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A.L. Silver Slugger Snubs
Nov 13, 2008 | 8:47PM | report this

The managers and coaches made some pretty big gaffes in the Gold Glove balloting this year. Granted, it is difficult to quantify defensive value; there have been advancements in new metrics, but there is still a lot of room for improvement.

When it comes to handing out offensive awards, on the other hand, the process is considerably easier. At least it should be.

Well, the Silver Slugger awards were handed out this afternoon, and there were once again some serious snubs.

In a chart that I put together, I listed the winner of the Silver Slugger Award at each position in the American League. For several important offensive categories—from batting average to OPS—I listed each winner’s stats and league positional rank in the respective metric.

This makes it pretty easy to see which players deserved to win, and which players simply did not.

Morneau did not deserve to win the award at first base. He had a fine season—.300/.374/.499—but the voters apparently selected him for his RBI total, 129. This is unfortunate, because RBIs are a function of opportunity, and are thus a poor tool on their own for comparing hitters. In the stats that really have a direct impact on scoring runs and winning (OBP, OPS), he ranked third and fourth, respectively, at his position.

Kevin Youkilis should have won instead; he ranked higher in every category except RBIs. Youkilis simply had fewer RBI chances, and actually had a better slash stats line with runners in scoring position than the winner. The Boston infielder batted .374/.445/.708/1.091 OPS with RISP. Morneau, though he was excellent with men on second and third in his own right, ended up at .348/.443/.602/1.045 OPS; essentially, he only had more opportunities.

Carlos Pena, of the Tampa Bay Rays, would also have been a better choice here.

Clearly, then, the Morneau M.V.P. discussion is fairly misguided, especially considering his position and defensive indifference.

At second base, one could make the case for Texas Rangers star Ian Kinsler. Kinsler missed a large chunk of time with a season-ending injury in August, though. Pedroia had an excellent offensive season, anyway, and will garner serious consideration for M.V.P. He nearly won a batting title, hitting .328. But he finished second at the position, behind Kinsler, in nearly every other category. He was more valuable overall than his second base counterpart from Texas when defense is factored into the equation, but offensively—the criteria for this award—he was not the best candidate.

Rodriguez was an easy choice at the hot corner. He had a down season by his standards, but led the position in nearly every category except RBIs. Although he took some flack, it is hard to criticize any player who posts a.573 slugging percentage, .965 OPS and ranks in the top 10 in the majors in V.O.R.P. His partner on the left side of the infield, Jeter, was justified in winning at shortstop. He is no longer that great in the field, but he is still a productive hitter; .300/.363/.408 is exceptional at the position.

Hamilton, the majors’ RBI leader and Quentin, the frontrunner for M.V.P. until his season-ending injury, are each deserving of the honor. They each finished in the top three among A.L. outfielders in OPS. Quentin broke out in his new surroundings in Chicago, ranking first in home runs and OPS, second in OBP and fourth in RBIs.

Sizemore is one of the best all-around outfielders in the majors and has great on-base skills, but he only finished in the top five in two categories: home runs (tied for third) and slugging percentage (fifth).

Jermaine Dye (.885 OPS), Vladimir Guerrero (.886), Nick Markakis (.897) and Magglio Ordonez (.869) all could have been selected for the third spot.

Mauer at catcher was perhaps the easiest choice at any position. He is a true rarity—a strong defensive catcher who can hit. He won his second batting title while getting on base at a plus-.400 clip; he is not only the best-hitting catcher in his league, but all of baseball.

Huff was a force in Baltimore. He had one of the best single-season performances of his career—even better than his 37-home run campaign with Tampa Bay—finishing with 32 homers, a .912 OPS and 108 RBIs.

But the DH silver bat should have gone to Milton Bradley, who hit .321/.436/.563, with a DH-best .999 OPS.

There were not any major, major blunders, but again the managers and coaches erred in a few of their selections.

To reach Tyler Hissey, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com.

18 Comments | Add a comment   categories: Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins, New York Yankees, Alex Rodriguez, Cleveland Indians, Texas Rangers, Baltimore Orioles, Aubrey Huff, Tampa Bay Rays, Carlos Pena, Boston Red Sox, Kevin Youkilis, Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia
 
Handing Out The Hardware
Nov 09, 2008 | 7:01PM | report this


In my opinion, choosing award selections is one of the most enjoyable parts of writing about baseball (click here to compare my mid-season award picks). And I just could not help myself,  so I decided to update my picks back  from September. Throughout the week, I will offer my analysis on the actual winners as the awards are announced, with the R.O.Y awards coming on Monday. Here are my final picks.

American League

Most Valuable Player:

Justin Morneau is a name commonly being thrown around in the discussion for MVP. Traditional voters are infatuated with one statistic above all others—RBIs—and Morneau finished second in the league, behind Josh Hamilton, with 129. In fact, his high RBI total was the biggest reason why he won the award back in 2006, when there were several stronger options—including his teammate, Joe Mauer. Still, he was a key cog in a Twins’ offense that was tremendous with runners in scoring position (even if some pundits dismiss it as a statistical fluke), hitting .302/.375/.502, with 21 homers. But I still do not think that he deserves the award this year, as Mauer once again was more valuable to his team; Morneau does not even rank in the top 30 in the league in OPS.

Regardless of how you feel about OPS as a stat, an MVP candidate at a corner infield position should at least rank in the Top 10. Period.

Mauer, who won his second batting title, finished the season hitting .328/.413/.451, with 44 extra-base hits, 85 RBIs and 84 walks. When you consider that he also ranks among the premier defensive catchers in the game and has received plus scores on how he has helped handle and worked with a young group of Minnesota pitchers, it makes it all the more impressive. At such a defense-first position, his offensive output was outstanding, though, at 25, he still has room to continue to hit for more power.

To put into simple terms: finding 20-homer, 120-RBI, sub-.900 OPS production from a first baseman like Morneau is much easier to find than a catcher who fields his position well and can post a .400-plus on-base percentage and .864 OPS like Mauer.

Cleveland Indians outfielder Grady Sizemore put together a fine season as well, but will be hurt by the weak underperformance of his teammates. Sizemore, playing an excellent center field, hit .268/.374/.502, with 33 home runs and 90 RBIs. Although he will not get many votes because his team finished so far out of contention, he added as much value to the Indians as any of the aforementioned players. Is it his fault that Trafis Hafner got hurt? Or Victor Martinez? Did he make Fausta Carmona regress so severely? No, all he did was perform, providing top-notch defense and an .876 OPS and 101 runs scored. The young star places fourth on my make-believe ballot, and perhaps deserves to be ranked higher.

Dustin Pedroia, the diminutive second sacker for the Boston Red Sox, is a fine candidate as well. Although he is generously listed at 5’9—he is closer to 5’6— Pedroia, who finished second in the league in hitting, performed like a 6’4, 220-pound slugger, posting a line of .326/.376/.493 and bashing 17 home runs.

Pedroia also made tremendous improvements in his defense at a keystone position in every defensive metric out there, even winning his first Gold Glove. And when the injury bug bit the Boston lineup, he picked up the slack to help the Red Sox hold their strong lock on the AL Wild Card, delivering several huge hits down the stretch while playing his excellent defense at second base. Like Mauer, he posted an impressive OPS number (.869) considering his defensive position. Although he would not get my vote, he seems like the likely winner, since his on-field production comes close to matching the story.

Still, in my opinion, another Boston player is more deserving—Kevin Youkilis.

Youkilis’ .958 OPS was good for fourth in the AL. Unlike the players who finished ranked ahead of him—Milton Bradley (only 414 at-bats), Quentin and Alex Rodriguez), he has a realistic chance to take home the honors. Justifiably so, too. He finished the year hitting .312/.390/.569, with 29 home runs and 115 RBIs, adding to the legend of the “Greek God of Walks.” Not only did he post strong offensive numbers, he played excellent defense at first and third base (filling in when Mike Lowell went down) and was a constant presence in the Red Sox’s lineup when several of his teammates were on the disabled list. When compared to Morneau, he added substantially greater real value offensively while giving his club better glove work and actually hit better with RISP.

Honorable mention also goes to Bradley, who led the league in OBP and OPS but missed too much time due to injury, Hamilton, who paced the circuit with 130 RBIs, and Rodriguez.

My picks:

1. Kevin Youkilis

2. Joe Mauer

3. Dustin Pedroia

4. Grady Sizemore

Cy Young:

Unlike the MVP race, this was a pretty easy choice here. Cliff Lee went from a demotion to the minors to the best pitcher in the league in less than a calendar year. Lee was truly brilliant, posting a 22-3 W/L mark, the lowest ERA (2.54) in the AL and a ridiculous 170-to-34 K/W ratio. The Cleveland Indians left-hander proved that his early-season success—he went 12-2 with a 2.31 ERA before the All-Star break, earning the start at Yankee Stadium—was not a fluke. He was nearly perfect in the second half by winning 10 decisions as Cleveland played its way to a respectable finish. To sum up his slam-dunk case: he finished the season ranked first in the league in ERA, winning percentage (.880) and wins, second in complete games (4), innings pitched (223.1) and WHIP (1.11), and ninth in strikeouts.

Although Lee is the clear-cut winner, there is a decent case to be made for Roy Halladay as well. Halladay, one of three pitchers in the league to win 20 games, anchored a Toronto Blue Jays pitching staff that finished with the lowest group ERA on the circuit. As he does every year, it seems, he continued to put up zeroes on the scoreboard in Toronto, posting a 2.78 ERA in a league-leading 246.0 innings pitched.

While CC Sabathia threw his share of complete games for the Milwaukee Brewers, Doc Halladay has him beat. Quite amazingly considering how few starters go a full nine innings these days, he finished the season with nine complete games on his own. There are a lot of teams that would be happy to have that total dispersed among the entire starting rotation, let alone one pitcher. Pitching in the ridiculously competitive East division, he also led the league in WHIP (1.05), using his excellent control and command to shut offenses down every fifth day.

Jon Lester had an outstanding season for Boston, going 16-6 with a 3.21 ERA and 152-to-66 K/W ratio. Lester, who threw a no-hitter against the Kansas City Royals in May, finished fourth in the league in ERA and winning percentage and seventh in innings pitched while limiting opponents to a .256/.318/.368 line. The 24-year-old southpaw, who emerged as the new ace of the Red Sox’s staff, has a chance to take home some votes.

Credit also must be given to Mike Mussina, who joined the 20-win club for the first time of his potentially Hall-of-Fame career. Mussina had one of his best seasons ever to anchor a New York rotation decimated with injuries, going 20-9 with a 3.37 ERA for a defensively challenged Yankees team.

Lester’s teammate, Daisuke Matsuzaka, should garner some votes as well, after finishing 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA. Matsuzaka, however, consistently struggled with his command, walking 94 in 167.2 innings, and does not deserve to be seriously considered.

Closer Francisco Rodriguez picked up 62 saves in 69 chances for the Los Angeles Angels, breaking Bobby Thigpen’s previous single-season mark of 57. Lost in the media hype, though, he also set the benchmark for save chances, a function of opportunity. Due to the Angels’ weak offense and emphasis on small-ball, the right-hander was given a greater number of opportunities to hold a lead in low-scoring games than any other pitcher in baseball history.

Among major league relievers who registered more than 40.0 innings pitched, Rodriguez did not finish in the top 15 in ERA (19th) or K/9 (19th), top 40 in opponents’ OPS (42), top 60 in WHIP (69) or top 100 in K/W ratio. The flame throwing right-hander, who posted an opponents’ line of .216/.314/.316, led the league in only two statistics, saves and save opportunities. While he grabbed headlines for breaking the record, it is worth mentioning that he was the only pitcher who was given enough chances to even come within four saves of the previous all-time mark—Jose Valverde finished second in SVO with 52. for these reasons, there are about four relievers who should be considered ahead of him.

My picks:

1. Cliff Lee

2. Roy Halladay

3. Jon Lester

4. Mike Mussina

Rookie of the Year:

Evan Longoria is perhaps an easier choice than Lee in the Cy Young category. After Longoria was promoted to the Rays in early April, he quickly emerged as one of the best young third baseman in the game. Although he missed some time on the disabled down the stretch, he put up excellent numbers for a rookie in only 131 games: 27 home runs, 85 RBIs, .874 OPS. Not to mention, he played excellent defense at third base, allowing Akinori Iwamura to move across the diamond to second. His arrival, combined with a few other defensive changes, enabled the Rays to make the move from worst-to-first in team defense. The Rays’ run prevention efforts, in fact, are the ultimate reason why the Rays won the AL East for the first time in their 11-year history.

Longoria’s play at third base was a major reason why the club converted more balls put into play into outs than any other team in the majors, as the Rays finished the regular season with the best defensive efficiency rating. Throw in a slash stats line of .272/.343/.531 and a lot of big hits along the way, and you get Tampa Bay’s real MVP—with apologies to Jason Bartlett—and the easy choice for top rookie.

Fans in Chicago probably have a different take, though, as Alexei Ramirez has exceeded all expectations with his first-year performance for the White Sox. Ramirez, a nifty defender in his own right and a sensational athlete, belted 21 homers, including a rookie record five grand slams, and 77 RBIs However, he struggled to get on base enough (.317 OBP, only 18 walks ) and was not nearly as productive as Longoria.

Armando Galarraga deserves some love here, too. While Dontrelle Willis was seemingly walking nearly ever hitter, Gary Sheffield was sitting near replacement-level, the Tigers’ pitching staff was in shambles, Carlos Guillen showed that he could not handle either corner infield spot defensively, Brandon Inge played out of position and Justin Verlander was busy dropping 17 decisions, the disappointing version of the 2008 Tigers had one pleasant surprise in Galarraga. The rookie right-hander went 13-6 with a 3.68 ERA, 126 punchouts and a 1.19 WHIP in 28 starts.

Staying in the Central, rookie infielder Mike Aviles had a fine debut season for the Royals. Aviles batted .325//354/.480, with 10 home runs and 53 RBIs in 419 at-bats, providing one of the few offensive bright spots in Kansas City. At 27, he, is obviously old for a rookie and is unlikely to turn into a superstar. Still, an .834 OPS for a shortstop is quite impressive, and will be difficult for some voters to overlook.

A case could be made for Joba Chamberlain and Jacoby Ellsbury, pre-season favorites, as well, in addition to Minnesota speedster Denard Span and Oakland Athletics reliever Brad Ziegler, whose scoreless innings streak provided one of the year’s highlights.

My picks:

1. Evan Longoria

2. Alexei Ramirez

3. Armando Galarraga

4. Joba Chamberlain

Manager of the Year:

Ron Gardenhire did a tremendous job, yet again, getting the Twins to play hard day in, day out, helping his team exceed all expectations with the departure of Torii Hunter and Johan Santana. My pick, though, is Joe Maddon, who instituted a culture of winning into the Rays’ clubhouse. Every move, it seems, worked out for Maddon during the regular season as the Rays went from the joke of the league to AL East champions. He did a heck of a job, really, and was able to motivate his players to buy into the 9=8 concept—nine players play together as a team to become one of the eight playoff teams. Well, though he received some tremendous help by a front office that provided him with a much-improved roster designed to shine at run prevention, he did exactly that.

My picks:

1. Joe Maddon

2. Ron Gardenhire

3. Terry Francona

4. Mike Scioscia

National League:

Most Valuable Player:

The term valuable is interpreted loosely when it comes to baseball, and many people think that a player must play for a contending team to garner attention for the award. After all, a last-place club could still finish last even if their star first baseman did not mash 50 homers, right? I do not necessarily agree with that mindset, though, as often times too many legitimate candidates miss out on winning awards like this because of the poor performances of their teammates.

With that being said, it is hard not to seriously think about naming CC Sabathia the MVP in the National League after his masterful performance in the second half. Although Sabathia did not spend even half of a season in the league, he was sensational (insert hyperbolic word here) in his new surroundings, going 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA. Not only that, he practically resurrected the Brewers’ quest to reach the postseason for the first time since 1982 on his own. If Sabathia did not provide so many quality innings for Milwaukee, it is hard to imagine the Brew Crew even sniffing the Wild Card down the stretch. Sure, he was only with his team from July on, and was only able to pitch every (for him, third perhaps) fifth day, but the larger-than-life lefty was otherworldly.

Although the Brewers parted ways with top hitting prospect Matt LaPorta, the return on investment—just by ending the playoff drought—was well worth it, as Sabathia turned in one of the best post All-Star break runs in baseball history. I would not vote for him, but he deserves to at least be in the discussion.

Ditto for Manny Ramirez, who had a similar effect on the Los Angeles Dodgers. After coming over from Boston at the trade deadline, Ramirez singlehandedly transformed Los Angeles’s lineup from average to dynamic. He posted Nintendo-like numbers in L.A., hitting .396/.489/.743, for a whopping 1.232 OPS, with 17 homers and 53 RBIs. As ugly as his departure from the Red Sox was, he was also reportedly a much better teammate, too, helping to add a new sense of calm in the Dodgers’ clubhouse.

Ramirez made the difference as the Dodgers' young talent began to flourish, helping Joe Torre’s club win the weak N.L West division with 84 wins. However, Man-Ram simply did not play in enough games in the N.L. to get my vote, as even Sabathia practically had a month on him. Unfortunately, his insane postseason performance does not count for consideration in this award, which obviously hurts his case.

My choice, then, is Albert Pujols, the best all-around player in the majors all year. Pujols helped the Cardinals remain in contention until around 10 days left in the season, which exceeded all pre-season expectations for the organization. In perhaps a typical Pujols year, he finished with a .357/.462/.653 line, 37 home runs, 116 RBIs and 104 walks to pace the game with a 1.114 OPS. Not only that, he played great defense at first base, which enabled him to win his third consecutive Fielding Bible Award at the position. Without his bat in the lineup for 148 games, St. Louis would have fallen out of contention by July. He will lose out on votes because his team missed out on the playoffs, but, as the most productive offensive contributor in the game, he made more of an impact for his team. Period.

Ryan Howard led the league with 48 home runs and 146 RBIs, getting hot at the right time (1.274 OPS in September) to help the Philadelphia Phillies to their second consecutive NL East championship (and eventual World Series championship). But, the games in the first half count too, and I have a difficult time voting for a player with a .339 on-base percentage. Pujols has the edge in the stats that really count, played much better defense and would be the slam dunk pick if he had better teammates.

While I am a big Howard guy, he, like Morneau in the other league, did not rank in the top 10 in the league in OPS or VORP, and was not even the most valuable member of the Phillies.

That honor goes to Chase Utley, who played sensational defense at second base and hit .292/.380/.535, with 33 home runs and 104 RBIs. He finished with one of the highest VORP—Value Over Replacement Player, which is certainly not a perfect stat and does not account for defense—totals ever by a second baseman, 62.2, which was nearly 30 points higher than Howard’s mark. He also ranked as the most effective defensive player in the majors, at any position, in John Dewan’s plus/minus system.

Still, Pujols added the most real value on the diamond, and gets my vote.

My picks:

1. Albert Pujols

2. Chase Utley

3. Manny Ramirez

4. CC Sabathia

Cy Young:

Again, though he only made 17 starts in the NL, Sabathia will garner some votes for carrying the Brewers on his back and pitching them into the postseason.

Brandon Webb, because of his high wins total, is perhaps the favorite. Webb, Mr. Consistency, put up another fine year on the mound: 22-7 record, 3.30 ERA, 183-to-65 K/W ratio, 1.20 WHIP. The 2006 Cy Young struggled at an inopportune time down the stretch, though, which may hurt his case. Yet, along with Dan Haren, he deserves credit for helping the Arizona Diamondbacks stay competitive, even when things got ugly for that offense.

Although either pitcher cannot match the win total belonging to Webb, Tim Lincecum of the San Francisco Giants and Santana of the New York Mets are more deserving of the award, in ’08. Again, this proves why wins/loss record is a misleading, ineffective method for judging a pitcher’s overall effectiveness. Seriously, it is 2008, and we know better.

Lincecum, pitching for the lowly Giants, went 18-5 with a 2.62 ERA, second to Santana, and a league-best 256 strikeouts. Scouts may fear that he will break down eventually, as his mechanics are certainly unorthodox. But since he has come into the league, he has been one of the most successful starters in the majors, and it all came together for him this season as he struck out 10.35 batters per nine innings and limited opponents to a .223 batting average and .614 OPS. For the traditionalists who are infatuated with wins, because baseball is a “team game” they say, consider this: Lincecum left the game with the lead on five different occasions, destined for a win, yet saw his bullpen fail to hold it. Team game, indeed.

Still, my pick is Santana, who came over to the Mets in the blockbuster trade this offseason and then went on to sign a huge deal to stay in New York. Boy, did he earn his paycheck, for year one at least? While New York missed out on the playoffs, again, by blowing a late-season lead, do not point any fingers at the dominant southpaw. He finished with the lowest ERA (2.53) on the circuit, striking out 206 in 234.1 innings pitched. While his 16-7 record is nothing too sexy, go back and read the preceding paragraph. The man pitched well enough to win 20 games, easily, and saw a mediocre bullpen, featuring the likes of Luis Ayala, Scott Schoenweis and Brian Stokes, blow several of his leads.

Even though the New York media was calling Santana’s first year in Queens a bust at the break—despite his 2.84 ERA—he shut them up with a great second half, going 7-0 with a 2.37 ERA and .231 opponents’ batting average in his final 14 starts. He delivered in big spots, too, like on the final Saturday of September, when he saved the Mets’ season (at that point) by putting together a complete game victory on three days’ rest. So, with sincere apologies to Lincecum, Santana gets my vote, as he did not have the benefit of pitching in the weak-hitting West.

An under-the-radar candidate deserving of honorable mention is Brad Lidge, who was by far the most dominant closer in the league. Lidge was invaluable to the Phillies, going a perfect 41-for-41 in save opportunities and posting a 1.95 ERA. K-Rod may be getting the press, but Lidge had the better campaign—he just had fewer save chances. Just ask the Mets how valuable a stud relief pitcher can be. When Billy Wagner went down, it seems, so did the season for the Metropolitans. So, though he is a dark horse, do not be surprised when he gets some votes.

My picks:

1. Johan Santana

2. Tim Lincecum

3. Brad Lidge

4. Brandon Webb

Rookie of the Year:

Geovany Soto has a better chance of winning this award than Vincent Chase has of getting some in the next episode of Entourage. Soto, the first rookie catcher to start the All-Star game for the National League, was perhaps the most valuable player for the team that posted the best regular season in the N.L. Playing a defense-first position, he batted .285/.364/.504, with 23 bombs, an .868 OPS and 86 RBIs. For that production, while putting on the mask for 131 games at catcher and handling the Cubs’ staff at a premium spot on the field, he deserves some MVP consideration as well. The best years area head for the 25-year-old stud as he continues to establish himself as the best offensive catcher in the league.

Like Longoria in the other league, Soto is the clear-cut pick here. But Joey Votto comes in second, in my opinion. Despite receiving less fan fare and attention than his fellow rookie teammate on the Cincinnati Reds, Jay Bruce, Votto put together a nice first campaign: .297/.368/.506, with 24 homers and 84 RBIs. The 25-year-old first baseman, with Bruce, is one of the key pieces of a nice young nucleus that the Reds have to build around for the future.

Jair Jurrjens had a nice debut season on the mound for the Atlanta Braves, going 13-10, with a 3.68 ERA.

Soto is the only pick for this award, though, and perhaps has a chance to win the award unanimously.

My picks:

1. Geovany Soto

2. Joey Votto

3. Jair Jurrjens

4. Jay Bruce

Manager of the Year:

Part of me wants to give this award to Joe Torre, who left New York for the West Coast and helped guide a diverse group of youngsters and veterans to the NL West title. But, it is exactly that: the Dodgers, who gave up so many prospects in pre-deadline deals, absolutely needed to win the inferior West. If not, the season would have been labeled an absolute failure. To their credit, they did what they had to do, ending up as the best of the worst after acquiring Ramirez, who helped them unseat Arizona for the title in the majors' weakest division.

My pick, though, goes to Charlie Manuel, who led the Phillies to another division championship. Manuel may not come off as the most intellectual baseball manager, but he did the most important thing that a manager can do: earn his players’ respect. And, from making an example out of Jimmy Rollins after he failed to run out a ground ball earlier this summer to keeping the clubhouse loose, he got the best out of his players in 2008. If the voters, who had to turn in their ballots in before the playoffs started, could account for playoff performance, the World Series-winning manager would easily take home the honor.

Fredi Gonzalez and Manny Acta are also excellent managers, though they were not exactly left with talented rosters to work with. A manager really needs the proper players—as a carpenter needs supplies—to ever have a chance of competing at this level. Which is why bad teams can have great managers sometimes, and great teams can have bad managers.

In Chicago, the Cubs have both in Lou Piniella. While the Cubs have a huge payroll, a great market, and a talented club, Piniella once again did a fine job, steering Chicago to the best record in the NL through 162 regular season games.

Still, Manuel gets my vote. (Note: he was my selection on September 29 as well.)

My picks:

1. Charlie Manuel

2. Lou Piniella

3. Fredi Gonzalez

4. Joe Torre

To voice your disagreements with my picks, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com

8 Comments | Add a comment   categories: St. Louis Cardinals, Albert Pujols, MLB, Tyler's Take, Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Texas Rangers, Kevin Youkilis, Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins, Philadelphia Phillies, Ryan Howard, Chicago Cubs, Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds, Jair Jurrjens, Atlanta Braves, Brandon Webb, Arizona Diamondbacks
 
MLB Links: Tuesday 11/4
Nov 04, 2008 | 7:58AM | report this

—According to Buster Olney, the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees are expected to engage in a heated battle for Mark Teixeira’s services. While there is speculation that the Red Sox are only intending to drive the Yankees’ price up by inquiring about the switch-hitting slugger, Olney believes that Theo Epstein and co. have a legitimate interest.

Teixeira has excellent on-base skills and power, which would fit perfectly in the middle of the Boston lineup. The Red Sox, who led the league with a .358 team on-base percentage, could shift incumbent first baseman Kevin Youkilis to third base. Youikilis, who is a realistic M.V.P. candidate, is one of the majors’ best defensive first baseman, but came up in the minors on the left side of the infield and did an admirable job filling in for Mike Lowell at third base down the stretch. There is no telling if Lowell will ever regain his 2007 form again, and he may be a likely trade candidate if Boston does indeed sign Teixeira.

—Jake Peavy is not the only member of the San Diego Padres on the trading block. According to the San Diego Union-Tribune, the organization is exploring trade offers for shortstop Khalil Greene, who hit only .213/.260/.339 and struck out 100 times in 105 games for the Padres this season. Greene, who is due to make $6.5-million next season, will become a free agent after 2009. He might be a good buy-low option for a club in need of a shortstop, anyway, and a change of scenery might be in his best interest.

As Tom Krasovic writes, “Relations between Greene and the Padres probably are not ideal. After Greene fractured his left hand on July 30, when he wacked a storage chest at Petco Park following a foulball of the shin and his 100th strikeout, the Padres stopped paying his salary, according to the players union. A dispute between the Padres and the union ensued, and though the Padres eventually paid Greene his remaining salary, the club filed a grievance in an attempt to recoup up to $1.47 million in salary. Greene left the club some two weeks before the season ended.”

According to Krasovic, the Baltimore Orioles, Cincinnati Reds and Detroit Tigers have all expressed interest.

The Reds’ team defense was atrocious in 2008, ranking 29th in the majors in defensive efficiency—the rate at which batted balls hit into play are converted into outs. Adding a sure-handed defender at such an important defensive position potentially could do wonders. The Reds could also move Brandon Phillips, one of the majors’ best defensive second baseman, to his natural position, shortstop, if they do not make a deal to upgrade at the position.

The Tigers, after the failed Edgar Renteria experiment, are also in need of a starting shortstop.

The Padres, however, do not have an immediate replacement at short, and will likely address the hole on the market if Greene is indeed dealt.  

—Will the Reds go from worst-to-first in 2009, following in the Tampa Bay Rays’ footsteps? John Erardi of the Cincinnati Enquirer is not so sure.

  —In a post the other day, I briefly touched upon the recently released 2008 Fielding Bible Awards. Well, I forgot to mention that the panelists voted Derek Jeter as the worst defensive shortstop in the majors, as mentioned in this New York Post article.

  A group that tracks every ball hit in the majors says Derek Jeter is the worst fielder in baseball.

Stats guru Bill James, author of the "Baseball Abstract," and a panel of nine other voters, ranked Jeter 22nd among all major-league shortstops, with one calling Jeter "the least effective defensive player in the major leagues, at any position."

Jeter received one 10th-place vote in balloting for the 2008 Fielding Bible Awards, announced yesterday. One panel member comes from Baseball Info Solutions (BIS), a group that ... well, just say they do their research.

"They watched film of every major-league game, and had recorded every ball off the bat by the direction in which it was hit [the vector], the type of hit [groundball, flyball, line-drive, popup, etc.] and by how hard the ball was hit [softly hit, medium, hard hit]," according to James. ... "They had analyzed the outcomes to determine who was best at turning hit balls into outs," James wrote. "One of their conclusions was that Jeter was probably the least effective defensive player in the major leagues, at any position."

—Joe Smith of the St. Petersburg Times conducted an interesting Q & A with Rays manager Joe Maddon.

7 Comments | Add a comment   categories: San Diego Padres, Jake Peavy, Khalil Greene, Boston Red Sox, Kevin Youkilis, Mike Lowell, New York Yankees, Cincinnati Reds, Baltimore Orioles, Detroit Tigers, Edgar Renteria, MLB, Derek Jeter, Tampa Bay Rays, joe maddon
 
What A Game: Rays Even Series
Oct 12, 2008 | 7:32AM | report this

The Tampa Bay Rays had to win on Saturday night. Trailing 1-0 in the American League Championship Series, they were faced with the possibility of heading to Fenway Park down two games to zilch, with one of the best starters in baseball, lefty Jon Lester, waiting to pitch in Game 3 for the Boston Red Sox.

But, in a marathon, back-and-forth thriller, those pesky Rays found a way to get it done, beating the Red Sox in yet another one-run contest between the two clubs. 

The game, though, started off more like a home run derby than anything else.

Scott Kazmir continued to struggle in the first inning, throwing 38 pitches before getting to make the walk back to the dugout for the first time—similar to his 37-pitch first against the Chicago White Sox in the Division Series.

Unlike his performance in the ALDS, however, the rest of the outing did not go as well for Kazmir, who surrendered three jacks and gave up five earned runs in 4.1 innings.

When he was taken out of the game in the fifth, though, little did he know that he was still hours away from having to speak to reporters.

The reason: the other supposed ace, Josh Beckett—best postseason pitcher of this generation, as many people like to call him—was equally as unimpressive. Beckett did not have his normal punch on his heater, and also struggled with his command, giving up eight earned runs on nine hits while also failing to make it out of the fifth.

Evan Longoria, the shoe-in for AL Rookie of the Year, was able to work his way out of a rough playoff slump off the big right-hander from Texas. Longoria homered in the bottom half of the first—to bring the score to a 2-all tie, as Boston scraped across two during the nightmare of a first by the fellow Texan, Kazmir—to start the Cowbell parade and homer frenzy at Tropicana Field.

Dustin Pedroia then went yard in the top of the third, answering right back to the Longoria blast.
Then B.J. Upton hit a  bomb, making it a possibility that he will leave the yard more times in the postseason than he did during the regular season—four to nine, if you are scoring at home. Upton has now hit safely in five postseason games since going 0-for-5 in the first game of the ALDS.

Shortly after that, Carl Crawford singled in Longoria, who doubled in his second at-bat, to give the Rays a 4-3 lead.

Add in a bunch more home runs—Cliff Floyd, Pedroia (again), Kevin Youkilis and Jason Bay—while each starter was out on the mound.

But after the Rays chased Beckett and put up three runs to take an 8-6 lead in the fifth, the game changed completely, from a slugfest to a relief pitching duel.

Joe Maddon was forced to get creative with his bullpen, knowing that this was essentially a must-win ballgame for his club. Maddon, the unconventional thinker and perhaps the favorite to be named top skipper in the AL, brought in one of his best late-inning guys, Grant Balfour, in the fifth. Balfour, however, was not himself, walking two while giving up a bomb.

While many people were ready to criticize this choice—as Balfour could have been used later—if the Rays had lost, lefty J.P. Howell bailed out his teammate by continuing to put up zeroes. Howell, an underrated force in the Rays' bullpen all year, lasted 1.1 innings, getting some pretty big outs.

The Red Sox bullpen was also able to shut down the Rays’ offense, as everyone from Manny Delcarmen to closer Jonathan Papelbon put up zeroes until Mike Timlin entered the game in its final frame.

Dan Wheeler, despite allowing Pedroia to score from third base after an ugly 2-0 wild pitch, was huge. Wheeler threw 48 pitches, a season high, in 3.1 huge innings with Maddon's bullpen nearly tapped out. 

But that ended when Timlin walked the bases loaded, albeit one an intentional free pass, in the eleventh. The best player in the majors with a Columbia degree, the speedy Fernando Perez, was then able to score on a sacrifice fly from Upton, whose flyball was just deep enough to give the Rays the win in extras to tie the ALCS at one game apiece.

Oh, some guy named David Price got the win.

Add this one to the ESPN Classic library, because the two best teams in baseball provided a game to remember, and I only hope that the series will remain this exciting throughout.

Inside the Box Score

A few thoughts on the game that popped into my head.

• Going into Fenway, the Rays have much better chances now. This win was huge. But can the Rays rely on Kazmir to come back in game six? He has not been efficient with his pitches, seemingly laboring through five innings in nearly every outing lately. And, is his elbow still bothering him? It is telling that he is hardly using his slider, once an X factor for him. 

• Ditto for Beckett. Is he fully healthy right now, and can he come back strong in game six?

• Longoria picked the right time to get back on track. Whether it was running into Beckett at the right time or because of Maddon’s pre-game talk with him, he had a day, finishing 3-for-5, with a homer, three runs scored and three RBIs. He was mired in a 0-for-13 slump entering the game. Pedroia seems like his back on track, too. 

• Floyd hit a bomb, though many people may have forgot about that since he was removed in place of Willy Aybar so early in the game.

• Jason Varitek put up another 0-for-the day. He really just cannot hit anymore. I know he handles pitchers well, is the captain and has all the “intangibles,” but, if I were a GM, I would stay away when he hits free agency following the postseason. He hit .220/.313/.359 in 131 games over the year, and is now 3-for-21 in the playoffs.

• Youkilis, on the other hand, continues to impress. He finished the night 3-for-6, with another homer, and is now batting .357/.400/.571 in six playoff games. He truly is a great player. All those scouts could not have been any more wrong about him. Not a lot of people may realize it, but he finished sixth in the AL in batting average (.312), sixth in on-base percentage (.390), fourth in OPS (.958), third in slugging (.569) and fourth in RBI (115).

• The game took five hours and 27 minutes. Now, that is a lot of cowbell.

• Price recorded two outs in the 11th frame after walking J.D. Drew, earning the win. The former first-round pick out of Vanderbilt now has more playoffs wins than CC Sabathia. After dominating the minors in his first professional campaign, the USA Today Minor League Player of the Year has allowed only three earned runs in 15.0 innings pitched with the Rays, including this series, since getting called up on September 13. And, though it is a bit premature, he seems ready to overtake Kazmir as the lefty “ace” on the Tampa Bay staff.

• Jason Bay has three home runs, nine RBIs and a line of .440/.517/.920, with a ridiculous 1.437 OPS, in six playoff games, all without any Jason-Being-Jason antics grabbing the headlines. Sure, losing Manny was huge, but the Red Sox seem to be doing just fine without him.

One more thing: Ben Zobrist's walk, when he was attempting to sacrifice bunt, was a tremendous at-bat and totally changed the dynamic of the inning. Zobrist essentially got the same result of a sacrifice, moving up the runner, but did not pay the oh-so-costly price of making an out. 

I will be appearing on the Sports Café with Sean Duade today to discuss the Rays. I will be on from 11:20 to 11:40. Click here to tune in.

8 Comments | Add a comment   categories: MLB, Tampa Bay Rays, Boston Red Sox, Grant Balfour, David Price, Evan Longoria, Kevin Youkilis, Jason Bay
 
Let The Debate Begin
Jun 30, 2008 | 10:29AM | report this
This offseason, Eric SanInosencio had an excellent series, “The Great Debates” running over at Rays Anatomy (currently called Outs Per Swing). SanInosencio, now a podcaster and writer at Baseball Digest Daily, made his case for several up-and-coming Tampa Bay Rays’ stars, comparing players such as Matt Garza and B.J. Upton to other top young players from the American League East.

Prompted by a few questions on the subject, I decided to do my own version of the debates. Solely focusing on the three best teams—record-wise at the midway point—in the American League East, here are my picks for the top players at each position among the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees and Rays. While the Baltimore Orioles are exceeding expectations and the Toronto Blue Jays have an excellent starting rotation, I decided to leave out the teams for this meaningless exercise.

My selections are based mostly off of this season's performance, albeit over a small sample size. More than that, though, these are the players who I would choose solely for the rest of 2008. There are obviously a ton of factors—salary, age, durability, roster needs, years under team control—that would realistically factor into these decisions if an actual general manager were making the picks. While keeping in mind contracts to an extent—and not based solely off track record—here are my picks, though it is late, and this was harder than I thought it would be.

C: Jorge Posada, New York Yankees: While he has spent a large chunk of the first half on the disabled list, Posada has still managed to post an OPS of .826 in 122 at-bats. Plus, he has been one of the premier offensive players at a defense-first position for a long time, and finished last season with a ridiculous .969 OPS, 20 homers and 90 RBIs. I said I would not go on track record, but here I have done it already, on the first pick. When he is healthy, though, Posada is productive. Period. He is making $13,100,000 this season, however, and Dioner Navarro--who has been one of the top three offensive catchers (currently batting .317/.368/.444) this season, is younger and is improving defensively--is making $412,500. Clearly, from a pure value standpoint, Navarro has to be the guy here.

Purely baseball-wise, Posada is the guy, though he is aging and will hurt the Yankees and will not be able to remain at the position during the back-end years of the deal that he signed this offseason.

1B: Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox: This is a tough one here. Was Carlos Pena's season in 2007 a fluke, or are his struggles this season based off of too small a sample size to read too much into it? Pena had the finest season of any first baseman last year, when he set the Tampa Bay single-season record with 46 homers and finished second in the AL in OPS. The ’07 version of Pena was one of the most prolific hitters in baseball, at a discounted price. He is also an underrated with the glove as well.

However, while Pena is healthy again and should rebound to hit for more power in the second half, there are better options here. Jason Giambi and Youkilis, each a legitimate All-Star candidate at the position, are having great seasons while the left-handed Tampa Bay slugger has struggled at times. From a value standpoint, it is hard not to go with Youk, who is only making $3-million this year and always seems to find a way to get on base. He is batting .313/.382/.544 this year with 50 RBIs. While Giambi, who currently ranks fifth in the AL with 17 homers and a .939 OPS, hits for more power, he is making a ridiculous amount of money and it would be unwise for the Yankees to pick up his option for 2009.

2B: Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox: Before the season started, I would have to go with Cano, who many think will win a batting title one day. Well, it will certainly not happen in 2008, as he has a line of .244/.282/.361. Quite frankly, he swings at everything and needs to improve his approach at the plate.

Pedroia is a solid defender, though he is having a down offensive season as well, despite his recent power surge. Iwamura has made a flawless transition to second base, but is not getting on base as frequently as he did last season. He is batting .276/.346/.376, for a .721 OPS, second behind Pedroia among the group. Over the long term, however, it would be hard to with someone other than Cano, who has the most talent and highest upside. Still, he really does need to become more selective.

For the rest of the season, I would pick Pedroia, the AL Rookie of the Year and a World Series hero in 2007. His recent performance—.556/.571/.815 over the past seven games—at the end of June has pushed his batting average back up to .304, and he is among leaders at his position with eight home runs. Plus, the Arizona State product is making under half-a-million dollars, plays steady defense and posted the highest first-half OPS of the trio.

SS: Undecided: This is really a toss-up here. Barlett has been a huge upgrade defensively at shortstop for the Rays, but has the lowest OPS among regular players in the majors. Offensively, he has been arguably the worst hitter in all of baseball throughout the first half. Really, he has been a guaranteed out at the plate, as he is batting a weak .252 (he has only seven extra-base hits) with a sub-.300 on-base percentage.

Jeter is one of the worst—if not the worst—defensive shortstops in baseball, and it is shocking how much he hurts the Yankees with his inability to get to balls to his left or right. In fact, some sabermetricians refer to him as “Past-A-Diving” Jeter, not Derek, because the Yankees announcers are always forced to use that phrase due to his poor range. Plus, he is struggling at the plate as well. He is batting an un-Jeter like .284/.344/.393; that slugging percentage is among the worst for a period of 81 games in his entire career. For $21,600,000 the Yankee captain has not been earning his paycheck with his play on the field. He has been so important to the Yankees for so long, but his days as a productive shortstop—at least fielding-wise—are over.

Then there is Lugo , whose .274/.364/.343 line in the first half has New Englanders begging for the promotion of infield prospect Jed Lowrie.

I must say, wow, this is a tough call. It comes down to Bartlett, the cheapest and best defender of group, or Jeter, the most famous—and overrated, the players got it right in the recent Sports Illustrated poll conducted in spring training—of the trio. Really, it depends on my team's needs. If I have a strong lineup and a pitching staff that induces a lot of ground balls, Bartlett is my guy. But Jeter is a born winner, a future Hall of Famer. If this were a multiple choice test, I would circle in "not enough information."

3B: Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees: Longoria is my mid-season pick for the Rookie of the Year in the American League, but A-Rod is the best hitter on the planet. Period. Although he missed some time with an injury, the New York slugger is batting .322/.404/.591 with 15 home runs—tied with Longoria and Adrian Beltre for third baseman in the AL—and 43 RBIs in only 230 at-bats. Longoria is cheaper, younger and better defensively, but Rodriguez is the superior hitter, by a long ways. If payroll is not an issue, he is the player who I would pick to build my team around. Plus, he essentially pays for himself anyway, with the amount of money he brings in to the Yankees.

Oh, and for those who feel that A-Rod chokes in the playoffs, I have two words for you: sample size.

LF: Manny Ramirez, Boston Red Sox: Carl Crawford has had a disappointing season, as his .321 on-base percentage is terrible for a number two hitter. He is an exciting player to watch, and—by far—the best defender at the position of the trio, if not in the majors, but is really kind of an overrated offensive player. He is a great fantasy player, with all of the steals, but he is not selective enough at the plate, and needs to walk more (21 walks in ’08). He is an excellent left fielder, still, but Manny is the only choice here. Again, payroll is a factor as Crawford is making one-fourth of Ramirez's $20-million for 2008, but Ramirez is one of the most prolific hitters in the game and is having another great season. He is batting .289/.378/.519 with 16 homers and 52 RBIs, for an OPS of .897. J.D. Drew has been more valuable to Boston in the first half, but Ramirez is a deserving candidate to start in the All-Star Game at Yankee Stadium. Johnny Damon? No thanks, I will pass.

I do not know if Manny gets docked or gains points for this.

CF: B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay Rays: Jacoby Ellsbury is fast, a tremendous stolen base threat and Longoria’s biggest competition for the AL Rookie of the Year.

But Upton is the no-brain selection here. While he has not hit for as much power yet this season, he has been the Rays’ most valuable offensive player, batting .286/.399/.415. The former number two overall pick truly has a great approach up there at the plate. There has been some recent talk about the D’Backs considering sending his younger brother, Justin, down to the minors because of his poor showing in June. Thus, perhaos Justin would be wise to attempt to emulate his older brother’s patient approach at the plate. B.J., leading Tampa Bay with 57 bases on balls, has one of the highest on-base percentages in the majors. While he has only five homers, the power should come in the second half. I project he will end up with a line of .290/.395/.440 and around 15 homers. Melky Cabrera is not in the same class of an Ellsbury or an Upton, but all three players are young and cheap at this point.

RF: J.D. Drew, Boston Red Sox: Drew is having a monster season. Although he is an expensive option, he had an excellent first half, batting .304/.417/.570, for a higher OPS (.986) than any Boston player. Drew ranks second in the AL in on-base percentage, runs scored (57, the correlation is no coincidence, folks), third in OPS and slugging percentage and eighth in home runs (15) and walks(57). Apologies to Eric Hinske, who is leading the Rays in OPS, but it is not even close. Bobby Abreu, who will make about one-third of the Rays’ payroll for 2008, is on the decline.

Rotation: Tampa Bay Rays: I am going with the Rays’ rotation, which is the biggest reason for the club’s first-half success. Matt Garza looked like a future ace this week down in Miami, Scott Kazmir is the best lefty in baseball and James Shields is up-and-coming legitmate number two starter. Andy Sonnanstine does not deserve to be 9-3, but he keeps the Rays in games (though he has had a lot of run support). And While Edwin Jackson is consistently inconsistent and struggles with his command at times, he is a tremendous talent. Not to mention, the organization is stacked with a plethora of promising young arms down on the farm they can call up at any time—perhaps even former number one pick David Price, now in Double-A, or Jeff Niemann.

Runner-up here is Boston, with a rotation consisting of Dice-K, the talented Justin Masterson, Clay Buchholz (now in the minors) and, of course, ace Josh Beckett. The Yankees put a lot of eggs in the Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy basket, and the pair combined has won fewer games than Niemann in 2008.

Mike Mussina, a legitimate All-Star candidate, continues to get hitters out, relying more on control and smarts. How long will it last, though? At Hank Steinbrenner’s request, he has turned into the right-handed version of Jamie Moyer. Still, with his lacking stuff, he has little room for error. If his command is ever off, he will struggle to make it through the third inning. Ace Chien-Ming Wang, the majors’ winningest pitcher over the past two seasons, is out until September. So, assuming New York does not acquire a proven starter (but whom, C.C. Sabathia?) at the trade deadline, there is no telling if the Yankees’ past luck of turning guys like Latrell—I mean, Shawn—Chacon into effective one-year pitchers will last. The club will score a lot of runs, but they will give up a lot of runs in the second half as well—though they should remain in the AL East/Wild Card race throughout the summer. Joba Chamberlain is certainly a nice addition, and will help in the second half.

The Yankees compiled a first-half starters’ ERA of 4.50, and the 11 pitchers the team has used to start have combined to post an opponents’ line of .277/.335/.412. Considering that the Moose has been their stopper, it is actually not all that bad.

The Rays, on the other hand, have only used seven starters—Kazmir, Shields, Garza, Jackson, Sonnanstine, Jason Hammel and Niemann—and the group has posted a 3.99 ERA, combining to limit hitters to a line of .255/.314/.403, for an opponents’ OPS of .717.

Setup Man: Dan Wheeler, Tampa Bay Rays: Before Joba joined the Yankees' starting rotation, he was easily the premier setup man in the AL East. Currently, though, the best option to pitch the eighth inning here is Wheeler, who has 18 holds while posting a 1.93 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 37.1 innings pitched.

Closer: Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox: New York pitcher Mariano Rivera is the greatest closer of all-time, and has 24 saves in 28 chances. He is making $15-million this season, however, and is 38 years old. He could break down in the second half. Papelbon, making under $1-million, has been equally effective, going a perfect 24-for-24 in save opportunities in the first half while posting a 2.00 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. He is the youngest of the group as well, obviously. Troy Percival has been invaluable to the Rays--for his pitching and positive influence in the clubhouse. But, judging by his four-walk performance down in Miami last week, he is still a huge question mark for Tampa Bay headed into the season's next 81 games.

Who would you guys pick for these spots?

To reach Tyler Hissey, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com.


4 Comments | Add a comment   categories: Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Derek Jeter, Carl Crawford, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Robinson Cano, Mariano Rivera, Jonathan Papelbon, Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, B.J. Upton, J.D. Drew
 
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ABOUT ME


RaysDigest
Tyler Hissey recently graduated from Eckerd College in St. Petersburg, Florida, with a degree in business administratio
n. In addition to this blog, he covers Major League Baseball, focusing on the Tampa Bay Rays, for the up-and-coming
sports network Scout.com, and his work there is frequently syndicated on Foxsports.com
. To access his work, go to RaysDigest.co
m. In addition to his writing, he is a frequent guest on the Sports Cafe with Sean Duade on Sarasota FM 1220, where he serves as an MLB contributor. Prior to working at Scout, Hissey covered the Rays and Cincinnati Reds for MVN.com, better known as the Most Valuable Network. Before his brief stint with MVN, he wrote over 30 sports articles as a lead columnist at WeTalkSports.
com, a role which he filled during the summer of 2006. A Dean's List student at Eckerd, he was also nominated for the college's Writing Excellence Award during the 2006-2007 school year. To reach him, send an email to TylerHissey@g
mail.com.
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