The stage is set. The contenders have put their hats into the proverbial ring, and Big Brown is on the brink of being only the 12th contender in horse racing history to capture the elusive Triple Crown.
For us horse racing officiandos, it doesn't get much better than this.
I'm sure you are all aware of the Big Brown story. Lightly raced, dominant in all his victories, and an extremely confident trainer and jockey in his stable.
What you may not know is the incredible amount of history that is leaning AGAINST Big Brown to actually accomplish this amazing feat. What is the history going against him you ask?
Well here it is:
First off, there have been 134 Preakness Stakes, 135 Kentucky Derby's, and soon to be on Saturday, 140 Belmont Stakes ever raced.
That means, collectively, there could have only been 134 times a horse could have won a Triple Crown.
Only 29, and now 30, have ever had the chance in the final leg to complete the Triple Crown Trifecta. Only 11 have been successful thus far.
Of the 18 who have failed before Big Brown, there are some huge names in horse racing lore: Burgoo King, Tim Tam, Northern Dancer, Majestic Prince, Spectacular Bid, Alysheba,Sunday Silence, and Real Quiet. The most spectacular............. is likely.............. Spectacular Bid as he finished his racing career with 30 races in which he won 26, finished 2nd twice, and 3rd once.
Rick Dutrow Jr., BIg Brown's trainer, had never won a Triple Crown race until this year.
Kent Desormeaux, the jockey, has won the Kentucky Derby 3 times, the Preakness twice, and the Belmont ZERO times.
Oddly enough, in 1998, Kent Desormeaux was the jockey of the great horse Real Quiet. Real Quiet was on the verge of winning the elusive Triple Crown, to only get beat by a NOSE in the Belmont Stakes by Victory Gallop. The closest that horse has truly came to winning the elusive Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978.
So if Big Brown is to achieve this amazing feat, he has some definite historical trends going against him on Saturday. May we all root that he achieves this great task.
But......there is always a but. I'll be wagering AGAINST him from doing just that.
1. Big Brown (2-5): The chalk, the favorite, everything you can say. BUT..... is he ready for greatness?
2. Guadacanal (50-1): Has yet to break his maiden? And he just came off of a career best Beyer of 82? He is the only horse in the race to have ran a mile and half, but that was on turf and he obviously didn't win anyway. Has ran 5 times in his lifetime, finished 2nd twice, and third once. He was beaten by Tizzy. You know who Tizzy is? Should be 100-1 or better come post time.
3. Macho Again (20-1): Believe it or not, this horse was actually 'closing' on Big Brown in the Preakness. His 2nd place finish is respectable, but he was still beaten badly by 5 1/2 lengths by the big time favorite. The addition of Casino Drive makes him somewhat playable.
4. Denis of Cork (12-1): Another closer, in a closer rich race. The addition of Da' Tara could be his best friend in keeping an honest pace up front. This extremely well bred and talented horse could stew the pot if the first half mile is ran at :47 or so. Bet to win, or don't bet at all.
5. Casino Drive: (7-2): The supposed biggest contender to Big Brown has only ran two races coming into the Belmont. He is also a half sibling to the past two winners of the Belmont in Jazil and Rags to Riches. The win in the Peter Pan Stakes was nice, but it was against even weaker opponents than Big Brown has faced, and his win was not nearly as dominant. On the flip side, he has 'freak' talk much like Curlin of last year. Has to be heavily considered on any ticket.
6. Da' Tara: (30-1): Looks like this will be the early pace of the race. Big Brown beat this guy by 23 plus lengths in the Florida Derby, as he didn't fire. His last 2 races however showed huge improvement, and we should fully expect this horse to fire to the front and press the pace. Problem is, Big Brown and company should not be scared of this entrant in the least. At a mile and a half, this simply looks to be the rabbit, and if he can last on top farther than a mile and some change, it could possibly 'start' to make it very interesting.
7. Tale of Ekati: (16-1): The horse that everyone has been waiting to fire a big one is still maintaining his connections with that same hope. Finished 4th in the Derby, but he was WAY back. Hasn't raced since. Thus he should be fresh, and from reports from the barn and alike, this horse should be as ready as ever to challenge. Problem is, do you really think he can improve by 11 lenghts in which he faded in the Derby anyway? Tough to like.
8. Anak Nakal: (33-1): Another talented horse, much like Tale of Ekati, that people are waiting for to burst upon the scene. After winning his maiden at 17 to 1, this guy has ran in nothing but graded stakes races. Nick Zito in his barn is a plus, and for him to take another chance with him is appealing since he trained the 36-1 shot Birdstone to victory over Smarty Jones a few years ago. Biggest problem? He isn't training all that well, and he runs very evenly in the end. Tough to make a play on him other than the connections. Put in the bottom end of exotics only.
9. Ready's Echo: (40-1): Here is your shot. Much like Macho Again was closing on Big Brown in The Preakness, this guy was making a HUGE move on Casino in the Peter Pan. He finished a distant 6 and 1/4 lengths behind Casino in that one, but he looked to have the best stride of late in that one as well. His Beyers are improving in every race and Todd Pletcher in the barn is very intriguing. This IS your longshot contender.
10. Icabad Crane: (35-1): Another deep closer in a field of deep closers. The biggest disclaimer was that after he took over 2nd in the Preakness he faltered down the stretch to finish 3rd behind Macho Again. He is improving every race, and his falter down the stretch of the Preakness may just be the seasoning that this lightly raced colt needed. At 35-1, he is your other bomb to throw on top, or for Exacta greatness.
In the end, this is how I see it:
In the 1st half mile we see an evenly paced field with Da'Tara out to a 3 or 4 length lead. he will run a :47 and some change as he will try to steal the race on top. Nearing 6 furlongs, we should expect Casino and/or Big Brown start to reel in Da'Tara. If the pace is at 1:12 or faster, be scared if you are a Big Brown fan. However, I see it at 1:12:2 to 1:13:4. And if it is 1:13 or better it will simply be a 2 horse race with Big Brown and Casino Drive. But what my gut tells me is that Desormeaux has ridden Casino and Big Brown before, and he will 'press' Big Brown for the 1st time in his career this early before a finish line. He has huge respect for Casino. In his mind I truly believe that if he can put Casino away the race is over. Such is the expectation. At the mile pole with Big Brown putting Casino away, look for Ready's Echo, Icabad Crane, and Denis of Cork start to make their move. If Big Brown crosses the mile pole at a time of 1:35 to 1:36, he is likely in trouble. I figure it to be around 1:36 due to the Casino influence. Then we will see what he has. And it is THEN the racing begins. The stretch at The Belmont is long and grueling. Smarty Jones came into that same stretch a few years ago 3 lengths ahead, and the crowd cheering, only to get lapped by a late charging Birdstone. Look for either Ready's Echo or Denis of Cork to make a serious run at Big Brown late, and maybe even both. And at the finish line we have..........
Denis of Cork, followed by Big Brown, followed by Ready's Echo. If you are looking for the Superfecta, throw in Icabad Crane or Tale of Ekati in the 4 spot.
Then again, Casino Drive will actually put them all away. And unfortunately stave off yet another Triple Crown contender. Just slide in Casino for Big Brown, and then substitute Casino finishing the task at hand. Big Brown will finish a disappointing 4th behind, Casino, Denis, and Ready's.
The media hyped Kimbo Slice made his national television debut last night with his 3rd MMA fight against James "the Colossus" Thompson. Needless to say, Kimbo was far from impressive. And in all honesty, he was severely exposed as a gigantic fraud.
Fighting in his 1st MMA fight that lasted longer than a single round, Kimbo Slice was getting beat by Thompson as they headed into the 3rd and final round. In fact, it could be argued that the fight could have been stopped with Colossus on top of Slice near the end of the 2nd, and some may argue that Slice tried to 'tap out' during the final minute of round 2 as well. It also looked like Kimbo may have tapped in round 1 with Thompson on top.
Then, 38 seconds into round 3 the fight was called as Kimbo landed a few bombs, cut Thompsons cauliflowered ear, and had him severely dazed. Should it have been stopped? Probably not at that time, but Kimbo would have likely landed another bomb to knock Thompson out. At the least, Thompson should have been given a chance. The same chance Kimbo was given during the final 2 minutes of round 2 when he simply laid on his back with little or no defense and Thompson pounding away on him.
In the end, Kimbo was severely exposed on national television as a rather large fraud. Can he punch? Sure. Can he wrestle? No. Does he have a ground game? Not even close. James Thompson is a barely above average MMA heavyweight fighter. He also showed that he will struggle mightily against bigger opponents. When put on the ground, Kimbo showed that his strength has been vastly exaggerated as well. He had severe difficulty trying to move Thompson when he was on top. There are much bigger and stronger fighters in the MMA than Thompson. There are better fighters on the ground, AND on their feet. One also has to be concerned about his stamina. After the fight, Kimbo could not even finish his interview.
If Kimbo truly wants to take the next step in the MMA, then he has a ton of work to do. But I severely doubt his chances of ever competing with the likes of Fedor, Couture, Sylvia, and Noguieira.
After watching last nights debacle, I can hardly see Kimbo ever being competitive with these guys. There should not be a sanctioned governing body that would even allow a man as unskilled as Kimbo to step into the ring with any of these guys. His health, and maybe even his life, would be in serious danger. I wouldn't even give him a punchers chance, and he would not last more than 2 minutes with any of these guys.
So what's next for Kimbo the Bimbo? Hopefully this will mark the end of his MMA career. At best, he can be a sideshow event much like Butterbean was for Boxing. We are now hearing rumors of a Tyson vs. Kimbo fight. And that is exactly the level of competition that Kimbo should be fighting. Would a ton of people watch that circus? I have no doubts about it. Fighting in bar brawls is one thing. Fighting an elitely trained fighting machine of the likes that we find in the top end of the MMA is another. And after watching Kimbo fight last night, it is hard to see him EVER being able to fight at that level.
Maybe he can enter the annual Tough Man contest. It is the Tough Man contest that brought us the likes of Mr. T, Tommy Morrison, and Butterbean. And that is exactly his level of fighting skill.
What is the official color of summer you ask? Brown. As in Big Brown.
In yesterday's Preakness Stakes, Big Brown left little doubt as to who was the best horse in the race. Winning by a convincing 5 1/4 lengths, Big Brown breezed home under the guidance of jockey Kent Desormeaux and his single urging hand ride. I'm sure PETA people will be very happy to know that Mr. Desormeaux never used his whip in bringing Big Brown home to victory in one of the more dominating victories in the history of the Preakness Stakes. If urged, it was readily apparent that Big Brown could have ran a faster time if he were challenged. But, in itself, the finishing time of 1:54.80 is very comparable to some of the great horses of lore. Seatle Slew, Secretariat, and Affirmed all ran the Preakness in 1:54:2/5s. Spectacular Bid in 1:54:3/5s and the great Sunday Silence in 1:53: 4/5s. More importantly his winning time is faster than any previous horse since Real Quiet's time of 1:54.75 in 1998.
Now, only the Belmont Stakes is in wait to see if Big Brown is good enough to capture the elusive Triple Crown. A title that has evaded horse racing for the last 30 years. From the looks of the 1st two legs, it merely looks like the Belmont will be a ceremonial romp for this 3 Year Old Derby and now Preakness Champion.
But..........
There is another horse that maybe you haven't heard of just yet. A horse by the name of Casino Drivehas splashed onto the scene with his recent, and also dominant victory in the Peter Pan Stakes on May 10th at Belmont Park. Coincidentally the same track the Belmont Stakes will be run on as well.
Pictured: Casino Drive winning the Peter Pan Stakes with Kent Desormeaux on board.
Also noteworthy is that Kent Desormeaux was the jockey for both of these horses during their recent blow out victories and according to DesormeauxCasino Drive is Big Brown's biggest competition in the Belmont Stakes.
I don't think I can argue.
The breeding on Casino Drive is spectacular with the sire being Mineshaft, and the mare being Better Than Honour. But more importantly, Casino Drive is a sibling of the last two Belmont winners in Jazil and Rags to Riches who were both offspring of Better Than Honour.. By the mere looks of the Peter Pan victory and breeding alone, Casino Drive is the biggest challenger that Big Brown will have faced in his bid for the elusive Triple Crown.
Another ring to throw into the fire is that Casino Drive does not have American connections. He was purchased at Keeneland in their September auction in 2006. From there he was quickly shipped to Japan by his owner Hidetoshi Yamamoto. Once in Japan, Hidetoshi quickly threw over the reins of Casino Drive to be trained by Kazuo Fujisawa, who is one of the best trainers in Japan, if not the best. For many years the Japanese have been purchasing horses in America in an effort to build their 'bloodlines' amongst their thoroughbred industry. They have yet to produce a horse that can compete with the great American or European horses, but it hasn't been due to lack of effort. Many princes from Saudi Arabia have been doing the same as well. We have simply been waiting for these 'hot spots' in breeding to start producing some champions of their own as they have been long-standing purchasers of top-end colts in America for quite some time. Casino Drive looks like the best that they have yet to offer. And we should fully expect this trend to continue in the years to come.
Other challengers to Big Brown's Triple Crown pursuit? Behindatthebar is likely the best colt in America that has yet to test his wares against him. He is also a deep closer that has ran into some health problems that have kept him out of both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness. It is very likely that Pletcher will take a run at the Belmont to challenge Big Brown. Ready's Echo ran a reasonable race in finishing 3rd to Casino Drive in the Peter Pan Stakes. He was also the only horse left that was actually closing on the eventual winner nearing the finish line. The extra distance should do him some good. Icabad Crane ran into some traffic in the Preakness but finished a respectalbe 3rd, while Macho Again was closing somewhat in his 2nd place finish yesterday as well. And finally, another filly. Proud Spell is likely the best 3 year old filly in the country. And yes that includes a now departed Eight Belles. Her win in the Kentucky Oaks was very impressive on a sloppy track, and she would be fresh if asked to run in the Belmont. One only has to look back to last year and notice that a filly took the boys down at the vaunted mile and a half distance. This filly may be as good or better than Rags to Riches.
Another noteworthy aspect is that Casino Drive will be making only his 3rd start in his career when he takes on Big Brown in the Belmont Stakes. Noteworthy since his owner and trainer felt he 'bounced' a bit in his win in the Peter Pan Stakes but still ran a 101 Beyer speed figure. Something that no horse other than ####ego had produced of all the challengers in the Preakness yesterday. It was Big Brown's 3rd lifetime start that really put him on the radar as the best 3 year old in the country. His wide sweeping 5 length victory in the Tampa Bay Derby served notice that this was the colt to beat in Kentucky.
Big Brown has yet to run a bad race. Casino Drive possibly had his 'supposed' clunker in the Peter Pan, and still ran a very respectable Beyer Speed Figure. IFBig Brown were to bounce, Casino Drive is likely the 'bouncee'. The Belmont Stakes has shattered the dreams of 18 other colts who have headed to the Belmont with the elusive Triple Crown in their sites. Only 11 out of the possible 29 horses who have started the Belmont Stakes have won the race to complete the Triple Crown trifecta.
The mile and a half distance that the Belmont Stakes is run at is truly the test of a champion. Especially when any Triple Crown hopeful will be running in this race for the 3rd time in as few as 5 weeks. Elite horses rarely run more than once a month, and most times around 4 to 8 times during any calendar year. To run 3 times in 5 weeks is a very daunting task indeed, and is likely the main reason why there have only been 11 horses who have ever accomplished this incredible feat.
Casino Drive will have had 4 weeks rest coming into the Belmont. Big Brown will be off of 3 weeks rest, in which he ran a previous race 2 weeks before that in the Kentucky Derby. There will not be another horse in the race with as many races in such a short period of time as Big Brown in the Belmont. Heck, only 1 trainer felt their horse was fresh or ready enough after the Derby to challenge Big Brown in the Preakness. And we all saw how badly ####ego faded yesterday. He will be facing the freshest of challengers, in which many of them will be well-equipped to handle the mile and half distance that the Belmont offers. Big Brown also has had a history of foot problems. It severely hampered his 2 year old campaign, and delayed the start to his 3 year old campaign. In fact, it is such a concern for Dutrow that he wears special shoes to protect his very sensitive hooves/feet. It would not be at all that shocking if Big Brown were to be at less than 100% when the gates open for the Belmont. And fingers crossed, an ailment that would keep from racing at all.
But such is the vaunted trail of the Triple Crown.
But if we have learned anything in the 1st 2 races of the Triple Crown, Big Brown may not need his best effort to win and he has yet to be pushed to see what he truly has left in the tank. Past contenders in War Emblem, Funny Cide, Charasmatic and Smarty Jones were all front-runners who had serious questions regarding the mile and a half distance. They also were 'lumbering' down the stretch in their victories in the Preakness after the mile and a quarter Kentucky Derby test. You will be hard pressed to find a horse racing afficianodo question Big Brown's distance limitations coming into this year's Belmont.
The biggest question is likely the competition that Big Brown has ran against. Without a doubt this is the weakest crop of 3 year olds that I have ever witnessed participate in this years Triple Crown. There are so few contenders who have ever ran a career Beyer speed figure of 100. Normally, you would find over half of the contestants in any Triple Crown race with those credentials. Along with the sporting of multiple wins and respectable times. We just haven't seen that this year outside of Big Brown. Most naysayers to Big Brown's spectacular runs in the Derby and Preakness will point to these well-founded arguments. The competition has been weak. Nobody can really argue against that.
But when the gates open for the Belmont, Big Brown will be facing at least 1 horse that is better than any he has faced yet in his career. And likely 3, with Behindatthebar and Kentucky Oaks winner Proud Spell along with Casino Drive. All the hype surrounding Eight Belles is good, but Proud Spell is widely recognized as the best 3 year old filly this year. And after Rags to Riches win in last years Belmont, don't put it past her to win it this year.
The stage is set. And the question remains. Is Big Brown that good? Can he beat a fresher horse in Casino Drive? Can he beat an EXTREMELY fresh colt in Behindatthebar? And, maybe best of all. Can he hold off another filly? A filly, in Proud Spell, that most think is/was better than Eight Belles?
The annual Run for the Roses is upon us, and is only a mere 6 days away. The 134th running of the Kentucky Derby is scheduled to be run on May 3rd @ 5:00 EDT, and yours truly is going to be there.
You can have your Super Bowl, your World Series, even your NBA Finals. Me? I'll take the Kentucky Derby as my favorite sporting event, and won't even bat an eye. Regardless of what happens, the Derby always delivers. As they say, the "Most Exciting 2 Minutes in All of Sports".
Coming into 2008, the Derby favorite was the undefeated War Pass. And why not. His dominating performance in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile announced him as such. He simply parked a field by 4 and 3/4's lengths that was supposed to be the best 2 year olds in the world. Pyro was his only challenger, and that wasn't even close. The 3rd place horse, Kodiak Kowboy was a mere 16 3/4's lengths behind War Pass.
Then in his 2nd start in 2008, War Pass ran into some trouble in the Tampa Bay Derby on March 15th. For the 1st time in his career, War Pass was not on the lead. For the 1st time in his career, War Pass was going to have to pass someone to win. What happened next pretty much shocked the horse racing world. Not only did War Pass not pass ANYBODY, but he retreated and finished dead last against a pretty weak field of contestants. He simply was never a factor. He was then shipped to Aqueduct to compete in the Wood Memorial. He had a ton of questions to answer. Although he ran a gutty race, he still finished second to a 'closing' Tale of Ekati. I use the term closing very generously. Tale of Ekati simply passed him by default as War Pass was seriously faltering coming down the stretch. Now War Pass has incurred an injury, and will not even compete in the Kentucky Derby.
So who is in this year's field?
Mike Watchmaker will likely make the undefeated Big Brown as the pre-race favorite. Colonel John and Pyro will also see heavy wagering action as well in what looks to be one of the weakest Kentucky Derby fields in quite some time. The probable favorite, Big Brown, has only run 3 career races, including only 1 race in which he has run longer than a mile. That is very disturbing in the fact that every horse in this years field will be running a Mile and a quarter race for the very first time in their lives. Stamina is one of the key factors in determining a Derby winner. The first question any bettor of the Derby has to ask themselves is whether their selected horse can run a mile and a quarter. This simple question often eliminates over half of the field.
The list of entrants has not been finalized, but here are the likely candidates. I have 21 horses listed, but only 20 will get in.
Pyro : Even at odds of 5 to 1, many a wiseguy will be on this Asmussen trained colt who is well seasoned, and has proven that he can win at Churchill and run in any assortment of racing styles: on the lead, stalking, or even as a deep closer. Versatility is needed when racing in the Derby. Definite contender.
Tale of Ekati: His win at Aqueduct was more by the default of War Pass than anything else. However, many racing afficianados have been waiting for this Colt to blossom. After his win the Belmont Futurity last year, this Tagg trained Colt has been a bit of a disappointment. His win in the Wood may be just the ticket to unleash this extremely talented colt.
Colonel John: The West Coast champion(?) has been impressive throughout his 1st 6 races, winning 4, and finishing 2nd twice. The big concern is that he has not been dominating, and West Coast horses have not fared well in the Derby as of late. He will likely need a career effort to hit the board. His odds at anything less than 10 to 1 seem a bit overpriced for me. The only horses he has beaten in this field are Monba and Bob Black Jack. The last, at the wire in the 1st time that colt ran over a mile, much less a mile and an eigth. Not too mention, Georgia Boy, who is not running is likely the best colt out west anyway.
####ego: 5 lifetime starts, 3 wins and 2 seconds. This horse held tough down the stretch in his last in the Arkansas Derby. He is improving every race, and may be primed to pop a big one on Saturday. The big question for ####ego is his pedigree. He is simply not geared to run a mile and a quarter.
Big Brown: Tough not to like this colt when you compare him to the others. Has been impressive in all 3 of his outings, and romped to a 5 length victory despite the 12 hole post and torrid fractions in the Florida Derby. Bar none, this is the most talented horse in the field, but a horse has never won the Derby with only 3 lifetime starts entering the race. A huge hurdle he will have to overcome.
Z Humor: Hard to see this colt being much of a factor for the win. Finishing 3rd, 4th, and 5th in his last 3 races, Z Humor has proven that he cannot beat a lot of the horses in this field. He will likely need a perfect trip just to hit the board. The only factor on his side is that he is bred to run the distance, thus he should not falter coming down the stretch, and may have something more in the tank than we have seen thus far.
Monba: This colt looked like he was done after a 12th place finish in the Fountain of Youth. Suprisingly he came back to beat 5 of his rivals in this race to capture the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. Those rivals include Pyro, Cool Coal Man, Visionaire, Big Truck, and Cowboy Cal. Pletcher is arguably the best trainer in the world, but Prado leaving this mount has to be a concern. Another note is that the Keeneland victory was slow and also on PolyTrack.
Court Vision: If you are looking for a deep closer this is your horse. This colt has also had problems in his last two, but still managed to hit the board. He had a sizzling work on the 17th, and has won on this track before. Gomez has won the Derby before in the irons, and Mott is one of the most well-respected trainers in the country. He will likely go off at odds of 15 to 1 or better. Very intriguing, and has the pedigree to go the distance.
Z Fortune: Tough horse to gauge. Has not won in his last 3 starts, and even when running against much lesser competition. Did run a strong race for a 2nd to Pyro in the Risen Star and 2nd to ####ego in the Arkansas Derby. Asmussen is a great trainer, but this guy just seems to be a notch or two below many in this race.
Adriano: Hasn't really beaten anybody of note, and when he stepped up to stiff competition in the Fountain of Youth, he was simply never a factor. Don't read too much into the Lane's End Stakes win at Turfway, that was a less than stellar field and it was run in an extremely sluggish time. Looks like a career effort is needed just to hit the board. Since he is a stalker, that just doesn't seem very likely to happen.
Recapturetheglory: The win in the Illinois Derby has to be respected. He took the lead and put many of these away down the stretch while romping to a 4 length victory. That was just the race this colt needed. You will likely get this guy at odds of 20 to 1 or better, and past Derby champions have used a romp in the Illinois Derby as a path to success before. A definite longshot contender that should be on or close to the lead from the start. Breeding says he can go the distance.
Smooth Air: Has done no worse than 3rd in 7 lifetime starts, and finished a respectable 2nd to Big Brown in the Florida Derby although he was 5 lengths behind. The major question for this guy is the distance. I just can see him going a mile and a quarter, and he won't be on the lead anyway. Tough to like, and will likely be at 50 to 1 odds or more.
Cool Coal Man: Very talented colt who was the winner of the Fountain of Youth Stakes against a very strong field. His falter in the Toyota Blue Grass at Keeneland can be forgiven since it was on PolyTrack. The disturbing news is his 7th place finish the only time he has run at Churchill. His worst performance in his career. If you feel the Fountain of Youth is the true bearing of this colt, then he is a definite contender. Tough horse to gauge, but should be a serious consideration for the win and on any exotic ticket. You will also get some serious odds of 30 to 1 or better.
Anak Nakal: Another Nick Zito entry that just hasn't shown much in 2008 with finishes of 5th, 7th, and 8th in his last 3 races. But Zito isn't giving up on this Colt just yet. We have been waiting for this colt to fire in 2008, and he has won on this track before. If you are looking for a SERIOUS long shot, this might be your ticket. Likely to go off at more than 50 to 1. Breeding says he will handle the distance. Big question is if he can get into contention coming into the stretch? Highly unlikely that he can improve by 20 lengths, but this horse can close, and does have talent.
Eight Belles: Ahhhhh...... a filly. We have not had a filly in the Kentucky Derby since Silverbulletday back in 1999. Don't count this lady out, we all learned a lesson in last year's Belmont Stakes when Rags to Riches put the boys away at the mile and a half distance. This filly has already ran 6 career races over a mile in distance and has won her last four. She may run in the Kentucky Oaks on friday, but don't count her out from running against the boys. If she does, she should be very competitive, and could even pull a shocker and win. Larry Jones is a great trainer, and this horse could put some ####e into this race. Consider her at the least in any exotic wagers.
Cowboy Cal: Will need to be on the lead to have a shot, and even so, it is highly unlikely he can finish the mile and a quarter distance. His best chance would be to hang on and hit the board, but I doubt he even has the lead. Will need a great post, and a great trip to even be a factor. He will likely turn into a miler sometime this year.
Behindatthebar: That was a big time close at Keeneland in his last, and in a pretty good time as well. This colt has basically come out of nowhere in the past month, but looks like he can be ready to unload a big one on Saturday. With Pletcher guiding and Flores on the mount, you have to give this horse some serious consideration. He'll be coming late, and if fractions up front are torrid, he should be in the mix. At 25 to 1 or better, another intriguing longshot contender.
Visionaire: Tough to like. A closer who doesn't like the distance. Has also struggled against many of these before. Wouldn't be surprised if he gets pulled for a different race.
Big Truck: His win in the Tampa Bay Derby may be about as good as this horse can do. And that won't even put him into the top 10 on Saturday. Hard to see this guy even hitting the board. Look elsewhere.
Bob Black Jack: I hope this guy gets in. Primarily thought of as a sprinter, this colt ran a strong 2nd to Colonel John in the Santa Anita Derby in his 2nd effort going more than a mile. The World Record Holder at 6 furlongs, this colt could set some torrid fractions and may cause some big problems for Big Brown if he gets caught up with him. This guy could be a huge factor in the pace of this race if he gets in. Other horses such as War Emblam have 'stolen' the Derby in the past by getting to a comfortable lead with generous fractions. His effort in the Santa Anita Derby could have been just the ticket to give this guy the needed stamina to cover the mile and a quarter. If he gets a good post, he could be a serious contender.
Denis of Cork: The likely odd man out would get some serious wiseguy heat if he gets in. With only 4 lifetime starts, and 3 wins, this horse has some tactical speed that many others don't possess. His victory in the Southwest Stakes in which he closed from 18 lengths back has to be respected. Big problem. He didn't handle the mile and an eighth distance at the Illinois Derby very well, and wasn't much of a factor. He will have to uncork a career best, but may be just primed to do so. One of the best bred horses in the race.
Well, that is the probable entrants for Saturday. I'll be at the race firing back a Mint Julep or two, and likely wagering way too much money. I haven't found my winner yet, but will likely post sometime later this week.
Happy wagering all, and best of luck.
WAGERING NOTE: One of the key factors often used in picking a Derby winner is that 18 of the last 20 winners have posted a 104 Beyer or better prior to running in the Derby. If you look at this years field that limits it to 3 contestants. Bob Black Jack (109), Big Brown (106), and Pyro (105). Others that were close are ####ego (103), Z Fortune (102), and Recapturetheglory (102). Only 1 other horse has cracked a 100, and that is Eight Belles with a 100 Beyer.
Welcome to the Sistine Chapel of the golf world: Augusta National Golf Club.
The Masters is THE greatest golf tournament in all the world. It also happens to be played on the most pristine and scenic golf course in all the world as well. The only course with more history and tradition is the Royal and Ancient Golf Club of St. Andrews in Scotland.
Sure you can argue that golf, and in particular The Masters, is home to an elitist and racist sport filled with rich white men wearing plaid pants and argyle sweater vests. Baseball and Football have their black eyes as well. Heck, not until 1975 was a black man even allowed to play in the Masters when Lee Elder teed it up at Augusta. Charlie Sifford was the first black man to even play in a PGA Tour event back in 1952. And much like Jackie Robinson in baseball, he endured many death threats and fan bigotry throughout his PGA Tour career.
But enough about the negatives. I'm tired of all the negative stories, comments, and fan hate in the sports world today. How about a good story. A story of athletes doing the right thing. A story of a sport filled with role models and level-headed athletes. To this end, I give you: Golf. 'Or as they say in Scotland, '####', without the 'L'.'
The biggest star in the Golf world today is without a doubt one Eldrick 'Tiger' Woods. In fact Tiger Woods is THE biggest star athlete in all the world. Period. End of story. Sadly, Tiger is more recognized around the world than the President of the United States.
Along with Tiger, the major stars in golf are bunch of good guys. Guys that if they asked for your daughters hand in marriage you wouldn't even bat an eye. Tiger, Phil Mickelson, Ernie Els, Vijay Singh, Retief Goosen, Adam Scott, Jim Furyk, Steve Stricker, and Geoff Ogilvy. Most, if not all, of these players also support several charities and non-profit organizations. Tiger Woods has the Tiger Woods Foundation among many of his charities. Phil Mickelson supports the 'Birdies for the Brave' which supports the familes of troops stationed over in Iraq. And the list goes on and on. With little or no fanfare, these types of actions are actually EXPECTED of PGA Tour players. They are the norm, not the exception. In fact you would be hard pressed to find a player on the PGA Tour that does not support some type of charitable foundation or non-profit organization. Quite pleasing when you consider the Pac Man Jones, Michael Vicks, Chris Henrys, Barry Bonds, and Roger Clemens of the world. The self-inflated ego's and lack of reality amongst our sports heroes today is an old and familiar story. However, on a good note, outside of Notah Be#### and John Daly, golfers make headlines for the right reasons. When golfers are interviewed you aren't lambasted with a series of 'ums', 'you knows', and disturbing self-aggrandizement. Interviews and conversations with Tiger and Phil are like chats you have with your buddies over a few beers at your local bar and grill. Honest, straight-forward, and humble. So if you want to tune in and watch some 'good guy' athletes, be sure to tune into the Masters this weekend. And if golf isn't your cup of tea, it is a great way to catch up on some sleep.
Now for the tournament at hand.
At the halfway point South African Trevor Immelman holds a 1 stroke lead over little known American Brandt Snedeker. Others chasing Trevor include Phil Mickelson, Ian Poulter, Paul Casey, Stewart Cink, Mike Weir, Retief Goosen, Lee Westwood, Jim Furyk, Vijay Singh, and Tiger Woods. As it stands there are 20 golfers left that have a chance of donning the elusive Green Jacket come Sunday.
Why 20 you ask? There are 20 golfers that are within 8 shots of the lead. NO ONE has ever came back from more than 8 shots to win the Masters. Not Tiger. Not Jack. Not Arnie. NO ONE. Barring a complete meltdown of the entire leaderboard, Tiger Woods will need to string together two rounds in the 60's if he is to don his 5th all-time Green Jacket. A task he has yet to accomplish over his last 6 rounds at Augusta. Needless to say the even money favorite entering this weekends play is far from your favorite right now. But if there is anything that Tiger has taught us, it is to never discount him from pulling off the impossible. More times than not when he is seriously challenged he usually comes through. Look for Tiger to post a 68 or better today, as he claws himself back into this thing.
On the other hand we have Phil Mickelson. Arguably the 2nd biggest star in the golf world today. At -5 under par, and only 3 shots back, Phil is in great position to earn his 4th major title of his career. With only non-major winners Immelman and Snedeker in front of him, one would have to consider Phil as the odds on favorite to take home the title on Sunday. Personally, I don't think he will do it. After his collapse in the 2006 US Open at Winged Foot, Phil just hasn't been the same. It will be interesting to see how he reacts under the microscope once again while in contention for a major championship.
Another story to watch for is the rise of Trevor Immelman. Often cited for having one of the greatest golf swings in all the world, we have been waiting for this budding star to break through and win his 1st major. This could be his breakthrough weekend. Ian Poulter, the man who claims that he is Tiger's greatest challenger, is also in great shape to claim his 1st major title. Let's just hope he doesn't blind us this weekend with an assortment of clothing that would make Boy George seem normal. Other guys looking to break through? Stewart Cink, Lee Westwood, and Paul Casey. All great players and guys who have been close before. All are players who are expected to win a major before their careers are finished.
Should be another fantastic finish at Augusta National, with many a 'feel-good' story on the line. So if you are looking for something positive in the sportsworld today, sit back and catch and hour or two of the greatest golf tournament in all the world this weekend. If nothing else, when the winner is interviewed he will be thankful, grateful, sincere, honest, and lastly, you will be able to understand what it is he is saying. You know?
My pick to win? I'll go with Trevor Immelman. And if not Trevor, I'll take Paul Casey.
First off, let me apologize about the off topic nature of this blog. But this is so utterly ridiculous and amazing that I still can't even believe it. The saddest part is that this is a TRUE story. Someone needs to call Ripley's.........
You think that you have had a rough couple years? You think your life has been in the dumps?
And last but not least, is it Kermit, or Bob Costas?
Isn't it grand when life imitates art? Even a Tarheel fan has to get a chuckle out of the Hansbrough/Beeker similarities. John Clayton on the other hand. One just has to feel sorry for the poor fella. He is a very intelligent man, but he definitely has a mug made for radio. Dan Dierdorf? I'm sure he has put down a Swedish meatball or two in his day.
This blog was not intended to harm, slander, or discredit any of the peple pictured. It is merely a sad attempt at childish humor.
In case you have been under a rock the past couple of days, Tiger Woods defeated Stewart Cink in match play competition on Sunday to win in the WGC Accenture Match Play Championship. His 63rd career PGA Tour win.
With his win on Sunday, Tiger surpassed golfing legend Arnold Palmer to ascend to 4th place, alone, in career PGA Tour victories. Only Ben Hogan (64), Jack Nicklaus (73), and Sam Snead (82) remain ahead of him. And in all reality, it merely seems like a matter of time before all 3 of these golfing legends will be residing in Woods' rear-view mirror.
The debate for Greatest Golfer of All-Time is beginning to become a clearer picture as each tournament passes by. Right now, as it stands, Tiger Woods is 6 Majors, and 10 total wins away from surpassing the man who is widely recognized as the Greatest Golfer of All-Time: Jack Nicklaus. Make your argument any which way you want, but be prepared for some startling statistics.
The numbers of every golfer considered in these stats other than Tiger, is their win percentage between their 1st PGA Tour event, and their last victory on tour. It discounts the numerous amount of tournaments that these legends played in when they were markedly less competitive.
A startling number to think about, is that Tiger could go winless over his next 170 tournaments and still have a greater winning percentage than the adjusted numbers for Jack Nicklaus. Tiger now plays an average of around 16 touraments per year. That means he would need to go winless for the next 10+ years. I don't think any of us are expecting that to happen.
Tiger Woods has been named PGA Tour Player of the Year a record 9 times, including a record 5 straight. The 2nd most? Tom Watson with 6 and Jack Nicklaus with 5.
Tiger Woods has won the Vardon Trophy a record 7 times. The Vardon Trophy goes to the PGA Tour player with the lowest scoring average. He also holds the 3 lowest Vardon scoring averages based upon actual, and adjusted scores.
There is only 1 man in front of Tiger regarding Major Championship victories. At his current pace, we should expect Tiger to surpass Mr. Nicklaus sometime in 2011. From there, his assault on the golf record books will be in his control. By that time, we should also expect that he will have passed legendary Sam Snead's 83 tour victories as well. Afterall, Tiger is 32 years old, and is in the absolute Prime of his golfing career. When Nicklaus was 32 he was at the start of his most successful 4 year stretch in his entire career from 1972 to 1975. During these 4 years he won 22 tournaments including 5 major championships.
If Tiger were to 'match' Nicklaus' same records over that time period, he would have 18 Majors, and 85 total tournament victories. But as we have all seen throughout his career, Tiger hasn't simply matched Nicklaus' career records, he has surpassed them every step of the way. Why should his golfing Prime be any different?
The time has come Mr. Nicklaus, for you to step aside, and hand down your title. A title you have worn for well over 3 decades. And a title you have worn well. But as they say, records and titles are made to broken. Time to throne the new........
According to recent stories, one of the Rutgers Women's Basketball team members is suing Don Imus for the stress and anxiety caused by Imus's comments on their team as being "Nappy-headed ####'s". Coincidentally, Don Imus just settled out of court with CBS for an undisclosed amount, as well as signing a new contract with Sirius radio.
"Tom Taylor, news editor of Radio-Info.com, says Imus' public fall from grace made him more famous — and marketable.
"He's in a really great bargaining position.""
I'm sure Don Imus will settle out of court with this young lady, giving her a mere scrap of what he settled for with CBS. Don Imus settled with CBS due to a 'breach of contract' by CBS. His absolute right due to a clause in his contract with the media giant. Imus was supposed to stir up controversy. That is what today's Shock Journalism is all about. Nary does anyone report simply the facts anymore. It is more about throwing out an opinion that will #### off as many people as possible. How these people sleep at night is beyond me. But, that is what they are paid for, and that is why CBS settled out of court with Mr. Imus.
Now onto the Rutgers basketball team member. You got your wish. Mr. Imus was fired for doing his job. Isn't that enough? No. Not in America. Everybody wants their piece. If you can't beat 'em, sue 'em. That is the new American way. I'm sure Imus will settle out of court with this girl, but what he should do is go to court and defend himself, and at the same time, teach this young lady a lesson. I'm sure his lawyers would have little effort in stirring up some controversy about this young lady, and will likely find out that she has made racial comments at some point in time in her life. I wonder how she would feel when 10 or more of her friends were brought into the court room to testify against her? Be careful what you ask for, you just might get it.
In another unrelated story, an employee of Lida Toy Company in Hong Kong hung himself amid the allegations surrounding his company using lead paint for toys manufactured by Mattell. Currently, the toy giant Mattell is embroiled in a controversy that they have made over 9 million toys that contain lead paint. They have since recalled these toys, and have found out that the China factory had used outsourced resources to paint some of their toys. The Lida Toy Company was one of them. http://news.independent.co.uk/world/asia/article 2861730.ece
Do we notice a glaring difference here? A man in Hong Kong kills himself because he has brought so much shame and controversy to his company. I'm sure this isn't the last that we hear about such a story from China. In America if an employee shames his company, they sue the company. In China, the employee takes his responsibility so serious, that killing himself is a viable option instead of dealing with the disgrace and public persecution. Does anyone see a lawsuit coming out of China for mental stress and undue anxiety due to these recalls? No. More than likely, there will be more employees killing themselves, not too mention serious sanctions brought against the company and employees who are responsible. And people wonder why America is slipping in the international game? More and more American companies are outsourcing for technology and labor since Americans are too expensive. Not too mention they are less efficient. Can we sue our American companies for doing so? Wait a minute, there are people who already have.
So, we live in a country where people are paid NOT to work, and people are handed out millions of dollars in lawsuits for "mental stress and anxiety". IS this what we have to look forward too? Unfortunately, it will only get worse before it gets better.
Maybe I'll sue FoxSports for allowing people to post ridiculing blogs, and allowing people to spam on my blog. The mental anguish and torture that it has put me through is too much to take. But, then again, I could get a life and act like a mature adult, and recongnize that there are a lot of idiots in this world that just don't know any better. I think I'll stick with that option, it actually seems to make some sense.
Last night Barry Bonds hit his MLB baseball record 756th homerun. I'm not going to delve into such topics as whether Barry cheated or not and get into all that hoopla. I'm here to concentrate on the BALL that became # 756.
It was FAR from the last ride that this ball will ever take.
You think the 'Bartman' ball took a wild ride, wait till this one finds it's final destiny. Which will most likely be followed by a price tag with a lot of zeroes behind it.
Congratulations to Mr. Matt Murphy, the real winner in last night's homerun 'derby' ball hit by Barry Bonds.
"I won the lottery," Murphy told The Daily News in a story posted on its Web site Wednesday. "I'm scraped up but nothing serious."
Murphy said the ball was "under lock and key."
"I'm going to be smart about what I do with it," he said. "Funny enough, I'm only keeping 51 percent of what the ball brings."
Murphy said the rest would go to a friend who went with him to the game, wearing an Alex Rod
In yesterday's Preakness Stakes, Big Brown left little doubt as to who was the best horse in the race. Winning by a convincing 5 1/4 lengths, Big Brown breezed home under the guidance of jockey Kent Desormeaux and his single urging hand ride. I'm sure PETA people will be very happy to know that Mr. Desormeaux never used his whip in bringing Big Brown home to victory in one of the more dominating victories in the history of the Preakness Stakes. If urged, it was readily apparent that Big Brown could have ran a faster time if he were challenged. But, in itself, the finishing time of 1:54.80 is very comparable to some of the great 
plete the Triple Crown trifecta. 
Pyro : Even at odds of 5 to 1, many a wiseguy will be on this Asmussen trained colt who is well seasoned, and has proven that he can win at Churchill and run in any assortment of racing styles: on the lead, stalking, or even as a deep closer. Versatility is needed when racing in the Derby. Definite contender.
Tale of Ekati: His win at Aqueduct was more by the default of War Pass than anything else. However, many racing afficianados have been waiting for this Colt to blossom. After his win the Belmont Futurity last year, this Tagg trained Colt has been a bit of a disappointment. His win in the Wood may be just the ticket to unleash this extremely talented colt. 
Colonel John: The West Coast champion(?) has been impressive throughout his 1st 6 races, winning 4, and finishing 2nd twice. The big concern is that he has not been dominating, and West Coast horses have not fared well in the Derby as of late. He will likely need a career effort to hit the board. His odds at anything less than 10 to 1 seem a bit overpriced for me. The only horses he has beaten in this field are Monba and Bob Black Jack. The last, at the wire in the 1st time that colt ran over a mile, much less a mile and an eigth. Not too mention, Georgia Boy, who is not running is likely the best colt out west anyway.
Big Brown: Tough not to like this colt when you compare him to the others. Has been impressive in all 3 of his outings, and romped to a 5 length victory despite the 12 hole post and torrid fractions in the Florida Derby. Bar none, this is the most talented horse in the field, but a horse has never won the Derby with only 3 lifetime starts entering the race. A huge hurdle he will have to overcome.
Z Humor: Hard to see this colt being much of a factor for the win. Finishing 3rd, 4th, and 5th in his last 3 races, Z Humor has proven that he cannot beat a lot of the horses in this field. He will likely need a perfect trip just to hit the board. The only factor on his side is that he is bred to run the distance, thus he should not falter coming down the stretch, and may have something more in the tank than we have seen thus far.
Monba: This colt looked like he was done after a 12th place finish in the Fountain of Youth. Suprisingly he came back to beat 5 of his rivals in this race to capture the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. Those rivals include Pyro, Cool Coal Man, Visionaire, Big Truck, and Cowboy Cal. Pletcher is arguably the best trainer in the world, but Prado leaving this mount has to be a concern. Another note is that the Keeneland victory was slow and also on PolyTrack. 
Adriano: Hasn't really beaten anybody of note, and when he stepped up to stiff competition in the Fountain of Youth, he was simply never a factor. Don't read too much into the Lane's End Stakes win at Turfway, that was a less than stellar field and it was run in an extremely sluggish time. Looks like a career effort is needed just to hit the board. Since he is a stalker, that just doesn't seem very likely to happen. 
Recapturetheglory: The win in the Illinois Derby has to be respected. He took the lead and put many of these away down the stretch while romping to a 4 length victory. That was just the race this colt needed. You will likely get this guy at odds of 20 to 1 or better, and past Derby champions have used a romp in the Illinois Derby as a path to success before. A definite longshot contender that should be on or close to the lead from the start. Breeding says he can go the distance. 
Smooth Air: Has done no worse than 3rd in 7 lifetime starts, and finished a respectable 2nd to Big Brown in the Florida Derby although he was 5 lengths behind. The major question for this guy is the distance. I just can see him going a mile and a quarter, and he won't be on the lead anyway. Tough to like, and will likely be at 50 to 1 odds or more.
Cool Coal Man: Very talented colt who was the winner of the Fountain of Youth Stakes against a very strong field. His falter in the Toyota Blue Grass at Keeneland can be forgiven since it was on PolyTrack. The disturbing news is his 7th place finish the only time he has run at Churchill. His worst performance in his career. If you feel the Fountain of Youth is the true bearing of this colt, then he is a definite contender. Tough horse to gauge, but should be a serious consideration for the win and on any exotic ticket. You will also get some serious odds of 30 to 1 or better. 
Anak Nakal: Another Nick Zito entry that just hasn't shown much in 2008 with finishes of 5th, 7th, and 8th in his last 3 races. But Zito isn't giving up on this Colt just yet. We have been waiting for this colt to fire in 2008, and he has won on this track before. If you are looking for a SERIOUS long shot, this might be your ticket. Likely to go off at more than 50 to 1. Breeding says he will handle the distance. Big question is if he can get into contention coming into the stretch? Highly unlikely that he can improve by 20 lengths, but this horse can close, and does have talent. 
Eight Belles: Ahhhhh...... a filly. We have not had a filly in the Kentucky Derby since Silverbulletday back in 1999. Don't count this lady out, we all learned a lesson in last year's Belmont Stakes when Rags to Riches put the boys away at the mile and a half distance. This filly has already ran 6 career races over a mile in distance and has won her last four. She may run in the Kentucky Oaks on friday, but don't count her out from running against the boys. If she does, she should be very competitive, and could even pull a shocker and win. Larry Jones is a great trainer, and this horse could put some 
Cowboy Cal: Will need to be on the lead to have a shot, and even so, it is highly unlikely he can finish the mile and a quarter distance. His best chance would be to hang on and hit the board, but I doubt he even has the lead. Will need a great post, and a great trip to even be a factor. He will likely turn into a miler sometime this year. 
Behindatthebar: That was a big time close at Keeneland in his last, and in a pretty good time as well. This colt has basically come out of nowhere in the past month, but looks like he can be ready to unload a big one on Saturday. With Pletcher guiding and Flores on the mount, you have to give this horse some serious consideration. He'll be coming late, and if fractions up front are torrid, he should be in the mix. At 25 to 1 or better, another intriguing longshot contender. 
Visionaire: Tough to like. A closer who doesn't like the distance. Has also struggled against many of these before. Wouldn't be surprised if he gets pulled for a different race. 
Big Truck: His win in the Tampa Bay Derby may be about as good as this horse can do. And that won't even put him into the top 10 on Saturday. Hard to see this guy even hitting the board. Look elsewhere. 
Bob Black Jack: I hope this guy gets in. Primarily thought of as a sprinter, this colt ran a strong 2nd to Colonel John in the Santa Anita Derby in his 2nd effort going more than a mile. The World Record Holder at 6 furlongs, this colt could set some torrid fractions and may cause some big problems for Big Brown if he gets caught up with him. This guy could be a huge factor in the pace of this race if he gets in. Other horses such as War Emblam have 'stolen' the Derby in the past by getting to a comfortable lead with generous fractions. His effort in the Santa Anita Derby could have been just the ticket to give this guy the needed stamina to cover the mile and a quarter. If he gets a good post, he could be a serious contender. 
Denis of Cork: The likely odd man out would get some serious wiseguy heat if he gets in. With only 4 lifetime starts, and 3 wins, this horse has some tactical speed that many others don't possess. His victory in the Southwest Stakes in which he closed from 18 lengths back has to be respected. Big problem. He didn't handle the mile and an eighth distance at the Illinois Derby very well, and wasn't much of a factor. He will have to uncork a career best, but may be just primed to do so. One of the best bred horses in the race. 
