The annual Run for the Roses is upon us, and is only a mere 6 days away. The 134th running of the Kentucky Derby is scheduled to be run on May 3rd @ 5:00 EDT, and yours truly is going to be there.
You can have your Super Bowl, your World Series, even your NBA Finals. Me? I'll take the Kentucky Derby as my favorite sporting event, and won't even bat an eye. Regardless of what happens, the Derby always delivers. As they say, the "Most Exciting 2 Minutes in All of Sports".
Coming into 2008, the Derby favorite was the undefeated War Pass. And why not. His dominating performance in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile announced him as such. He simply parked a field by 4 and 3/4's lengths that was supposed to be the best 2 year olds in the world. Pyro was his only challenger, and that wasn't even close. The 3rd place horse, Kodiak Kowboy was a mere 16 3/4's lengths behind War Pass.
Then in his 2nd start in 2008, War Pass ran into some trouble in the Tampa Bay Derby on March 15th. For the 1st time in his career, War Pass was not on the lead. For the 1st time in his career, War Pass was going to have to pass someone to win. What happened next pretty much shocked the horse racing world. Not only did War Pass not pass ANYBODY, but he retreated and finished dead last against a pretty weak field of contestants. He simply was never a factor. He was then shipped to Aqueduct to compete in the Wood Memorial. He had a ton of questions to answer. Although he ran a gutty race, he still finished second to a 'closing' Tale of Ekati. I use the term closing very generously. Tale of Ekati simply passed him by default as War Pass was seriously faltering coming down the stretch. Now War Pass has incurred an injury, and will not even compete in the Kentucky Derby.
So who is in this year's field?
Mike Watchmaker will likely make the undefeated Big Brown as the pre-race favorite. Colonel John and Pyro will also see heavy wagering action as well in what looks to be one of the weakest Kentucky Derby fields in quite some time. The probable favorite, Big Brown, has only run 3 career races, including only 1 race in which he has run longer than a mile. That is very disturbing in the fact that every horse in this years field will be running a Mile and a quarter race for the very first time in their lives. Stamina is one of the key factors in determining a Derby winner. The first question any bettor of the Derby has to ask themselves is whether their selected horse can run a mile and a quarter. This simple question often eliminates over half of the field.
The list of entrants has not been finalized, but here are the likely candidates. I have 21 horses listed, but only 20 will get in.
Pyro : Even at odds of 5 to 1, many a wiseguy will be on this Asmussen trained colt who is well seasoned, and has proven that he can win at Churchill and run in any assortment of racing styles: on the lead, stalking, or even as a deep closer. Versatility is needed when racing in the Derby. Definite contender.
Tale of Ekati: His win at Aqueduct was more by the default of War Pass than anything else. However, many racing afficianados have been waiting for this Colt to blossom. After his win the Belmont Futurity last year, this Tagg trained Colt has been a bit of a disappointment. His win in the Wood may be just the ticket to unleash this extremely talented colt.
Colonel John: The West Coast champion(?) has been impressive throughout his 1st 6 races, winning 4, and finishing 2nd twice. The big concern is that he has not been dominating, and West Coast horses have not fared well in the Derby as of late. He will likely need a career effort to hit the board. His odds at anything less than 10 to 1 seem a bit overpriced for me. The only horses he has beaten in this field are Monba and Bob Black Jack. The last, at the wire in the 1st time that colt ran over a mile, much less a mile and an eigth. Not too mention, Georgia Boy, who is not running is likely the best colt out west anyway.
####ego: 5 lifetime starts, 3 wins and 2 seconds. This horse held tough down the stretch in his last in the Arkansas Derby. He is improving every race, and may be primed to pop a big one on Saturday. The big question for ####ego is his pedigree. He is simply not geared to run a mile and a quarter.
Big Brown: Tough not to like this colt when you compare him to the others. Has been impressive in all 3 of his outings, and romped to a 5 length victory despite the 12 hole post and torrid fractions in the Florida Derby. Bar none, this is the most talented horse in the field, but a horse has never won the Derby with only 3 lifetime starts entering the race. A huge hurdle he will have to overcome.
Z Humor: Hard to see this colt being much of a factor for the win. Finishing 3rd, 4th, and 5th in his last 3 races, Z Humor has proven that he cannot beat a lot of the horses in this field. He will likely need a perfect trip just to hit the board. The only factor on his side is that he is bred to run the distance, thus he should not falter coming down the stretch, and may have something more in the tank than we have seen thus far.
Monba: This colt looked like he was done after a 12th place finish in the Fountain of Youth. Suprisingly he came back to beat 5 of his rivals in this race to capture the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. Those rivals include Pyro, Cool Coal Man, Visionaire, Big Truck, and Cowboy Cal. Pletcher is arguably the best trainer in the world, but Prado leaving this mount has to be a concern. Another note is that the Keeneland victory was slow and also on PolyTrack.
Court Vision: If you are looking for a deep closer this is your horse. This colt has also had problems in his last two, but still managed to hit the board. He had a sizzling work on the 17th, and has won on this track before. Gomez has won the Derby before in the irons, and Mott is one of the most well-respected trainers in the country. He will likely go off at odds of 15 to 1 or better. Very intriguing, and has the pedigree to go the distance.
Z Fortune: Tough horse to gauge. Has not won in his last 3 starts, and even when running against much lesser competition. Did run a strong race for a 2nd to Pyro in the Risen Star and 2nd to ####ego in the Arkansas Derby. Asmussen is a great trainer, but this guy just seems to be a notch or two below many in this race.
Adriano: Hasn't really beaten anybody of note, and when he stepped up to stiff competition in the Fountain of Youth, he was simply never a factor. Don't read too much into the Lane's End Stakes win at Turfway, that was a less than stellar field and it was run in an extremely sluggish time. Looks like a career effort is needed just to hit the board. Since he is a stalker, that just doesn't seem very likely to happen.
Recapturetheglory: The win in the Illinois Derby has to be respected. He took the lead and put many of these away down the stretch while romping to a 4 length victory. That was just the race this colt needed. You will likely get this guy at odds of 20 to 1 or better, and past Derby champions have used a romp in the Illinois Derby as a path to success before. A definite longshot contender that should be on or close to the lead from the start. Breeding says he can go the distance.
Smooth Air: Has done no worse than 3rd in 7 lifetime starts, and finished a respectable 2nd to Big Brown in the Florida Derby although he was 5 lengths behind. The major question for this guy is the distance. I just can see him going a mile and a quarter, and he won't be on the lead anyway. Tough to like, and will likely be at 50 to 1 odds or more.
Cool Coal Man: Very talented colt who was the winner of the Fountain of Youth Stakes against a very strong field. His falter in the Toyota Blue Grass at Keeneland can be forgiven since it was on PolyTrack. The disturbing news is his 7th place finish the only time he has run at Churchill. His worst performance in his career. If you feel the Fountain of Youth is the true bearing of this colt, then he is a definite contender. Tough horse to gauge, but should be a serious consideration for the win and on any exotic ticket. You will also get some serious odds of 30 to 1 or better.
Anak Nakal: Another Nick Zito entry that just hasn't shown much in 2008 with finishes of 5th, 7th, and 8th in his last 3 races. But Zito isn't giving up on this Colt just yet. We have been waiting for this colt to fire in 2008, and he has won on this track before. If you are looking for a SERIOUS long shot, this might be your ticket. Likely to go off at more than 50 to 1. Breeding says he will handle the distance. Big question is if he can get into contention coming into the stretch? Highly unlikely that he can improve by 20 lengths, but this horse can close, and does have talent.
Eight Belles: Ahhhhh...... a filly. We have not had a filly in the Kentucky Derby since Silverbulletday back in 1999. Don't count this lady out, we all learned a lesson in last year's Belmont Stakes when Rags to Riches put the boys away at the mile and a half distance. This filly has already ran 6 career races over a mile in distance and has won her last four. She may run in the Kentucky Oaks on friday, but don't count her out from running against the boys. If she does, she should be very competitive, and could even pull a shocker and win. Larry Jones is a great trainer, and this horse could put some ####e into this race. Consider her at the least in any exotic wagers.
Cowboy Cal: Will need to be on the lead to have a shot, and even so, it is highly unlikely he can finish the mile and a quarter distance. His best chance would be to hang on and hit the board, but I doubt he even has the lead. Will need a great post, and a great trip to even be a factor. He will likely turn into a miler sometime this year.
Behindatthebar: That was a big time close at Keeneland in his last, and in a pretty good time as well. This colt has basically come out of nowhere in the past month, but looks like he can be ready to unload a big one on Saturday. With Pletcher guiding and Flores on the mount, you have to give this horse some serious consideration. He'll be coming late, and if fractions up front are torrid, he should be in the mix. At 25 to 1 or better, another intriguing longshot contender.
Visionaire: Tough to like. A closer who doesn't like the distance. Has also struggled against many of these before. Wouldn't be surprised if he gets pulled for a different race.
Big Truck: His win in the Tampa Bay Derby may be about as good as this horse can do. And that won't even put him into the top 10 on Saturday. Hard to see this guy even hitting the board. Look elsewhere.
Bob Black Jack: I hope this guy gets in. Primarily thought of as a sprinter, this colt ran a strong 2nd to Colonel John in the Santa Anita Derby in his 2nd effort going more than a mile. The World Record Holder at 6 furlongs, this colt could set some torrid fractions and may cause some big problems for Big Brown if he gets caught up with him. This guy could be a huge factor in the pace of this race if he gets in. Other horses such as War Emblam have 'stolen' the Derby in the past by getting to a comfortable lead with generous fractions. His effort in the Santa Anita Derby could have been just the ticket to give this guy the needed stamina to cover the mile and a quarter. If he gets a good post, he could be a serious contender.
Denis of Cork: The likely odd man out would get some serious wiseguy heat if he gets in. With only 4 lifetime starts, and 3 wins, this horse has some tactical speed that many others don't possess. His victory in the Southwest Stakes in which he closed from 18 lengths back has to be respected. Big problem. He didn't handle the mile and an eighth distance at the Illinois Derby very well, and wasn't much of a factor. He will have to uncork a career best, but may be just primed to do so. One of the best bred horses in the race.
Well, that is the probable entrants for Saturday. I'll be at the race firing back a Mint Julep or two, and likely wagering way too much money. I haven't found my winner yet, but will likely post sometime later this week.
Happy wagering all, and best of luck.
WAGERING NOTE: One of the key factors often used in picking a Derby winner is that 18 of the last 20 winners have posted a 104 Beyer or better prior to running in the Derby. If you look at this years field that limits it to 3 contestants. Bob Black Jack (109), Big Brown (106), and Pyro (105). Others that were close are ####ego (103), Z Fortune (102), and Recapturetheglory (102). Only 1 other horse has cracked a 100, and that is Eight Belles with a 100 Beyer.
Pyro : Even at odds of 5 to 1, many a wiseguy will be on this Asmussen trained colt who is well seasoned, and has proven that he can win at Churchill and run in any assortment of racing styles: on the lead, stalking, or even as a deep closer. Versatility is needed when racing in the Derby. Definite contender.
Tale of Ekati: His win at Aqueduct was more by the default of War Pass than anything else. However, many racing afficianados have been waiting for this Colt to blossom. After his win the Belmont Futurity last year, this Tagg trained Colt has been a bit of a disappointment. His win in the Wood may be just the ticket to unleash this extremely talented colt. 
Colonel John: The West Coast champion(?) has been impressive throughout his 1st 6 races, winning 4, and finishing 2nd twice. The big concern is that he has not been dominating, and West Coast horses have not fared well in the Derby as of late. He will likely need a career effort to hit the board. His odds at anything less than 10 to 1 seem a bit overpriced for me. The only horses he has beaten in this field are Monba and Bob Black Jack. The last, at the wire in the 1st time that colt ran over a mile, much less a mile and an eigth. Not too mention, Georgia Boy, who is not running is likely the best colt out west anyway.
Big Brown: Tough not to like this colt when you compare him to the others. Has been impressive in all 3 of his outings, and romped to a 5 length victory despite the 12 hole post and torrid fractions in the Florida Derby. Bar none, this is the most talented horse in the field, but a horse has never won the Derby with only 3 lifetime starts entering the race. A huge hurdle he will have to overcome.
Z Humor: Hard to see this colt being much of a factor for the win. Finishing 3rd, 4th, and 5th in his last 3 races, Z Humor has proven that he cannot beat a lot of the horses in this field. He will likely need a perfect trip just to hit the board. The only factor on his side is that he is bred to run the distance, thus he should not falter coming down the stretch, and may have something more in the tank than we have seen thus far.
Monba: This colt looked like he was done after a 12th place finish in the Fountain of Youth. Suprisingly he came back to beat 5 of his rivals in this race to capture the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. Those rivals include Pyro, Cool Coal Man, Visionaire, Big Truck, and Cowboy Cal. Pletcher is arguably the best trainer in the world, but Prado leaving this mount has to be a concern. Another note is that the Keeneland victory was slow and also on PolyTrack. 
Adriano: Hasn't really beaten anybody of note, and when he stepped up to stiff competition in the Fountain of Youth, he was simply never a factor. Don't read too much into the Lane's End Stakes win at Turfway, that was a less than stellar field and it was run in an extremely sluggish time. Looks like a career effort is needed just to hit the board. Since he is a stalker, that just doesn't seem very likely to happen. 
Recapturetheglory: The win in the Illinois Derby has to be respected. He took the lead and put many of these away down the stretch while romping to a 4 length victory. That was just the race this colt needed. You will likely get this guy at odds of 20 to 1 or better, and past Derby champions have used a romp in the Illinois Derby as a path to success before. A definite longshot contender that should be on or close to the lead from the start. Breeding says he can go the distance. 
Smooth Air: Has done no worse than 3rd in 7 lifetime starts, and finished a respectable 2nd to Big Brown in the Florida Derby although he was 5 lengths behind. The major question for this guy is the distance. I just can see him going a mile and a quarter, and he won't be on the lead anyway. Tough to like, and will likely be at 50 to 1 odds or more.
Cool Coal Man: Very talented colt who was the winner of the Fountain of Youth Stakes against a very strong field. His falter in the Toyota Blue Grass at Keeneland can be forgiven since it was on PolyTrack. The disturbing news is his 7th place finish the only time he has run at Churchill. His worst performance in his career. If you feel the Fountain of Youth is the true bearing of this colt, then he is a definite contender. Tough horse to gauge, but should be a serious consideration for the win and on any exotic ticket. You will also get some serious odds of 30 to 1 or better. 
Anak Nakal: Another Nick Zito entry that just hasn't shown much in 2008 with finishes of 5th, 7th, and 8th in his last 3 races. But Zito isn't giving up on this Colt just yet. We have been waiting for this colt to fire in 2008, and he has won on this track before. If you are looking for a SERIOUS long shot, this might be your ticket. Likely to go off at more than 50 to 1. Breeding says he will handle the distance. Big question is if he can get into contention coming into the stretch? Highly unlikely that he can improve by 20 lengths, but this horse can close, and does have talent. 
Eight Belles: Ahhhhh...... a filly. We have not had a filly in the Kentucky Derby since Silverbulletday back in 1999. Don't count this lady out, we all learned a lesson in last year's Belmont Stakes when Rags to Riches put the boys away at the mile and a half distance. This filly has already ran 6 career races over a mile in distance and has won her last four. She may run in the Kentucky Oaks on friday, but don't count her out from running against the boys. If she does, she should be very competitive, and could even pull a shocker and win. Larry Jones is a great trainer, and this horse could put some 
Cowboy Cal: Will need to be on the lead to have a shot, and even so, it is highly unlikely he can finish the mile and a quarter distance. His best chance would be to hang on and hit the board, but I doubt he even has the lead. Will need a great post, and a great trip to even be a factor. He will likely turn into a miler sometime this year. 
Behindatthebar: That was a big time close at Keeneland in his last, and in a pretty good time as well. This colt has basically come out of nowhere in the past month, but looks like he can be ready to unload a big one on Saturday. With Pletcher guiding and Flores on the mount, you have to give this horse some serious consideration. He'll be coming late, and if fractions up front are torrid, he should be in the mix. At 25 to 1 or better, another intriguing longshot contender. 
Visionaire: Tough to like. A closer who doesn't like the distance. Has also struggled against many of these before. Wouldn't be surprised if he gets pulled for a different race. 
Big Truck: His win in the Tampa Bay Derby may be about as good as this horse can do. And that won't even put him into the top 10 on Saturday. Hard to see this guy even hitting the board. Look elsewhere. 
Bob Black Jack: I hope this guy gets in. Primarily thought of as a sprinter, this colt ran a strong 2nd to Colonel John in the Santa Anita Derby in his 2nd effort going more than a mile. The World Record Holder at 6 furlongs, this colt could set some torrid fractions and may cause some big problems for Big Brown if he gets caught up with him. This guy could be a huge factor in the pace of this race if he gets in. Other horses such as War Emblam have 'stolen' the Derby in the past by getting to a comfortable lead with generous fractions. His effort in the Santa Anita Derby could have been just the ticket to give this guy the needed stamina to cover the mile and a quarter. If he gets a good post, he could be a serious contender. 
Denis of Cork: The likely odd man out would get some serious wiseguy heat if he gets in. With only 4 lifetime starts, and 3 wins, this horse has some tactical speed that many others don't possess. His victory in the Southwest Stakes in which he closed from 18 lengths back has to be respected. Big problem. He didn't handle the mile and an eighth distance at the Illinois Derby very well, and wasn't much of a factor. He will have to uncork a career best, but may be just primed to do so. One of the best bred horses in the race. 
