The youth movement is in full swing for the Cincinnati Reds.
Even with veteran-loving Dusty Baker running the show, Cincinnati has
received some of its strongest performances from youngsters under the
age of 25.
Jay Bruce tore up Triple-A, posting the highest OPS (1.023) in the International League before making his highly anticipated major league debut. Bruce then caught the nation’s eye with his first week in the bigs, providing enough walk-off hits to make David Ortiz jealous in a sensational debut. Bruce mania swiftly followed, as the 20-year-old Texan received a full feature in Sports Illustrated and even took some thunder away from Ken Griffey
Jr., whose pursuit of 600 home runs came to an end back in June. While
he has fallen back down to earth a bit—.264/.319/.410, seven homers
overall—he is currently one of the most exciting young outfielders to
watch in the league, showing why he was the number one prospect in the
minors in several pre-season Top 100 lists. He will undoubtedly serve
as a mainstay in an outfield that is expected to lose Adam Dunn and Griffey Jr. in the near future, most likely in right field.
Edinson Volquez
has been spectacular as well, going 12-4 with a 2.77 ERA with a
134-to-61 K/W ratio in 21 starts to earn an invitation to the All-Star
Game at Yankee Stadium. Volquez, who came to Cincinnati in exchange for
Josh Hamilton this winter, has even drawn comparisons to Pedro Martinez
with his electric performance thus far. He is likely to anchor the
Reds’ starting rotation well into the next decade, easing the pain
among Cincinnati fans with the loss of Hamilton, who is flourishing
with the Texas Rangers.
Johnny Cueto
has had his ups and downs, but has also flashed glimpses of brilliance,
posting a 116-to-47 K/W ratio and a park-inflated 5.02 ERA. Cueto, 22,
is also a major reason why the future looks bright for the franchise,
though he has been lost in translation pitching alongside his All-Star
teammate.
Then there is rookie Joey Votto, the Reds’ premier position player prospect outside of Bruce entering the season. Votto quickly supplanted veteran Scott Hatteberg
as the full-time first baseman after a strong start to emerge as one of
the most productive offensive rookies in the majors. The 25-year-old
left-handed hitter is batting .270/.339/.440. While he has not shown
even average on-base skills, drawing only 36 walks in over 350 plate
appearances, he has flashed tremendous power and is among rookie
leaders with 13 home runs.
Cincinnati, 12.5 games back in the NL Central, is clearly out
of it for this year, and should look to make some deals at the deadline
with an eye on adding a supporting cast for the aforementioned core.
With a plethora of soon-to-be free agents on the roster expected to
come off the books come September, general manager Walt Jocketty truly
has a nice opportunity to turn his team into a force on the Senior Circuit for years to come as the Griffey hometown reunion comes to its ultimate end.
However, the Reds have drawn scant interest from other clubs about Bronson Arroyo—who
has $25 million remaining on his contact and was reportedly taken off
the market—and Adam Dunn. Dunn, who has the ninth-highest OPS total in
the league and is tied for the majors’ lead with 30 home runs, would
certainly upgrade the offensive attack for a contending club with his
high-level offensive production. He is a polarizing slugger, however,
who has scared away several potential suitors with his poor defense and
high strikeout totals. His days are likely coming to an end in Cincy,
regardless, but he is serious undervalued within the industry and it
will be tough to replicate his production.
With a number of prospects flourishing in the majors, there are still several high-quality prospects still developing.
Homer Bailey—yeah, the phenom right-hander from Texas
who was lit up this weekend—has still yet to establish himself in the
majors. Considering the hype that has surrounded Bailey since he was
drafted in the first round back in 2004, this is a major
disappointment. He has been ineffective in nearly all of his six major
league starts this time around, going 0-4 with a 6.52 ERA and 11-to-13
K/W ratio in 29.0 innings pitched. The 22-year-old, still yet to
develop a capable second offering, has been hit hard as well, giving up
eight gopher balls and nearly two hits per inning during his
up-and-down stay with the parent club. He was absolutely awful in his
latest outing, on Saturday, allowing 15 hits and four earned runs in a
loss to the Colorado Rockies. He turned in two quality outings—in which he allowed three runs or less in 5.2 innings plus against the San Diego Padres and Milwaukee Brewers— before the weekend debacle at Great American, but is likely to be shipped back down to the minors.
Bailey has hardly been dominant in Triple-A, either, as he is
4-7 with a 4.42 ERA, 82-to-38 K/W ratio and 1.42 WHIP in 16 starts with
the Louisville Bats. While many
have questioned his attitude, his velocity is down and his performance
has left a lot to be desired, he is still young enough, at 22, to turn
things around. Still, his star has dimmed.
There are a few talented bats in the wings as well, several of
whom are still miles away from contributing to the big league club. The
group includes Juan Francisco, Todd Frazier and Drew Stubbs and is ikely to receive a boost with the addition of first-round pick Yonder Alonso, who is a Scott Boras client and has yet to sign.
Francisco has tremendous power potential, currently sitting with 15 home runs for the Sarasota Reds.
He has drawn only 13 walks while striking out 93 times, however, and
needs to improve his approach at the plate. One could even say that he
is Dunn without all of the runs scored and walks. Still, the corner
infielder is only 20 years old playing against older competition, is a
switch hitter and has compiled 46 extra-base hits and a line of
.284/.307/.479 in 405 at-bats. If he can figure things out plate
discipline-wise and bring his on-base skills to an acceptable level,
then he could turn into a prospect to keep a close eye on.
Frazier, the Reds’ supplemental first-round pick back in ’07 out of Rutgers
University, had a fine professional debut season, posting a line of
.319/.405/.538 in 47 at-bats in lower-level ball. The former Little
League World Series hero began this year at Dayton, where he posted a
1.000 OPS and hit seven home runs in 30 games. He then received a
promotion to the Florida State League, remaining at shortstop—he will
most likely be forced to switch positions—while receiving the label as
a “gamer” from many scouts along the way. At a tough hitters’ park down
in Sarasota, he has been solid yet unspectacular, hitting
.292/.367/.468 with nine home runs and 40 RBIs.
Frazier is an excellent infield prospect, though, and will likely end the season at Double-A.
Stubbs recently made the jump to the Southern League, where he
has performed well (.341/.431/.386) in a brief sample size with the Chattanooga Lookouts.
How he performs the remainder of the season in Double-A will be a play
a huge factor in the development of the 2006 First-Round pick, who had
a tremendous collegiate career at the University of Texas.
A solid defensive outfielder with great speed, Stubbs has shown
the ability to get on base since signing. He has not hit for the power
that many expected yet—he hit numerous shots during his days with the
Longhorns—he has been a consistent offensive player who continues to
improve. Before his promotion, he batted .261/.366/.406 with five home
runs, 38 RBIs and 27 stolen bases in 35 tries down in Sarasota.
Alonso and the Reds are expected to reach an agreement on a
signing bonus before the August 15 deadline, which will add a
high-impact player who is ready to make a quick jump to the majors to
the Reds’ minor league system. The University of Miami star, who reportedly had dinner this weekend with stars Ortiz and Alex Rodriguez,
posted a ridiculous 1.311 OPS and finished sixth in the nation with 24
home runs during his final college campaign. He has great on-base
skills and an advanced approach to hitting, which should allow him to
make a quick rise through the organization.
The Reds have plenty of interesting prospects, though there is
a drop off in pitching depth after Bailey, who will lose his prospect
label one of these days. Still, the organization—regardless of what
happens before Thursday or not—has a bright future ahead of itself.
The Cincinnati Reds
are currently 10.5 games back in the National League Central, a
division filled with three legitimate playoff contenders. So, although
Cincinnati finds itself only three games below .500—and with as many
wins as the Arizona Diamondbacks,
who are in first place in the National League West—it is unlikely that
the Reds will be playing meaningful games come September.
The Chicago Cubs have the best record and run differential in the majors, recently added Rich Harden and have a potent offense. The Milwaukee Brewers, who have received four strong outings from recent pickup CC Sabathia, and the St. Louis Cardinals are right there as well.
Which means that the playoff drought in the Ken Griffey Jr. era will only continue.
There has still been plenty of excitement involving the Reds this season.
Some of the highlights:
General manager Wayne Krivsky, who took a chance on Josh Hamilton and then shipped him to the Texas Rangers for Cy Young candidate Edinson Volquez, was fired a month into the season.
Jay Bruce mania took on a whole new level following his brilliant first week in the majors.
Griffey hit his historic 600th home run down in Miami, becoming the sixth player in baseball history to join the prestigious club.
Volquez has been unhittable at times, posting the third-lowest
ERA (2.49) in the majors. The talented young right-hander has even
drawn comparisons from scouts to Pedro Martinez as he continues to miss bats (129 strikeouts) and offer hope for his franchise.
Future Looks Bright
The future, in fact, looks bright in the land of Skyline Chili,
as the Reds have a strong core of young talent to build around under
team control for the next several seasons. The group is highlighted by
Bruce, the top prospect in the minors headed into spring training,
promising rookies Johnny Cueto and Joey Votto, Volquez and perhaps Homer Bailey, if he can improve his command and finally live up to his tremendous potential.
For now, the franchise has some important decisions to make with
the July 31 trade deadline looming. Perhaps the most intriguing
situation involves Adam Dunn, who is among the majors’ leaders with 29 home runs but is one of the most polarizing players in the game.
Dunn, who was criticized by Toronto Blue Jays
general manager J.P. Ricciardi on his radio show in June, continues to
aggravate some baseball traditionalists. Critics or not, he is still
mashing long home runs, striking out a lot and taking his walks to fit
the description of the ultimate Three True Outcome player. The
left-handed hitting slugger, on a tear right now, has reportedly drawn
interest from the New York Yankees,
but new GM Walt Jocketty has not received many phone calls with
interested suitors for the potential soon-to-be free agent, who is
making $13-million in 2008.
Ricciardi cited Dunn’s low batting average, high strikeout
totals, apparent lack of hustle—a misguided statement—and poor defense
as reasons not to pursue him, despite the Blue Jays' inability to
consistently score runs. He is not alone in his assessment, though, as
many within the industry share the same sentiment.
So, is it really a surprise that several of the contending
teams currently desperate for offensive help refuse to contact the Reds
to look into making a potential deal?
Perhaps the most legitimate concern mentioned by Ricciardi, his
poor defense, makes Dunn a perfect candidate to move to the American
League, where he can become a full-time designated hitter. Many also
correctly cite that his numbers are inflated by playing in
hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. Making matters more
complicated, he has a limited no-trade clause, featuring 10 teams.
However, the Yankees, who discussed the possibility of brining Barry Bonds on board in meetings this weekend down in Tampa, may make a legitimate offer, as they are expected to be without Hideki Matsui and Jorge Posada
indefinitely and the financial burden of his contract will not be an
issue for them. New York GM Brian Cashman, however, is weary about
giving up mid-level prospects, which could stall the discussions.
Despite such a low batting average, the 28-year-old left
fielder has a .944 OPS, thanks to his excellent .389 on-base percentage
and high walk totals (he is also surprisingly fast, so leave the
“clogging the bases” nonsense at the door), and will help any offensive
unit. He is also slugging .568 with runners in scoring position,
cashing in on plenty of RBI opportunities. Quite frankly, as much flack
as he gets, he is among the most productive offensive players in
baseball. Not to mention, he has been on a tear of late, hitting 11
homers in his past 21 games.
Dunn, though, is only one of several veterans—including
Griffey—whose days with the Reds are perhaps nearing an end. The Reds,
in fact, have 13 players on their 25-man roster eligible for free
agency at season’s end.
This has made things interesting for Jocketty, the longtime St. Louis
executive who is reportedly still thinking Wild Card—which is not going
to happen—and has not formally announced whether or not he will be a
buyer or a seller at the deadline.
So, it will be interesting to see if Dunn, starter Bronson Arroyo, linked to the Colorado Rockies, or any other Reds will get shipped.
Arroyo has $25-million remaining on his deal and wants to stay,
but his recent performance has attracted a few desperate suitors. He is
perhaps most likely to go.
Griffey is staying put, perhaps Dunn as well, but if there is a
way that Jocketty can improve this club with an eye on 2009, he should
definitely take it.
The franchise should shift its focus towards becoming a
legitimate force in the future, though several of their potential
trading chips are not exactly lighting up the rumor wire. With such an
excellent young core is in place, as well as an unrealistic chance for
Cincinnati—which ranks 17th in runs scored and 21st in ERA in the
majors and has scored nearly 50 fewer runs than it has allowed—to make
a run, they should look to sell.
If the opportunity is there for them to cash a veteran in for a few promising prospects, expect some moves in the upcoming week.
Reds fans should hope someone budges, at least.
This post, originally posted at Scout.com, is a few days old.
Tyler Hissey recently graduated from Eckerd College in St. Petersburg, Florida, with a degree in business administratio n. In addition to this blog, he covers Major League Baseball, focusing on the Tampa Bay Rays, for the up-and-coming sports network Scout.com, and his work there is frequently syndicated on Foxsports.com . To access his work, go to RaysDigest.co m.
In addition to his writing, he is a frequent guest on the Sports Cafe with Sean Duade on Sarasota FM 1220, where he serves as an MLB contributor.
Prior to working at Scout, Hissey covered the Rays and Cincinnati Reds for MVN.com, better known as the Most Valuable Network. Before his brief stint with MVN, he wrote over 30 sports articles as a lead columnist at WeTalkSports. com, a role which he filled during the summer of 2006.
A Dean's List student at Eckerd, he was also nominated for the college's Writing Excellence Award during the 2006-2007 school year.
To reach him, send an email to TylerHissey@g mail.com.