—According to Buster Olney, the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees are expected to engage in a heated battle for Mark Teixeira’s services. While there is speculation that the Red Sox are only intending to drive the Yankees’ price up by inquiring about the switch-hitting slugger, Olney believes that Theo Epstein and co. have a legitimate interest.
Teixeira has excellent on-base skills and power, which would fit perfectly in the middle of the Boston lineup. The Red Sox, who led the league with a .358 team on-base percentage, could shift incumbent first baseman Kevin Youkilis to third base. Youikilis, who is a realistic M.V.P. candidate, is one of the majors’ best defensive first baseman, but came up in the minors on the left side of the infield and did an admirable job filling in for Mike Lowell at third base down the stretch. There is no telling if Lowell will ever regain his 2007 form again, and he may be a likely trade candidate if Boston does indeed sign Teixeira.
—Jake Peavy is not the only member of the San Diego Padres on the trading block. According to the San Diego Union-Tribune, the organization is exploring trade offers for shortstop Khalil Greene, who hit only .213/.260/.339 and struck out 100 times in 105 games for the Padres this season. Greene, who is due to make $6.5-million next season, will become a free agent after 2009. He might be a good buy-low option for a club in need of a shortstop, anyway, and a change of scenery might be in his best interest.
As Tom Krasovic writes, “Relations between Greene and the Padres probably are not ideal. After Greene fractured his left hand on July 30, when he wacked a storage chest at Petco Park following a foulball of the shin and his 100th strikeout, the Padres stopped paying his salary, according to the players union. A dispute between the Padres and the union ensued, and though the Padres eventually paid Greene his remaining salary, the club filed a grievance in an attempt to recoup up to $1.47 million in salary. Greene left the club some two weeks before the season ended.”
According to Krasovic, the Baltimore Orioles, Cincinnati Reds and Detroit Tigers have all expressed interest.
The Reds’ team defense was atrocious in 2008, ranking 29th in the majors in defensive efficiency—the rate at which batted balls hit into play are converted into outs. Adding a sure-handed defender at such an important defensive position potentially could do wonders. The Reds could also move Brandon Phillips, one of the majors’ best defensive second baseman, to his natural position, shortstop, if they do not make a deal to upgrade at the position.
The Tigers, after the failed Edgar Renteria experiment, are also in need of a starting shortstop.
The Padres, however, do not have an immediate replacement at short, and will likely address the hole on the market if Greene is indeed dealt.
—Will the Reds go from worst-to-first in 2009, following in the Tampa Bay Rays’ footsteps? John Erardi of the Cincinnati Enquireris not so sure.
—In a post the other day, I briefly touched upon the recently released 2008 Fielding Bible Awards. Well, I forgot to mention that the panelists voted Derek Jeter as the worst defensive shortstop in the majors, as mentioned in this New York Postarticle.
A group that tracks every ball hit in the majors says Derek Jeter is the worst fielder in baseball.
Stats guru Bill James, author of the "Baseball Abstract," and a panel of nine other voters, ranked Jeter 22nd among all major-league shortstops, with one calling Jeter "the least effective defensive player in the major leagues, at any position."
Jeter received one 10th-place vote in balloting for the 2008 Fielding Bible Awards, announced yesterday. One panel member comes from Baseball Info Solutions (BIS), a group that ... well, just say they do their research.
"They watched film of every major-league game, and had recorded every ball off the bat by the direction in which it was hit [the vector], the type of hit [groundball, flyball, line-drive, popup, etc.] and by how hard the ball was hit [softly hit, medium, hard hit]," according to James. ... "They had analyzed the outcomes to determine who was best at turning hit balls into outs," James wrote. "One of their conclusions was that Jeter was probably the least effective defensive player in the major leagues, at any position."
—Joe Smith of the St. Petersburg Timesconducted an interesting Q & A with Rays manager Joe Maddon.
Fuentes, perhaps the premier relief pitcher available outside of Francisco Rodriguez of the Los Angeles Angels, is coming off a solid rebound season after regaining the closer role in Colorado. He picked up 30 saves in 34 chances for the Rockies, posting a 2.73 ERA and 82-to-22 K/W ratio and 1.10 WHIP in 62.2 innings pitched. The 33-year-old left-hander limited opponents to a line of .205/.273/.293 and .566 OPS, scattering only 47 hits.
The Angels, New York Mets and St. Louis Cardinals, the report says, have all shown serious interest. The market for Fuentes will undoubtedly be affected by the status of Rodriguez, who set the all-time single-season saves record and is now looking to break the bank for his efforts.
Fuentes’ agent, Rick Thurman, is hoping to generate a four-year deal in the $40-million range. As expensive as that seems for a relief pitcher, the most fungible role on a major league roster, he will likely garner some serious offers. Thurman is also expected to meet with the Cleveland Indians and Detroit Tigers about his client.
There is a considerable drop off in the market for relievers after the aforementioned pair, and several teams are looking to address their bullpen needs. The Mets’ relief pitching struggles down the stretch, for example, shed light on a glaring weakness, since prompting the club to announce its plans to search for any ‘pen help possible this offseason. New York will be without Billy Wagner for all of 2009, and is linked to each pitcher.
Fuentes, though, may be the better, more cost-effective bet.
Rodriguez, 26, picked up 62 saves in 69 chances, breaking Bobby Thigpen’s previous single-season mark of 57. Lost in the media hype, though, he also set the benchmark for save chances, a function of opportunity. Due to the Angels’ weak offense and emphasis on small-ball, the right-hander was given a greater number of opportunities to hold a lead in low-scoring games than any other pitcher in baseball history.
While Rodriguez had a historic season, a lot of his current market value is derived from context. Some reports have stated that his asking price may reach around $75-million, and odds are there is a general manager out there who will be willing to meet his demands. However, saves aside, his 2008 campaign was actually one of the worst single-season performances of his career. His strikeout-per-nine innings ratio, which has steadily decreased every year since 2004, reached its full-season career low, 10.1. In fact, this was the first instance in which the total failed to crack 12 K/9.
Rodriguez also struggled with his control at times, walking 34 in 68.1 innings pitched. His 4.5 walks per nine innings, in fact, tied for the highest total of his career, as he also posted his worst K/W ratio (2.27, 77-to-34) since reaching the majors back in 2002.
Perhaps even more telling is this: among major league relievers who registered more than 40.0 innings pitched, Rodriguez did not finish in the top 15 in ERA (19th) or K/9 (19th), top 40 in opponents’ OPS (42), top 60 in WHIP (69) or top 100 in K/W ratio. The flame throwing right-hander, who posted an opponents’ line of .216/.314/.316, led the league in only two statistics, saves and save opportunities. While he grabbed headlines for breaking the record, it is worth mentioning that he was the only pitcher who was given enough chances to come within even four saves of the previous all-time mark—Jose Valverde finished second in SVO with 52.
Essentially, several other dominant closers—from Brad Lidge to Mariano Rivera—had much stronger overall finishes, but did not receive the press due to the severe gap in saves between the leader and every other reliever.
Rodriguez, it is worth pointing out, blew seven saves to finish behind several of his contemporaries in save conversion rate. If he posted a similar mark with fewer chances to shut the door with a lead in the ninth inning, Lidge, for his perfection, and Rivera, for his continued dominance, would have drawn more national publicity.
Rodriguez’s stuff declined as well, coinciding with his inability to throw strikes as consistently as he did in the past. His average fastball velocity, for a pitch that he threw 50.7 percent of the time, nearly fell two full ticks on the radar gun, from 93.4 MPH in 2007 to 91.9. His slider, one of the most devastating in the majors, was not as tight, either, according to numerous scouts. He still generated excellent movement on his pitches, but was not as difficult to hit against as he has been in recent years.
Rodriguez is still a dominant late-innings weapon, of course, and is obviously much more talented than Fuentes. He is likely to get overpaid, though, based on his misleading record-setting '08 campaign. Also, while he has not had any health problems in the past, there is always a serious risk for injury with hard-throwing relievers. Plus, there are a lot of more cost-effective, efficient ways for a baseball team to spend $15-million annually over five years. No reliever, perhaps outside of Rivera in his prime, is worth that kind of coin.
Which is why Fuentes may be the better investment, when taking into consideration price and length of any potential contract. Although he is older, he has a chance to provide better value in a shorter deal.
Either way, two clubs out there are within weeks from adding a new closer. It should be interesting to see which team ends up with the better investment in the long run.
The Tampa Bay Rays excelled at run prevention in 2008, with a solid pitching staff and excellent team defense. The Rays’ defensive unit, in fact, posted the majors’ highest defensive efficiency rating, converting a higher percentage of batted balls in play into outs than any team in the game.
With that being said, it is no surprise that Tampa Bay had several players recognized in the recently released Fielding Bible Awards.
Carl Crawford was the only Rays player to win an award outright, though, as he was voted the premier defensive left fielder in the league.
Shortstop Jason Bartlett, who helped solidify the Rays’ middle infield after coming over from an offseason deal with the Minnesota Twins, received 13 votes at shortstop. Bartlett was voted as Team M.V.P. by the local chapter of the BBWAA, in large part to due to his outstanding range and defensive excellence.
The roster for the USA Olympic Team was
announced earlier this week. The following minor leaguers will travel
to Beijing to represent their country at the 2008 Olympic Games. The
group is filled with an interesting mix of stud prospects and career
minor leaguers, all of whom have one goal: to take home the gold.
To find out more on a certain prospect, click on the corresponding
scouting reports from Scout.com. Each prospect is listed next to the
organization that they play for.
Anderson, 20, came over to the Oakland Athletics in the deal that sent Dan Haren to the Arizona Diamondbacks
this offseason. The southpaw, one of two Oakland prospects headed to
Beijing, threw a scoreless inning in the Futures Game at Yankee
Stadium. He has been effective since joining the deep Oakland farm
system, going 9-4 with a 4.14 ERA, 80-to-18 K/W ratio and opponents’
batting average of .238 in 13 starts in the California
League before getting promoted to Double-A. He is now pitching for
Midland in the Texas League, where he is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in four
starts.
Anderson, selected by the Diamondbacks in the second round of
the 2006 First-Year Draft, has shown strong command over a fastball
that sits in the low-90s, in addition to a slow curve ball, his
strongest offering, and a changeup. He is the son of Oklahoma State head coach Frank Anderson, who has an excellent track record of developing college pitchers.
Click here
for a full scouting report on Anderson, courtesy of Melissa Lockard,
who ranked him the third-best prospect in the Athletics’ farm system in
her pre-season rankings.
Arrieta, 21, was selected in the fifth round of the 2007 draft
out of Texas Christian University, where he went 23-7 over his final
two seasons and was twice named an All American. As a Scott Boras
client, he scared off several organizations with his high asking price,
dropping him several rounds. He has produced in the minors for
Baltimore, though.
Arrieta, in fact, is enjoying a fine campaign in his first
professional campaign, earning an invitation to the Futures Game at
Yankee Stadium. In 20 starts for the Frederick Keys
in the Carolina League, he is 6-5 with a 2.87 ERA and 120-to-51 K/W
ratio. The right-hander, who has earned Carolina League Pitcher of the
Week twice already this season, is leading the circuit in innings
pitched (113.0) and WHIP (1.16). For his stellar first half, he was
elected to the league All-Star team. He has a fastball in the 88-91
range, topping out at 93, which he can paint the corners with.
Arrieta is no stranger to international competition. While in
college, he posted a 4-0 record and 0.27 ERA for the Gold-Medal winning
national team in the ’06 World Championships in Cuba.
Click here for a Q&A with Arrieta, courtesy of Michael Hollman of InsideTheWarehouse.com.
Barden was one of two players selected from the St. Louis farm system, though top outfield prospect Colby Rasmus will miss the Olympics due to a knee injury. The 27-year-old shortstop has been a key offensive player for the Triple-A Memphis Redbirds, batting .292/.358/.436 with nine home runs and 35 RBIs in 95 games. He was acquired off of waivers from the Arizona Diamondbacks, who selected him out of Oregon State in the 2002 draft, last August.
Barden is clearly too old to be considered a “prospect,” and
actually made the Diamondbacks’ Opening Day roster out of spring
training in 2007. The veteran minor leaguer, who has a career OPS of
.804 in seven professional seasons, also has the versatility to play
three infield positions. He had an excellent May, earning
organizational player of the month after hitting .377 with a .460
on-base percentage in 27 games.
The Los Angeles Angels have struggled to score runs at times.
Angels’ third base prospect Matthew Brown, though, has done nothing but
hit this season, posting a line of .331/.381/.603 with 20 homers, 63
RBIs and a .985 OPS at Triple-A Salt Lake City in the Pacific Coast
League. The 25-year-old infielder, who has played nearly every position
on the field, is ranked by Scout.com as the seventh-best third base
prospect in the minors.
Cahill is a polarizing prospect. He has posted strong numbers
since the Athletics selected him out of a California high school in the
2006 draft, but does not have an overpowering fastball. In fact, the
young right-hander, who gave up an academic scholarship to Dartmouth to
sign with Oakland, relies more on his pitching intelligence and
excellent command.
Cahill was a force in his first full campaign in ’06, going
11-4 with a 2.73 ERA and 117-to-40 K/W ratio in 105.1 innings pitched
in the Midwest League. He picked up where he left off this spring after
beginning the season in the California League, where he went 5-4 with a
2.78 ERA, 103-to-31 K/W ratio and .174 opponents’ batting average in
87.1 innings pitched. Cahill, selected a CAL Mid-Season All-Star, was
then promoted to the Texas League, where he has flourished alongside
Anderson in the Midland starting rotation. The 20-year-old has
continued to impress, posting a 5-1 record and 2.25 ERA in his first
six starts.
Overall, Cahill, who also was added to the US roster for the
Futures game, is 10-5 with a 2.64 ERA and .178 opponents’ batting
average in 119.1 innings pitched.
Click here for a scouting report on Cahill, courtesy of Melissa Lockard.
Cummings, a career minor leaguer, has one goal left in his
professional career—to reach the majors. Cummings, who began the 2008
season in Taiwan, is perhaps inching closer to that dream with every
start. After signing with Durham as a minor league free agent in May,
he has been one of the most effective starting pitchers in the
International League over the past two months, going 7-3 with a 2.95
ERA and 63-to-20 K/W ratio in 76.1 innings pitched.
Cummings has come a long way since the St. Louis Cardinals selected him out of West Virginia
University in the 1999 draft, but if he can continues to pitch
effectively, his dream of the reaching the majors may just come true
after all; if not with Tampa Bay, an organization stacked with pitching
prospects, then perhaps another franchise in the future.
After a solid but unspectacular collegiate career at the
University of Arizona, Donald has shown some surprising power since the
Phillies selected him in the third round of the 2006 draft. He has
built off a nice performance in the Florida State
League—.300/.386/.491—at the end of last season, proving that he is a
legitimate prospect by performing in Double-A. He has perhaps exceeded
expectations with Reading in ‘08, posting an .884 OPS with 14 homers
and 53 RBIs through his first 84 games in the Eastern League.
It remains to be seen if Donald—who has a rocket arm—is
athletic enough to remain at shortstop at the highest level, because
his range is below-average. Nonetheless, he is an intriguing prospect
who has made marked improvements to his game and may turn into more
than just a utility player in the majors if he can continue to produce.
Click here for a scouting report on Donald, courtesy of Chuck Hixson, who named him the 11th-best prospect in the Phillies’ farm system.
Duensing is command specialist who does not blow scouts away
with his stuff. He has effectively gotten hitters out, though, since
the Twins selected him out of the University of Nebraska—where
he missed two seasons after undergoing Tommy John surgery—in 2005.
Although he has been consistent at nearly every stop along the way, he
had his finest campaign in '07, going 15-6 with a 3.07 ERA and
124-to-37 K/W ratio combined between Double-A New Britain and Triple-A
Rochester.
Duensing is 5-10 in 22 International League starts in ’08, as
opposing hitters are batting .270 against him. The record is still a
bit misleading, however. The crafty southpaw has registered a 4.18
ERA—while not spectacular, it would perhaps be good enough to put him
among league leaders in wins in the IL if he was afforded Livan Hernandez’s run support—and has posted a high BABIP and a decent K/W ratio.
Duensing has battled through several up and downs already, at 25
years old. So, although he does not have a high ceiling and profiles
more of a back-end starter in the majors, it would not be a surprise to
see him make his debut in the near future.
Brad Weiss ranked him as the 33rd-best prospect in the Twins’ organization in his pre-season top prospect list this November. Here is an old scouting report on him, courtesy of Weiss.
Fowler broke his wrist last year, ending his campaign 65 games
into his season in the California League. The speedy outfielder, who
has plenty of tools but needs needs to cut down on his strikeouts, has
made a full recovery and is enjoying a fine campaign in the Texas
League. He is batting .331/.427/.505, for a .933 OPS for the Rockies’
Double-A affiliate, the Tulsa Drillers.
The 22-year-old Atlanta native has even flashed some surprising
power—he had combined to hit only 14 homers from ’05 through ’07—by
hitting nine balls into the seats. He currently ranks second on the
circuit in walks, third in on-base percentage, fifth in batting
average, sixth in OPS and ninth in stolen bases.
Fowler, who was elected as Mid-Season All-Star by Baseball America,
is a potential star who will benefit from playing in Coors Field when
he reaches the show. Like many of his teammates on the US roster, he
played in the Futures Game at Yankee Stadium.
Gall is 30 years old, so the prospect label clearly does not apply to him. In fact, he was a College World Series hero at Stanford
before the turn of the century. A Triple-A mainstay, he was elected to
the Pacific Coast League All-Star team following an excellent first
half at Albuquerque. He is currently batting .313/.370/.496 with 12
home runs. The journeyman has been clutch as well, posting a .384
batting average and .987 OPS in 112 at-bats with runners in scoring
position. With his prolific production and the opportunity to hit with
runners on, it is no surprise that he is among circuit leaders with 74
RBIs.
While Gall is a nice organizational bat, he is most likely not
going to have an impact on the Marlins’ march towards the postseason.
Hessman is a big, burly third baseman who is having a monster season for the Toledo Mud Hens.
The 30-year-old infielder, in fact, is leading the International League
with 30 homers, sitting fourth in the circuit with a .958 OPS as well.
He is batting .264/.394/.567, was elected to the league All-Star team
and is coming off an ’07 campaign in which he won the league’s Most
Valuable Player. Regardless, it is unlikely that he will stick in the
majors for good—he has eight career homers in the bigs in a brief cup of coffee with the Atlanta Braves and Tigers— in the future, though he will get a shot if he continues to mash.
Mark Anderson of TigsTown.com decided to give Hessman another look in this article.
Drafted out of a Nevada high school in the 2002 First-Year
draft, Jepsen was one of the most effective closers in the Texas League
before earning a recent promotion to Triple-A. The 24-year-old
right-hander racked up 11 saves, striking out 35 while posting a 1.42
ERA in 25 appearances. For his performance, he was named to the
league’s All-Star team.
With Salt Lake City, Jepsen has limited hitters to a .211
batting average, posting a 2.79 ERA in 12 appearances. However, he did
not even crack the top 20 in nearly every Angels’ pre-season prospect
list.
Brandon Knight: RHP, New York Mets—
Knight is another journeyman, hanging onto the dream at
32 years old. He nearly retired at the end of 2006, has spent three
seasons in Japan and was drafted (’95) long before steroids were on the
radar as a major issue in baseball. Through it all, though, he has
remained effective at the minor league level, currently sitting with a
5-1 record and 1.60 ERA in 39.1 innings since he signed with Triple-A
New Orleans on May 21. Still, his claim to fame is perhaps being
included in a trade for former major leaguer Chad Curtis, making it
unlikely that he will ever latch onto to a consistent role in the
majors. However, a Gold Medal in the Olympics will make all of the
struggles worth it, he says.
Koplove is a reliever for the Dodgers’ Triple-A affiliate, the
Las Vegas 51s. The 31-year-old has posted a 3.26 ERA and 40-to-16 K/W
ratio in 37 appearances so far, using his unique arm angle to fool keep
hitters off balance. He had a few effective stints in a six-year tenure
with the Arizona Diamondbacks from 2001-’06, going 6-1 with a 3.36 ERA
in 55 games as one of the strongest setup-men in the game back in his
career-best campaign back in ’02. He spent most of last year at
Triple-A Buffalo in the Cleveland organization, before signing with Los
Angeles in December.
Matt Laporta: INF, Cleveland Indians—
LaPorta will forever be linked to CC Sabathia. The former University of Florida star was the key prospect involved in the deal that sent Sabathia to the Milwaukee Brewers
for three months, the blockbuster deal of the ’08 trade deadline
season. LaPorta has the offensive skill set, though, to reach a point
where that tidbit becomes just a site note on his player profile page
on the Indians’ website.
The seventh overall pick of the 2007 draft after a standout
career for the Gators, some scouts compare him to a right-hander
version of Travis Hafner.
At the time of the deal, he was among Double-A leaders with a .978 OPS,
batting .288/.402/.576 with 20 home runs and 66 RBIs in the Southern
League. Moving to Cleveland, he may have the opportunity to switch back
to the infield, where is expected to play with Team USA. He has the
skills to turn into a plus defensive first baseman. The 24-year-old
also has strong enough arm strength—he was once clocked at 88 MPH in
the Cape Cod League All-Star game a few summers ago—to remain in the
outfield, but will hit enough to remain at first base.
In his first 10 games with the Indians’ Double-A affiliate in
Akron, he is batting .237/.250/.342/ in a small sample size. Some
scouts project him to hit for 30-plus homers in the majors. Although
the Brewers were criticized for selecting him, as a college senior, so
early back in the ’07 draft, he has truly emerged into a legitimate
hitting prospect. Look for him to make his debut in Cleveland when
rosters expand in September.
Click here for a scouting report on LaPorta and the rest of the prospects included in the Sabathia deal, courtesy of Chuck Murr.
Lou Marson: C, Philadelphia Phillies—
Marson, one of two catchers on the USA roster, is one of the
premier young backstops in the minors. His name has surfaced in trade
rumors, but do not expect Philadelphia to move him.
Marson, 22, has been a key cog in the Reading Phillies’
lineup, batting .322/.438./.431 with five home runs and 46 RBIs in 89
games. He is a solid defensive catcher with an above-average arm as
well, making it likely that he will turn into a capable major league
catcher by century’s end.
Click here for a scouting report on Marson, courtesy of Chuck Hixson.
Neal is the closer for the Toledo MudHens, for whom he has
picked up 24 saves for while posting a 1.31 ERA in 34.1 innings pitched
this season. The 30-year-old journeyman has posted a 5.08 ERA in 113
career appearances in the majors.
Neal and a teammate will be heading to Beijing, writes Paul Wenzer.
Jayson Nix: INF, Colorado Rockies—
Nix batted .125 in a brief stint with the Rockies earlier
this season. The former sandwich pick has spent the majority of the
year at Colorado Springs, though, where he has posted a line of
.300/.371/.583 with 15 homers and 46 RBIs. He was a key producer for
Team USA at the World Baseball Cup in November, helping the US end
their 33-year championship drought at the event. The 24-year-old second
baseman was awarded with the Richard W. “####” Case Award given to the
USA Baseball Athlete of the Year.
Schierholtz is enjoying a nice season in the Pacific Coast
League, where he has posted a line of .309/.355/.552 with 13 home runs
and 62 RBIs. The former second-round pick also is among league leaders
with a .908 OPS. Schierholtz took the roster spot belonging to Rasmus,
who is expected to be out for at least a month with a knee injury. He
batted .304/.316/.402 in 39 games in two stints in the majors in 2007.
While he has flashed excellent power, he needs to cut down on his
strikeouts and improve his plate discipline.
Click here for a scouting report on the San Francisco prospect.
Jeff Stevens: RHP, Cleveland Indians—
Stevens went 5-1 with 2.51 ERA with one save in 17
appearances with Double-A Akron before earning a promotion Triple-A. In
25.0 innings in the International League, he is 0-2 with a 4.32 ERA,
36-to-13 K/W ratio and .182 opponents’ batting average. The 24-year-old
was originally drafted by the Cincinnati Reds, who sent him to
Cleveland as the player-to-be-named later in the Brandon Phillips
trade. The organization thinks that he can make an impact in the
bullpen at the major league level, making it likely that he will make
his debut in the majors sometime in the near future.
Strasburg was the only amateur player selected to the US team.
He is coming off a dominant season in which he captivated the nation
with a 23-strikeout performance against Utah on April 11. The sophomore
right-hander was dominant on the mound all spring for the Aztecs, going
8-3 with a 1.57 ERA, 133-to-16 K/W ratio and opponents’ batting average
of .181 in 13 starts. The local San Diego product, who turned 20 this
week, is a lock to go in the first round in 2009, thanks to a
devastating four-seam fastball that has hit 100 MPH on the radar gun.
Taylor Teagarden: C, Texas Rangers—
Teagarden is an excellent defensive catcher with plus arm
strength, which will allow him to stick in the majors even if he does
not turn into even a league-average hitter. He was drafted out of the
University of Texas in 2005, falling to the third round. He then missed
a large chunk ’06 season following Tommy John surgery, which hindered
his development offensively. He had solid bounce back year in ’07,
finishing the season with a line of .294/.357.529 in 115 plate
appearances at Double-A. He was tearing up the California League before
his promotion, making the jump after posting a 1.054 OPS with 20 homers
in 81 games.
In 2008, Teagarden has spent most of the year at Triple-A
Oklahoma, where he has struggled at the plate. He is batting only
.235/.349/.404 with six homers. While he needs to cut down on his
strikeouts—241 strikeouts in 214 career minor league games—the local
product is still one of the premier defensive catchers in the minors.
In what he referred to as a “whirlwind of a week,” he went from the
Futures Game at Yankee Stadium to playing in the Metrodome, where he
made his major league debut. In his brief stint with Texas—which also
has rookie catcher Max Ramirez—he
went 1-for-6, breaking up Minnesota starter Scott Baker's bid for a
no-hitter with his first career home run, before getting shipped back
down to Triple-A on Monday. The demotion allowed him to be included on
the USA roster.
Click here for a report on all of the catching prospects in the Texas organization, including Teagarden.
Terry Tiffee: INF, Los Angeles Dodgers—
Tiffee made his major league debut four years ago with
the Minnesota Twins. He has bounced around the minors since then, as he
has does not hit for any power and has struggled to get on base
consistently enough in the past. The 29-year-old has been a force for
Las Vegas this year, though, hitting a league-leading .378 with a .415
OBP and .567 slugging percentage. For his performance, he earned an
invitation to represent the Pacific Coast League at the Triple-A
All-Star Game in Louisville last week. With Blake DeWitt blocking Andy LaRoche until recently—despite DeWitt’s .688 OPS—Tiffee will most likely not make an impact at the majors in the Dodgers’ organization.
Casey Weathers: RHP, Colorado Rockies—
Weathers is perhaps the highest-profile prospect making
the trip to Beijing. The Rockies selected him with the eighth pick of
last June's draft out of Vanderbilt University, which produced two
first-round pitchers, including number one overall pick David Price. As
a senior and a relief prospect, many predicted him to make a fast track
to the majors, but he is still pitching in Double-A Tulsa. In 39
appearances with the Drillers, the 23-year-old converted outfielder is
2-1 with a 2.82 ERA and 45-to-24 K/W ratio.
Weathers consistently sits in the 95-97 range with his
fastball, even reaching triple digits on occasion. If he can continue to
miss bats and improve his command, look for him in the next few years
to turn into a high-impact closer for the Rockies, who are currently
dangling soon-to-be free agent Brian Fuentes on the trade market.
The dog days of summer are fast approaching in the 2008 Major League Baseball season.
With only 60 games left on the docket, around half of the
majors’ 30 teams are in striking distance in their respective division.
Granted, this total includes nearly every club from the National League
West, where the Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers are tied for the division lead despite sub-.500 records.
So, which teams are legitimate contenders? In the first edition
of a two-part series, here are my contender and pretender picks in the
American League.
American League East:
In 2008, the division has three contenders, all of which would be running away with the thing if placed in the NL East.
Boston Red Sox: Contenders—
The Red Sox had a tough weekend, watching their division lead disappear after struggling to do anything offensively against the Los Angeles Angels. To make matters worse, the “Manny Being Manny” antics have taken on a whole new meaning.
Regardless, Boston is still the favorite to take the division crown. Even without the presence of David Ortiz,
the Red Sox have scored runs in bunches, having posted the
third-highest runs total (503) in the majors through July 21. The club
also ranks second in batting average (.280), on-base percentage (.355),
slugging percentage (.448) and OPS (.804), trailing only the Texas Rangers by small margins in nearly every category.
When Ortiz returns and if Jason Varitek, sitting below replacement-level right now, can regain anywhere near his normal level of production, look out.
J.D. Drew,
who was named the Most Valuable Player at the All-Star game in New
York, has been invaluable since Ortiz went on the disabled list. Drew
has posted a slash stats line of .294/.406/.557 with 17 homers and 55
RBIs while sitting among AL leaders with a .963 OPS.
However, there is some concern about Ramirez, who allegedly struck out on purpose in an at-bat against Mariano Rivera
in New York a few weeks back. This was reportedly a reaction to the
six-figure fine that he received for pushing a longtime club employee
after his unusual, last-minute request for tickets. Henry’s patience is
wearing thin with the slugger for accusing the organization of being
dishonest in contract negotiations as well.
All things considered, it might be in the organization’s best
interest to wash its hands of Ramirez after the season, as he enters
the decline stages of his career. With stricter testing policies for
performance-enhancing drugs, players are not aging as well as they did
back at the turn of the century. This makes it unlikely that he will
sustain his consistent .950-OPS level of production as he inches closer
to age 40.
Boston needs Ramirez now, though. So the chance that he becomes
a distraction while losing his focus as a hitter is a real cause for
concern. Off-field-issues aside, he has been productive yet again
through this month, hitting .297/.397/.531 with 19 home runs and 62
RBIs to help pick up the slack while the lineup was without Ortiz.
Boston is also one of the strongest teams in the league when it
comes to run prevention, with a strong starting rotation and the
sixth-highest defensive efficiency rating in the majors. Clearly, then,
it is not a surprise that the club has the largest run differential,
+77, in the American League.
There are some concerns with in the bullpen, as the link to closer Jonathan Papelbon has not had its ups and downs. But with such a deep pitching staff—Daisuke Matsuzaka,
10-1 with a 2.65 ERA and 77-to-16 K/W ratio leads the way, though he
has not been efficient enough with his pitches—and potent offense, the
Red Sox are not only contenders, they are in position to make a deep
run in October.
It is never a wise move to bet against the Yankees.
New York has won seven of its last 10 games to move within five
games of first-place Tampa Bay. Considering where the Yankees were in
May—as they were in ’07 as well—this is no small feat.
Brian Cashman and the club gambled on a pair of youngsters to carry the Yankees’ starting rotation, right-handers Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy. The experiment has not gone according to plan, however.
Hughes, who is still projected to turn into a potential
front-end starter, turned in six relatively ineffective starts before
going on the disabled list with a strained oblique and cracked rib.
Kennedy’s struggles, on the other hand, have prompted questions
about whether or not he was as promising as the organization let on.
Drafted out of the University of Southern California in ’06, he has
posted excellent statistics in his professional career, but his fringe
stuff leaves little room for error when his command is off.
To make matters worse, ace Chien Ming-Wang is out until
September after injuring himself running the bases in Interleague Play.
Wang, the majors’ winnignest pitcher the previous two seasons, has used
his heavy sinker to induce ground ball outs at the top of the New York
staff. The loss of the right-hander, who was 8-2 with a 4.07 ERA before
hitting the DL, created a hole, which prompted New York to offer a
contract to Sidney Ponson.
Luckily, Mike Mussina
has been a pleasant surprise, going 12-6 with a 3.49 ERA in his first
20 starts. Mussina was perhaps snubbed from the All-Star game, but will
he be able to maintain his performance or will he regress back to the
mean?
Joba Chamberlain
has provided a boost as well, moving from the eighth-inning role to
return to his original status as a starter. As excellent of a setup-man
as Chamberlain was, he adds more value in his new role, especially
considering the alternatives. He will help hold down the fort until
Wang returns should Mussina and Ponson falter.
Then there is Mariano Rivera, who is enjoying one of the finest
seasons of his career. Rivera has yet to blow a save in 24 chances,
posting 1.22 ERA, K/9 of 10.76 and 0.68 WHIP. When the Yankees have a
lead entering the ninth inning, the game is essentially over.
New York pitchers, though, have not exactly received a boost
from their defense behind them. In fact, the Yankees rank 24th in the
majors in defensive efficiency, as the arms have made more of an impact
in the run prevention equation in the Bronx.
Offensively, the Yankees—despite a lack of production from Robinson Cano and replacement-level center fielder Melky Cabrera—have plenty of firepower. The early-season struggles were more of a result than injuries to players like Alex Rodriguez than anything else.
When healthy, Rodriguez has been a force, hitting 20 homers with a .975 OPS despite a plethora of off-the-field distractions. Jason Giambi
helped carry the lineup when A-Rod and a few of his teammates were on
the shelf. Giambi, in fact, nearly missed making the All-Star game,
recovering from a poor first month to solidify the middle of the New
York batting order.
Although Cano needs to improve his approach, the sweet-swinging
second baseman always turns it on in the second half. Look for him to
pick it up—his .676 OPS is among the lowest marks at his position in
the league—down the stretch.
Derek Jeter
is a polarizing player, as many analysts think that his defense at
shortstop is a major crutch to his team. Jeter has not been himself at
the plate, either, so far, frequently grounding into rally-killing
double plays. Also, his .282/.347/.392 line is not up to par by Jeter
standards, but it would not be a surprise to see him improve the rest
of the way as well.
It does not help that left fielder Hideki Matsui and Jorge Posada, sent to the disabled list on Monday, are out indefinitely.
If the double-play duo can get it going, coinciding with a return of Johnny Damon
and a potential deal for another impact bat—Richie Sexson, though he
may help against lefties, is not going to cut it—at the deadline, the
Yankees’ postseason run may not be in jeopardy after all, most likely
via the Wild Card.
Tampa Bay Rays: Contenders—
The Tampa Bay Rays’ success has been one of the surprise stories
in Major League Baseball. Tampa Bay, which has never won more than 70
games in a single season, is currently leading the division, at 57-40.
Regardless of their pre-break slide, the Rays are still a legitimate contender, backed by their excellent defense.
While the club has made its fair share of errors in the month of
July, it still ranks second in the majors in defensive efficiency
rating—the rate at which balls put into play are converted into outs.
One of the most underrated aspects of its turnaround, Tampa Bay has
made marked improvements defensively as a team.
Every Tampa Bay pitcher—from ace Kazmir, the winning pitcher in the All-Star game, to reliever J.P. Howell—has reaped the benefits.
The pitching staff has seen a major upgrade as well.
Matt Garza,
Kazmir and Shields are a tough group to face in short series.
Shields, however, is the eldest starting pitcher in the Rays’ rotation,
at 26 years old. This has caused some writers to pull out the
inexperience card, which is definitely a legitimate factor. Perhaps
most concerning, though, the majority of Tampa Bay starters are rapidly
approaching upon career-high totals in innings pitched. Whether or not
the youngsters’ arms can hold up is a huge question mark for Tampa Bay.
If any of young pitchers in the Tampa Bay rotation should
falter or go down with an injury, the club does have internal
reinforcements down on the farm. Jeff Niemann, who made his major league debut in April, is an option. Not to mention, the potential is there for Tampa Bay to call up David Price,
the top pitching prospect in the minors. Price, now in Double-A, has
been dominant in his first professional season, going 8-0 with a 1.92
ERA and 62-to-17 K/W ratio in 11 combined starts between Single-A Vero
Beach and Double-A Montgomery. Selected by Tampa Bay with the number
one overall pick out of Vanderbilt University in the '07 draft, the southpaw will perhaps turn into this year's version of Joba Chamberlain.
The Rays’ relief corps has been more effective as well. This
rings especially true when compared to the '07 group, featuring the
likes of Shawn Camp and Brian Stokes, which posted the highest bullpen ERA in the past half century.
Offensively, though, Tampa Bay finds itself in the middle of the
pack, as it headed into the All-Star break sitting 10th in the majors
in on-base percentage (.336), 13th in OPS (.745) and 15th in runs
scored, batting average (.260) and slugging percentage (.409).
This is why the Rays have staying power down the stretch, as
many players should post improved individual statistics in the second
half. Tampa Bay, though, needs its position player stars, from Carl Crawford to Carlos Pena, to improve the rest of the way.
Tampa Bay is much better at home than on the road, with a 19-25
record away from Tropicana Field. The club will need to prove that it
can win on the road, especially in places like Fenway Park and Yankee
Stadium.
Regardless, the Rays have enough talent already, assuming the
pitching can hold up, to make a run. Boston is still the favorite in
the division, but Tampa Bay has a deep enough roster to stay in the
Wild Card hunt.
Before the season, the Central figured to be among the deepest divisions in the majors. The Detroit Tigers made a major upgrade to their roster, adding an impact hitter, Miguel Cabrera, and Dontrelle Willis in a blockbuster deal with the Florida Marlins. Detroit also added Edgar Renteria, shipping prospect Jair Jurrjens to the Atlanta Braves for the veteran shortstop to become the early-season favorite to win the American League.
Chicago, at 58-40, has a .5 game lead over Minnesota. Unlike the Twins, however, the White Sox have staying power as the clear-cut favorite in the division.
Chicago has posted a +78 run differential. On the other hand,
Minnesota—which will not be able to maintain its current level of
production with runners in scoring position—has a run differential of
+33.
Joe Crede is enjoying a nice comeback, Jermaine Dye (.927 OPS) deserved to be an All-Star, Carlos Quentin (.913 OPS, 71 RBIs) has been an MVP candidate and Jim Thome has rebounded nicely after a rough start. Second baseman Alexei Ramirez has been one of the better rookies in the league as well.
The pitching has been the story in the Chicago, though. While John Danks and Gavin Floyd
may regress in the second half, the pair has been excellent so far,
combining to go 13-4. A top prospect, Danks appears to be emerging into
a legitimate starter in this league, having posted the fifth-lowest ERA
among qualifying pitchers in the AL.
Overall, the White Sox’s pitching staff has combined to post an
opponents’ line of .251/.313/.391, as Mark Buerhle and others are also
consistently getting hitters out.
Even with Jose Contreras—who
hid an injury and is now on the 15-day disabled list—on the shelf, it
truly appears as if each team from Chicago, 12th in the game in
defensive efficiency, will end the season in first place in the Central
division.
Detroit Tigers: Pretenders—
A lot has gone wrong in Detroit. After sending Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller to Florida in the blockbuster this winter, Detroit has not seen any immediate short-term gains.
Cabrera’s days as a third baseman are over, as he was a major
weakness on the left side of the Detroit infield before moving across
the diamond to first base. Offensively, he is struggling through a down
year as well, with a decent but not great line of .281/.348/.485 and
.833 OPS.
Willis, who has struggled mightily with his control and
command, is working out his issues in the minors. His performance has
declined steadily in each of his final seasons down in Miami, and
moving to the American League—even with a better defense behind him—was
not expected to be easy. Still, no one predicted control to be this
major of an issue for Willis, who posted a terrible 5-to-21 K/W ratio
in 11.1 innings pitched before getting demoted.
The other high-profile acquisition, Renteria, has lost a step
at shortstop and is no longer a stolen base threat. Making matters
worse, he has disappointed at the plate, batting .256 with a putrid
.307 on-base percentage and .635 OPS. His power is gone as well,
evident by his .325 slugging percentage and low home run total, five.
Not to mention, veteran Gary Sheffield is hovering around replacement-level production right now, with only six homers in 209 at-bats.
With a healthy Magglio Ordonez,
though, the club still has the firepower and personnel
offensively—especially if the aforementioned hitters pick it up in the
second half—to score runs down the stretch. Plus, at 49-49, they are
only 6.5 games back.
With Jeremy Bonderman out for the year, do they have the pitching to make a run?
Armando Gallaraga has been effective while several of his staff
mates have struggled, going 7-4 with a 3.41 ERA and 68-to-37 K/W ratio
in 100.1 innings pitched over 16 starts. Gallaraga has been a nice
surprise, and is the perhaps the one offseason acquisition—Detroit
received him from Texas in exchange for a minor league outfielder
shortly before pitchers and catchers reported to spring training—that
has exceeded expectations.
Ace Justin Verlander
nearly threw his second career no-hitter in his first outing, then
struggled through the first two months. He has won six games in his
last eight outings, though, and will need to carry over his recent
success for the Tigers to play any meaningful games come September.
Regardless, the rest of the pitching staff appears to be too
thin in Detroit, which also sits in the middle of the pack in defensive
efficiency.
The Tigers’ bullpen has not exactly been stellar, either, as closer Todd Jones has 18 saves but a 4.78 ERA.
The group hopes to receive a boost from Joel Zumaya, who reportedly may move into a starter’s role for the Tigers in the near future.
A postseason invitation seems unlikely, even if the alleged veteran stars actually start living up to their names.
Minnesota Twins: Pretenders—The
Twins’ winning streak before the break pushed the team into contention.
The odds of Minnesota—21-7 in its last 28 games—maintaining its
success, however, are fairly low.
Ron Gardenhire has certainly done a great job of getting his players to play hard.
Even without Pat Neshek, the club still has a decent bullpen, with a lights-out closer in Joe Nathan.
Also, a return to the majors seems inevitable for 2006 sensation
Francisco Liriano, who is 8-2 with a 3.34 ERA in 17 starts at Triple-A
Rochester.
Regardless, the Minnesota rotation, in the middle of the pack
in the majors in starters’ ERA (4.47), is less than stellar. The staff,
consisting of Scott Baker (3.26 ERA, 76-to-15 K/W ratio), Nick Blackburn, Glen Perkins, young Kevin Slowey and innings eater Livan Hernandez (10 wins, 5.29 ERA), does not have the makings of a postseason-caliber starting rotation.
Perkins, a local product of the University of Minnesota, has
added a boost, going 7-2 with a 3.84 ERA. Regression seems likely for
the 25-year-old left-hander, though.
Slowey has been a top prospect in the Twins’ organization ever
since he was selected in the second round of the 2005 First-Year draft
out of Winthrop University. A control specialist who has drawn
comparison to former Minnesota ace Brad Radke, he has excellent command for a 24-year-old. Still, he has only 27 career appearances under his belt.
While Liriano, who missed all of the 2007 season, has a chance
to help the Twins in their push for the playoffs, he is still always an
injury risk as well.
Even with one of the better bullpens in the AL, the club also
ranks 28th in opponents’ batting average (.277) against in the majors
while allowing opposing hitters to post a .758 OPS. To put this into
perspective, outfielder Delmon Young, expected to make a major impact after coming over from Tampa Bay, has a lower mark, with a .745 OPS.
The team defense is shaky as well, with the Twins currently ranking 22nd in defensive efficiency.
Then how are they doing it?
The answer is simple: offense, as Minnesota is fifth in the majors with 484 runs scored.
With Joe Mauer and former MVP Justin Morneau, the team has two of the better young hitters in the division.
Mauer started the All-Star game after a strong first half, and
has a chance to win another batting title; he currently is among league
leaders with a .324 batting average and .419 on-base percentage. While
he has only hit six homers, Mauer is also one of the best defensive
players at a crucial position.
Justin Morneau (Associated Press)
Morneau, the Home Run Derby Champ, has a line of .322/.391/.519, for a .909 OPS.
Carlos Gomez
and Young have been disappointments, though, because of their poor
plate discipline. Gardenhire would be wise to move Gomez, one of the New York Mets’ top prospects when he was shipped to Minnesota in the Johan Santana
deal, out of the leadoff spot. He is an exciting player to watch and
fits the description of a prototypical leadoff hitter, but his .285
on-base percentage is the lowest total in the majors among leadoff men.
Without question, the Twins’ offense has really been
exceptional when it counts, hitting .313/.385/.460, for an .845 OPS,
with runners in scoring position. It is unlikely, obviously, that the
club can sustain its knack for collecting big hits in big spots at this
level.
Therefore, similar to the Florida Marlins, the Twins are a
pretender, because they have relied on unsustainable run production to
this point, and are likely to falter when the tremendous clutch hitting
regresses back to the mean.
American League West:
Los Angeles Angels: Contenders—
The
Angels, 60-38, are coming off a big weekend in which they swept the Red
Sox while their biggest competition in the division, the Oakland Athletics, were swept themselves in New York.
The Angels’ lead in the division is now up to nine games over Oakland, which saw its talented general manager Billy Beane deal starters Joe Blanton and Rich Harden in the past month.
The path to the playoffs, then, seems clear for the Angels, who
are among the majors’ best teams when it comes to run prevention. Los
Angeles has built its roster the right way for playing in Angel
stadium, relying on excellent pitching and defense.
The Angels ranks eighth in defensive efficiency, which goes hand-in-hand with the plus starting pitching.
Southpaw Joe Saunders, 12-5 with a 3.05 ERA, and Ervin Santana, 11-3 with a 3.34 ERA, were huge for the Angels when John Lackey
was on the shelf. Lackey is back now, and has not missed a beat. He is
7-2 with a 2.58 ERA and 72-to-17 K/W ratio in 12 starts since
returning. Jon Garland and Jered Weaver are solid at the back of the rotation as well.
For a team built on pitching and defense—thus likely to be
involved in many low-scoring games—it certainly helps to have a capable
closer like Francisco Rodriguez,
who is on pace to shatter Bobby Thigpen’s single-season record for
saves. While Rodriguez is not missing bats as frequently as he has in
previous seasons, he has been unhittable at times, picking up 40 saves
while posting a 2.25 ERA in 44.0 innings pitched. The 26-year-old
right-hander from Venezuela is undoubtedly one of the strongest
ninth-inning stoppers in the game.
Do the Angels have enough offense to make a realistic run once they reach the postseason?
Sitting 21st in the league with only 425 runs scored, the answer
seems to be, no. The Angels’ inability to score runs is a direct result
of a poor .319 on-base percentage, 25th in the league, and .712 OPS,
23rd in the league. Due to the anemic offense, it is no surprise that
the A’s actually have a higher run differential, despite being so far
back in the division. Perhaps this is why Mike Scioscia was prompted to bunt with one out during a game two weeks ago.
While their pitching gives them a strong chance in a short series, they need to add another bat to take the load off of Vladimir Guerrero,
who is leading his team in nearly every offensive statistical category.
After struggling out of the gate, Guerrero has rebounded to get his
slash stats line up to .287/.347/.496. He also has 17 homers and 53
RBIs, providing production in the middle of a poor lineup.
Gary Matthews
Jr. appears to have turned one good season and spectacular catch in
Texas into a multi-year, multi-million dollar deal. He is providing his
team replacement-level production, for a little under $10-million this
season, giving Barry Zito a run for his money as the most overpaid player in California.
In Anaheim, he is not alone in the inability to help create runs, as only two players—Guerrero and Howie Kendrick—have an OPS above .800.
Regardless, Beane continues to sell high, and has conceded for
2008 so the Angels are the easy pick to win the West. The A’s, though,
appear to be stocking enough talent to dominate the division for years
to come, perhaps ending the Angels’ status as the premier team on the
west coast. Oakland remains a pretender, even in the Wild Card for now,
but Beane is stockpiling enough talent to realistically make dynastic
run as we enter the next decade.
Tyler Hissey recently graduated from Eckerd College in St. Petersburg, Florida, with a degree in business administratio n. In addition to this blog, he covers Major League Baseball, focusing on the Tampa Bay Rays, for the up-and-coming sports network Scout.com, and his work there is frequently syndicated on Foxsports.com . To access his work, go to RaysDigest.co m.
In addition to his writing, he is a frequent guest on the Sports Cafe with Sean Duade on Sarasota FM 1220, where he serves as an MLB contributor.
Prior to working at Scout, Hissey covered the Rays and Cincinnati Reds for MVN.com, better known as the Most Valuable Network. Before his brief stint with MVN, he wrote over 30 sports articles as a lead columnist at WeTalkSports. com, a role which he filled during the summer of 2006.
A Dean's List student at Eckerd, he was also nominated for the college's Writing Excellence Award during the 2006-2007 school year.
To reach him, send an email to TylerHissey@g mail.com.