What is the official color of summer you ask?  Brown.  As in Big Brown. 

In yesterday's Preakness Stakes, Big Brown left little doubt as to who was the best horse in the race.  Winning by a convincing 5 1/4 lengths, Big Brown breezed home under the guidance of jockey Kent Desormeaux and his single urging hand ride.  I'm sure PETA people will be very happy to know that Mr. Desormeaux never used his whip in bringing Big Brown home to victory in one of the more dominating victories in the history of the Preakness Stakes.  If urged, it was readily apparent that Big Brown could have ran a faster time if he were challenged.  But, in itself, the finishing time of 1:54.80 is very comparable to some of the great horses of lore.  Seatle Slew, Secretariat, and Affirmed all ran the Preakness in 1:54:2/5s.  Spectacular Bid in 1:54:3/5s and the great Sunday Silence in 1:53: 4/5s.  More importantly his winning time is faster than any previous horse since  Real Quiet's  time of 1:54.75 in 1998.   

Now, only the Belmont Stakes is in wait to see if  Big Brown is good enough to capture the elusive Triple Crown.  A title that has evaded  horse racing for the last 30 years.  From the looks of the 1st two legs, it merely looks like the Belmont will be a ceremonial romp for this 3 Year Old Derby and now Preakness Champion.

But..........

There is another horse that maybe you haven't heard of just yet.  A horse by the name of Casino Drive has splashed onto the scene with his recent, and also dominant victory in the Peter Pan Stakes on May 10th at Belmont Park.  Coincidentally the same track the Belmont Stakes will be run on as well. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pictured:  Casino Drive winning the Peter Pan Stakes with Kent Desormeaux on board.

Also noteworthy is that  Kent Desormeaux was the jockey for both of these horses during their recent blow out victories and according to Desormeaux Casino Drive is Big Brown's biggest competition in the Belmont Stakes. 

I don't think I can argue. 

The breeding on Casino Drive is spectacular with the sire being Mineshaft, and the mare being Better Than Honour.  But more importantly, Casino Drive is a sibling of the last two Belmont winners in Jazil and Rags to Riches who were both offspring of Better Than Honour..  By the mere looks of the Peter Pan victory and breeding alone, Casino Drive is the biggest challenger that Big Brown will have faced in his bid for the elusive Triple Crown.  

Another ring to throw into the fire is that Casino Drive does not have American connections.  He was purchased at Keeneland in their September auction in 2006.  From there he was quickly shipped to Japan by his owner Hidetoshi Yamamoto.  Once in Japan, Hidetoshi quickly threw over the reins of Casino Drive to be trained by Kazuo Fujisawa, who is one of the best trainers in Japan, if not the best.  For many years the Japanese have been purchasing horses in America in an effort to build their 'bloodlines' amongst their thoroughbred industry.  They have yet to produce a horse that can compete with the great American or European horses, but it hasn't been due to lack of effort.  Many princes from Saudi Arabia have been doing the same as well.  We have simply been waiting for these 'hot spots' in breeding to start producing some champions of their own as they have been long-standing purchasers of top-end colts in America for quite some time.  Casino Drive looks like the best that they have yet to offer.  And we should fully expect this trend to continue in the years to come. 

Other challengers to Big Brown's Triple Crown pursuit?  Behindatthebar is likely the best colt in America that has yet to test his wares against him.  He is also a deep closer that has ran into some health problems that have kept him out of both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness.  It is very likely that Pletcher will take a run at the Belmont to challenge Big Brown.  Ready's Echo ran a reasonable race in finishing 3rd to Casino Drive in the Peter Pan Stakes.  He was also the only horse left that was actually closing on the eventual winner nearing the finish line.  The extra distance should do him some good.  Icabad Crane ran into some traffic in the Preakness but finished a respectalbe 3rd, while Macho Again was closing somewhat in his 2nd place finish yesterday as well.  And finally, another filly.  Proud Spell is likely the best 3 year old filly in the country.  And yes that includes a now departed Eight Belles.  Her win in the Kentucky Oaks was very impressive on a sloppy track, and she would be fresh if asked to run in the Belmont.  One only has to look back to last year and notice that a filly took the boys down at the vaunted mile and a half distance.  This filly may be as good or better than Rags to Riches.   

Another noteworthy aspect is that Casino Drive will be making only his 3rd start in his career when he takes on Big Brown in the Belmont Stakes.  Noteworthy since his owner and trainer felt he 'bounced' a bit in his win in the Peter Pan Stakes but still ran a 101 Beyer speed figure.  Something that no horse other than ####ego had produced of all the challengers in the Preakness yesterday.  It was Big Brown's 3rd lifetime start that really put him on the radar as the best 3 year old in the country.  His wide sweeping 5 length victory in the Tampa Bay Derby served notice that this was the colt to beat in Kentucky. 

Big Brown has yet to run a bad race.  Casino Drive possibly had his 'supposed' clunker in the Peter Pan, and still ran a very respectable Beyer Speed Figure.  IF Big Brown were to bounce, Casino Drive is likely the 'bouncee'.  The Belmont Stakes has shattered the dreams of 18 other colts who have headed to the Belmont with the elusive Triple Crown in their sites.  Only 11 out of the possible 29 horses who have started the Belmont Stakes have won the race to complete the Triple Crown trifecta. 

The mile and a half distance that the Belmont Stakes is run at is truly the test of a champion.  Especially when any Triple Crown hopeful will be running in this race for the 3rd time in as few as 5 weeks.  Elite horses rarely run more than once a month, and most times around 4 to 8 times during any calendar year.  To run 3 times in 5 weeks is a very daunting task indeed, and is likely the main reason why there have only been 11 horses who have ever accomplished this incredible feat.

Casino Drive will have had 4 weeks rest coming into the Belmont.  Big Brown will be off of 3 weeks rest, in which he ran a previous race 2 weeks before that in the Kentucky Derby.  There will not be another horse in the race with as many races in such a short period of time as Big Brown in the Belmont.  Heck, only 1 trainer felt their horse was fresh or ready enough after the Derby to challenge Big Brown in the Preakness.  And we all saw how badly ####ego faded yesterday.  He will be facing the freshest of challengers, in which many of them will be well-equipped to handle the mile and half distance that the Belmont offers.  Big Brown also has had a history of foot problems.  It severely hampered his 2 year old campaign, and delayed the start to his 3 year old campaign.  In fact, it is such a concern for Dutrow that he wears special shoes to protect his very sensitive hooves/feet.  It would not be at all that shocking if  Big Brown were to be at less than 100% when the gates open for the Belmont.  And fingers crossed, an ailment that would keep from racing at all.

But such is the vaunted trail of the Triple Crown.   

But if we have learned anything in the 1st 2 races of the Triple Crown, Big Brown may not need his best effort to win and he has yet to be pushed to see what he truly has left in the tank.  Past contenders in War Emblem, Funny Cide, Charasmatic and Smarty Jones were all front-runners who had serious questions regarding the mile and a half distance.  They also were 'lumbering' down the stretch in their victories in the Preakness after the mile and a quarter Kentucky Derby test.  You will be hard pressed to find a horse racing afficianodo question Big Brown's distance limitations coming into this year's Belmont. 

The biggest question is likely the competition that Big Brown has ran against.  Without a doubt this is the weakest crop of 3 year olds that I have ever witnessed participate in this years Triple Crown.  There are so few contenders who have ever ran a career Beyer speed figure of 100.  Normally, you would find over half of the contestants in any Triple Crown race with those credentials.  Along with the sporting of multiple wins and respectable times.  We just haven't seen that this year outside of Big Brown.  Most naysayers to Big Brown's spectacular runs in the Derby and Preakness will point to these well-founded arguments.  The competition has been weak.  Nobody can really argue against that.

But when the gates open for the Belmont, Big Brown will be facing at least 1 horse that is better than any he has faced yet in his career.  And likely 3, with Behindatthebar and Kentucky Oaks winner Proud Spell along with Casino Drive.  All the hype surrounding Eight Belles is good, but Proud Spell is widely recognized as the best 3 year old filly this year.  And after Rags to Riches win in last years Belmont, don't put it past her to win it this year. 

The stage is set.  And the question remains.  Is Big Brown that good?  Can he beat a fresher horse in Casino Drive?  Can he beat an EXTREMELY fresh colt in Behindatthebar?  And, maybe best of all.  Can he hold off another filly?  A filly, in Proud Spell, that most think is/was better than Eight Belles?    

 

It may be all that you need to know is "$5,000 to Win on Big Brown" when you walk to the wagering window for the Preakness Stakes on Saturday.  There have been many recent horses that have won the 1st 2 legs of the Triple Crown, only to falter in the testing mile and a half jaunt at the Belmont.   Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, and Charasmatic have all passed the 1st two tests of the Triple Crown journey only to see their hopes dashed by the daunting distance of the Belmont. 

This year, however, seems to be very different.  For the 1st time in my wagering livelihood has a horse seemed to have all the qualities it takes to be a Triple Crown winner.  And Big Brown seems to have all the real pieces to complete this journey.  Front running speed, tactical speed, ability to close, and the ability to avoid traffic.  Whatever pace the Preakness will be run at, Big Brown will very much be in the mix.......... and likely the one who crosses the finish line first.

But............ there is always a but.  With a morning line of 1-2 it will be very difficult for many 'true' horse racing players to wager on such a heavy favorite.  And come race time, one should fully expect that line to drop to somewhere around the ridiculous prices of 2-5 or even 1-5.  One only has to look at this year's Tampa Bay Derby in which 2 year old champion War Pass went off at the incredible odds of 1-20.  In that race War Pass didn't even hit the board.  In fact, he finished DEAD LAST.  You may have heard of the term "Bridge-Jumper", well I'm sure there were a few bridge-jumpers in Tampa on that day.  The payouts on that race were the following:

• Big Truck:   $16.40     $5.80     $25.20
• Atoned                          $6.60     $27.80
• Dynamic Wayne                        $76.20

What this board tells you is if you wagered $2 to Win, Place and Show on Big Truck you would have returned $16.40 for the Win, $5.80 for the Place, and $25.20 for the Show.  Anytime you see a board like this it tells you that the VAST majority of the Show pool was on a single horse.  More importantly, that horse was War Pass, the 1-20 favorite.  A horse racing play in many circles is to make a HUGE wager to Show on a big time favorite.  At the least, and in War Pass's case, it would mean that you would return 5 cents on every dollar wagered if he were to hit the board.  And BIG favorites of odds at 1-1 or less RARELY do not, at the least, hit the board.  There are some legendary stories on horse players who have wagered $100,000 to show on big favorites for long stretches of time.  From recent memory, I believe a player at Santa Anita was 21 for 21 wagering $100,000 to show on horses at odds of 1-1 or less, until his horse did not hit the proverbial board, only to lose all his winnings on one failed favorite.  In the case of the Tampa Bay Derby, it was likely that there was 5 to 10 times more money wagered on the Show pool than the Win pool  (sorry, I'm too lazy to look it up.)  Unheard of really.  In any race you will likely see the Win pool having 3 to 4 times more 'action' than the Place and Show pools combined.  When you see the Show pool with equal, or for that matter, MORE money wagered than the Win or Place pool, you have a big wagering advantage by taking 'lesser' horses for 'safer' plays in the Show pool slot.  I'm sure many a Big Truck wagerer would have rather put $60 to Show, than $20 to Win, Place, and Show on their horse of choice.   

So when you watch Saturday's action, pay particular attention to the Show pool.  The tote board will give you that information, and if you see more money wagered to Show than to Win, you will know exactly what is going on.  Most horse players only bet 'their' horse to Win and Place.  Rarely do they play them in the Show pool because their return on investment is so drastically reduced when 3 horses get a share of that pool. 

Well, so much for the 'wagering' tips.  Time for the race at hand.  In this year's Preakness we have 13 contenders, and here they are with post position and my analysis on each:

   1.  Macho Again:  His last race at 7 1/2 furlongs was impressive, but we are running a Mile and 3/16ths in the Preakness.  Hard to make a case for this horse other than some needed pace to make Big Brown earn his reward.  Much like his sprint champion Sire Macho Uno, Macho Again will likely turn into a sprinter of a mile or less when all is said and done. 

  2.  Tres Borrachos:  Interesting colt that is getting better.  The pedigree of Ecton Park and Forty Niner says he should be able to handle the distance.  His only fault is not having the much needed late end kick to survive against many of these, but you can't forget the giant steps in progress he is making.  Interesting long shot that will likely be near the lead at the mile pole.  Can he hang on? 

  3.  Icabad Crane:  His pedigree out of A.P. Indy screams distance, and he is a closer. He is also improving by leaps and bounds lately.  He won his last in the Federico Tesio Stakes at this same Pimilico track, and his closing style is exactly what you are looking for in a race that has some front end speed in it.  Wouldn't be a shock if he hits the board, but he will have to improve greatly on his Beyers number to truly compete with Big Brown.  An intriguing upset winner from Graham Motion. 

  4.  Yankee Bravo:  He will get some wagering action.  Personally I can't see it.  We have seen in the recent past that  West Coast horses just haven't fared well in Triple Crown races.  See Colonel John in the Derby.  And he is no Colonel John.  A likely pass on any ticket for me.

  5.  Behindatthebar:  Pulled out of the Derby to concentrate on this race.  'Supposedly' the biggest contender to Big Brown.  His biggest problem is the flop of the PolyTrack horses in the Derby.  Nary a one was even in the race.  His biggest factor is that he can close.  From how far back will be the question.  He is training increcibly well, and 'should' be a big factor in this one.  You also have to like Pletcher in his barn.  Tough horse to judge.  Could be a clunker, but he could also come from way back to win.  At the least, he should be included on many exotic tickets just in case.  Maybe even on top. 

  6.  Racecar Rhapsody:  Out of Storm Cat and A.P. Indy.  Incredible breeding on this colt, and he LOVES to close.  Outdone by Behindthebar in his last, I don't think we have seen his best just yet.  He has yet to run a clunker, but hasn't won all that that much either with one win in 6 lifetime starts.  He has never ran further than a mile and an eighth, and his breeding and numbers say he will enjoy the extra distance.  At 30-1 or better, this is a LIVE longshot contender.   

  7.  Big Brown:  The horse to beat.  Nothing more, nothing less.  Tough to make a case AGAINST him right now.  Especially against this field.  Most experts will be surprised if he doesn't win by at least 6 or more lengths.  Does a Triple Crown await?  VERY likely in my humble opinion.

  8.  Kentucky Bear:  His morning line is a bit ominous.  15-1 and he has never ran a Beyer better than 93?  And that was his 1st race?  His works are good, his trainer and jockey are above average.  I just can't see why he is at 15-1.  Sorry.  The 4th favorite?   He was beaten on PolyTrack by  1 1/2 lengths by the 19th place finisher in the Derby.  I'm intrigued by the simple stupidity in this morning line.  He was 28 to 1 in the Bluegrass Stakes, finished 3rd, and is now 15-1 in the Preakness?  I have to be missing something here.  But I REALLY doubt it.

  9.  Stevil:  Nick Zito enterd Cool Coal Man in the Derby.  I gave him some interest.  He now enters a horse in the Preakness who can't beat Kentucky Bear and Yankee Bravo.  He can't close, he can't lead, and he has ZERO tactical speed.  If I can't see Kentucky Bear, I KNOW I can't like this guy.  30-1?  If he goes off at less than 50-1 I'll be shocked.  Worst horse in the race.

  10.  Riley Tucker:  He has hit the board in 6 out of 7 lifetime races.  Problem is he has 1 lone victory.  His 1st race as a Maiden.  Hard to see this guy being much of a factor, and his workouts leading into this race are horrible to say the least.  But his last race was very comparable to many in here, and I wouldn't be shocked if he hits the board.   

  11.  Giant Moon:  I like this horse.  Out of Giant's Causeway and Storm Cat, distance should not be a problem.  A stalker, that will be at or near the pace throughout, and just dropped a bomb of a workout coming into Pimlico.  He will likely go off at 30-1 or better, and looks to be the best 'betting' price in the race.  DEFINITE longshot contender.  The biggest concern will be if he runs into traffic in the 11 hole since he needs to be near the lead.  But I feel comfortable with Dominguez as the jockey to make that happen.

  12.  ####ego:  I liked him in the Derby, until he came out of the 19 hole next to Big Brown.  Miserable race, but Mike Smith (jockey) saved him for a better day.   This is my biggest concern for Giant Moon as ####ego also needs to be near the lead to be a factor.  One of these two simply won't be a factor.  The 'supposed' biggest challenger to Big Brown has a horrible post to overcome, and another stalker to surpass from the get go.  He either finishes 1st or 2nd, or isn't even a factor.  If you are looking for a payday, keep this guy out at 8-1.  Although I doubt he even gets any 'wise' guy action with this post.  I surmise he will end up at 11-1 or better.  Bet him to Win, or don't bet him at all.    

  13.  Hey Byrn:  Big Brown only beat him by 15 3/4's lengths in the Florida Derby.  BUT.......Hey Byrn conveniently went out and won the Holy Bull, which remarkably is ran at the same mile and 3/16ths distance as the Preakness?  Hmmmmm.......... you say?  Not really.  This is another ring into the fire of the outiside post in this one.  HE ALSO has to get at or near the lead to be a factor.  Sound familiar?  His biggest problem?  He has no early 'foot' as they say.  What that means is he doesn't exactly fire out of the gate.  He will get some heat by 'wise' guys.  He will likely drop from 20-1 to 14 or 15 to 1.  Don't buy into it.  He will not be a factor. 

In the end.........?  I could give you 50 ways to wager on this thing, but it will likely be Big Brown to romp to another 5 or better length victory.  The rest just don't stack up.  The BET?  Fire a Superfecta with (7) Big Brown on top of the (3) Icabad Crane, (5)Behindatthebar, (6) Racecar Rhapsody, and (11) Giant Moon.  Be sure to 'Key' (7) Big Brown on top. 

Happy wagering all!!   If you are looking for any other wagering tips drop me a line here at foxsports.

 

 

 

Well, I just had one of the greatest weekends in my life. 

I attended this year's 134th running of the Kentucky Derby, and what a treat it was.  The fans and hospitality were great, and the scenery was simply breathtaking.  Never in my life have I seen so many beautiful 30 and 40 something year old women dressed to the nines and bombed out of their skulls on Mint Juleps.  Three seats down from me was an absolute knockout 42 year old woman who was passed out by the 4th race.  When her husband went to get another cocktail and wager on the 5th, she was left on the bleachers to lay down her weary head.  Keep in mind it was a VERY windy day in Louisville.  Every Tom, ####, and Harry in section 222 could tell you the number of polka dots on her backside by the time Hubby came back from the cocktail bar.  (By the way it was 132........or at least that is what my buddy told me.  He also indicated that the curtains and the carpet were a match.  Whatever the hell that means.)

Anyway, I got to thinking (which probably isn't a good thing since I only have about 4 brain cells left after that 3 day bender).  I got to thinking about some oddities that we have in our little world of sports.  I'll list some of the oddities, go ahead and add some of your own.

• Why is it when I order a Grand Slam at Denny's at 3:00 in the morning it really isn't a good thing.  But when my favorite player on my baseball team hits a Grand Slam I'm elated and actually still feel good about it 3 hours after it happens without having to pop 14 Rolaids.
• Who ever came up with the shape of a football?  Essentially it is a small basketball with two Madonna 'pointies' on each end.
• Why is kicking a Madonna basketball between two uprights in football called a Field Goal?  Shouldn't it be called an Air Goal?
• Why does a Fullback line up in front of a Halfback?  Or is the whole Quarterback, Halfback, Fullback thing about a preferential weighting system?
• Why do they call it the Bowl Championship Series when each team only plays 1 game?  Doesn't the word 'series' indicate that there is more than 1 'round' much less 1 game?
• Why does the NBA Playoffs take longer to complete than the gestation period of an elephant?
• How do we know that a 'batter' is a threat simply by the way he stands at the plate?
• Why is PETA outraged with Horse Racing?  Should they not be outraged with Boxing or MMA?  Or do #### sapiens rank lower on their scale in the 'animal' world?
• Why do all the great QB's lick their 3 predominant fingers on their throwing hand while exiting the huddle and heading towards the line of scrimmage?
• If a Center in football has an infatuation with Chicken Wings and Burritos, does it have an impact on his relationship with his Quarterback?
• Why is the 40 yard dash considered the 'it' factor when determing speed in football?  Wouldn't a 10 or 20 yard dash make more sense?
• Does anyone other than an MIT graduate truly understand the QB rating system?  Also, they tinker with the BCS formula every year, shouldn't they tinker with this rating system as well?
• Why is it that you either like Kobe or LeBron?  And on the flip side why do we have to 'hate' the other guy?  Can't we just enjoy the incredible talents of both?
• Why do we always root for the underdog?
• Why do negative stories about our beloved sports heroes grab headlines way before all the positive stories that our sports heroes perform?  We can all weave a tale about Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens sordid problems, but yet we have a hard time grasping the great things that many of our 'heroes' do through charities and time spent with our youth?  Do we expect them to be 'better' than us?  Or are we simply jealous?
• And lastly, why do we blog?  Much less blog about sports? 

On a lighter note, yours truly was a pony away from a $30K Superfecta in the Kentucky Derby.  I had Recapturetheglory in the 4 hole instead of Tale of Ekati.  Recapture finished 5th while Tale finished 4th.  A simple movement of Recapture into the 4 hole would have made a great weekend all that much better.  Such is the life of a degenerate horse racing gambler.

Next up.............. The Preakness.  Enjoy your weekend all, and a very Happy Mother's Day to all the beautiful fillies in our blogosphere. 

 

The annual Run for the Roses is upon us, and is only a mere 6 days away.  The 134th running of the Kentucky Derby is scheduled to be run on May 3rd @ 5:00 EDT, and yours truly is going to be there.

You can have your Super Bowl, your World Series, even your NBA Finals.  Me?  I'll take the Kentucky Derby as my favorite sporting event, and won't even bat an eye.  Regardless of what happens, the Derby always delivers.  As they say, the "Most Exciting 2 Minutes in All of Sports".   

Coming into 2008, the Derby favorite was the undefeated War Pass.  And why not.  His dominating performance in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile announced him as such.  He simply parked a field by 4 and 3/4's lengths that was supposed to be the best 2 year olds in the world.  Pyro was his only challenger, and that wasn't even close.  The 3rd place horse, Kodiak Kowboy was a mere 16 3/4's lengths behind War Pass. 

Then in his 2nd start in 2008, War Pass ran into some trouble in the Tampa Bay Derby on March 15th.  For the 1st time in his career, War Pass was not on the lead.  For the 1st time in his career, War Pass was going to have to pass someone to win.  What happened next pretty much shocked the horse racing world.  Not only did War Pass not pass ANYBODY, but he retreated and finished dead last against a pretty weak field of contestants.  He simply was never a factor.  He was then shipped to Aqueduct to compete in the Wood Memorial.  He had a ton of questions to answer.  Although he ran a gutty race, he still finished second to a 'closing' Tale of Ekati.  I use the term closing very generously.  Tale of Ekati simply passed him by default as War Pass was seriously faltering coming down the stretch.  Now War Pass has incurred an injury, and will not even compete in the Kentucky Derby.

So who is in this year's field?

Mike Watchmaker will likely make the undefeated Big Brown as the pre-race favorite.  Colonel John and Pyro will also see heavy wagering action as well in what looks to be one of the weakest Kentucky Derby fields in quite some time.  The probable favorite, Big Brown, has only run 3 career races, including only 1 race in which he has run longer than a mile.  That is very disturbing in the fact that every horse in this years field will be running a Mile and a quarter race for the very first time in their lives.  Stamina is one of the key factors in determining a Derby winner.  The first question any bettor of the Derby has to ask themselves is whether their selected horse can run a mile and a quarter.  This simple question often eliminates over half of the field. 

The list of entrants has not been finalized, but here are the likely candidates.  I have 21 horses listed, but only 20 will get in. 

  Pyro :  Even at odds of 5 to 1, many a wiseguy will be on this Asmussen trained colt who is well seasoned, and has proven that he can win at Churchill and run in any assortment of racing styles:  on the lead, stalking, or even as a deep closer.  Versatility is needed when racing in the Derby.  Definite contender.

  Tale of Ekati:  His win at Aqueduct was more by the default of War Pass than anything else.  However, many racing afficianados have been waiting for this Colt to blossom.  After his win the Belmont Futurity last year, this Tagg trained Colt has been a bit of a disappointment.  His win in the Wood may be just the ticket to unleash this extremely talented colt. 

  Colonel John:  The West Coast champion(?) has been impressive throughout his 1st 6 races, winning 4, and finishing 2nd twice.  The big concern is that he has not been dominating, and West Coast horses have not fared well in the Derby as of late.  He will likely need a career effort to hit the board.  His odds at anything less than 10 to 1 seem a bit overpriced for me.  The only horses he has beaten in this field are Monba and Bob Black Jack.  The last, at the wire in the 1st time that colt ran over a mile, much less a mile and an eigth.  Not too mention, Georgia Boy, who is not running is likely the best colt out west anyway.

  ####ego:  5 lifetime starts, 3 wins and 2 seconds.  This horse held tough down the stretch in his last in the Arkansas Derby.  He is improving every race, and may be primed to pop a big one on Saturday.  The big question for ####ego is his pedigree.  He is simply not geared to run a mile and a quarter. 

  Big Brown:  Tough not to like this colt when you compare him to the others.  Has been impressive in all 3 of his outings, and romped to a 5 length victory despite the 12 hole post and torrid fractions in the Florida Derby.  Bar none, this is the most talented horse in the field, but a horse has never won the Derby with only 3 lifetime starts entering the race.  A huge hurdle he will have to overcome.

  Z Humor:  Hard to see this colt being much of a factor for the win.  Finishing 3rd, 4th, and 5th in his last 3 races, Z Humor has proven that he cannot beat a lot of the horses in this field.  He will likely need a perfect trip just to hit the board.  The only factor on his side is that he is bred to run the distance, thus he should not falter coming down the stretch, and may have something more in the tank than we have seen thus far.

  Monba:  This colt looked like he was done after a 12th place finish in the Fountain of Youth.  Suprisingly he came back to beat 5 of his rivals in this race to capture the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes.  Those rivals include Pyro, Cool Coal Man, Visionaire, Big Truck, and Cowboy Cal.  Pletcher is arguably the best trainer in the world, but Prado leaving this mount has to be a concern.  Another note is that the Keeneland victory was slow and also on PolyTrack.    

  Court Vision:  If you are looking for a deep closer this is your horse.  This colt has also had problems in his last two, but still managed to hit the board.   He had a sizzling work on the 17th, and has won on this track before.  Gomez has won the Derby before in the irons, and Mott is one of the most well-respected trainers in the country.  He will likely go off at odds of 15 to 1 or better.  Very intriguing, and has the pedigree to go the distance.  

  Z Fortune:  Tough horse to gauge.  Has not won in his last 3 starts, and even when running against much lesser competition.  Did run a strong race for a 2nd to Pyro in the Risen Star and 2nd to ####ego in the Arkansas Derby.  Asmussen is a great trainer, but this guy just seems to be a notch or two below many in this race. 

  Adriano:  Hasn't really beaten anybody of note, and when he stepped up to stiff competition in the Fountain of Youth, he was simply never a factor.  Don't read too much into the Lane's End Stakes win at Turfway, that was a less than stellar field and it was run in an extremely sluggish time.  Looks like a career effort is needed just to hit the board.  Since he is a stalker, that just doesn't seem very likely to happen.       

  Recapturetheglory:  The win in the Illinois Derby has to be respected.  He took the lead and put many of these away down the stretch while romping to a 4 length victory.  That was just the race this colt needed.  You will likely get this guy at odds of 20 to 1 or better, and past Derby champions have used a romp in the Illinois Derby as a path to success before.  A definite longshot contender that should be on or close to the lead from the start.  Breeding says he can go the distance. 

  Smooth Air:  Has done no worse than 3rd in 7 lifetime starts, and finished a respectable 2nd to Big Brown in the Florida Derby although he was 5 lengths behind.  The major question for this guy is the distance.  I just can see him going a mile and a quarter, and he won't be on the lead anyway.  Tough to like, and will likely be at 50 to 1 odds or more.

  Cool Coal Man:  Very talented colt who was the winner of the Fountain of Youth Stakes against a very strong field.  His falter in the Toyota Blue Grass at Keeneland can be forgiven since it was on PolyTrack.  The disturbing news is his 7th place finish the only time he has run at Churchill.  His worst performance in his career.  If you feel the Fountain of Youth is the true bearing of this colt, then he is a definite contender.  Tough horse to gauge, but should be a serious consideration for the win and on any exotic ticket.  You will also get some serious odds of 30 to 1 or better. 

  Anak Nakal:  Another Nick Zito entry that just hasn't shown much in 2008 with finishes of 5th, 7th, and 8th in his last 3 races.  But Zito isn't giving up on this Colt just yet.  We have been waiting for this colt to fire in 2008, and he has won on this track before.  If you are looking for a SERIOUS long shot, this might be your ticket.  Likely to go off at more than 50 to 1.  Breeding says he will handle the distance.  Big question is if he can get into contention coming into the stretch?  Highly unlikely that he can improve by 20 lengths, but this horse can close, and does have talent.    

  Eight Belles:  Ahhhhh...... a filly.  We have not had a filly in the Kentucky Derby since Silverbulletday back in 1999.  Don't count this lady out, we all learned a lesson in last year's Belmont Stakes when Rags to Riches put the boys away at the mile and a half distance.  This filly has already ran 6 career races over a mile in distance and has won her last four.  She may run in the Kentucky Oaks on friday, but don't count her out from running against the boys.  If she does, she should be very competitive, and could even pull a shocker and win.  Larry Jones is a great trainer, and this horse could put some ####e into this race.  Consider her at the least in any exotic wagers.   

  Cowboy Cal:  Will need to be on the lead to have a shot, and even so, it is highly unlikely he can finish the mile and a quarter distance.  His best chance would be to hang on and hit the board, but I doubt he even has the lead.  Will need a great post, and a great trip to even be a factor.  He will likely turn into a miler sometime this year. 

  Behindatthebar:  That was a big time close at Keeneland in his last, and in a pretty good time as well.  This colt has basically come out of nowhere in the past month, but looks like he can be ready to unload a big one on Saturday.  With Pletcher guiding and Flores on the mount, you have to give this horse some serious consideration.  He'll be coming late, and if fractions up front are torrid, he should be in the mix.  At 25 to 1 or better, another intriguing longshot contender.  

  Visionaire:  Tough to like.  A closer who doesn't like the distance.  Has also struggled against many of these before.  Wouldn't be surprised if he gets pulled for a different race. 

  Big Truck: His win in the Tampa Bay Derby may be about as good as this horse can do.  And that won't even put him into the top 10 on Saturday.  Hard to see this guy even hitting the board.  Look elsewhere.  

  Bob Black Jack:  I hope this guy gets in.  Primarily thought of as a sprinter, this colt ran a strong 2nd to Colonel John in the Santa Anita Derby in his 2nd effort going more than a mile.  The World Record Holder at 6 furlongs, this colt could set some torrid fractions and may cause some big problems for Big Brown if he gets caught up with him.  This guy could be a huge factor in the pace of this race if he gets in.  Other horses such as War Emblam have 'stolen' the Derby in the past by getting to a comfortable lead with generous fractions.  His effort in the Santa Anita Derby could have been just the ticket to give this guy the needed stamina to cover the mile and a quarter.  If he gets a good post, he could be a serious contender.    

  Denis of Cork:  The likely odd man out would get some serious wiseguy heat if he gets in.  With only 4 lifetime starts, and 3 wins, this horse has some tactical speed that many others don't possess.  His victory in the Southwest Stakes in which he closed from 18 lengths back has to be respected.  Big problem.  He didn't handle the mile and an eighth distance at the Illinois Derby very well, and wasn't much of a factor.  He will have to uncork a career best, but may be just primed to do so.  One of the best bred horses in the race.  

Well, that is the probable entrants for Saturday.  I'll be at the race firing back a Mint Julep or two, and likely wagering way too much money.  I haven't found my winner yet, but will likely post sometime later this week.

Happy wagering all, and best of luck.

WAGERING NOTE:  One of the key factors often used in picking a Derby winner is that 18 of the last 20 winners have posted a 104 Beyer or better prior to running in the Derby.  If you look at this years field that limits it to 3 contestants.  Bob Black Jack (109), Big Brown (106), and Pyro (105).  Others that were close are ####ego (103), Z Fortune (102), and Recapturetheglory (102).  Only 1 other horse has cracked a 100, and that is Eight Belles with a 100 Beyer. 

horse capsules, logos courtesy of:  http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2008/conten
ders

odds courtesy of:  http://www.horseswild.com/kentucky-derby
/kentucky-derby-2007-odds.php

Ahhh!!!  The first weekend in May.  The smell of freshly mown grass, and flowers in bloom.  The culmination of spring is finally here.  So what does that mean?  Why the Kentucky Derby of course.

The 133rd running of horse racing's most prestigious race will be run this Saturday, May 5th, 2007.  (Same day as Cinco de Mayo?)  For all horse racing enthusiasts this is THE race.  The penultimate of ultimates.  The numero uno (Macho Uno?), number one.  I do dearly love the Breeder's Cup, but to pack in the excitement of one race, it has to be The Kentucky Derby.

Many of you may remember the victory of the late Barbaro in last years running of the Kentucky Derby.  One of the most dominating performances in recent history.  Sadly his story ended in the Belmont Stakes a short 5 weeks later.  A devastating leg injury cost Barbaro his chance at a Triple Crown, and later proved to be so costly that it took his life as well.

My memories of the Kentucky Derby are that of Charasmatic roaring down the back stretch at 31-1 odds, and me, holding a $20 Win-Place-Show ticket.  I also held an exacta ticket that paid $1200 as well.  Nothing better than your 'shot' rolling home in the biggest race of them all.  A few short years thereafter, a horse called Funny Cide came roaring home at odds of 13-1.  I finished out his victory with the exacta, trifecta, and superfecta as well.  A feat that I would compare to hitting for the cycle in baseball.  My favorite day of all-time at the races.  Then a few years later a $5 Win-Place-Show ticket on Giacomo as he came rolling home at odds of 50-1.  One of the biggest upsets in Derby history.

As you can see, The Kentucky Derby has been very good to me, and holds a place very dear in my heart.  I have always had a fondness for horses, and believe they are the most beautiful animals on the planet.  (Except for women of course.).  To me there is nothing better than hearing the hooves of 20 horses rumbling down the front stretch at Churchill Downs at the start of The Kentucky Derby.  Brings chills up and down my spine.  I'm sure this is a similar feeling that serious NASCAR fans get at the start of the Daytona 500.

This year looks to be a wide open affair, much like last year when the favorite went off at odds of 9/2.  I expect much the same this year.  Street Sense or Curlin look to be the logical favorites, but I can't see either of them going off at odds much below 7/2.  However, the public likes a winner, and they have a tendency to bet down the favorite in The Kentucky Derby.  Just a quick bit of advice, the favorite has only won The Kentucky Derby twice in the past 27 years.  Even the great Barbaro went off at odds of 6 to 1 last year. 

So as you may be celebrating Cinco de Mayo by pounding down Dos Equis or Corona's, I'll be at my local simulcasting tossing back a few Mint Juleps cheering on my hores(s) in the greatest event that occurs every year on the 1st weekend in May.  The Kentucky Derby.  As the NTRA would say, GO BABY GO!

Later on this week I will break down the race I see it, and give out my wagering tips.  Happy wagering all.  I'll leave you with Funny Cide crossing the finish line back in 2003.