The supposed also-ran of the 6 BCS conferences, the Big East is the only league that can claim 3 straight BCS bowl game victories. So why do I have them pegged 5th in my standings of BCS conferences? I guess I'm a glutton for punishment.
When Virginia Tech, Miami, and Boston College left the Big East nearly everyone outside of the Big East fans expected this conference to fold up into itself. That was before West Virginia, Louisville, South Florida, Cincinnati, and Connecticut decided that they would become better than anyone ever expected.
In the past three years there aren't many teams that can claim that they were better than West Virginia. In fact you could have made a strong case for the 'Neers that they were good enough to have played in the National Championship game last year, and even the year before. Their dismantling of a pretty damn good Oklahoma team in the Fiesta Bowl last year proved their belonging. (Although many pundits would argue that Oklahoma was a likely pretender, especially after losing to Boise State last year.)
So what does the Big East have in store for us this year? Some quality signal-callers are gone, but the top end, including West Virginia and South Florida should get strong recognition as National Title Contenders, if not at the least being 'sleepers'.
My conference prediction:
West Virginia
South Florida
Pittsburgh
Louisville
Connecticut
Rutgers
Syracuse
Cincinnati
And here are my reasons why:
West Virginia: Over the past three years, West Virginia has been one of the top 5 programs in the nation. Pat White, Steve Slaton, and Darius Reynaud formed the nucleus of one of the most powerful offenses in the entire country. However, Slaton and Reynaud are gone, and their 'spread inventing' coach Rich Rodriguez has parted for 'richer' pastures in Michigan. 1st year coach Bill Stewart is left with a lot of offensive firepower, but it will be the defense that is the major question in Morgantown. With only 4 starters returning on that side of the ball, one of the top defensive units in the nation last year will struggle to match last years strong output. Reed Williams is a solid LB in the middle, but he will be without stalwarts Johnny Dingle and Keilen #### up front, as well as his hard-hitting LB running mate Marc Magro. The secondary loses every starter from last year. But we should expect Ellis Lanskter, the JUCO recruit from last year, to wreck some havoc in 2008. And the 'Neers will need him to step up big time. Pat White will still be Pat White and Noel Devine will be an even better version of Steve Slaton. What they will truly need on the offensive side of the ball in order for the 'spread' to truly be special is a wideout to assume Reynaud's role. The other missing piece on offense that will be sorely missed is the punishing blocking of Owen Schmitt. Missed amongst many of White's and Slaton's dashes to greatness were crushing blocks laid out by Schmitt. Sometimes taking out 2 and even 3 players to pave the way to paydirt for those 2 great players. The ENTIRE offensive line is back, with 4 Seniors and a Junior, thus there should not be any concerns with the hogs up front. The Mountaineers may still be the class of the Big East in '08, but their out of conference schedule is brutal with games @ East Carolina, @ Colorado, and vs. Auburn at home on a Thursday night in Morgantown. Even if they run the table in the Big East, they could very well end up with 2 or more losses on the year. But when all is said and done, West Virginia still looks like 'the pick' in the Big East.
South Florida: The South Florida 'Brahma' Bulls were riding high last year as they were 6-0 and ranked #2 in the nation with wins over Auburn and West Virginia to their credit. Three weeks later they were 6-3 and completely out of the rankings. They swept the remainder of their games in conference play, but were then humiliated by Oregon in the Sun bowl 56-21. And that was against a struggling Oregon team without Dennis Dixon. So what's to like about South Florida in 2008? They have 17 starters returning, including their tough and scrappy signal-caller Matt Grothe. On the defensive side of the ball, George Selvie, everybody's All-American DE is back. Included with that is his 14 1/2 sacks and 17 TFL (Tackles For Loss). The Bulls play absolutely nobody in non-conference other than Kansas at home, and I fully expect them to win that contest. In conference play they get 4 home games, BUT they play West Virginia on the road in their conference finale. They will get 2 weeks to prepare for that game, and from what I see it will be for all the marbles. The big question is: Will USF be undefeated going into that contest? I'll give it a 33% chance. The only 'loseable' games coming into that contest look to be Kansas, Pittsburgh, or @ Louisville. The Bulls may well have the best overall record in the confernce and not be the conference champion. Any way that you look at it though, the Bulls should be very much considered as, at the least, a National Title 'sleeper' contender.
Pittsburgh: Dave Wannstedt has supposedly recruited the best talent to Pitt in the entire Big East over the past 4 years. He has little to show for it. Zero bowl games, and zero conference titles. 1st Team Big East WR Derek Kinder is back, and LeSean McCoy is one of the best RB's in the entire country. In all, the Panthers return 15 starters from last years disappointing 5-7 team. But........ they beat West Virginia in the final game of the season, and were competitive in every game outside of back to back lashings at the hands of Connecticut and Virginia. On the defensive side of the ball AA candidate Scott McKillop is back to roam the LB corps along with freshman AA Greg Romeus at DE and a solid DT in Rashaad Duncan. The non-conference schedule has a couple of possible hiccups in Iowa and @ Notre Dame, but this is a team that should be extremely competitive in every game this year. Four conference road games are a concern, but they get THREE 2 week layoffs between games this year. A rarity in College Football. I nearly pegged this team on top in the conference this year since they have a solid core of Seniors and Juniors to lead the way. There is a lot to like about Pitt this year, but Wannstedts inability to win with previous talent has swayed me to peg them in the 3 hole. I would not be shocked if they ended up winning the Big East in 2008. Either way, the Panthers should at least go bowling for the 1st time since Wannstedt's arrival.
Louisville: "The 'Ville". Brian Brohm is gone. But don't feel sorry for Steve Kragthorpe for having to replace the 2nd best QB in Louisville history. (Yes, Johnny Unitas would be #1). Hunter Cantwell has proven that he can play, and he may end up being a better QB than Brohm at the Collegiate level due to his ability to scramble and make plays with his legs. This year, he will likely need it. Outside of Brohm, the Cardinals lost the nucleus of one of the best receiving corps in the nation in Harry Douglass, Mario Urrutia, and Gary Barnridge. The Cards also only return 9 total starters. However, they lose a lot of bad baggage on the defensive side of the ball. After giving up 31.4 points per game on defense last year, the Cards will definitely need to regroup. But I fully expect them to do just that. If Louisville will have anything, they will have speed on defense. They should also have a much stronger front 4 on the defensive side than they enjoyed last year. As a team they only sacked the QB 17 times. To put that into perspective, Greg Middleton from Indiana had 16 by himself last year. That stat will undoubtedly improve. They also gave up a pathetic 4.4 yards per rush. The non-conference slate will prove to be testing with games against Kentucky, Kansas State, and @ Memphis, but they should be much better because of it. This is a 'sleeper' Big East pick as they get my top two teams at home in USF and West Virginia. At the very least, we should expect them to be much more competitive than the 6-6 team that was a defensive nightmare in 2007.
Connecticut: Connecticut was one of the feel good stories in 2007. Going into their final regular season contest of the year against West Virginia they had a chance at being Big East Conference champions. 66-21 later, and their dreams were crushed. They were also manhandled in their bowl game loss to Wake Forest. On the bright side, they return 17 starters, but this years schedule will prove to be much more daunting. They may well start out 4-0, but then they play Louisville, North Carolina, and Rutgers in back to back to back games. They also get THREE 2 week rests between games this year. But as in years past, a UConn victory on any weekend is not exactly 'guaranteed'. Randy Edsall has done a fantastic job up in Storrs, but the Huskies should expect a slide back to reality in 2008. Tyler Lorenzen is a nice QB, but he doesn't exactly catch your eye as a difference maker. Andre Dixon is a serviceable RB, but is far from being 'special'. When all was said and done after last year's dream season, the Huskies had 4 defensive players with over 100 tackles. There is no other team in College Football that enjoyed that luxury. Louisville gave up a gashing 4.4 yards per carry last year, and so did Connecticut. The biggest mark that sticks out is Connecticuts +14 turnover margin from last year. With 6 road games, and the much improved Pitt and Louisville squads in their conference, I may have UConn a bit high. Pretty bold statement for a 2nd place team with 17 returning starters. But for a team that averaged 4 yards of offense less per game than their opponents last year, I'm pretty confident in my approach. The more I think about it, I might just have them rated a bit too high.
Rutgers: Who didn't like the Rutgers story from 2006? However, even last year I called for at least 5 losses from the Scarlet Knights in 2007, and that is exactly what they gave us. Greg Schiano has done an absolutely incredible coaching job in New Jersey, and should demand everyone's respect with the turnaround that has taken place at Rutgers. However, the best player in school history, Ray Rice is gone. All 2,012 rushing yards that he had last year as well. That just doesn't get replaced overnight. Mike Teel, Kenny Brit, and Tiquan Underwood embody a solid passing attack, but I fear the ground game of Ray Rice will be a huge factor in the Rutgers continued drop into Big East obscurity. Last year, the Scarlett Knights only had 1 impressive victory. A 30-27 win over then #2 ranked South Florida. From there they finished the season 2-3 and went on to beat an overmatched Ball State team in a meaningless bowl game to garner their 8th win. In all, Rutgers had 8 victories. Those 8 victories were over Buffalo, Navy, Norfolk State, Syracuse, USF, Army, Pittsburgh, and Ball State. They may have 15 starters returning, but the loss of Ray Rice is just too much for a program like Rutgers to improve upon a 3-4 conference record from a year ago. They also play Fresno State, North Carolina, and Navy in non-conference play. I fully expect 2 losses in those 3 games. Throw in road trips to West Virginia, Pittsburgh, and South Florida, and the Knights will struggle to get upwards on a .500 season. With only 1 starter returning on the offensive line, and not a real playmaker on defense to make a true difference, I don't expect much out of Rutgers in 2008. If they are to surprise again in 2008, it will be the defense that will carry the load.
Syracuse: Can somebody call Donovan McNabb, Marvin Harrison, Donovon Darius, and Dwight Freeney? Wow, has this once proud program fallen off the proverbial map or what? After Paul Pasqualoni was run out of town, Greg Robinson hasn't exactly struck any fear into the landscape of College Football at Syracuse. In 3 years Greg has a 7-20 record, including 2-19 against conference opponents. Putting it nicely, Mr. Robinson needs to win a few games in 2008 to keep his job up in the Carrier Dome for the 2009 season. Throw in non-confernce games @ Northwestern, Penn State, and @ Notre Dame and it doesn't look real bright. But..... they do return 14 starters including their talented, but oft-criticized, signal-caller Andrew Robinson. Throw in 4 conference road games and it looks even dimmer. However, Mr. Robinson (no relation to Mrs. Robinson from "The Graduate") has recruited some decent talent to Syracuse in the past couple of seasons, and that talent should get some field time. They will likely win more than 2 games in 2008, but it won't be much more even though they will be vastly improved. They will likely upset somebody, but the question will be whether it will save Greg's job. Their defense can't possibly get any worse, so I will call them to crawl out of the cellar, but not by much. Another 8+ loss season looms heavy in Orangeland.
Cincinnati: So how do I put one of my surprise teams from 2007 as being the 'surprise' loser of 2008? Simple. Ben Mauk was Mr. Everything for the Bearcats in 2007, and they enjoyed a +16 turnover margin last year. Sure, they may return 12 starters and a solid head coach in Brian Kelly, but I look for this to be a huge fall from grace for the Bearcats this year. Throw in a 13 game season, and the Bearcats could lose 10 or more games. In non-conference they play 4 road games, plus 3 road games in conference. Included in the non-conference road games are date #2 against Oklahoma, Akron, Marshall, and Hawaii. Now those may not seem daunting outside of Oklahoma, but road games against UConn, West Virginia, and Louisville in conference play should wear on these guys, and we can easily see at least 4 losses without batting a whisker. With the improvement of other teams in the conference, and a very much expected drop in the turnover ratio, the Bearcats should have a big fall in 2008. I hope I'm wrong because I like Mr. Kelly, and I like this team. I'm likely wrong in pegging them here, but I had to put somebody to finish last. Maybe I'm just asking for them to prove me as being REALLY wrong in '08? Either way, I don't expect much hoopla from Bearcat fans in 2008, and neither should you.
Yes, we've all heard the lame joke The Big 'L'East Conference. We've all bashed on this conference since the departure of Miami, Virginia Tech, and Boston College. No doubt the NCAA wanted to vanquish their BCS ties with this conference in 2005, when those teams all bolted to the ACC.
With that said, the remaining members, and those recently added, have performed quite well. Louisville, Rutgers, and West Virginia were serious BCS Championship game contenders until late in the season, and their BCS representative has won their last 2 BCS Bowl games with West Virginia in the 2005 Sugar against Georgia, and Louisville last year in the Orange Bowl against Wake Forest. Not to mention the Big East was crowned the Bowl Championship Series winners for having the best conference record in bowl games last year. The Big East also hails two teams again with serious National Title aspirations in West Virginia and Louisville.
The Big East also recognized the surge to power of Rutgers last year under the guidance of Greg Schiano, in one of the most remarkable turnarounds in NCAA College Football history. This year, look for the South Florida Bulls, and Pitt Panthers to make some noise and lately the Cincinnati Bearcats have proven that they aren't a pushover anymore.
Breakdown of Teams:
West Virginia: Rich Rodriguez has built a pretty good program in Morgantown, WV. Although he may be graduating more felons into the NFL than all other schools combined. (PacMan Jones, Chris Henry, Quincy Wilson). The Mountaineers are off of a big 11-2 campaign last year, and return two legitimate Heisman Trophy candidates in Steve Slaton and Patrick White. (Steve Slaton is my preseason pick to win the Heisman this year.) Rodriguez also returns 15 starters from last years squad, including 8 off of a respectable defense last year that should only improve from last years effort. Not to mention the Mountaineers implore a unique 3-3-5 defensive scheme in which they have a Bandit that lines up all over the field. They don't have many superstars on defense, but they also don't have many weaknesses either. Look for Ellis Lankster, a JUCO recruit, to step in and make an impact this year.
WIth an offense that is likely to score 40+ points a game this year, West Virginia can play with anybody. They will be the pre-season favorite by almost everyone, and should be placed in the top 5 Nationally before the season starts. They also bring in talented freshman Noel Devine, who amazingly, couldn't academically qualify to go anywhere else in the nation but Morgantown. It will be interesting to see if this guy stays eligible, and how?
Louisville: Goodbye Bobby Petrino, hello Steve Kragthorpe. Immediately one might say, "Here it goes, the Cards lost their head man, now they will go down the toilet." Not so fast my friend. Mr. Kragthorpe turned Tulsa University into a respectable Division I program in his 4 years at that program. He also has the best QB in the country in Brian Brohm. And along with Mr. Brohm he inherits possibly the best receiving corps in the nation led by Harry Douglas and Mario Urrutia (6' 6", 228 lbs, with 4.4 speed). It will take time replacing Kolby Smith at RB who emerged last year with the early season injury to Heisman Trophy candidate Michael Bush. They will use a running back by committee approach this year, and George Stripling and Anthony Allen are dependable and capable backs. They return a solid offensive line and like West Virginia, they are gonna put up some points this year. They will also probably post over 40+ ppg along with the Mountaineers. The Cards return 14 players, but only 6 on defense. They had a very good defense last year, and bring in some stud recruits who will play immediately. Look for Willie Williams at LB and Woodney Turenne (JUCO), to contribute immediately. If the Cards played West Virginia on a neutral field, or at home, I'd call for them to be conference champs. But with the coaching change, and the road trip to Morgantown, I'll have to side with the Mountaineers. But there is no doubt that this team is National Championship caliber, and should not be overlooked by anybody in the country.
South Florida: Jim Leavitt has done an outstanding job building the South Florida Bulls into a Diviision I football program. He has been there ever since this program was established in 1996. Yep, thats right, the Bulls have only been playing football for 11 years, and have been to 2 bowl games. Extremely impressive when you consider building a program from the ground up with teams within your own state such as Florida, Florida State, and Miami. Not to mention recruiting wars with Central Florida for all the leftovers from these powerhouses as well.
The Bulls return a gawdy 16 starters from a very respectable 9-4 ballclub that won their bowl game last year in convicing fashion 24-7 (although it was East Carolina). Matt Grothe is one of the best QB's you have never heard of. He had a tendency to make some mistakes last year, but he was only a freshman and was a big part in the upset of West Virginia last year. Expect big improvement from this kid in 2007. He has a reasonable set of receivers returning, and returns his entire offensive line as well. They also picked up a nice recruit in Mike Ford, the former Alabama recruit, who may well start at tailback for the Bulls this year, and add some needed ground game to their offense. The key this year for the Bulls will be if they can keep improving on a fairly solid defense. Only giving up 16.9 ppg last year is nice, but they had a tendency to give up big pass plays. Ben Moffitt is back to clog up the middle at linebacker, and with their entire secondary back, one would hope that they would shore up some of their secondary concerns. An early season game at Auburn may tell us a lot about this ballclub this year, and don't be shocked if these guys roll into Auburn and come away with a victory. They get both Louisville and West Virginia at home, and are a definite sleeper in this conference to unseat the big boys in West Virginia and Lousiville. A lot of people will remember the Louisville, West Virginia, and Rutgers squads from 2006 in The Big East, and overlooked a pretty good USF squad.
Rutgers: What can you say? The feel good story of College Football in 2006. Schiano enters his 7th season in rebuilding one of the worst football programs in NCAA football history. He returns 13 starters including RB Ray Rice, off a remarkable 1794 yard campaign last year. He also gets his heady QB Mike Teel back along with a stud receiver in Kenny Britt. Look for Britt to post some big numbers as he finished with 440 yards receiving in just 6 games. They will probably have the best O-iine in The Big East, and will be able to pound out some victories just like they did last year. The biggest stat to notice from last year, was that the Scarlet Knights ammassed a +11 turnover margin. One has to wonder if all those good breaks from last year will continue in 2007. Rutgers posted some impressive defensive statistics last year, but that was due in large part to some poor non-conference teams that they played. This year they pick up Maryland in the non-conference, and have Louisville on the road. The Knights have a solid chance at gaining 10 more wins this season, but will not be the surprise team this year that they were last year.
Pittsburgh: Dave Wannstedt enters his 3rd year at Pittsburgh, and has yet to get the Panthers to a bowl game coming out of the Big East conference. Pitt fans are getting a little restless, and he also loses his stud signal caller from last year, Tyler Palko. However, Dave has been recruiting nicely to PIttsburgh, and expect some of that recruiting to pay off this year. He returns 14 starters, including a solid RB in LaRod Stephens-Howling. Derek Kinder is a solid receiver, and look for stud recruit Pat Bostick to possibly lead this team at QB as a true freshman. The defense will be solid up front, but lose a ton at LB and defensive back. The Panthers may be better in '07 but with the emergence of South Florida and Rutgers it will be tough for them to get into the top half of this conference. If that happens, look for the Pitt faithful to start major grumblings, especially with Rutgers and South Florida having passed them in their conference after his arrival. Another .500 season or worse, and Mr. Wannstedt may be hitting up the unemployment line.
Cincinnati: The Bearcats finished a respectable 8-5 last year, and were bowl game winners as well. They play a feisty Oregon State team at home in non-conference and we'll get an early glimpse if these guys are for real this year. Brian Kelly enters his first season as head coach in Cincy, after replacing Mark Dantonio who left for Michigan State. They get Louisville and West Virginia at home, but would rather trade those two for road games and get Pittsburgh and South Florida instead. That calls for a tough conference slate, and another 8-5 season looks very doubtful. Look for a 6-6 or 5-6 record for the Bearcats this year.
Connecticut: After a successful 7-4 campaign in 2004, the Huskies 1st year in the Big East things were looking on their way up in Storrs, CT. However, they followed that season up with 5-6 and 4-8 seasons. They return 14 starters from last year, but are still very young, and lack the talent that the rest of this league has. They gave up 27.0 ppg last year, and that figure doesn't look like it will improve much, if any. They do add a nice JUCO pickup in Tyler Lorenzen at QB, and a pretty good tailback in Donald Brown is back. But like I already said, the talent gap is just too severe and with road games @ Pittsburgh, @ Virginia, @ Cincinnati, and @ West Virginia, as well as Louisville, Rutgers and South Florida, it is tough to make a case for this team to have a winnig record. Look for these guys to compete with Syracuse for conference bottom-feeders.
Syracuse: What in the holy Donovan McNabb is going on here? Greg Robinson enters his 3rd year at Syracuse, and things can only get better, right? Off of a 4-8 campaign the Orange only return 12 starters and lose the best player from last years team QB Perry Patterson, and their defensive stopper Kelvin Smith. Greg has also struggled to get any talent into Syracuse, and with a lack of any team speed, these guys will most likely have a worse season than last year. Add in a brutal schedule to start the season: Washington, @ Iowa, Illinois, @ Louisville, and the Orange will undoubtedly start off 0-4. There only saving grace from a possible winless season is a game @ Miami(OH), and Buffalo at home. If they don't win one of those games, it may be a short stay in Syracuse for Mr. Robinson who should have never left Texas.
Well that is The Big East for 2007. All in all, a conference wth 8 teams, and only 2 duds. With the emergence of South Florida and Rutgers, this conference is on the up and up, and with West Virginia and Louisville being serious National Title contenders, they are still a worthy BCS conference.
My picks for how they will finish:
1. West Virginia 2. Louisville 3. South Florida t4. Rutgers t4. Cincinnati t4. Pittsburgh 7. Connecticut 8. Syracuse
If you are rooting against this conference, like almost everyone was last year, note West Virginia's game @ Maryland, and Louisville's tangles @ NC State and Utah. If they don't lose those games, it is very likely that one of these teams goes undefeated.
