NBAGuru's Sanctuary: Filling the Gaps for the NBA
by: NBAGuru
Eastern philosophy, part I
May 02, 2007 | 4:17PM | report this

Now playing: my wrapup of prediction for the Eastern conference bracket.

I wanted to first respond to the ravenous Bulls fans, who like to think that their manhandling the defending champs will translate into guaranteed victory: 2007 Heat =/= 2006 Heat. The 2006 Heat had a healthy DWade, and Antoine Walker was finally rolling as the third scorer/playmaker on the team. On the real though, Chicago should have beaten Miami last year. Deng didn't show up for that series and was completely outplayed by Walker, which made his breakout peformance this year all the more shocking.

I'm kinda surprised all those Bulls fans didn't bring up what Detroit should really be worried about: Nocioni's outside shooting. Noce still doesn't quite look like himself after coming back from his injuries, and we'll find out just how well he's doing come Saturday. But if he's hot, he either pulls one of Detroit's bigs away from the basket, opening up the paint for the other guys, or forces the Pistons to go small. I'm not saying he can win the series, but it would make things more interesting. I still say Pistons in six.

Cavs-Nets

Contrary to popular belief, I think this'll be a good series. On paper, the Cavs have way more talent than the Nets, who play Vince, RJ, Kidd, and Jay-Z's Roc-A-Fella crew. But between the experience of those Jersey guys and the screwiness of the Cavs roster, this will be a close series. I pick the Cavs in seven.

The trouble with the Cavs roster is that it's like they assembled two different teams, and Ferry & Co. can't decide which way to go. On one side, you have your halfcourt guys - Ziggy Ilgauskas, Drew Gooden, Eric Snow, and Donyell Marshall. On the other you have your uptempo crew - Larry Hughes, Sideshow Bob Varejao, and Pavlovic. Unfortunately, the halfcourt guys can't play fast and the uptempo guys can't really play slow. In between, you have King James, who is good enough to play both styles, but in an uptempo scheme would be the scariest thing the league's seen this side of Dr. J. Who else can you say with 100% certainty that some crazy #@% is going down whenever they get the ball in the open court?

(Here's where I'm going to talk about why LeBron is the MVP of the NBA. This deserves its own column, but I don't have the time or interest to do that right now. So I'll sum it up: look at the team he's working with. If you took out LeBron and put in a decent player, like say a Luke Walton, the guys I mentioned above would struggle to win 30 games. You're looking at Memphis east, folks. Take Nash from the Suns, replace him with a Ray Felton. You still have Barbosa, Stoudemire, Marion, Diaw, Bell and Kurt Thomas. By my count, that's two unstoppable offensive players, another top-25 player in the league, a 6'-9'' playmaking forward, a defensive specialist who can stroke the long ball, and a solid backup big man. Are you telling me that team wouldn't win 40-45 games? As for Dirk? Short answer, see the Mavs-Warriors playoff series. Kobe's the only other guy who has a legit case against Lebron. I pick LeBron because:

a) Kobe's got more help. Lamar Odom is waaaay better than any other player the Cavs have, and if you take him from the Lakers and Larry Hughes from the Cavs, the remaining guys are close, with only a slight edge in the Cavs favor.

and

b) The Lakes may have had more injuries, but they won about ten less games than the Cavs, so I call that a wash.)

All that said, the Cavs have bigs and the Nets really don't, unless you count too-young Josh Boone, too-old Cliff Robinson, and Freeway, who just isn't tall enough. Mikki Moore has a great story, and is actually pretty solid, but the Cavs are one of the best rebounding teams in the league and should feast on the boards at both ends. Defensively, the Nets are the better team though, and JKidd and Vince should be able to get into the paint and cause problems for Cleveland. (On that point, can someone tell my why coach Mike Brown has tried to make the Cavs a defensive, walk-it-up team, when NONE of his starters plays any defense and half of his guys can't score in the halfcourt? Anybody?) As tough defensively as the Nets can be, I don't see them being able to contain LeBron in a Pistons-like fashion.

Also, watch for at least one game turning on the edge in experience and poise held by the Nets. It may come in the form of missed FTs by LeBron, it may come in a key rebound or defensive play made by Jason Kidd, but know that it's coming. The problem is, I don't see there being enough tight games, especially in Cleveland, for the Nets to pull out the series.

This brings us to a Pistons-Cavs, this time in the conference finals. If you've been following the blog, then you know where this is heading. It's just a question of how many games.

Add a comment   categories: NBA, NBA Playoffs, NBA Tipoff, Eastern Conference, Detroit Pistons, Chicago Bulls, New Jersey Nets, Cleveland Cavaliers, LeBron James, Miami Heat, NBA MVP
 
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