The conference semis are winding down, and there ain't much to talk about. Especially since I'm trying to get caught up in the games (I've watched only the endings of games 5-6 of Detroit-Chicago and game 5 of Phoenix-San Antonio, and missed game 5 of Cleveland-New Jersey.) You know how I do though, I'll stir something up anyway.

So Detroit finally closed out Chicago in six. The Pistons have difficulty dealing with success, as we saw in game 4 and game 5 (so I'm told). The other vets have been getting more press, but how 'bout my guy Tayshaun Prince in game 5? I've watched Tay since his college days, and its good to see him finally assert himself like he did at the end of game 5, abusing Luol Deng on the block repeatedly with that lefty hook. Did you see him get in Rasheed's grill after the T? That's some leadership for a guy with a rep as being soft-spoken. Good for him. Now, let's see more of the same in the next round against King James.

As for da Bulls, their reliance on jumpers finally did them in down the stretch of game 6. You've got to respect these guys, but they get the broken record treatment: GET SOMEBODY WHO CAN SCORE IN THE  PAINT! A more experienced hand on the perimeter might not hurt either; the Bulls had 5 turnovers in the fourth quarter, including some devastating ones down the stretch when the Detroit offense was stalling out. Props must be given out again to Deng though. He was up to the challenge the entire series, playing aggressively on the glass, finishing with strength, and hitting his midrange jumpers. I still don't see him as a franchise player, but he can be a key cog on a championship team.

The same cannot be said with certainty about the Bull guards, however. Granted, Gordon and Hinrich drew an extremely tough matchup, going against in Billups and Hamilton the toughest and most playoff-tested backcourt in the L. But 39% isn't going to get it done, regardless of who you're playing against. Chalk it up to a learning experience, but it will be interesting to see how these young guys respond in the future to this grade A ####-whupping.

Now playing: my wrapup of prediction for the Eastern conference bracket.

I wanted to first respond to the ravenous Bulls fans, who like to think that their manhandling the defending champs will translate into guaranteed victory: 2007 Heat =/= 2006 Heat. The 2006 Heat had a healthy DWade, and Antoine Walker was finally rolling as the third scorer/playmaker on the team. On the real though, Chicago should have beaten Miami last year. Deng didn't show up for that series and was completely outplayed by Walker, which made his breakout peformance this year all the more shocking.

I'm kinda surprised all those Bulls fans didn't bring up what Detroit should really be worried about: Nocioni's outside shooting. Noce still doesn't quite look like himself after coming back from his injuries, and we'll find out just how well he's doing come Saturday. But if he's hot, he either pulls one of Detroit's bigs away from the basket, opening up the paint for the other guys, or forces the Pistons to go small. I'm not saying he can win the series, but it would make things more interesting. I still say Pistons in six.

Cavs-Nets

Contrary to popular belief, I think this'll be a good series. On paper, the Cavs have way more talent than the Nets, who play Vince, RJ, Kidd, and Jay-Z's Roc-A-Fella crew. But between the experience of those Jersey guys and the screwiness of the Cavs roster, this will be a close series. I pick the Cavs in seven.

The trouble with the Cavs roster is that it's like they assembled two different teams, and Ferry & Co. can't decide which way to go. On one side, you have your halfcourt guys - Ziggy Ilgauskas, Drew Gooden, Eric Snow, and Donyell Marshall. On the other you have your uptempo crew - Larry Hughes, Sideshow Bob Varejao, and Pavlovic. Unfortunately, the halfcourt guys can't play fast and the uptempo guys can't really play slow. In between, you have King James, who is good enough to play both styles, but in an uptempo scheme would be the scariest thing the league's seen this side of Dr. J. Who else can you say with 100% certainty that some crazy #@% is going down whenever they get the ball in the open court?

(Here's where I'm going to talk about why LeBron is the MVP of the NBA. This deserves its own column, but I don't have the time or interest to do that right now. So I'll sum it up: look at the team he's working with. If you took out LeBron and put in a decent player, like say a Luke Walton, the guys I mentioned above would struggle to win 30 games. You're looking at Memphis east, folks. Take Nash from the Suns, replace him with a Ray Felton. You still have Barbosa, Stoudemire, Marion, Diaw, Bell and Kurt Thomas. By my count, that's two unstoppable offensive players, another top-25 player in the league, a 6'-9'' playmaking forward, a defensive specialist who can stroke the long ball, and a solid backup big man. Are you telling me that team wouldn't win 40-45 games? As for Dirk? Short answer, see the Mavs-Warriors playoff series. Kobe's the only other guy who has a legit case against Lebron. I pick LeBron because:

a) Kobe's got more help. Lamar Odom is waaaay better than any other player the Cavs have, and if you take him from the Lakers and Larry Hughes from the Cavs, the remaining guys are close, with only a slight edge in the Cavs favor.

and

b) The Lakes may have had more injuries, but they won about ten less games than the Cavs, so I call that a wash.)

All that said, the Cavs have bigs and the Nets really don't, unless you count too-young Josh Boone, too-old Cliff Robinson, and Freeway, who just isn't tall enough. Mikki Moore has a great story, and is actually pretty solid, but the Cavs are one of the best rebounding teams in the league and should feast on the boards at both ends. Defensively, the Nets are the better team though, and JKidd and Vince should be able to get into the paint and cause problems for Cleveland. (On that point, can someone tell my why coach Mike Brown has tried to make the Cavs a defensive, walk-it-up team, when NONE of his starters plays any defense and half of his guys can't score in the halfcourt? Anybody?) As tough defensively as the Nets can be, I don't see them being able to contain LeBron in a Pistons-like fashion.

Also, watch for at least one game turning on the edge in experience and poise held by the Nets. It may come in the form of missed FTs by LeBron, it may come in a key rebound or defensive play made by Jason Kidd, but know that it's coming. The problem is, I don't see there being enough tight games, especially in Cleveland, for the Nets to pull out the series.

This brings us to a Pistons-Cavs, this time in the conference finals. If you've been following the blog, then you know where this is heading. It's just a question of how many games.

I've done it now. I'm shocking the world like the Warriors with a career-high second post this year! I'm sure for you guys, this is like Christmas in April. It is for me at least.

So I got the Detroit series almost right. Good for them, they actually maintained focus for one whole playoff series. This is a major development for Dee-troit, after all, since this the team that thought it could beat the Spurs in the finals after spotting them two games. That they almost pulled it off (and really would have, had Rasheed not forgotten to guard Bob Horry for the fourth quarter and OT of game 5; that game, along with his Charles Smith impersonation against the Lakers in 2000, perfectly captures why 'Sheed has to be one of the most frustrating star players in NBA history) just shows how unique and great this team is. But we'll get to why I think they're winning the whole shooting match later in this series of posts. If I stick around until the finals, that is.

Post-mortem Bulls-Heat Diagnosis

Wow. I really didn't see this coming. In my lost column of last week, I gave the Heat almost an even chance to win this series. I think Kahn, or whoever on Fox it was who wrote this last week, nailed it right on the head: the laziness of one of the game's great underachievers of all-time is finally catching up to him.  Simply put, Shaq has never come close to his potential as a defender or rebounder (on the defensive end), which both come down to focus and effort. While the overratedness of Shaq is a whole 'nother column waiting to happen, I'll say this now: the Diesel D is such a liability, he has to be rolling offensively to justify him being out on the floor. Otherwise, the team is better with 'Zo in the middle.

After witnessing the demise of Shaq to mortal status in games 1 and 2, you knew Miami was going down. But who'da thought the baby Bulls were bad enough to do it big four in a row? Big Ben put in yeoman work, and his ability to play earnest defense straight up against the Diesel was huge. But the game ball has to go to Luol Deng. The guy did his best Rip Hamilton impression, at 6'9'' putting on a clinic of movement off the ball and midrange shooting. That said, don't believe the hype: they shoulda traded him for Pau Gasol. Deng will be a valuable piece on a winning team, but I don't see enough playmaking ability for him to be a franchise-type player. Yet. If dude ever learned a post-up game though...

While it's nice to hang on to developing young players, I'm definitely of the school of thought that a deal that gives you a shot at a title is a deal you have to make. Nevermind the need for scoring in the paint, can you imagine the looks Gordon, Hinrich, and Nocioni would be getting with a passer like Gasol out there?

As it stands in 2007, Luol Deng does not have a post up game. Neither do any of his Bull buddies. That means 'Sheed and CWebb will be frisky on offense in round two, and with their shooting, Big Ben is going to be drawn away from the basket. Rebounding is going to be critical in this series: with the Bulls' best lineup having Deng, Nocioni and Wallace, they could be hammered on the offensive boards. No rebounds means saying bye-bye to the running attack that worked so well for Chicago in round one. This doesn't  begin to mention how the Pistons backcourt matches up almost perfectly with Chicago's, with the length of Hamilton and the strength of Billups causing headaches for Gordon and Hinrich at both ends.

Nonetheless, Chicago plays harder than any team in the league. Unlike Detroit, you won't have to worry about them not showing up for a game. Deng is really on a roll, and his matchup with Tayshaun Prince (Kentucky style!) will be great to watch. Two guys who count on their length meeting their matches, it'll be very interesting to see if they elevate their games or if they malfunction like KG and Duncan do when they go head to head. You know, the "Oh %$^&, you mean I cant just turn around and shoot over the top all day?  What do I do?" syndrome.

But back to the series, I see a hard fought six games, with Detroit's road dominance on full display in the clincher. It will be the best series to watch in the second round. If you're into stuff like tough, competitive playoff basketball that is. Everyone else can watch the pretty-boy Phoenix Suns in their quest to kill defensive basketball in the NBA. Yeah I know, another column.