The stage is set.  The contenders have put their hats into the proverbial ring, and Big Brown is on the brink of being only the 12th contender in horse racing history to capture the elusive Triple Crown.

For us horse racing officiandos, it doesn't get much better than this.

I'm sure you are all aware of the Big Brown story.  Lightly raced, dominant in all his victories, and an extremely confident trainer and jockey in his stable. 

What you may not know is the incredible amount of history that is leaning AGAINST Big Brown to actually accomplish this amazing feat.  What is the history going against him you ask?

Well here it is:

• First off, there have been 134 Preakness Stakes, 135 Kentucky Derby's, and soon to be on Saturday, 140 Belmont Stakes ever raced.
• That means, collectively, there could have only been 134 times a horse could have won a Triple Crown. 
• Only 29, and now 30, have ever had the chance in the final leg to complete the Triple Crown Trifecta.  Only 11 have been successful thus far.
• Of the 18 who have failed before Big Brown, there are some huge names in horse racing lore:  Burgoo King, Tim Tam, Northern Dancer, Majestic Prince, Spectacular Bid, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, and Real Quiet.  The most spectacular............. is likely.............. Spectacular Bid as he finished his racing career with 30 races in which he won 26, finished 2nd twice, and 3rd once. 
•  Rick Dutrow Jr., BIg Brown's trainer, had never won a Triple Crown race until this year. 
• Kent Desormeaux, the jockey, has won the Kentucky Derby 3 times, the Preakness twice, and the Belmont ZERO times.
• Oddly enough, in 1998, Kent Desormeaux was the jockey of the great horse Real Quiet.  Real Quiet was on the verge of winning the elusive Triple Crown, to only get beat by a NOSE in the Belmont Stakes by Victory Gallop.  The closest that horse has truly came to winning the elusive Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978.

So if Big Brown is to achieve this amazing feat, he has some definite historical trends going against him on Saturday.  May we all root that he achieves this great task. 

But......there is always a but.  I'll be wagering AGAINST him from doing just that.

 

 

 

 

1.  Big Brown (2-5):  The chalk, the favorite, everything you can say.  BUT..... is he ready for greatness?

2.  Guadacanal (50-1):  Has yet to break his maiden?  And he just came off of a career best Beyer of 82?  He is the only horse in the race to have ran a mile and half, but that was on turf and he obviously didn't win anyway.  Has ran 5 times in his lifetime, finished 2nd  twice, and third once.  He was beaten by Tizzy.  You know who Tizzy is?  Should be 100-1 or better come post time.

3.  Macho Again (20-1):  Believe it or not, this horse was actually 'closing' on Big Brown in the Preakness.  His 2nd place finish is respectable, but he was still beaten badly  by 5 1/2 lengths by the big time favorite.  The addition of Casino Drive makes him somewhat playable. 

4.  Denis of Cork (12-1):  Another closer, in a closer rich race.  The addition of Da' Tara could be his best friend in keeping an honest pace up front.    This extremely well bred and talented horse could stew the pot if the first half mile is ran at  :47 or so.    Bet to win, or don't bet at all. 

5.  Casino Drive: (7-2):  The supposed biggest contender to Big Brown has only ran two races coming into the Belmont.  He is also a half sibling to the past two winners of the Belmont in Jazil and Rags to Riches.  The win in the Peter Pan Stakes was nice, but it was against even weaker opponents than Big Brown has faced, and his win was not nearly as dominant.  On the flip side, he has 'freak' talk much like Curlin of last year.  Has to be heavily considered on any ticket.

6.  Da' Tara: (30-1):  Looks like this will be the early pace of the race.  Big Brown beat this guy by 23 plus lengths in the Florida Derby, as he didn't fire.  His last 2 races however showed huge improvement, and we should fully expect this horse to fire to the front and press the pace.  Problem is, Big Brown and company should not be scared of this entrant in the least.  At a mile and a half, this simply looks to be the rabbit, and if he can last on top farther than a mile and some change, it could possibly 'start' to make it very interesting.   

7.  Tale of Ekati: (16-1):  The horse that everyone has been waiting to fire a big one is still maintaining his connections with that same hope.   Finished 4th in the Derby, but he was WAY back.  Hasn't raced since.  Thus he should be fresh, and from reports from the barn and alike, this horse should be as ready as ever to challenge.  Problem is, do you really think he can improve by 11 lenghts in which he faded in the Derby anyway?  Tough to like.

8.  Anak Nakal: (33-1): Another talented horse, much like Tale of Ekati, that people are waiting for to burst upon the scene.  After winning his maiden at 17 to 1, this guy has ran in nothing but graded stakes races.  Nick Zito in his barn is a plus, and for him to take another chance with him is appealing since he trained the 36-1 shot Birdstone to victory over Smarty Jones a few years ago.  Biggest problem?  He isn't training all that well, and he runs very evenly in the end.  Tough to make a play on him other than the connections.  Put in the bottom end of exotics only. 

9.  Ready's Echo: (40-1):  Here is your shot.  Much like Macho Again was closing on Big Brown in The Preakness, this guy was making a HUGE move on Casino in the Peter Pan.  He finished a distant 6 and 1/4 lengths behind Casino in that one, but he looked to have the best stride of late in that one as well.  His Beyers are improving in every race and Todd Pletcher in the barn is very intriguing.  This IS your longshot contender. 

10.  Icabad Crane: (35-1):  Another deep closer in a field of deep closers.  The biggest disclaimer was that after he took over 2nd in the Preakness he faltered down the stretch to finish 3rd behind Macho Again.   He is improving every race, and his falter down the stretch of the Preakness may just be the seasoning that this lightly raced colt needed.  At 35-1, he is your other bomb to throw on top, or for Exacta greatness.

In the end, this is how I see it:

In the 1st half mile we see an evenly paced field with Da'Tara out to a 3 or 4 length lead.  he will run a :47 and some change as he will try to steal the race on top.  Nearing 6 furlongs, we should expect Casino and/or Big Brown start to reel in Da'Tara.  If the pace is at 1:12 or faster, be scared if you are a Big Brown fan.  However, I see it at 1:12:2 to 1:13:4.  And if it is 1:13 or better it will simply be a 2 horse race with Big Brown and Casino Drive.  But what my gut tells me is that Desormeaux has ridden Casino and Big Brown before, and he will 'press' Big Brown for the 1st time in his career this early before a finish line.  He has huge respect for Casino.  In his mind I truly believe that if he can put Casino away the race is over.  Such is the expectation.  At the mile pole with Big Brown putting Casino away, look for Ready's Echo, Icabad Crane, and Denis of Cork start to make their move.  If Big Brown crosses the mile pole at a time of 1:35 to 1:36, he is likely in trouble.  I figure it to be around 1:36 due to the Casino influence.  Then we will see what he has. And it is THEN the racing begins.  The stretch at The Belmont is long and grueling.  Smarty Jones came into that same stretch a few years ago 3 lengths ahead, and the crowd cheering, only to get lapped by a late charging Birdstone.   Look for either Ready's Echo or Denis of Cork to make a serious run at Big Brown late, and maybe even both.   And at the finish line we have..........

Denis of Cork, followed by Big Brown, followed by Ready's Echo.  If you are looking for the Superfecta, throw in Icabad Crane or Tale of Ekati in the 4 spot. 

Then again, Casino Drive will actually put them all away.  And unfortunately stave off yet another Triple Crown contender.  Just slide in Casino for Big Brown, and then substitute Casino finishing the task at hand.  Big Brown will finish a disappointing 4th behind, Casino, Denis, and Ready's. 

Man.  I hope I'm wrong

What is the official color of summer you ask?  Brown.  As in Big Brown. 

In yesterday's Preakness Stakes, Big Brown left little doubt as to who was the best horse in the race.  Winning by a convincing 5 1/4 lengths, Big Brown breezed home under the guidance of jockey Kent Desormeaux and his single urging hand ride.  I'm sure PETA people will be very happy to know that Mr. Desormeaux never used his whip in bringing Big Brown home to victory in one of the more dominating victories in the history of the Preakness Stakes.  If urged, it was readily apparent that Big Brown could have ran a faster time if he were challenged.  But, in itself, the finishing time of 1:54.80 is very comparable to some of the great horses of lore.  Seatle Slew, Secretariat, and Affirmed all ran the Preakness in 1:54:2/5s.  Spectacular Bid in 1:54:3/5s and the great Sunday Silence in 1:53: 4/5s.  More importantly his winning time is faster than any previous horse since  Real Quiet's  time of 1:54.75 in 1998.   

Now, only the Belmont Stakes is in wait to see if  Big Brown is good enough to capture the elusive Triple Crown.  A title that has evaded  horse racing for the last 30 years.  From the looks of the 1st two legs, it merely looks like the Belmont will be a ceremonial romp for this 3 Year Old Derby and now Preakness Champion.

But..........

There is another horse that maybe you haven't heard of just yet.  A horse by the name of Casino Drive has splashed onto the scene with his recent, and also dominant victory in the Peter Pan Stakes on May 10th at Belmont Park.  Coincidentally the same track the Belmont Stakes will be run on as well. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pictured:  Casino Drive winning the Peter Pan Stakes with Kent Desormeaux on board.

Also noteworthy is that  Kent Desormeaux was the jockey for both of these horses during their recent blow out victories and according to Desormeaux Casino Drive is Big Brown's biggest competition in the Belmont Stakes. 

I don't think I can argue. 

The breeding on Casino Drive is spectacular with the sire being Mineshaft, and the mare being Better Than Honour.  But more importantly, Casino Drive is a sibling of the last two Belmont winners in Jazil and Rags to Riches who were both offspring of Better Than Honour..  By the mere looks of the Peter Pan victory and breeding alone, Casino Drive is the biggest challenger that Big Brown will have faced in his bid for the elusive Triple Crown.  

Another ring to throw into the fire is that Casino Drive does not have American connections.  He was purchased at Keeneland in their September auction in 2006.  From there he was quickly shipped to Japan by his owner Hidetoshi Yamamoto.  Once in Japan, Hidetoshi quickly threw over the reins of Casino Drive to be trained by Kazuo Fujisawa, who is one of the best trainers in Japan, if not the best.  For many years the Japanese have been purchasing horses in America in an effort to build their 'bloodlines' amongst their thoroughbred industry.  They have yet to produce a horse that can compete with the great American or European horses, but it hasn't been due to lack of effort.  Many princes from Saudi Arabia have been doing the same as well.  We have simply been waiting for these 'hot spots' in breeding to start producing some champions of their own as they have been long-standing purchasers of top-end colts in America for quite some time.  Casino Drive looks like the best that they have yet to offer.  And we should fully expect this trend to continue in the years to come. 

Other challengers to Big Brown's Triple Crown pursuit?  Behindatthebar is likely the best colt in America that has yet to test his wares against him.  He is also a deep closer that has ran into some health problems that have kept him out of both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness.  It is very likely that Pletcher will take a run at the Belmont to challenge Big Brown.  Ready's Echo ran a reasonable race in finishing 3rd to Casino Drive in the Peter Pan Stakes.  He was also the only horse left that was actually closing on the eventual winner nearing the finish line.  The extra distance should do him some good.  Icabad Crane ran into some traffic in the Preakness but finished a respectalbe 3rd, while Macho Again was closing somewhat in his 2nd place finish yesterday as well.  And finally, another filly.  Proud Spell is likely the best 3 year old filly in the country.  And yes that includes a now departed Eight Belles.  Her win in the Kentucky Oaks was very impressive on a sloppy track, and she would be fresh if asked to run in the Belmont.  One only has to look back to last year and notice that a filly took the boys down at the vaunted mile and a half distance.  This filly may be as good or better than Rags to Riches.   

Another noteworthy aspect is that Casino Drive will be making only his 3rd start in his career when he takes on Big Brown in the Belmont Stakes.  Noteworthy since his owner and trainer felt he 'bounced' a bit in his win in the Peter Pan Stakes but still ran a 101 Beyer speed figure.  Something that no horse other than ####ego had produced of all the challengers in the Preakness yesterday.  It was Big Brown's 3rd lifetime start that really put him on the radar as the best 3 year old in the country.  His wide sweeping 5 length victory in the Tampa Bay Derby served notice that this was the colt to beat in Kentucky. 

Big Brown has yet to run a bad race.  Casino Drive possibly had his 'supposed' clunker in the Peter Pan, and still ran a very respectable Beyer Speed Figure.  IF Big Brown were to bounce, Casino Drive is likely the 'bouncee'.  The Belmont Stakes has shattered the dreams of 18 other colts who have headed to the Belmont with the elusive Triple Crown in their sites.  Only 11 out of the possible 29 horses who have started the Belmont Stakes have won the race to complete the Triple Crown trifecta. 

The mile and a half distance that the Belmont Stakes is run at is truly the test of a champion.  Especially when any Triple Crown hopeful will be running in this race for the 3rd time in as few as 5 weeks.  Elite horses rarely run more than once a month, and most times around 4 to 8 times during any calendar year.  To run 3 times in 5 weeks is a very daunting task indeed, and is likely the main reason why there have only been 11 horses who have ever accomplished this incredible feat.

Casino Drive will have had 4 weeks rest coming into the Belmont.  Big Brown will be off of 3 weeks rest, in which he ran a previous race 2 weeks before that in the Kentucky Derby.  There will not be another horse in the race with as many races in such a short period of time as Big Brown in the Belmont.  Heck, only 1 trainer felt their horse was fresh or ready enough after the Derby to challenge Big Brown in the Preakness.  And we all saw how badly ####ego faded yesterday.  He will be facing the freshest of challengers, in which many of them will be well-equipped to handle the mile and half distance that the Belmont offers.  Big Brown also has had a history of foot problems.  It severely hampered his 2 year old campaign, and delayed the start to his 3 year old campaign.  In fact, it is such a concern for Dutrow that he wears special shoes to protect his very sensitive hooves/feet.  It would not be at all that shocking if  Big Brown were to be at less than 100% when the gates open for the Belmont.  And fingers crossed, an ailment that would keep from racing at all.

But such is the vaunted trail of the Triple Crown.   

But if we have learned anything in the 1st 2 races of the Triple Crown, Big Brown may not need his best effort to win and he has yet to be pushed to see what he truly has left in the tank.  Past contenders in War Emblem, Funny Cide, Charasmatic and Smarty Jones were all front-runners who had serious questions regarding the mile and a half distance.  They also were 'lumbering' down the stretch in their victories in the Preakness after the mile and a quarter Kentucky Derby test.  You will be hard pressed to find a horse racing afficianodo question Big Brown's distance limitations coming into this year's Belmont. 

The biggest question is likely the competition that Big Brown has ran against.  Without a doubt this is the weakest crop of 3 year olds that I have ever witnessed participate in this years Triple Crown.  There are so few contenders who have ever ran a career Beyer speed figure of 100.  Normally, you would find over half of the contestants in any Triple Crown race with those credentials.  Along with the sporting of multiple wins and respectable times.  We just haven't seen that this year outside of Big Brown.  Most naysayers to Big Brown's spectacular runs in the Derby and Preakness will point to these well-founded arguments.  The competition has been weak.  Nobody can really argue against that.

But when the gates open for the Belmont, Big Brown will be facing at least 1 horse that is better than any he has faced yet in his career.  And likely 3, with Behindatthebar and Kentucky Oaks winner Proud Spell along with Casino Drive.  All the hype surrounding Eight Belles is good, but Proud Spell is widely recognized as the best 3 year old filly this year.  And after Rags to Riches win in last years Belmont, don't put it past her to win it this year. 

The stage is set.  And the question remains.  Is Big Brown that good?  Can he beat a fresher horse in Casino Drive?  Can he beat an EXTREMELY fresh colt in Behindatthebar?  And, maybe best of all.  Can he hold off another filly?  A filly, in Proud Spell, that most think is/was better than Eight Belles?    

 

It may be all that you need to know is "$5,000 to Win on Big Brown" when you walk to the wagering window for the Preakness Stakes on Saturday.  There have been many recent horses that have won the 1st 2 legs of the Triple Crown, only to falter in the testing mile and a half jaunt at the Belmont.   Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, and Charasmatic have all passed the 1st two tests of the Triple Crown journey only to see their hopes dashed by the daunting distance of the Belmont. 

This year, however, seems to be very different.  For the 1st time in my wagering livelihood has a horse seemed to have all the qualities it takes to be a Triple Crown winner.  And Big Brown seems to have all the real pieces to complete this journey.  Front running speed, tactical speed, ability to close, and the ability to avoid traffic.  Whatever pace the Preakness will be run at, Big Brown will very much be in the mix.......... and likely the one who crosses the finish line first.

But............ there is always a but.  With a morning line of 1-2 it will be very difficult for many 'true' horse racing players to wager on such a heavy favorite.  And come race time, one should fully expect that line to drop to somewhere around the ridiculous prices of 2-5 or even 1-5.  One only has to look at this year's Tampa Bay Derby in which 2 year old champion War Pass went off at the incredible odds of 1-20.  In that race War Pass didn't even hit the board.  In fact, he finished DEAD LAST.  You may have heard of the term "Bridge-Jumper", well I'm sure there were a few bridge-jumpers in Tampa on that day.  The payouts on that race were the following:

• Big Truck:   $16.40     $5.80     $25.20
• Atoned                          $6.60     $27.80
• Dynamic Wayne                        $76.20

What this board tells you is if you wagered $2 to Win, Place and Show on Big Truck you would have returned $16.40 for the Win, $5.80 for the Place, and $25.20 for the Show.  Anytime you see a board like this it tells you that the VAST majority of the Show pool was on a single horse.  More importantly, that horse was War Pass, the 1-20 favorite.  A horse racing play in many circles is to make a HUGE wager to Show on a big time favorite.  At the least, and in War Pass's case, it would mean that you would return 5 cents on every dollar wagered if he were to hit the board.  And BIG favorites of odds at 1-1 or less RARELY do not, at the least, hit the board.  There are some legendary stories on horse players who have wagered $100,000 to show on big favorites for long stretches of time.  From recent memory, I believe a player at Santa Anita was 21 for 21 wagering $100,000 to show on horses at odds of 1-1 or less, until his horse did not hit the proverbial board, only to lose all his winnings on one failed favorite.  In the case of the Tampa Bay Derby, it was likely that there was 5 to 10 times more money wagered on the Show pool than the Win pool  (sorry, I'm too lazy to look it up.)  Unheard of really.  In any race you will likely see the Win pool having 3 to 4 times more 'action' than the Place and Show pools combined.  When you see the Show pool with equal, or for that matter, MORE money wagered than the Win or Place pool, you have a big wagering advantage by taking 'lesser' horses for 'safer' plays in the Show pool slot.  I'm sure many a Big Truck wagerer would have rather put $60 to Show, than $20 to Win, Place, and Show on their horse of choice.   

So when you watch Saturday's action, pay particular attention to the Show pool.  The tote board will give you that information, and if you see more money wagered to Show than to Win, you will know exactly what is going on.  Most horse players only bet 'their' horse to Win and Place.  Rarely do they play them in the Show pool because their return on investment is so drastically reduced when 3 horses get a share of that pool. 

Well, so much for the 'wagering' tips.  Time for the race at hand.  In this year's Preakness we have 13 contenders, and here they are with post position and my analysis on each:

   1.  Macho Again:  His last race at 7 1/2 furlongs was impressive, but we are running a Mile and 3/16ths in the Preakness.  Hard to make a case for this horse other than some needed pace to make Big Brown earn his reward.  Much like his sprint champion Sire Macho Uno, Macho Again will likely turn into a sprinter of a mile or less when all is said and done. 

  2.  Tres Borrachos:  Interesting colt that is getting better.  The pedigree of Ecton Park and Forty Niner says he should be able to handle the distance.  His only fault is not having the much needed late end kick to survive against many of these, but you can't forget the giant steps in progress he is making.  Interesting long shot that will likely be near the lead at the mile pole.  Can he hang on? 

  3.  Icabad Crane:  His pedigree out of A.P. Indy screams distance, and he is a closer. He is also improving by leaps and bounds lately.  He won his last in the Federico Tesio Stakes at this same Pimilico track, and his closing style is exactly what you are looking for in a race that has some front end speed in it.  Wouldn't be a shock if he hits the board, but he will have to improve greatly on his Beyers number to truly compete with Big Brown.  An intriguing upset winner from Graham Motion. 

  4.  Yankee Bravo:  He will get some wagering action.  Personally I can't see it.  We have seen in the recent past that  West Coast horses just haven't fared well in Triple Crown races.  See Colonel John in the Derby.  And he is no Colonel John.  A likely pass on any ticket for me.

  5.  Behindatthebar:  Pulled out of the Derby to concentrate on this race.  'Supposedly' the biggest contender to Big Brown.  His biggest problem is the flop of the PolyTrack horses in the Derby.  Nary a one was even in the race.  His biggest factor is that he can close.  From how far back will be the question.  He is training increcibly well, and 'should' be a big factor in this one.  You also have to like Pletcher in his barn.  Tough horse to judge.  Could be a clunker, but he could also come from way back to win.  At the least, he should be included on many exotic tickets just in case.  Maybe even on top. 

  6.  Racecar Rhapsody:  Out of Storm Cat and A.P. Indy.  Incredible breeding on this colt, and he LOVES to close.  Outdone by Behindthebar in his last, I don't think we have seen his best just yet.  He has yet to run a clunker, but hasn't won all that that much either with one win in 6 lifetime starts.  He has never ran further than a mile and an eighth, and his breeding and numbers say he will enjoy the extra distance.  At 30-1 or better, this is a LIVE longshot contender.   

  7.  Big Brown:  The horse to beat.  Nothing more, nothing less.  Tough to make a case AGAINST him right now.  Especially against this field.  Most experts will be surprised if he doesn't win by at least 6 or more lengths.  Does a Triple Crown await?  VERY likely in my humble opinion.

  8.  Kentucky Bear:  His morning line is a bit ominous.  15-1 and he has never ran a Beyer better than 93?  And that was his 1st race?  His works are good, his trainer and jockey are above average.  I just can't see why he is at 15-1.  Sorry.  The 4th favorite?   He was beaten on PolyTrack by  1 1/2 lengths by the 19th place finisher in the Derby.  I'm intrigued by the simple stupidity in this morning line.  He was 28 to 1 in the Bluegrass Stakes, finished 3rd, and is now 15-1 in the Preakness?  I have to be missing something here.  But I REALLY doubt it.

  9.  Stevil:  Nick Zito enterd Cool Coal Man in the Derby.  I gave him some interest.  He now enters a horse in the Preakness who can't beat Kentucky Bear and Yankee Bravo.  He can't close, he can't lead, and he has ZERO tactical speed.  If I can't see Kentucky Bear, I KNOW I can't like this guy.  30-1?  If he goes off at less than 50-1 I'll be shocked.  Worst horse in the race.

  10.  Riley Tucker:  He has hit the board in 6 out of 7 lifetime races.  Problem is he has 1 lone victory.  His 1st race as a Maiden.  Hard to see this guy being much of a factor, and his workouts leading into this race are horrible to say the least.  But his last race was very comparable to many in here, and I wouldn't be shocked if he hits the board.   

  11.  Giant Moon:  I like this horse.  Out of Giant's Causeway and Storm Cat, distance should not be a problem.  A stalker, that will be at or near the pace throughout, and just dropped a bomb of a workout coming into Pimlico.  He will likely go off at 30-1 or better, and looks to be the best 'betting' price in the race.  DEFINITE longshot contender.  The biggest concern will be if he runs into traffic in the 11 hole since he needs to be near the lead.  But I feel comfortable with Dominguez as the jockey to make that happen.

  12.  ####ego:  I liked him in the Derby, until he came out of the 19 hole next to Big Brown.  Miserable race, but Mike Smith (jockey) saved him for a better day.   This is my biggest concern for Giant Moon as ####ego also needs to be near the lead to be a factor.  One of these two simply won't be a factor.  The 'supposed' biggest challenger to Big Brown has a horrible post to overcome, and another stalker to surpass from the get go.  He either finishes 1st or 2nd, or isn't even a factor.  If you are looking for a payday, keep this guy out at 8-1.  Although I doubt he even gets any 'wise' guy action with this post.  I surmise he will end up at 11-1 or better.  Bet him to Win, or don't bet him at all.    

  13.  Hey Byrn:  Big Brown only beat him by 15 3/4's lengths in the Florida Derby.  BUT.......Hey Byrn conveniently went out and won the Holy Bull, which remarkably is ran at the same mile and 3/16ths distance as the Preakness?  Hmmmmm.......... you say?  Not really.  This is another ring into the fire of the outiside post in this one.  HE ALSO has to get at or near the lead to be a factor.  Sound familiar?  His biggest problem?  He has no early 'foot' as they say.  What that means is he doesn't exactly fire out of the gate.  He will get some heat by 'wise' guys.  He will likely drop from 20-1 to 14 or 15 to 1.  Don't buy into it.  He will not be a factor. 

In the end.........?  I could give you 50 ways to wager on this thing, but it will likely be Big Brown to romp to another 5 or better length victory.  The rest just don't stack up.  The BET?  Fire a Superfecta with (7) Big Brown on top of the (3) Icabad Crane, (5)Behindatthebar, (6) Racecar Rhapsody, and (11) Giant Moon.  Be sure to 'Key' (7) Big Brown on top. 

Happy wagering all!!   If you are looking for any other wagering tips drop me a line here at foxsports.

 

 

 

Well, I just had one of the greatest weekends in my life. 

I attended this year's 134th running of the Kentucky Derby, and what a treat it was.  The fans and hospitality were great, and the scenery was simply breathtaking.  Never in my life have I seen so many beautiful 30 and 40 something year old women dressed to the nines and bombed out of their skulls on Mint Juleps.  Three seats down from me was an absolute knockout 42 year old woman who was passed out by the 4th race.  When her husband went to get another cocktail and wager on the 5th, she was left on the bleachers to lay down her weary head.  Keep in mind it was a VERY windy day in Louisville.  Every Tom, ####, and Harry in section 222 could tell you the number of polka dots on her backside by the time Hubby came back from the cocktail bar.  (By the way it was 132........or at least that is what my buddy told me.  He also indicated that the curtains and the carpet were a match.  Whatever the hell that means.)

Anyway, I got to thinking (which probably isn't a good thing since I only have about 4 brain cells left after that 3 day bender).  I got to thinking about some oddities that we have in our little world of sports.  I'll list some of the oddities, go ahead and add some of your own.

• Why is it when I order a Grand Slam at Denny's at 3:00 in the morning it really isn't a good thing.  But when my favorite player on my baseball team hits a Grand Slam I'm elated and actually still feel good about it 3 hours after it happens without having to pop 14 Rolaids.
• Who ever came up with the shape of a football?  Essentially it is a small basketball with two Madonna 'pointies' on each end.
• Why is kicking a Madonna basketball between two uprights in football called a Field Goal?  Shouldn't it be called an Air Goal?
• Why does a Fullback line up in front of a Halfback?  Or is the whole Quarterback, Halfback, Fullback thing about a preferential weighting system?
• Why do they call it the Bowl Championship Series when each team only plays 1 game?  Doesn't the word 'series' indicate that there is more than 1 'round' much less 1 game?
• Why does the NBA Playoffs take longer to complete than the gestation period of an elephant?
• How do we know that a 'batter' is a threat simply by the way he stands at the plate?
• Why is PETA outraged with Horse Racing?  Should they not be outraged with Boxing or MMA?  Or do #### sapiens rank lower on their scale in the 'animal' world?
• Why do all the great QB's lick their 3 predominant fingers on their throwing hand while exiting the huddle and heading towards the line of scrimmage?
• If a Center in football has an infatuation with Chicken Wings and Burritos, does it have an impact on his relationship with his Quarterback?
• Why is the 40 yard dash considered the 'it' factor when determing speed in football?  Wouldn't a 10 or 20 yard dash make more sense?
• Does anyone other than an MIT graduate truly understand the QB rating system?  Also, they tinker with the BCS formula every year, shouldn't they tinker with this rating system as well?
• Why is it that you either like Kobe or LeBron?  And on the flip side why do we have to 'hate' the other guy?  Can't we just enjoy the incredible talents of both?
• Why do we always root for the underdog?
• Why do negative stories about our beloved sports heroes grab headlines way before all the positive stories that our sports heroes perform?  We can all weave a tale about Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens sordid problems, but yet we have a hard time grasping the great things that many of our 'heroes' do through charities and time spent with our youth?  Do we expect them to be 'better' than us?  Or are we simply jealous?
• And lastly, why do we blog?  Much less blog about sports? 

On a lighter note, yours truly was a pony away from a $30K Superfecta in the Kentucky Derby.  I had Recapturetheglory in the 4 hole instead of Tale of Ekati.  Recapture finished 5th while Tale finished 4th.  A simple movement of Recapture into the 4 hole would have made a great weekend all that much better.  Such is the life of a degenerate horse racing gambler.

Next up.............. The Preakness.  Enjoy your weekend all, and a very Happy Mother's Day to all the beautiful fillies in our blogosphere. 

 

The annual Run for the Roses is upon us, and is only a mere 6 days away.  The 134th running of the Kentucky Derby is scheduled to be run on May 3rd @ 5:00 EDT, and yours truly is going to be there.

You can have your Super Bowl, your World Series, even your NBA Finals.  Me?  I'll take the Kentucky Derby as my favorite sporting event, and won't even bat an eye.  Regardless of what happens, the Derby always delivers.  As they say, the "Most Exciting 2 Minutes in All of Sports".   

Coming into 2008, the Derby favorite was the undefeated War Pass.  And why not.  His dominating performance in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile announced him as such.  He simply parked a field by 4 and 3/4's lengths that was supposed to be the best 2 year olds in the world.  Pyro was his only challenger, and that wasn't even close.  The 3rd place horse, Kodiak Kowboy was a mere 16 3/4's lengths behind War Pass. 

Then in his 2nd start in 2008, War Pass ran into some trouble in the Tampa Bay Derby on March 15th.  For the 1st time in his career, War Pass was not on the lead.  For the 1st time in his career, War Pass was going to have to pass someone to win.  What happened next pretty much shocked the horse racing world.  Not only did War Pass not pass ANYBODY, but he retreated and finished dead last against a pretty weak field of contestants.  He simply was never a factor.  He was then shipped to Aqueduct to compete in the Wood Memorial.  He had a ton of questions to answer.  Although he ran a gutty race, he still finished second to a 'closing' Tale of Ekati.  I use the term closing very generously.  Tale of Ekati simply passed him by default as War Pass was seriously faltering coming down the stretch.  Now War Pass has incurred an injury, and will not even compete in the Kentucky Derby.

So who is in this year's field?

Mike Watchmaker will likely make the undefeated Big Brown as the pre-race favorite.  Colonel John and Pyro will also see heavy wagering action as well in what looks to be one of the weakest Kentucky Derby fields in quite some time.  The probable favorite, Big Brown, has only run 3 career races, including only 1 race in which he has run longer than a mile.  That is very disturbing in the fact that every horse in this years field will be running a Mile and a quarter race for the very first time in their lives.  Stamina is one of the key factors in determining a Derby winner.  The first question any bettor of the Derby has to ask themselves is whether their selected horse can run a mile and a quarter.  This simple question often eliminates over half of the field. 

The list of entrants has not been finalized, but here are the likely candidates.  I have 21 horses listed, but only 20 will get in. 

  Pyro :  Even at odds of 5 to 1, many a wiseguy will be on this Asmussen trained colt who is well seasoned, and has proven that he can win at Churchill and run in any assortment of racing styles:  on the lead, stalking, or even as a deep closer.  Versatility is needed when racing in the Derby.  Definite contender.

  Tale of Ekati:  His win at Aqueduct was more by the default of War Pass than anything else.  However, many racing afficianados have been waiting for this Colt to blossom.  After his win the Belmont Futurity last year, this Tagg trained Colt has been a bit of a disappointment.  His win in the Wood may be just the ticket to unleash this extremely talented colt. 

  Colonel John:  The West Coast champion(?) has been impressive throughout his 1st 6 races, winning 4, and finishing 2nd twice.  The big concern is that he has not been dominating, and West Coast horses have not fared well in the Derby as of late.  He will likely need a career effort to hit the board.  His odds at anything less than 10 to 1 seem a bit overpriced for me.  The only horses he has beaten in this field are Monba and Bob Black Jack.  The last, at the wire in the 1st time that colt ran over a mile, much less a mile and an eigth.  Not too mention, Georgia Boy, who is not running is likely the best colt out west anyway.

  ####ego:  5 lifetime starts, 3 wins and 2 seconds.  This horse held tough down the stretch in his last in the Arkansas Derby.  He is improving every race, and may be primed to pop a big one on Saturday.  The big question for ####ego is his pedigree.  He is simply not geared to run a mile and a quarter. 

  Big Brown:  Tough not to like this colt when you compare him to the others.  Has been impressive in all 3 of his outings, and romped to a 5 length victory despite the 12 hole post and torrid fractions in the Florida Derby.  Bar none, this is the most talented horse in the field, but a horse has never won the Derby with only 3 lifetime starts entering the race.  A huge hurdle he will have to overcome.

  Z Humor:  Hard to see this colt being much of a factor for the win.  Finishing 3rd, 4th, and 5th in his last 3 races, Z Humor has proven that he cannot beat a lot of the horses in this field.  He will likely need a perfect trip just to hit the board.  The only factor on his side is that he is bred to run the distance, thus he should not falter coming down the stretch, and may have something more in the tank than we have seen thus far.

  Monba:  This colt looked like he was done after a 12th place finish in the Fountain of Youth.  Suprisingly he came back to beat 5 of his rivals in this race to capture the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes.  Those rivals include Pyro, Cool Coal Man, Visionaire, Big Truck, and Cowboy Cal.  Pletcher is arguably the best trainer in the world, but Prado leaving this mount has to be a concern.  Another note is that the Keeneland victory was slow and also on PolyTrack.    

  Court Vision:  If you are looking for a deep closer this is your horse.  This colt has also had problems in his last two, but still managed to hit the board.   He had a sizzling work on the 17th, and has won on this track before.  Gomez has won the Derby before in the irons, and Mott is one of the most well-respected trainers in the country.  He will likely go off at odds of 15 to 1 or better.  Very intriguing, and has the pedigree to go the distance.  

  Z Fortune:  Tough horse to gauge.  Has not won in his last 3 starts, and even when running against much lesser competition.  Did run a strong race for a 2nd to Pyro in the Risen Star and 2nd to ####ego in the Arkansas Derby.  Asmussen is a great trainer, but this guy just seems to be a notch or two below many in this race. 

  Adriano:  Hasn't really beaten anybody of note, and when he stepped up to stiff competition in the Fountain of Youth, he was simply never a factor.  Don't read too much into the Lane's End Stakes win at Turfway, that was a less than stellar field and it was run in an extremely sluggish time.  Looks like a career effort is needed just to hit the board.  Since he is a stalker, that just doesn't seem very likely to happen.       

  Recapturetheglory:  The win in the Illinois Derby has to be respected.  He took the lead and put many of these away down the stretch while romping to a 4 length victory.  That was just the race this colt needed.  You will likely get this guy at odds of 20 to 1 or better, and past Derby champions have used a romp in the Illinois Derby as a path to success before.  A definite longshot contender that should be on or close to the lead from the start.  Breeding says he can go the distance. 

  Smooth Air:  Has done no worse than 3rd in 7 lifetime starts, and finished a respectable 2nd to Big Brown in the Florida Derby although he was 5 lengths behind.  The major question for this guy is the distance.  I just can see him going a mile and a quarter, and he won't be on the lead anyway.  Tough to like, and will likely be at 50 to 1 odds or more.

  Cool Coal Man:  Very talented colt who was the winner of the Fountain of Youth Stakes against a very strong field.  His falter in the Toyota Blue Grass at Keeneland can be forgiven since it was on PolyTrack.  The disturbing news is his 7th place finish the only time he has run at Churchill.  His worst performance in his career.  If you feel the Fountain of Youth is the true bearing of this colt, then he is a definite contender.  Tough horse to gauge, but should be a serious consideration for the win and on any exotic ticket.  You will also get some serious odds of 30 to 1 or better. 

  Anak Nakal:  Another Nick Zito entry that just hasn't shown much in 2008 with finishes of 5th, 7th, and 8th in his last 3 races.  But Zito isn't giving up on this Colt just yet.  We have been waiting for this colt to fire in 2008, and he has won on this track before.  If you are looking for a SERIOUS long shot, this might be your ticket.  Likely to go off at more than 50 to 1.  Breeding says he will handle the distance.  Big question is if he can get into contention coming into the stretch?  Highly unlikely that he can improve by 20 lengths, but this horse can close, and does have talent.    

  Eight Belles:  Ahhhhh...... a filly.  We have not had a filly in the Kentucky Derby since Silverbulletday back in 1999.  Don't count this lady out, we all learned a lesson in last year's Belmont Stakes when Rags to Riches put the boys away at the mile and a half distance.  This filly has already ran 6 career races over a mile in distance and has won her last four.  She may run in the Kentucky Oaks on friday, but don't count her out from running against the boys.  If she does, she should be very competitive, and could even pull a shocker and win.  Larry Jones is a great trainer, and this horse could put some ####e into this race.  Consider her at the least in any exotic wagers.   

  Cowboy Cal:  Will need to be on the lead to have a shot, and even so, it is highly unlikely he can finish the mile and a quarter distance.  His best chance would be to hang on and hit the board, but I doubt he even has the lead.  Will need a great post, and a great trip to even be a factor.  He will likely turn into a miler sometime this year. 

  Behindatthebar:  That was a big time close at Keeneland in his last, and in a pretty good time as well.  This colt has basically come out of nowhere in the past month, but looks like he can be ready to unload a big one on Saturday.  With Pletcher guiding and Flores on the mount, you have to give this horse some serious consideration.  He'll be coming late, and if fractions up front are torrid, he should be in the mix.  At 25 to 1 or better, another intriguing longshot contender.  

  Visionaire:  Tough to like.  A closer who doesn't like the distance.  Has also struggled against many of these before.  Wouldn't be surprised if he gets pulled for a different race. 

  Big Truck: His win in the Tampa Bay Derby may be about as good as this horse can do.  And that won't even put him into the top 10 on Saturday.  Hard to see this guy even hitting the board.  Look elsewhere.  

  Bob Black Jack:  I hope this guy gets in.  Primarily thought of as a sprinter, this colt ran a strong 2nd to Colonel John in the Santa Anita Derby in his 2nd effort going more than a mile.  The World Record Holder at 6 furlongs, this colt could set some torrid fractions and may cause some big problems for Big Brown if he gets caught up with him.  This guy could be a huge factor in the pace of this race if he gets in.  Other horses such as War Emblam have 'stolen' the Derby in the past by getting to a comfortable lead with generous fractions.  His effort in the Santa Anita Derby could have been just the ticket to give this guy the needed stamina to cover the mile and a quarter.  If he gets a good post, he could be a serious contender.    

  Denis of Cork:  The likely odd man out would get some serious wiseguy heat if he gets in.  With only 4 lifetime starts, and 3 wins, this horse has some tactical speed that many others don't possess.  His victory in the Southwest Stakes in which he closed from 18 lengths back has to be respected.  Big problem.  He didn't handle the mile and an eighth distance at the Illinois Derby very well, and wasn't much of a factor.  He will have to uncork a career best, but may be just primed to do so.  One of the best bred horses in the race.  

Well, that is the probable entrants for Saturday.  I'll be at the race firing back a Mint Julep or two, and likely wagering way too much money.  I haven't found my winner yet, but will likely post sometime later this week.

Happy wagering all, and best of luck.

WAGERING NOTE:  One of the key factors often used in picking a Derby winner is that 18 of the last 20 winners have posted a 104 Beyer or better prior to running in the Derby.  If you look at this years field that limits it to 3 contestants.  Bob Black Jack (109), Big Brown (106), and Pyro (105).  Others that were close are ####ego (103), Z Fortune (102), and Recapturetheglory (102).  Only 1 other horse has cracked a 100, and that is Eight Belles with a 100 Beyer. 

horse capsules, logos courtesy of:  http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2008/conten
ders

odds courtesy of:  http://www.horseswild.com/kentucky-derby
/kentucky-derby-2007-odds.php

The Belmont Stakes has had a long history of showcasing some of horse racing's greatest champions.  It is the last leg in the infamous Triple Crown.  The final jewel to crown the champion of champions.

Since 1973, the Belmont Stakes has taken on a new meaning in this country.  That was the year that Secretariat probably ran the most historic race in the history of horse racing.  Secretariat stamped himself as the greatest horse of all-time by cleaning out the contenders by a mere 40 lengths.  Secretariat still holds the track record at Belmont.  He still holds the World Record for a horse at the 1 1/2 mile distance due to his display that day.

Secretariat's performance that day, undoubtedly pegged him as #25 on ESPN's greatest athletes of all-time.  Yes, I'm sure there are many doubters out there that cannot include a horse as an athlete.  I can see your point.  We may as well proclaim an elephant every year as the world's strongest 'man', and a cheetah as the world's fastest 'man' while we are at it. 

Horses, however, do know that they are racing.  They don't know any better.  That is what they were born to do.  Run.  And run fast.  I'll never convince anybody that does not love horse racing to look at it any different. 

I will, however, say that it is one of America's longest and most sacred pasttimes.  Horse racing has a strong legion of fans, and yes, most likely gamblers, but doesn't every American sport?  Tell me the NFL would be the NFL without the spread?  Tell me America would be perplexed right now with the NBA Finals without a line?  Watch a Buffalo vs. Temple football game and tell me that you don't have a dime on it without having attended either University. 

As much as it pains any fan to say, gambling is what makes sports go round.

With that said I give you the 139th running of The Belmont Stakes.  Without Street Sense running, this race will undoubtedly lose much of its luster.  But, with Curlin and Hard Spun running, it will not be a complete loss.  If Street Sense would have held on in the last 100 yards of The Preakness, we would have had a match race between Street Sense, Curlin, AND Hard Spun.  The top 3 horses from both The Kentucky Derby and The Preakness.

However, we are succumbed to the reality that Street Sense will not be running.  As he shouldn't.  His trainers know better than to do that.  For a horse to run 3 races in a 5 week span is extremely hard for them to do.  If Street Sense would have won The Preakness, no doubt he would be running on Saturday, but facts are facts, and he will not be amongst the starters.  The owners and trainers will start gearing Street Sense for the end of year Breeder's Cup Classic.

Well, so much for horses who aren't running.  Here's who is running:

I'mawildandcrazy guy:  An impressive run in The Kentucky Derby in which he came roaring from 20th (yes he was dead last, even behind Street Sense's incredible romp from 19th), to claim 4th place and add some serious punch to the Superfecta.  I'm going to call this a career race for a 12th time starter, but he may enjoy the extra distance that The Belmont will offer.  However, I'll definitely wager against this guy making any noise of pulling the upset.

Tiago:  The true closer in this field.  If there is a hot pace in this one, expect this guy to be coming late.  Very late.  He has a chance to pull a huge upset in this one.

Curlin:  Undoubtedly the huge favorite.  His comeback win in The Preakness showed a lot about this horse.  If not for a stagnant middle run in The Kentucky Derby, this guy may have had a chance to win the Triple Crown.  A lot of similarities to Afleet Alex.  Not many horses get passed in the stretch by a quality horse, only to come back and win.  That is exactly what he did against Street Sense in The Preakness.  No doubt he will be tough to beat.

C P West:  My HUGE longshot in The Preakness was not disappointing.  He finished a respectable 4th, and probably should have held onto 3rd to complete a nice trifecta over Hard Spun.  Expect this guy to keep improving and may be a big part of this race.

Slew's Tizzy:  Hmmmm..... tough to peg this colt.  Definitely has some talent.  He is off of two nice victories and has won 3 times out of 7 races.  He may push Hard Spun to put some pace into this race, but looks like he just isn't quite ready to run against these.........just yet.

Hard Spun:  This guy has yet to run a bad race, and has been right there at the quarter pole in both The Kentucky Derby and The Preakness.  His hard-charging early style just doesn't quite set up for good things at The Belmont.  I'll be a bit surprised if he hits the board.

Rags to Riches:  The new-comer with a serious threat to win this thing.  THE BIG PROBLEM?  This is a FILLY.  In case you don't know horse racing that is a female horse (Not that there is anything wrong with that.).  In a sprint, one could consider.  In a mile and a half?  One has to seriously consider her chances.  Her win in The Kentucky Oaks (the big race the day BEFORE The Kentucky Derby), was impressive, and will spark some interest from bettors.  Personally, I'll bet against a filly every day of the week in The Belmont.  The Kentucky Oaks was a 1 1/8th mile race.  The longest of her career.  However, I would definitely include her in exotics, just not to win.

So what are the picks you say?

Well, I'm going to have a hard time going against Curlin.  But if you know me, I'll try to find a way to beat him.  The best chances are C P West and Tiago.  Hard Spun just doesn't have the endurance, and I'mawildancrazyguy just doesn't fit here.  If you are truly looking for a longshot, take a swing at Slew's Tizzy.  This horse is seriously due to pop a big one.  And with bloodlines from Seattle Slew and Tiznow, he definitely has the breeding.

What am I going to do?  I'll probably make a big Exacta wager on Tiago and C P West to try and make some hay.  I will also key Curlin over Tiago and C P West.

For the Trifecta, I'll take a chance on Curlin in the two hole, with Tiago and C P West with the upset, and I'mawildandcrazyguy, Slew's Tizzy, C P West, and Tiago on the bottom.  I'll also box the other four outside of Curlin for a huge payday.

The Superfecta.  Don't waste your time, unless you box everybody but Curlin and Rags to Riches.

Well, that is The Belmont as Nostra sees it.  Happy wagering all, and good luck!

 

24 hours till I will have a Mint Julep in hand.  It doesn't get any better than this for us horse racing afficianados.  The Kentucky Derby is here.  All the hype, all the pomp and history will soon take a back seat to "the most exciting 2 minutes in sports".

Hi Plains Drifter has already compiled his ratings on each horse.  I'll do the same.  However, I'm a numbers guy, and my numbers rate Street Sense as the horse to beat.  So here goes:

1.  Sedgefield (50-1)  Sedgefield, Seinfeld, what's the difference?  Every year there are a handful of horses that just don't belong in the Derby.  This is one of them.

2.  Curlin (7-2) The odds on favorite.  Has not ran a bad race.  His 101 Beyer in his first career race is pretty amazing.  This colt may be the freak we have been waiting for to carry a Triple Crown.  However, he has only 3 career starts, draws a bad post, and we all know how favorites have fared at the Derby.  Looking elsewhere.

3.  Zanjero (30-1):  Beaten by Imawilldandcrazyguy.  Beaten by a lot of horses in here.  I'll be shocked if he hits the board.

4.  Storm in May (30-1):  Great name.  Not a very good horse compared to these.  Like Sedgefield, he just doesn't belong.

5.  Imawildandcrazyguy (50-1):  Give me a bicycle and I can beat this horse.  Another one that just doesn't belong.

6.  Cowtown Cat (20-1):  Interesting Colt.  Steadily improved since Todd Pletcher was added to the barn.  Definite longshot contender here.  Workouts have been extremely good since adding Pletcher as well. 

7.  Street Sense (4-1):  Grades out to be the best of the best.  Hasn't really ran a bad race in all 7 offerings in his lifetime.  He is also the defending Breeders Cup Juvenile champion.  As I have noted before, the Juvenile Champion has never won the Derby.  I'll try to beat him, but it will be tough to keep him off of any exotic ticket. 

8.  Hard Spun (15-1):  My shot to win.  Larry Jones is an unheralded trainer, and Pino is a reasonable jockey.  Has 5 wins in 6 lifetime starts.  Hard not to like a winner, and at 15-1, tough to beat the price as well.  His workouts recently have been monstrous.  All signs point towards go on this Colt.  He also has the breeding in Danzig and Northern Dancer, thus distance should not be a problem. 

9.  Liquidity (30-1):  Hmmmm.  30-1 you say?  Nah, this horse just isn't ready.  However, I would look for good things to come in the future for this horse.  Hasn't quite put it together yet, but Doug O'neill will eventually get this guy figured out.  Depending on how he finishes here, he may be an apetizing entrant in The Preakness.  They are also taking the blinkers off, so at least they are trying to give this guy a jolt.

10.  Teuflesberg (30-1):  This is my big longshot.  This horse has failed to get out of the gate with any success his last 4 races.  He is a speed horse, and must be on the lead to have a chance.  If he gets a good break (which looks a little sketchy), he has a chance to pull the shocker on Saturday.

11.  Bwana Bull (50-1):  Another horse that just doesn't belong here.  The only reason to wager on this guy is due to his trainer, Jerry Holledorfer.  One of the best out west.  Also has breeding out of Holy Bull.  You definitely need to look elsewhere.

12.  Nobiz Like Shobiz (8-1):  What the heck?  Is Ethel Merman running?  Anyway, this horse was the one to beat after his showing in the Holy Bull back in February.  His loss in the Fountain of Youth is nothing to be ashamed of.  Scat Daddy and Stormello are quality horses, and he was only beaten by 1/2 a length.  Scat Daddy seems to have his number, but don't be surprised if the Roses are flung around this guys neck.

13.  Sam P.  (20-1):  Another Todd Pletcher trained entry.  The beaten favorite in the Santa Anita Derby.  At 20-1, this guy will be on many of my exotic tickets.  Distance seems to have been a little bit of an issue for this Colt, but breeding indicates he should be able to turn the corner on that aspect at some point in time. 

14.  Scat Daddy (10-1):  I'm sure a ton of experts will be picking this guy.  With Prado aboard and Pletcher in the barn, his connections scream a big loud yes.  Problem is, he hasn't raced in 5 weeks.  With 8 starts and 5 lifetime wins as well as $1.3 Million in career earnings, there is a lot to like about this guy.  I can't put my finger on it, but I just don't like this horse.  I'm sure I'll have him on some exotic tickets, but I can't see this guy winning.

15.  Tiago (15-1):  A monster close in the Santa Anita Derby for the victory at the wire.  The half brother to Giacomo screams closing success as well.  In 4 lifetime starts, he was only impressive in his latest.  He has also had some monster works since the SA Derby.  This guy should not be excluded from any exotic ticket.  Will most likely be a lot of peoples longshot choice.

16.  Circular Quay (8-1):  When I first looked at this guy, I was really liking him.  But it is tough to put so much respect for a horse into 1 simple race.  Afterall the only horse he beat was Zanjero, and I don't like that guy.  He is another deep closer, and this post should suit him just fine.  A little odd the two big closers will be side by side.  Will need a brutal pace to set up his late rush.  Definite consideration for any ticket you may be looking to wager.

17.  Stormello (30-1):  This guy is what I call a plugger.  He'll bring his best just about everytime, but just isn't quite good enough.  He could slip in for 3rd or 4th with a good trip.  Look elsewhere for your winner.

18.  Any Given Saturday (12-1):  Great name for a Kentucky Derby hopeful.  Not to mention this guy has some talent as well.  The final Pletcher entry may be his best.  It cost the owners $1.325 Million to purchase this guy.  Breeding with Distorted Humor and A.P. Indy are very good signs for the distance.  He can run just off the pace, or come from way back.  Good news for any Derby horse if they have that kind of talent.  I'll be putting this guy with Hard Spun on virtually every ticket I wager on Saturday.  My second choice.

19.  Dominican (20-1):  Hard to ignore the horse that just beat Street Sense.  His lone work since that victory is impressive as well.  Breeding isn't the greatest and I'm not a huge fan of his connections either.  If this guy beats me, so be it.

20.  Great Hunter (15-1):  Another one of the horses a lot of the experts will be on.  No doubt this guy has some talent.  He has run into serious trouble in 3 of his last 4 races.  Works are resonable, and the connections are superb with Nakatani on board and Doug O'neill in the barn.  Don't let the 20 post bother you a whole lot since this guy likes to come from midpack anyway.   Aptitude and A.P. Indy breeding are also a definite bonus.  Definitely include this guy in some of your exotic tickets.

Well there you have it.  My break down of the Derby entrants.  So what are my picks you ask?  Well, here goes:

Winner(s):  Hard Spun or Any Given Saturday

Exacta:  I will hammer Hard Spun and Any Given Saturday on a single ticket.  I will then box these two with others such as Cowtown Cat, Street Sense, Teuflesburg, Tiago, Circular Quay, and Great Hunter.

Trifecta:  I'll key Hard Spun and Any Given Saturday on top.  With Street Sense, Circular Quay, and Tiago, and filling out the bottom with Cowtown Cat, Nobiz, Sam P., Scat Daddy, and Great Hunter.  I'll also create some other tickets involving these same horses as well in case Hard Spun or Any Given Saturday do not win.

Superfecta:  I'll box these 4:  Hard Spun, Any Given Saturday, Street Sense, and Circular Quay.  I'll also dream up some combinations of the horses I mentioned in other wagers as well.

Saver:  I'll key Curlin on top of some tickets in case he is the real deal as well.

That is how Nostradomus sees it.  Happy wagering all, and best of luck on the greatest day on any given calendar year.

 

Today, I went out to the DRF (Daily Racing Form) website to get their free issue of past performances for the horses entered in this years Kentucky Derby.  I was shocked to find out that there are relatively few horses that have earned even a 100 Beyer speed figure in any race in their career. 

This is troubling to me, since I have come to handicap this race with one simple rule on picking the winner.  They MUST have earned at least a 104 Beyer figure in any race leading into the Kentucky Derby.  The only winner in the last 10 - 15 years that won the Derby without at least a 104 Beyer figure in a previous race before the Derby was Giacomo.  However, I can forgive Giacomo because he was such a deep closer and had to be respected, even at odds of 50-1.  If I were to use this formula for this years race there is only 1 horse that has earned a Beyer figure of 104 or greater.  That horse is Street Sense.  His 108 Beyer that he registered at last year's romp in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Stakes stands as the only race of all 20 horses that has registered a Beyer figure above 104. 

The lack of high Beyer numbers makes this a very difficult race.  Why?  Because, historically, the winner of The Kentucky Derby has registered Beyer numbers between 108 to 115, or better (I believe Monarchos's Beyer number was 117 or 118).  With that in mind, it is very difficult for a horse to improve 10 or more Beyer points from one race to the next.  Especially when you are running numbers in the 90's +.  Horses will typically not improve that much from one race to the next when racing at the highest of levels.  An example would be a world class 100 meter sprinter who had never run under 10.15 seconds in his entire career.  He was now matched up against a field of runners who have all have shown the ability to run under 10 seconds, and the possibility of World Record speed of 9.76.  Improving from 10.15 to 10.00 may seem possible.  But to improve to 9.8, much less 9.9 seems absolutely ridiculous.  

From year to year I have been able to exclude over half the field based upon the 104 Beyer criteria.  Many times I have narrowed it down to 5 or 6, with as many as 9 in one year.  When handicapping 20 horses this makes picking the winner a much simpler process.  With the lack of 104+ Beyers this year, my task will be much more difficult, unless I simply stick to my criteria and proclaim that Street Sense will undoubtedly be this year's Kentucky Derby winner.  I'll have a hard time doing that. 

In case you don't know what a Beyer speed figure is, I'll point you towards the DRF link that lists out the past performances of all the horses entered in The Kentucky Derby.  This 'form' is the handicappers 'bible' when it comes to horse racing.  Just about every statistic you would like to know about a horse is plugged into this form for you to judge which horse is the best.  You will notice the Beyer figure in bold black.  The first horse, Sedgefield, has Beyer figures of 75, 96, and 93 in his last 3 respective races.  Here is the website that will show you the form:  http://www.drf.com/row/pps/07kentuckyderby.pdf>.

As you will notice, there are only 9 horses that have ever earned a Beyer figure of 100 or better.  I will most likely change my criteria to a number around 98, 99, or 100 due to a serious lack of high Beyer numbers.

Well enough about Beyer numbers.  That is only a small part of handicapping The Kentucky Derby, but is definitely a nice starting point.  There are many more areas of interest when perusing through the form.  The other item that I will point out to you on the form is the breeding.  In the top middle of every horse you will see the titles Sire: (Father), and Dam: (Mother).  Horse racing is all about breeding.  This is where owners really make their money is in breeding and selling of horses.  You will notice many great horses that are listed as father's and mother's of horses in this years Kentucky Derby.  But the important factor in breeding for The Kentucky Derby is stamina.  Remember, none of these horses has ever ran a mile and quarter before.  The Derby prep races are all run at distances of a mile and a sixteenth or a mile and an eighth.  The extra furlong or so can prove to be very beneficial, or very detrimental to any particular horse.  This is what makes breeding all that much more important.  Giacomo in 2005 had excellent distance breeding, and had shown a penchance for closing late.  If you like closers, you will want to note sires such as A.P. Indy, Thunder Gulch, Northern Dancer etc.  These horses all had the ability to run longer distances, and win.  So if you can find a horse that has the ability to pass horses late in their prep races, and have excellent breeding, you may also find your elusive Derby winner as well.  (An interesting note is that Tiago is the half brother to Derby champion Giacomo.  Some food for thought.)

So that is my tidibits of information for today.  I won't bore you with more information on how to read the form,  I could spend hours doing so.  I will be looking deep into this year's form to find my Derby winner over the next 40+ hours to find my favorites, longshots, and exotic ticket entries.  So tune in tomorrow, and Nostradomus will give you his selections for this year's Kentucky Derby winner.  One thing I can guarantee, is that I will not be giving you favorites, but keys to making a bunch of cash on Derby day.  Longshots have been the history at Churchill Downs on Derby Day, and I will be vehemently searching for this years winning combination(s).

 

 

Three days away from the greatest day in May.  Three days away from me making some hay.  Three days away till, shall I say, CIrcular Quay?  I may. 

I'm more excited than the Pointer Sisters.  I'm more geeked up than Forrest Gump.  In fact I'm more wound up than a 10 year old on Christmas Eve.  To me, there is not a better day on the calendar than the day of The Kentucky Derby.  The annual Run for the Roses is nearly upon us and your favorite prognosticator is getting eerily close to releasing the names and numbers of his Kentucky Derby hopefuls.  Hopefuls?  What am I talking about?  Excuse me, a short lapse of reasoning overcame me, I meant to say WINNERS. Winner, winner, chicken dinner!

So what happened today you say?  Well, outside of the actual race itself, today is the most important day of Derby week.  Posts were drawn, and the initial odds have been released.    Curlin, the Steve Asmussen trained chestnut colt has drawn the 2 hole, and is the odds on favorite at 7/2.  I was thinking he would be 9/2, but hey, what the heck do I know.  Curlin is a deserving fav