Los Angeles Dodgers in the regular season.

The switch-hitting shortstop, despite one rough inning in the NLCS, is a fine defensive shortstop, with a hose for an arm. For this reason, he would fit right in with the current mold of the A’s, who posted one of the highest defensive efficiency ratings and lowest staff ERAs in the majors after Beane built his 2007 roster, in a clear rebuilding year, with excelling at run prevention as his primary goal.

Beane, of course, is the face of the on-base percentage movement after the release of Moneyball. However, OBP is no longer an undervalued commodity, and its days of being a clear inefficiency in the market for the shrewd GM to exploit are long gone. Due to these reasons, Oakland actually ranked last in the American League in on-base percentage, which is not a reflection of a change in philosophy in the front office.

Furcal, 31, would help cure these woes, providing a solid leadoff hitter for an offense that finished 27th in the majors in runs scored. While it is a small sample size, he posted a line of .357/.439/.573 in 143 at-bats while carrying the Dodgers on his back in the month of April.

Beane would definitely welcome Furcal and his .352 career on-base clip with open arms, at the right price. The organization acquired a bounty of prospects after dealing away Dan Haren and Nick Swisher last winter, but the farm system is top heavy with strong pitching prospects.

Even with a short supply of impact offensive players, however, it would be surprising if Furcal does remain in the state to sign with the A’s. Beane is unlikely to meet his current asking price, in length of years, given the risk associated with locking an injury-prone player to a long-term deal.

The veteran executive will likely look to find cost-efficient, freely available talent to help alleviate the offensive issues in Oakland, rather than splurging on a Type A Free Agent and losing draft picks.

Plus, incumbent starter Bobby Crosby is due to make more than $5-million in 2009, and offers a clear reminder of how injuries can devastate a club. Crosby, who (along with Eric Chavez), has been plagued by health issues himself since signing a lengthy contract with the club in the aftermath of his A.L. Rookie of the Year award back in 2004. He has been a major bust, due to injuries, and has a terrible career slash stats line of .239/.306/.380. The 28-year-old infielder is coming off a season in which he posted an awful .296 on-base percentage and .645 OPS.

Furcal, therefore, would clearly be an upgrade, but a deal remains unlikely given the organization’s track record and unwillingness to lock up multimillions into single players.

With that being said, Rosenthal is right. Beane is likely to make a rare splash in the free agent market—just not for such a high-profile player. The man knows what he is doing, though, and, with all of the prospects acquired in the past 12 months, the franchise seems poised to unseat the Los Angeles Angels as the team to beat in the A.L. West well into the next decade either way.

To reach Tyler Hissey, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com.

Nate McLouth had a breakout season for the Pittsburgh Pirates, batting .276/.356/.497, with 26 homers and 94 RBIs. McLouth, who earned the Pirates’ starting center field job in spring training, made his first All-Star team while emerging as a legitimate offensive force. In 152 games, he collected 46 doubles and four triples, scored 113 runs and posted a solid .853 OPS to lead his team in every major offensive statistical category.

McLouth played all three outfield positions throughout the year, serving as the only regular outfielder on the Pirates to remain with the club through the full season. Jason Bay and Xaxier Nady, of course, were dealt to contenders in exchange for prospect packages before the trade deadline. He spent the majority of his time in center, though, and finished second among major qualifying major league outfielders with a .997 fielding percentage. In 1300.1 innings, he collected 380 putouts, sixth among center fielders in all of baseball, while making only one error and compiling five assists.

For these numbers, it seems, the coaches and managers rewarded McLouth, 27, with his first career Rawlings Gold Glove Award on Wednesday afternoon. He joined Carlos Beltran of the New York Mets and Shane Victorino of the Philadelphia Phillies as Gold Glove recipients for outfielders in the National League. Unlike Beltran, though, he did not deserve the award, and, in all honesty, should not have been seriously considered.

In John Dewan’s plus/minus defensive rankings—perhaps the most valuable metric used to evaluate defensive value—McLouth ranked as the least effective defender at center field in the majors. He finished with a -40 rating, which was the worst total among all outfielders overall as well.

Beltran, on the other hand, finished with a +24 rating. The New York star, who was recognized by Bill James in the 2008 Fielding Bible Awards, had a fine year roaming the gaps in the final year at Shea Stadium.

It gets worse for McLouth, though. According to Baseball Prospectus’ defensive data, he was 17 runs worse than the average major league center fielder. He also finished 11th in range factor and 17th in zone rating.

Essentially, McLouth has terrible range, and did not convert as many balls hit into a certain area as nearly every other player at the center field position. Which is what matters most. While he was sure handed in the plays that were hit near where he was positioned, he had a difficult time getting to balls out of his zone.

Clearly, the coaches and managers relied on three things to make their decision here: subjective opinions (what they saw with their eyes, in the brief encounters that they had against the Pirates), his offensive output (which should not play a factor in the decision process for a fielding award) and traditional (and meaningless, on their own sometimes) statistics like fielding percentage, which does not account for balls that certain players cannot get to due to poor range.

The Gold Glove award system has lost a lot of its prestige in recent years. First, there was the voters' egregious error during the Rafael Palmeiro fiasco in 1999, when the Texas Rangers slugger played in only 28 games at first base yet somehow managed to take home the prize at his position.

Then, in several instances in the past decade, many outstanding offensive players, and mediocre fielders, earned the hardware based on their offensive output and reputation. Russell Martin, the Los Angeles Dodgers’ backstop, provides a recent example, in 2007, when Yadier Molina was so far superior behind the plate that it was almost comical.

Yet again, even though there is still not perfect metric out there to evaluate defense yet, objective data has proven to be more useful than relying on subjective images and overrated traditional stats.

And, with every McLouth gaffe, winning a Gold Glove Awards become less of an honor on a player’s resume.

Full List of Gold Glove Winners:

P: Greg Maddux, Los Angeles Dodgers—Although Maddux is terrible at holding runners on, he fields his position like a seasoned infielder. Expected to retire, this marks his 18th, and likely final, Gold Glove award, which is by far a major league record. The 42-year-old future Hall of Famer finished second in all of baseball, behind only Kenny Rogers of the Detroit Tigers, in John Dewan’s plus/minus system (+14).

C: Yadier Molina, St. Louis Cardinals—Molina deserved to win the award in 2007 as well, but the voters do deserve some credit for finally getting it right this year. The 26-year-old backstop, who recently won the Bill James Fielding Bible Award and was named the best defensive catcher in the majors, was one of five first-time winners.

1B: Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres—Gonzalez had an incredible season offensively for the Padres, posting an excellent .871 OPS in spacious Petco Park. For this reason, he tends to get overlooked overall while playing in a small market. As far as this award goes, however, he is not the most deserving candidate for the first base position in the National League. Again, it seems, his fielding percentage (.996, which tied for first in the Senior Circuit, with the most chances) played a huge factor here, allowing Gonzalez to win his first Gold Glove.

But some under-the-radar guy named Albert Pujols actually should have won the award. Pujols, a three-time Fielding Bible Award winner, ranked among leaders at the position in nearly every defensive category, advanced to traditional. A sensational athlete, he posted a +20 ranking in the Dewan system, second in the game at first base behind Mark Teixeira, and the highest range factor and zone rating at the position in his league. Throw in Pujols’ 1.013 OPS and a likely M.V.P award and it truly is difficult to make a case for anyone else as the best player in baseball at this point.

2B: Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati Reds—No complaints here, as Phillips is arguably the majors’ best defensive second baseman. One could make the case for Mark Ellis or Chase Utley, but the former shortstop was the lone bright spot in the Reds’ atrocious infield defense. Like Gonzalez, McClouth and Molina, he is a first-time winner. Unless he moves back to shortstop, his original position while rising up the ladder as a prospect in the Cleveland Indians’ farm system, adding Gold to his trophy case may become an annual occurrence for him.

3B: David Wright, New York Mets—Wright gets a lot of flack in New York for his errant throws, but that unfair criticism is seriously misguided. While there were not any sensational wizards at the hot corner in the N.L. this year as most of the third base leaders in the Dewan system played in the other league, the Mets star infielder is a decent choice.

However, Pedro Feliz, Troy Glaus, Chipper Jones and Ryan Zimmerman would all be solid options here as well.

SS: Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia Phillies—Rollins is the best defensive shortstop in the game, with soft hands, excellent range and a plus throwing arm. With his presence at short, Pedro Feliz at third base and Utley at second, the Phillies have a solid defensive infield, even with Ryan Howard at first base. Bill James and co. recently rewarded the switch-hitting SS the Fielding Bible Award as well. He ranked first among N.L. shortstops in fielding percentage (.988), third in range factor (4.52) and second in zone rating (.855).

Rollins also finished first among all major league shortstops with a +23 ranking in the Dewan system. Case closed.

OF: Carlos Beltran, New York Mets—Best defensive center fielder in the game.

OF: Nate McLouth, Pittsburgh Pirates—For those who have a poor short-term memory, reread the main story above.

OF: Shane Victorino, Philadelphia Phillies—Victorino is solid, with above-average range (.899 zone rating, second among CF behind Corey Patterson), but this decision is a bit questionable as well. Cody Ross, of the Florida Marlins, and Chris Young, the center fielder for the Arizona Diamondbacks, each ranked higher in Dewan’s system. Young, in particular, seems more deserving.

To reach Tyler Hissey, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com

—According to Buster Olney, the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees are expected to engage in a heated battle for Mark Teixeira’s services. While there is speculation that the Red Sox are only intending to drive the Yankees’ price up by inquiring about the switch-hitting slugger, Olney believes that Theo Epstein and co. have a legitimate interest.

Teixeira has excellent on-base skills and power, which would fit perfectly in the middle of the Boston lineup. The Red Sox, who led the league with a .358 team on-base percentage, could shift incumbent first baseman Kevin Youkilis to third base. Youikilis, who is a realistic M.V.P. candidate, is one of the majors’ best defensive first baseman, but came up in the minors on the left side of the infield and did an admirable job filling in for Mike Lowell at third base down the stretch. There is no telling if Lowell will ever regain his 2007 form again, and he may be a likely trade candidate if Boston does indeed sign Teixeira.

—Jake Peavy is not the only member of the San Diego Padres on the trading block. According to the San Diego Union-Tribune, the organization is exploring trade offers for shortstop Khalil Greene, who hit only .213/.260/.339 and struck out 100 times in 105 games for the Padres this season. Greene, who is due to make $6.5-million next season, will become a free agent after 2009. He might be a good buy-low option for a club in need of a shortstop, anyway, and a change of scenery might be in his best interest.

As Tom Krasovic writes, “Relations between Greene and the Padres probably are not ideal. After Greene fractured his left hand on July 30, when he wacked a storage chest at Petco Park following a foulball of the shin and his 100th strikeout, the Padres stopped paying his salary, according to the players union. A dispute between the Padres and the union ensued, and though the Padres eventually paid Greene his remaining salary, the club filed a grievance in an attempt to recoup up to $1.47 million in salary. Greene left the club some two weeks before the season ended.”

According to Krasovic, the Baltimore Orioles, Cincinnati Reds and Detroit Tigers have all expressed interest.

The Reds’ team defense was atrocious in 2008, ranking 29th in the majors in defensive efficiency—the rate at which batted balls hit into play are converted into outs. Adding a sure-handed defender at such an important defensive position potentially could do wonders. The Reds could also move Brandon Phillips, one of the majors’ best defensive second baseman, to his natural position, shortstop, if they do not make a deal to upgrade at the position.

The Tigers, after the failed Edgar Renteria experiment, are also in need of a starting shortstop.

The Padres, however, do not have an immediate replacement at short, and will likely address the hole on the market if Greene is indeed dealt.  

—Will the Reds go from worst-to-first in 2009, following in the Tampa Bay Rays’ footsteps? John Erardi of the Cincinnati Enquirer is not so sure.

  —In a post the other day, I briefly touched upon the recently released 2008 Fielding Bible Awards. Well, I forgot to mention that the panelists voted Derek Jeter as the worst defensive shortstop in the majors, as mentioned in this New York Post article.