The conference semis are winding down, and there ain't much to talk about. Especially since I'm trying to get caught up in the games (I've watched only the endings of games 5-6 of Detroit-Chicago and game 5 of Phoenix-San Antonio, and missed game 5 of Cleveland-New Jersey.) You know how I do though, I'll stir something up anyway.

So Detroit finally closed out Chicago in six. The Pistons have difficulty dealing with success, as we saw in game 4 and game 5 (so I'm told). The other vets have been getting more press, but how 'bout my guy Tayshaun Prince in game 5? I've watched Tay since his college days, and its good to see him finally assert himself like he did at the end of game 5, abusing Luol Deng on the block repeatedly with that lefty hook. Did you see him get in Rasheed's grill after the T? That's some leadership for a guy with a rep as being soft-spoken. Good for him. Now, let's see more of the same in the next round against King James.

As for da Bulls, their reliance on jumpers finally did them in down the stretch of game 6. You've got to respect these guys, but they get the broken record treatment: GET SOMEBODY WHO CAN SCORE IN THE  PAINT! A more experienced hand on the perimeter might not hurt either; the Bulls had 5 turnovers in the fourth quarter, including some devastating ones down the stretch when the Detroit offense was stalling out. Props must be given out again to Deng though. He was up to the challenge the entire series, playing aggressively on the glass, finishing with strength, and hitting his midrange jumpers. I still don't see him as a franchise player, but he can be a key cog on a championship team.

The same cannot be said with certainty about the Bull guards, however. Granted, Gordon and Hinrich drew an extremely tough matchup, going against in Billups and Hamilton the toughest and most playoff-tested backcourt in the L. But 39% isn't going to get it done, regardless of who you're playing against. Chalk it up to a learning experience, but it will be interesting to see how these young guys respond in the future to this grade A ####-whupping.

This is really a double-shot of Guruisms. First, hitting clean-up for my second round slate:

Suns-Spurs:  Before the series, I picked the Spurs in five. Although on paper, the Phoenix has matchup advantages with Shawn Marion and Steve Nash over Tony Parker, I couldn't shake the memory of what happened in the regular season and in 2005. The Spurs just have the perfect gameplan to counter what Phoenix does. The Spurs have the best transition defense in the league, and limit their turnovers, so Phoenix has a hard time getting out on the break against them. The Spurs are also supremely patient and disciplined on offense, meaning they don't rush shots, and they dictate tempo probably as well as anyone else in the league.

On top of all that, in 2005 they used Bruce Bowen on the Matrix, taking away all of his easy baskets and offensive boards, and basically reduced Phoenix's attack to Amare Stoudemire going one-on-one against one of the toughest half-court defenses in the NBA. The only difference I saw between this year and 2005 was that the Spurs are not quite as tough on the inside as they were two years ago. (Mohammed was huge on the glass in those playoffs, and Rasho, for all his flaws, was a 7-footer guy opposing teams had to watch out for in the lane. Nowadays, Oberto and Elson give the Spurs nothing in terms of inside presence. That's why the Spurs play more small-ball now than ever before.)

And then there was game 4. Wow. The Suns contradicted all conventional thinking, not to mention their own prior history, by pulling out this game. Check it out:

The Suns play no defense: The boys in orange pulled out some huge stops at the end of this game. Going from single coverage to aggressively trapping Duncan, which Phoenix didn't start doing until crunch time, resulted in turnovers, and completely disrupted the Spur offense. This was brilliant coaching by D'Antoni & Co., and why it so completely baffled the veteran Spurs is beyond me. San Antonio's perimeter guys looked more Lost than the tv show, dribbling out the clock and hoisting rushed shot after shot. I definitely took me back to the days when the Spurs were considered too soft to beat the Lakers. That said, don't think the Suns have stumbled on some defensive kryptonite to use against SA. I don't think the same tactic will be nearly as effective next time around.

The Suns don't rebound: Down the stretch, they more than held their own on the glass, exploiting the biggest weakness in the Spurs' game. The Spurs don't need to dominate the glass to win this series, but in the past their ability to do so helped them control tempo and keep Phoenix's offense under wraps. They cannot get dominated like they did last night if they want to win the series. Even if they pull it out against Phoenix (which I think they will, even before we find out that Amare and Diaw are suspended), the Spurs' weakness on the glass will be their eventual downfall. (hint...hint...hint)

All in all a great game, Phoenix really showed me something last night. Now do it again two more times. Then I'll be really impressed.

By the way, why isn't Popovic using Bowen against Marion like he did in '05??? Was it working too well? TP has shown that he can cover Steve Nash, so I have a hard time understanding this move. Then again, I have a hard time understanding many of Pop's "strategic" moves. Take, for instance, the 2001 series against Lakers, where leaving Fisher open (allowing him to average over 20ppg in a sweep) was the move du jour. Or the 2006 series against the Kings, where the counter to Ron Artest's bullying was taking Ginobili completely out of the offense until midway through the series (after the Kings built up a lead, and might have won had Bonzi and Artest not gotten hurt).  Or how 'bout this series, where you let Phoenix get away with Steve Nash on Mike Finley for stretches, even though Finley's a former all-star who likes to post up. Maybe someday I'll learn enough about the game to understand...

Under the Radar Stuff

One of the reasons I started writing this thing is that I think the people writing about the NBA in the major outlets (all two of them) miss a lot of important things. Here are two stories I think are so under the radar, the military would classify them as stealth technology.

Fatigue and the Warriors:

This has been mentioned, but I don't think people appreciate how the fact that JRich, Stephen Jack, Matt Barnes, and especially Boom Dizzle are all running on E is torpedoing the Warriors' postseason efforts. Fatigue makes b!@#$ of us all. This shows up worst on defense, where Golden State is just not rotating or getting back nearly as well as they did against Dallas. In game 4, it started showing up on offense as well, with increased settling for jumpers, most of which were being front-rimmed. Throw in a mellower-than-usual home crowd (c'mon bay area, you gotta represent! I don't care how much the tickets are!), and you have the story of game 4. Unfortunately, I don't see a magic cure for game 5 tonight in the works. The core guys of this gutty Golden State team will have to find their second wind, because I don't see their young bench guys (Ellis, Pietrus, Biedrins) working any miracles on the road. That said, Utah is still an inexperienced playoff team, and Warrior fans can still hope that they get too comfortable with their 3-1 lead. But don't bet on it.

Flopping - it's Fann-tastic!

In the wake of Suns-Spurs, we're hearing lots of complaints about flopping in the playoffs. I'm with Bill Walton on this one (one of the few times you'll hear me say that),  and think that flopping is an abuse of the rules. But it's interesting to think what the cause of this new trend is, because while flopping isn't new (is it, Reggie Miller fans?), it has greatly picked up in the last couple of seasons. There are many factors, but the biggest one seems to be that refs are much more willing to blow the whistle at any contact that occurs on a play, not just contact that gives a player an advantage (historically, what a "foul" is).

Who do we have to blame for this development? THE "FANS." Let me be more specific: the highly vocal "fans" of the game, who thought the physical basketball of the '90's sucked, and praise the Phoenix Suns as the messiahs of "good" basketball. These "fans," and their mouthpieces in the media, are arrogant pricks who think college basketball is better than the NBA, and at their core dislike the NBA for a littany of reasons, usually related to being too "playground," and worse, too "black." If you can't tell, I like these people.

Sadly, these people apparently have a lot of pull up in the League office. Why else would the Commish, generally a smart guy, be so hell bent on eliminating contact in the sport? The league has been pressuring refs to crack down on contact, both on the perimeter and around the basket, and this is naturally causing refs to be more trigger-happy. Developments like the circle under the basket (which I'm not necessarily against), which seemingly necessitates a call every time somebody falls down, only increase this pressure. As a ref, doesn't it make sense at this point to make a call every time somebody gets bump, since it's in line with league policy? At this point, doesn't it make sense for a player to exaggerate contact every chance you get, because the odds are in favor of the call going your way?

The only cure for this problem that I see is for refs to refocus on what constitutes a foul, which comes back to how hard the contact has to be for there to be an advantage. In cases where the contact isn't clearly enough to disrupt the play, the refs should #### their whistles and let the play continue. More non-calls like this will cause players and coaches to realize that its in their interest to keep playing after enough turnovers/easy scores are caused by flop-attempts (boy I'd like to see that statistic - Ginobili could average a double-double!).

So basketball "fans" around the country, this column's for you. Give yourselves a pat on the back every time you see a 6'10'' guy falling into the basket support when hit by a 6'1'' guy. You earned it.

 

 

 

 

Now playing: my wrapup of prediction for the Eastern conference bracket.

I wanted to first respond to the ravenous Bulls fans, who like to think that their manhandling the defending champs will translate into guaranteed victory: 2007 Heat =/= 2006 Heat. The 2006 Heat had a healthy DWade, and Antoine Walker was finally rolling as the third scorer/playmaker on the team. On the real though, Chicago should have beaten Miami last year. Deng didn't show up for that series and was completely outplayed by Walker, which made his breakout peformance this year all the more shocking.

I'm kinda surprised all those Bulls fans didn't bring up what Detroit should really be worried about: Nocioni's outside shooting. Noce still doesn't quite look like himself after coming back from his injuries, and we'll find out just how well he's doing come Saturday. But if he's hot, he either pulls one of Detroit's bigs away from the basket, opening up the paint for the other guys, or forces the Pistons to go small. I'm not saying he can win the series, but it would make things more interesting. I still say Pistons in six.

Cavs-Nets

Contrary to popular belief, I think this'll be a good series. On paper, the Cavs have way more talent than the Nets, who play Vince, RJ, Kidd, and Jay-Z's Roc-A-Fella crew. But between the experience of those Jersey guys and the screwiness of the Cavs roster, this will be a close series. I pick the Cavs in seven.

The trouble with the Cavs roster is that it's like they assembled two different teams, and Ferry & Co. can't decide which way to go. On one side, you have your halfcourt guys - Ziggy Ilgauskas, Drew Gooden, Eric Snow, and Donyell Marshall. On the other you have your uptempo crew - Larry Hughes, Sideshow Bob Varejao, and Pavlovic. Unfortunately, the halfcourt guys can't play fast and the uptempo guys can't really play slow. In between, you have King James, who is good enough to play both styles, but in an uptempo scheme would be the scariest thing the league's seen this side of Dr. J. Who else can you say with 100% certainty that some crazy #@% is going down whenever they get the ball in the open court?

(Here's where I'm going to talk about why LeBron is the MVP of the NBA. This deserves its own column, but I don't have the time or interest to do that right now. So I'll sum it up: look at the team he's working with. If you took out LeBron and put in a decent player, like say a Luke Walton, the guys I mentioned above would struggle to win 30 games. You're looking at Memphis east, folks. Take Nash from the Suns, replace him with a Ray Felton. You still have Barbosa, Stoudemire, Marion, Diaw, Bell and Kurt Thomas. By my count, that's two unstoppable offensive players, another top-25 player in the league, a 6'-9'' playmaking forward, a defensive specialist who can stroke the long ball, and a solid backup big man. Are you telling me that team wouldn't win 40-45 games? As for Dirk? Short answer, see the Mavs-Warriors playoff series. Kobe's the only other guy who has a legit case against Lebron. I pick LeBron because:

a) Kobe's got more help. Lamar Odom is waaaay better than any other player the Cavs have, and if you take him from the Lakers and Larry Hughes from the Cavs, the remaining guys are close, with only a slight edge in the Cavs favor.

and

b) The Lakes may have had more injuries, but they won about ten less games than the Cavs, so I call that a wash.)

All that said, the Cavs have bigs and the Nets really don't, unless you count too-young Josh Boone, too-old Cliff Robinson, and Freeway, who just isn't tall enough. Mikki Moore has a great story, and is actually pretty solid, but the Cavs are one of the best rebounding teams in the league and should feast on the boards at both ends. Defensively, the Nets are the better team though, and JKidd and Vince should be able to get into the paint and cause problems for Cleveland. (On that point, can someone tell my why coach Mike Brown has tried to make the Cavs a defensive, walk-it-up team, when NONE of his starters plays any defense and half of his guys can't score in the halfcourt? Anybody?) As tough defensively as the Nets can be, I don't see them being able to contain LeBron in a Pistons-like fashion.

Also, watch for at least one game turning on the edge in experience and poise held by the Nets. It may come in the form of missed FTs by LeBron, it may come in a key rebound or defensive play made by Jason Kidd, but know that it's coming. The problem is, I don't see there being enough tight games, especially in Cleveland, for the Nets to pull out the series.

This brings us to a Pistons-Cavs, this time in the conference finals. If you've been following the blog, then you know where this is heading. It's just a question of how many games.

Wow. Three posts in and I've already caused a mini-firestorm up in here. Or I hit a raw nerve with Bulls and Suns fans. Either way, very cool stuff.

Raps-Nets

Another series I haven't been able to follow closely. I blame the following factors, in no particular order: a) the Pacific time zone b) the schedule programmers for the playoffs, for putting all the games on NBATV and having them at the same time as other, better series' games. Seriously, didn't they do this to the Nets in the first year last year too? Is it so wrong to want to see the best PG of this generation without missing other games?

Anyway, I thought the Nets would come out on top in this series, mainly because the Raps don't play a lick of defense and aren't a good enough rebounding team to capitalize on the Nets' donut roster (nothing in the middle). I did catch game 4. in time to see the Nets blow Toronto out of the water. Kidd and Carter were getting in the lane pretty much at will, and Chris Bosh was settling for too many jumpers. I really like Bosh's game, and he already shows more leadership than the guy he's most often compared to, KG. But in this series, and in general, he needs to get inside and mix things up more. He's got a great hook, shows flashes of great post up moves on the regular, and it would be a shame for him to fall in the tradition of big guys who jump-shot themselves straight into a "soft" label a la CWebb.

With all that said, I think Toronto's going to win tonight. New Jersey's playing well, but which Vince Carter is going to show up? The deer-in-the-headlights version of games 1 and 2? Or the dominator that owned his former team in the Meadowlands? I'm betting probably somewhere in between, leaning towards the former. I've always admired his dunks (he's the best I've ever seen), but Vince seems to lack the killer instinct of his elite wing peers (namely Kobe, TMac, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen). Thats why I thought the deal bringing him to Jersey would work so well, because JKidd's leadership could overshadow Vince's shortcomings and let him just play loose. 

But things haven't really taken off for the Nets like I thought they would. Before the season, I thought this was the year we'd see New Jersey bounce back to its title-contending ways in the East, even picking them to represent in the finals. Instead, we got an ugly, out of sync mess. And that was before KRS(tic)-One was out for the season. Granted, RJ was dealing with some injury issues, but that's no excuse for them to open the season 11-18. We'll see if they can pull it together in the playoffs, but I'm not optimistic.

The Nets will pull it together enough to win this series though, and I see them clinching it in game 6. That means Cleveland-New Jersey in the second round, which is just a bad matchup for the Nets. More on that next time.

And I haven't forgotten about my MVP manifesto. Suns fans, who didn't seem to enjoy my "pretty-boy" crack yesterday, are going to love it.

Just when I thought I was talking to myself here, I get my first reader comment. (sniffs) Ahh, the sweet smell of success. Moving on,

Cavs-Wizards

I admit, I've only watched game 1 of this series. Talk about blah. The Cavs, hardly one of the NBA's elite teams, cruised through that game in regular season mode, and just made enough plays in the fourth quarter to win. From what I've heard, it's been this way all series. Since the games themselves have been unremarkable, time to bring out another axe to grind...

The Cavs-Wiz series is the posterchild for why the NBA season is too long. By extending the playoff to a 4 best-of-seven series format, the NBA has effectively made the cliche'd "second season" a reality. Throw in the nation team off-season commitment, and the league is physically demanding more from players, especially the stars, than ever before. What are the results of this?

-INJURIES. Fatigue makes ^#$^$#^es of us all. Based on my limited athletic experience, and from what I've seen and heard, fatigue is one of the biggest causes of injuries in sports. When you play tired, you start taking short cuts, get out of position more, and this leads you to getting hurt. To varying degrees, I would bet the injuries to Dwyane Wade, Lamar Odom, and yes, Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler, were all caused by a combination of fatigue and compensation for other injuries.

-Regular season apathy. The last ten games of the season are throwaways for all teams not fighting to get into the playoffs. Why? Partly because the extra wear and tear on a good team's regulars is a greater risk than any marginal improvement in playoff position. Back in the day, when the playoffs rarely spanned more than 20 games for the finalists, teams didn't have to worry as much about resting their regulars because the playoffs were just icing on top of the long regular season. Also, from the players' standpoint, what's the best way to avoid getting too tired to make it through the playoffs? Hint: ask Tim Duncan (see:his first few months of the season), Shaq (see: roughly the last dozen years of his career, minus his first two championship seasons), and the Detroit Pistons (two of the last three regular seasons for the whole rotation, except maybe for Tayshaun Prince; I can never tell the difference between when he's not playing hard and when he's just in passive mode).

Why should the NBA care? After all, the reason they'll never shorten the season, since 10 extra games of even diminished revenue (from meaningless end-of-season games) is better than nothing. 

The best reason is because the fans lose out in the current system. Last year's Cavs-Wiz series was great, because we got to see LeBron and Gilbert Arenas go head to head for six gut-wrenching games. Between the DVR and my sneaking out of work early, I didn't miss a game of the series. This year, we're stuck with LeBron against...Deshaun Stevenson. Not quite "must-see-TV." And if the Guru's not feeling it, what is the casual fan thinking? Is there a record for lamest crowd in a playoff game? I have to hand it to the fans in Cleveland, even with with the Washington Generals as their opponents, they represented better than Laker and Heat fans have in past years. They at least knew when the game was starting.

But I digress. Back to my point, if fans get a steady diet of sabotaged playoff series' and half-hearted regular season games, then they start to lose faith in the product. This is the exact kind of intangible loss in revenue that the league can conveniently ignore unfortunately.

I could go on, but I was supposed to talk about Wiz-Cavs. Well, even though the Cavs aren't very good, they've gotten to 3-0. I'll go out on a limb and say they end it tonight with the clean sweep.

Oh yeah, I mentioned MVP also. That's LeBron James. Not particularly close even. I'll have to pick up there next time.

I've done it now. I'm shocking the world like the Warriors with a career-high second post this year! I'm sure for you guys, this is like Christmas in April. It is for me at least.

So I got the Detroit series almost right. Good for them, they actually maintained focus for one whole playoff series. This is a major development for Dee-troit, after all, since this the team that thought it could beat the Spurs in the finals after spotting them two games. That they almost pulled it off (and really would have, had Rasheed not forgotten to guard Bob Horry for the fourth quarter and OT of game 5; that game, along with his Charles Smith impersonation against the Lakers in 2000, perfectly captures why 'Sheed has to be one of the most frustrating star players in NBA history) just shows how unique and great this team is. But we'll get to why I think they're winning the whole shooting match later in this series of posts. If I stick around until the finals, that is.

Post-mortem Bulls-Heat Diagnosis

Wow. I really didn't see this coming. In my lost column of last week, I gave the Heat almost an even chance to win this series. I think Kahn, or whoever on Fox it was who wrote this last week, nailed it right on the head: the laziness of one of the game's great underachievers of all-time is finally catching up to him.  Simply put, Shaq has never come close to his potential as a defender or rebounder (on the defensive end), which both come down to focus and effort. While the overratedness of Shaq is a whole 'nother column waiting to happen, I'll say this now: the Diesel D is such a liability, he has to be rolling offensively to justify him being out on the floor. Otherwise, the team is better with 'Zo in the middle.

After witnessing the demise of Shaq to mortal status in games 1 and 2, you knew Miami was going down. But who'da thought the baby Bulls were bad enough to do it big four in a row? Big Ben put in yeoman work, and his ability to play earnest defense straight up against the Diesel was huge. But the game ball has to go to Luol Deng. The guy did his best Rip Hamilton impression, at 6'9'' putting on a clinic of movement off the ball and midrange shooting. That said, don't believe the hype: they shoulda traded him for Pau Gasol. Deng will be a valuable piece on a winning team, but I don't see enough playmaking ability for him to be a franchise-type player. Yet. If dude ever learned a post-up game though...

While it's nice to hang on to developing young players, I'm definitely of the school of thought that a deal that gives you a shot at a title is a deal you have to make. Nevermind the need for scoring in the paint, can you imagine the looks Gordon, Hinrich, and Nocioni would be getting with a passer like Gasol out there?

As it stands in 2007, Luol Deng does not have a post up game. Neither do any of his Bull buddies. That means 'Sheed and CWebb will be frisky on offense in round two, and with their shooting, Big Ben is going to be drawn away from the basket. Rebounding is going to be critical in this series: with the Bulls' best lineup having Deng, Nocioni and Wallace, they could be hammered on the offensive boards. No rebounds means saying bye-bye to the running attack that worked so well for Chicago in round one. This doesn't  begin to mention how the Pistons backcourt matches up almost perfectly with Chicago's, with the length of Hamilton and the strength of Billups causing headaches for Gordon and Hinrich at both ends.

Nonetheless, Chicago plays harder than any team in the league. Unlike Detroit, you won't have to worry about them not showing up for a game. Deng is really on a roll, and his matchup with Tayshaun Prince (Kentucky style!) will be great to watch. Two guys who count on their length meeting their matches, it'll be very interesting to see if they elevate their games or if they malfunction like KG and Duncan do when they go head to head. You know, the "Oh %$^&, you mean I cant just turn around and shoot over the top all day?  What do I do?" syndrome.

But back to the series, I see a hard fought six games, with Detroit's road dominance on full display in the clincher. It will be the best series to watch in the second round. If you're into stuff like tough, competitive playoff basketball that is. Everyone else can watch the pretty-boy Phoenix Suns in their quest to kill defensive basketball in the NBA. Yeah I know, another column.