With Joe Gibbs announcing he will return and Cowboys owner Jerry Jones believing that Bill Parcells may stick around for 2007, this could turn out to be a below-average season for head coaching changes.

Yes, Arizona looks like it will fire Denny Green and Pittsburgh believes Bill Cowher may retire. But Tennessee will pick up the $5.4 million option on Jeff Fisher, and probably is leaning toward giving him total control of personnel, too.

Another guy who appears to be safe is Giants head coach Tom Coughlin. And, if the Giants make the playoffs as a wild card, Coughlin may even get a one- or two-year extension. Coughlin is currently signed through next season.

Coughlin is only in jeopardy if the Giants don’t make the playoffs. But it isn’t a certainty that he will be fired if that happens, either. Remember, the Giants aren’t a knee-jerk reaction outfit. Coughlin won the division last season and his team has been wracked by injuries, too.

Of course, Coughlin may be asked to make some offensive coaching changes because of Eli Manning’s roller-coaster development.

Do Coaches Fib?

Recently, I was discussing this very subject with Jimmy Johnson. In my business, where I want to be able to trust people, Johnson made the point that since I’m in the gossip business that coaches -- or anyone for that matter -- may take advantage of not telling me the truth, especially if the little fib suits their interests.

This thought brings us to Miami coach Nick Saban and his response to Dolphins owner Wayne Huizenga, who asked him point blank about all these Alabama rumors after last Sunday’s 24-10 loss to Jacksonville.

Saban told Huizenga that he wasn’t going anywhere, let alone Alabama, and that he hadn’t finished his job in Miami. Right now, Saban is 14-14 with the Dolphins. He made a huge mistake on his starting quarterback, choosing Daunte Culpepper over potential 2006 MVP Drew Brees. Now, he’s stuck with Joey Harrington, who is no Brees, either.

Huizenga may be one of the best owners in the NFL and he worked extremely hard to lure Saban from LSU almost two years ago. I mean, he waited and waited in Baton Rouge for more than a day while Saban made up his mind about his offer. Not too many NFL owners would have had that kind of patience to stick around and wait on some football coach.

But until Alabama announces that it has hired a head coach to replace Mike Shula, we still believe the top choice in Tuscaloosa is Saban.

Throwing the fade pass

Carolina quarterback Jake Delhomme should know better. But Delhomme heaved an ill-advised fade pass to Keyshawn Johnson at the end of the game in Philadelphia even though Eagles cornerback Lito Sheppard had deep inside position on the receiver.

There were two other prime examples this weekend when this pass should be and not be thrown. Tampa Bay rookie Bruce Gradkowksi was intercepted on the same play in his loss to the Steelers. But Eli Manning wasn’t when he was prepared to throw a fade to Plaxico Burress and didn’t. Say what?

Well, when a quarterback has a receiver like Burress, and the cornerback is over-playing to the inside anticipating the fade, the best thing to do is throw a rocket to the receiver’s inside. The receiver can then use his size and position to shield the defender from the ball. Basically, it’s like stealing. If you witnessed the Manning touchdown pass to Burress, you know what I’m writing about.

Delhomme had the same advantage with Keyshawn, who like Burress has size and strength over most cornerbacks. If Delhomme would have thrown a hard, inside fastball to Johnson, he would have had a touchdown and won the game. With experienced players like those two, it should have been an automatic throw. Football is a simple game, but both Delhomme and Gradkowski failed to read the defenders and looked miserable being intercepted.

Favre will decide early

Packers coach Mike McCarthy is confident that by the end of this brutal season in Green Bay that quarterback Brett Favre will tell him and the franchise well before the Super Bowl about his intentions to play or not play next season.

            The Cowboys are too good to be 2-2. That’s what I believe, anyway.

            But you have to tip your hat to the Philadelphia Eagles coaching staff and to quarterback Donovan McNabb. The Eagles out-schemed the Cowboys and McNabb performed marvelously under pressure and made touchdown throws to virtual unknowns that many thought were not possible.

            McNabb correctly predicted the cornerback blitz on Sunday, a Dallas defensive play that isolated rookie receiver Hank Baskett on a safety. McNabb bought himself enough time in the pocket to complete a 50-yard throw. It was the play of the game, second only to McNabb’s earlier touchdown throw to Reggie Brown, who was covered by both Dallas safeties. Pro Bowl safety Roy Williams lost the flight of the ball because he basically did a 180-degree turn, the unnecessary movement just enough to get him out of position and prevent him from either intercepting or tipping the ball away.

            Jim Johnson’s defense shot both center-guard gaps to get into Drew Bledsoe’s face all game long. Bledsoe was under siege most of the time. Still, Bledsoe made the big throw that had the Cowboys in position to tie the game at the end. Eagles safety Michael Lewis admitted he had no choice but to drag the intended receiver down for a 57-yard pass interference penalty.

            This is partly why Bill Parcells is sticking with Bledsoe. Yes, maybe Tony Romo could have escaped some of Philadelphia’s pressure. But would he have made all the throws and won the game?

            The bottom line in Dallas is that Parcells knows that if he rushes now to bench Bledsoe, the old quarterback may retire on the spot. I mean pack his bags and retire and with his wife and kids. He doesn’t need the money.

Bledsoe is a good man and he deserves every opportunity. If he can’t get the job done, he’ll realize it when Parcells does. The fans in Dallas, starting with Terrell Owens, believe Bledsoe has had bad games in the two Dallas defeats.

          We are assuming Bledsoe will beat the Texans on Sunday. His deciding game will be Monday night at home against the Giants. He and the Cowboys must beat the Giants.

Protecting Rex

            Yes, the Bears sure do look unbeatable. And there are some interesting statistics to support their 5-0 start.

First, quarterback Rex Grossman has been sacked the fewest times, or 2.6 percent of the time he drops back to throw. With the protection, Grossman has delivered. The Bears are converting 48 percent of their third-and-long plays or second-best in the NFL thus far. They trail only Peyton Manning and the Colts. Last season, despite winning 11 games, they were next-to-last in the league on third-and-long. Only the 49ers were worse.

Speaking of third-down conversions, the Carolina Panthers are 11 of 48 on the season after going 0-for-11 against mighty Cleveland on Sunday. Only – guess who? – the Raiders are worse.

Moss on the move?

            Ok, the Raiders have had internal discussions about trading unhappy receiver Randy Moss, who is simply frustrated with offensive coordinator Tom Walsh’s offense. But it doesn’t look like Moss will be traded because the Raiders need to get more than simply a first-round draft pick as compensation.

            But you have to wonder if the Seahawks and Falcons wouldn’t rather have Moss than Deion Branch and Ashley Lelie, respectively. The one team that Moss would help immediately is the Pittsburgh Steelers. He would open up that offense and definitely help Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben is currently on his worse streak as a pro, losing three straight while producing zero touchdown passes with seven interceptions.

            Former Vikings coach Mike Tice has pointed out those same possibilities to the people in Jacksonville. Moss does force teams to account for him everywhere, whether he’s giving effort or not. But teams like the Steelers don’t make trades like that. Neither do the Chicago Bears.

Bargain shoppers

Without a salary-cap hit, the Broncos simply went with the cheaper punter in Paul Ernster, whose salary is $302,590. Todd Sauerbrun’s salary for this season is $1.39 million or $82,059 every week over the course of a 17-week season. Even if Sauerbrun needed steroids or some other illegal supplement to help heal some injuries, how many teams want to risk a punter with two strikes against him?

Jets groaning

When you lose 41-0, like the Jets did on Sunday, there’s going to be a lot of moaning and groaning. Well, Laveranues Coles popped off Sunday about his lack of playing time and the face he only had three receptions for 19 yards. He entered the game against Jacksonville tied for the NFL receptions lead with 30. But how can you have any sympathy for Coles, who has had 50 passes thrown his way in five games? That’s the third-highest amount in the NFL behind only Torry Holt and Marvin Harrison.

Birthday boy

 Happy Birthday to Brett Favre, who turns 37 today. But probably feels like 47, what with the pinched neck nerve and those four losses. Plus, Coach Mike McCarthy isn’t giving his players the week off like Mike Holmgren did last week in Seattle.

One of the worst teams I saw this summer was the New Orleans Saints. Personnel people around the league concurred with me.

Now, that the Saints are 3-0 and heading toward a showdown game with the Carolina Panthers this Sunday, there are two theories: 1.) preseason games definitely don't reveal a team's true identity or 2.) new head coach Sean Payton and his defensive coordinator Gary Gibbs have this team playing well above their heads.

Granted, the Saints played with enormous emotion Monday night in the franchise's return to the Superdome, but they also stuffed the potent Atlanta rushing game and Drew Brees directed a wide-open offense.

Payton has done a masterful job with Reggie Bush, who may not have huge numbers but truly scares defensive coordinators. The Falcons made an effort to account for Bush and in the process it opened up other areas on the field for Deuce McAlister and rookie receiver Marques Colston. In August, the Saints' offensive line looked like it had major holes, but that hasn't been the case with Payton's aggressive play-calling.

Give Payton another huge pat on the back for realizing early in training camp that Colston, a mere seventh-rounder from Hofstra, might be a big-time receiver. Payton's confidence in Colston (15 catches for 204 yards) allowed the Saints to trade away Donte Stallworth to the Eagles.

Anybody notice that Stallworth is injured again?

Some truth to Shockey

It had been written for a week or more that Seattle head coach Mike Holmgren was seriously considering a lot of four-wide receiver formations prior to the New York game because he had to get newcomer Deion Branch on the field. Holmgren even admitted to possibly using the formation at least 10 times a game.

Well, the New York Giants apparently can't read.

They looked totally unprepared to deal with the four-wide look on Sunday as Holmgren used it extensively, helping Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck to a career day. Hasselbeck threw four of his five touchdown passes in the first half as Seattle built a 35-3 lead. In most cases, receivers were wide open. There wasn't a Giant within 10 yards of tight end Will Heller when he caught his fourth career touchdown.

The formation prevented the Giants' pass rushers from getting to Hasselbeck because with a receiver always open, Hasselbeck was getting rid of the ball before anyone got near him. It was a frustrating day for players like Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora.

Ponder these numbers

- Everything you hear out of Detroit is that the Lions finally have the right head coach in Rod Marinelli. And still the Lions are off to a 0-3 start and GM Matt Millen is now 21-62.

- Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger doesn't have a quarterback rating over 31.0 in his last three starts, which includes the Super Bowl. The "great" Hines Ward has nine catches for 99 yards. Where are the big plays?

- The Raiders are in their must-win mode this week. But just remember they lost to the Browns last season at home on three Phil Dawson field goals, 9-7.

- Minnesota's offense has gone 10 quarters now without a touchdown.

Good move

Packers head coach Mike McCarthy opted for a lot more shotgun formations last Sunday in order to give Brett Favre time to see downfield. With young offensive linemen learning a new zone-blocking system, it made a lot of sense and Favre delivered with three touchdown (402 in his career) passes. McCarthy figures to do more of the same because Green Bay will be in a lot of high-scoring games this season.

Wait a week on Leinart

Arizona coach Denny Green is leaning towards starting rookie Matt Leinart over Kurt Warner this Sunday in Atlanta. But wouldn't it be better, considering the Georgia Dome might be pretty hostile this weekend, to wait a week and allow Leinart to get his first start at home against the Kansas City Chiefs?

Of the rookie quarterbacks, Leinart was always considered the one most ready to play this season. Mentally, he knows the playbook. He possesses big-game poise, too. But there's nothing wrong in waiting because Green really doesn't want him to fail and there's really no sense in turning back to Warner once the coach makes the switch.