According to Ken Rosenthal, the Tampa Bay Rays have had discussions about Jermaine Dye and are one of several teams “balking” at the reported asking price.

Rosenthal:

“The White Sox are asking teams for a young starting pitcher plus additional players for right fielder Jermaine Dye. The Mets, Rays and Phillies are among the teams balking at such a price.”

Although the Rays have a need for a right-handed bat in a right field/DH-type role, Dye does not seem like a great fit. He had a nice bounce back season for the Chicago White Sox, batting .292/.344/.541/.885 OPS, with 34 home runs to help lead his team to the postseason. However, he is due around a little under $11.5-million in 2009, the last year of his current contract. This means that he is essentially a rent-a-player who is not exactly stellar defensively and would hurt the Rays’ excellent run prevention efforts. Considering the price, his bad knees and age (34), he is not the type of player who Andrew Friedman would seriously consider.

True, Dye is only two year’s removed from an MVP-caliber season in which he posted career highs in OBP (385), OPS (1.006), slugging percentage (.622) and wOBA (.412). He also put to rest any concerns from his dismal ’07 campaign (.338 wOBA), posting a .371 clip.

Regardless, Dye is likely to decline and would not be a good fit in the turf at Tropicana Field. In Bill James’ projections for ’09, he has Dye putting together a line .270/.334/.491, with a .357 wOBA. This, factoring in defense, would not be that much of an upgrade, anyway, considering the financial implications and cost of prospects.

Rosenthal continues:

“One potentially interested executive said his team was concerned that Dye batted only .210 with runners in scoring position and two outs last season — 36 points below the American League average.”

This was interesting to me. Of all the red flags, why focus on this? Dye certainly struggled with RISP and two outs, batting .210/.269/.306. Still, that line was based on 62 at-bats, which is not exactly a hefty sample size. The thought process of that unnamed executive is undoubtedly concerning, and, from where I am standing, makes it unlikely that they work for the Rays.

Rosenthal also touches on some other rumors regarding Tampa Bay, which is looking to upgrade at DH. Given the current state of the economy, he says, the Rays could end up finding a bargain in a short-term deal with one of the bigger free-agent bats available. One of the names listed is Jason Giambi, whose name also surfaced in a recent New York Post article (though it was essentially a rumor created by a single writer). It is unlikely that the Rays will be able to afford Giambi, who quietly put together a nice performance in his final go-around with the New York Yankees. The left-handed hitting slugger posted a .373 OBP, .502 slugging percentage and a 128 OPS+ while hitting 32 home runs. He finished with a .372 wOBA as well, as he continued to do three things consistently: draw a bunch of walks, hit home runs and strikeout.

With that being said, Giambi would provide a tremendous boost to a Tampa Bay lineup that was actually less productive than in 2007—when they finished in last place in the division. His on-base skills would be a welcome addition, and he would not have to play first base as frequently as he did in New York with Gold Glover Carlos Pena returning.

Still, a deal is unlikely. The Rays will wait to see what the market dictates before they make a move, if any. Barring a weak demand for Giambi, his agent will likely generate a multi-year, multi-million dollar deal that would obviously cancel out the Rays as a potential suitor. Plus, he is left-handed.

Cork Gaines recently dismissed this rumor in a recent post.

Gaines:

“Giambi's agent: [covers phone, giggles like a school girl] OK. Let's start at three years, $45 million.

World B. Friedman: [gulps] But...but your guy is old and we only had to pay Cliff Floyd $2.75 million for half of a season's worth of work. Giambi is one-dimensional and baseball gloves probably should get a restraining order against him. Even PECOTA says he was only worth $9-10 million in 2008. How about two years, $12 million?

Giambi's agent: Listen, my guy just posted an OPS+ of 130 which was just behind Vlad the Impaler and Miguel Cabrera and just ahead of Grady Sizemore, Magglio Ordonez and David Ortiz. That OPS+ was better than free agents Adam Dunn, Raul Ibanez and Pat Burrell. He is only 37, and have you seen him recently? I don't want to say my boy is back on the juice, but have you seen his arms recently? He is bigger than when he got busted the first time...Uh, I mean the only time...or whatever it was that he apologized for and never admitted to...Three years, minimum. And he made $23 million in 2007. My client is used to a certain lifestyle.”

Also, Trever Miller reportedly agreed to a preliminary contract with the St. Louis Cardinals last Friday. The deal is still not yet official, however. Miller posted a 107 ERA+ in 43.3 innings and recorded some big outs for the Rays this past season.

The American League East is the majors' toughest division.

The Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays were all strong clubs in 2008.

And even the Baltimore Orioles have finally made progress in the rebuilding process, which will only make things more interesting.

Under Peter Angelos, the Orioles refused to rebuild for almost a decade. In the process, the franchise lost a good chunk of its fan base as the new feel of Camden Yards gradually began to wear off. Since Angelos brought on Andy MacPhail in June 2007, however, the club has implemented a realistic long-term plan to eventually compete in the A.L. East.

The only way they, or any club with a similar revenue stream, will be able to sustain success is to build from within, essentially copying the Rays' blueprint. Tampa Bay developed several homegrown products of the farm system, and most of its World Series roster was made up of team-controlled, cheap players under the age of 25.

Baltimore appears to be on the right track now, though, as it is doing exactly that. Angelos and co. have wisely devoted the proper financial resources to improving through the draft, allowing them to take the best talent available the past two years. This, in turn, has enabled them to add some much-needed high-impact, cheap talent and depth to an improved farm system.

MacPhail also acquired a great deal of value last offseason. He pulled off a steal when he shipped Erik Bedard to the Seattle Mariners in exchange for an excellent package of prospects and All-Star reliever George Sherrill and Adam Jones. He also dealt aging shortstop Miguel Tejada to the Houston Astros,  a necessary step that brought in a few nice prospects.

But the Orioles newfound hope starts with franchise-changing catching prospect Matt Wieters, the fifth overall pick of the 2007 draft out of Georgia Tech University. Wieters, a closer during college who was clocked as high as 98 MPH on the bump, is an excellent receiver with a rocket arm and projects to hit for both average and power. He also has excellent make-up and an advanced approach at the plate. Essentially, he is the closest thing to Joe Mauer as they come--except with the chance to hit for more power. He would have been picked earlier if not for signability concerns, with his agent, Scott Boras, reportedly seeking  more than $10-million around draft day.

Wieters is arguably the best prospect in baseball. Baseball America ranked him 12th on their Top 100 prospect list entering the season before he made his pro debut. He lived up the pre-season ranking--and them some--in 2008, making his $6-million signing bonus seem like a bargain.

The switch-hitting backstop came out of the gates swinging in High A ball, where he showed tremendous plate discipline and power potential. He batted .345/.451/.576, with 15 home runs, 40 RBIs and 44 walks in 69 games. He posted a 1.027 OPS, one of the highest totals on the circuit before he was promoted, and 16.1 percent walk rate and .454 wOBA. Quite amazingly, he finished his stint in the Carolina League with 55 runs created, posting a stellar 10.44 RC/27 in 229 at-bats.

Wieters was then promoted to Double-A Bowie, where he continued to swing the bat with authority. He hit a robust .365/.463/625, with 12 homers in 61 games while showing excellent plate discipline. He walked 38 times compared to only 29 strikeouts while producing a 1.088 OPS, 60 runs created, a 12.37 RC/27 and a .476 wOBA in the Eastern League.

Wieters combined to hit .355/.454/.600, with 27 home runs, 91 RBIs and a 1.053 OPS. For his efforts, he was named Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year; he even edged out Tampa Bay pitching prospect David Price. He also received rave reviews on his defense, as he improved his game-calling ability and continued to make strides in his footwork.

Not a bad first impression, huh?

Wieters will have an outside chance to unseat incumbent starter Ramon Hernandez in spring training. Even if he is sent down to Triple-A for some more seasoning and at-bats--like the Rays did with Evan Longoria--look for him to win the job outright at some point in 2009. The power might not translate immediately, but expect the 22-year-old to produce a high average and on-base percentage. If he receives enough at-bats, he will compete with Price for Rookie of the Year.

Baltimore has several other high-level prospects as well, a group highlighted by pitchers Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman.

Arrieta posted a 2.87 ERA and 9.56 K/9 in 20 starts at High-A. He has dominated hitters in the past and has a high ceiling.

Matusz, the top college pitcher selected in the draft, should rise up through the system quickly. A standout at San Diego State, the left-hander throws his fastball in the 93-to-94 MPH range with a nasty sink and has two improving secondary offerings. He did not sign until the August 15 deadline--a major league deal with a $6-million bonus--but has the chance to help out the parent club within a few years.

Tillman, who came over in the Bedard trade, is a promising starting pitching prospect. At age 20, he was impressive at Double-A Bowie in 2008, going 11-4 with a 3.18 ERA in 28 starts. Although he still had some command issues (4.31 BB/9), the 6-5 right-hander struck out 154 and allowed only 10 home runs in 135.2 innings pitched. Given his age, it was a nice showing--especially after his struggles in High-A in the Seattle organization in 2007.

Baltimore still has a long uphill battle ahead, but there is finally light at  the end of the tunnel.  The farm system is in great shape, MacPhail is a competent GM and there are some nice long-term pieces already having success in the majors (Nick Markakis, most notably.)

While a worst-to-first turnaround in '09 is unlikely, the next decade should be much more enjoyable for O's fans.

Free Agent Outlook: With all of this being said, it would be unwise for the Orioles to throw big money at free agents A.J. Burnett and Mark Teixeira. Burnett and Teixeira are both Maryland natives, and signing the pair would offer a short-term boost at the ticket window. In reality, however, giving long-term, mutli-million dollar deals to either player will only prevent them from staying on par with their new (and effective) strategy: building a solid major league product through scouting and player development. Baltimore is more than one or two players away from competing, meaning that the franchise would be better off using their financial resources to sign future early draft picks, the young core already in the organization and to buy out arbitration years for Wieters and other high-level prospects.

Jonah Keri, co-author of Baseball Between The Numbers, was kind enough to answer several questions about the Tampa Bay Rays in an email exchange. Keri is a frequent contributor to ESPN.com (click here for archive) whose writing has appeared in Baseball Prospectus, Playboy, the New York Times, Salon, Slate and many other publications. He also writes a popular stock market column for Investor's Business Daily and offers analysis on everything from college basketball to politics on his website, JonahKeri.com.

Jonah, thanks for taking the time answer some questions.

Reid Brignac has regressed offensively since his breakout performance in the California League back in 2006. Brignac finished with a sub-.300 OBP in his Triple-A debut but has made strides defensively. How does he compare defensively to Jason Bartlett, and does he have a chance to win the job in camp? Or is there any chance that the Rays would deal him this winter, under the impression that Bartlett could man the position until Tim Beckham is ready down the road?

JK: I have no inside knowledge on this front per se, but I could see the Rays dealing Brignac, yes. Andrew Friedman is always looking for value. So whether or not they trade Brignac could depend on whether teams see the Cal League stats and improved defense or focus on the offensive regression of the past couple years. If they keep Brignac, I imagine they'll stick with Bartlett for his defense.

With David Price set to crack the rotation, who do you think will be the odd man out? According to this data, Andy Sonnanstine was considerably more valuable than many people gave him credit for in 2008. With that being said, he seems like the best bet to stay. However, would Edwin Jackson, because of his stuff, bring in more value in return if he is traded? If you had to bet, which pitcher is more likely to be dealt?

JK: Again, I think it will come down to value. If teams are willing to shell out more for Sonnanstine, he could be dealt. If Jackson can fetch more, he might go. I think Jackson would work well in a bullpen role too, so that could be another option. I'd like to see the Rays see if they could get a true impact bat for Scott Kazmir. But it's rare that we see that kind of blockbuster deal. Then again, the Delmon Young deal was a shocker when it happened.

Jeff Niemann is unlikely to ever emerge as a front-line stud at this point, but would be ranked a lot higher in another organization without so much pitching depth. Out of options, where do you see him at this point next offseason?

JK: Another good bullpen candidate. Someone who throws that hard coming downhill with his height...if they just slot Niemann in the pen and stop shuttling him back and forth, he could be a good, cheap option.

Will Mitch Talbot earn a spot in the Rays' bullpen in 2009?

JK: Another who'd be worth a shot. That's the beauty of having so much organizational pitching depth, of course. There's no need to hand out a three-year contract to some random veteran. Save a few million here and a few million there with equivalent talent, and suddenly you've got the cash to, say, buy out David Price's arbitration years in 2010.

The Rays excelled at run prevention in 2008, ranking first in defensive efficiency. What steps will they take, if any, to prevent a regression on this front?

JK: The infield is the strength of the defense, and the Rays are going to bring everyone back there. There's a good chance the team will add a new right fielder. Going after a player who can hit without hurting the defense would help on that front, obviously. That means stay far, far away from Raul Ibanez, for example.

The Boston Red Sox will be back, the New York Yankees seemingly have the chance to sign every big-name free-agent pitcher this offseason and the Toronto Blue Jays return some excellent pitching. Is it possible for the Rays to be even stronger next year, yet still miss out on the playoffs?

JK: Most definitely. The AL East won't stop being a tough division any team soon. The Baltimore Orioles are going to improve too, as prospects like Matt Wieters, Chris Tillman et al come up.

If you could choose between Price and Wieters, who would you take?

JK: Wieters. Much less risk of injury and much more predictable performance for position players than pitchers.

Bartlett received a fifth-place vote for A.L. M.V.P., and even was selected as the Rays' Team M.V.P. by the local chapter of the BBWAA. What is wrong with that picture?

JK: Well plenty, of course. I don't want to take anything away from Bartlett, who was a huge defensive upgrade. Let's just say there were plenty of better MVP candidates. Several on his own team, in fact.

Andrew Friedman has a great track record of exploiting inefficiencies, having found several sleepers like Eric Hinske and Carlos Pena on the cheap in the recent past. With a handful of players due for raises in arbitration and little money to work with, do you have any predictions for what Friedman will do this winter?

JK: I expect the payroll to go up somewhat, given the team likely surpassed its revenue projections for 2008 with its playoff run, and that they're well positioned to contend again in '09. Using internal options for the bullpen would be a good way to defray some of the raises that other players are getting. I do think a Kazmir deal could make some sense, especially if it's for a younger, less expensive, but still talented hitter.

Did Chuck LaMar receive too much credit for the Rays' success during the postseason coverage?

JK: I think he received the right amount of coverage. The focus was mostly on Andrew Friedman, Matt Silverman and Stu Sternberg. Vince Naimoli, Chuck LaMar made plenty of mistakes during their respective tenures. But the old regime did make some contributions to the team that became the '08 Rays. Seemed reasonable to save at least some credit for them.

Do you think B.J. Upton would ever consider signing a similar deal to Evan Longoria, or is he more likely to go year-to-year until free agency?

JK: Well the dollar amounts would be much higher for Upton of course, since he's a fair bit further along on the service time clock than Longoria was when he signed. I imagine Upton will take the best deal available to him. If the Rays make a big, multi-year deal, I'd imagine he's strongly consider it. If the Rays opt not to extend a lucrative long-term offer, Upton will do fine year-to-year.

Has Carl Crawford reached his peak as a player, barring an improvement in his approach on on-base skills? Do you foresee a bounceback when he is fully healthy in '09?

JK: I could see a power spike. He's 27, at a stage in his career where you should expect a small, but gradual erosion in speed. Players of that age, assuming health, do often see power spikes. The biggest level of upside would be an improved batting eye. If Crawford learns to take more pitches, both to work walks and to find pitches to hit in favorable counts, everyone benefits.

Do you think Tampa Bay fans will get to see Wade Davis at some point next year?

JK: I do. How much he's involved will depend on the health of the Rays' pitchers. If everyone's healthy and producing, we might be talking about just a September cup of coffee for Davis--or possibly a David Price-style call-up where they get him on the roster before Sept. 1 as a prelude to a possible spot on the playoff roster.

Since Rocco Baldelli cannot play back-to-back days in the outfield due to his mitochondrial disorder, would it be an unwise decision for Tampa Bay to make him a serious offer and give him a roster spot?

JK: Depends on price, of course. He's a free agent so he can go anywhere he likes. If other teams value him as anything close to the future star he was once thought to be, I imagine the Rays will pass. If teams balk because of Baldelli's health, a contract loaded with playing time and performance incentives would make sense.

Thanks for answering the questions, Jonah.

For those who have not read BBTN, I encourage you to do so. It will change the way you look at the game forever. Also, Keri recently finished the Page 2 guide to MLB Free Agency, which you don't want to miss.

To reach Tyler Hissey, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com

It is now official.

Mike Mussina is hanging up the spikes after a brilliant 18-year career with the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees.

Unlike many other athletes nearing the end, Mussina decided to go out on top. The veteran right-hander enjoyed a renaissance in 2008, producing his first 20-win season to anchor a New York starting rotation decimated with injuries. He posted the second-best ERA+, 132 (league average is 100), during his time with the Yankees. He did this despite having to pitch in front of a defensively challenged team that ranked near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency.

While he no longer had the dominant stuff that enabled him to have such a nice run in Baltimore, Mussina reinvented himself on the mound. His command was exceptional, as he struck out 150 against 30 walks and used his pitching smarts—putting that Stanford brain to work—to cruise through the American League East at 39 years old. A large part of his success came from his ability to get strike one; he did sox 68 percent of the time, one of the highest marks in the majors.

All in all, it was a nice final chapter in the career of one of the best pitchers of this past generation.

Now that Mussina is officially retired, it is appropriate to begin the Hall of Fame discussion.

The debate will surely rage on for the next five years. In my opinion, I think that he is indeed a Hall of Famer—though it is a borderline case.

Mussina was a model of consistency throughout his career. While wins are one of the most overrated stats in baseball—since they are so team-driven—it is hard to ignore the fact that he won at least 10 in every year since 1992. He also picked up more than 15 victories 11 times, collecting 270 for his entire career.

Many voters are myopic in how they evaluate Hall-eligible pitchers. A resume with 300 wins, it seems, is the golden ticket to Cooperstown, and this will certainly influence some votes for Mussina. However, this is an overrated barometer as an entrance to the Hall’s doors. He could have attempted to come back for a few more seasons with his eye on the milestone. In reality, this would decrease his numbers in the stats that really define a pitcher’s value.

Counting stats such as wins are misleading, since they are so context-driven. Often times, many players will extend their careers to reach certain marks in the popular statistical categories like home runs and wins. This negatively affects their rate numbers.

Credit Mussina for not falling into that group. Even still, there are only two eligible pitchers with as many wins who are not in the Hall of Fame—Bert Blyleven and Bobby Matthews.

Mussina, for his career, was 270-153 (.638 winning percentage) with a 3.68 ERA, 123 ERA+ and a 2,813/785 K/BB ratio in 3,562.7 innings pitched. He racked up at least 175 strikeouts nine different times, currently ranking 19th on the all-time career Ks list. Every other pitcher on the list is either headed to or already in Cooperstown. Durability was also an area of strength for him, as he had 11 seasons in which he topped the 200-inning mark.

Working against his case, there is only one pitcher in the Hall of Fame, Red Ruffing (3.80), with a higher career ERA. Only three other pitchers—Ted Lyons (3.67), Jesse Haines and Herb Pennock (3.60)—have their own plaque with a career mark above 3.60.

Outside of seven Gold Glove awards, Mussina lacks some important hardware in his trophy case as well. This also hurts his case. He finished in the top six in Cy Young voting nine times, though, again showing off his consistency. The highest finish of his career was his second-place nod in 1999, when he went 18-7 with a 134 ERA+. He had two top-four finishes as well. He was often overlooked in the Cy voting, though, because he was pitching in a generation that featured three of the greatest starters in baseball history, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez, in his league during the prime stages of his career.

Some writers will be turned off by his lack of any major awards, citing an inability for him to dominate the competition relative to other pitchers in his era. During the mid-90s, though, he had some dominant stretches for the Orioles, despite pitching in a hitter-friendly environment. He was a force in the strike-shortened ’94 season, posting his career-best ERA+, 163, while picking up 16 wins in 24 starts. He then collected 38 wins in the next two years, registering a 143 ERA+ in 1995. He also made five All-Star trips, all during his days with Baltimore.

Mussina was a near-annual Top-10 finisher among league leaders in ERA (ten times), ERA+ (12 times), BB/9 (15 times), K/9 (nine times), shutouts (11 times), strikeouts (11 times), runs saved against average (seven times) and WHIP (11 times). While his greatness and longevity were overshadowed in the 1990s by Clemens and Johnson and the Atlanta Braves’ trio—Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux and John Smoltz—he was one of the most effective right-handers in his day.

Mussina also finished with a better career park-adjusted ERA+ than several Hall of Famers, legends and perennial All-Stars. Among others, the list includes: Bob Feller (122), Babe Ruth (122), Don Drysdale (121), Rollie Fingers (119), Blyleven (118), Tom Glavine (118), Warren Spahn (118), ####lord Perry (117), Dennis Eckersley (116), Preacher Roe (116), Steve Carlton (115), Ferguson Jenkins (115), Phil Niekro (115), Dwight Gooden (111) and Nolan Ryan (111).

Mussina spent his entire career in the American League, pitching in its superior division, the powerful A.L. East, at the height of the steroid era during his stints in Baltimore and New York. Had he not had to face the DH and the superiority of the A.L. for his entire career, his stats would surely be even better. It is hard to ignore that.

The critics often cite that Mussina never won a ring. He just missed the Dynasty stretch in the Bronx, signing a six-year, $88.5-million deal shortly after the Yankees’ last World Series title in 2000. He also lacks a defining postseason moment—Curt Schilling had the bloody sock, each member of the Atlanta group were all brilliant in their 1995 World Series run, ect. Still, despite a 7-9 record, he was effective in the playoffs. In 16 postseason series, he posted a 3.42 ERA and 145-to-33 K/B ratio in 139.2 innings pitched.

Mussina will be unfairly hurt by the fact that he did not win 300 games, only had one 20-win campaign and never won a Cy Young. At some point, though, it seems likely that he will make the drive up I-81 from his Pennsylvania home to Cooperstown to make his acceptance speech.

Moose, as they say, would definitely get my vote.

To reach Tyler Hissey, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com.

It was depressing to learn that the talented writers at Fire Joe Morgan are calling it quits after years of providing entertaining criticism of the mainstream sports media. From the Joe chats to food metaphors, Ken Tremendous, Junior and dak used humor to spread the word about sabermetrics. During college, visiting the site was one of the first things that I would do every morning. Now, college is over and FJM is not more. The way I see it, things can only go up from here.

Deadspin posted an entertaining, though sad, exit interview with the guys, each Hollywood writers. It is a great read.

Michael Schur, who writes under the pseudonym Ken Tremendous, has been a lead writer on The Office and played Dwight Schrute's cousin, Mose, in a few guest cameos. It is going to be hard to watch the show in the future without thinking about David Eckstein or Darin Erstad.

*Jeff Passan, a survivor, offered an excellent tribute to the blog at Yahoo! Sports.

*Peter Gammons has a new post up on his blog at ESPN.com. Gammons offers some interesting insights. He wonders why Hanley Ramirez finished 11th in the voting. I completely agree with him on that front.

Ramirez is not a great defensive shortstop, but, considering his position, he is a stud offensive player. He batted .301/.400/.540, with a 146 OPS+ and 33 home runs as the anchor of the Marlins' power-hitting infield. He also scored 125 runs.

*Albert Pujols clearly deserved to win the award, but the voters erred in a lot of their other secondary votes. It was surprising that Lance Berkman did not garner more serious consideration as well; he finished fifth.

Within the piece, Gammons also says that the Atlanta Braves are still in the running in the Jake Peavy sweepstakes. Frank Wren, according to the blog post, is intent on getting a deal done. There is also word that the Yankees are not in the running. In my opinion, it would be unwise for Peavy, the ace of the San Diego Padres, to accept a deal to the American League, where his numbers would surely suffer.

*According to Jon Heyman, Pedro Martinez is planning to pitch in 2009. Ben Reiter of SI.com ranked Martinez 44 in his Top 50 available free agents. He is an injury risk, of course, but his agent told Heyman that he is fully healthy for the first time in a while. After missing the first four months of the season with a hamstring injury, he posted a 75 ERA+ in 20 starts for the New York Mets. I had Martinez ranked higher in my Top 50, which I will be releasing later this week.

*Jeremy Affeldt signed with the San Fransisco Giants on Monday. Affeldt was one of the premier relief pitchers available in this free agent class, so credit the Giants for locking him for only two years, at a relatively cheap price of $8-million. As Dave Cameron writes, the left-hander is seriously underrated, and is coming off an excellent performance with the Cincinnati Reds. He posted a 3.33 ERA in 74 appearances, striking out 80 in 78.0 innings pitched. His 9.19 K/9 rate was the best of his career as his average fastball velocity jumped from 92.4 to 94.6, according to FanGraphs.

Brian Sabean deserves some praise for locking up one of the under-the-radar prizes in this class. Sabean has had some blunders, from the infamous trade with the the Minnesota Twins to the Barry Zito fiasco, but he pulled off a steal here. It looks like that Eckerd College degree has done him some good after all.

*Pujols won his second M.V.P. on Monday, and Joe Posnanski writes that it is time to give him due credit for his out-of-this-world-abilities as a baseball player. I have received some emails arguing why Ryan Howard deserved to win the award.

Although I touched on this in an earlier post, let us look at the data one last time from a comment I left on the other article.

Pujols’ monthly performance:

April—.365/.523/.594/1.117
May—.373/.454/.706/.1.160
June—.302/.444/.558/.1.002
July—.347/.413/.564/.977
August—.398/.491/.745/1.236
September—.321/.427/.702/.1.129


Howard’s monthly performance:

April—.168/.298/.347/.645
May—.238/.344/.590/.934
June—.234/.287/.439/.726
July—.311/.366/.612/.978
August—.213/.328/.463/.791
September—.352/.422/.852/.1.274


Howard was better in one month, September, but not by much. Take that away and he would be hovering around near league average slash stat numbers at the position. He was brutal in August, and a non-factor for half of the year. Do those games not count?

Counting stats are misleading, context-driven. In the stats that count, Pujols had better numbers. He had more hits, doubles, walks, stolen bases, runs extra-base hits, and a higher BA, OBP, slugging, OPS. In the advanced metrics, he ranked first in the league—and considerably higher than Howard—in adjusted OPS+, runs created, adjusted batting runs, batting wins and offensive winning percentage (essentially, a team of nine Pujols in the lineup would have had the highest winning percentage of any other player).

Pujols also had a 98.7 VORP—value over replacement player—compared to Howard’s 36.6. That does not account for defense, but is great at distinguishing real offensive value. Nearly two-thirds higher.

Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins each finished with higher totals in VORP on the Philadelphia Phillies, as did pitchers Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer. The stat is not perfect, but is pretty solid at determining actual value, not perceived value—like if we took him away, and so forth.

The Phillies still would have been dangerous even with an average offensive 1B—Mike Jacobs, for instance—instead of Howard, who was not the M.V.P. of his own team let alone the entire league.

Pujols also grades out as a better defender in every metric.

Your honor, the defense rests.

*It was shocking that Utley, who hit 32 home runs and played exceptional defense at the keystone, finished 15th in the voting. Cameron agrees.

*And, on a sad note, former Rice star Wade Townsend underwent surgery on his right shoulder this week. Towsend, the Tampa Bay Rays' first-round pick back in 2005, has battled injuries since signing, and is now likely to miss the 2009 season. His days in the organization may be over as a result. The 25-year-old right-hander made three starts in the Arizona Fall League before sustaining the injury.

Boston Red Sox infielder Dustin Pedroia was named American League Most Valuable Player this afternoon by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America. I really do not have a problem with it at all, though Kevin Youkilis was my pick in a recent awards article.

Pedroia had a great all-around season, playing excellent defense and providing plus offensive production for a second baseman. He tied for the league lead in hits (213) and paced the circuit in doubles (54) and runs scored (118). He also ranked second in batting average (.326) and 11th in on-base percentage, which enabled him to add another trophy on the award shelf next to his Rookie of the Year.

Pedroia came on strong in the second half as well, batting .345/.402/.547 to help guide the Red Sox to the A.L. Wild Card. As a 5-foot-7 slugger who swings out of his shoes, it was fairly easy to predict him as the eventual winner. The story, which has infatuated writers, came close to matching the on-field production. His excellent stretch in August, when Mike Lowell and David Ortiz were on the disabled list, also helped his case.

According to Jay Jaffe at Baseball Prospectus, Pedroia was the right winner.

Youkilis, the Hank Aaron winner, was more valuable offensively, though. He finished with a higher OBP and slugging percentage, and was also the most productive hitter with runners in scoring position out of the candidates who collected votes. In addition, he ranked among the majors' most effective defensive first baseman and filled in at third base admirably when Mike Lowell was on the disabled list.

Youkilis, though, finished a distant third, behind runner-up Justin Morneau of the Minnesota Twins.

Morneau finished second in the league with 129 RBIs, but also came up to the plate with runners on base more frequently than any hitter in baseball. In reality, he was not even the most important player on his own team. That would be Joe Mauer, who provided top-notch defense at a premium position, catcher, won his second batting title and finished second in the league in OBP. He collected a pair of first-place votes, ending up fourth.

There was not a slam dunk case in the A.L, however, and I understand the arguments for the aforementioned position players. It was an interesting year, as two of the four playoff-bound teams lacked legitimate candidates and there was not a clear-cut player from a non-contending team. The best team in the league, the Tampa Bay Rays, did not have one player who stood out above the rest. Tampa Bay rode its excellent run prevention to a division title.

Carlos Pena finished ninth for the second consecutive year, but missed a lot of time and had a poor first half—.778 OPS before the All-Star break. Evan Longoria, the Rookie of the Year, finished 11th, but began the season in Triple-A and missed almost of month with a wrist fracture.

Heck, the local chapter of the BBWAA even selected Jason Bartlett as the Rays’ Team M.V.P. Bartlett anchored the most efficient team defense in baseball at shortstop, but posted an anemic .690 OPS and produced just 29 extra-base hits. (Quite amazingly, he even collected a fifth-place vote for league M.V.P., finishing ahead of Ichiro and Mark Teixeira in points.)

If Pena hit 46 home runs like he did in ’07 and posted a 1.000-plus OPS, perhaps things would be different. But the Rays did not have a real individual superstar performance.

The Los Angeles Angels won 100 games, but actually had a fairly middling offense. Teixiera had a great run, but came over to the team in a mid-season trade with the Atlanta Braves.

Fransisco Rodriguez received a few first-place votes, thanks to his 62 saves. Rodriguez, in reality, was not even the most valuable relief pitcher in the league (Mariano Rivera). His lofty saves total was the function of opportunity; he had 69 chances, also a record. He actually had one of his worst seasons, as his K/9, W.H.I.P. and average fastball velocity all dropped to career lows.

The Central champs, the Chicago White Sox, had a potential winner in Carlos Quentin. Quentin was perhaps the front-runner until an injury ended his season five weeks early.

Which leads us to Boston. And, yes, Pedroia is really a nice pick, though he hit only 17 homers and did not rank in the top 10 in OPS. Youkilis was as well, but he did have 100 fewer at-bats than his teammate, which helped his slash stats line.

All in all, there were not any egregious errors in the voting for the major awards. There was some faulty thinking behind some decisions, but the right winner won in every award category.

Longoria and Geovany Soto were the right picks for R.O.Y and Cliff Lee and Tim Lincecum deserved their Cy Young awards. Ditto for Pedroia and Albert Pujols.


—Seriously, though, how did Bartlett receive more points than Ian Kinsler?

—Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News left Pedroia off his ballot completely. Grant is pretty open minded in his analysis, but what was he thinking here? As expected, he has drawn the wrath of Red Sox nation; even Rob Dibble ripped into him, calling him a “####” on The Show on XM Radio. He apologized today, and offered his explanation. Apparently, Pedroia’s low home run total, the smallest number for an M.V.P. winner since the days of Nellie Fox, guided his thinking.

To reach Tyler Hissey, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com.

The writers got it right.

Albert Pujols was a pretty easy choice for the 2008 National League Most Valuable Player.

In the end, it came down to a two-man race. Pujols edged Ryan Howard, the 2006 M.V.P., in the voting by 61 points to win the award for the second time of his career.

While the right player ended up on top, the vote margin should have been a lot larger. The gap in actual value between the two first basemen was stark.

Pujols posted considerably better numbers in the stats that have the most correlation with producing runs, OBP and slugging percentage. He registered totals of .462 and .653 in these categories, respectively. Howard finished with a less-than-stellar .339 OBP and .543 slugging percentage.

Pujols also finished second in the league in batting average, hitting .357. Howard, on other hand, hit only .251 for the year. At the All-Star break, his line was even worse than that: .234/.324/.508.

Equally as telling, Pujols ranked first in his league with a 1.114 OPS and staggering 190 OPS+. OPS has its flaws as a statistic, but still is a useful way for determining offensive value.

Howard finished 14th with an .881 OPS.

The Philadelphia star garnered some serious consideration for his counting stats and excellent performance in September. He led the league with 46 home runs and 146 RBIs, of course, and delivered a bunch of key hits down the stretch.

The HR, RBI totals and nice finish are the fundamental points in the case for Howard, especially since his team made it to the postseason. Pujols ended up with 37 home runs and 116 RBIs while his team finished in fourth place in the N.L. Central.

However, counting stats are derived from context and do not tell the full story.

Howard had nine more homers than Pujols, but nearly 100 more at-bats. He also had more RBIs, the function of opportunity. With high-OBP players Jimmy Rollins and Chase Ultey setting the table ahead of him, he was given 50 more chances with RISP and nearly 100 with men on base than Pujols.

Pujols was actually the better hitter with RISP, batting .323/.523/.678/.1.201 OPS. Given the same opportunities, he would have easily paced the circuit in RBI. Howard, who was also excellent with men on base, was not quite as good in the same situation: .320/.439/.589/1.028. He also struck out nearly 200 times.

Plus, defense is a major factor here as well, since there is more to baseball than just hitting. Pujols deserved to win the Gold Glove at first base in the N.L., losing out to an undeserving selection in Adrian Gonzalez. He did, however, pick up his third consecutive Fielding Bible Award as the best defender at the position in either league, which is more of an honor. Howard graded out as below average with the glove.

Pujols is a much better all-around player, and it is not even close. He said it himself that a player must play for a contending team to be considered for this award. What he said is not relevant, though, and, in my opinion, was a misguided statement. The man can hit, but is wrong on this front.

Often times, players are unfairly left out of awards like this because of the poor performance of their teammates. The Cardinals were not very good in 2008, but still managed to remain in contention until the end of August. If Pujols was not on the roster, St. Louis would have been out of the race back in June.

Howard played for a winner, because the Phillies' roster was loaded with several other potent hitters and stars. In fact, one could make a strong case that he was not even the most valuable player on his own team, as Brad Lidge, 41-for-41 in save opportunities, and Chase Utley also had tremendous years.

Utley, in particular, seems more worthy of this award when defense is a factor. He graded out as the most effective defender at the keystone while hitting 32 home runs. He also produced a higher batting average, OBP and OPS than Howard at a more important infield position.

Howard was huge in September, hitting .352/.422/.852/1.274 OPS. He also belted 11 homers, several of which were game-changing blasts. He truly picked the best time to get hot while, leaving an image of greatness in the voters' minds when they had to turn in their ballots.

Last time I checked, though, the games in every other month count, too. A win in May does not receive the same attention, but means just as much in the standings as a victory in a pennant race. With this in mind, it is hard to ignore that Howard hovered around the Mendoza line for much of the year and was not a factor at all in April, June and August. In all honesty, there are at least five more deserving candidates.

Pujols was consistent throughout the year. He produced at least a .300 batting average, .400 OBP, .550 slugging percentage and .970 OPS in every month, which is pretty incredible. He also provided several huge hits down the stretch, hitting a sensational .366/.456/.706 in the second half. Essentially, if Pujols and Howard had switched places in spring training, the Phillies would have won the N.L. East by around 10-to-12 games, running away with the division in August instead of having to clinch in the final week.

In other words, if Pujols played for the Phillies, he would have been a near unanimous selection. Why should Pujols be penalized because he did not have better teammates?

The right man won. Looking at objective data, though, the victory should have been more of a landslide.

Imagine what Pujols will be able to do with a healthy elbow.

To reach Tyler Hissey, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com.

The New York Yankees made their first notable move of what is expected to be a busy offseason this past week, acquiring Nick Swisher and Kaneoka Teixeira from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for Wilson Betemit, Jhonny Nunez and Jeff Marquez.

Credit Brian Cashman for taking a flier on Swisher, who is coming off one of his worst single-season performances but has been a productive major league hitter in the past. Cashman is buying low, which is usually an effective investment strategy.

The deal, then, is an early win for the Yankees under one condition: it does not prevent them from making a serious run at free-agent first baseman Mark Teixeira.

Swisher may turn out to be a bust, yet is a breakout candidate in a new environment. He is about to turn 28, often times the peak for hitters, and is a lock to hit 20-plus home runs per year while drawing 80-plus walks. His value is at its low right now, though, because of his .219 batting average with the White Sox.

Swisher has never been able to hit for a high average in the past, but his ’08 clip is misleading. He posted an unusually low BABIP—batting average on balls in play, not accounting for home runs and strikeouts—at .251. With a decent line drive rate, it indicates that he was the victim of plain old bad luck. Three True Outcome players have fluctuating BABIP totals generally, but expect that mark to regress back to the mean in 2009. This will potentially push his batting average around his previous career norm of .250.

Swisher has been an above-average offensive player in the past, posting OPS totals of .865 and .835 in his final two years with the Oakland Athletics. He is clearly not a savior, but is a nice bat to add to the lineup. The Yankees have the chance to gain considerable value from this deal if he can get his average back up to an acceptable level and post numbers consistent with his career line of .244/.354/.451/.805 OPS. He is also a capable defender—though below average in center field—at first base and each corner outfield position; expect him to fill multiple roles in New York.

Still, according to Cashman, Swisher is expected to be the Yankees’ opening day first baseman. This is perhaps only a strategy to drive the price tag down for Teixeira, arguably the best position player available and who will draw interest from a number of suitors. If New York does not sign the switch-hitting slugger, their new option will be a defensive upgrade over Jason Giambi, whose offensive production will be difficult to replace in this scenario. Jorge Posada is also expected to see some innings at the position as well.

If Swisher takes over full time, though, he will leave the Yankees with another below-average hitter at an important position; his bat simply does not play as well at first base as it does in the outfield.

The Yankees would be better suited signing Teixeira, of course, with Swisher taking over in left field for the declining Hideki Matsui and filling various needs throughout the course of the season. If this occurs, this deal could turn out to be a steal.

The other Teixeira (unfortunately for Yankees fans, not Mark) was just a throw-in, but will likely establish himself as a middle reliever in the majors at some point. The 22-year-old right-hander missed bats to the tune of a 9.67 K/9 in 15 Double-A appearances in ’08, striking out nearly a batter per inning (60 in 61.0) combined between two levels. He posted a 1.33 ERA while picking up 22 saves overall.

Teixeira relies on a fairly average sinker/slider combination, but has poor command of his pitches. His slider is close to being a plus pitch, which has been the biggest reason for his minor league success. Look for him to surface in a few years, especially if he can add a few ticks to his fastball and make some strides on the command front. His ceiling is fairly limited, though; his stuff leaves a bit to be desired, according to several scouts, and he projects as a typical big league reliever.

On the Chicago side, they clearly did not receive as much in return as they sent to Oakland for Swisher last winter.

Betemit was once a top prospect, but, at 27, is unlikely to ever garner regular time in the majors. He can play multiple positions adequately—he logged innings at every infield position for the Yankees—but his plate discipline never caught up to the talent offensively. Barring a huge power breakout, he is unlikely to ever be more than a capable utility bat due to his inability to draw walks. In 1098 career at-bats, he has produced a line of .260/.325/.437, with 42 home runs.

Marquez has been hyped as a top prospect in the New York farm system since getting selected in the supplemental first round back in 2004. He has not really lived up to the prospect billing since then, however. The right-hander lacks a true out pitch currently, as he relies on a mediocre curve ball when he is ahead in the count. Since he has not developed one, he has not been able to miss bats; in 14 Triple-A starts, he posted a poor 3.68 K/9 ratio, with only 33 Ks in 80.2 innings pitched.

Marquez has an average fastball with pretty good sink, but has left a lot to be desired with his performance to this point. He could develop into something if he can add another plus pitch, probably a cut fastball, but was pretty expendable as far as the Yankees were concerned.

Nunez is a nice long-term sleeper who could develop, but is pretty far away. He began the season in the Washington Nationals organization. He spent a large portion of the first half as a starter in High-A ball, where he flashed the ability to rack up strikeouts—82 Ks in 81.0 innings pitched—before reaching Double-A as a reliever. He was then shipped to the Yankees, who kept him in a relief role at the same level.

Nunez projects as a middle reliever in the long run, but will need to induce more ground ball outs to keep rising.

The White Sox, under Ken Williams, are expected to make a splash in the Hot Stove this winter. According to Ken Rosenthal, Williams has only just begun dealing. It may have been too soon to unload Swisher at this point, though, given his fairly solid track record and plus on-base skills. Considering what they sent to Oakland for him— Gio Gonzalez, Faustino de los Santos and Ryan Sweeney, a pretty solid group of prospects—they appear to be pretty big losers for their efforts.

This deal may end up as a wash for New York, but Swisher has the potential to make a real impact for them as they attempt to regain prominence in the American League East—all for a relatively cheap price.

To reach Tyler Hissey, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com.

The Matt Holliday deal received most of the attention this past week, but there were a number of other under-the-radar moves that were overshadowed by the latest chapter of the Billy Beane story.

The Florida Marlins continued to dump payroll, trading three more players who were eligible for big raises in arbitration. The Marlins made one of the first moves of the Hot Stove season when they dealt power-hitting, low-OBP first baseman Mike Jacobs to the Kansas City Royals in exchange for reliever Leo Nunez a few weeks back. They stayed on course with their plan this past week, dealing away Kevin Gregg, Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham in two cost-cutting transactions.

Olsen and Willignham are headed to the Washington Nationals, who sent second baseman Emilio Bonifacio and a pair of minor leaguers down to Florida in return.

The Marlins were clearly looking to wash its hand of the pair for financial reasons. The Nationals, though, received some solid immediate help in this player swap.

Olsen has had some serious off-the-field issues in the past, but reportedly made strides as a person this past year. He has above-average stuff for a left-hander as well, which is why he was a top prospect not too long ago. Although his average fastball velocity dropped nearly three miles per hour, he had a respectable, but not spectacular finish; 201.2 innings pitched, 4.20 ERA, 101 ERA+.

However, Olsen does not miss bats as frequently as many scouts expected when he was considered a top prospect. In fact, his K/9 rate has steadily decreased since his strong rookie performance in 2006--8.27, 6.78, 5.04. He has been prone to giving up the long ball as well, having allowed 59 in the past two seasons. He is still only 24 years old and has proven to be durable in his recent past, but his ceiling is fairly limited if he does not regain some velocity.

If Olsen can do so, there is a chance for the Nationals to add a difference-making lefty to their starting rotation for a fairly cheap price.

Willingham is an above-average offensive player with solid on-base skills. He has decent power (45 home runs from 2006-07), but excellent plate discipline is the biggest area of strength in his skill set. The outfielder, in an injury-plagued campaign, posted a decent line of .254/.364/.470, with 15 homers, in 351-at bats in 2008. The Nationals' outfield is getting crowded quickly, but he has a chance to add a significant boost to an anemic offense that is starved for players who get on base. He is a poor defensive corner outfielder, which negates some of his contributions at the plate. Still, he is a bargain in cost relative to the market value for his production; he has a career .472 slugging percentage and 117 OPS+.

The Nationals are miles away from putting good enough of a product on the field to realistically compete in the N.L. East; Jim Bowden is still the general manager, after all, and this deal is by no means destined to push them over the top. To his credit, though, Bowden acquired two low-risk, high reward options who could each breakout in a new environment, improving his roster in the short term.

On the Marlins' end, they received a decent utility man in Bonifacio, who has batted .240/.300/.328 in 192 major league at-bats. He is a solid infielder defensively, with the ability to play multiple positions effectively. While he is still young, he is never shown much offensively--outside of a strong performance in the California League in '06, when he posted minor league highs in batting average, OBP and slugging percentage--and does not project as even a league average hitter in the majors.

Florida also picked up two low-level minor leaguers, P.J. Dean and Jake Smolinski.

Dean was selected in the seventh round back in 2007 out of a Texas high school. He had a so-so short-season debut in the Gulf Coast League once he signed, posting a 4.06 ERA in only nine starts. He had some success in the New York Penn League in his second pro stint; 4-1 record, 1.57 ERA, 34 strikeouts, 16 walks in 46.0 innings pitched over 10 starts for the Vermont Lake Monsters. In the long run, he could end up blossoming into a legitimate big league prospect but he still is several years away from adding any value at the major league level.

Smolinski will miss all of 2009 after undergoing knee surgery. The Nationals' second-round selection in '07, he was considered one of the best prep hitters in the nation during his senior year of high school. He played some second base and the outfield during his career so far, yet still lacks a real position at this point. He is an interesting hitting prospect who makes good contact, but is not expected to hit for a lot of power. In 77 games combined between three levels, he batted .271/.345/.395, with four homers and a .740 OPS.

Considering its primary intention, Florida adds two high school draftees who could develop while receiving some salary relief. Washington still appears to be the winner here.

The Marlins gained a lot more than the opportunity to free up some payroll in their deal with the Chicago Cubs, getting back promising right-handed pitching prospect Jose Ceda.

With the Gregg move, Chicago has officially cut its ties with free-agent closer Kerry Wood, who was looking for at least a three-year deal. Wood's replacement, Carlos Marmol, had an excellent year in a setup role and should pick up a ton of saves when given the chance. Unfortunately, the Cubs' new reliever is really not as great as advertised, and is a clear downgrade in the setup role when compared to the Marmol/Wood combination. He has been effective by mixing a sinker, split-fastball and slider in the recent past, enabling him to win the closer role in Florida in '07. It is easy to get fooled by his 61 saves since then, though, which are a function of his being just decent enough to gain the opportunity for so many chances more than anything else. His control is subpar--77 walks allowed since '07--and he has a 4.00 career ERA.

It is misguided to criticize Chicago for not locking up Wood to a long-term deal, given his injury history. However, it is surprising that they parted ways with Ceda, who has excellent stuff, a live arm and the chance to be special. He posted a 12.46 K/9 ratio in 22 relief appearances in Double-A in '08, striking out 42 in 30.1 innings. In fact, the soon-to-be 22-year-old has posted high strikeout totals at each stop in the minors, using a mid-90s fastball/slider mix to overmatch young hitters. He is a nice pickup for the Marlins, who were going to cut Gregg loose, anyway, since he is due to make around $3-million in arbitration.

To reach Tyler Hissey, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com.

I will be appearing on the Sports Cafe with Sean Duade on Sunday morning to discuss the latest news on the Hot Stove.

Click here to listen live. I will be coming on at 11:20

The managers and coaches made some pretty big gaffes in the Gold Glove balloting this year. Granted, it is difficult to quantify defensive value; there have been advancements in new metrics, but there is still a lot of room for improvement.

When it comes to handing out offensive awards, on the other hand, the process is considerably easier. At least it should be.

Well, the Silver Slugger awards were handed out this afternoon, and there were once again some serious snubs.

In a chart that I put together, I listed the winner of the Silver Slugger Award at each position in the American League. For several important offensive categories—from batting average to OPS—I listed each winner’s stats and league positional rank in the respective metric.

This makes it pretty easy to see which players deserved to win, and which players simply did not.

Morneau did not deserve to win the award at first base. He had a fine season—.300/.374/.499—but the voters apparently selected him for his RBI total, 129. This is unfortunate, because RBIs are a function of opportunity, and are thus a poor tool on their own for comparing hitters. In the stats that really have a direct impact on scoring runs and winning (OBP, OPS), he ranked third and fourth, respectively, at his position.

Kevin Youkilis should have won instead; he ranked higher in every category except RBIs. Youkilis simply had fewer RBI chances, and actually had a better slash stats line with runners in scoring position than the winner. The Boston infielder batted .374/.445/.708/1.091 OPS with RISP. Morneau, though he was excellent with men on second and third in his own right, ended up at .348/.443/.602/1.045 OPS; essentially, he only had more opportunities.

Carlos Pena, of the Tampa Bay Rays, would also have been a better choice here.

Clearly, then, the Morneau M.V.P. discussion is fairly misguided, especially considering his position and defensive indifference.

At second base, one could make the case for Texas Rangers star Ian Kinsler. Kinsler missed a large chunk of time with a season-ending injury in August, though. Pedroia had an excellent offensive season, anyway, and will garner serious consideration for M.V.P. He nearly won a batting title, hitting .328. But he finished second at the position, behind Kinsler, in nearly every other category. He was more valuable overall than his second base counterpart from Texas when defense is factored into the equation, but offensively—the criteria for this award—he was not the best candidate.

Rodriguez was an easy choice at the hot corner. He had a down season by his standards, but led the position in nearly every category except RBIs. Although he took some flack, it is hard to criticize any player who posts a.573 slugging percentage, .965 OPS and ranks in the top 10 in the majors in V.O.R.P. His partner on the left side of the infield, Jeter, was justified in winning at shortstop. He is no longer that great in the field, but he is still a productive hitter; .300/.363/.408 is exceptional at the position.

Hamilton, the majors’ RBI leader and Quentin, the frontrunner for M.V.P. until his season-ending injury, are each deserving of the honor. They each finished in the top three among A.L. outfielders in OPS. Quentin broke out in his new surroundings in Chicago, ranking first in home runs and OPS, second in OBP and fourth in RBIs.

Sizemore is one of the best all-around outfielders in the majors and has great on-base skills, but he only finished in the top five in two categories: home runs (tied for third) and slugging percentage (fifth).

Jermaine Dye (.885 OPS), Vladimir Guerrero (.886), Nick Markakis (.897) and Magglio Ordonez (.869) all could have been selected for the third spot.

Mauer at catcher was perhaps the easiest choice at any position. He is a true rarity—a strong defensive catcher who can hit. He won his second batting title while getting on base at a plus-.400 clip; he is not only the best-hitting catcher in his league, but all of baseball.

Huff was a force in Baltimore. He had one of the best single-season performances of his career—even better than his 37-home run campaign with Tampa Bay—finishing with 32 homers, a .912 OPS and 108 RBIs.

But the DH silver bat should have gone to Milton Bradley, who hit .321/.436/.563, with a DH-best .999 OPS.

There were not any major, major blunders, but again the managers and coaches erred in a few of their selections.

To reach Tyler Hissey, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com.

Have been too busy to write lately, but there were several recent transactions that I wanted to comment on.

I will begin with the Blockbuster deal of the week. I will touch on the Nick Swisher move and the Marlins’ decision to seemingly trade away all of their arbitration-eligible young players to cut payroll in some future posts.

It was surprising to learn that Billy Beane traded for Matt Holliday earlier this week, but I agree with his thought process.

Holliday has definitely benefited from playing in the thin air in Colorado; he posted a .584 slugging percentage and .997 OPS at Coors Field, .486 and .891 on the road. He is more than a pure product of his home hitting environment, though, and will offer a major offensive upgrade in the Oakland outfield next year.

The A’s were one of the worst-hitting clubs in 2008, ranking near the bottom in batting average, on-base percentage and OPS. They lacked a difference-making hitter, and Holliday could fill that void. As a Scott Boras client due for a big payday in 2009, he is clearly a rental player for the cost-effective A’s.  

Colorado would not have been able to afford him, either, so credit the organization for reeling in a nice return—Carlos Gonzalez, Greg Smith, Huston Street—in exchange for a one-year player.

But Beane made the right choice.

Gonzalez may not have strong enough on-base skills to ever emerge into a star. He has some outstanding tools, but his pitch recognition is subpar (81 K’s, 13 walks in 85 games, with a .273 OBP); he was generally not a good fit in Oakland, which places a major emphasis on patience and plate discipline.

The long-term outcome of this trade is going to come down to Gonzalez, though. He has star potential--possibly a .300 hitter with 20-home run power if he develops, with above-average defense--but is one of those players who is going to have to hit around .300 every year to keep his OBP at an acceptable level. If he can improve his approach, which has left to a lot to be desired since his pro debut in 2003, he could develop into a solid major league outfielder. He has the inside track on the Rockies' starting center field job in sping training, but the organization may send him down to Triple-A for more seasoning. When he takes over that role for good, he will see his power numbers improve by playing in Coors Field.

Smith projects as nothing more than a fifth starter in the majors. The 24-year-old lefty struggled with control problems at times in the minors, and then had command issues as a rookie in ’08 (111-to-87 K/BB).  He can add some value, though, with the ability to keep hitters off balance and an excellent pickoff move. He had some rough patches in ’08 but was much better than his 7-16 record indicates, having posted a 4.16 ERA in 190.1 innings pitched. Moving to Coors Field is going to be a difficult change, as he is predominantly a flyball pitcher. But, like any other pitcher, he will benefit from moving into the weaker league.

Street, who has 94 saves and a 2.88 career ERA, is never going to be an impact closer again. He still has a chance to turn into an effective middle reliever in the right situation. Due to injuries, his stuff is not what it once was, causing him to lose his closer’s role early last spring. But he actually had a better year than he was given credit for: 3.73 ERA, 69-to-18 K/W, .667 opponents’ OPS. Beane feels that late-inning relievers are easy to replace ("closers are made, not born"), and therefore no longer had any use for Street’s services.

The A’s still have the core of their excellent (and cheap) bullpen intact, as well a bunch of promising young pitching prospects who are close to making an impact. They are again expected to excel at run prevention in ’09—with the chance to field an excellent young starting rotation, in addition to an efficient defense. Having added an impact hitter finally added to the middle of the lineup, they may now have just enough offense to realistically compete with the L.A. Angels in the division.

If the A’s ride Holliday and the young pitching to a potential postseason berth in the four-team A.L. West, Beane will be happy to accept a pair of compensation picks in the 2010 draft when the slugger bolts for free agency. If he does not see his team as a contender, though, he will have the opportunity to add a quality group of prospects—most likely a better package than what he gave up here—by dealing him at the trade deadline to a contender.

Either way, Oakland sets itself up to compete immediately next year—though the Angels are still the clear-cut favorites, especially if they bring back Mark Teixeira or sign Manny Ramirez—without facing any serious long-term consequences. It was surprising, certainly, but was a great deal for the A’s.