Just a day after the completion of the World Series, two teams made a fairly interesting player swap this morning. The Kansas City Royals, looking to improve one of the majors’ worst offensive units, acquired power-hitting infielder Mike Jacobs in exchange for a serviceable reliever, Leo Nunez.

At first glance, one might think this is a steal for the Royals.

Mike Jacobs hit a career-high 32 home runs in 477 at-bats while driving in 93 runs. One of four Marlin infielders to join the 25-home run club, he posted the third-best homer-per-at-bat ratio in baseball, 14.8. Kansas City, meanwhile, ranked near the bottom of the pack with 120 home runs as a team. Even more telling, the club has not had a player hit 30-plus home runs since Jermaine Dye did so back in 2000.

It makes sense, right?

Well, no. The problem is that, while Jacobs hit for some power, he had a poor offensive season overall. The 28-year-old first baseman, due for a big salary boost in arbitration, posted a weak slash stats line of .247/.299/.514 and drew only 36 bases on balls while striking out 119 times. His on-base skills, or lack thereof, have been a serious weakness his entire career (.318 OBP), and the last thing that the Royals need is another consistent outmaking machine added to the lineup.

Did Dayton Moore not learn from his mistakes during the Jose Guillen fiasco? Moore stressed the importance of on-base percentage in several interviews earlier this fall, perhaps having finally realized the correlation between OBP and how many runs a team will score over a full season.

The Royals are coming off a season in which they ranked 26th in the majors with a .320 team OBP, on the way to finishing 25th in the majors with only 691 runs scored.

That is no coincidence, kids.

Moore, tired of losing and watching such an anemic offense struggle to plate runs on a consistent basis, seemed ready to address this.

Guess again.

Adding Jacobs will only makes matters worse, preventing them from putting a capable enough offense on the field to realistically compete for anything meaningful. Sure, he is only 28 years old, hits for some power and could easily connect for 30 homers and knock in 100 in 2009, at a relatively low cost.

The problem is, for a first baseman, Jacobs is not a league average offensive player. With a career OPS+ of 110—league average is 100—his offensive output leaves a lot to be desired. His OPS suffers mostly because of his inability to get on base via the walk, and is slugging percentage heavy. Like several other left-handed hitters, he struggles mightily against lefties as well, making him an ideal platoon player. In 119 at-bats against southpaws in 2008, he posted a poor line of .218/.248/.429, with only seven homers and a .677 OPS.

Jacobs is also a butcher at first base, ranking as one of the worst defensive players at the position in the majors.

No, the Royals are not giving up a whole lot in Nunez, who posted a 2.98 ERA in 48.1 innings pitched. Still, he is a cost-effective, team-controlled asset who perhaps could have brought in more in return. A power arm who at 25 appears to be entering his prime, he should fit in nicely in the backend of the Marlins' bullpen.

Jacobs' salary is expected to jump to a little under $4-million at arbitration. Therefore, it was wise for Florida, which had the smallest payroll in baseball, to deal him now. He was expendable in the Marlins' eyes, quite frankly. The club still has a great deal of power in their infield, with Jorge Cantu (29 home runs, .808 OPS), Hanley Ramirez (33 home runs, .940 OPS) and Dan Uggla (32 home runs, .874 OPS). Cantu, who spent most of his time at third base, can shift over to first.

Top power-hitting prospect Gaby Sanchez, 6-foot-2, 225 pounds, is close to reaching the show as well. Sanchez, 25, had a big year in the Southern League, posting a .917 OPS for the Carolina Mudcats. A local product who played his collegiate ball at the University of Miami, he finished with a line of .314/.404/.513, with 17 homers and 92 RBIs. He made a brief debut in the majors during September, but appears ready to take on a full-time role in the near future.

From the Royals' side, this deal is puzzling. Jacobs is simply a below-average offensive first baseman, and is the last player the Royals needed to add to the roster at this point. In addition to his poor on-base skills, Kansas City already has a logjam at the position, with Billy Butler, Ross Gload, Ryan Shealy and others expected to compete for a job in spring training.

Moore has been infatuated with his new player for a long time, and wanted to pull the trigger on this deal at the July 31 trade deadline, which may have clouded his judgment here. Perhaps he feels that Jacobs will suddenly improve upon his inability to get on base.

At least Jacobs seems to think so, telling MLB.com, "I still truly believe that I'm not a .240 hitter in the big leagues. I think the power numbers are going to stay there. I think the RBI numbers will stay there, if not be higher," he said. "The biggest thing I need to work on this [upcoming] year is being more of a complete hitter, being able to go the other way more, being able to not stay in a slump quite as long. If I get 10 more hits this year, I'm hitting .270 and my on-base percentage is .320."

Well, his track record tells us otherwise.

So, with Guillen and Jacobs getting so many at-bats in the middle of the Royals’ lineup, things could get ugly next year in Missouri.

By making continuous similar decisions like this, the Royals seem to be headed nowhere under Moore. Many people point to the Tampa Bay Rays' worst-to-first turnaround as proof that any team can turn it around and compete for the playoffs in less than a year.

Well, every team cannot do so.

The reason? Not every team has a brilliant GM like Andrew Friedman, who is tremendous at buying low and selling high, and such an excellent farm system and player development department. Clearly, this applies to the Royals, who still overpay for counting stats that do not have a direct effect on scoring runs and thus winning.

Check RaysDigest.com for analysis on every transaction during the Hot Stove season. To reach Tyler Hissey, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com.

Jose Guillen (AP)

Bradford Doolittle of the Kansas City Star had an interesting article on Jose Guillen this morning.

Guillen has received a lot of attention for his off-the-field actions and Jose-Being-Jose antics, but he really is not that good of a baseball player anymore, either. Doolittle makes some excellent points to bring this to light.

Listen, this is where I really get crusty on the Guillen story: In all these comments, it’s sort of taken for granted that Guillen has been fine and productive on the field.

I’m sorry, but he hasn’t. Guillen has been a disappointment. I didn’t expect much. I know the usual career path for 32-year-old outfielders of Guillen’s skill set, and I didn’t figure he’d be worth nearly the amount the Royals are paying him. Still, I expected a little more than what he’s offered.

The fatal flaw in his performance is, quite obviously, his on-base percentage (.291). Depending on which day you look, Guillen is one of the five-worst on-base players in the AL this season. This isn’t just a poor showing in just another statistical category. This is a terrible performance in the most important statistical category.

Everyone gets excited about Guillen’s 71 RBIs, but consider this: Only Alex Gordon has made more outs for the Royals this season, and he has more than 40 more plate appearances. If you’re not getting on base, you’re making an out, and each out brings your team closer to a loss.

Listen, while it is true that Guillen is leading the Royals with 16 home runs and 73 RBIs, he has not been a productive major league hitter at his position. As he discusses in the article, RBIs are more of a team-driven statistic, a completely misleading figure. His line of .264/.295/.462 does a better job of telling the whole story.

Doolittle is absolutely right. Although many of those who were inclined to comment under the article still are fooled by the overrated value of RBIs, the 32-year-old outfielder is not getting the job done at the plate. At all.

Of 64 outfielders who currently qualify for the batting title, Guillen ranks 45th in the majors with a .757 OPS. That is not exactly the production that a team expects when they decide to throw $12 million at a player.

Distractions aside, going on objective facts, the contract given to Jose Guillen already looks like a major mistake for the Royals.

 

The ballots are in. Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Corey Hart and Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Evan Longoria are headed to the 2008 All-Star Game at Yankee Stadium. Hart, a budding superstar, and Longoria, the leading candidate for the American League Rookie of the Year, benefited from strong election campaigns all across the Internet, edging out the competition to earn their first All-Star invitations.

With a record 47.8 million votes cast, baseball fans clearly enjoy this new voting feature. However, as is the case with the selection process for starters and reserves—where the coaches, players and fans all struggle to make decisions in an imperfect process—the fans do not always make the right decisions on the final ballot. If you disagree, look at the case of Jason Varitek, who will make an All-Star appearance despite his slash stats line of .220/.300/.360 and OPS+ of 73. Varitek, in fact, is struggling to make contact right now, and certainly did not deserve his selection.

Did the fans get it right in choosing Hart and Longoria, though?

Well, since I cannot get enough of writing these All-Star articles, let us have a look.

In the American League, Longoria edged out—in order of votes—Jermaine Dye, Jason Giambi, Brian Roberts and Jose Guillen.

Longoria is a deserving candidate, taking into consideration his role in the Rays’ recent surge to the top of the American League East standings. A smooth-fielding defender at third base, he has delivered enough walk-off hits to make David Ortiz jealous, emerging as the top rookie position player in the league. He is batting .281/.354/.525 with 16 home runs and 53 RBIs, and sits atop the leader board in nearly offensive statistical category among AL third baseman.

With the mainstream media’s recent infatuation with the Rays and a strong campaign sponsored by the organization, this decision was almost inevitable, forcing the former first-round pick to cancel a trip to Las Vegas with his buddies. It looks as if this will be the first of many All-Star trips for Longoria, who is leading Tampa Bay in homers and RBIs as well. For all that he has done for his team, in addition to his contributions in all facets of the game, it is hard to disagree with the fans’ final vote selection here.

Dye has enjoyed a fine season to this point in his own right, slugging .550 with 20 home runs in 86 games. The Chicago White Sox outfielder, who has picked up the slack for several of his fellow veteran teammates, ranks ninth in the league in OPS (.902), fourth among outfielders, and is one of only four players on the circuit with 20-plus homers. He has been a key cog in the White Sox’s lineup, producing big hits while Paul Konerko (.679 OPS, eight home runs) and Jim Thome (.846 OPS) have struggled to get things going at the plate.

The performance of Dye and Carlos Quentin, who was acquired in a trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks this offseason and is leading the club with 21 jacks and 65 RBIs, is a major factor why Chicago currently resides in first place in a division that was expected to be one of the deepest in baseball. He is on the wrong side of 30 and struggled in the first half of 2007, causing Chicago to put him on the trade block only months after he produced one of the finest campaigns of his entire career last summer. He turned it around in the second half of '07, though, batting .298/.368/.579 for the White Sox, who then decided to sign him to a two-year extension. So far, it looks as Kenny Williams’ decision to keep Dye, who has fared better against right-handed pitchers so far, is justified, as he turned in an All-Star first half. Really, he has performed like an All-Star as well, perhaps even more so than Longoria.

Whether the mustache or the gold thong has anything to do with it, the 37-year-old Giambi is enjoying a nice bounce back season as well. After a foot injury sustained in May of last season sidelined him for several weeks, he did not provide the Yankees much of anything, finishing the year with a line of .236/.356/.433 while earning more than $20-million. Then, after a poor April, it looked as if his days as productive slugger were nearing the end. With the Yankees’ interest in soon-to-be free agent Mark Teixeira, Giambi’s days in New York seemed numbered as well. Since the infamous thong story broke, however, he has helped carry the New York offense, coming up with several crucial hits while Jorge Posada and Alex Rodriguez were on the DL and Robinson Cano was lost at the plate. Giambi, tied with Rodriguez for the team-lead in homers (18), now has the sixth-highest OPS (.925) in the league.

Despite a valiant effort, however, the American Mustache Institute failed in its attempt to create enough buzz to get Giambi elected onto the team.

Then there is Roberts, who is among league leaders with 102 base hits, 32 doubles and 25 stolen bases. One of the most productive offensive second baseman in the game, he has posted a line of .291/.372/.481, for one of the highest OPS (.853) totals at the keystone. A solid defender up the middle, he is one of the most underrated players in the game, truly. He has, however, been gunned down on the bases nine times in 34 tries. Regardless, the Orioles, enjoying surprising success, are lucky that they kept onto Roberts, who was nearly dealt to the Chicago Cubs this winter. As is the case with Giambi, it is easy to make the case for him as well, because he delivered an All-Star caliber first half.

Guillen finished last in the final ballot voting, perhaps because he plays in Kansas City. Well, two smaller markets—Milwaukee and Tampa Bay—got their players elected, so there goes that argument. Rather, it seems, the fans actually determined (correctly) that Guillen is undeserving of an All-Star bid. Since calling out his teammates earlier this spring at the height of the Royals’ inability to score runs, he has had his moments. He is leading the club with 13 homers and is among AL leaders with 65 RBIs. Overall, though, he has made far too many outs this season. A direct result of his inability to draw bases on balls (he has only 10 walks while striking out 67 times), his .298 OPS is nothing to write home about, bringing his OPS down to .768, hardly an All-Star mark. In fact, he does not place in the top 40 in the league in OPS, even sitting behind an aging teammate, second baseman Mark Grudzienlak, who is batting .314/.367/.419 for the fourth-place Royals.

Kansas City has a -63 run differential, and only three AL teams have scored fewer than its 386 runs scored as a team. While the performance of his former team, the Seattle Mariners, has made the Royals seem like an offensive juggernaut, Bill Bavasi was right to decline Guillen’s option for 2008. He had a nice season in ’07, batting .290/.353/.460 with 23 home runs and 93 RBIs in spacious Safeco Field, but reports of performance-enhancing drug use put that performance into question. While he hits for some power occasionally, he does not get on base enough, has had a questionable past, and his first half was not All-Star worthy.

It looks as if the fans did a nice job in the American League, but it would be hard to argue with any of the first four aforementioned players.

In the National League, Hart received 8-million votes, beating out David Wright, Pat Burrell, Aaron Rowand and Carlos Lee, respectively.

Hart is a nice player who should play a huge role in the postseason push for Milwaukee, which acquired an ace in left-hander CC Sabathia earlier this week. He does not, however, deserve to be an All-Star, at least not for 2008. The Kentucky native has certainly been a key cog in the Milwaukee offense, posting a .510 slugging percentage with 43 extra-base hits, including 15 homers, and 57 RBIs. He has also swiped 15 bases in 18 chances. Still, though, his .842 OPS is good for 28th in the National League, which makes it tough to choose him over Burrell or Wright.

It is definitely a good sign that the Brew Crew faithful helped get their guy elected, and hopefully the excitement level among the Milwaukee fan base will remain this high down the stretch.

Burrell deserved to get picked here, as he has been a force for the Phillies, who are currently in first place in the National League East. Burrell, fourth in the league in OPS (.993), has been one of the premier performers with the bat on the Senior Circuit to this point, slugging .581 with 22 homers and 54 RBIs. The former Miami star has had an up-and-down tenure in Philadelphia, which is why he is such a polarizing player among the Phillies’ fan base. This season, though, he is putting it all together at the right time—he is in a walk year—taking advantage of playing in Citizen’s Bank Park.

The Phillies recently locked up closer Brad Lidge, but it would not be a surprise if Burrell’s days in the city of Brotherly Love come to an end once the season is over. He was perhaps the biggest snub for the Mid-Summer Classic, though, and it is disappointing that he will not be playing in the Bronx on Tuesday night. In fact, if not for the brilliant play of Lance Berkman, Chipper Jones, Albert Pujols and teammate Chase Utley, Burrell might be getting some strong consideration for first-half MVP in his league. At the very least, he deserves to represent the National League, and it was a surprise that he was not selected by the coaches or players.

Burrell has undoubtedly had the most impact on his team of any of the candidates, but ended up finishing third out of the five. National League manager Clint Hurdle still has one decision left, and the Phillies slugger could end up as the replacement for injured outfielder Alfonso Soriano, who will be replaced in the starting lineup by Matt Holliday.

Wright is having a bit of a down year by his standards, but has still played well enough to confirm his place as perhaps the best player the age of 25 or younger in the National League. He is batting .288/.386/.511 with 17 home runs and 70 RBIs. Wright, a defensive stud who deserved to win the MVP award last year but paid the price for his teammates’ September woes in the eyes of the voters, may have just been snubbed again. While Chipper Jones’ monster first half led to an easy decision for the fans, Wright (.897 OPS) has been equally as valuable to the New York Mets as Aramis Ramirez (.900 OPS) has been to Chicago Cubs. If the Mets make a surprise push to supplant the Phillies in the NL East—they will have to, because the Wild Card will probably come out of the Central—he will again merit consideration for MVP.

Rowand, at 30 years old, is close to turning into a fourth outfielder in the near future, making the San Francisco Giants’ decision to offer him such a lucrative deal fairly puzzling.

This season, though, the gritty outfielder has provided one of the only bright spots for the anemic San Francisco offense, batting .296/.362/.453 with 26 doubles and eight home runs. Regardless, he has not performed like an All-Star, and it is unlikely that the veteran outfielder will do so ever again. A two-time Silver Slugger Award winner, Lee could add another silver bat to his trophy case if he continues to perform in the second half. He is batting .293/.345/.548 with 21 homers and 72 RBIs, helping pack punch in the middle of the Astros’ lineup alongside Berkman. All-in-all, Burrell and Longoria seem like the most deserving of the bunch, though the American League provided a far more difficult decision.

This had to help Longoria, who had #### Vitale on his side.

Update: Hurdle selected Wright, not Burrell, to take Soriano’s place on the National League All-Star roster.

On Saturday, I will be appearing on Sports Talk 1220 to discuss the All-Star game and the first-place Tampa Bay Rays at 3:20 P.M.

Click here to listen live.

Tim Lincecum (AP)

Entering his junior season at the University of Washington, Tim Lincecum was regarded as one of the premier starting pitchers in the draft class of 2006. Lincecum then lived up to expectations, leading the nation in strikeouts to earn Pac-10 Pitcher of the Year for the second time of his collegiate career.

Due to his small frame and unorthodox pitching mechanics, however, nine teams passed on the flamethrowing right-hander, considered short for a pitcher at 6-feet—with spikes on.

Thus, several organizations and scouts worried about his durability and questioned his ability to stay healthy due to his funky delivery and 170-pound frame, causing him to fall to the San Francisco Giants at pick number ten.

While Brian Sabean has made some poor decisions—giving up a healthy Francisco Liriano and Joe Nathan for a short-term rental of the most hated catcher in baseball is among them—his scouting department’s decision to take a risk on Lincecum is paying dividends for the Giants. After rising to the majors with ease, he has emerged as one of the premier starting pitchers in the National League, if not the majors.

Lincecum, 24, entered his start on Thursday afternoon against the first-place Chicago Cubs with a 16-6 record in 40 career starts, posting a 3.30 ERA in 256.0 innings pitched. A tremendous athlete with a strong a multi-pitch arsenal—including a two-seam fastball that can touch 100 MPH—he has baffled hitters at times since his call-up to San Francisco, striking out 264. Yet again, he added to that total on Thursday, striking out eight in six innings to earn his 10th victory in the Giants’ 8-3 win over the Cubs. The Sports Illustrated cover boy this week also helped himself out at the plate, collecting an RBI single and scoring a run.

With every outing, it seems, he improves his candidacy for the National League Cy Young award. While we are not even at the All-Star break yet, few pitchers in the game have been as effective as Lincecum, who improved to 10-1, lowered his ERA to 2.49, and increased his NL-strikeout lead to 122 by toying with one of the best lineups in the Senior Circuit. Along with Edinson Volquez of the Cincinnati Reds and Brandon Webb of the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Washington product has made a strong case to earn the start for the National League in the 2008 All-Star game at Yankee Stadium, going 10-1 in his first 18 starts despite the Giants’ inability to score runs behind him.

The Giants remain in contention in the National League West, more of a result of the poor first-half performance of each team in division—projected to be among the most difficult in baseball with the reigning pennant winners, the Colorado Rockies, among three other legitimate pre-season favorites— in the first half than anything else. Lincecum, however, has been invaluable to the Giants, establishing himself as one of the toughest pitchers to score runs against in the majors by posting an opponents’ line of .251/.325/.337.

Matt Cain has is among the best pitchers under the age of 25 as well. Cain, 23, and Lincecum will anchor the Giants’ starting rotation well into the next decade, and it is a shame how difficult it is for the offense to plate runs, because the pair could really string together a lot of wins.

The Giants are five games back in the West, but have a -39 run differential, meaning that they are undoubtedly a pretender. San Francisco, in fact, ranks 26th out of 30 with only 351 runs scored, as no player on the Giants has reached the double-digit mark in home runs—John Bowker ranks first on the team with nine—and Fred Lewis is currently the club leader with an .819 OPS. Clearly, when Lewis, a late bloomer, is the top offensive player in a lineup, it means that his team will struggle to plate runs. As a result of the poor lineup, the post-Barry Bonds era has not gotten off to a great start.

Cain, Lincecum and Jonathan Sanchez, 8-4 with a 3.79 ERA, however, have done their part to help keep the Giants respectable at least.

Throwing so much money at Aaron Rowand—essentially a player who will turn into a fourth outfielder by 2010—was another unwise decision to add to Sabean’s resume. Regardless, though, with Lincecum, who went from the Pac-10 to the majors in less than 12 months, leading the rotation, there is some hope for the future of this franchise. With one of the most unhittable heaters and a swooping 12-to-6 breaking ball, expect him to continue to post Nintendo-like numbers, as he is practically untouchable when he has command over his pitches like he did on Thursday afternoon. It truly is a good thing for Sabean and San Francisco that those Lincecum-for-Alex Rios rumors turned out to be false.

While Luke Hochevar, selected nine spots ahead of Lincecum in ’06, is now pitching in the majors as well, it is easy for the Kansas City Royals to wonder “what if?” The American League has not exactly been kind to Hochevar, whose natural 6’5’’ frame intrigued scouts, to this point of his major league career. While he is still young and has tremendous potential, he is 5-6 with a 86 ERA+—100 is the barometer for league average—for the Royals, who opted for the lanky right-hander over the likes of Clayton Kershaw, Evan Longoria, Andrew Miller and Brandon Morrow.

While the draft is an unpredictable process—a crapshoot perhaps—and it is easy to Monday morning quarterback previous selections, it is safe to say this: the Royals’ young starting rotation would be considerably better with Lincecum alongside the up-and-coming Zack Greinke.

Lincecum's delivery:

Sabean, by the way, is a graduate of Eckerd College.