Entering my personal rankings as the 2nd best conference coming into the 2008 season, the Big 12 has a lot of good things to boast about. At the end of the 2007 season they had 4 teams ranked in the final top 10 rankings. They had 2 teams that played in BCS bowl games. And they had 3 teams with serious National Championship considerations nearing the last 2 weeks of the 2007 season.
But........there is always a but. The conference champion, Oklahoma, got absolutely manhandled by West Virginia in the Fiesta Bowl. More importantly, as a collective entity, no one allowed more points in conference play than the Big 12. Not the Sun Belt, not Conference USA, not the WAC, not the MAC, not the MWC. The Big 12 held the 'distincition' of being the highest scoring conference in all the land last year.
When all was said and done, the Big 12 looked more like the 'old' WAC, than it did the stodgy days of the Big 8 and Big 12 defensive lore. Sure, the Big 12 may be loaded offensively, but it has no excuses for inter-conference scores like this:
Many of these scores topped conference basketball final outcomes.
If you are looking for defense, well...... turn off your TV if a Big 12 game is on. The vaunted spread offense, west coast offense, and tons of speed have taken over. Keep your D and fence signs at home. They just aren't needed.
So what does the Big 12 have in store for 2008? Unfortunately for us defensive guru's, the offenses will likely rule again. All told, every team other than bottom feeding Iowa State has a QB returning with significant starting time. If you enjoy offense, turn on the Big 12 game of the week in 2008. The players may well be donning flags instead of pads, helmets, and mouthpieces.
My conference rankings:
North:
1. Missouri
2. Colorado
3. Kansas
4. Nebraska
5. Kansas State
6. Iowa State
South:
1. Oklahoma
2. Texas Tech
3. Texas
4. Oklahoma State
5. Texas A&M
6. Baylor
North
Missouri: In 2007, the Tigers enjoyed one of their most fruitful seasons in the entire history of their program. 12-2 and a final ranking of #4. With 14 starters returning, the Tigers should be considered serious Big 12 and National Title contenders.
On offense, Heisman Trophy finalist, and 1st Team All-Big 12 QB Chase Daniel returns. Alongside Chase is do-everything WR Jeremy Maclin; the Big 12's best impression of Percy Harvin. Martin Rucker (TE), and Will Franklin (WR), may be gone, but Chase Coffman (TE), and a plethora of quality receivers return. Including Danario Alexander and Tommy Saunders and the aforementioned Jeremy Maclin. All told, the Tigers will likely have an even better receiving unit than the one they enjoyed last year. One of their problems on offense is to replace Tony Temple at RB. As great as Tony was at times last year, he was far from being consistent week in and week out. Returning at RB is Derrick Washington and Jimmy Jackson. Washington looks to be far more talented than Temple, and Jackson is a solid backup. Look for a break-out year from Washington, and a more consistent output at RB. On the offensive line, the Tigers return a solid core. They aren't great, but in the wide open Tiger offense they just need to get in front of people. That they can do. Expect the Tiger O to at least replicate the 40 ppg output from last year, and likely exceed that number. This will be one of the most explosive offenses in the entire country.
On defense is where the Tigers will either contend for Big 12 supremacy and a possible National Championship, or be another also-ran. With 8 starters returning, including William Moore, Sean Weatherspoon, Ziggy Hood, and Stryker Sulak, the Tigers have a very solid core. William Moore is one of the best safeties in the country, and Sean Weatherspoon is one of the best LB's in the entire Big 12. Look for Andy Maples at DT, Luke Lambert at LB, and Justin Garret at safety to have solid break-out years for the Tigers on defense. All told, Missouri will have one of the better stop units in the entire Big 12. Maybe even nationally.
As much as it pains me to say it, Missouri is the best team in the Big 12 North. Question is: "Can they play with the big boys?". History hasn't been kind to the Tigers. Last year was the 1st time that they played in the Big 12 Championship game. Last year was the 12th time the Big 12 Championship game was played. Missouri has never won a National Championship, and has not won or shared a conference championship since 1960. Yep. 1960. They have also never beaten Oklahoma or Texas since the inception of the Big 12. Nor have they beaten Nebraska, in Nebraska, since 1978. If the Tigers are to be serious contenders on the National landscape, then they have some serious history and trends to overcome. They may well be the rep out of the North, but anything more than that is very unlikely. History has a strong sense of repeating itself. Taking history into consideration, the Tigers play @ Nebraska and @ Texas. They also play Illinois in the non-conference. The Tigers will be very good. But I doubt that they will be great. Great as in National Title contenders.
Colorado: Newsflash. Dan Hawkins can coach. Not that you didn't know that, but Mr. Hawkins looks to be on his way of returning the Buffs to their late '80's and early '90's glory years. In 2007 Mr. Hawkins guided the Buffs to a 6-7 season. Not good? Well when you consider they were 2-10 the year before you can appreciate the job he did last year. He also beat Oklahoma and Texas Tech.
All told, this may be a bit of a stretch putting the Buffaloes this high. The schedule is daunting. Back to back games against West Virginia and Florida State highlight their non-conference schedule, and they also play conference games against Texas, @ Kansas, @ Missouri, @ Texas A&M, and @ Nebraska. The West Virginia, Florida State, Texas, and Kansas gauntlet of straight games starting on September 18th could definitely spell their doom. But this is a vastly improving team.
On offense, coach's son, and heady QB Cody Hawkins returns. Save your comments. The kid can play. As a freshman he threw for 3,015 yards, 22 TD's, and 17 int's. He will be much better in '08. Their recievers are also very underrated as well. Scotty McKnight and Josh Smith are solid Big 12 players. Also look for Patrick Williams to have a break-out season in 2008. The addition of highly recruited Markques Simas won't hurt much either. Then we have the RB. Hugh Charles is gone. He was a solid Big 12 RB. But what the Buffs bring to the table is one of the best RB recruits in the nation. Darrell Scott. Remember that name. He will likely be one of the biggest break-out stars in the entire country. Coming in as a true freshman, Mr. Scott was the #1 overall rated RB in the country. He has size, speed, and vision. And he will unveil his talents in Boulder this fall.
The offensive line is the biggest concern. Talented? Yes. Inexperienced? Yes as well. Two starters return, including future AA Ryan Miller, but the Buffs need this unit to gel, and gel quickly in '08 if they are to give elite teams some fits. Offensively, this is without a doubt their biggest concern.
On defense the Buffs return 8 starters including AA candidate George Hypolite at DT. Unfortunately they lose do-everything LB Jordan Dizon. The AA and 1st team All-Big 12 LB only had 173 tackles last year. Yes, you read that correctly. ONE HUNDRED AND SEVENTY-THREE. That type of production can not, and will not be replaced. Jeff Smart and Brad Jones are decent LB's but are a far stretch from being Mr. Dizon. Look for JUCO recruit Shaun Mohler to make a big impact in the LB corps for CU in '98. Likely he will be the best of the bunch. The biggest improvement on the entire team will be the play of the Buff's secondary. Sure, they lose all-conference performer Terrence Wheatlely, but they also return one of the best safety combo's in the conference in Daniel #### and Ryan Walters. The solid front 4 will also help this unit into becoming one of the Big 12's best secondaries.
If Colorado is to contend for a Big 12 North 'title' they will definitely need some good things to happen. But Hawkins has already provided some minor miracles since his arrival in Boulder, and we should expect that streak to continue. Playing one of the toughest schedules in the country will be a hindrance, but will also be a blessing as well. This team will gain some early toughness, and will be a tough out for anyone come season's end. No doubt this a risky pick being this high in the Big 12 North, but Hawkins showed last year that he can get an inexperienced team up and ready to play. A definite sleeper for Big 12 supremacy.
Kansas: The best coaching job in the entire country has been performed in Lawrence, KS over the past 6 years. Mark Mangino has built a conference also-ran into a Big 12 contender. Don't think for a minute that this was done overnight. He has done it the right way. Solid recruiting, solid coaching, and a stay the course attitude has resurrected one of the worst programs in NCAA history into legitimate contenders.
Sure, go ahead, bag on KU's schedule from last year. But keep in mind this has been one of the worst programs EVER in College Football over the last 50 years. Scheduling SE Louisiana, Florida International, andToledo is a mainstay for 'building' programs. Kansas should not be excluded. They just happenned to hit their stride a bit earlier than even they expected last year. This year they play some cream-puffs as well in Florida International, Louisiana Tech, and Sam Houston State. But...... they do play South Florida on the road. A definite upgrade.
Unfortunately for the Hawks, they also get the bullies from the South on their schedule. Games @ Oklahoma, vs. Texas, and vs. Texas Tech will definitely test their new found success. Throw in contests @ Nebraska, vs. Colorado, and vs. Missouri and this season's schedule is a HUGE upgrade.
On offense they return feel-good story Todd Reesing at QB. From oblivion to greatness can sum up his 2007 season. Before the season started Mr. Reesing was the 'backup' QB vying for the starting job against incumbent Kerry Meier. He won the job in August. The rest is...... well, KU history. In 2008 he is THE guy. He will have solid targets to throw to in Dezman Briscoe and Dexton Fields. They lose their 'stud' WR in Marcus Henry, but we should definitely see Briscoe or Fields take over that role. The biggest loss will be TE Derek Fine. A solid blocker and good pass-catching TE is hard to replace. They just don't have anybody on hand to fill his shoes. The offensive line is another story. The 'core' of the Center and Guards returns. But they will have to replace the early NFL departure of Anthony Collins at LT. The best offensive lineman to roll through KU for well over 2 decades. That is a big concern, especially when KU is looking to replace him with a lightly recruited redshirt freshman.
On defense is where the 'Hawks will earn their gravy in '08. They return 9 starters from one of the best stop units in the entire country from last year. Including one of the most undervalued LB units wiht Mike Rivera, Joe Mortensen, and James Holt. Look for the most athletic of the bunch, Holt, to have a big season in 2008. Up front they lose AA and NFL'er James McClinton at DT. That won't be replaced and neither will all-everything CB Aqib Talib. Aqib was the most talented player that KU has had since Gale Sayers was carrying the rock in Lawrence. He will not be replaced. However, Chris Harris is another solid lock-down CB, and the safety combo of Darrell Stuckey and Justin Thornton may be the best in the Big 12. Hard to say it, but the defense, even with 9 starters returning will likely be a notch lower than the unit we say in '07. Throw in the tougher schedule and this unit will be much more tested than they were last year as well. If KU is to repeat last year's success, they must have one of the best defenses in the country. That just isn't likely.
Overall, KU will be good again. But they will be far from the team/season they were a year ago. After a 12-1 campaign, it is hard to say that the Hawks should be grateful for a bowl game in the next. But that is the reality entering 2008. A sub .500 conference record is looming. This is the year that will make or break Kansas as they try to build towards Big 12 greatness. Are they for real? We will see.
Nebraska: This hurts. It hurts bad. Pegging my 'Skers as 4th in the Big 12 North is the last thing I thought that I would believe in my entire life. But such is the downfall of one of the proudest and most storied programs in the history of College Football.
Last year, records were broken. Not the records that you would like to be recognized for: Worst defense in the history of Nebraska football. Most points given up in a single game. Worst record in over 50 years. Worst coached team in the entire nation.
Wiping a tear from my eye in recollection, I must look forward to the 2008 season. The Bo Pelini era at Nebraska has begun. The bevy of Husker fans are extremely excited that this is the dawn of a new age. A new age that will bridge the gap in Husker-dom to the glory years of the '90's. Let's just say I don't quite have the same enthusiasm as my Husker brethren.
Last year many of my Husker faithful were predicting 10-2 seasons and National Championsip aspirations. I was thinking 8 or 9 wins would be a good season. A 5-7 disaster was nothing anybody expected. But such are the expectations in Lincoln, NE. In 2008 the Huskers are just looking for respect. The respect that 40 years of winning football teams earned. The respect that 5 National Championships garnered. The respect that was given away in one single year.
On offense the Huskers return Joe Ganz at QB. In limited duty, and late season greatness, Mr. Ganz threw for 1,435 yards and 16 TD's. In roughly 4 games mind you. Question is whether he can handle the pressure of knowing he is 'the' guy. At RB is the best situation. Returning is do-everything, all-everything, Marlon Lucky. Run, catch, pass, block, Marlon can do it all. The most underrated RB in the entire country. At WR, the Huskers have a bit of a problem. Gone is go to guy Maurice Purify. Along with him departs Terrence Nunn and Frantz Hardy. But..... the Huskers do return some of the most talented WR's they have ever had in the history of the program. Nate Swift will be solid, but look for either Niles Paul or Menelik Holt to have a big year in '08. Also look for speedster Curenski Gilleylen to show up as well. He is the game-breaking speed at WR that the Huskers have been looking for since moving to a more progressive offensive attack. Throw into the mix one of the best offensive lines in the Big 12 and the Huskers have an attack that can score.
On defense? Where do you start? Thankfully, Bo Ruud, Cory McKeon, Cortney Grixby and Tierre Green are gone. Last year Nebraska was the worst defense in all of BCS football. Ranking 112th in total defense and 114th in scoring defense the Huskers set records that I defer to mention. The vaunted 'Blackshirt' defense gave up on AVERAGE 477 yards per game and 38 points per game. Included in the disaster was a gouging 5.2 YPC (Yards Per Carry) given up by the sieve-like 'D' that lived in Lincoln, NE last year. Will the defense get better in '08? No doubts. Your mother could coach a better D this year. Talent is not lacking on the defensive side of the ball. Ndamukong Suh can be one of the best DT's in the country. Barry Turner can be one of the best DE's in the Big 12. Armando Murillo and Larry Asante are two of the more talented DB's in the Big 12. They also have a bevy of talented, but yet unproven youngsters to bring some new life to an obviously depleted unit. This unit will get better, mainly because it can't get any worse. Bo Pelini and crew will make this defense better, and likley one of the middle tier stop units in the Big 12. Large aspirations? Sure. But there is too much talent to believe otherwise.
All said and done, the Huskers should expect to go bowling in 2008. Contending for the Big 12 North? There is a shot. No doubt there is enough talent to get it done, plus they get Missouri and Kansas at home. But any bowl game would be greatly appreciated in Lincoln. And that should be the expectation. Contending for conference and national championships are now secondary in Nebraska. Competing on a weekly basis is now the priority.
Kansas State:Ron Prince enters his 3rd year as head coach at K-State. In his first two years he has guided the Wildcats to an overall 12-13 record and one bowl game in which they were manhandled by Rutgers 37-10. The biggest question in Manhattan is whether the 'Cats are getting any better?
In the 2008 recruiting season, Mr. Prince and company have brought in 19 Junior College transfers. Yes. You read that correctly. NINETEEN. Out of a class of 32, Mr. Prince obviously has felt the need that their depth and talent is severely lacking. I can't doubt that. But to recruit 19 JUCO transfers screams that your are trying to make a fix. OR, you are trying to capitalize on the talents of JUNIOR QB Josh Freeman, and then skate town with a better coaching offer IF successful.
I'll side with the last. Josh Freeman is one of the most talented, and 'raw' players in the entire country. He isn't getting the proper coaching at K-State, that I can guarantee you. At 6'6" and 250 pounds, he has skills very reminiscent of former LSU QB JaMarcus Russell. Although, he may be better. Problem for Josh though is that he is at K-State and has zero supporting cast.
On offense the 'Cats return Leon Patton at RB. But he is an average RB in the Big 12. They return 4 starting offensive lineman, but they also had Josh running for his life last year. Should we expect anything less this year? The addition of Aubrey Quarles (JUCO) will be nice at WR, but the loss of Jordy Nelson will be hard to replace. Deon Murphy is good, but far from great. If the 'Cats are to reproduce the 35+ PPG they did last year, they will need some WR's to step up, and they will need Josh to be 'the' man. Josh is great, I seriously question everthing and everybody else.
On defense the 'Cats return 5 starters. Ian Campbell is back at DE, and Gary Chandler is back at CB. Other than that, it is hard to get excited about the K-State D. Look for JUCO's in Grant Valentine and Ulla Pomele to make some serious noise at LB for the Wildcats. If they don't this unit will be hurting.
All told, this very much looks like a 'dine and dash' experiment by Ron Prince. He has 2 years left with Josh Freeman, and he will try to make the most of it with the influx of JUCO's to try and make a run. Very unlikely his 'experiment' will come to fruition. Look for Ron to be looking for a new job by 2010.
Iowa State:Gene Chizik will turn this team around. It will just take some time. With 14 starters returning from the best coached team in the conference, it is tough to put them in the 6 hole in the North. Honestly, it is. If you can say anything about Iowa State in 2007, they played hard. They weren't good, but they played hard. That is coaching.
On offense they return a decent but not great OL. What can you expect at ISU? But for Cyclone fans, they will get to ring in the Austen Arnaud legacy at QB. He has some serious promise of being very good. He also has one of the best and deepest tandem of RB's in the BIg 12. JJ Bass, Alexander Robinson, and Jason Scales are all very serviceable. Todd Blythe is gone at WR, but Marquis Hamilton is more talented anyway. Look for RJ Sumrall to have a big year in his senior season for the 'Clones at WR.
On defense, well..... they return 7 starters? Is that good enough? This is where ISU needs to improve the most. Talent is severely lacking. There is not a single player that has the ability to make All-Conference consideration. But, Chizik is a defensive guy, and he will get these guys to play hard again. Look for Leonard Johnson, a true freshman at DB, to make a bit of a splash in the Cyclone secondry in 2008.
All told, this is a rebuilding year in Ames, Iowa. Chizik will get this team to eventually compete on a week in and week out basis in the Big 12. It just won't happen in 2008.
South
Oklahoma: The two-time defending Big 12 Champs are loaded for bear in 2008. But....... they have some serious black-eyes to cover up. In their last 5 bowl games they are 1-4, with their lone victory over Oregon in a hard fought 17-14 victory. Otherwise the Sooners have been routinely manhandled in January. Included in those losses are a 21-14 loss to eventual BCS Champion LSU in 2003, the Orange Bowl disaster against USC in '04 in which they were handed their lunch in 55-19 type fashion, and last year, the most humbling of them all, a 48-28 wipeout loss to West Virginia. Missed in this equation is the other 'disaster' in a loss to Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl after the '06 season.
The biggest and proudest member of the Big 12 has some serious questions to answer in 2008. How good are you? And for that matter, if you are the dominant team in the Big 12, how good IS the Big 12?
On offense they return the leadership of Sam Bradford at QB. Last year he only led the nation in QB efficiency ratings. 36 TD's and only 8 INT's will lead to those kind of scores. Without a great arm, Sam relies on schemes, protection, and great receivers. Fortunately he has them all. Plus one of the most dynamic RB's in the country. Last year I gave you a warm welcome and preview to one of the most talented players in all the nation: DeMarco Murray. Most didn't even know who this kid was. If you don't know who he is now, let me re-introduce the most explosive player in ALL of College Football. DeMarco Murray. Percy Harvin? Jeremy Maclin? Noel Devine? Michael Crabtree? Tim Tebow? Pat White? Chris Wells? No, No, No, No, No, No, and No. The most electric and most exciting player in all of College Football IS DeMarco Murray. If he can stay healthy. Do you think Reggie Bush was good? DeMarco is faster, quicker, and more skilled. Lofty words you ask? Sure. Hard to believe, but DeMarco has better 'one-step' speed than Reggie could ever ask for.
The offensive line is loaded. Likely the best in the country. Only Ohio State can bark. Jermaine Gresham is the 2nd best pass-catching TE in the country, and Juaquin Iglesias and Manuel Johnson will more than make for the loss of Malcolm Kelly. Throw in the possibilities of Quentin Chaney living up to the hype and this is a better offense than Missouri.
On defense, they have the best DL in the Big 12. Auston English will be an All-American, and look for DeMarcus Granger and Gerald McCoy to be the best DT tandem in all of College Football. At LB Ryan Reynolds will get better, but look for Austin Box to shine in '08. In the secondary, Nic Harris is solid. This is the weakest link in the Sooner's chain. But like always, they will be able to fit enough of the talented recruting pieces to cover up for the loss of Reggie Smith. The biggest problem is replacing stalwarts Curtis Lofton(LB) and DJ Wolfe(S). Talented guys are behind them, but these guys were pretty special. All told, we should expect this to be one of the premier stop units in the entire country. Even with the losses. The front 4 are just too special to think otherwise.
In the end, the Sooners should be considered on the very short list of National Title contenders once again. They will be favored in every game this year. Not many teams will have that luxury. If DeMarco Murray has a monster season like I expect, look for OU to play Ohio State for all the marbles in early January.
Texas Tech: The Red Raiders are on track for a monster 2008 campaign. Mad man Mike Leach has guided the Red-Gun attack into the stratosphere of the most feared offense in the entire country. If it was possible, Mike would split out 9 receivers.
Man-to-man, one-on-one, in 'space', call it what you want but Tech capitalizes on this theory more than any team in the nation (OK, maybe June Jones has a beef.). Michael Crabtree didn't catch 134 passes for 1,932 yards and 22 TD's last year because he was double-covered. Do you remember Danny Amendola? Didn't think so. He also had over 1,200 yards receiving last year. But as usual, Mike will just plug in another name, another guy, and get results. Crack on it all you want, but how does he achieve such regular results with talent comparable to Baylor? Time to give the madman some much deserved respect. Obviously offense will never be a problem in Lubbock as long as Leach is in town.
On defense, the Raiders return 8 starters. There is absolutely no doubt that this is what can make the Raiders very special. Leach has been attempting to bring in defensive talent. We are starting to see the fruits of his actions. In 2007 they weren't the thriftiest of defenses, but they were definitely not the worst. Colby Whitlock is an AA in the making at DT,and McKinner Dixon will lead a much better LB corps in 2008. The secondary? They will struggle.
Imagine this. Texas Tech in a lot of shoot-outs. It will happen again, you can count on it as much as taxes and death. Question is whether they can outscore everybody. Not likely, but possible.
Texas: A down year in Texas last year? Yep. Only a final top 10 ranking. That is the expectations in Austin. The best, or ......... ? The John Mackovic and David McWilliams 'eras' have obviously been ingnored.
Bag on Coach Brown all you want. But what he has brought to Texas is pride in high school players committing to and playing for THE University of Texas. Football doesn't get much bigger than Friday Nights in Texas. High School Football is king. How is your local High School doing packing 2,000 - 5,000 every game? How about 50,000+ at a high school game? That is Texas, and that is Texas football. It doesn't get bigger and it doesn't get better.
On offense Colt McCoy returns after his injury-plagued Sophmore slump. He has 6 starters returning with him including a rejuvenated offensive line. All 5 could earn All-Confernce honors. RB is another story. Gone is speedy RB Jamaal Charles. In return will liklely be a RB by committee. No one looks to have the abilities of Jamaal, but the very much improved OL can cover that up. At WR, they lose Nate Jones, but that isn't tough to overcome for Texas. Quan Cosby and Jordan Shipley are very solid, but look for a 'stud' to emerge in '08. Don't be real surprised to see Dan Buckner, Malcolm Williams, or DeSean Hales to have a huge season for the 'Horns at WR.
Defense? The Horns only return 4 starters, but the large amount of talent on hand will not be a problem. Hard to predict a break-out player for Texas on defense because they have so many talented underclassmen. They gave up 25 ppg last year. That won't happen in '08 with Muschamp at the defensive helm. Plus he has too much talent to work with. More than he enjoyed at Auburn. Will Sergio Kindle bloom under 'Mus'. Will the entire defense bloom under Muschamp? WAAAAAY too much talent in Austin to ge ignored. I think I coud coach these guys into being pretty special. Too many names, too many potential starters to even begin.
All told, this is a 'tweener' year for the Horns. But a 'tweener' year for Texas means they will win at least 9 games. But it is very unlikely that happens since they have not won less than 10 games in a season since 2000. 3rd in the South is fairly brash, considering they have enough talent to contend for a glass football. But such is the Big 12 in 2008.
Oklahoma State: "I'm a man, I'm 40!" Mike Gundy enters his 4th year at Okie State, and yes, he is 40 years old. With Boone Pickens giving Okie State everything but his left one, the Cowpokes should start to seriously compete in the Big 12 in every sport. Question is whether Mr. Gundy should lead the football team into the new age?
I may be a bit harsh on Mr. Gundy, considering he was one of the best QB's to ever play for Oklahoma State. (He was the QB when Barry Sanders and Thurman Thomas were on campus. With Hart Lee ####, Gundy, and Sanders they were called the "Triplets".)
On offense the 'Pokes return Zac Robinson. Another great QB in a long line of great QB's in the Big 12. Gone is All-Big 12 WR Adarius Bowman. Not a problem, they have Dez Bryant to pick up the slack. They also have a solid TE in Brandon Pettigrew. With 4 returning starters on the Offensive Line, the 'Pokes should be able to make some holes for the talented RB combo of Beau Johnson (JUCO transfer), Kendall Hunter, and Keith Toston. Yet another explosive offense in a loaded Big 12.
On defense? 6 starters return, but the front 4 is the biggest problem. Only Jeray Chatham returns and he is far from spectacular. LB is a serious question as well. Andre Sexton is OK, but the rest are average at best. Perrish Cox is a stud in the secondary, and he has some experienced guys around him in Jacob Lacey and Ricky Price. Problem is, they are both average as well. If the 'Pokes want to serioulsy compete in the Big 12, it will be their front 7 on defense that needs to improve the most. And that just doesn't happen in 2008. They are likely better than many middle-feeding teams in other conferences, but this is the Big 12 South. THE toughest division in all of College Football, and they get a ranking of 4th and a possible bowl game.
Texas A&M: Dennis Franchione is gone. Enter Mike Sherman. Year in and year out, this is one of the most talented teams in the Big 12. Heck, they are the 2nd biggest hitching post in Texas behind UT in recruiting. Not a bad position to be in. But year in and year out, aTm has secured themselves as being also-rans. In the last 8 years they have not had a season in which they garnered more than 9 wins.
On offense, they bring back Stephen McGee at QB, but he is getting challenged by the seriously talented Jerrod Johnson. Throw in the fact that TAM is going full blown into the 'spread' offense, and the returning 2 year starter may not have his job intact. At RB, the Aggies are loaded. Mike Goodson is the next best thing to DeMarco Murray in the Big 12. We also have a huge spring out of Bradley Stephens. Moving Jorvorskie Lane to FB may be a blessing, but the guy still needs to shed a few pounds. Even at FB. TE Martellus Bennett opted for the NFL, so they are left as usual with a bunch of unproven talent to catch the ball. With a very limited starter in Pierre Brown returning, the Aggies have a tough challenge at hand in the WR area. Who can catch and run with the ball in the Aggie offense remains to be seen. Add in what is arguably the worst OL in the entire conference, and the Aggies will have problems breaking in a new offense, coach, and scheme.
On defense, the wrecking crew is long gone. The Aggies have been dwindling at the bottom of the Big 12 defensive rankings since 'you know who' stepped on campus. Now that he is gone, the resurgence of the wrecking crew should begin. But it will not happen overnight. There just isn't a single guy on this defense that makes one stand up and say aaagh!.
Texas A&M will start building themselves back to prominence, but it won't be this year. They may upset a team or 2, but they will not challenge for conference superiority. The challenge at hand is going to a bowl game. And that is the goal in Mike Sherman's first year as head coach.
Baylor: The red-headed step-child of the entire conference. This is also the graveyard site of many up and coming coaches. If you know someone you like, tell them NOT to coach at Baylor.
Baylor adds a new coach in Art Briles on 2008. Nice job Art. A solid career-ending decision. Someone will turn this program around, but it is not likely Art.
I won't even go into the particulars of this team. The worst in the Big 12, year in and year out. Untill they can at the least go .500 in conference play they get nothing. Because they have offered the Big 12 nothing in return.
The Big 10 FOURTH in my conference rankings? Sure. Almost pegged them 5th, but the overall strength and lack of a true patsy puts them here. The once proud and distinguished Big 10 conference has taken some serious hits by the public and experts alike over the past couple of years. But it has predominantly been the losses of Ohio State in the past 2 BCS Championship games and Michigan’s defeat at home to Appalachian State last year that have led the way.
We all know the story.
Too slow........ too methodical....... 3 yards and a cloud of dust. Right?
You couldn't be more wrong.
Purdue, Northwestern, Indiana, Illinois, and Minnesota all run some version of a spread or multiple receiver set offense. And with the addition of Rich Rodriguez to Michigan the Wolverines will as well. Add in the arrival of Terrelle Pryor in Columbus, OH and we will also see the sweater vest bring back some of the spread they used when Troy Smith was on campus. Throw in the pro-set offenses of Michigan State and Iowa, and you really only have teams in Wisconsin and Penn State that rely upon grinding it out on the ground to win games. But word has it that Penn State is going to a ‘spread’ offense this year. 3 yards and a cloud of dust? Not even close.
The Big 10 likely has only 1 team with 'serious' National Championship aspirations in OhioState. And that is the main reason I have them ranked 4th in BCS supremacy. Other than what appears to be a weak top end, the Big 10 does not have a patsy in the entire conference. Something most other BCS conferences cannot claim. PennStatecould be a sleeper contender, but they haven't seriously contended since Kerry Collins and KiJana Carter were residents in State College.
So how do I see the Big 10 breaking down? Here it is:
OhioState
Penn State
Michigan State
Iowa
Wisconsin
Michigan
Illinois
Northwestern
Minnesota
Purdue
Indiana
So here is my selections, and why:
OhioState: ahem...... Excuse me, THE Ohio State. With a grand total of 19 starters returning from a team that has played in the past two National Championship games, and there isn't a whole lot to NOT like about tOSU. Offensively, they have the tools to do just about anything you want. Run, pass, stretch the field, screen, dink and dunk, you name it, they have it. Throw in the arrival of one of the most highly recruited players in College Football history in Terrelle Pryor, as a backup QB, and you have the makings of something special in Columbus. If you don't consider Ohio State as a legitimate National Title contender, then you either:
Hate OSU
Hate the Big 10
Believe their losses in the past 2 National Championship games should prevent them from ever playing in this contest ever again.
If those thoughts enter into your mind then why did Florida win the National Championship in 1996? (Beaten by Nebraska 62-24 in the previous years Fiesta Bowl.) Why did Oklahomawin the 2000 National Championship game after getting beat by a 5-7 Notre Dame team, a 7-5 Colorado team by 14, a 6-5 Texas Tech team by 10, and a Mississippi team in the Independence Bowl in the previous season? How about Tennessee in 1998 after getting beat by Nebraska 42 – 17 in the previous years Orange Bowl? How about THE same Ohio State program that was 7-5 in 2001, and then went on to win a National Championship in 2002, rolling to an undefeated season and supposedly beating one of the 'best' College Football teams in the history of College Football?
Well enough about that.
On offense we should see some big time improvement in Senior signal-caller Todd Boeckman. And even if he doesn't improve that much, a repeat of last year’s performance would be good enough with the talent around him. Chris ‘Beanie’ Wells is the best RB in the nation and is my early season favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. Brian Robiskie is a stud WR, and Brian Hartline and Ray Small make very solid #2 and #3 options. Throw in what is arguably the best offensive line in the country and you have the makings of a dominant offensive unit. What is really appealing about the Buckeye offense this year is that they are extremely strong in their 2 deep rotations. There are many a BCS conference teams that would be glad to line up OSU’s #2’s as their #1’s in 2008.
So what about the defense? Just as scary. On defense, tOSU returns one of the most feared LB's in the nation in James Laurinaitis to roam the middle for a stodgy OSU defense. Behind him is what I believe will be the Jim Thorpe award winner for the best defensive back in the nation in Malcolm Jenkins. James and Malcolm have some good stuff around them on defense as well. Vernon Gholston and Larry Grant are gone, but they have studs in Ross Homan and Lawrence Wilson to replace them. Throw in this year’s biggest splash at DE in Cameron Heyward (shouldn't be that big of a surprise) and the Buckeyes have it all. Laugh all you want, but their trip to USC will likely decipher at least 1 part of the National Championship game this year. Much like OSU's battle with Texas in 2005. The THE, will be put back into THE Ohio State in 2008. Bank on it. This is a team that has been close to tasting the almighty in the past two years. Throw in my most respected coach in the country in Jim Tressel, and you have my pick for this year's National Champion.
PennState: Glutton for punishment? Maybe. I keep pegging these guys to finish close to the top of the Big 10, and last year I had them on top. You would think I would learn? With 18 starters returning and Joe Pa in his 1,000th year as head coach at PSU, I have to peg them here (Someone please kick me while I'm down). They were 4-4 in conference play last year, which was just a bit of a disappointment (really?). The Nittany Lions return the 2nd best Offensive Line in the Big 10. They also lose one of the most embattled QB's in the history of Penn State football in Anthony Morelli. Much was expected of Anthony, and he quite simply did not produce. Especially in big games when it really mattered. The Lions will also return one of the best defenses in the Big 10. Last year they gave up the most points that they have given up in the past 3 years. But it was STILL only 17.5 points per game. Good enough for 7th in the country in PPG, and 11th overall in yards given up per contest. On the bad side they lose two of the best defensive players in the nation in Sean Lee and Dan Connor. (Lee to injury, Connor to the NFL.) Both stalwart LB's. But if there is anything that PSU can replace, it is LB's. They aren't called Linebacker U for nothing. Look for Chris Colasanti to step into a major role as a difference maker at MLB for the Lions in 2008. Maurice Evans is an absolute stud, and an AA candidate at DE, and AJ Wallace at CB and Anthony Scirrotto at Safety anchor a strong secondary. On the offensive side of the ball? Depends. Evan Royster has some serious talent. Curt Warner type talent, and Derrick Williams needs to live up to his original billing with Deon Butler showing the way at WR. As always, they have another solid OL in tow. Just depends on the QB at PSU. Just like it always has in most years. When they have a gamer they win, when they don't, well.........they don't. Throw in the supposed move to the ‘spread’ offense and this pick at #2 in the Big 10 gets even riskier. But, I’ll call for it to be a good and necessary change and should help either Darryl Clark or Pat Devlin in their 1st year as the starting QB. If things fall into place, PSU could find themselves BCS bowling again in ’08.
MichiganState: 3rd? Like I said, flip flop the rest, and I'd have a hard time arguing myself. BUT.............. I REALLY like Brian Hoyer the SR QB at MSU. He is a winner. Javon Ringer is a winner at RB as well. Mark Dantonio is a solid coach, who took a 4-8 disaster of a team in 2006 to a 7-6 record and a bowl game appearance in his 1st year. Sure they lost to Boston College in their bowl game, but BC was once ranked as high as #2 last year and losing by a field goal to an 11-3 team isn’t that bad. The Spartans return 13 starters, but they do lose 1 year wonder WR Devin Thomas ( a JUCO transfer) to the NFL a year early. The test that will maybe make or break this team is week 1. A visit to California. If they come out victorious in that one, they could go 7-0 before a date with OhioState. If they show up short, they could also show up against OhioState with a 2-5 record. Such is the 'stability' of the Big 10 this year. But it isn't much different than any other league this year. When all is said and done, I like Dantonio as the head coach at MSU. And coaching is likely the trump card when teams look like they are even. And that is why I put Sparty over the rest.......although I'm not real excited about it. I expect the defense to get better in the 2nd year of the system, and the offense 'should' improve with a 2nd year bona fide starter and gamer at QB. Look for Mark Dell and Deon Curry to be one of the best receiving duos in the Big 10, and if Greg Jones, Eric Gordon, and Kendall-Davis Clark can rally the troops on defense, they will be competitive in each and every game in 2008. Throw in Dantonio's defensive background as former DC for the Buckeyes, including their 2002 championship season, and the men in green should improve dramatically on that side of the ball. State fans should have a lot to cheer bout in '08. GO SPARTA!!!
Iowa: I’ve listed 4 Big 10 teams and have not mentioned Michigan or Wisconsin you ask? Absolutely. What does Iowa have other than a loyal fan base? Well.....they have 13 starters returning from a team that was less than spectacular last year. Ask any Iowa fan if they were a bit disappointed in their team’s performance, and the performance of their ‘stud’ QB recruit Jake Christensen last year and you will have likely hit a painful nerve. On the flip side, the Hawks have a pen chance for doing something good in years AFTER great expectations. Last year, with Albert Young, Dominique Douglas, and a solid defense, the Hawks were going to make some noise in the Big 10. Is 6-6 noise? Is a 38-20 loss to Indiananoise? Is a 13-15 loss to a 3-9 IowaState team, considered noise? Is Ferentz a good coach? It is starting to get some debate, but I believe he is and so should Hawkeye fans. This is a team that could challenge OSU for conference supremacy, but it isn’t likely. They will have one of the best Offensive Lines in the Big 10 behind OSU, PSU, and WIsconsin. They will also have 2 of the best DT's in the entire conference to anchor their DL in Mitch King and Matt Kroul. Solid DT’s are the center piece of any great defense. Throw in the rush end talent of Clayborn and Ballard, and you might have a legit sleeper in the Big 10 this year. If a WR, a LB , and CB can step up, this is a team of substance that can compete with anybody in the Big 10, maybe even nationally. 4th? Yes. This should be a solid return of the Hawkeyes to Big 10 relevance.
Wisconsin: Always good, just always not good enough. That is the Badgers in a nutshell. I love everything about this program. Honestly I do. They do it the right way. Problem is, they just don't get enough difference-makers to put them over the hump. 2008 is not any different. 17 starters returning, a good coach, a solid tandem of running backs, a great offensive line, and a defense that is feisty. Really? Sounds like every other season since 1994 for the Badgers. Last year many a person had Wisconsin on their short list of National Title contenders after a 12-1 season and 16 starters returning. Yours truly predicted at least 3 losses and was ridiculed by Badger fans across the nation. Playing a schedule like they did in 2006 was very reminiscent of the Kansas schedule in 2007. So what do the Badgers have in store for 2008? They will be good. They always are. Bielema is a solid coach, and they will be sound on both sides of the line. What they lack in talent, they more than make up for in coaching and fundamentals. But........ I'm picking them 5th, ahead of Michigan, so what is my beef? I have none. Just looks like another solid 9-4, 8-5 type season for the Badgers. That usually means a .500 record in conference and a 4th to 6th place finish in the Big 10. They get OhioState and PennState at home, but also have road games to Fresno State, Michigan, Iowa, and MichiganState. Once conference play starts, they do not get a break in which they play 8 straight weeks of football. That will wear on any team, especially in the physical Big 10. On offense they have the best receiving TE in the country in Travis Beckum. They will also have one of the best RB rotations in PJ Hill, John Clay, and Lance Smith. And as always, they will have one of the best run-blocking offensive lines in the entire country. What they won’t have is the gutsy signal-calling of the departed Tyler Donovan. Allan Evridge and Dustin Sherer will battle it out for QB duties. Neither will be as effective as Donovan was last year.
On defense, the Badgers return 9 guys including the tackling machine play-making abilities of Jonathan Casillas. He won’t get much National, or maybe even conference attention, but he is a solid LB. The DL is good, but far from great, and the loss of Jack Ikegwouonu at CB is as heavy a loss as anyone in the conference in the secondary. The Badgers simply don’t have anyone to replace him and his 15 PBU’s (Pass Break Ups). Chalk up another solid year for Wisconsin, and either an appearance in the Champs, Alamo, or Insight Bowl.
Michigan: They just lost everybody and their dog on the offensive side of the ball. Jake Long, Chad Henne, Mike Hart, Mario Manningham, and Adrian Arrington. They also lost their 4 top tacklers on defense from last year. They have a new coach; a coach that is bringing some baggage with him as well. 6th in the Big 10? It may be a bit high.
On Defense, they lose Shawn Crable, who was their biggest playmaker on defense last year, along with the aforementioned top 4 tacklers. The defense is not lacking any talent, and do return 7 starters including lock-down corner and AA candidate Morgan Trent, and opposite of him the physical Donovan Warren. The DL will be solid, and is likely the best in the Big 10. LB on the other hand is the major concern. There is plenty of talent, but it is largely unproven and pretty young as well. If the Wolverines are to make a run at the Big 10 title, it will be the defense leading the way because...........
On offense, what else can you say? This is a rebuilding year. Only 3 starters return and they will be implementing a new offense to boot. There is some talent, and one should fully expect Michigan to patch together a solid offensive line, but QB, RB, and WR are huge question marks. Greg Matthews will likely step into the role as the #1 receiver. The question is whether he is ready for double teams and the brunt of the workload at wideout. RB will likely come down to a revolving door of talent in Carlos Brown, Brandon Minor, Kevin Grady, and true freshman recruit Sam McGuffie. QB, however, is a whole 'nother story. Steven Threet looks like the likely under center option, but that can’t get Michigan fans real excited. The options facing the Wolverines at QB are a redshirt freshman (Threet), a lightly recruited DB transfer in Justin Feagin, a Sophomore walk-on in Nick Sheridan, a converted RB in Carlos Brown, or a redshirt Sophomore in David Cone (and no he isn’t a former major league pitcher). In all the Wolverines do not have a QB on their roster that has ever attempted, much less completed a pass in collegiate football. Yes, you read that correctly. ZERO pass attempts, ZERO completions for their entire returning QB depth chart. Now you are going to throw a new offense at them? An offense that none of them were recruited to perform in? Believe me, I’ve seen this before, and the results won’t be good. Michigan will struggle mightily on the offensive side of the ball, and expect the possibility that Zoltan Mesko may at many times be their best option, and he is the punter. Michigan has enough talent to at least be competitive, but games with Utah, @ Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Illinois, @ Penn State, MichiganState, @ Purdue, and @ Ohio State loom on their schedule. That is 8 games that Michigan could lose and nobody would be real surprised about. The Wolverines 40 year streak of consecutive winning seasons, and 33 year streak of consecutive bowl game appearances is in serious jeopardy in 2008. But somehow, some way, I see them clawing and scratching their way to at least a 6-6 or 7-5 regular season record. After all, they are still Michigan.
Illinois: From the Rose Bowl to 7th in the conference? Yep, that is where I see them. The loss of Rashard Mendenhall, J Leman, and 5 of their top 7 tacklers will prove to be too great for the Illini to overcome in conference play. They also have back to road games against PennState and Michigan, and also play Wisconsin, Iowa and OhioState. Juice Williams is an exciting QB to watch play, and Arrelious Benn is one of the most talented receivers in the country. Unfortunately, they have an average offensive line in front of them, and a serious drop off in talent in the loss of RB Mendenhall. A drop in offensive output should be expected.
On defense, they return 6 starters, but as mentioned before are without 5 of their top 7 tacklers from last year including heart and soul LB J Leman. Vontae Davis is one of the best CB’s in the country, but he won’t have a whole lot of help with him. The DL will be improved but far from great, and the LB corps will severely miss their field general in Leman. Throw in a much improved conference, a tougher schedule, and I fully expect a significant drop from the Illini in 2008. They should still go bowling, but not much else should be expected from the Zooksters this year.
Northwestern: I should probably have the Wildcats a bit higher in my rankings, but it is a bit difficult to put them in front of anybody else. Such is the strength throughout the middle of the Big 10 this year. Starting the season the Wildcats could easily start out 4-0 with 4 relative cupcakes on the schedule. Northwestern returns 15 starters including their undervalued QB CJ Bacher, and their crafty RB in Tyrell Sutton. The ‘Cats will score some points, but it will be their defense that determines just how good they will be in 2008. And on the defensive side of the ball, there just isn’t a whole lot of talent that scares anybody. Likely if the ‘Cats are to go bowling again 2008, they will need to simply outscore some people. Games against Purdue, Indiana, Minnesota, and Illinoisshould offer them those opportunities.
Minnesota: Even though Minnesota was 1-11 in Tim Brewster’s 1st year as head coach, it wasn’t nearly as bad as it looked. Sure they lost to a lower division opponent in North DakotaState, but so did Michigan. The loss to Florida Atlantic didn’t turn out to be that bad, and other than a 20 point loss to Indiana, a 23 point loss to Ohio State, a 24 point loss to Michigan, and a 27 point loss to Illinois, the Gophers were pretty damn competitive in the rest of their games. They get 15 starters returning including a solid Sophomore QB in Adam Weber. They are still extremely young, but Brewster has these kids playing hard and believing. They could also start out the season 4-0 before a trip to OhioState. Sprinkled in amongst a solid 1st year recruiting class are some JUCO’s that could make some waves for the Gophers in ’08 as well. Tramaine Brock at FS should help shore up a porous secondary, and Tim McGee and Cedric McKinley should be able to provide some much needed depth up front in the Gophers defensive front 4. The Gophers should be able to score some points, and there defense really can’t get any worse since they ranked 119th out of 119 teams last year. If things fall into place, the boys from Minneapolis could even go bowling in 2008. Tim Brewster looks like he will get this program moving back in the right direction again, and if early recruiting for the 2009 season is any indication, the Gophers could well be on their way to a top 25 recruiting class to build upon for next year as well. Look for the Gophers to be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2008.
Purdue: 10th in the conference for Purdue? Sure. They return one of the best QB’s in the country in Curtis Painter and a sold RB in Kory Sheets, but they lose all everything WR Dorien Bryant and their go to TE Dustin Keller. On defense is where they are going to struggle the most. Big 10 All-Conference LB candidate Anthony Heygood is back, but nobody else really strikes anybody as quality Big 10 defenders. Even with those considerations that isn’t the biggest concern in West Lafayette, IN this year. The schedule is the biggest problem. Take a peek at this stretch of games. At home vs. Oregon, vs. Central Michigan, @ Notre Dame, vs. PennState, and @ Ohio State. And those are just games 2 through 6. Throw in additional road games to Northwestern, MichiganState, and Iowa and this is one of the toughest schedules in the country. They also play all their games in 12 consecutive weeks. Very unlikely to foresee the Boilers going bowling in 2008, and with a possible 1-5 start to the season, things could get really ugly. Rumors were that Joe Tiller was going to retire after this season. He may not have a choice. Purdue in '08? Looks more like Purdon't.
Indiana: From an inspiring bowl season to cellar dwellers? Unfortunately that is how I see it. Losing James Hardy to the NFL was one thing. Losing Kellen Lewis in the off-season was another. Coming off of their best season in well over a decade the Hoosiers were looking forward to the 3-headed punch of Lewis, Hardy, and Thigpen in ’08. Now 2 out of the 3 are gone, and the Hoos don’t have anybody near the level of talent that these two guys had to replace them. Greg Middleton, the returning NCAA sack leader and all Big 10 DE is back. But…..expect that type of production to drop. When you consider that Indiana’s strength will be their defense, then you can foresee some struggles in Bloomington in ’08. It is hard to put them in the cellar because they simply aren’t that bad, but somebody has to lose, and this looks like the weakest team in the Big 10 this year. Again, another plus for the Big 10 if this is the worst team in their conference. Yet another example of the parity that is now the norm in College Football.
A few weeks ago Mr. Les Miles, the head coach for Louisiana State University's football team, made some comments on WWL radio in New Orleans. Some of the comments he made are as follows:
"I can tell you this, that they have a much easier road to travel. They're going to play real knockdown drag-outs with UCLA and Washington, Cal-Berkeley, Stanford - some real juggernauts - and they're going to end up, it would be my guess, in some position so if they win a game or two, that they'll end up in the title [game].
"I would like that path for us. I think the SEC provides much stiffer competition."
"The Big 12 is a conference that might have two really pretty good teams, maybe four. I think the Pac-10 may have one or two really good ones. The ACC certainly, arguably, has some quality teams.
"I don't think there's any conference out there that has as many quality teams as ours."
Really?
I applaud Mr. Miles for making such career-limiting and controversial evaluations of fellow BCS conference members in the Pac 10 and the Big 12. In most part, he is probably correct. Outside of USC, the Pac 10 hasn't had any other team that can compete on a national championship level since the Joey Harrington Oregon days and Washington's late 80's and early 90's teams. The Big 12, over the past 5 years, has only had Texas and Oklahoma to carry the banner on a national level as well.
But my question for you Mr. Miles is: Why now? Why this year?
I'll take a couple of stabs at his true convictions that he is making in these comments, and then provide some introspect into Mr. Miles coaching career.
Why now? Why this year?: Most likely we will see Mr. Miles Tiger's as being ranked in the top 2 in just about every College Football poll in the country. There is no doubt that this is a good team coming into this year, and has the talent to end up in this years National Championship game. But one has to seriously question why Mr. Miles would come out before the season starts and make such brash comments about other schools and conferences that will likely be competing for the same lucrative prize. Is Mr. Miles simply setting the stage for when his Tigers get beat this season, that he will have convinced the pollsters, voters, writers, etc. that a 1 loss SEC team is as good, if not better than a 0 loss Pac 10 or Big 12 team? Who knows, but one really has to question his intentions of making such comments.
Mr. Miles is bringing into question the 'power' of the schedules of teams that play in these two conferences. And most vividly the schedule that lays in front of USC. Hmmmm...... Let us take a look at these schdules for 2007. There are rankings out for 2007, about who plays the toughest schedule. I'll give a few of these 'experts' opinions.
Phil Steele has 8 Pac 10 schools ranked with his toughest schedules for 2007. Yep that is correct, the top 8 toughest schedules by Phil Steele are as such: Washington, USC, Washington State, Arizona, UCLA, Stanford, Oregon State, and California. Oregon and Arizona State also rank in his top 15 as well. Where is LSU's schedule rank according to Mr. Steele? 52nd. And just to let you know, Mr. Steele's magazine has been the best predictor of College Football over the past 8 years when compared to other pre-season magazines. http://www.stassen.com/preseason/review/
The next question I have for Mr. Miles is this: What have you done, that deserves any merit for calling out any other school, let alone conference?
Mr. Miles head coaching career started at Oklahoma State University back in the year 2001. The Cowboys were 3-8 in the previous season under the tutelage of Bob Simmons and were in a downward spiral since Pat Jones left after the 1994 season. Mr. Miles did some nice things while at Oklahoma State. In his four years at OSU he compiled regular season records of 4-7, 7-5, 9-3, and 7-4. His overall record at OSU was 28-21. Not bad when considering he came to a school with a record of 3-8 prior to his arrival. Les also held two victories over the Cowboys bitter rival Oklahoma Sooners during his 4 year stint in Stillwater. However, he also had some low points as well. His Cowboys were 3-12 against ranked opponents, and they never played in the Big 12 Championship game. Some of his defeats included scores such as 9-44, 9-52, 16-55, 35-56, 17-45, and 7-33.
My most vivid memory of Mr. Miles and his coaching career at Oklahoma State was when they visited Memorial Stadium in Lincoln, NE in 2003. They were preseason ranked 24th in the country, and Nebraska was in the midst of a lame-duck coach in Frank Solich's last year at the reins. Oklahoma State brought in one of the most talented offenses in the country, and were expected to lay about 35 points on the 'Skers in Lincoln that year. Josh Fields, Tatum Bell, Rashaun Woods, and D'Juan Woods posted a dismal 7 points in route to a 17-7 loss in Lincoln. That was one of the worst coaching performances I have ever witnessed. And was the only time I honestly remember that Frank Solich outcoached a better team in a victory. OSU went on to average over 35 points a game that year, and ended up in the Cotton Bowl.
No doubt Mr. Mile's was hired by LSU due to his scintillating victories over their Bedlam Series rivals Oklahoma. If he was hired for any other reason, i'm just not getting it.
Now, lets take a look at what Mr. Miles has done since his arrival on campus at Baton Rouge. His record is a spectacular 22-4. But I still question his ability to lead one of College Football's powerhouse Universities. His 1st two years can easily be given to the incredible recruiting job that Nick Saban did while he was at LSU. In Mr. Mile's 1st recruiting class he continued that strong tradition with a 3rd ranked class, (according to rivals.com) with such future stars as DeAngelo Benton, Ron Brooks, Chad Jones, Jarrett Lee, and Terrance Tolliver. My question is, what will he do with that talent?
During the 2005 season, LSU had a 21-0 halftime lead over conference rival Tennessee in their 1st conference game of the season. This was a night game in Baton Rouge. Probably the toughest place to play in all of college football. The result? A 30-27 OT victory by Tennessee, in one of the biggest meltdowns in LSU history. This during a year in which Tennessee struggled to a 5-6 record and averaged a shoddy 18.6 ppg in offense. However, LSU gave up 30 points in one half of football. They then played Georgia in the SEC championship game, and were embarrassed with a 34-14 shellacking at the hands of the bulldogs.
Last year, I'll point out a couple of games that should bring to question Mr. Miles coaching abilities. In a 7-3 loss to Auburn in the 3rd game of the season, the LSU Tigers outgained Auburn by a sum of 331 total yards to 152. They also held a +1 turnover margin. How does a team lose with those kinds of statitistics in their favor?
The next game from 2006 that sticks out like a sore thumb is the Arkansas game. Heralding the 2nd best rush defense in the SEC (Florida #1), the Tigers gave up 298 yards rushing to the Hogs. But Arkansas had a spectacular rushing team last year you argue? Yes, they did. But that same Arkansas team did not rush for more yards than 298 yards against ANY other SEC opponent all of last year. Arkansas averaged 229 yards per game on the ground last year. The only schools that gave up more yardage rushing to Arkansas were SE Missouri State and the University of Louisiana-Monroe. Even Utah State didn't get gashed for 298 yards of rushing offense against Arkansas. This, while only giving up 5 of 20 passing completions for a paltry 62 yards. With such a 1-dimensional offense, how could Miles and his crack staff not come up with a scheme to stop these guys? Alabama, Mississippi, Mississippi State, and Florida found ways to slow these guys down, and you had one of the best and most talented defenses to work with.
I give big congratulations for Mr. Miles and his staff for their dominating bowl victories over the last two years. As I thouroughly enjoyed the whippings his boys put on Miami and Notre Dame. However, as I have pointed out, there still have to be some question marks as to the true merit of Mr. Miles coaching abilities. And now he has the wherewithall to call out 19 other schools?
Now the question remains. Why would a guy call out two other conferences before the season has even started? Not only is he committing coaching suicide, but he is also creating bulletin board material for schools that not only play against his squad, but any SEC team for that matter. One truly has to question the character, class, and tact of a man that makes such comments, while holding such a distinguished position within his profession. And these comments coming from a guy who hasn't even won a conference championship.
By the way, Pete Carrol responded to Mr. Miles comments in the Los Angeles Daily News:
"He's really taking a shot at all the other schools we play. Maybe the comments should come from the coaches at the other schools, including Charlie (Weis) at Notre Dame. He didn't slam us. He slammed all the other schools we play."
Well Mr. Miles, let Mr. Carrol's response be a lesson in class, and how a college coach of a major university should conduct himself. Don't embarrass yourself, your school, your family, and your players with comments becoming of an 8th grader. LSU is my 2nd favorite College Football program, and I am appalled and embarrassed for Mr. Miles and his comments.
Rumors are abound that Les Miles will eventually end up coaching at Michigan. There are some calling for Lloyd Carr to retire after this year and for Mr. Miles to step into his place. If Mr. Miles does not end up at Michigan, and eventually gets 'let go' at LSU, he has severely limited his options of coaching College Football for the rest of his life. He has eliminated 22 of the 65 BCS confernce schools from ever thinking of hiring him in the future.
Here's hoping LSU and USC meet in this years College Football championship game. And we get to see this rivalry once and for all settled on the field. Then, and only then, will the talk of which team is better be resolved. Until then, Mr. Miles, keep your comments to yourself, play some football, and hold up to your end of the bargain. I'm sure Mr. Carrol would be happy to play you, in your backyard of New Orleans on January 7th, 2008.
Will Les Miles become a great college football coach? It remains to be seen, he has only done it for 6 years thus far. Interesting stuff, from a guy who is fairly new to head coaching at the highest of College Football levels. And now he has called out some of the most prestigious college football schools in all of NCAA Division I College Football. Actions speak louder than words Mr. Miles. Now it is time for you to act.
Well, I've already hit the SEC, the Pac 10, and the Big 12. Now onto the 4th best conference for 2007, the Big 10. After an embarassing finish to the seasons of their 2 biggest programs in the conference, the Big 10 will have a lot of work to do to impress the public and pollsters alike. Nobody likes to watch 41-14 or 32-18 Championship games. Especially when it was crammed down our throats for 5 months that Michigan and Ohio State were the two best teams in the country.
Well, enough about last year, what does the Big 10 have to offer in 2007? Quite a bit actually. The middle of this conference will be much improved this year, and Wisconsin will actually get a chance to play against Michigan and Ohio State.
Breakdown of teams:
Michigan: With Henne, Hart, and Manningham all returning, the Wolverines have a solid 3-some returning in Ann Arbor. However, they only return 10 starters from their 11-2 squad from last year, and a drop off from a pretty stout defense should be expected as they lost a ton in last years NFL draft and graduation. Leon Hall, Prescott Burgess, LaMarr Woodley, Alan Branch, and David Harris were the nucleus of their defense last year, and will be tough to replace. There is no doubt that there is talent to fill these holes, but they won't be as good as the guys that were their last year. Along with the triplets on offense, they also have an AA at Left Tackle in Jake Long, a possible #1 overall pick in next years NFL draft. They will have another top notch offensive line, and will undoubtedly put up some points on offense. They'll have to if they want to post 11 victories again. Their biggest problem may have to do with the man on the sideline. Lloyd Carr has been hearing grumbling for the last 5 to 6 years in Ann Arbor and after last years late meltdown, it will only get hotter on the coaches seat this year if they don't win a Big 10 Championship, or at the least beat Ohio State. I'll call for Michigan to beat Penn State at home, but they will fall to somebody in conference play, and have a tough home non-conference game against an Oregon team that will give them everything they want, and maybe more.
Penn State: Joe Pa has sprung some new life into his program that looked like it was about dead in 2004. With back to back solid seasons and back to back bowl victories, Joe Pa has the Lions moving in the right direction again, and will be a tough beat for anybody in the country this year. He has also been recruiting to Happy Valley as well as he has at any point in time in his career. With 14 starter returning, look for the Nittany Lions to have some roar this year, and give some serious threat at winning a Big 10 title. WIth Notre Dame as their toughest non-conference schedule, look for the Pennsylvania boys to be undefeated entering conference play. Their Sept. 22nd game at Ann Arbor will likely let us know how good
Entering my personal rankings as the 2nd best conference coming into the 2008 season, the Big 12 has a lot of good things to boast about. At the end of the 2007 season they had 4 teams ranked in the final top 10 rankings. They had 2 teams that played in BCS bowl games. And they had 3 teams with serious National Championship considerations nearing the last 2 weeks of the 2007 season. 
Missouri: In 2007, the Tigers enjoyed one of their most fruitful seasons in the entire history of their program. 12-2 and a final ranking of #4. With 14 starters returning, the Tigers should be considered serious Big 12 and National Title contenders. 
Colorado: Newsflash. Dan Hawkins can coach. Not that you didn't know that, but Mr. Hawkins looks to be on his way of returning the Buffs to their late '80's and early '90's glory years. In 2007 Mr. Hawkins guided the Buffs to a 6-7 season. Not good? Well when you consider they were 2-10 the year before you can appreciate the job he did last year. He also beat Oklahoma and Texas Tech. 
Kansas: The best coaching job in the entire country has been performed in Lawrence, KS over the past 6 years. Mark Mangino has built a conference also-ran into a Big 12 contender. Don't think for a minute that this was done overnight. He has done it the right way. Solid recruiting, solid coaching, and a stay the course attitude has resurrected one of the worst programs in NCAA history into legitimate contenders.
Nebraska: This hurts. It hurts bad. Pegging my 'Skers as 4th in the Big 12 North is the last thing I thought that I would believe in my entire life. But such is the downfall of one of the proudest and most storied programs in the history of College Football. 
The Big 10 FOURTH in my conference rankings? Sure. Almost pegged them 5th, but the overall strength and lack of a true patsy puts them here. The once proud and distinguished Big 10 conference has taken some serious hits by the public and experts alike over the past couple of years. But it has predominantly been the losses of Ohio State in the past 2 BCS Championship games and Michigan’s defeat at home to Appalachian State last year that have led the way. 
Ohio State: ahem...... Excuse me, THE Ohio State. With a grand total of 19 starters returning from a team that has played in the past two National Championship games, and there isn't a whole lot to NOT like about tOSU. Offensively, they have the tools to do just about anything you want. Run, pass, stretch the field, screen, dink and dunk, you name it, they have it. Throw in the arrival of one of the most highly recruited players in College Football history in Terrelle Pryor, as a backup QB, and you have the makings of something special in Columbus. If you don't consider Ohio State as a legitimate National Title contender, then you either:
Penn State: Glutton for punishment? Maybe. I keep pegging these guys to finish close to the top of the Big 10, and last year I had them on top. You would think I would learn? With 18 starters returning and Joe Pa in his 1,000th year as head coach at PSU, I have to peg them here (Someone please kick me while I'm down). They were 4-4 in conference play last year, which was just a bit of a disappointment (really?). The Nittany Lions return the 2nd best Offensive Line in the Big 10. They also lose one of the most embattled QB's in the history of Penn State football in Anthony Morelli. Much was expected of Anthony, and he quite simply did not produce. Especially in big games when it really mattered. The Lions will also return one of the best defenses in the Big 10. Last year they gave up the most points that they have given up in the past 3 years. But it was STILL only 17.5 points per game. Good enough for 7th in the country in PPG, and 11th overall in yards given up per contest. On the bad side they lose two of the best defensive players in the nation in Sean Lee and Dan Connor. (Lee to injury, Connor to the NFL.) Both stalwart LB's. But if there is anything that PSU can replace, it is LB's. They aren't called Linebacker U for nothing. Look for Chris Colasanti to step into a major role as a difference maker at MLB for the Lions in 2008. Maurice Evans is an absolute stud, and an AA candidate at DE, and AJ Wallace at CB and Anthony Scirrotto at Safety anchor a strong secondary. On the offensive side of the ball? Depends. Evan Royster has some serious talent. Curt Warner type talent, and Derrick Williams needs to live up to his original billing with Deon Butler showing the way at WR. As always, they have another solid OL in tow. Just depends on the QB at PSU. Just like it always has in most years. When they have a gamer they win, when they don't, well.........they don't. Throw in the supposed move to the ‘spread’ offense and this pick at #2 in the Big 10 gets even riskier. But, I’ll call for it to be a good and necessary change and should help either Darryl Clark or Pat Devlin in their 1st year as the starting QB. If things fall into place, PSU could find themselves BCS bowling again in ’08. 
Michigan State: 3rd? Like I said, flip flop the rest, and I'd have a hard time arguing myself. BUT.............. I REALLY like Brian Hoyer the SR QB at MSU. He is a winner. Javon Ringer is a winner at RB as well. Mark Dantonio is a solid coach, who took a 4-8 disaster of a team in 2006 to a 7-6 record and a bowl game appearance in his 1st year. Sure they lost to Boston College in their bowl game, but BC was once ranked as high as #2 last year and losing by a field goal to an 11-3 team isn’t that bad. The Spartans return 13 starters, but they do lose 1 year wonder WR Devin Thomas ( a JUCO transfer) to the NFL a year early. The test that will maybe make or break this team is week 1. A visit to California. If they come out victorious in that one, they could go 7-0 before a date with Ohio State. If they show up short, they could also show up against Ohio State with a 2-5 record. Such is the 'stability' of the Big 10 this year. But it isn't much different than any other league this year. When all is said and done, I like Dantonio as the head coach at MSU. And coaching is likely the trump card when teams look like they are even. And that is why I put Sparty over the rest.......although I'm not real excited about it. I expect the defense to get better in the 2nd year of the system, and the offense 'should' improve with a 2nd year bona fide starter and gamer at QB. Look for Mark Dell and Deon Curry to be one of the best receiving duos in the Big 10, and if Greg Jones, Eric Gordon, and Kendall-Davis Clark can rally the troops on defense, they will be competitive in each and every game in 2008. Throw in Dantonio's defensive background as former DC for the Buckeyes, including their 2002 championship season, and the men in green should improve dramatically on that side of the ball. State fans should have a lot to cheer bout in '08. GO SPARTA!!! 
Iowa: I’ve listed 4 Big 10 teams and have not mentioned Michigan or Wisconsin you ask? Absolutely. What does Iowa have other than a loyal fan base? Well.....they have 13 starters returning from a team that was less than spectacular last year. Ask any Iowa fan if they were a bit disappointed in their team’s performance, and the performance of their ‘stud’ QB recruit Jake Christensen last year and you will have likely hit a painful nerve. On the flip side, the Hawks have a pen chance for doing something good in years AFTER great expectations. Last year, with Albert Young, Dominique Douglas, and a solid defense, the Hawks were going to make some noise in the Big 10. Is 6-6 noise? Is a 38-20 loss to Indiana noise? Is a 13-15 loss to a 3-9 Iowa State team, considered noise? Is Ferentz a good coach? It is starting to get some debate, but I believe he is and so should Hawkeye fans. This is a team that could challenge OSU for conference supremacy, but it isn’t likely. They will have one of the best Offensive Lines in the Big 10 behind OSU, PSU, and WIsconsin. They will also have 2 of the best DT's in the entire conference to anchor their DL in Mitch King and Matt Kroul. Solid DT’s are the center piece of any great defense. Throw in the rush end talent of Clayborn and Ballard, and you might have a legit sleeper in the Big 10 this year. If a WR, a LB , and CB can step up, this is a team of substance that can compete with anybody in the Big 10, maybe even nationally. 4th? Yes. This should be a solid return of the Hawkeyes to Big 10 relevance. 
Wisconsin: Always good, just always not good enough. That is the Badgers in a nutshell. I love everything about this program. Honestly I do. They do it the right way. Problem is, they just don't get enough difference-makers to put them over the hump. 2008 is not any different. 17 starters returning, a good coach, a solid tandem of running backs, a great offensive line, and a defense that is feisty. Really? Sounds like every other season since 1994 for the Badgers. Last year many a person had Wisconsin on their short list of National Title contenders after a 12-1 season and 16 starters returning. Yours truly predicted at least 3 losses and was ridiculed by Badger fans across the nation. Playing a schedule like they did in 2006 was very reminiscent of the Kansas schedule in 2007. So what do the Badgers have in store for 2008? They will be good. They always are. Bielema is a solid coach, and they will be sound on both sides of the line. What they lack in talent, they more than make up for in coaching and fundamentals. But........ I'm picking them 5th, ahead of Michigan, so what is my beef? I have none. Just looks like another solid 9-4, 8-5 type season for the Badgers. That usually means a .500 record in conference and a 4th to 6th place finish in the Big 10. They get Ohio State and Penn State at home, but also have road games to Fresno State, Michigan, Iowa, and Michigan State. Once conference play starts, they do not get a break in which they play 8 straight weeks of football. That will wear on any team, especially in the physical Big 10. On offense they have the best receiving TE in the country in Travis Beckum. They will also have one of the best RB rotations in PJ Hill, John Clay, and Lance Smith. And as always, they will have one of the best run-blocking offensive lines in the entire country. What they won’t have is the gutsy signal-calling of the departed Tyler Donovan. Allan Evridge and Dustin Sherer will battle it out for QB duties. Neither will be as effective as Donovan was last year.
Michigan: They just lost everybody and their dog on the offensive side of the ball. Jake Long, Chad Henne, Mike Hart, Mario Manningham, and Adrian Arrington. They also lost their 4 top tacklers on defense from last year. They have a new coach; a coach that is bringing some baggage with him as well. 6th in the Big 10? It may be a bit high.
Illinois: From the Rose Bowl to 7th in the conference? Yep, that is where I see them. The loss of Rashard Mendenhall, J Leman, and 5 of their top 7 tacklers will prove to be too great for the Illini to overcome in conference play. They also have back to road games against Penn State and Michigan, and also play Wisconsin, Iowa and Ohio State. Juice Williams is an exciting QB to watch play, and Arrelious Benn is one of the most talented receivers in the country. Unfortunately, they have an average offensive line in front of them, and a serious drop off in talent in the loss of RB Mendenhall. A drop in offensive output should be expected. 
Northwestern: I should probably have the Wildcats a bit higher in my rankings, but it is a bit difficult to put them in front of anybody else. Such is the strength throughout the middle of the Big 10 this year. Starting the season the Wildcats could easily start out 4-0 with 4 relative cupcakes on the schedule. Northwestern returns 15 starters including their undervalued QB CJ Bacher, and their crafty RB in Tyrell Sutton. The ‘Cats will score some points, but it will be their defense that determines just how good they will be in 2008. And on the defensive side of the ball, there just isn’t a whole lot of talent that scares anybody. Likely if the ‘Cats are to go bowling again 2008, they will need to simply outscore some people. Games against Purdue, Indiana, Minnesota, and Illinois should offer them those opportunities. 
Minnesota: Even though Minnesota was 1-11 in Tim Brewster’s 1st year as head coach, it wasn’t nearly as bad as it looked. Sure they lost to a lower division opponent in North Dakota State, but so did Michigan. The loss to Florida Atlantic didn’t turn out to be that bad, and other than a 20 point loss to Indiana, a 23 point loss to Ohio State, a 24 point loss to Michigan, and a 27 point loss to Illinois, the Gophers were pretty damn competitive in the rest of their games. They get 15 starters returning including a solid Sophomore QB in Adam Weber. They are still extremely young, but Brewster has these kids playing hard and believing. They could also start out the season 4-0 before a trip to Ohio State. Sprinkled in amongst a solid 1st year recruiting class are some JUCO’s that could make some waves for the Gophers in ’08 as well. Tramaine Brock at FS should help shore up a porous secondary, and Tim McGee and Cedric McKinley should be able to provide some much needed depth up front in the Gophers defensive front 4. The Gophers should be able to score some points, and there defense really can’t get any worse since they ranked 119th out of 119 teams last year. If things fall into place, the boys from Minneapolis could even go bowling in 2008. Tim Brewster looks like he will get this program moving back in the right direction again, and if early recruiting for the 2009 season is any indication, the Gophers could well be on their way to a top 25 recruiting class to build upon for next year as well. Look for the Gophers to be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2008. 
Purdue: 10th in the conference for Purdue? Sure. They return one of the best QB’s in the country in Curtis Painter and a sold RB in Kory Sheets, but they lose all everything WR Dorien Bryant and their go to TE Dustin Keller. On defense is where they are going to struggle the most. Big 10 All-Conference LB candidate Anthony Heygood is back, but nobody else really strikes anybody as quality Big 10 defenders. Even with those considerations that isn’t the biggest concern in West Lafayette, IN this year. The schedule is the biggest problem. Take a peek at this stretch of games. At home vs. Oregon, vs. Central Michigan, @ Notre Dame, vs. Penn State, and @ Ohio State. And those are just games 2 through 6. Throw in additional road games to Northwestern, Michigan State, and Iowa and this is one of the toughest schedules in the country. They also play all their games in 12 consecutive weeks. Very unlikely to foresee the Boilers going bowling in 2008, and with a possible 1-5 start to the season, things could get really ugly. Rumors were that Joe Tiller was going to retire after this season. He may not have a choice. Purdue in '08? Looks more like Purdon't. 
Indiana: From an inspiring bowl season to cellar dwellers? Unfortunately that is how I see it. Losing James Hardy to the NFL was one thing. Losing Kellen Lewis in the off-season was another. Coming off of their best season in well over a decade the Hoosiers were looking forward to the 3-headed punch of Lewis, Hardy, and Thigpen in ’08. Now 2 out of the 3 are gone, and the Hoos don’t have anybody near the level of talent that these two guys had to replace them. Greg Middleton, the returning NCAA sack leader and all Big 10 DE is back. But…..expect that type of production to drop. When you consider that Indiana’s strength will be their defense, then you can foresee some struggles in Bloomington in ’08. It is hard to put them in the cellar because they simply aren’t that bad, but somebody has to lose, and this looks like the weakest team in the Big 10 this year. Again, another plus for the Big 10 if this is the worst team in their conference. Yet another example of the parity that is now the norm in College Football. 
