Sean Farnham on FOX Sports Radio asked me an interesting question on Monday. Was the NFL pulling out of its preseason game in China because the league realizes that it can’t make the strides in Asia and Europe like the NBA has? That football is strictly an American game?
Well, the NFL isn’t thinking like that. The NFL simply wants to concentrate on its regular-season game in London this season where the Miami Dolphins will host the New York Giants. They will play in Beijing in 2009, the year after the Olympics. I do believe that if the London game is a financial success that there’s a better chance of London getting a franchise over Los Angeles.
The reason is pretty simple: high-brow fans with plenty of money, plus a modern stadium. The football fans in Boston and Philadelphia and Houston can tell you, even when being gouged, that the football experience is pretty special in a modern stadium. London has better soccer stadiums than Los Angeles does, plus any NFL fan who lives in California knows that politicians in the Golden State are never going to ante up for a $800 million stadium in Los Angeles or anywhere else for that matter.
When offensive linemen are collecting $10 million signing bonuses, you know the league needs to expand to locations where the fans will pay any price to sit and watch. The NFL Europe experience has whetted the Europeans’ appetite for the real thing, a real NFL game, and that’s the logic behind my beliefs.
The next best place to put a NFL franchise is Las Vegas, but the gambling mecca won’t get one because the league doesn’t want to admit that their fans actually bet on a game’s outcome. How silly. Off-the-record, most owners know that Las Vegas would be a financial gold mine.
If the game in London is a financial success, and fans also watch the game on satellite television throughout Great Britain and other European countries, you know the league will seriously consider another such event and the possibility of a European based London franchise.
London may be five years down the road. Conversely, Los Angeles has gone 12 seasons now without a single franchise and the NFL continues to be a financial giant and a television ratings’ success.
To this day, potential Los Angeles owner Casey Wasserman realizes that he should have bought the Dodgers instead of Frank McCourt. Had Wasserman bought the Dodgers, he could have developed a NFL stadium there or even relocated the baseball team in a new stadium near the Staples Center. With that opportunity lost, Los Angeles is down to the Coliseum option, one that the NFL can easily turn its back on.
Browns and Quinn
No NFL coach is on a bigger hot seat than Romeo Crennel in Cleveland. If the Browns get off to a horrendous start this upcoming season, Crennel could be gone by November. I don’t believe GM Phil Savage cares, either, because he didn’t really hire Crennel -- owner Randy Lerner did -- and because he wants to rebuild this franchise.
And there is growing speculation that Savage, especially if LSU’s JaMarcus Russell has already been selected, could decide to draft Notre Dame’s Brady Quinn with the third overall choice. The Browns, like the Raiders, need a franchise quarterback.
Cleveland fans have been hoping that Savage would draft Heisman winner Troy Smith of Ohio State in the second or third round. Smith, a strong-armed quarterback, could go anywhere from the second to the fourth round.
The Browns don’t really want to settle on Smith in the latter rounds because they know he will take attention away from their first pick. And they definitely wouldn’t draft both Quinn and Smith.
Turner’s value
Chargers running back Michael Turner visited Tennessee this week and his agent, Bus Cook, is trying to drum up interest in his client. The Chargers placed a first and third-round tag on the restricted running back, believing he’s worth the price and the high salary because he’s a perfect insurance should an injury befall LaDainian Tomlinson this season.
Turner, a former fifth-round draft pick, is viewed by some as a much better starter at his position than quarterback Matt Schaub, who moved from Atlanta to Houston for two second-round draft picks, besides the Texans and Falcons swapping spots in the first round. Chargers GM A.J. Smith believes Turner is worth a first-round pick and so do I.
Smith’s dilemma is does he trade him for less this year before he loses him for good in 2008 when Turner will be an unrestricted free-agent? There is no way that San Diego can pay both Tomlinson and Turner. New England has two late first-round picks, and there isn’t a running back available there that is as good as Turner. Plus, the Pats have some concerns over Laurence Maroney’s shoulder.
But Smith may not want to trade with the Patriots and then watch Turner run through the Chargers in a potential playoff game next season. The end result is that Smith may have to take less than first-round compensation for Turner in order to move him to a NFC team.
High stakes in Washington
By acquiring veteran linebacker London Fletcher in free agency, the Washington Redskins don’t seem to be a club that desperate for Bears linebacker Lance Briggs. And they may balk at paying a higher price than swapping first-round picks with Chicago, giving up their sixth pick while sliding down to 31st in the round.
Heck, there’s a chance that Butkus Award winner Paul Posluszny of Penn State might still be on the board, considering many teams have him rated at the top of the second round.
Detroit GM Matt Millen really doesn’t want Joe Gibbs to trade that sixth-round pick to Chicago. If the Raiders draft Russell, Millen wouldn’t mind swapping his choice for Washington’s sixth and another draft pick for the rights to Georgia Tech receiver Calvin Johnson.
Owner Daniel Snyder attended Johnson’s workout and the word is that Gibbs wouldn’t mind acquiring him, believing he would give young quarterback Jason Campbell a truly great target.
When is the right time to draft a quarterback in the first round?
The correct answer is when you have a first-year head coach. For example, the Raiders should have taken a quarterback, say Matt Leinart, last year because it was Art Shell’s first season. They didn’t and Shell had no excuse to fall back on before being fired. And it’s definitely why they will take a quarterback this year, having hired Lane Kiffin, an offensive head coach. The two men can grow together. Most believe that Kiffin will tell owner Al Davis that of the draft’s top two quarterbacks, he prefers JaMarcus Russell to Brady Quinn.
This being said, what do the Cleveland Browns and Tampa Bay Bucs do?
I say that both teams pass on Quinn because a rookie quarterback can’t help Romeo Crennel and Jon Gruden save their jobs next season. Both coaches reportedly are on the spot; they have to win to remain employed. For the Browns, GM Phil Savage’s career is probably tied to next season’s won-lost record, too.
Nobody knows for sure, but I say that if Oakland takes LSU’s Russell and Detroit sticks with Wisconsin offensive tackle Joe Thomas with the second overall choice, then Cleveland will take Oklahoma running back Adrian Peterson and Gruden will select the top player on his draft board, Georgia Tech receiver Calvin Johnson, who ran a 4.35 40-yard dash Sunday.
Saturday night, Gruden had his chance to pick Quinn’s brain and we know he did a ####-up job. And, yes, the Bucs need a quarterback. They are kidding themselves if they believe that Chris Simms or possibly acquiring someone like Jake Plummer or Jeff Garcia is going to have immediate positive results.
Internally, the Bucs don’t buy that Quinn is sliding down the draft board. But the bottom line in Tampa is that Gruden will make this draft call, and he probably will pass on taking a quarterback.
$10 million head coach
If I had to pick one, I’d say that New England’s Bill Belichick could become the NFL’s first $10 million head coach whenever he was free to leave the Patriots. Belichick is worth it as a coach, slash personnel director. With more and more marginal players earning $4-5 million a season because the salary cap is $109 million, it makes sense for an owner to pay the big number to a head coach who can properly manage that huge player-salary budget.
In fact, several general managers here said that the head coach’s salary should be factored into the salary cap.
“I know my coach can’t understand why so many second-team players, guys who don’t always contribute, are earning such bigger paychecks than any of his coaches,” one AFC general manager said. “A great coach is worth every penny to a franchise because he’s the one who develops the rookies into starters.”
Owners have been complaining about how much money the players are collecting, but what are really impacting their overall profit margin are the costs for the coaching staffs and personnel departments. Many teams have coaching/personnel staff budgets well beyond $10 million a season. The Redskins hit that magic number with only three of their coaches: Joe Gibbs, Al Saunders and Gregg Williams.
Right now, some teams may only spend $95 million of the $109 million cap. You can bet that some owners would love to place their head coach’s salary into that pie and save themselves a lot of money.
Consider the Chicago Bears. Deep down they know that head coach Lovie Smith is more valuable to the team than probably any player outside of Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs. They have finally reached the $4 million level on a new deal for Smith, the game’s lowest-paid head coach at $1.45 million for 2007. They probably would place Smith with the game’s top dozen earners if they could count the salary toward the salary cap.
More than Hutch
It must be comical to head coach Mike Holmgren and his coaching staff that the Seahawks are preparing to pay Chargers guard Kris Dielman, an unrestricted free agent, more than the $6.5 million that Steve Hutchinson received last year to leave Seattle for Minnesota. Holmgren was so upset that his front office failed to place the franchise tag on Hutchinson a year ago, and ultimately losing him on a poison pill contract that Minnesota prepared for him, declaring that he had to be the team’s highest-paid offensive lineman. Seattle couldn’t match because left tackle Walter Jones was their highest-paid lineman.
But last season, with three different guards trying to fill the Hutchinson void, Seattle’s running game faltered and Jones had a subpar season. This is where Dielman, who may not be as good as Hutchinson on the field and in the locker room, fits into Seattle’s future.
Speaking of free-agency, Dielman, Bengals guard Eric Steinbach and Arizona tackle Leonard Davis could hit a gold-mine of riches when free agency signings begin next Friday, March 2. Davis reportedly may have a $12 signing bonus offer from some unnamed team. The Cleveland Browns may be competing with Seattle for Dielman and Steinbach.
Cozy relationship
When Ernie Accorsi was the general manager of the New York Giants, he had a very good working relationship with agent Drew Rosenhaus. After Saturday’s revelation by new GM Jerry Reese, whose promotion was supported by Accorsi, that he would be interested in trading for Bills running back Willis McGahee, the Rosenhaus connection was raised by several competing teams. McGahee, who wants a new contract from the Bills, is represented by Rosenhaus.
Reese said that he was unwilling to trade a first-day draft choice (rounds one through three) for McGahee, but that he would be willing to part with lower picks and possibly some players. MaGahee, who doesn’t like to work out in Buffalo in the off-season, has mentioned a holdout from training camp if he doesn’t receive a new deal. The Bills have been saying it would take a first-round pick to acquire McGahee.
Ugly brother
David Irons, the Auburn cornerback, attempted to be a standup comic today in the media room. His brother, Kenny, was Auburn’s stud running back this past season and the two brothers have a great chance at become the first such family tandem to be selected in the first round of a NFL draft. Their father, two uncles and two cousins have played in the NFL.
But in high school, Kenny was David’s blocking back.
“We called it ugly sweep right and ugly sweep left,” David said of his brother, referring to Kenny’s face. “I kept telling him to take his visor off so the defenders could see his face. I mean once he did, they got out of his way and I ran down the sidelines for an easy touchdown.”
David wasn’t finished. “You should have seen him yesterday in his chocolate suit or whatever he was wearing,” he said. “My brother looked like a big, fat cup of coffee.”
Moss available
The Raiders don’t know what to do with receiver Randy Moss, whose salary this season is slightly more than $9 million. New coach Lane Kiffin says that both Moss and Jerry Porter, who spent most of last season in Art Shell’s doghouse, will be in his starting lineup. Porter, who is in the last year of his contract, needs the Raiders while Moss has different ideas. The feeling is he wants the opportunity to play for a playoff team and not be a part of Oakland’s rebuilding.
What is unknown is what does Al Davis want for Moss? Would he settle for a third or fourth-round draft choice? If he would, the New England Patriots might be interested in Moss. The Pats need a veteran receiver and Belichick knows he can handle Moss. There’s been a lot of talk about the Packers for Moss, but it doesn’t look like a move that Green Bay GM Ted Thompson would be interested in making, no matter how much Brett Favre asks.
Eagles passing on Garcia
The Eagles keep telling their fans that they want last season’s surprise, Jeff Garcia, to return and be Donovan McNabb’s backup. But the team hasn’t offered Garcia a contract and the 37-year-old quarterback has been rejected by most teams. The Chicago Bears, who wasted $6 million on Brian Griese last season, aren’t interested in Garcia to challenge Rex Grossman. The Panthers don’t want him and neither do the Dolphins. Garcia may have a shot with the Bucs, but they are in no hurry to sign him.
John Czarnecki, a former sportswriter with over 20 years experience covering the NFL, has been the editorial consultant for the Emmy Award-winning FOX NFL Sunday since its 1994 inception. Prior, he provided exclusive information to CBS Sports' The NFL Today program from 1991 to 1993, holding a similar position.
Prior to joining CBS Sports, Czarnecki was a pro football writer for The National Sports Daily (1989-91), The Dallas Morning News (1989), and The Los Angeles Herald-Examin er. An archive of work can be found here.