Because I wanted to drop my 2 cents on the state of the NBA, I present to you the latest IM chat with my fellow NBA-savant Vic. This is lightly edited and a bit thin on the analysis side, but should provide you readers with some food for thought, provided you can understand our shorthand. As context, Vic and I have been going back and forth about Lamar Odom (he thinks Phil Jackson should be meowing a la Kwame Brown when LO walks by, I say he's just another guy a la Derrick Coleman, who doesn't like basketball as much as we'd like him to) and Kobe, as you will see. And by the way, J.A. Andade, I don't really think you're an ####. You just make me really, really angry when you say stuff like Manu Ginobili is more valuable than Tim Duncan in 2008 on the basis of one playoff game. Here's the transcript:
Guru: hey man, got your messages from earlier, odom should be killing the spurs V: i saw a stat too Guru: not playing with enough intensity V: he's shooting like low 60s or high 50s from FT for Playoffs. Guru: he's got to play harder for LA to win at least on the road V: yeah man 2-11? and 63% FT shooting in playoffs so far 2-11 you can have a really really horrible night being guarded by a euro and all and blowing layups but the FT shooting? at first i thought it was a poor sample size but he's shot 80+ in FTs the playoffs so far its all mental with that guy Guru: if you watch, he's driving right into traffic every time, flipping up a shot and trying to get a call, ironically V: what's wierd to me is how streaky is statline looks one night 8-12 next night 2-11 Guru: he was the man in game 2, it is odd I think he's more important to the Lakers than Gasol in this series Gasol has his hands full with Duncan Odom needs to play well for them to win they really shoulda lost game 1 also V: yeah gasol tried to play TD 1v1 didn't work though Gasol has length Guru: for spurs, TD needs to dominate like games 1 and 3 V: TD and one other player has to have big games it was manu the other night Guru: I did like how gasol attacked duncan though, he's got good touch on that jump hook I was surprised to see that gasol had 18 shots, he blew a bunch of layups too as for another big game, I dunno about that they probably don't need 30 from any one player if the role players hit outside shots they just need to make some threes to keep LA from collapsing on dribble penetration by the Spur guards V: lakers have home court advantage so if they hold par and just win their home games as they have been they'll be fine but i think its more likely than not that this series goes to game 7 and it ends up being whether SA has enough gas to gut out yet another tough road game Guru: perhaps I like the spurs chances better in this series though V: as compared to the NO series? Guru: yeah, kobe aside, I think the hornets were a mentally tougher team then LA V: as I’ve been saying, spurs are most capable of winning it all question is do they have enough gas? spurs can take it to a higher level lakers, aside from kobe, can’t Guru: yeah, I guess the playoff this season have shown, you can't count out the old guys in SA the play of Finley, Thomas, Horry has been the most suprising to me I thought those guys were done yet it seems that in every series, there's been a game where Finley has made some huge baskets at crunch time to turn the tide game 1 phoenix, game 7 NO but we'll see V: yeah, they somehow muster up the energy but i can totally see them running out of gas these long series they probably have the toughest road Suns, NOs, lakers, east talk about murderer's row Guru: I was gonna say though, if Kobe's the Jordan-calibur player you think he is, LA could very well pull this series out V: i don’t think he's jordan at all i think he's the closest thing to jordan for all of the "next jordans" small, but significant difference Guru: that's a fairly non-controversial statement V: well yeah Guru: though the LeBron camp may take issue with it, but LeBron is too different I think V: Lebron has more god-given talent than kobe but it's comparing apples to oranges with lebron vs. jordan, or lebron vs. kobe Guru: I agree lebron is a forward/supersize guard more akin to magic and bird than jordan V: yep Guru: there was an interesting article today about the cavs, questioning whether the cavs #### offense is lebron's fault or Mike Brown's fault I never thought of it that way, but perhaps Lebron is more to blame? V: i dunno man lebron desperately needs a playmaker baron would actually be insane for him a playmaker PG would be optimal i dont know if the offense is either one's fault Z? big ben? wally world? joe smith? cavs aint exactly stocked with much more than role players and lebron Guru: hey man, some of those guys are better than you'd think V: lol Guru: z and joe smith can both shoot and post wally can hit open jumpers and move off of screens I'm not saying that they're main options but you could run some plays for them from time to time V: wally and Z in particular need the ball someone like jamison for example a scorer w/o needing to touch or dominate the ball Guru: well, minnesota used to use wally like a quasi-reggie miller/rip hamilton, running him off of screens off the ball, that's how he was a 20ppg guy V: yeah but reggie wasnt playing with a fool like lebron man i guess what i'm saying is that lebron needs opportunistic "junk" scorers hey dude put him on the hawks man Guru: guys who don't need plays run for them V: that'd be an awwwwesome team lebron, Joe Johnson and a bunch of athletes? i'd be scared scared scared of that team Guru: yeah, I think Lebron is better suited for an uptempo style too the transition game is where he's truly unstoppable but back to reality, I don't think that lets him off the hook, if indeed he is the reason, instead of the coaching staff, that the Cavs offense is so 1-dimensional V: he's probably better off in a free wheeling motion offense, with room to improvise i don't think its him or the staff i think its the GM Guru: personnel is a problem, but you think it's ok for him to play that way, even with the squad he has? V: i dont know for one he's not a PG he's a marvelously gifted passer but he's probably much better off being a guy who dumps the ball off of a double team rather than being the guy who tries to set things in motion to set up another Guru: yeah, but what the article points out is that maybe he takes on primary playmaking duties because he wants to make all the decisions because it's his team, etc V: he's still the best PG they got right? and really west, Z, wally, wallace none of then are playmakers west can dribble penetrate a bit, but i haven't seem him be a PG Guru: maybe it is academic, because it's true, none of the cavs "pgs" are true playmakers, but isn't all you need out of those guys is to bring the ball up and get the team into it's offense? that would allow lebron to work off of the ball a bit, set up and then kick out of double teams V: Lebron is ultimately the Cavs PG man. Guru: ok, so you're saying lebron has to have a true pg to win? V: not at all for one Guru: lots of teams have won without that kind of true pg V: they got the the championship round last year with a bad team second, they took a good celtics team to 7 games i'm saying that Lebron is limited by not having a true PG beside him. and he's being thrust into being the PG now is that his fault? or is that because they dont have a true PG? i say its more of the latter than the former Guru: yeah, but being the main playmaker of your team doesn't mean that you have to go 1 on 5 every time down the floor that's not what all of these teams that won without a conventional point guard has done well, if you watch, what was happening was that invariably lebron would bring the ball up in the middle of the floor, the other guys would clear out and stand around, while lebron tried to take on the Celtics D by himself V: well that's certainly not right Guru: the C's forced him into a bad shot almost every time V: that article just sounds like puffing up something small and trying to create something out of nothing fact 1 -cavs have a crappy lineup. Guru: well, Mike brown gets criticized to hell for the cavs' predictable offense V: fact 2 - i dont think anyone expected this current cav team to get anywhere very far fact 3 - just taking celts to 7 games and beating pistons last year would be, my most accounts, overachieving Guru: and if that is Lebron's fault, not the coaching staffs', well then that's interesting V: i mean damn man its like ignoring the big fat elephant in the room get bron some HELP YOU FOOLS i'd leave for jersey too or NYC #### cleveland has a cash cow and can't get their #### together? if so, they don't deserve him Guru: but I don't think lack of talent excuses playing the game the wrong way I mean yeah, cavs are ultimately not as talented as the top teams in the L V: i see it as just criticizing to criticize. Guru: its valid, if that is what's going on V: for all the cavs faults, that'd be the least of my worries they have a host of problems Guru: well, coaching may be one of them V: poor defensive team, poor offensive team, short on talent, coaching i'd address the talent one first you fix that i guaranfreakingtee you the others will be improved too wasn’t doc a much maligned coach until this years celts? Guru: he still is maligned in circles, and rightfully so V: probably would not have been if the celts swept through the east Guru: that cavs-celts series was one of the worst coached series I've seen in a while V: he was getting many kudos prior to the playoffs Guru: they might have swept through, if he wasn't such a ####kup with his lineups V: exactly so now he's getting exposed but it just goes to show how much talent can hide Guru: to the casual eye, yes V: for one i think the casual eye overrates this celtic team the 66 wins was an aberration Guru: they overachieved, because of Garnett's manic intensity, perhaps also because of the weakness of the east too more because of intensity V: they played playoff-type bball all year Guru: on defense especially V: but i remember when i first started watching them more seriously towards the end of the season and remarking dude they're a jumpshooting team who's going to take over in crunch? they're going to rely on Js? thats a huge flaw IMO Guru: one thing with the celtics, their offense is rather disorganized V: it's screen and pop for the most part Guru: if their guys are playing unselfishly, then they move the ball well and can get open looks from the perimeter but in cavs series, a lot of guys started playing 1 on 1 and the whole thing bogged down that's why ray allen has struggled so much he got no touches in the cleveland series because pierce, rondo and KG were all getting their points essentially playing 1 on 1 or 2 on 2 Guru: #### detroit though...what the #### no excuse for starting the game asleep in game 3 they were down 11-0 to start the game V: I was very suprised to see that they had lost at home i thought they were trying to make a statement by winning a game in boston WHUPS Guru: honestly, sheed and chauncey are the main problems rip has played hard every game tayshaun, I love him but on offense he has lamar odom syndrome I think he even shot 2-11 for good measure V: i am always surprised every time he backs his man down and posts him up. wtf? is he like incredibly dense or something and actually weighs 330 and doesn’t look him? wtf? Guru: hey man it works that lefty hook is lethal V: i'm surprised sometimes that he doesnt snap in half Guru: prince is surprising, they always said he needed to put on weight that was part of the reason he slipped in the draft V: so far it doesn’t look like he has he also wasn't your typical run jump athlete i recall him being a good shooter at KY Guru: he might have put on a little bit of weight since uk days, I think he looks more toned now yeah, he did post at UK V: he's probably up to a what Guru: he was a 4 in college V: bulky 209 now? Guru: something like that, 210-215 V: clearly a freight train in the post eh? Guru: hahah right I guess maybe he's too agile to dislodge down there? it's hard to say V: i dunno perhaps yeah so maybe he's too much of a threat to do a spin and go around you so guys are hesitant to lean on him too much? i dunno Guru: yeah, it's just frustrating to be a fan of this team sometimes they really needed some change after last season's debacle hopefully Flip has the balls to bench chauncey if he's playing like #### again in game 4 V: i heard he was injured Guru: with stuckey around and playing so well, it's inexcusable to leave billups in and have him hurt the team V: ah how has billups been hurting the team Guru: just being lackluster really he has no explosion going to the basket, so he's reduced to being a jumpshooter he allowed rondo to get into the lane on defense 1-6 shooting, 4 assists to 2 TOs V: ouch that hurts Guru: just did not get it done he still played 27 mins though btw, tay did shoot 2-11 V: ouch Guru: the odom comparison is pretty good actually, I always read stories about how flip is begging him to shoot more V: i'm wondering if flip is too lackadaisacal and not lighting a fire under their #### Guru: he is, for this group V: how about the challenge of beating a hyped up celtics team? if you cant get up for that then i dunno Guru: it sticks out, especially compared to larry brown brown didn't give a ####, he would bench guys if they weren't playing well it would #### off billups all the time, but they were more successful for it V: yeah brown does have a rep though 3 yrs then teams tune him out V: so i dunno if even having him would help this current team Guru: tru dat V: and to be honest, i'm confused as to why the pistons are so laissez faire about it. they won one champsionship Guru: but I wonder if they had more of a leader as a coach, it wouldn't make a difference V: they are more like the buffalo bills than the dallas cowboys if i was the latter, i'd be cocky, but not really the former Guru: the running analogy is that they're the atlanta braves of the nba V: ah yeah close, but not always on top Guru: yeah, it's stupid like I said, it's coming from their "leaders" sheed and billups Guru: even when they lose they're cocky like right after they lost to the cavs, you have quotes like "we still feel we're the better team" true perhaps, but wtf? V: yeah after getting booted in the playoffs you'd think they'd be more humble... if they had won like 2-3 in a row then lost i could see it but it's been a while since they won Guru: it's just sad really, those guys were in their mid-late 20's when they won their ring they really coulda made a dynasty of this team but they ####ked themselves with their arrogance V: starting to look a bit old man Guru: if you look, their playoff losses in each of the last 3 years can be traced to their attitude yeah, they don't have much time left V: after 3 yrs they have gotta say ok maybe its US Guru: exactly you would think Guru: actually, I wanted to go back to what we were discussing a while earlier so you don't think Kobe's as good as jordan, but you still think he's one of those #1 guys who can carry a team to a championship, right? is he in the same tier? (as you imagine, I say no, based on his record up until now) V: hehehe i'm not surprised it remains to be seen with kobe. he certainly has a good shot this year Guru: his stage is set I don't think they beat the spurs without him having at least one of those crazy games Guru: OMG, why do I even read espn anymore, I should really know better Andade is a freaking #### to say ginobili is more important to the spurs than duncan absolutely an #### of course we knew that already, but damn V: LOL yeah man i read that and i was like WHHHHAAA? that's like saying kobe was more important than shaq but are essential but one is clearly more valuable than the other. V: i'm gonna head out of the office ttyl
First, see the comment I made on the last post to get my last take (for now) on Bustomania 2007: The Detroit Pistons. I'ma try to move on now.
The finals. So I picked Cleveland to win, because I think they match up well with the Spurs, as long as they aren't too happy just to be in the finals. So what happens? They go and get intimidated by the bright lights and lose in a game that wasn't really ever competitive.
I could go on about Mike Brown's strategic ineptitude for a while (So it was a good idea to have Bron bring the ball up, even though you won in Detroit by playing him off the ball? What about leaving the only guy shooting the ball well on the bench for most of the game?), but fear of the moment was what made the Cavs miss open looks and get outrebounded more than anything the Spurs were doing. And then there was King James. 14 points and 6 turnovers won't get it done.
The good news for Cavs fans is that the team probably won't play as bad in game 2. And the Spurs? They did what they were supposed to do. Timmy played well, but wasn't as dominant offensively as he'll need to be when (if?) Cleveland shows up for this series. That's to be expected though, when Parker can get 20+ on mostly layups. Maybe the Cavs will make him shoot a jumper next time around. Or something. Just an idea.
The Cavs played badly, but this was the one game they could afford to use to get their finals sea legs. Game 2, though, now becomes a must-win for Cleveland, thanks to the 2-3-2 format that stacks the odds so strongly against the underdog. If the Cavs lose game 2, they would have to sweep their three home games to win the series. Last time that happened? Oh yeah, Pistons '04. So much for moving on.
My denial aside, I did want to address all of the noise floating around about breaking up the Pistons. If you're paying attention, you'll see that most of this is coming from longtime haters, who've never appreciated Detroit's blue collar style, and would love to see half-court basketball and real defense abolished from the NBA. Puh-leeze.
The fact remains that the core of this team is all in its prime, with playoff experience only the Spurs can match. Rip, Chauncey, Tay and 'Sheed are also the rare players who compete on both sides of the ball, as is Antonio McDyess. Forget the critics: this team is not showing any physical signs of decline, and can compete at a high level for at least another two years before Chauncey and 'Sheed start to get old. As bad as their loss was (and believe me, I feel it), people forget that it was in the conference finals, not like the early round flameouts that spelled the end for the Jazz and Kings a few years back.
But at the same time, you can't ignore the problems the team has. Namely, they still don't get enough from their bench, and they need another impact big man to fill the hole left by Ben Wallace. Letting Big Ben walk was the second biggest mistake, after Darko, Joe Dumars has made in his GM career. Not so much because of his hard-line negotiating, because Chicago's contract offer was ridiculous and will handicap that franchise in the future, but because Joe D had already committed to resigning Ben at any price when he gave away Darko to free up cap space. The Pistons then could not afford to let Ben walk, because they didn't have the cap space to sign a replacement and Darko was the only trade chip the team had to bring in somebody else without breaking up the core. In that context, would giving Ben, say, $14 million a year have been so bad?
Now, having not filled the void one year later, the Pistons will need some luck to rebalance their roster, which will be tough in the draft or in free agency. As for the existing roster, there isn't a whole lot of hope either. Though he has yet to develop a single offensive skill, Jason Maxiell looks ready to step in and be a regular - the Pistons' best defensive lineup was him with the '04 leftover crew. The same can't be said about Carlos Delfino, who mostly plays scared. Amir Johnson's been said to be a beast in the D-League, but is basically a rookie when it comes to playing in the L.
One thing that can be changed from within though is the man on the hot seat, Flip Saunders. Flip does some things well, especially on the offensive end. The problem is, he's still learning how to win in the playoffs. Will the Pistons still be able to contend when he eventually figures it out? As much as I don't like knee-jerk coaching changes, the clock is ticking on this group. Unfortunately, the guy I thought would best suit this crew was Rick Adelman, because of his offensive creativity. But of who's still out there, I would take a look at Paul Silas, who won rings as a player, and didn't do too badly with the Hornets or the Cavs. Or maybe Mike Fratello, who's abrasive but seemed to get the most out of his teams.
With the latest reports saying that Flip is safe for next season, it looks like the brass in Detroit is choosing to ignore the last two seasons. And the half-hearted endorsements of the Piston players when asked about Flip's performance. While I can't say there's no chance of it playing out differently, I won't be surprised if I write this column again next June.
Wow. I still can't believe they lost. Because I was on the road (believe it or not, I'm not parked by the comp all day), I missed game 6, but I can't imagine it being too different from the running themes of this series:
-Billups being lost at sea; that's two seasons where your no-show has killed the team, Chauncey. I honestly don't know what to make of this guy, who once upon a time was one of the true assassins of the league. He showed flashes of that in game 5, but in every other game, you were more likely to see an errant pass or a bad shot than a "big shot" from this mister. More like big ####!
And yet, the Pistons can't afford for him to just walk in the offseason. I don't know where they go with this guy.
-Flip's follies; aside from Billups, did anyone else look more lost out there than Flop Saunders? How do you let someone score almost 30 pts in a row against you? Without taking repeated hard fouls or trapping at the free throw line? And how do you forget about your leading scorer at crunch time (Rip did not see the ball enough)? I think dem Wallace boys are right - Flip looked in over his head throughout this series. And against Mike Brown, that's hard to do.
-Anyone seen Tayshaun Prince? - I love the guy, but his performance this series was pathetic, perfectly symbolized by his running for cover while Lebron was busy dunking away game 5 and the series. Outmuscled, outquicked, and outwilled , it looked like he lost the fight in him as the games progressed. It's imperative that he find it before next year starts, because of all labels, none is as damning as "soft."
And its that last part that really bothers me about how the eastern conference finals went down. Detroit's calling card during their five year run has been their toughness and ability to step up in the clutch. But in game 5 (and probably game 6 too - how do you lose an elimination game by 20 points? I thought that was a Laker thing.), they did not show any guts. They got out of the way whenever Lebron came down the lane, hung Tayshaun, Rip, or whoever was guarding Lebron out to dry by alowing 'Bron to go one-on-one, and put up contested jumpers (or turning it over) when they should have been moving the basketball. Championship calibur teams don't allow uncontested layups and dunks to beat them at crunch time.
But the Pistons couldn't muster the courage to send Lebron to the line, where he's shaky at best, while he was emasculating and humiliating them. Maybe this is where Ben Wallace would have stepped in to stop the bleeding. Who knows. But the only fight I saw in that team was Rasheed going after the refs, blaming others for his failure to take a shot better than an 18-foot fadeaway.
Give Cleveland credit - they played up to their potential, and Lebron was beyond amazing. And yes, the officiating was atrocious - how many phantom fouls were called when Lebron decided to fall down? But this series was more about the superior team giving in to a less experienced, less talented one. And I never thought I'd see a Detroit team lose like that.
The conference semis are winding down, and there ain't much to talk about. Especially since I'm trying to get caught up in the games (I've watched only the endings of games 5-6 of Detroit-Chicago and game 5 of Phoenix-San Antonio, and missed game 5 of Cleveland-New Jersey.) You know how I do though, I'll stir something up anyway.
So Detroit finally closed out Chicago in six. The Pistons have difficulty dealing with success, as we saw in game 4 and game 5 (so I'm told). The other vets have been getting more press, but how 'bout my guy Tayshaun Prince in game 5? I've watched Tay since his college days, and its good to see him finally assert himself like he did at the end of game 5, abusing Luol Deng on the block repeatedly with that lefty hook. Did you see him get in Rasheed's grill after the T? That's some leadership for a guy with a rep as being soft-spoken. Good for him. Now, let's see more of the same in the next round against King James.
As for da Bulls, their reliance on jumpers finally did them in down the stretch of game 6. You've got to respect these guys, but they get the broken record treatment: GET SOMEBODY WHO CAN SCORE IN THE PAINT! A more experienced hand on the perimeter might not hurt either; the Bulls had 5 turnovers in the fourth quarter, including some devastating ones down the stretch when the Detroit offense was stalling out. Props must be given out again to Deng though. He was up to the challenge the entire series, playing aggressively on the glass, finishing with strength, and hitting his midrange jumpers. I still don't see him as a franchise player, but he can be a key cog on a championship team.
The same cannot be said with certainty about the Bull guards, however. Granted, Gordon and Hinrich drew an extremely tough matchup, going against in Billups and Hamilton the toughest and most playoff-tested backcourt in the L. But 39% isn't going to get it done, regardless of who you're playing against. Chalk it up to a learning experience, but it will be interesting to see how these young guys respond in the future to this grade A ####-whupping.
Now playing: my wrapup of prediction for the Eastern conference bracket.
I wanted to first respond to the ravenous Bulls fans, who like to think that their manhandling the defending champs will translate into guaranteed victory: 2007 Heat =/= 2006 Heat. The 2006 Heat had a healthy DWade, and Antoine Walker was finally rolling as the third scorer/playmaker on the team. On the real though, Chicago should have beaten Miami last year. Deng didn't show up for that series and was completely outplayed by Walker, which made his breakout peformance this year all the more shocking.
I'm kinda surprised all those Bulls fans didn't bring up what Detroit should really be worried about: Nocioni's outside shooting. Noce still doesn't quite look like himself after coming back from his injuries, and we'll find out just how well he's doing come Saturday. But if he's hot, he either pulls one of Detroit's bigs away from the basket, opening up the paint for the other guys, or forces the Pistons to go small. I'm not saying he can win the series, but it would make things more interesting. I still say Pistons in six.
Cavs-Nets
Contrary to popular belief, I think this'll be a good series. On paper, the Cavs have way more talent than the Nets, who play Vince, RJ, Kidd, and Jay-Z's Roc-A-Fella crew. But between the experience of those Jersey guys and the screwiness of the Cavs roster, this will be a close series. I pick the Cavs in seven.
The trouble with the Cavs roster is that it's like they assembled two different teams, and Ferry & Co. can't decide which way to go. On one side, you have your halfcourt guys - Ziggy Ilgauskas, Drew Gooden, Eric Snow, and Donyell Marshall. On the other you have your uptempo crew - Larry Hughes, Sideshow Bob Varejao, and Pavlovic. Unfortunately, the halfcourt guys can't play fast and the uptempo guys can't really play slow. In between, you have King James, who is good enough to play both styles, but in an uptempo scheme would be the scariest thing the league's seen this side of Dr. J. Who else can you say with 100% certainty that some crazy #@% is going down whenever they get the ball in the open court?
(Here's where I'm going to talk about why LeBron is the MVP of the NBA. This deserves its own column, but I don't have the time or interest to do that right now. So I'll sum it up: look at the team he's working with. If you took out LeBron and put in a decent player, like say a Luke Walton, the guys I mentioned above would struggle to win 30 games. You're looking at Memphis east, folks. Take Nash from the Suns, replace him with a Ray Felton. You still have Barbosa, Stoudemire, Marion, Diaw, Bell and Kurt Thomas. By my count, that's two unstoppable offensive players, another top-25 player in the league, a 6'-9'' playmaking forward, a defensive specialist who can stroke the long ball, and a solid backup big man. Are you telling me that team wouldn't win 40-45 games? As for Dirk? Short answer, see the Mavs-Warriors playoff series. Kobe's the only other guy who has a legit case against Lebron. I pick LeBron because:
a) Kobe's got more help. Lamar Odom is waaaay better than any other player the Cavs have, and if you take him from the Lakers and Larry Hughes from the Cavs, the remaining guys are close, with only a slight edge in the Cavs favor.
and
b) The Lakes may have had more injuries, but they won about ten less games than the Cavs, so I call that a wash.)
All that said, the Cavs have bigs and the Nets really don't, unless you count too-young Josh Boone, too-old Cliff Robinson, and Freeway, who just isn't tall enough. Mikki Moore has a great story, and is actually pretty solid, but the Cavs are one of the best rebounding teams in the league and should feast on the boards at both ends. Defensively, the Nets are the better team though, and JKidd and Vince should be able to get into the paint and cause problems for Cleveland. (On that point, can someone tell my why coach Mike Brown has tried to make the Cavs a defensive, walk-it-up team, when NONE of his starters plays any defense and half of his guys can't score in the halfcourt? Anybody?) As tough defensively as the Nets can be, I don't see them being able to contain LeBron in a Pistons-like fashion.
Also, watch for at least one game turning on the edge in experience and poise held by the Nets. It may come in the form of missed FTs by LeBron, it may come in a key rebound or defensive play made by Jason Kidd, but know that it's coming. The problem is, I don't see there being enough tight games, especially in Cleveland, for the Nets to pull out the series.
This brings us to a Pistons-Cavs, this time in the conference finals. If you've been following the blog, then you know where this is heading. It's just a question of how many games.
Just when I thought I was talking to myself here, I get my first reader comment. (sniffs) Ahh, the sweet smell of success. Moving on,
Cavs-Wizards
I admit, I've only watched game 1 of this series. Talk about blah. The Cavs, hardly one of the NBA's elite teams, cruised through that game in regular season mode, and just made enough plays in the fourth quarter to win. From what I've heard, it's been this way all series. Since the games themselves have been unremarkable, time to bring out another axe to grind...
The Cavs-Wiz series is the posterchild for why the NBA season is too long. By extending the playoff to a 4 best-of-seven series format, the NBA has effectively made the cliche'd "second season" a reality. Throw in the nation team off-season commitment, and the league is physically demanding more from players, especially the stars, than ever before. What are the results of this?
-INJURIES. Fatigue makes ^#$^$#^es of us all. Based on my limited athletic experience, and from what I've seen and heard, fatigue is one of the biggest causes of injuries in sports. When you play tired, you start taking short cuts, get out of position more, and this leads you to getting hurt. To varying degrees, I would bet the injuries to Dwyane Wade, Lamar Odom, and yes, Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler, were all caused by a combination of fatigue and compensation for other injuries.
-Regular season apathy. The last ten games of the season are throwaways for all teams not fighting to get into the playoffs. Why? Partly because the extra wear and tear on a good team's regulars is a greater risk than any marginal improvement in playoff position. Back in the day, when the playoffs rarely spanned more than 20 games for the finalists, teams didn't have to worry as much about resting their regulars because the playoffs were just icing on top of the long regular season. Also, from the players' standpoint, what's the best way to avoid getting too tired to make it through the playoffs? Hint: ask Tim Duncan (see:his first few months of the season), Shaq (see: roughly the last dozen years of his career, minus his first two championship seasons), and the Detroit Pistons (two of the last three regular seasons for the whole rotation, except maybe for Tayshaun Prince; I can never tell the difference between when he's not playing hard and when he's just in passive mode).
Why should the NBA care? After all, the reason they'll never shorten the season, since 10 extra games of even diminished revenue (from meaningless end-of-season games) is better than nothing.
The best reason is because the fans lose out in the current system. Last year's Cavs-Wiz series was great, because we got to see LeBron and Gilbert Arenas go head to head for six gut-wrenching games. Between the DVR and my sneaking out of work early, I didn't miss a game of the series. This year, we're stuck with LeBron against...Deshaun Stevenson. Not quite "must-see-TV." And if the Guru's not feeling it, what is the casual fan thinking? Is there a record for lamest crowd in a playoff game? I have to hand it to the fans in Cleveland, even with with the Washington Generals as their opponents, they represented better than Laker and Heat fans have in past years. They at least knew when the game was starting.
But I digress. Back to my point, if fans get a steady diet of sabotaged playoff series' and half-hearted regular season games, then they start to lose faith in the product. This is the exact kind of intangible loss in revenue that the league can conveniently ignore unfortunately.
I could go on, but I was supposed to talk about Wiz-Cavs. Well, even though the Cavs aren't very good, they've gotten to 3-0. I'll go out on a limb and say they end it tonight with the clean sweep.
Oh yeah, I mentioned MVP also. That's LeBron James. Not particularly close even. I'll have to pick up there next time.
I've done it now. I'm shocking the world like the Warriors with a career-high second post this year! I'm sure for you guys, this is like Christmas in April. It is for me at least.
So I got the Detroit series almost right. Good for them, they actually maintained focus for one whole playoff series. This is a major development for Dee-troit, after all, since this the team that thought it could beat the Spurs in the finals after spotting them two games. That they almost pulled it off (and really would have, had Rasheed not forgotten to guard Bob Horry for the fourth quarter and OT of game 5; that game, along with his Charles Smith impersonation against the Lakers in 2000, perfectly captures why 'Sheed has to be one of the most frustrating star players in NBA history) just shows how unique and great this team is. But we'll get to why I think they're winning the whole shooting match later in this series of posts. If I stick around until the finals, that is.
Post-mortem Bulls-Heat Diagnosis
Wow. I really didn't see this coming. In my lost column of last week, I gave the Heat almost an even chance to win this series. I think Kahn, or whoever on Fox it was who wrote this last week, nailed it right on the head: the laziness of one of the game's great underachievers of all-time is finally catching up to him. Simply put, Shaq has never come close to his potential as a defender or rebounder (on the defensive end), which both come down to focus and effort. While the overratedness of Shaq is a whole 'nother column waiting to happen, I'll say this now: the Diesel D is such a liability, he has to be rolling offensively to justify him being out on the floor. Otherwise, the team is better with 'Zo in the middle.
After witnessing the demise of Shaq to mortal status in games 1 and 2, you knew Miami was going down. But who'da thought the baby Bulls were bad enough to do it big four in a row? Big Ben put in yeoman work, and his ability to play earnest defense straight up against the Diesel was huge. But the game ball has to go to Luol Deng. The guy did his best Rip Hamilton impression, at 6'9'' putting on a clinic of movement off the ball and midrange shooting. That said, don't believe the hype: they shoulda traded him for Pau Gasol. Deng will be a valuable piece on a winning team, but I don't see enough playmaking ability for him to be a franchise-type player. Yet. If dude ever learned a post-up game though...
While it's nice to hang on to developing young players, I'm definitely of the school of thought that a deal that gives you a shot at a title is a deal you have to make. Nevermind the need for scoring in the paint, can you imagine the looks Gordon, Hinrich, and Nocioni would be getting with a passer like Gasol out there?
As it stands in 2007, Luol Deng does not have a post up game. Neither do any of his Bull buddies. That means 'Sheed and CWebb will be frisky on offense in round two, and with their shooting, Big Ben is going to be drawn away from the basket. Rebounding is going to be critical in this series: with the Bulls' best lineup having Deng, Nocioni and Wallace, they could be hammered on the offensive boards. No rebounds means saying bye-bye to the running attack that worked so well for Chicago in round one. This doesn't begin to mention how the Pistons backcourt matches up almost perfectly with Chicago's, with the length of Hamilton and the strength of Billups causing headaches for Gordon and Hinrich at both ends.
Nonetheless, Chicago plays harder than any team in the league. Unlike Detroit, you won't have to worry about them not showing up for a game. Deng is really on a roll, and his matchup with Tayshaun Prince (Kentucky style!) will be great to watch. Two guys who count on their length meeting their matches, it'll be very interesting to see if they elevate their games or if they malfunction like KG and Duncan do when they go head to head. You know, the "Oh %$^&, you mean I cant just turn around and shoot over the top all day? What do I do?" syndrome.
But back to the series, I see a hard fought six games, with Detroit's road dominance on full display in the clincher. It will be the best series to watch in the second round. If you're into stuff like tough, competitive playoff basketball that is. Everyone else can watch the pretty-boy Phoenix Suns in their quest to kill defensive basketball in the NBA. Yeah I know, another column.
