The headline of a Rocky Mountain News article today reads, Hernandez becomes possible pitching help for Rockies.
Does it make sense to refer to Livan Hernandez as a pitcher who can actually help a baseball team at this point?
While
Francisco Liriano was making a mockery of the International League, the
Twins continued to run the reliable innings eater, Mr. Hernandez, out
there every fifth day. The reason, it seems, is because of the veteran
right-hander's misleading 10-8 record.
It is 2008, though, and
we now know that there are much better tools for judging a pitcher's
overall effectiveness, even the traditional ERA. Yet fans, and even
some within the industry, continue to put too much emphasis on wins and
losses, causing some to defend Hernandez's performance.
Sure,
the Twins were 14-9 in his starts. After all, a pitcher is supposed to
keep his team in the game, giving them a chance to win, right?
Hernandez,
however, was the ultimate benefactor of the Twins' tremendous stretch
of hitting with runners in scoring position and received his fair share
of, well, luck.
He has
given his club 139.2 innings pitched, living up to his reputation as a
"battler." During that span, though, he posted a 5.48 ERA, one of the
highest totals for qualifying starters in the American League, 54-to-29
K/W ratio and 1.63 WHIP.
Wow, he really did have some luck, huh?
To
be blunt, hitters have feasted on the man, posting a line of
.333/.368/.505 with 18 home runs. Heck, Minnesota could use that kind
of offensive production (.873 OPS) in its own lineup.
Seriously, he has not only been bad, he has been terrible.
Liriano,
who won his first start on Sunday, will improve the Twins' chances of
reaching the postseason by default. Even if he cannot replicate his
tremendous All-Star run in 2006, when he was unhittable alongside Johan
Santana, he ended the Hernandez days in the Twin cities, forcing the
club to designate the mediocre old man for assignment. Plus, they are no longer hook for the remaining $1.5 million left on his contract.
While
Hernandez was leading his team in victories when they finally reached
their senses, that was not going to last once the record began to fall
into place with the other factors at hand.
Pitching in the thin air at Coors
Field will certainly not help matters for him, though he will
potentially provide the bullpen with some necessary rest. The
innings-eating factor is the only reason why a team should debate
pursuing his services ever again. Desperate times call for desperate
measures, but do not expect a repeat of the Rockies' magical run to the
playoffs, and then World Series, from a year ago.
Colorado,
which could not decide to become buyers or sellers at the trade
deadline, is eight games back in the lowly National League West. Not to
mention, they have scored 54 fewer runs than they have allowed, sitting
with a 52-63 record.
Hernandez, or plan B Josh Fogg, may only make matters worse.
Rays' (Tyler)
I don't know that he'll be of much help to a team that it can be said that has underperformed after last year's season. That being said I'm somewhat surprised that Twins sought to disense with his services.
They may well be better off for it but I can't help but wonder what might happen should one of their front line pitchers go down injured.
Well, it was still good to get the remaining money from his deal off the books. Also, while he eats innings, Hernandez's performance (or lack there of) can be fairly easily replaced. He is just not that good, evident by his ERA. He will benefit from moving to the weaker league, but pitching in Coors Field will cancel a bit of that out.
Liriano is a huge IF for the Twins, perhaps the X factor. He looked good the other day, and was dominant in Triple-A (10 straight wins), but can stay healthy? I still do not see the Twins winning the Central. If Liriano does give them a boost, though, then who knows?
Last edited by RaysDigest on August 6th at 12:37 PM.
Rays' (Tyler)
A lot of Hernandez's lack of success also could be put down to the fact that he wasn't always given that much run support. And at the same time you're right he's not the pitcher first evidenced within the Marlins' organization.
As for Liriano he's a beast amongst boys when his game is really on.
Actually, it is quite the opposite. Hernandez has been lucky, and the reason that his record is decent is because he has received about as much run support of any pitcher in the AL. This shows why winning percentage is a misleading tool for judging how well a pitcher is doing.
His park-adjusted ERA+ is 74, with 100 being league average. If not for such great run support--perhaps if he had Johan Santana's luck with the Mets this year--his record would be around 6-12, not 10-8. As I said in the post, there is no way that his team will continue to provide him so much run support over a large sample size. It is called regression to the mean.
Last edited by RaysDigest on August 6th at 2:09 PM.
Rays(Tyler)
I always felt that last season's success of the Rockies would prove to be an aberration. Once again they're back to the depths of mediocrity.
Offcourse I'm happy to have Brett coming to play for the Buccaneers. Who wouldn't be ? Oh I can name someone Mayor, Jeff Garcia.
Oh oh here comes all of the Bucs' fans as they bequeath upon Favre the keys to the city of Tampa.
I just graduated from Eckerd College in St. Petersburg, Florida, with a business adminstration degree. During my days down in St. Pete as a student there, I began to follow and cover the Tampa Bay Rays for Scout.com. Fittingly, the franchise begins to win as soon as I leave.
I enjoy reading, watching and writing about baseball, taking BP and playing golf.
For me, Buster Olney's blog is a daily must read, though Rob Neyer is up there as well.
