The World According to Garp
by: Nostradomus
College Football 2008 : Week 8 Preview
Oct 15, 2008 | 6:30PM | report this

I cannot tell a lie.  Last week my picks can be summed up with one word:  PATHETIC.  So pathetic even a Caveman could do it.  So pathetic any #### with a keyboard could pick them.  All told, I finished up 4-9 ATS.  A 3 year-old could do that well. 

For the season that puts me at 44-35-3.  Profitable at 55.7%, but now very much middling and on the brink of the 'Mendosa Line'. 

Time for some positive thinking, and the gumption to get the nose back to the grindstone. 

Without further adieu, I bring you my Week 8 selections.  As always, only the toughest and most interesting games will fill out my opinions.

Thursday:

BYU @ TCU (+ 1):  Unbelievable, but this game is bigger than the Florida State @ NC State game on this night's slate.  BYU is riding high and undefeated as the 8th ranked team in the country.  TCU, statistically, has the #1 and #2 ranked defense in the nation in terms of yards and points given up respectively.  No doubt this is a game in which contrast of styles will clash.  BYU has a high-powered offense with an above average defense, while TCU has a stout defense and a ball-control offense.  Something has to break in this one, right?  TCU's only loss was against Oklahoma in which they gave up a bevy of big plays and 4 TO's compared to 0 for OU.  And the final score was still only 35-10.  BYU has been struggling a bit as of late, thus the line movement from BYU favored by 3 to a mere 1 since it opened.  I'm not buying, and will go against the general public in this one.  BYU just hasn't been challenged mentally in the past couple of weeks to be prepared.  They should be fully prepared for this one, and have enough defense to keep the Horned Frogs offense at bay, even if their offense struggles.  It should be a good one, but I'll side with the better team........BYU 24 TCU 17.

Saturday:

Wake Forest @ Maryland (+ 1.5):  I'll be honest.  I can't figure out this Wake Forest team.  Yes, I believe they are good, but the question is:  How good?  Maryland can be a very tough team when prepared and mistake-free.  But Wake just doesn't allow a team to be mistake-free.  Alphonso Smith may be the best cover corner in the country and he baits even the best of QB's into mistakes.  If Maryland can't run the ball, they are in serious trouble.  I see that as a very likley problem, even at home.  Not my favorite of contests, but I'll side with the road favorites and take Grobe over the Fridge......Wake 22  Maryland 13.

Georgia Tech @ Clemson (+2):  Seems way too easy to take Georgia Tech after all the turmoil surrounding Bowden's resignation/dismissal from Clemson.  I won't bite.  Even Clemson players have spoken openly about their dislike for Bowden's tactics.  Look for Clemson players to regroup and put together a solid effort after the departure of their embattled coach.....Clemson 27  Georgia Tech 17.

Virginia Tech @ Boston College (-3):  I'll gladly take the 3 points with the road dogs and play......Virginia Tech 21 Boston College 17.

Mississippi @ Alabama (-13):  Ole Miss was getting 24 from Florida in their upset of the Gators a couple of weeks ago.  Now they only get 13 from the 2nd ranked team in the country?  Something smells funny doesn't it?  That funny smell is Alabama's sometimes less than efficient offense.  Their defense isn't as good as most would think either.  The Tide have been far from a smoke and mirrors team, but they have been very opportunistic in their games thus far.  Personally, I hate the game, but like the dreaded O/U total of 49 1/2.  From the line given they are saying that Bama wins something like 31-18.  I simply can't see that much scoring in this contest.  I'll take UNDER the total and stay far away from a scary 13 point post for Bama..........Alabama 27  Ole Miss 14.

Vanderbilt @ Georgia (-15):  Even as pathetic as Vandy's offense is, I still have to side with them (don't I?).  Even when the line moves from an opening 13 to the now stated 15.  Time for Georgia to impress.  Their 'great' road win over a 2-4 Arizona State team now looks rather mediocre, at best.  Their arse-handing defeat to Alabama should be the reality of this squad so far.  Unless Georgia keeps from turning the ball over to the ball-hawking Vandy 'D', this one should go UNDER the total of 45.  Throw in the fact that Vandy might not score, and it seems like a very sensible play.  I like Georgia to cover, but will not make a play on it.......Georgia 22  Vandy 6.

USC @ Washington State (+42 1/2):  I'm putting this game in here because I can't remember the last time I saw a ROAD team favored by 7 TD's in a College Football game.  I do remember the days of home teams being favored by 50+, but not against a conference opponent on the road.  Yes, Washington State is THAT bad.  Of note, however, is the last time USC was favored by 40 or more they were beat STRAIGHT UP by Stanford last year.  After the 28-0 shutout over Arizona State last week in which the teams combined for 9 TO's, look for the Trojans to be very sharp early against the worst BCS school in the land.  Even in Pullman.  The only saving grace for WSU is if it snows........ alot.  And that likely won't help.  In 4 conference games Wazzu has been on the wrong side of the following numbers:  66-3, 63-14, 66-13, and 28-3.  The last against a depleted UCLA squad.  2 of those humbling defeats have been at home.  Now onto another humbler,..........I'll make the O/U play in this one.  I'll take the OVER in the 55 1/2, and look for USC to pack it in by half and let the Cougars score just enough to put it over the total...........USC 52  Washington State 10.

Ohio State @ Michigan State (+ 3):  Toughest game on the card.  I will simply look for a late scorefest, or early one, to cover the 41 1/2 on the OVER/UNDER that is given. I'll take the OVER......... Ohio State 27 Michigan State 24.

California @ Arizona (+2):  Night game @ Arizona.  All I need to know.  Take the home dog.........Arizona 31  Cal 24.

Game of the Week:

Missouri @ Texas (-5 1/2):  Simple play for me.  Missouri has never beaten Oklahoma or Texas in Big 12 conference play.  Media, fans, and experts are taking Missouri in the upset.  I'll take Texas, to stay focused in a game that I believed that Missouri would attain their 1st loss anyway.............Texas 41  Missouri 27.

The chimpanzee has spoken.

That is how I see it, how about you?

As always, best of luck to you and yours, and good luck to your squad for the rest of the year.

 

9 Comments | Add a comment   categories: College Football, NCAA FB, Nostradomus
 
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vegcap7
Oct 15, 2008
6:44 PM
YIKES!
nos-love ur posts and we're normally on the same page...not on any games yet, but I like TCU, Maryland, Ga Tech, Ole Miss +13.5, Vandy +15, Michigan St +3.5 & und. Good luck as either the worm will turn for you on ur page, or my wallet will be fatter (or leaner like last week).

vegcap7
Oct 15, 2008
6:45 PM
I do like the Husker this week @ -6.5 as well for ya.

Indobear
Oct 15, 2008
11:13 PM
If Harvey Unga can run on TCU, I think that we will be OK.

BYU.

Norcalfella
Oct 16, 2008
4:30 AM
Nos - I didn't get a shot to comment on your picks last week. Firefox doesn't work and I'm not always willing to re-open it all with IE. Giving IE8 a shot here so far so good anyway....

I was looking at your picks and I saw 5-6-1 ATS had you played 'em all. I think you lost a win SC/KY playing the O/U instead of spread for 4-7-1. Anyway I don't get it. UGa/TEN was 26-14 which is a push. I didn't think pushes lost money.

7 TD favorite? I've never heard of expecting a team to miss on every PAT, but uh, okay. You must think the USC kicker reallllyyyyyy sucks. Most would say 6. I kid... but Wazzu won't score 10 even if USC *STARTED* with their defensive backups. Better hope for 56-0.

I like BYU too, hard to see them as a 'dog in this one. Their D is good enough and QB a lot better. I wouldn't touch that one or Wake/MD though. REALLY would avoid GT/Clem (first we disagree on). Love VaTech +3 that's like stealing. Tyrod didn't play in opener people forget.

Georgia by 2 TD is a generous spread for a team playing without their two best tackles coming into the season against a very capable D. Not sure.

OSU/MSU over 41.5. Maybe. Tough game to figure. Lots of defense.

Hate to say it, but AZ +2 (or straight up) is a good play. This is Cal's toughest game left other than @USC and that includes Oregon who they will crush and I mean crush.

I think Mizzou has it in 'em. First time for everything.

bayoudog
Oct 16, 2008
7:21 AM
Nos, well done. I like Texas but I fully expect and I am thinking melt-down game for the horns this week. I am not overly impressed with Mizzou nor Texas but I do believe the Big 12 to be a we bit tougher than the SEC this year.

Ole Miss at Bama I agree with your assessment. Ole Miss is my upset team this year. Houston Nutt is a very good coach and the running rebs have talent, lots of talent. Saban has had problems with teams from Mississippi historically. I suspect a dog fight with Ole Miss sneaking in for the win.

So does Clemson revive itself this week? It seems to happen when a coach gets canned during the season.

I like Wake Forest and Maryland, to me, seems lost at times. Play well then look like a jr varsity team. I like Wake

pete_nice
Oct 17, 2008
10:35 AM
Looks like you cut it a little short this week pal.

I think I only agree with you on the USC and OSU games. Georgia will probably win, but they won't cover.

I would also like to predict that TCU will upset BYU, after declaring recently on another blog that BYU would win out. Yes, I am flip-flopping and it feels good!

Bye-bye BYU.

Norcalfella
Oct 17, 2008
3:53 PM
Nos - FYI my picks have been picked up here. You have to copy the link manually I'm not exactly Dr. HTML over here.

http://www.fantasyplayers.com/colle
ge_fb/FeedItem.asp?FEED_ITEM_ID=515
18

StevoinHTown
Oct 17, 2008
4:07 PM
Nostradamus...good call on Texas-Missouri...callin' the score rarely works but I'll throw sumpthin' out there..48-27..Texas..

vegcap7
Oct 18, 2008
5:50 PM
well nos, like I said either the worm would turn for you, or my wallet would be fatter...looks like I got lucky and was on the right side this week.

I did take your Huskers as well as Va Tech too. Thx for dispatching that team for me although the jury is out still on Va tech. Only game I missed was Mich St..what a drubbing. GL

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