—According to Buster Olney, the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees are expected to engage in a heated battle for Mark Teixeira’s services. While there is speculation that the Red Sox are only intending to drive the Yankees’ price up by inquiring about the switch-hitting slugger, Olney believes that Theo Epstein and co. have a legitimate interest.

Teixeira has excellent on-base skills and power, which would fit perfectly in the middle of the Boston lineup. The Red Sox, who led the league with a .358 team on-base percentage, could shift incumbent first baseman Kevin Youkilis to third base. Youikilis, who is a realistic M.V.P. candidate, is one of the majors’ best defensive first baseman, but came up in the minors on the left side of the infield and did an admirable job filling in for Mike Lowell at third base down the stretch. There is no telling if Lowell will ever regain his 2007 form again, and he may be a likely trade candidate if Boston does indeed sign Teixeira.

—Jake Peavy is not the only member of the San Diego Padres on the trading block. According to the San Diego Union-Tribune, the organization is exploring trade offers for shortstop Khalil Greene, who hit only .213/.260/.339 and struck out 100 times in 105 games for the Padres this season. Greene, who is due to make $6.5-million next season, will become a free agent after 2009. He might be a good buy-low option for a club in need of a shortstop, anyway, and a change of scenery might be in his best interest.

As Tom Krasovic writes, “Relations between Greene and the Padres probably are not ideal. After Greene fractured his left hand on July 30, when he wacked a storage chest at Petco Park following a foulball of the shin and his 100th strikeout, the Padres stopped paying his salary, according to the players union. A dispute between the Padres and the union ensued, and though the Padres eventually paid Greene his remaining salary, the club filed a grievance in an attempt to recoup up to $1.47 million in salary. Greene left the club some two weeks before the season ended.”

According to Krasovic, the Baltimore Orioles, Cincinnati Reds and Detroit Tigers have all expressed interest.

The Reds’ team defense was atrocious in 2008, ranking 29th in the majors in defensive efficiency—the rate at which batted balls hit into play are converted into outs. Adding a sure-handed defender at such an important defensive position potentially could do wonders. The Reds could also move Brandon Phillips, one of the majors’ best defensive second baseman, to his natural position, shortstop, if they do not make a deal to upgrade at the position.

The Tigers, after the failed Edgar Renteria experiment, are also in need of a starting shortstop.

The Padres, however, do not have an immediate replacement at short, and will likely address the hole on the market if Greene is indeed dealt.  

—Will the Reds go from worst-to-first in 2009, following in the Tampa Bay Rays’ footsteps? John Erardi of the Cincinnati Enquirer is not so sure.

  —In a post the other day, I briefly touched upon the recently released 2008 Fielding Bible Awards. Well, I forgot to mention that the panelists voted Derek Jeter as the worst defensive shortstop in the majors, as mentioned in this New York Post article.

  A group that tracks every ball hit in the majors says Derek Jeter is the worst fielder in baseball.

Stats guru Bill James, author of the "Baseball Abstract," and a panel of nine other voters, ranked Jeter 22nd among all major-league shortstops, with one calling Jeter "the least effective defensive player in the major leagues, at any position."

Jeter received one 10th-place vote in balloting for the 2008 Fielding Bible Awards, announced yesterday. One panel member comes from Baseball Info Solutions (BIS), a group that ... well, just say they do their research.

"They watched film of every major-league game, and had recorded every ball off the bat by the direction in which it was hit [the vector], the type of hit [groundball, flyball, line-drive, popup, etc.] and by how hard the ball was hit [softly hit, medium, hard hit]," according to James. ... "They had analyzed the outcomes to determine who was best at turning hit balls into outs," James wrote. "One of their conclusions was that Jeter was probably the least effective defensive player in the major leagues, at any position."

—Joe Smith of the St. Petersburg Times conducted an interesting Q & A with Rays manager Joe Maddon.

For the first time in, well, seemingly forever, the New York Yankees are going to fail to reach the postseason.

Even with a massive payroll and a number of All-Star-caliber players on the roster, New York (81-71) is close to becoming statistically eliminated from the Wild Card race in the American League. In fact, according to PlayoffOddsReport.com, the Yankees only have a 0.1 chance of reaching the postseason at this point.

There are a number of factors at hand here which will force Derek Jeter to watch the playoffs at home for the first time of his career.

For starters, the Yankees play in the best division in baseball, the AL East, which has seen the Tampa Bay Rays emerge as the surprise story of the season. The Boston Red Sox, who have won two of the past four World Series championships, are a well-run organization and are destined to get another shot at rolling the dice come playoff time as well. With such a deep division, one could make the case that New York, and even the Toronto Blue Jays and their excellent pitching staff, would be atop nearly every division in the National League. The AL East is equivalent to the SEC in college football, where several of the premier programs in the nation miss out on a chance to play in a BCS bowl because the teams beat up on each other.

Then there is the stunning drop-off of Robinson Cano, whose .295 on-base percentage and poor defense have factored mightily in the Yankees’ struggles at times.

The New York papers are all also talking about how players like Alex Rodriguez and other big-name superstars could not deliver in big, clutch spots. This argument does not have as much merit as some would like to believe, but Rodriguez and others certainly did not hit all that well with runners in scoring position.

The struggles of young starters Phil Hughes, who returned to the mound on Wednesday night, and Ian Kennedy, injuries, an underachieving offense, and the nightmare that is called the “Melky Cabrera Show” have also received a lot of attention in the media.

If only Brian Cashman had pulled the trigger and parted ways with either Hughes or Kennedy to land Johan Santana in the offseason, right?

Well, who knows?

Still, perhaps the most overlooked reason why first-year manager Joe Girardi and his club will be forced to turn into to watch baseball on TBS this fall is this: the Yankees’ team defense is terrible.

New York, in fact, has only converted 68.5 percent of balls put into play into outs so far this season. Which ranks 26th out of 30 teams in the majors in defensive efficiency, the most effective metric used to evaluate a team defense. Only four teams—Colorado, Cincinnati, Texas and Pittsburgh—have converted fewer plays into outs.

Although many people refuse to believe it, these problems all start with Jeter, who is among the worst defensive players, at any position, in the game today. In nearly every advanced fielding metric, from defensive win shares to fielding runs above replacement, he consistently ranks as among the least effective defenders at the most important infield position. Thus, it is not a coincidence that the Yankees have had such a hard time converting balls hit into play into outs in 2008.

Although Jeter wows us all with his cool jump throws and made a freakishly amazing play to tag Jeremy Giambi in the playoffs several years ago, he is no longer getting it done, and really does not belong at the position anymore. His deficiencies at the position have been well-documented—here, here and here, and Google "Jeter sucks at fielding" for hundreds more—but many people refuse to acknowledge the cold hard truth. He is a surefire Hall of Famer who just broke the all-time record for the most hits in Yankee Stadium, but his defense has been well below-average for some time.

Jeter has outstanding hands and a playable arm, allowing him to make the plays hit right at him as well as other shortstops in the league and keep his fielding percentage up. But he lacks the necessary range to get to balls hit to his left or right frequently enough, allowing numerous base hits to go through. Often times, these hits would be turned into routine outs with more athletic shortstops. This, in turn, affects nearly every pitcher on the Yankees’ staff, as their ERAs skyrocket on balls that should be turned into outs. This is why fielding percentage is essentially a useless statistic, because it does not account for balls that a player cannot get to, hurting players who get to more balls. He simply does not convert as many balls into outs as other shortstops do, quite simply.

Cano, who can look spectacular at times, is an overrated defender at second base as well, making up half of a poor defensive double play combination. Some scouts feel that his defensive lapses are more noticeable now that he is no longer hitting .320.

Jason Giambi and several other Yankees also rank below average at their position in the aforementioned fielding categories, which has played a huge part in the club’s +35 run differential. New York actually ranks 11th in the majors in runs scored, ninth in OPS and 15th in team ERA. But a huge part of the run prevention equation, defense, has been awful, and is the reason why the Yankees have allowed more runs than every team in the East except Baltimore.

The Rays, on the other hand, rank first in defensive efficiency, and it is not a coincidence that they are leading the division. Tampa Bay VP of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman built a defense-first roster with this in mind, acquiring an outstanding defensive shortstop, Jason Bartlett, and making several other improvements to the defense this winter to enable the club to go from worst to first in DE. The Rays also have an improved, talented young pitching staff and one of the most effective relief corps in the league, but their offense has been anything but special. They have, quite simply, risen to the top by relying on two pillars that are unlikely to fade: pitching and defense.

A lot of attention will center on how the Yankees should pursue CC Sabathia and other big-name free agents this offseason—after all, an estimated $90-million-plus is coming off the books and they are moving into the Cash Cow, AKA New Yankee Stadium. But, perhaps Cashman, if he comes back, and the numerous baseball advisors hired by the Steinbrenner family should look for ways to improve the team defense, first and foremost. This is an absolute must, because it is awfully rare for a team to convert so few balls batted into play into outs to reach the postseason. Of the teams that have clinched or are close to clinching a playoff spot, in fact, the Chicago White Sox are the only team that ranks out of the top 12 in DE. So whether it means moving Jeter to another position (where his .781 OPS does not play as well), some changes need to be made in the Bronx.

To reach Tyler Hissey, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com.

The dog days of summer are fast approaching in the 2008 Major League Baseball season.

With only 60 games left on the docket, around half of the majors’ 30 teams are in striking distance in their respective division. Granted, this total includes nearly every club from the National League West, where the Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers are tied for the division lead despite sub-.500 records.

So, which teams are legitimate contenders? In the first edition of a two-part series, here are my contender and pretender picks in the American League.

American League East:

In 2008, the division has three contenders, all of which would be running away with the thing if placed in the NL East.

Boston Red Sox: Contenders—

The Red Sox had a tough weekend, watching their division lead disappear after struggling to do anything offensively against the Los Angeles Angels. To make matters worse, the “Manny Being Manny” antics have taken on a whole new meaning.

Regardless, Boston is still the favorite to take the division crown. Even without the presence of David Ortiz, the Red Sox have scored runs in bunches, having posted the third-highest runs total (503) in the majors through July 21. The club also ranks second in batting average (.280), on-base percentage (.355), slugging percentage (.448) and OPS (.804), trailing only the Texas Rangers by small margins in nearly every category.

When Ortiz returns and if Jason Varitek, sitting below replacement-level right now, can regain anywhere near his normal level of production, look out.

J.D. Drew, who was named the Most Valuable Player at the All-Star game in New York, has been invaluable since Ortiz went on the disabled list. Drew has posted a slash stats line of .294/.406/.557 with 17 homers and 55 RBIs while sitting among AL leaders with a .963 OPS.

Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis were deserving of their All-Star selections as well.

However, there is some concern about Ramirez, who allegedly struck out on purpose in an at-bat against Mariano Rivera in New York a few weeks back. This was reportedly a reaction to the six-figure fine that he received for pushing a longtime club employee after his unusual, last-minute request for tickets. Henry’s patience is wearing thin with the slugger for accusing the organization of being dishonest in contract negotiations as well.

All things considered, it might be in the organization’s best interest to wash its hands of Ramirez after the season, as he enters the decline stages of his career. With stricter testing policies for performance-enhancing drugs, players are not aging as well as they did back at the turn of the century. This makes it unlikely that he will sustain his consistent .950-OPS level of production as he inches closer to age 40.

Boston needs Ramirez now, though. So the chance that he becomes a distraction while losing his focus as a hitter is a real cause for concern. Off-field-issues aside, he has been productive yet again through this month, hitting .297/.397/.531 with 19 home runs and 62 RBIs to help pick up the slack while the lineup was without Ortiz.

Boston is also one of the strongest teams in the league when it comes to run prevention, with a strong starting rotation and the sixth-highest defensive efficiency rating in the majors. Clearly, then, it is not a surprise that the club has the largest run differential, +77, in the American League.

There are some concerns with in the bullpen, as the link to closer Jonathan Papelbon has not had its ups and downs. But with such a deep pitching staff—Daisuke Matsuzaka, 10-1 with a 2.65 ERA and 77-to-16 K/W ratio leads the way, though he has not been efficient enough with his pitches—and potent offense, the Red Sox are not only contenders, they are in position to make a deep run in October.

New York Yankees: Contenders—

New York has won seven of its last 10 games to move within five games of first-place Tampa Bay. Considering where the Yankees were in May—as they were in ’07 as well—this is no small feat.

Brian Cashman and the club gambled on a pair of youngsters to carry the Yankees’ starting rotation, right-handers Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy. The experiment has not gone according to plan, however.

Hughes, who is still projected to turn into a potential front-end starter, turned in six relatively ineffective starts before going on the disabled list with a strained oblique and cracked rib.

Kennedy’s struggles, on the other hand, have prompted questions about whether or not he was as promising as the organization let on. Drafted out of the University of Southern California in ’06, he has posted excellent statistics in his professional career, but his fringe stuff leaves little room for error when his command is off.

To make matters worse, ace Chien Ming-Wang is out until September after injuring himself running the bases in Interleague Play. Wang, the majors’ winnignest pitcher the previous two seasons, has used his heavy sinker to induce ground ball outs at the top of the New York staff. The loss of the right-hander, who was 8-2 with a 4.07 ERA before hitting the DL, created a hole, which prompted New York to offer a contract to Sidney Ponson.

Luckily, Mike Mussina has been a pleasant surprise, going 12-6 with a 3.49 ERA in his first 20 starts. Mussina was perhaps snubbed from the All-Star game, but will he be able to maintain his performance or will he regress back to the mean?

Joba Chamberlain has provided a boost as well, moving from the eighth-inning role to return to his original status as a starter. As excellent of a setup-man as Chamberlain was, he adds more value in his new role, especially considering the alternatives. He will help hold down the fort until Wang returns should Mussina and Ponson falter.

Then there is Mariano Rivera, who is enjoying one of the finest seasons of his career. Rivera has yet to blow a save in 24 chances, posting 1.22 ERA, K/9 of 10.76 and 0.68 WHIP. When the Yankees have a lead entering the ninth inning, the game is essentially over.

New York pitchers, though, have not exactly received a boost from their defense behind them. In fact, the Yankees rank 24th in the majors in defensive efficiency, as the arms have made more of an impact in the run prevention equation in the Bronx.

Offensively, the Yankees—despite a lack of production from Robinson Cano and replacement-level center fielder Melky Cabrera—have plenty of firepower. The early-season struggles were more of a result than injuries to players like Alex Rodriguez than anything else.

When healthy, Rodriguez has been a force, hitting 20 homers with a .975 OPS despite a plethora of off-the-field distractions. Jason Giambi helped carry the lineup when A-Rod and a few of his teammates were on the shelf. Giambi, in fact, nearly missed making the All-Star game, recovering from a poor first month to solidify the middle of the New York batting order.

Although Cano needs to improve his approach, the sweet-swinging second baseman always turns it on in the second half. Look for him to pick it up—his .676 OPS is among the lowest marks at his position in the league—down the stretch.

Derek Jeter is a polarizing player, as many analysts think that his defense at shortstop is a major crutch to his team. Jeter has not been himself at the plate, either, so far, frequently grounding into rally-killing double plays. Also, his .282/.347/.392 line is not up to par by Jeter standards, but it would not be a surprise to see him improve the rest of the way as well.

It does not help that left fielder Hideki Matsui and Jorge Posada, sent to the disabled list on Monday, are out indefinitely.

If the double-play duo can get it going, coinciding with a return of Johnny Damon and a potential deal for another impact bat—Richie Sexson, though he may help against lefties, is not going to cut it—at the deadline, the Yankees’ postseason run may not be in jeopardy after all, most likely via the Wild Card.

Tampa Bay Rays: Contenders—

The Tampa Bay Rays’ success has been one of the surprise stories in Major League Baseball. Tampa Bay, which has never won more than 70 games in a single season, is currently leading the division, at 57-40.

Regardless of their pre-break slide, the Rays are still a legitimate contender, backed by their excellent defense.

While the club has made its fair share of errors in the month of July, it still ranks second in the majors in defensive efficiency rating—the rate at which balls put into play are converted into outs. One of the most underrated aspects of its turnaround, Tampa Bay has made marked improvements defensively as a team.

Every Tampa Bay pitcher—from ace Kazmir, the winning pitcher in the All-Star game, to reliever J.P. Howell—has reaped the benefits.

The pitching staff has seen a major upgrade as well.

Matt Garza, Kazmir and Shields are a tough group to face in short series. Shields, however, is the eldest starting pitcher in the Rays’ rotation, at 26 years old. This has caused some writers to pull out the inexperience card, which is definitely a legitimate factor. Perhaps most concerning, though, the majority of Tampa Bay starters are rapidly approaching upon career-high totals in innings pitched. Whether or not the youngsters’ arms can hold up is a huge question mark for Tampa Bay.

If any of young pitchers in the Tampa Bay rotation should falter or go down with an injury, the club does have internal reinforcements down on the farm. Jeff Niemann, who made his major league debut in April, is an option. Not to mention, the potential is there for Tampa Bay to call up David Price, the top pitching prospect in the minors. Price, now in Double-A, has been dominant in his first professional season, going 8-0 with a 1.92 ERA and 62-to-17 K/W ratio in 11 combined starts between Single-A Vero Beach and Double-A Montgomery. Selected by Tampa Bay with the number one overall pick out of Vanderbilt University in the '07 draft, the southpaw will perhaps turn into this year's version of Joba Chamberlain.

The Rays’ relief corps has been more effective as well. This rings especially true when compared to the '07 group, featuring the likes of Shawn Camp and Brian Stokes, which posted the highest bullpen ERA in the past half century.

Offensively, though, Tampa Bay finds itself in the middle of the pack, as it headed into the All-Star break sitting 10th in the majors in on-base percentage (.336), 13th in OPS (.745) and 15th in runs scored, batting average (.260) and slugging percentage (.409).

This is why the Rays have staying power down the stretch, as many players should post improved individual statistics in the second half. Tampa Bay, though, needs its position player stars, from Carl Crawford to Carlos Pena, to improve the rest of the way.

Tampa Bay is much better at home than on the road, with a 19-25 record away from Tropicana Field. The club will need to prove that it can win on the road, especially in places like Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium.

Regardless, the Rays have enough talent already, assuming the pitching can hold up, to make a run. Boston is still the favorite in the division, but Tampa Bay has a deep enough roster to stay in the Wild Card hunt.

To read more about the Rays’ chances, click here.

American League Central:

Before the season, the Central figured to be among the deepest divisions in the majors. The Detroit Tigers made a major upgrade to their roster, adding an impact hitter, Miguel Cabrera, and Dontrelle Willis in a blockbuster deal with the Florida Marlins. Detroit also added Edgar Renteria, shipping prospect Jair Jurrjens to the Atlanta Braves for the veteran shortstop to become the early-season favorite to win the American League.

The Tigers’ poor start in April, however, opened up the division for the Chicago White Sox and the surprise Minnesota Twins.

Chicago White Sox: Contenders—

Chicago, at 58-40, has a .5 game lead over Minnesota. Unlike the Twins, however, the White Sox have staying power as the clear-cut favorite in the division.

Chicago has posted a +78 run differential. On the other hand, Minnesota—which will not be able to maintain its current level of production with runners in scoring position—has a run differential of +33.

Joe Crede is enjoying a nice comeback, Jermaine Dye (.927 OPS) deserved to be an All-Star, Carlos Quentin (.913 OPS, 71 RBIs) has been an MVP candidate and Jim Thome has rebounded nicely after a rough start. Second baseman Alexei Ramirez has been one of the better rookies in the league as well.

The pitching has been the story in the Chicago, though. While John Danks and Gavin Floyd may regress in the second half, the pair has been excellent so far, combining to go 13-4. A top prospect, Danks appears to be emerging into a legitimate starter in this league, having posted the fifth-lowest ERA among qualifying pitchers in the AL.

Overall, the White Sox’s pitching staff has combined to post an opponents’ line of .251/.313/.391, as Mark Buerhle and others are also consistently getting hitters out. Even with Jose Contreras—who hid an injury and is now on the 15-day disabled list—on the shelf, it truly appears as if each team from Chicago, 12th in the game in defensive efficiency, will end the season in first place in the Central division.

Detroit Tigers: Pretenders—

A lot has gone wrong in Detroit. After sending Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller to Florida in the blockbuster this winter, Detroit has not seen any immediate short-term gains.

Cabrera’s days as a third baseman are over, as he was a major weakness on the left side of the Detroit infield before moving across the diamond to first base. Offensively, he is struggling through a down year as well, with a decent but not great line of .281/.348/.485 and .833 OPS.

Willis, who has struggled mightily with his control and command, is working out his issues in the minors. His performance has declined steadily in each of his final seasons down in Miami, and moving to the American League—even with a better defense behind him—was not expected to be easy. Still, no one predicted control to be this major of an issue for Willis, who posted a terrible 5-to-21 K/W ratio in 11.1 innings pitched before getting demoted.

The other high-profile acquisition, Renteria, has lost a step at shortstop and is no longer a stolen base threat. Making matters worse, he has disappointed at the plate, batting .256 with a putrid .307 on-base percentage and .635 OPS. His power is gone as well, evident by his .325 slugging percentage and low home run total, five.

Not to mention, veteran Gary Sheffield is hovering around replacement-level production right now, with only six homers in 209 at-bats.

With a healthy Magglio Ordonez, though, the club still has the firepower and personnel offensively—especially if the aforementioned hitters pick it up in the second half—to score runs down the stretch. Plus, at 49-49, they are only 6.5 games back.

With Jeremy Bonderman out for the year, do they have the pitching to make a run?

Armando Gallaraga has been effective while several of his staff mates have struggled, going 7-4 with a 3.41 ERA and 68-to-37 K/W ratio in 100.1 innings pitched over 16 starts. Gallaraga has been a nice surprise, and is the perhaps the one offseason acquisition—Detroit received him from Texas in exchange for a minor league outfielder shortly before pitchers and catchers reported to spring training—that has exceeded expectations.

Ace Justin Verlander nearly threw his second career no-hitter in his first outing, then struggled through the first two months. He has won six games in his last eight outings, though, and will need to carry over his recent success for the Tigers to play any meaningful games come September.

Regardless, the rest of the pitching staff appears to be too thin in Detroit, which also sits in the middle of the pack in defensive efficiency.

Nate Robertson has a 5.69 ERA and 1.54 WHIP.

Kenny Rogers is 43 years old with 4.62 ERA.

The Tigers’ bullpen has not exactly been stellar, either, as closer Todd Jones has 18 saves but a 4.78 ERA.

The group hopes to receive a boost from Joel Zumaya, who reportedly may move into a starter’s role for the Tigers in the near future.

A postseason invitation seems unlikely, even if the alleged veteran stars actually start living up to their names.

Minnesota Twins: Pretenders—The Twins’ winning streak before the break pushed the team into contention. The odds of Minnesota—21-7 in its last 28 games—maintaining its success, however, are fairly low.

Ron Gardenhire has certainly done a great job of getting his players to play hard.

Even without Pat Neshek, the club still has a decent bullpen, with a lights-out closer in Joe Nathan.

Also, a return to the majors seems inevitable for 2006 sensation Francisco Liriano, who is 8-2 with a 3.34 ERA in 17 starts at Triple-A Rochester.

Regardless, the Minnesota rotation, in the middle of the pack in the majors in starters’ ERA (4.47), is less than stellar. The staff, consisting of Scott Baker (3.26 ERA, 76-to-15 K/W ratio), Nick Blackburn, Glen Perkins, young Kevin Slowey and innings eater Livan Hernandez (10 wins, 5.29 ERA), does not have the makings of a postseason-caliber starting rotation.

Perkins, a local product of the University of Minnesota, has added a boost, going 7-2 with a 3.84 ERA. Regression seems likely for the 25-year-old left-hander, though.

Slowey has been a top prospect in the Twins’ organization ever since he was selected in the second round of the 2005 First-Year draft out of Winthrop University. A control specialist who has drawn comparison to former Minnesota ace Brad Radke, he has excellent command for a 24-year-old. Still, he has only 27 career appearances under his belt.

While Liriano, who missed all of the 2007 season, has a chance to help the Twins in their push for the playoffs, he is still always an injury risk as well.

Even with one of the better bullpens in the AL, the club also ranks 28th in opponents’ batting average (.277) against in the majors while allowing opposing hitters to post a .758 OPS. To put this into perspective, outfielder Delmon Young, expected to make a major impact after coming over from Tampa Bay, has a lower mark, with a .745 OPS.

The team defense is shaky as well, with the Twins currently ranking 22nd in defensive efficiency.

Then how are they doing it?

The answer is simple: offense, as Minnesota is fifth in the majors with 484 runs scored.

With Joe Mauer and former MVP Justin Morneau, the team has two of the better young hitters in the division.

Mauer started the All-Star game after a strong first half, and has a chance to win another batting title; he currently is among league leaders with a .324 batting average and .419 on-base percentage. While he has only hit six homers, Mauer is also one of the best defensive players at a crucial position.

Justin Morneau (Associated Press)

Morneau, the Home Run Derby Champ, has a line of .322/.391/.519, for a .909 OPS.

Carlos Gomez and Young have been disappointments, though, because of their poor plate discipline. Gardenhire would be wise to move Gomez, one of the New York Mets’ top prospects when he was shipped to Minnesota in the Johan Santana deal, out of the leadoff spot. He is an exciting player to watch and fits the description of a prototypical leadoff hitter, but his .285 on-base percentage is the lowest total in the majors among leadoff men.

Without question, the Twins’ offense has really been exceptional when it counts, hitting .313/.385/.460, for an .845 OPS, with runners in scoring position. It is unlikely, obviously, that the club can sustain its knack for collecting big hits in big spots at this level.

Therefore, similar to the Florida Marlins, the Twins are a pretender, because they have relied on unsustainable run production to this point, and are likely to falter when the tremendous clutch hitting regresses back to the mean.

American League West:

Los Angeles Angels: Contenders—

The Angels, 60-38, are coming off a big weekend in which they swept the Red Sox while their biggest competition in the division, the Oakland Athletics, were swept themselves in New York.

The Angels’ lead in the division is now up to nine games over Oakland, which saw its talented general manager Billy Beane deal starters Joe Blanton and Rich Harden in the past month.

The path to the playoffs, then, seems clear for the Angels, who are among the majors’ best teams when it comes to run prevention. Los Angeles has built its roster the right way for playing in Angel stadium, relying on excellent pitching and defense.

The Angels ranks eighth in defensive efficiency, which goes hand-in-hand with the plus starting pitching.

Southpaw Joe Saunders, 12-5 with a 3.05 ERA, and Ervin Santana, 11-3 with a 3.34 ERA, were huge for the Angels when John Lackey was on the shelf. Lackey is back now, and has not missed a beat. He is 7-2 with a 2.58 ERA and 72-to-17 K/W ratio in 12 starts since returning. Jon Garland and Jered Weaver are solid at the back of the rotation as well.

For a team built on pitching and defense—thus likely to be involved in many low-scoring games—it certainly helps to have a capable closer like Francisco Rodriguez, who is on pace to shatter Bobby Thigpen’s single-season record for saves. While Rodriguez is not missing bats as frequently as he has in previous seasons, he has been unhittable at times, picking up 40 saves while posting a 2.25 ERA in 44.0 innings pitched. The 26-year-old right-hander from Venezuela is undoubtedly one of the strongest ninth-inning stoppers in the game.

Do the Angels have enough offense to make a realistic run once they reach the postseason?

Sitting 21st in the league with only 425 runs scored, the answer seems to be, no. The Angels’ inability to score runs is a direct result of a poor .319 on-base percentage, 25th in the league, and .712 OPS, 23rd in the league. Due to the anemic offense, it is no surprise that the A’s actually have a higher run differential, despite being so far back in the division. Perhaps this is why Mike Scioscia was prompted to bunt with one out during a game two weeks ago.

While their pitching gives them a strong chance in a short series, they need to add another bat to take the load off of Vladimir Guerrero, who is leading his team in nearly every offensive statistical category. After struggling out of the gate, Guerrero has rebounded to get his slash stats line up to .287/.347/.496. He also has 17 homers and 53 RBIs, providing production in the middle of a poor lineup.

Gary Matthews Jr. appears to have turned one good season and spectacular catch in Texas into a multi-year, multi-million dollar deal. He is providing his team replacement-level production, for a little under $10-million this season, giving Barry Zito a run for his money as the most overpaid player in California.

In Anaheim, he is not alone in the inability to help create runs, as only two players—Guerrero and Howie Kendrick—have an OPS above .800.

Regardless, Beane continues to sell high, and has conceded for 2008 so the Angels are the easy pick to win the West. The A’s, though, appear to be stocking enough talent to dominate the division for years to come, perhaps ending the Angels’ status as the premier team on the west coast. Oakland remains a pretender, even in the Wild Card for now, but Beane is stockpiling enough talent to realistically make dynastic run as we enter the next decade.

To contact Tyler Hissey, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com.

Buster Olney provides a great service to anyone interested in baseball, linking to every team’s local newspaper beat reporter and columnists. Olney is of course one of the best baseball journalists in the business, but I disagreed with his pre-links article today (subscription only).

The central theme of his argument is that the current Yankees lack the mystique they had during the dynasty years at the turn of the century. There is certainly some truth to that, but Buster went on to write, “Alex Rodriguez and Bobby Abreu and Jason Giambi and Robinson Cano don't have that (winning) in their experience, and Joba Chamberlain.” Which is a fair point as well, though I do not think is a major factor why this year's version of the Bronx Bombers, with such a thin starting rotation, currently reside in third place in the American League East.

For starters, the postseason is a crapshoot, the AL in general (especially the East) has improved dramatically this decade, the Boston Red Sox now have the best front office in baseball with Theo Epstein at the helm, and New York had much better starting pitching in the dynasty years. That is the major difference, not because Rodriguez and Abreu and Giambi and Cano do not have “winning experience.” He raves about how former New York third baseman, one of the main figures in the article, had that swagger that several current Yankee players lack. I was at the Brosius home run game at Yankee Stadium back in 2001, which was one of the highlights of my freshman year of high school. But, during that same season, the Yankees infielder hit .287/.343/.446 with 13 home runs, 49 RBIs and a below average OPS+, 105+, for a corner position. Rodriguez already has more homers this season, in half the at-bats, is the best player in baseball, and gets way too much flack for he performs in a small sample size and for the performance of his teammates. In the past, some writers have made the ridiculous argument that the Yankees would be better off with Brosius in his prime rather than A-Rod, undoubtedly the best hitter in the American League.

However, if one wants to look at a major problem going unnoticed in New York this season—not the obvious poor performance of youngsters Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy, Robinson Cano's inability to get on base and Chien-Ming Wang's injury—look out at shortstop, where the beloved Captain continues to kill the Yankees with his terrible range and overall defense. The Yankees ranks 22nd out of 30 teams in defensive efficiency rating—the rate at which balls put into play are converted into outs—and Jeter's lack of range is a major reason why.

"Passed-A-Diving," a nickname given to Jeter because New York announcers always use the phrase since he does not get too enough balls to his left or right, is also struggling at the plate right now. He has posted an un-Jeter like OPS+ of 98, which indicates that he has been a below-league average offensive player, albeit at a defense-first position. Given his poor defense as well, he is clearly not living up to his reputation or $20-million paycheck. He may have four rings, but the players got it right in last week's SI poll, choosing him as the most overrated player in baseball. Honestly, if A-Rod—who was a far better shortstop at the time of the trade, and would have stayed at the position if Jeter did what was best for the team (yet received no criticism for, due to the media's infatuation with him and the myth that he is a Gold Glove fielder)—came up in the Yankees' farm system back in the 90s, he would have all of those rings as well. And if Jeter came up with Seattle, he would be just another shortstop, who most likely would have been moved to third base by now. Do not get me wrong, he has been a tremendous player and was an integral part of those talented Yankees teams at the end of the 90s, but he is now on the downward decline and is nowhere close to being as effective of a player as his partner on the left side of the infield.

Rodriguez was attacked by the New York papers—the Post is more of a tabloid, though—after making a few errors at third base in 2006, and some wondered if he could handle third base anymore after a small sample size of about two weeks. Jeter has been a poor fielder for years now, however, yet no mainstream writer would dare to insult the New York hero.

Prompted by a few questions on the subject, I decided to do my own version of the debates. Solely focusing on the three best teams—record-wise at the midway point—in the American League East, here are my picks for the top players at each position among the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees and Rays. While the Baltimore Orioles are exceeding expectations and the Toronto Blue Jays have an excellent starting rotation, I decided to leave out the teams for this meaningless exercise.

My selections are based mostly off of this season's performance, albeit over a small sample size. More than that, though, these are the players who I would choose solely for the rest of 2008. There are obviously a ton of factors—salary, age, durability, roster needs, years under team control—that would realistically factor into these decisions if an actual general manager were making the picks. While keeping in mind contracts to an extent—and not based solely off track record—here are my picks, though it is late, and this was harder than I thought it would be.

C: Jorge Posada, New York Yankees: While he has spent a large chunk of the first half on the disabled list, Posada has still managed to post an OPS of .826 in 122 at-bats. Plus, he has been one of the premier offensive players at a defense-first position for a long time, and finished last season with a ridiculous .969 OPS, 20 homers and 90 RBIs. I said I would not go on track record, but here I have done it already, on the first pick. When he is healthy, though, Posada is productive. Period. He is making $13,100,000 this season, however, and Dioner Navarro--who has been one of the top three offensive catchers (currently batting .317/.368/.444) this season, is younger and is improving defensively--is making $412,500. Clearly, from a pure value standpoint, Navarro has to be the guy here.

Purely baseball-wise, Posada is the guy, though he is aging and will hurt the Yankees and will not be able to remain at the position during the back-end years of the deal that he signed this offseason.

1B: Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox: This is a tough one here. Was Carlos Pena's season in 2007 a fluke, or are his struggles this season based off of too small a sample size to read too much into it? Pena had the finest season of any first baseman last year, when he set the Tampa Bay single-season record with 46 homers and finished second in the AL in OPS. The ’07 version of Pena was one of the most prolific hitters in baseball, at a discounted price. He is also an underrated with the glove as well.

However, while Pena is healthy again and should rebound to hit for more power in the second half, there are better options here. Jason Giambi and Youkilis, each a legitimate All-Star candidate at the position, are having great seasons while the left-handed Tampa Bay slugger has struggled at times. From a value standpoint, it is hard not to go with Youk, who is only making $3-million this year and always seems to find a way to get on base. He is batting .313/.382/.544 this year with 50 RBIs. While Giambi, who currently ranks fifth in the AL with 17 homers and a .939 OPS, hits for more power, he is making a ridiculous amount of money and it would be unwise for the Yankees to pick up his option for 2009.

2B: Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox: Before the season started, I would have to go with Cano, who many think will win a batting title one day. Well, it will certainly not happen in 2008, as he has a line of .244/.282/.361. Quite frankly, he swings at everything and needs to improve his approach at the plate.

Pedroia is a solid defender, though he is having a down offensive season as well, despite his recent power surge. Iwamura has made a flawless transition to second base, but is not getting on base as frequently as he did last season. He is batting .276/.346/.376, for a .721 OPS, second behind Pedroia among the group. Over the long term, however, it would be hard to with someone other than Cano, who has the most talent and highest upside. Still, he really does need to become more selective.

For the rest of the season, I would pick Pedroia, the AL Rookie of the Year and a World Series hero in 2007. His recent performance—.556/.571/.815 over the past seven games—at the end of June has pushed his batting average back up to .304, and he is among leaders at his position with eight home runs. Plus, the Arizona State product is making under half-a-million dollars, plays steady defense and posted the highest first-half OPS of the trio.

SS: Undecided: This is really a toss-up here. Barlett has been a huge upgrade defensively at shortstop for the Rays, but has the lowest OPS among regular players in the majors. Offensively, he has been arguably the worst hitter in all of baseball throughout the first half. Really, he has been a guaranteed out at the plate, as he is batting a weak .252 (he has only seven extra-base hits) with a sub-.300 on-base percentage.

Jeter is one of the worst—if not the worst—defensive shortstops in baseball, and it is shocking how much he hurts the Yankees with his inability to get to balls to his left or right. In fact, some sabermetricians refer to him as “Past-A-Diving” Jeter, not Derek, because the Yankees announcers are always forced to use that phrase due to his poor range. Plus, he is struggling at the plate as well. He is batting an un-Jeter like .284/.344/.393; that slugging percentage is among the worst for a period of 81 games in his entire career. For $21,600,000 the Yankee captain has not been earning his paycheck with his play on the field. He has been so important to the Yankees for so long, but his days as a productive shortstop—at least fielding-wise—are over.

Then there is Lugo , whose .274/.364/.343 line in the first half has New Englanders begging for the promotion of infield prospect Jed Lowrie.

I must say, wow, this is a tough call. It comes down to Bartlett, the cheapest and best defender of group, or Jeter, the most famous—and overrated, the players got it right in the recent Sports Illustrated poll conducted in spring training—of the trio. Really, it depends on my team's needs. If I have a strong lineup and a pitching staff that induces a lot of ground balls, Bartlett is my guy. But Jeter is a born winner, a future Hall of Famer. If this were a multiple choice test, I would circle in "not enough information."

3B: Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees: Longoria is my mid-season pick for the Rookie of the Year in the American League, but A-Rod is the best hitter on the planet. Period. Although he missed some time with an injury, the New York slugger is batting .322/.404/.591 with 15 home runs—tied with Longoria and Adrian Beltre for third baseman in the AL—and 43 RBIs in only 230 at-bats. Longoria is cheaper, younger and better defensively, but Rodriguez is the superior hitter, by a long ways. If payroll is not an issue, he is the player who I would pick to build my team around. Plus, he essentially pays for himself anyway, with the amount of money he brings in to the Yankees.

Oh, and for those who feel that A-Rod chokes in the playoffs, I have two words for you: sample size.

LF: Manny Ramirez, Boston Red Sox: Carl Crawford has had a disappointing season, as his .321 on-base percentage is terrible for a number two hitter. He is an exciting player to watch, and—by far—the best defender at the position of the trio, if not in the majors, but is really kind of an overrated offensive player. He is a great fantasy player, with all of the steals, but he is not selective enough at the plate, and needs to walk more (21 walks in ’08). He is an excellent left fielder, still, but Manny is the only choice here. Again, payroll is a factor as Crawford is making one-fourth of Ramirez's $20-million for 2008, but Ramirez is one of the most prolific hitters in the game and is having another great season. He is batting .289/.378/.519 with 16 homers and 52 RBIs, for an OPS of .897. J.D. Drew has been more valuable to Boston in the first half, but Ramirez is a deserving candidate to start in the All-Star Game at Yankee Stadium. Johnny Damon? No thanks, I will pass.

I do not know if Manny gets docked or gains points for this.

CF: B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay Rays: Jacoby Ellsbury is fast, a tremendous stolen base threat and Longoria’s biggest competition for the AL Rookie of the Year.

But Upton is the no-brain selection here. While he has not hit for as much power yet this season, he has been the Rays’ most valuable offensive player, batting .286/.399/.415. The former number two overall pick truly has a great approach up there at the plate. There has been some recent talk about the D’Backs considering sending his younger brother, Justin, down to the minors because of his poor showing in June. Thus, perhaos Justin would be wise to attempt to emulate his older brother’s patient approach at the plate. B.J., leading Tampa Bay with 57 bases on balls, has one of the highest on-base percentages in the majors. While he has only five homers, the power should come in the second half. I project he will end up with a line of .290/.395/.440 and around 15 homers. Melky Cabrera is not in the same class of an Ellsbury or an Upton, but all three players are young and cheap at this point.

RF: J.D. Drew, Boston Red Sox: Drew is having a monster season. Although he is an expensive option, he had an excellent first half, batting .304/.417/.570, for a higher OPS (.986) than any Boston player. Drew ranks second in the AL in on-base percentage, runs scored (57, the correlation is no coincidence, folks), third in OPS and slugging percentage and eighth in home runs (15) and walks(57). Apologies to Eric Hinske, who is leading the Rays in OPS, but it is not even close. Bobby Abreu, who will make about one-third of the Rays’ payroll for 2008, is on the decline.

Rotation: Tampa Bay Rays: I am going with the Rays’ rotation, which is the biggest reason for the club’s first-half success. Matt Garza looked like a future ace this week down in Miami, Scott Kazmir is the best lefty in baseball and James Shields is up-and-coming legitmate number two starter. Andy Sonnanstine does not deserve to be 9-3, but he keeps the Rays in games (though he has had a lot of run support). And While Edwin Jackson is consistently inconsistent and struggles with his command at times, he is a tremendous talent. Not to mention, the organization is stacked with a plethora of promising young arms down on the farm they can call up at any time—perhaps even former number one pick David Price, now in Double-A, or Jeff Niemann.

Runner-up here is Boston, with a rotation consisting of Dice-K, the talented Justin Masterson, Clay Buchholz (now in the minors) and, of course, ace Josh Beckett. The Yankees put a lot of eggs in the Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy basket, and the pair combined has won fewer games than Niemann in 2008.

Mike Mussina, a legitimate All-Star candidate, continues to get hitters out, relying more on control and smarts. How long will it last, though? At Hank Steinbrenner’s request, he has turned into the right-handed version of Jamie Moyer. Still, with his lacking stuff, he has little room for error. If his command is ever off, he will struggle to make it through the third inning. Ace Chien-Ming Wang, the majors’ winningest pitcher over the past two seasons, is out until September. So, assuming New York does not acquire a proven starter (but whom, C.C. Sabathia?) at the trade deadline, there is no telling if the Yankees’ past luck of turning guys like Latrell—I mean, Shawn—Chacon into effective one-year pitchers will last. The club will score a lot of runs, but they will give up a lot of runs in the second half as well—though they should remain in the AL East/Wild Card race throughout the summer. Joba Chamberlain is certainly a nice addition, and will help in the second half.

The Yankees compiled a first-half starters’ ERA of 4.50, and the 11 pitchers the team has used to start have combined to post an opponents’ line of .277/.335/.412. Considering that the Moose has been their stopper, it is actually not all that bad.

The Rays, on the other hand, have only used seven starters—Kazmir, Shields, Garza, Jackson, Sonnanstine, Jason Hammel and Niemann—and the group has posted a 3.99 ERA, combining to limit hitters to a line of .255/.314/.403, for an opponents’ OPS of .717.

Setup Man: Dan Wheeler, Tampa Bay Rays: Before Joba joined the Yankees' starting rotation, he was easily the premier setup man in the AL East. Currently, though, the best option to pitch the eighth inning here is Wheeler, who has 18 holds while posting a 1.93 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 37.1 innings pitched.

Closer: Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox: New York pitcher Mariano Rivera is the greatest closer of all-time, and has 24 saves in 28 chances. He is making $15-million this season, however, and is 38 years old. He could break down in the second half. Papelbon, making under $1-million, has been equally effective, going a perfect 24-for-24 in save opportunities in the first half while posting a 2.00 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. He is the youngest of the group as well, obviously. Troy Percival has been invaluable to the Rays--for his pitching and positive influence in the clubhouse. But, judging by his four-walk performance down in Miami last week, he is still a huge question mark for Tampa Bay headed into the season's next 81 games.

Who would you guys pick for these spots?

To reach Tyler Hissey, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com.