Rosenthal:

“The White Sox are asking teams for a young starting pitcher plus additional players for right fielder Jermaine Dye. The Mets, Rays and Phillies are among the teams balking at such a price.”

Although the Rays have a need for a right-handed bat in a right field/DH-type role, Dye does not seem like a great fit. He had a nice bounce back season for the Chicago White Sox, batting .292/.344/.541/.885 OPS, with 34 home runs to help lead his team to the postseason. However, he is due around a little under $11.5-million in 2009, the last year of his current contract. This means that he is essentially a rent-a-player who is not exactly stellar defensively and would hurt the Rays’ excellent run prevention efforts. Considering the price, his bad knees and age (34), he is not the type of player who Andrew Friedman would seriously consider.

True, Dye is only two year’s removed from an MVP-caliber season in which he posted career highs in OBP (385), OPS (1.006), slugging percentage (.622) and wOBA (.412). He also put to rest any concerns from his dismal ’07 campaign (.338 wOBA), posting a .371 clip.

Regardless, Dye is likely to decline and would not be a good fit in the turf at Tropicana Field. In Bill James’ projections for ’09, he has Dye putting together a line .270/.334/.491, with a .357 wOBA. This, factoring in defense, would not be that much of an upgrade, anyway, considering the financial implications and cost of prospects.

Rosenthal continues:

“One potentially interested executive said his team was concerned that Dye batted only .210 with runners in scoring position and two outs last season — 36 points below the American League average.”

This was interesting to me. Of all the red flags, why focus on this? Dye certainly struggled with RISP and two outs, batting .210/.269/.306. Still, that line was based on 62 at-bats, which is not exactly a hefty sample size. The thought process of that unnamed executive is undoubtedly concerning, and, from where I am standing, makes it unlikely that they work for the Rays.

Rosenthal also touches on some other rumors regarding Tampa Bay, which is looking to upgrade at DH. Given the current state of the economy, he says, the Rays could end up finding a bargain in a short-term deal with one of the bigger free-agent bats available. One of the names listed is Jason Giambi, whose name also surfaced in a recent New York Post article (though it was essentially a rumor created by a single writer). It is unlikely that the Rays will be able to afford Giambi, who quietly put together a nice performance in his final go-around with the New York Yankees. The left-handed hitting slugger posted a .373 OBP, .502 slugging percentage and a 128 OPS+ while hitting 32 home runs. He finished with a .372 wOBA as well, as he continued to do three things consistently: draw a bunch of walks, hit home runs and strikeout.

With that being said, Giambi would provide a tremendous boost to a Tampa Bay lineup that was actually less productive than in 2007—when they finished in last place in the division. His on-base skills would be a welcome addition, and he would not have to play first base as frequently as he did in New York with Gold Glover Carlos Pena returning.

Still, a deal is unlikely. The Rays will wait to see what the market dictates before they make a move, if any. Barring a weak demand for Giambi, his agent will likely generate a multi-year, multi-million dollar deal that would obviously cancel out the Rays as a potential suitor. Plus, he is left-handed.

Cork Gaines recently dismissed this rumor in a recent post.

Gaines:

“Giambi's agent: [covers phone, giggles like a school girl] OK. Let's start at three years, $45 million.

World B. Friedman: [gulps] But...but your guy is old and we only had to pay Cliff Floyd $2.75 million for half of a season's worth of work. Giambi is one-dimensional and baseball gloves probably should get a restraining order against him. Even PECOTA says he was only worth $9-10 million in 2008. How about two years, $12 million?

Giambi's agent: Listen, my guy just posted an OPS+ of 130 which was just behind Vlad the Impaler and Miguel Cabrera and just ahead of Grady Sizemore, Magglio Ordonez and David Ortiz. That OPS+ was better than free agents Adam Dunn, Raul Ibanez and Pat Burrell. He is only 37, and have you seen him recently? I don't want to say my boy is back on the juice, but have you seen his arms recently? He is bigger than when he got busted the first time...Uh, I mean the only time...or whatever it was that he apologized for and never admitted to...Three years, minimum. And he made $23 million in 2007. My client is used to a certain lifestyle.”

Also, Trever Miller reportedly agreed to a preliminary contract with the St. Louis Cardinals last Friday. The deal is still not yet official, however. Miller posted a 107 ERA+ in 43.3 innings and recorded some big outs for the Rays this past season.

For the first time in, well, seemingly forever, the New York Yankees are going to fail to reach the postseason.

Even with a massive payroll and a number of All-Star-caliber players on the roster, New York (81-71) is close to becoming statistically eliminated from the Wild Card race in the American League. In fact, according to PlayoffOddsReport.com, the Yankees only have a 0.1 chance of reaching the postseason at this point.

There are a number of factors at hand here which will force Derek Jeter to watch the playoffs at home for the first time of his career.

For starters, the Yankees play in the best division in baseball, the AL East, which has seen the Tampa Bay Rays emerge as the surprise story of the season. The Boston Red Sox, who have won two of the past four World Series championships, are a well-run organization and are destined to get another shot at rolling the dice come playoff time as well. With such a deep division, one could make the case that New York, and even the Toronto Blue Jays and their excellent pitching staff, would be atop nearly every division in the National League. The AL East is equivalent to the SEC in college football, where several of the premier programs in the nation miss out on a chance to play in a BCS bowl because the teams beat up on each other.

Then there is the stunning drop-off of Robinson Cano, whose .295 on-base percentage and poor defense have factored mightily in the Yankees’ struggles at times.

The New York papers are all also talking about how players like Alex Rodriguez and other big-name superstars could not deliver in big, clutch spots. This argument does not have as much merit as some would like to believe, but Rodriguez and others certainly did not hit all that well with runners in scoring position.

The struggles of young starters Phil Hughes, who returned to the mound on Wednesday night, and Ian Kennedy, injuries, an underachieving offense, and the nightmare that is called the “Melky Cabrera Show” have also received a lot of attention in the media.

If only Brian Cashman had pulled the trigger and parted ways with either Hughes or Kennedy to land Johan Santana in the offseason, right?

Well, who knows?

Still, perhaps the most overlooked reason why first-year manager Joe Girardi and his club will be forced to turn into to watch baseball on TBS this fall is this: the Yankees’ team defense is terrible.

New York, in fact, has only converted 68.5 percent of balls put into play into outs so far this season. Which ranks 26th out of 30 teams in the majors in defensive efficiency, the most effective metric used to evaluate a team defense. Only four teams—Colorado, Cincinnati, Texas and Pittsburgh—have converted fewer plays into outs.

Although many people refuse to believe it, these problems all start with Jeter, who is among the worst defensive players, at any position, in the game today. In nearly every advanced fielding metric, from defensive win shares to fielding runs above replacement, he consistently ranks as among the least effective defenders at the most important infield position. Thus, it is not a coincidence that the Yankees have had such a hard time converting balls hit into play into outs in 2008.

Although Jeter wows us all with his cool jump throws and made a freakishly amazing play to tag Jeremy Giambi in the playoffs several years ago, he is no longer getting it done, and really does not belong at the position anymore. His deficiencies at the position have been well-documented—here, here and here, and Google "Jeter sucks at fielding" for hundreds more—but many people refuse to acknowledge the cold hard truth. He is a surefire Hall of Famer who just broke the all-time record for the most hits in Yankee Stadium, but his defense has been well below-average for some time.

Jeter has outstanding hands and a playable arm, allowing him to make the plays hit right at him as well as other shortstops in the league and keep his fielding percentage up. But he lacks the necessary range to get to balls hit to his left or right frequently enough, allowing numerous base hits to go through. Often times, these hits would be turned into routine outs with more athletic shortstops. This, in turn, affects nearly every pitcher on the Yankees’ staff, as their ERAs skyrocket on balls that should be turned into outs. This is why fielding percentage is essentially a useless statistic, because it does not account for balls that a player cannot get to, hurting players who get to more balls. He simply does not convert as many balls into outs as other shortstops do, quite simply.

Cano, who can look spectacular at times, is an overrated defender at second base as well, making up half of a poor defensive double play combination. Some scouts feel that his defensive lapses are more noticeable now that he is no longer hitting .320.

Jason Giambi and several other Yankees also rank below average at their position in the aforementioned fielding categories, which has played a huge part in the club’s +35 run differential. New York actually ranks 11th in the majors in runs scored, ninth in OPS and 15th in team ERA. But a huge part of the run prevention equation, defense, has been awful, and is the reason why the Yankees have allowed more runs than every team in the East except Baltimore.

The Rays, on the other hand, rank first in defensive efficiency, and it is not a coincidence that they are leading the division. Tampa Bay VP of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman built a defense-first roster with this in mind, acquiring an outstanding defensive shortstop, Jason Bartlett, and making several other improvements to the defense this winter to enable the club to go from worst to first in DE. The Rays also have an improved, talented young pitching staff and one of the most effective relief corps in the league, but their offense has been anything but special. They have, quite simply, risen to the top by relying on two pillars that are unlikely to fade: pitching and defense.

A lot of attention will center on how the Yankees should pursue CC Sabathia and other big-name free agents this offseason—after all, an estimated $90-million-plus is coming off the books and they are moving into the Cash Cow, AKA New Yankee Stadium. But, perhaps Cashman, if he comes back, and the numerous baseball advisors hired by the Steinbrenner family should look for ways to improve the team defense, first and foremost. This is an absolute must, because it is awfully rare for a team to convert so few balls batted into play into outs to reach the postseason. Of the teams that have clinched or are close to clinching a playoff spot, in fact, the Chicago White Sox are the only team that ranks out of the top 12 in DE. So whether it means moving Jeter to another position (where his .781 OPS does not play as well), some changes need to be made in the Bronx.

To reach Tyler Hissey, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com.

The ballots are in. Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Corey Hart and Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Evan Longoria are headed to the 2008 All-Star Game at Yankee Stadium. Hart, a budding superstar, and Longoria, the leading candidate for the American League Rookie of the Year, benefited from strong election campaigns all across the Internet, edging out the competition to earn their first All-Star invitations.

With a record 47.8 million votes cast, baseball fans clearly enjoy this new voting feature. However, as is the case with the selection process for starters and reserves—where the coaches, players and fans all struggle to make decisions in an imperfect process—the fans do not always make the right decisions on the final ballot. If you disagree, look at the case of Jason Varitek, who will make an All-Star appearance despite his slash stats line of .220/.300/.360 and OPS+ of 73. Varitek, in fact, is struggling to make contact right now, and certainly did not deserve his selection.

Did the fans get it right in choosing Hart and Longoria, though?

Well, since I cannot get enough of writing these All-Star articles, let us have a look.

In the American League, Longoria edged out—in order of votes—Jermaine Dye, Jason Giambi, Brian Roberts and Jose Guillen.

Longoria is a deserving candidate, taking into consideration his role in the Rays’ recent surge to the top of the American League East standings. A smooth-fielding defender at third base, he has delivered enough walk-off hits to make David Ortiz jealous, emerging as the top rookie position player in the league. He is batting .281/.354/.525 with 16 home runs and 53 RBIs, and sits atop the leader board in nearly offensive statistical category among AL third baseman.

With the mainstream media’s recent infatuation with the Rays and a strong campaign sponsored by the organization, this decision was almost inevitable, forcing the former first-round pick to cancel a trip to Las Vegas with his buddies. It looks as if this will be the first of many All-Star trips for Longoria, who is leading Tampa Bay in homers and RBIs as well. For all that he has done for his team, in addition to his contributions in all facets of the game, it is hard to disagree with the fans’ final vote selection here.

Dye has enjoyed a fine season to this point in his own right, slugging .550 with 20 home runs in 86 games. The Chicago White Sox outfielder, who has picked up the slack for several of his fellow veteran teammates, ranks ninth in the league in OPS (.902), fourth among outfielders, and is one of only four players on the circuit with 20-plus homers. He has been a key cog in the White Sox’s lineup, producing big hits while Paul Konerko (.679 OPS, eight home runs) and Jim Thome (.846 OPS) have struggled to get things going at the plate.

The performance of Dye and Carlos Quentin, who was acquired in a trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks this offseason and is leading the club with 21 jacks and 65 RBIs, is a major factor why Chicago currently resides in first place in a division that was expected to be one of the deepest in baseball. He is on the wrong side of 30 and struggled in the first half of 2007, causing Chicago to put him on the trade block only months after he produced one of the finest campaigns of his entire career last summer. He turned it around in the second half of '07, though, batting .298/.368/.579 for the White Sox, who then decided to sign him to a two-year extension. So far, it looks as Kenny Williams’ decision to keep Dye, who has fared better against right-handed pitchers so far, is justified, as he turned in an All-Star first half. Really, he has performed like an All-Star as well, perhaps even more so than Longoria.

Whether the mustache or the gold thong has anything to do with it, the 37-year-old Giambi is enjoying a nice bounce back season as well. After a foot injury sustained in May of last season sidelined him for several weeks, he did not provide the Yankees much of anything, finishing the year with a line of .236/.356/.433 while earning more than $20-million. Then, after a poor April, it looked as if his days as productive slugger were nearing the end. With the Yankees’ interest in soon-to-be free agent Mark Teixeira, Giambi’s days in New York seemed numbered as well. Since the infamous thong story broke, however, he has helped carry the New York offense, coming up with several crucial hits while Jorge Posada and Alex Rodriguez were on the DL and Robinson Cano was lost at the plate. Giambi, tied with Rodriguez for the team-lead in homers (18), now has the sixth-highest OPS (.925) in the league.

Despite a valiant effort, however, the American Mustache Institute failed in its attempt to create enough buzz to get Giambi elected onto the team.

Then there is Roberts, who is among league leaders with 102 base hits, 32 doubles and 25 stolen bases. One of the most productive offensive second baseman in the game, he has posted a line of .291/.372/.481, for one of the highest OPS (.853) totals at the keystone. A solid defender up the middle, he is one of the most underrated players in the game, truly. He has, however, been gunned down on the bases nine times in 34 tries. Regardless, the Orioles, enjoying surprising success, are lucky that they kept onto Roberts, who was nearly dealt to the Chicago Cubs this winter. As is the case with Giambi, it is easy to make the case for him as well, because he delivered an All-Star caliber first half.

Guillen finished last in the final ballot voting, perhaps because he plays in Kansas City. Well, two smaller markets—Milwaukee and Tampa Bay—got their players elected, so there goes that argument. Rather, it seems, the fans actually determined (correctly) that Guillen is undeserving of an All-Star bid. Since calling out his teammates earlier this spring at the height of the Royals’ inability to score runs, he has had his moments. He is leading the club with 13 homers and is among AL leaders with 65 RBIs. Overall, though, he has made far too many outs this season. A direct result of his inability to draw bases on balls (he has only 10 walks while striking out 67 times), his .298 OPS is nothing to write home about, bringing his OPS down to .768, hardly an All-Star mark. In fact, he does not place in the top 40 in the league in OPS, even sitting behind an aging teammate, second baseman Mark Grudzienlak, who is batting .314/.367/.419 for the fourth-place Royals.

Kansas City has a -63 run differential, and only three AL teams have scored fewer than its 386 runs scored as a team. While the performance of his former team, the Seattle Mariners, has made the Royals seem like an offensive juggernaut, Bill Bavasi was right to decline Guillen’s option for 2008. He had a nice season in ’07, batting .290/.353/.460 with 23 home runs and 93 RBIs in spacious Safeco Field, but reports of performance-enhancing drug use put that performance into question. While he hits for some power occasionally, he does not get on base enough, has had a questionable past, and his first half was not All-Star worthy.

It looks as if the fans did a nice job in the American League, but it would be hard to argue with any of the first four aforementioned players.

In the National League, Hart received 8-million votes, beating out David Wright, Pat Burrell, Aaron Rowand and Carlos Lee, respectively.

Hart is a nice player who should play a huge role in the postseason push for Milwaukee, which acquired an ace in left-hander CC Sabathia earlier this week. He does not, however, deserve to be an All-Star, at least not for 2008. The Kentucky native has certainly been a key cog in the Milwaukee offense, posting a .510 slugging percentage with 43 extra-base hits, including 15 homers, and 57 RBIs. He has also swiped 15 bases in 18 chances. Still, though, his .842 OPS is good for 28th in the National League, which makes it tough to choose him over Burrell or Wright.

It is definitely a good sign that the Brew Crew faithful helped get their guy elected, and hopefully the excitement level among the Milwaukee fan base will remain this high down the stretch.

Burrell deserved to get picked here, as he has been a force for the Phillies, who are currently in first place in the National League East. Burrell, fourth in the league in OPS (.993), has been one of the premier performers with the bat on the Senior Circuit to this point, slugging .581 with 22 homers and 54 RBIs. The former Miami star has had an up-and-down tenure in Philadelphia, which is why he is such a polarizing player among the Phillies’ fan base. This season, though, he is putting it all together at the right time—he is in a walk year—taking advantage of playing in Citizen’s Bank Park.

The Phillies recently locked up closer Brad Lidge, but it would not be a surprise if Burrell’s days in the city of Brotherly Love come to an end once the season is over. He was perhaps the biggest snub for the Mid-Summer Classic, though, and it is disappointing that he will not be playing in the Bronx on Tuesday night. In fact, if not for the brilliant play of Lance Berkman, Chipper Jones, Albert Pujols and teammate Chase Utley, Burrell might be getting some strong consideration for first-half MVP in his league. At the very least, he deserves to represent the National League, and it was a surprise that he was not selected by the coaches or players.

Burrell has undoubtedly had the most impact on his team of any of the candidates, but ended up finishing third out of the five. National League manager Clint Hurdle still has one decision left, and the Phillies slugger could end up as the replacement for injured outfielder Alfonso Soriano, who will be replaced in the starting lineup by Matt Holliday.

Wright is having a bit of a down year by his standards, but has still played well enough to confirm his place as perhaps the best player the age of 25 or younger in the National League. He is batting .288/.386/.511 with 17 home runs and 70 RBIs. Wright, a defensive stud who deserved to win the MVP award last year but paid the price for his teammates’ September woes in the eyes of the voters, may have just been snubbed again. While Chipper Jones’ monster first half led to an easy decision for the fans, Wright (.897 OPS) has been equally as valuable to the New York Mets as Aramis Ramirez (.900 OPS) has been to Chicago Cubs. If the Mets make a surprise push to supplant the Phillies in the NL East—they will have to, because the Wild Card will probably come out of the Central—he will again merit consideration for MVP.

Rowand, at 30 years old, is close to turning into a fourth outfielder in the near future, making the San Francisco Giants’ decision to offer him such a lucrative deal fairly puzzling.

This season, though, the gritty outfielder has provided one of the only bright spots for the anemic San Francisco offense, batting .296/.362/.453 with 26 doubles and eight home runs. Regardless, he has not performed like an All-Star, and it is unlikely that the veteran outfielder will do so ever again. A two-time Silver Slugger Award winner, Lee could add another silver bat to his trophy case if he continues to perform in the second half. He is batting .293/.345/.548 with 21 homers and 72 RBIs, helping pack punch in the middle of the Astros’ lineup alongside Berkman. All-in-all, Burrell and Longoria seem like the most deserving of the bunch, though the American League provided a far more difficult decision.

This had to help Longoria, who had #### Vitale on his side.

Update: Hurdle selected Wright, not Burrell, to take Soriano’s place on the National League All-Star roster.

On Saturday, I will be appearing on Sports Talk 1220 to discuss the All-Star game and the first-place Tampa Bay Rays at 3:20 P.M.

Click here to listen live.