The stage is set.  The contenders have put their hats into the proverbial ring, and Big Brown is on the brink of being only the 12th contender in horse racing history to capture the elusive Triple Crown.

For us horse racing officiandos, it doesn't get much better than this.

I'm sure you are all aware of the Big Brown story.  Lightly raced, dominant in all his victories, and an extremely confident trainer and jockey in his stable. 

What you may not know is the incredible amount of history that is leaning AGAINST Big Brown to actually accomplish this amazing feat.  What is the history going against him you ask?

Well here it is:

• First off, there have been 134 Preakness Stakes, 135 Kentucky Derby's, and soon to be on Saturday, 140 Belmont Stakes ever raced.
• That means, collectively, there could have only been 134 times a horse could have won a Triple Crown. 
• Only 29, and now 30, have ever had the chance in the final leg to complete the Triple Crown Trifecta.  Only 11 have been successful thus far.
• Of the 18 who have failed before Big Brown, there are some huge names in horse racing lore:  Burgoo King, Tim Tam, Northern Dancer, Majestic Prince, Spectacular Bid, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, and Real Quiet.  The most spectacular............. is likely.............. Spectacular Bid as he finished his racing career with 30 races in which he won 26, finished 2nd twice, and 3rd once. 
•  Rick Dutrow Jr., BIg Brown's trainer, had never won a Triple Crown race until this year. 
• Kent Desormeaux, the jockey, has won the Kentucky Derby 3 times, the Preakness twice, and the Belmont ZERO times.
• Oddly enough, in 1998, Kent Desormeaux was the jockey of the great horse Real Quiet.  Real Quiet was on the verge of winning the elusive Triple Crown, to only get beat by a NOSE in the Belmont Stakes by Victory Gallop.  The closest that horse has truly came to winning the elusive Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978.

So if Big Brown is to achieve this amazing feat, he has some definite historical trends going against him on Saturday.  May we all root that he achieves this great task. 

But......there is always a but.  I'll be wagering AGAINST him from doing just that.

 

 

 

 

1.  Big Brown (2-5):  The chalk, the favorite, everything you can say.  BUT..... is he ready for greatness?

2.  Guadacanal (50-1):  Has yet to break his maiden?  And he just came off of a career best Beyer of 82?  He is the only horse in the race to have ran a mile and half, but that was on turf and he obviously didn't win anyway.  Has ran 5 times in his lifetime, finished 2nd  twice, and third once.  He was beaten by Tizzy.  You know who Tizzy is?  Should be 100-1 or better come post time.

3.  Macho Again (20-1):  Believe it or not, this horse was actually 'closing' on Big Brown in the Preakness.  His 2nd place finish is respectable, but he was still beaten badly  by 5 1/2 lengths by the big time favorite.  The addition of Casino Drive makes him somewhat playable. 

4.  Denis of Cork (12-1):  Another closer, in a closer rich race.  The addition of Da' Tara could be his best friend in keeping an honest pace up front.    This extremely well bred and talented horse could stew the pot if the first half mile is ran at  :47 or so.    Bet to win, or don't bet at all. 

5.  Casino Drive: (7-2):  The supposed biggest contender to Big Brown has only ran two races coming into the Belmont.  He is also a half sibling to the past two winners of the Belmont in Jazil and Rags to Riches.  The win in the Peter Pan Stakes was nice, but it was against even weaker opponents than Big Brown has faced, and his win was not nearly as dominant.  On the flip side, he has 'freak' talk much like Curlin of last year.  Has to be heavily considered on any ticket.

6.  Da' Tara: (30-1):  Looks like this will be the early pace of the race.  Big Brown beat this guy by 23 plus lengths in the Florida Derby, as he didn't fire.  His last 2 races however showed huge improvement, and we should fully expect this horse to fire to the front and press the pace.  Problem is, Big Brown and company should not be scared of this entrant in the least.  At a mile and a half, this simply looks to be the rabbit, and if he can last on top farther than a mile and some change, it could possibly 'start' to make it very interesting.   

7.  Tale of Ekati: (16-1):  The horse that everyone has been waiting to fire a big one is still maintaining his connections with that same hope.   Finished 4th in the Derby, but he was WAY back.  Hasn't raced since.  Thus he should be fresh, and from reports from the barn and alike, this horse should be as ready as ever to challenge.  Problem is, do you really think he can improve by 11 lenghts in which he faded in the Derby anyway?  Tough to like.

8.  Anak Nakal: (33-1): Another talented horse, much like Tale of Ekati, that people are waiting for to burst upon the scene.  After winning his maiden at 17 to 1, this guy has ran in nothing but graded stakes races.  Nick Zito in his barn is a plus, and for him to take another chance with him is appealing since he trained the 36-1 shot Birdstone to victory over Smarty Jones a few years ago.  Biggest problem?  He isn't training all that well, and he runs very evenly in the end.  Tough to make a play on him other than the connections.  Put in the bottom end of exotics only. 

9.  Ready's Echo: (40-1):  Here is your shot.  Much like Macho Again was closing on Big Brown in The Preakness, this guy was making a HUGE move on Casino in the Peter Pan.  He finished a distant 6 and 1/4 lengths behind Casino in that one, but he looked to have the best stride of late in that one as well.  His Beyers are improving in every race and Todd Pletcher in the barn is very intriguing.  This IS your longshot contender. 

10.  Icabad Crane: (35-1):  Another deep closer in a field of deep closers.  The biggest disclaimer was that after he took over 2nd in the Preakness he faltered down the stretch to finish 3rd behind Macho Again.   He is improving every race, and his falter down the stretch of the Preakness may just be the seasoning that this lightly raced colt needed.  At 35-1, he is your other bomb to throw on top, or for Exacta greatness.

In the end, this is how I see it:

In the 1st half mile we see an evenly paced field with Da'Tara out to a 3 or 4 length lead.  he will run a :47 and some change as he will try to steal the race on top.  Nearing 6 furlongs, we should expect Casino and/or Big Brown start to reel in Da'Tara.  If the pace is at 1:12 or faster, be scared if you are a Big Brown fan.  However, I see it at 1:12:2 to 1:13:4.  And if it is 1:13 or better it will simply be a 2 horse race with Big Brown and Casino Drive.  But what my gut tells me is that Desormeaux has ridden Casino and Big Brown before, and he will 'press' Big Brown for the 1st time in his career this early before a finish line.  He has huge respect for Casino.  In his mind I truly believe that if he can put Casino away the race is over.  Such is the expectation.  At the mile pole with Big Brown putting Casino away, look for Ready's Echo, Icabad Crane, and Denis of Cork start to make their move.  If Big Brown crosses the mile pole at a time of 1:35 to 1:36, he is likely in trouble.  I figure it to be around 1:36 due to the Casino influence.  Then we will see what he has. And it is THEN the racing begins.  The stretch at The Belmont is long and grueling.  Smarty Jones came into that same stretch a few years ago 3 lengths ahead, and the crowd cheering, only to get lapped by a late charging Birdstone.   Look for either Ready's Echo or Denis of Cork to make a serious run at Big Brown late, and maybe even both.   And at the finish line we have..........

Denis of Cork, followed by Big Brown, followed by Ready's Echo.  If you are looking for the Superfecta, throw in Icabad Crane or Tale of Ekati in the 4 spot. 

Then again, Casino Drive will actually put them all away.  And unfortunately stave off yet another Triple Crown contender.  Just slide in Casino for Big Brown, and then substitute Casino finishing the task at hand.  Big Brown will finish a disappointing 4th behind, Casino, Denis, and Ready's. 

Man.  I hope I'm wrong

What is the official color of summer you ask?  Brown.  As in Big Brown. 

In yesterday's Preakness Stakes, Big Brown left little doubt as to who was the best horse in the race.  Winning by a convincing 5 1/4 lengths, Big Brown breezed home under the guidance of jockey Kent Desormeaux and his single urging hand ride.  I'm sure PETA people will be very happy to know that Mr. Desormeaux never used his whip in bringing Big Brown home to victory in one of the more dominating victories in the history of the Preakness Stakes.  If urged, it was readily apparent that Big Brown could have ran a faster time if he were challenged.  But, in itself, the finishing time of 1:54.80 is very comparable to some of the great horses of lore.  Seatle Slew, Secretariat, and Affirmed all ran the Preakness in 1:54:2/5s.  Spectacular Bid in 1:54:3/5s and the great Sunday Silence in 1:53: 4/5s.  More importantly his winning time is faster than any previous horse since  Real Quiet's  time of 1:54.75 in 1998.   

Now, only the Belmont Stakes is in wait to see if  Big Brown is good enough to capture the elusive Triple Crown.  A title that has evaded  horse racing for the last 30 years.  From the looks of the 1st two legs, it merely looks like the Belmont will be a ceremonial romp for this 3 Year Old Derby and now Preakness Champion.

But..........

There is another horse that maybe you haven't heard of just yet.  A horse by the name of Casino Drive has splashed onto the scene with his recent, and also dominant victory in the Peter Pan Stakes on May 10th at Belmont Park.  Coincidentally the same track the Belmont Stakes will be run on as well. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pictured:  Casino Drive winning the Peter Pan Stakes with Kent Desormeaux on board.

Also noteworthy is that  Kent Desormeaux was the jockey for both of these horses during their recent blow out victories and according to Desormeaux Casino Drive is Big Brown's biggest competition in the Belmont Stakes. 

I don't think I can argue. 

The breeding on Casino Drive is spectacular with the sire being Mineshaft, and the mare being Better Than Honour.  But more importantly, Casino Drive is a sibling of the last two Belmont winners in Jazil and Rags to Riches who were both offspring of Better Than Honour..  By the mere looks of the Peter Pan victory and breeding alone, Casino Drive is the biggest challenger that Big Brown will have faced in his bid for the elusive Triple Crown.  

Another ring to throw into the fire is that Casino Drive does not have American connections.  He was purchased at Keeneland in their September auction in 2006.  From there he was quickly shipped to Japan by his owner Hidetoshi Yamamoto.  Once in Japan, Hidetoshi quickly threw over the reins of Casino Drive to be trained by Kazuo Fujisawa, who is one of the best trainers in Japan, if not the best.  For many years the Japanese have been purchasing horses in America in an effort to build their 'bloodlines' amongst their thoroughbred industry.  They have yet to produce a horse that can compete with the great American or European horses, but it hasn't been due to lack of effort.  Many princes from Saudi Arabia have been doing the same as well.  We have simply been waiting for these 'hot spots' in breeding to start producing some champions of their own as they have been long-standing purchasers of top-end colts in America for quite some time.  Casino Drive looks like the best that they have yet to offer.  And we should fully expect this trend to continue in the years to come. 

Other challengers to Big Brown's Triple Crown pursuit?  Behindatthebar is likely the best colt in America that has yet to test his wares against him.  He is also a deep closer that has ran into some health problems that have kept him out of both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness.  It is very likely that Pletcher will take a run at the Belmont to challenge Big Brown.  Ready's Echo ran a reasonable race in finishing 3rd to Casino Drive in the Peter Pan Stakes.  He was also the only horse left that was actually closing on the eventual winner nearing the finish line.  The extra distance should do him some good.  Icabad Crane ran into some traffic in the Preakness but finished a respectalbe 3rd, while Macho Again was closing somewhat in his 2nd place finish yesterday as well.  And finally, another filly.  Proud Spell is likely the best 3 year old filly in the country.  And yes that includes a now departed Eight Belles.  Her win in the Kentucky Oaks was very impressive on a sloppy track, and she would be fresh if asked to run in the Belmont.  One only has to look back to last year and notice that a filly took the boys down at the vaunted mile and a half distance.  This filly may be as good or better than Rags to Riches.   

Another noteworthy aspect is that Casino Drive will be making only his 3rd start in his career when he takes on Big Brown in the Belmont Stakes.  Noteworthy since his owner and trainer felt he 'bounced' a bit in his win in the Peter Pan Stakes but still ran a 101 Beyer speed figure.  Something that no horse other than ####ego had produced of all the challengers in the Preakness yesterday.  It was Big Brown's 3rd lifetime start that really put him on the radar as the best 3 year old in the country.  His wide sweeping 5 length victory in the Tampa Bay Derby served notice that this was the colt to beat in Kentucky. 

Big Brown has yet to run a bad race.  Casino Drive possibly had his 'supposed' clunker in the Peter Pan, and still ran a very respectable Beyer Speed Figure.  IF Big Brown were to bounce, Casino Drive is likely the 'bouncee'.  The Belmont Stakes has shattered the dreams of 18 other colts who have headed to the Belmont with the elusive Triple Crown in their sites.  Only 11 out of the possible 29 horses who have started the Belmont Stakes have won the race to complete the Triple Crown trifecta. 

The mile and a half distance that the Belmont Stakes is run at is truly the test of a champion.  Especially when any Triple Crown hopeful will be running in this race for the 3rd time in as few as 5 weeks.  Elite horses rarely run more than once a month, and most times around 4 to 8 times during any calendar year.  To run 3 times in 5 weeks is a very daunting task indeed, and is likely the main reason why there have only been 11 horses who have ever accomplished this incredible feat.

Casino Drive will have had 4 weeks rest coming into the Belmont.  Big Brown will be off of 3 weeks rest, in which he ran a previous race 2 weeks before that in the Kentucky Derby.  There will not be another horse in the race with as many races in such a short period of time as Big Brown in the Belmont.  Heck, only 1 trainer felt their horse was fresh or ready enough after the Derby to challenge Big Brown in the Preakness.  And we all saw how badly ####ego faded yesterday.  He will be facing the freshest of challengers, in which many of them will be well-equipped to handle the mile and half distance that the Belmont offers.  Big Brown also has had a history of foot problems.  It severely hampered his 2 year old campaign, and delayed the start to his 3 year old campaign.  In fact, it is such a concern for Dutrow that he wears special shoes to protect his very sensitive hooves/feet.  It would not be at all that shocking if  Big Brown were to be at less than 100% when the gates open for the Belmont.  And fingers crossed, an ailment that would keep from racing at all.

But such is the vaunted trail of the Triple Crown.   

But if we have learned anything in the 1st 2 races of the Triple Crown, Big Brown may not need his best effort to win and he has yet to be pushed to see what he truly has left in the tank.  Past contenders in War Emblem, Funny Cide, Charasmatic and Smarty Jones were all front-runners who had serious questions regarding the mile and a half distance.  They also were 'lumbering' down the stretch in their victories in the Preakness after the mile and a quarter Kentucky Derby test.  You will be hard pressed to find a horse racing afficianodo question Big Brown's distance limitations coming into this year's Belmont. 

The biggest question is likely the competition that Big Brown has ran against.  Without a doubt this is the weakest crop of 3 year olds that I have ever witnessed participate in this years Triple Crown.  There are so few contenders who have ever ran a career Beyer speed figure of 100.  Normally, you would find over half of the contestants in any Triple Crown race with those credentials.  Along with the sporting of multiple wins and respectable times.  We just haven't seen that this year outside of Big Brown.  Most naysayers to Big Brown's spectacular runs in the Derby and Preakness will point to these well-founded arguments.  The competition has been weak.  Nobody can really argue against that.

But when the gates open for the Belmont, Big Brown will be facing at least 1 horse that is better than any he has faced yet in his career.  And likely 3, with Behindatthebar and Kentucky Oaks winner Proud Spell along with Casino Drive.  All the hype surrounding Eight Belles is good, but Proud Spell is widely recognized as the best 3 year old filly this year.  And after Rags to Riches win in last years Belmont, don't put it past her to win it this year. 

The stage is set.  And the question remains.  Is Big Brown that good?  Can he beat a fresher horse in Casino Drive?  Can he beat an EXTREMELY fresh colt in Behindatthebar?  And, maybe best of all.  Can he hold off another filly?  A filly, in Proud Spell, that most think is/was better than Eight Belles?