" Dear lord, we pray that we may win this game today. We ask that you give us the strength and the courage to win our 2nd straight state championship. We ask lord that nobody on our side is seriously injured. We know that we are the best team. We ask that you allow us to win this game. The lord wants you to put your foot on their balls and believe in it, because that's what wins football games. Not jumping offsides like a bunch of wimps and ####. Alright lift your heads boys, prayers over. I talked to god. I'm thru talking to god, now I'm talking to you. You're gonna be out there in front of your families, the student body, every girl you ever had a hard on for is gonna be out there today but you will not be going to no sock-hop tonight boys, you will not get no honey on your stinger if you don't go out there and bust your ####. Because this is it. This is the big one. I want you to taste it. I want you to smell it son. There's winners and there's nothing else. I don't give a #### what those pinkos over in Russia say. You want to be a loser you go live in Russia. I'm not a loser. I'm a winner. I'm an American. Who wants to be John Wayne? Who wants to grab a root and hang on? Who wants to get a mean on? Get a mean on son. Let me see you get a mean on son. Now who wants it? I want to know, who wants this? Who wants to get a mean on? Who wants it? Let's go!"
I'd like to thank Paul Gleason (Coach Wayne Hisler) from the 1988 movie "Johnny Be Good" for this marvelous quote.
The NBA Finals are over, and golf is now finished since Tiger is on an injury sabbatical. What do we have left? Football. Real football. College football to be exact. Time to get your mean on.
In the next 60-some days before the college football season kicks off on August 30th, I'll try to give you the low down about the season at hand. (At least as good as I can.) The 2008 College Football season that is.
To kick it off, I'll start with the ACC Conference, and start dwindling down the other 5 BCS conferences behind them. Why the ACC 1st you ask? Well, I'll start with what I believe to be the weakest conference and then work my way up to what I consider the strongest BCS conference. And until the ACC can win a BCS game, they will get 1st.........er, last........ billing in this blog.
With the additon of Boston College in 2005, coupled with the addition of Miami and Virginia Tech in 2004, many pundits were looking for the ACC to the be the next 'power' football conference. Self included. Unfortunately for ACC fans, it just hasn't happened. Donning a 1-9 career record in the BCS (and 0-4 since the realignment), the ACC is finding themselves as the red-headed step child of the entire BCS formula. In fact, the BCS instigated a rule that a BCS conference champion must be ranked in the top 16 to earn a bid. This was put in place due to the movement of Miami and Virginia Tech from the Big East to the ACC. Little did many punidits predict that it would be a factor for the ACC. But such is the case when you have gone 1-9 throughout the history of the BCS Championship Bowl series for an entire conference. (The only win being Florida State in the 1999 season in which they beat a Big East member, and current ACC member, Virginia Tech.)
But lets let bygones be bygones. What does the ACC have in store for us in 2008?
I foresee the rise to power of this once predicted great conference. Miami and Florida State should start to get their feet back under them, and Clemson looks to be a legitimate National Title Contender. North Carolina should be vastly improved, and the supposed bottom feeder from years of lore, Wake Forest, may well be a title contender again as well. Throw in Duke's assumed improvement, and you likely don't have a patsy in the entire conference.
How do I see it panning out?
Atlantic Division:
Clemson
Florida State
Maryland
Wake Forest
Boston College
North Carolina State
Coastal Division:
Miami
North Carolina
Virginia Tech
Georgia Tech
Duke
Virginia
I'll look for Clemson and Miami to meet in the title game with Clemson as the eventual BCS representative from the ACC. In the following I'll give you my team capsules and reasons why I foresee the teams finishing where I predict them to finish.
Atlantic:
Clemson: You will likely not find a better offensive attack than the one assembled in Clemson, SC. Cullen Harper, James Davis, CJ Spiller, and Aaron Kelly are the best set of QB, RB's, and WR in the country. End of statement. Throw in a backup QB in Willy Korn and some solid incoming freshman for the Tigers, and they are absolutely loaded on offense. Problem? With all the talent the Tigers have at the skill positions, they aren't exactly polished up front on the offensive line. With only 1 returning starter amongst the front 5, the Tigers will have their hands full in making these incredibly talented individuals able to showcase their talents. With a likely starting lineup of 3 Juniors, a Sophomore, and a redshirt Freshman, Tommy Bowden will need to have some early production to iron out his concerns up front. A game against Alabama on August 30th will let us know exactly what they have in the 1st contest of the season. On the defensive side it will be hard to replace Nick Watkins and Philip Merling, but the Tigers have a ton of talent to shore up those concerns. Primarily it starts with TRUE freshman Da'Quan Bowers to fill Philip Merlings DE spot. At 6'5" and 265 pounds, Bowers is ready to play right away. Coupled with his appearance on campus in the spring, this is an AA in waiting. Clemson has 16 starters returning from a 9-4 ballclub that was competitive with everyone on their schedule last year. Another problem in front of the Tigers is a fairly tough schedule, including two quality BCS schools amongst their non-conference slate. Games against Alabama, @ Wake Forest, @ Florida State, and South Carolina loom, along with the rest of their ACC slate. If the Tigers were to run the table, then they will have rightly deserved their slot in the National Championship game. On the other hand, we have heard the Clemson 'National Title Contender' outlooks before, and until they can go an entire season with less than 3 losses, we should all be a bit skeptical. I have them winning the ACC, but lets just say I'm just a bit hesitant in selecting a team that has not won a conference championship since 1991, and has not been in the ACC Championship game since it has been in place.
Florida State: This is a team that has pretty much underperformed in the entire decade of the 2000's. Following a decade in which they were the team of the '90's the Seminoles haven't had a whole lot to cheer about in the past 8 years. And it hasn't been due to a lack of talent. Bobby Bowden supposedly has a succession plan in place, and I wouldn't be surprised if many a 'Noles fan that can't wait until his eventual departure. With that said, Florida State returns 15 starters from a 7-6 ballclub. The 'Noles can still play some defense, and if they can get any kind of consistent play out of their much maligned signal caller, Drew Weatherford, they can compete with anybody. Preston Parker is absolutely a star in the making, and I have to believe that Florida State will do whatever they can to put the ball into his hands as much as possible. They will have a young and inexperienced offensive line, but they are ridiculously talented. On the defensive side of the ball Derek Nicholson is another stud linebacker in a long cast of stud linebackers out of FSU. Couple Nicholson with one of the best secondaries and best defensive lines in the country, and this could be a special stop unit. Ala, the 90's type dominating defenses of Seminole lore. Flatly put, there is too much talent on this team to not win at least 9 games. And if Bobby and staff can put it together along with Weatherford, this is a potential sleeper for a National Title run. The schedule is tough with games against Wake Forest, Colorado, @ Miami, Virginia Tech, Clemson, and Florida, but they have enough talent to win or at the least be competitive in every game. Look for Florida State to start their comeback to national prominence in 2008.
Maryland: Ralph Friedgen ushered in his Maryland coaching career with a ####. Three straight seasons with at least 10 or more wins and an appearance in the Orange Bowl started his career in College Park. However, since 2003 there hasn't been much to shout about for Terps fans. Ralph has some talent on hand. Darrius Heward-Bey is a lightining receiver, and he has one of the best Offensive Lines in the entire ACC, if not THE best, to protect whoever it is that will throw the ball to him. Replacing Keon Lattimore and Lance Ball at RB is a concern, but they have more talented guys to replace them, although they are obviously less experienced. The defensive side of the ball will be their largest concern. You can't replace a talent like Erin Henderson at LB. At least not at Maryland. The defensive line will have to step up big time if the Terps want to compete with the elite in the ACC. Their secondary could be special, led by Kevin Barnes, and the addition of Antwine Perez from USC. All in all it should be an exciting year in College Park, and we should fully expect the "Fighting Fridges" to go bowling yet again. Competing for an ACC Championship is likely out of reach due to road games at Clemson, and Virginia Tech. They also play California in the non-conference and have Florida State, Wake Forest, and North Carolina on the schedule as well. They will be better than last years squad, but the record may not indicate the improvement.
Wake Forest: There may not be a better coaching job being done in all of College Football than the one we find in Winston-Salem, NC. Jim Grobe has turned an eternal bottom-feeder in Wake Forest, into legit ACC title contenders over the past 2 years. Now make that 3. I have Wake behind Maryland in my standings, but I feel that Wake is the better team. Their biggest problem is that they play all the heavyweights. @ Florida State, Clemson, @ Miami, and @ Maryland. They also play a tough Mississippi squad in non-conference play, allbeit at home. Riley Skinner is a gamer at QB. But they have to replace all-everything Kenny Moore at wideout. That won't happen. The defense gets 9 starters back, and they will need to compete in order for the Deacs to challenge for an ACC title. The lack of a strong Offensive Line in front of Skinner, coupled with the loss of Moore will likely prove to be too great for the Deacs to overcome this year. They will compete, but it is hard for me to find anything better than a 4th place finish in the Atlantic.
Boston College: Matt Ryan is gone, and so is the dream 2007 season for the Eagles. Jeff Jagodzinski only returns 10 starters, and is without the 2nd greatest QB in Boston College history. (Yes, Doug Flutie would be #1). Along with Ryan; Andre Callender, LV Whitworth, and Jamie Silva are gone as well. I hate to say a 'rebuilding' year, but that is exactly what Eagles fans are in store for this year. They will likely get some glimpses of the future out of Josh Haden at RB, but the loss of Ryan will just be too great to replace. Losing a guy that threw the ball 654 times last year will be just too much to overcome.
North Carolina State: Tom O'Brien's move from BC to NC State wasn't exactly a raging success. And don't look for it to get any better in 2008. With only 10 starters returning to a team that went 5-7, the outlook for 2008 doesn't look real bright. The defense gave up 28.3 points per game last year, and it will likely get worse before it gets better. The 'Pack' lost their 3 top tacklers from last year, and don't have much talent to replace them. Whatever the offense might be able to offer, which won't be much, the defense will give it up, and then some. With a non-conference schedule that includes South Carolina, East Carolina, and South Florida, the Wolfpack could be on their way to a 2 or 3 win season........ at best.
Coastal:
Miami: Will the swagger be back? I think so. I really like what Randy Shannon is doing at Miami, and he has a ton of young fast talent around him. Javarris James is on the brink of a national break-out year, and their QB position can only get better with the departure of Kyle Wright. Throw in Graig Cooper as a backup tailback, Sam Shields as a breakaway receiver, and the Canes could have a pretty good offense. Something that hasn't been around for quite some time in Coral Gables. The defense will take some huge hits in the losses of Calais Campbell, Kenny Philips, and Tavares Gooden, but defense has never been a problem at Miami for well over 3 decades. Look for Marcus Forston to have a break-out freshman year on the DL for the 'Canes, and Colin McCarthy will keep the LB tradition at Miami alive and well. The secondary is a bit of a concern, but they have enough 'oldies' to get it done. This will be one of the most improved teams in the country, and I look for the 'Canes to unseat the Hokies as the Coastal Champions in 2008.
North Carolina: Ahead of Virginia Tech you ask? Absolutely. This is one of my huge surprise teams for 2008. The Tar Heels were 4-8 last year under Butch Davis's 1st year guidance. But what is missed in that record is 6 losses that were by a touchdown or less. Much like Illinois in 2006 when they went 2-10, the Tar Heels were very competitive in 2007. They also return everything but the kitchen sink in 19 starters, including the vastly improving TJ Yates at QB. There were only 2 QB's who threw for more yards than TJ Yates in the ACC last year. Matt Ryan and Cullen Harper. WIth 10 starters returning on offense, we should see a serious spike in the point output from Carolina. Last years 21.2 points per game should easily stretch up into the 30's and if they can improve on a defense that gave up 24.5 points per game, which is very much expected, this will be an extremely dangerous team. At the very least, this team will be even more competitive than they were in 2007.
Virginia Tech: It is hard to put the Hokies in the 3 hole in the Coastal, but I feel that they lost way too much talent to the NFL last year. Xavier Adibi and Vince Hall have been mainstays in the Hokie LB corps for the past 3 years. Their talents just can't be replaced overnight. On the offensive side, the tough plugging RB Branden Ore has been dismissed from the team, and their top 4 receivers from last year are gone. They also only return 10 starters to the defending ACC Championship squad. Unless Sean Glennon or Tyrod Taylor has an extremely special year, we should fully expect the Hokies to incur their 1st 4 or more loss season since 2003. I have huge respect for Frank Beamer and Bud Foster, but the improvement of other teams, and the extremely large losses of the Hokies equals out to a rebuilding year in Hokieland. Throw in road games to North Carolina, Florida State, and Miami in conference play and it gets even tougher.
Duke:Duke? Yes, I have Duke in 4th place in the Coastal Division. One of the best QB's you have never heard of is Thaddeus Lewis. He also has a solid target to throw to in Eron Riley. The cupboard for 1st year head coach David Cutcliffe (ex-Mississippi head coach and Tennessee Offensive Coordinator) isn't as bare as people would expect in Durham, NC. Sure they only won 1 game last year, but they were competitive with bowl teams last year in Navy, Virginia, and Wake Forest. They were also very respectable in contests against Northwestern (only win), Miami, and North Carolina. They also return 7 starters including 10 on defense. And defense is where they should improve the most. Look for the brainiacs from Duke to pull out 5 or 6 wins in 2008.
Georgia Tech: The 'Rambling Wreck' only returns 9 starters from a 7-6 campaign. They are introducing a new coach in Paul Johnson, allbeit a good one, and they will be breaking in a new QB, RB, and an entire secondary. Josh Nesbitt and Jonathan Dwyer (QB, RB) could be something special, but they are only sophomores amongst a very inexperienced team. Just ask Notre Dame how well that went for them last year. Throw in the loss of stud LB Philip Wheeler, along with their top 4 tacklers from last year, and this has nothing but rebuilding year written all over it. Paul Johnson will get these guys to compete, but there are too many more talented and experienced teams in the ACC than coaching can overcome. They also play Virginia Tech, Clemson, North Carolina, AND Georgia on the road. A .500 season should put Coach Johnson in line for "Coach of the Year" honors. I don't see that happening.
Virginia: Last year, Virginia was a game away from playing in the ACC Championship game. They also set an NCAA record for most games won by 6 points or less. (That would be 6 for those that are counting.) The Cavs were only 18 points away from being 3-10 instead of 9-4. They also lose one of the best players in the history of the progam in Chris Long. With only 11 starters returning, and the loss of Jameel Sewell (QB) to academics, this looks like a very long season for the Hoos. Starting out the season with USC won't help matters much either. Outside of a date with Richmond, this could very likely be an 11 loss season for Virginia. It probably won't be that bad, but a struggle for 3 or 4 wins is the expectation I have for the Cavaliers this year.
4 down, 2 to go. The ACC is next. The current members of the ACC were finalized before the 2005 season, and with much aniticipation that this would be a super conference to compete with the SEC, Big 12, and Big 10. That has not happened yet. The first 2 years of this super-conference have come with the #### of a ladyfinger on the 4th of July. And last years conference champion, Wake Forest, has a history of being one of the worst football programs in all of College Football. Their successive drubbing by Louisville in the Orange Bowl only added more fuel to fire for ACC bashers.
2007 however, brings some new promise to this conference. The elite teams, or what was expected to be the elite teams, should make some significant strides at getting back to compete with the best teams in College Football. Miami, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Boston College, NC State, Virginia, Maryland, and Georgia Tech were expected to carry this conference into the future as one of the nations elite. This year they need to prove something.
Expect Florida State and Miami to make significant improvements from last year and look for Virginia Tech to be amongst the nations best teams. The rest of the conference can only get better. Look for big improvement from North Carolina, and North Carolina State, while Wake Forest plummets back to reality.
The team breakdowns:
Coastal Division
Virginia Tech: The job that Frank Beamer has done in Blacksburg, VA over the past 20 seasons at Virginia Tech is nothing short of phenomenal. Outside of Bill Snyders resurrection of Kansas State in the late 80's this is the most spectacular turnaround of a football team in the past 40 years. (Look out for Schiano if he continues to stay at Rutgers however.) His success at Virginia Tech will no doubt garner him inductance into the College Football Hall of Fame. In 2007 Mr. Beamer will field 16 returning starters from a 10-3 squad that should have been last years ACC Champions if they didn't play a so poorly at Boston College. The scheduel this year doesn't get any easier as they travel to Baton Rouge to take on the talented LSU Tigers on Sept. 8th. They also draw Florida State out of the Atlantic Division and play @ Clemson, @ Georgia Tech, Florida State, Miami, and @ Virginia. That is 4 tough road games facing the Hokies this year.
However, they have the talent to play with anyone this year. Sean Glennon is a very capable QB, and Branden Ore runs as hard as anybody in the country. Eddie Royal and Josh Morgan are two of the better receivers you have never heard of, and expect Royal to be playing on Sundays. But, the real strength of this team, as is most years for the Hokies, will be defense and special teams. The Hokies only gave up 11.0 ppg last year and tallied 4 shoutouts. Xavier Adibi and Vince Hall are two of the best linebackers in the country and Brandon Flowers is one of the best lock-down CB's in the country. This team is a scary Saturday opponent for anybody in the country, and look to be the early season favorites in the entire ACC.
Miami:Larry Coker is gone. Thank God. He had about as much control of this team as much as PacMan Joes has control over his libido. Bring in Randy Shannon. Shannon has been at Miami for the past 14 years, and needs to bring some discipline to this club in a hurry. The fight with Florida International last year was an absolute disgrace to the entire University and all of college football. I hear new rules have been put into place, but I'll wait till I see it. This has been the cockiest most unruly football team for the past 25 years, whether they win or lose. Its time for some pie holes to be shut, and play some football.
With that said, Coker didn't leave the kitchen empty. This team has talent, and lots of it. If there was one thing Coker did well was he kept the strong tradition in Miami of solid recruiting classes. The 'Canes bring back 16 starters from an extemely disappointing 2006 squad that had to hang on in their bowl game for a victory over Nevada 21-20. Kyle Wright, the former #1 rated QB coming out of High School is now a senior and he has some talent around him to give the ball to. Javarris James is ready to explode at RB, and Lance Leggett and Sam Shields are solid WR's. Look for DajLeon Farr to step in at TE and continue the strong tradition at MIami of great TE's.
The defense at Miami is their typical fare. Fast, in your face, and attacking. Calais Campbell is probably the best DE in College Football, and will harrass the QB till the cows come home. They'll need Tavares Gooden to step up at LB this year, and look for the 'Canes to have one of the best secondaries in all the country led by another Free Safety Kenny Phillips in their long line of hard hitting intimidating safeties. Their defense will be their calling card, and expect this offense to put up moren than 19.6 ppg, in fact look for that to maybe reach upwards to 28 ppg. If the Hurricanes can do that, they will compete for the ACC title.
Virginia: Al Groh looked like he was on pace to build an elite program in the early 2000's. Bringing in recruiting classes left and right. The ex-NFL head coach hasn't quite taken this team to the next level amid all his early hype. He is now entering his 7th season at Virginia, and is fielding a team that is pretty similar to his first 6 teams. Good, but far from great. They have some good TE's and O-linemen, but without the speciality players that can play on Sundays, the Cavaliers don't have the talent to match up with the elite in the ACC. They'll beat a team or two they shouldn't, lose to a team or two they shouldn't and end up at around 8-4 or 7-5. Even though they return 19 starters, the resurgence of other teams in the league makes their outlook a little less bright.
Georgia Tech: Calvin Johnson is gone. But so is Reggie Ball. I'm sure Georgia Tech fans were counting the days until he was no longer on campus. One of the dumbest things you'll remember was that Reggie started for 4 years at QB for Georgia Tech, but in their 2006 bowl game, which was held after 1st semester grades were released, Reggie became academically ineligible to play in his final game as a Yellow Jacket. What an absolute joke. Enough about that ####, what do the Jackets have to offer in 2007 after an ACC Championship game appearance in 2006?
Tashard Choice is back, and he is one of the best RB's in the nation. They'll have to replace Ball, but I sense an immediate upgrade just by default. Calvin Johnson will be impossible to replace. 6'5" 235 lb. receivers with hands of glue and 4.25 speed with a 44" vertical just don't come around that often. In fact, never. James Johnson is okay, but they'll need someone else to step up and be the true leader of this receivng corps, that remains to be seen. They return their entire offensive line, which will help tremendously as Bennet, or whoever starts, learns the ropes at QB, and help them find some receivers as well. Look for Choice to carry the load for the Jackets this year. On defense they have 8 guys back from a pretty good stop unit last year. Philip Wheeler is a mainstay at MLB, and they also field a pretty formiddable front 4 as well. You shouldn't expect much of a drop off, if any, from this squad, and don't be surprised if they represent the Coastal Division in Jacksonville for the ACC Championship.
North Carolina: Butch Davis is back in College Football where he belongs. However, he has the task of cleaning up the mess that John Bunting left behind. Coming off of a 3 win season that included a 52-7 shellacking from Clemson, a narrow victory over Furman, and shutout losses to Virginia and Georgia Tech, things don't look bright for 2007. This will be a huge rebulding year for Butch and company, and this team will struggle with a young and inexperienced QB against some fine defensive teams in the ACC. No doubt they will improve on both sides of the ball, just because of Davis, but don't expect much more than a .500 season, and most likely less for the Tar Heels in 2007.
Duke: OUCH!!!! 0-12 in 2006 including losses to Richmond, Vanderbilt, and Navy at home. They return all 11 starters on offense, but this same crew only managed 14.9 ppg in 2006. Ted Roof has managed to win 5 games in his 1st 4 years with the Blue Devils, and one should expect that trend to continue. How this guy keeps his job is simply amazing. Obviously the Dukies hit the books in the fall gearing up for basketball season. With games @ Virginia, @ Miami, @ Florida State, and @ Notre Dame, expect another possible winless season for this ballclub. The NCAA should seriously consider the death penalty for this program who has gone 9-71 over the past 7 seasons, and have obviously made no plans on getting any better. This is the biggest joke of any BCS conference team.
Atlantic Division
Florida State: The Seminoles are off one of their worst seasons in the Bobby Bowden era. He returns for his 32nd season as head coach at FSU, and is in a chase for most College Football victories with Joe Paterno at Penn State. Bobby returns 14 starters from last year, and will field one of the best defenses in the country that returns 8 starters. Buster Davis and Lawrence Timmons will undoubtedly be missed on defense, but their front 4 will be one of the best in country, and a secondary that will be lead by hard hitting Myron Rolle. Also look for Derek Nicholson to have a break out season at LB for the 'Noles. The biggest improvement will be on the offensive side of the ball. Drew Weatherford and Xavier Lee will battle it out for the starting position, and expect the winner of that battle to be more protective of the football. Lorenzo Booker is gone at RB, but don't feel sorry for poor Bobby, excellent recruiting will allow him to reload at RB, and look for DeCody ####g, and Greg Carr to be one of the best receiving duo's in the country. Expect the biggest improvements to be made up front on the Offensive Line. Weatherford has been persecuted over the past couple of years for not getting it done, but in his defense, his O-Line was much of the blame. Look for this unit to be much better, and look for the 'Noles to rise back to power and compete for an ACC title in 2007.
Clemson: Last year was as good a chance as any for Clemson to claim the ACC title. However, Tommy Bowden proved once again that he isn't his daddy and lost 4 of their last 5 games, including a bowl loss to Kentucky to finish the year. The Tigers were ranked as high as 10th at point in time last year, and were a bubble team National Title contender. They lose Will Proctor at QB, but that might be a good thing. They also lose their big-time receiver Chansi Stuckey on offense as well. However the O-line should be effective and the return of James Davis and CJ Spiller gives the Tigers the best 1-2 punch in the entire country. They return 7 starters on defense, and should have another solid stop unit in 2006. Expect the Tigers to be much like they were in 2006, pretty darn good, but just not good enough and with Tommy still at the helm, they will lose a close ballgame to somebody when it really matters. You can count on that.
North Carolina State: Chuck Amato, the shades, and the mafia have left the building. Bring in the tough-minded Tom O'Brien from Boston College. In a shocking move, Tom O'Brien moved from a team that he had built a good foundation with, in Boston College, to a division rival? I have no idea what this guy is thinking. NC State has been swirling down the toilet faster than last nights dinner the past 4 seasons, and Tom inherits a team with 3 wins, as opposed to his Boston College boys who only had 3 losses. Talk about a change of face.
However, the Wolfpack does have talent. Chuck was just never good at utilizing that talent. Tom O'Brien is a master at motivating teams to play, and year in and year out gets the most out of his players. Expect some dramatic improvement in the Wolfpack in year one. Andre Brown and Toney Baker will make a nice 1-2 punch at RB, and Darrell Blackman is a solid go to WR. Expect QB Daniel Evans to improve dramatically under the tutelege of O'Brien as well. I'm going to call for the Wolfpack to be one of the most improved teams in the ACC, and have a legitimate shot at going to a bowl game in 2007. The biggest problem facing the Wolfpack is a brutal schedule. With games @ Boston College, Clemson, Louisville, @ Florida State, @ Miami, and @ Wake Forest, NC State will be challenged. I'll still call for 6 or 7 seven wins.
Maryland: The Fridge, Ralph Friedgen enters his 7th year as head coach for the Maryland Terps. In 2001 and 2002, when Ralph transformed the Terps into 10-1 and 10-3 title contenders, all the world was a buzz in College Park. However successive 5-6 campaigns in 2004 and 2005 shed some light that maybe things aren't as they seem. The Terps rebounded in 2006 with a 9-4 record and a bowl victory, but with all the teams in this conference that were down last year, someone had to win some games.
Sam Hollenbach is gone at QB, but Josh Portis the Florida transfer will take over the reins and has a ton of talent. He also has one of the best receivers in the ACC to throw to in Darrius Heyward-Bey. Lance Ball is a bowling ball at RB, and the O-Line returns pretty much in tact. However, the defense will be the question mark in 2007. Erin Henderson is a stud LB and Isaih Gardner is a solid CB. The rest of this unit has little bit to be desired. Expect the Terps to give up some points in 2007, and if they want to win 7+ games they will have to score some points. A non-conference schedule that includes Rutgers and West Virginia is daunting as well as confernce tilts against @ Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Virginia, Clemson, Boston College, and @ Florida State, and @ NC State may prove to be too much. A return to a 5-6 record may be a good season for these chaps.
Wake Forest: The dream 2006 season is over, and expect the Cinderella slipper to fall off of the Demon Deacons in 2007. Jim Grobe did one of the best coaching jobs in the country last year, and returns 14 starters from that squad. However, last years 10-3 record was done with more smoke and mirrors than anything as they averaged 21.5 ppg on offense, and gave up 15.4 ppg on defense. With 9 starters returning on offense and 5 on defense, and the resurgence of other teams in the conference, these numbers could drastically change. Riley Skinner is a nice QB, but things fell the Deacs way last year. That likely won't happen again, and look for their defense to get pounded this year, as their heart and soul leader Jon Abbate is gone, along with his 120 tackles. Wake Forest's schedule includes Nebraska, @ Boston College, Florida State, Maryland, @ Virginia, @ Clemson, and NC State. A .500 record looks highly likely, and a return to the cellar in the Atlantic is very probable this year.
Boston College: This team reminds me of the little engine that could. Lacking in talent to their superior brethren in the ACC, the BC Eagles keep churning out 8 and 9 win seasons. However, their fabled coach Tom O'Brien has sided with the enemy this year, and they bring in Jeff Jagodzinski for his 1st year in Chestnut Hill. The very capable Matt Ryan is back at QB, along with 15 other starters. So things should look bright. I'm calling for the opposite. The players in place at BC, were Tom O'Brien guys, and now have to learn a whole new system. BC also plays all the heavyweights in the ACC in Wake Forest, NC State, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Maryland, Clemson, and Miami. A team that went 10-3 last year, has the opportunity to lose every conference game this year. However, i just don't see that happening, and the Eagles should be somewhere around .500.
Well, there you have it, the 5th installment. The ACC. Another conference that will see some teams uprise this year, and the return to power of the heavyweights as well.
Here are my picks for 2007:
Atlantic: 1. Virginia Tech 2. Miami t3. Georgia Tech t3. Virginia 5. North Carolina 6. Duke
Coastal: 1. Florida State 2. Clemson 3. NC State t4. Maryland t4. Wake Forest t4. Boston College
The ACC entered the Big Dance with 7 representatives. The Big 10 entered with 6. After 1 weekend of play, they are left with 2.NOT 2 EACH. 2 TOTAL. And by the way, the 2 teams remaining are 1 seeds and should be EXPECTED to at least make it to the Sweet Sixteen. Not to mention Ohio State is still in the process of cleaning out their shorts after their victory over Xavier in round 2.
The ACC had North Carolina as a 1 seed. They expectedly romped in their 2 games this weekend. However, the rest of teams? Nothing to write home about. Duke was host to possibly the biggest upset in the tournament, losing to VCU in round 1. (Although I'll argue later that Wisconsin's was worse.) Maryland didn't look good in either game they played, and Georgia Tech may as well have stayed in Atlanta. Virginia and Virginia Tech don't have any excuses either. They were just beat by better and hungrier teams.
The Big 10 probably made a better showing than the ACC, outside of Wisconsin and Ohio State. Purdue as a 9 seed played very well in both games, and Illinois as a 12 seed only losing by 2 in the first round is respectable. Indiana played tough in both games as well, before falling to a tough UCLA squad. And MIchigan State had a suprisingly easy victory over Marquette (or is it Marquit?) before getting pounded by a superior Carolina ballclub. But, the two best teams out of the BIg 10 were FAR from impressive. Wisconsin ran out of gas against UNLV when it was looking like they were going to take control. They are now on the receiving end of the biggest upset in the tourney. Ohio State's season most likely should be over. Xavier had the Big 10 Champs beat, and let them off the hook.
So what does this mean? Does this mean that the SEC, Pac 10, Big East, and Big 12 are better conferences? Probably not. 1 weekend of basketball does not define a season. Personally I thought that the Big East and Pac 10 were the best conferences from top to bottom entering tournament play anyway. Little that happened this weekend has changed my mind.
I am more shocked at how poorly some of these teams from the big conferences played this weekend. Yes, pretty much all of the horses have advanced, and Cinderella is no where to be found. In fact this is the 'chalkiest' tournament since 1995, and the only Sweet Sixteen that I can remember that does not have a double digit seed still in the fight. I guess I kind of expected a higher seeded BCS conference team to make some noise. They made some noise all right. A big sigh, and they all left with little more than a wimper.
What I did notice, is that there may be a change in power. The Pac 10 has 3 quality teams left in the tournament. And with Washington, Stanford, and Arizona having down years, this conference may be something to reckon with for quite some time. They have a TON of great coaches and a bevy of talent. UCLA is not a 1 man wrecking crew out West like everyone used to think. There are some other teams and players who can play ball out West. And they also hail from the Pac 10.
So as the ACC and Big 10 are licking their wounds, I won't remember this tournament as being the year these conferences looked so poor. I will remember this tournament as the year the Pac 10 laid down a new law and proclaimed itself the best basketball conference in the land. OJ Mayo, the best high school player is headed to USC next year. Ben Howland will continue to rev up the engine in Westwood and expect Lute and company to be back next year. With Oregon, Washington, Washington State, and Stanford on board as well; the Pac 10 should have some excellent ballclubs to watch again next year.
Has the power moved out West to the Pac 10? I don't know, but they are making a huge statement for their case right now. We'll have to wait till next year to be sure.
To kick it off, I'll start with the ACC Conference, and start dwindling down the other 5 BCS conferences behind them. Why the ACC 1st you ask? Well, I'll start with what I believe to be the weakest conference and then work my way up to what I consider the strongest BCS conference. And until the ACC can win a BCS game, they will get 1st.........er, last........ billing in this blog.
Boston College: Matt Ryan is gone, and so is the dream 2007 season for the Eagles. Jeff Jagodzinski only returns 10 starters, and is without the 2nd greatest QB in Boston College history. (Yes, Doug Flutie would be #1). Along with Ryan; Andre Callender, LV Whitworth, and Jamie Silva are gone as well. I hate to say a 'rebuilding' year, but that is exactly what Eagles fans are in store for this year. They will likely get some glimpses of the future out of Josh Haden at RB, but the loss of Ryan will just be too great to replace. Losing a guy that threw the ball 654 times last year will be just too much to overcome.
North Carolina State: Tom O'Brien's move from BC to NC State wasn't exactly a raging success. And don't look for it to get any better in 2008. With only 10 starters returning to a team that went 5-7, the outlook for 2008 doesn't look real bright. The defense gave up 28.3 points per game last year, and it will likely get worse before it gets better. The 'Pack' lost their 3 top tacklers from last year, and don't have much talent to replace them. Whatever the offense might be able to offer, which won't be much, the defense will give it up, and then some. With a non-conference schedule that includes South Carolina, East Carolina, and South Florida, the Wolfpack could be on their way to a 2 or 3 win season........ at best. 
North Carolina: Ahead of Virginia Tech you ask? Absolutely. This is one of my huge surprise teams for 2008. The Tar Heels were 4-8 last year under Butch Davis's 1st year guidance. But what is missed in that record is 6 losses that were by a touchdown or less. Much like Illinois in 2006 when they went 2-10, the Tar Heels were very competitive in 2007. They also return everything but the kitchen sink in 19 starters, including the vastly improving TJ Yates at QB. There were only 2 QB's who threw for more yards than TJ Yates in the ACC last year. Matt Ryan and Cullen Harper. WIth 10 starters returning on offense, we should see a serious spike in the point output from Carolina. Last years 21.2 points per game should easily stretch up into the 30's and if they can improve on a defense that gave up 24.5 points per game, which is very much expected, this will be an extremely dangerous team. At the very least, this team will be even more competitive than they were in 2007.
Duke: Duke? Yes, I have Duke in 4th place in the Coastal Division. One of the best QB's you have never heard of is Thaddeus Lewis. He also has a solid target to throw to in Eron Riley. The cupboard for 1st year head coach David Cutcliffe (ex-Mississippi head coach and Tennessee Offensive Coordinator) isn't as bare as people would expect in Durham, NC. Sure they only won 1 game last year, but they were competitive with bowl teams last year in Navy, Virginia, and Wake Forest. They were also very respectable in contests against Northwestern (only win), Miami, and North Carolina. They also return 7 starters including 10 on defense. And defense is where they should improve the most. Look for the brainiacs from Duke to pull out 5 or 6 wins in 2008.
Virginia: Last year, Virginia was a game away from playing in the ACC Championship game. They also set an NCAA record for most games won by 6 points or less. (That would be 6 for those that are counting.) The Cavs were only 18 points away from being 3-10 instead of 9-4. They also lose one of the best players in the history of the progam in Chris Long. With only 11 starters returning, and the loss of Jameel Sewell (QB) to academics, this looks like a very long season for the Hoos. Starting out the season with USC won't help matters much either. Outside of a date with Richmond, this could very likely be an 11 loss season for Virginia. It probably won't be that bad, but a struggle for 3 or 4 wins is the expectation I have for the Cavaliers this year.
