It's about that time to remember that I have this blog on foxsports, which allows me to rant and rave whenever something I read about the NBA catches my ire. The catch of the day is this article by Bob Fitzgerald, who if I'm not mistaken is the guy on FSN who covers Warriors games with Jim Barnett. I think most of Bob's musings about the NBA are wrong and crack-induced, but the following article introduces some interesting ideas, particularly regarding a 3-division alignment.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/22070-Thoughts-
on-NBA-Re-Alignment-and-a-New-Playoff-Format-08050
8


Where Bob starts to go wrong is where he starts to discuss the playoffs.  I generally oppose a seeding scheme that doesn't take conference into account, because I think conference rivalries still have meaning and are more interesting to watch.  But none of his ideas, however, are worse than his suggestion that the 2-3-2 format should be used for all playoff series. 

The fact is, 2-3-2 is a disaster and I hope someday that the league comes to its senses and returns the finals to 2-2-1-1-1, with more time in between games if necessary. The article's commentators, who do not know anything apparently (I wish there was a rule: if you don't like the NBA, you aren't allowed to spew your ignorant garbage on the internet), do not understand that 2-3-2 actually tilts the series to the FAVORITE's advantage. Placing all of the underdog's games consecutively puts tremendous pressure on the underdog to win 3 straight games in the playoffs to defend their home court. In the 23 years of 2-3-2 in the finals, the underdog has swept the 3 consecutive home games exactly TWICE (03-04, which really shouldn't count since the Lakers needed a miraculous Kobe shot to prevent a sweep, and 05-06). Winning 3 straight games in a playoff series seldom happens, and usually is the result of a disparity in the quality of the teams. 2-3-2 actually reduces the competitiveness of the finals and gives the favorite an unfair advantage.  Please NBA, kick the stupid 2-3-2 to the curb and return to a finals format that provides at least a semblance of an even playing field!

Here's the latest of my transcribed BB posts for your reading pleasure. I know it's a half-assed way to run a blog, but it kills 2 birds with one stone and hey, it's better than the big fat nothing I'd be posting here otherwise.

The context here is a discussion of Dallas trading for Jason Kidd by parting with Devin Harris and other spare parts (sorry Stackhouse, that's what they call you these days).

"Is it still cool to bring this up? What with the grand larceny the Lakers pulled, all Kidd talk has been pushed to a background, but I wanted to bring it back. Like Magic and Chuck on TNT, I got something to say. Warning: major rant ahead, mixed with a really long post. [I cannot wait to see what the censor does with this post!]

Jason Kidd, what a complex case. On one hand, you have, for most of his career, the quintessential unselfish point guard. By my count, the second best point in the modern era, behind only Magic, ahead of Isaiah and Stockton. Great combination of size at 6'5'' and blazing speed, especially with the basketball. Not a great shooter, but great killer instinct and a knack for hitting the big shots.

Kidd doesn't get nearly enough credit for his early work in Jersey, where his turnaround of that team was and always will be more impressive than what Nash did in Phoenix (don't even get me started on this, I could write a book). People forget that he took a truly second rate supporting cast to the finals back to back. Even in a watered down east, that's an amazing feat for a non-center.

While Kidd's slipped some since those days, especially on the defensive end, he's still got enough in the tank to average a triple double in last year's playoffs through two rounds. No other player I've seen has come close to doing such a thing. To put it bluntly, I've been a huge fan of dude's game for years.

On the other hand, you have the BS that's been going on this season. Despite what some would have you believe, NJ has the talent this season to be a 50-win team. Even without Krstic, in the sorry eastern conference it was possible with a healthy RJ, Vince, and the young talent on board. Instead, the Nets are horrible, and it is BECAUSE of Jason Kidd. From watching the Nets a handful of times recently, I've come to the conclusion that Kidd has just given up. On his teammates, on this season. In the past, he's dictated the pace oBLEEPame, and made all of the plays for the team at crunch time. This year he's been invisible down the stretch of games, and his team looks headless, leading to a ton of losses in close games. He simply doesn't give a BLEEP, and it's shocking. His apathetic and passionless play is very disturbing to see, especially from a player going to the hall of fame because of his leadership and being the ultimate team player.

...[Y]ou really have to watch the Nets to understand how off Kidd's play is. It really speaks poorly of his character, and I'm supremely disappointed in the guy. Stars tanking on bad teams is not a new concept. Kidd's own teammate admits to doing it in Toronto. KG was doing it the past few seasons in Minny. But the difference is that Vince Carter's Raps and KG's Wolves were truly hopeless situations. If those guys played there BLEEP off, their teams might have made the playoffs. In Jersey, if Kidd plays his BLEEP off, the Nets  are looking at maybe a 5 seed, with an outside shot at getting home court advantage in the first round. With a healthy Krstic, they could be in position to make a run deep into the playoffs. The Nets aren't as good as Detroit or Boston, but talentwise they could hang with every other team. And who knows, with a move or two maybe they coulda challenged the East's elite. [hmm, a certain 7-footer who was on the trading block would have looked nice on their front line...]

What's more, I'm amazed that that media has not really picked up on this tank job. Nets fans should boo Kidd's BLEEP every home game for his half-hearted play and if Thorn is going to cave to his trade request, they should suspend him just like the Sixers did Iverson. F#%@% trade value, his apathy is completely destroying the Nets season and the team would be better off figuring things out without him instead of relying upon their former leader and watching him lifelessly throw the season away.

Speaking of AI, there's an example oBLEEPuy in a truly hopeless situation (no RJ, VC or vets at all around him in Philly) who kept busting his butt and handled the situation much better. Why? AI has the class to realize that if you're going to suit up, you should feel some obligation to your teammates, your fans, and yourself to play the game like you care instead of going through the motions. That Kidd's individual stats are so good speaks more of his natural ability than anything else. I have no idea how he's averaging 10 assists a game the way he's playing. Overall, what Kidd's doing is disgusting and a disgrace. I no longer know what to think about the guy.

Despite all of this, I believe that Kidd's play would pick up dramatically if he got his wish and were traded to Dallas. Based on this past summer, he's got plenty in the tank when his head is screwed on straight, and the bottom line is that he's still a hall-of-fame caliber point guard. You may be mortgaging the future by trading away Harris, but Harris probably won't ever reach that level, and getting Kidd would give the Mavs a better chance of getting a ring overall.

A better chance of winning 1+ rings in the next few years > being in the hunt, but not good enough to win a ring for 5-6 years. If you're in it to win rings, you make the Harris-Kidd swap, unless you strongly believe the team will be good enough to win a ring with Harris.  Don't get me wrong, Dallas COULD win the chip with Harris. But I wouldn't bet on it this year - I have at least Phoenix ahead of them. San Antonio and the Lakers ain't far behind either. And does Harris make the Mavs future brighter than, say, the Lakers with Bynum, especially now with Gasol in tow?"

So to recap, for those not into words: Jason Kidd is playing really badly, but Dallas should still trade for him. Any questions kids?

I thought this debate was interesting because both guys were drafted in '96, they're two of the best small guards in the modern era (though at 6'3'', Nash is actually closer in size to Jason Kidd than he is to Iverson), and Nash gets so much more media hype and love than AI. So I put the question to the other players in one of my fantasy leagues (ugh...don't ask me why I joined a league with no injured list and 14-player rosters - the dumbest fantasy format I've ever seen). Actually, I asked two questions: who's had the better career and who would you rather have running your team? The consensus was for AI on the first part, for predictable reasons (took his team to the finals, more of a franchise player, been great for 12 years vs just 6 years for Nash, etc.).  Here's my thoughts on the subject - I figured this was one of my better rants, best not let it go to waste.

"I agree, AI is the better player.

The [reasons above] covered most of the best arguments for AI, but I'd also add the fact that AI has been the tougher player. Even though AI has played well over 40 minutes per game, he never runs out of gas at the end of the season, unlike Nash, who has looked tired in the playoffs the last two years. I'm not saying Nash is soft, but it's crazy how durable and tough AI is - he never gets tired!

While Nash is an atrocious defender, AI is also pretty bad on D - he gambles a lot for steals and always seems out of position, despite his athletic ability. He may be marginally better than Nash, only because I don't see teams isolate against AI the same way they exploit Nash (watch what Nellie does with Baron, for example; Pop also does it with Parker, when Tony's not playing like Eva). Nash's D literally costs his team games, which is why [I can't believe] that he actually won MVP twice.

For the same reasons AI's had a better career, I'd rather have him on my team. Nash fits in easier with teams because of his passing. But if you surround AI with guys who play defense, you'll have a better team, because AI will come up bigger in crunch time. He's been better than Nash in the playoffs, and I think he'll give you a better chance of winning a ring.

Denver's problem right now is that they don't have enough of a defensive mentality to make up for AI (and Melo) not playing any damn defense. That's why there's a real chance AI will bolt when he hits free agency (next summer? two years?). My Pistons should be under the cap by 2009. Hmmm...

Oh yeah, and I was partially inspired by this:

http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/7650438

bullspit article, where Rosen proves that Nash's teammates are better then AI's, then uses it to argue that Nash is better than AI. I like how the numbers show AI had the better game, so he has to use some other  arguments to prove his point."

Wassup, blog crew, I've found myself with some free time, so I'ma weigh in on the offseason moves. From the top:

 
Rockets: Juwan Howard to TWolves for Mike James and Justin Reed

 Looks like the Rox are gambling that last year was a fluke for the 30-something James. And I ain't gonna lie: I haven't seen MJ play since his last stint in Houston, against the Mavs in '05.  He was the second or third best scorer on the team in that series (Yao was good, but always in foul trouble). JVG shoulda given him more burn, but instead stuck with the shooting-challenged Bob Sura. Not that I'm still bitter about that series or anything.

 But in 2007, I don't see Mike James as a significant upgrade over Rafer Alston, if at all. Both are thirtysomething guards who are perfect coming off of the bench on a winning team. But no one of these guys now is going to have to start.

Losing Howard hurts as well, leaving Chuck Hayes as the only power forward left.  Unless the Houston braintrust knows something I don't about Justin Reed, this deal doesn't do much for the Rockets. Grade for Rockets: C-.

 On talent, I think the TWolves came out ahead on this one. Howard may be older than Mike James, but at 6'10'' hes a good shooter out to 18 feet and can pass the ball unusually well for a four, a skill underutilized by JVG (man am I making him look bad!). All in all, Juwan's a solid veteran role player.

But Minnesota's acquiring him just goes to show how little direction this franchise has. If, as rumored, they are planning on moving Kevin Garnett, why bring in a vet in a rebuilding project? If they plan on keeping KG, is Juwan Howard going to get them back in playoff contention? Probably not. It's early in the offseason, so this could just be an intermediary step in a bigger scheme. But with Kevin McHale at the helm, why should we believe 2007 will be any different from the last 9 years or so? Ever since the promising Garnett-Gugliotta-Marbury team died stillborn, he has made one desparate move after another to remain competitive, and other than the 2004 conference finalist team, it hasn't worked out. Still, for unloading the James contract for Howard's shorter deal, Minny fans can't be too disappointed. Celebrate the small victories, right? Grade for TWolves: C+

 

First, see the comment I made on the last post to get my last take (for now) on Bustomania 2007: The Detroit Pistons. I'ma try to move on now.

The finals. So I picked Cleveland to win, because I think they match up well with the Spurs, as long as they aren't too happy just to be in the finals. So what happens? They go and get intimidated by the bright lights and lose in a game that wasn't really ever competitive.

I could go on about Mike Brown's strategic ineptitude for a while (So it was a good idea to have Bron bring the ball up, even though you won in Detroit by playing him off the ball? What about leaving the only guy shooting the ball well on the bench for most of the game?),  but fear of the moment was what made the Cavs miss open looks and get outrebounded more than anything the Spurs were doing. And then there was King James. 14 points and 6 turnovers won't get it done.

The good news for Cavs fans is that the team probably won't play as bad in game 2. And the Spurs? They did what they were supposed to do. Timmy played well, but wasn't as dominant offensively as he'll need to be when (if?) Cleveland shows up for this series. That's to be expected though, when Parker can get 20+ on mostly layups. Maybe the Cavs will make him shoot a jumper next time around. Or something. Just an idea.

The Cavs played badly, but this was the one game they could afford to use to get their finals sea legs. Game 2, though, now becomes a must-win for Cleveland, thanks to the 2-3-2 format that stacks the odds so strongly against the underdog. If the Cavs lose game 2, they would have to sweep their three home games to win the series. Last time that happened? Oh yeah, Pistons '04. So much for moving on.

 

Did the Pistons really lose that series?

My denial aside, I did want to address all of the noise floating around about breaking up the Pistons. If you're paying attention, you'll see that most of this is coming from longtime haters, who've never appreciated Detroit's blue collar style, and would love to see half-court basketball and real defense abolished from the NBA. Puh-leeze.  

The fact remains that the core of this team is all in its prime, with playoff experience only the Spurs can match. Rip, Chauncey, Tay and 'Sheed are also the rare players who compete on both sides of the ball, as is Antonio McDyess. Forget the critics: this team is not showing any physical signs of decline, and can compete at a high level for at least another two years before Chauncey and 'Sheed start to get old. As bad as their loss was (and believe me, I feel it), people forget that it was in the conference finals, not like the early round flameouts that spelled the end for the Jazz and Kings a few years back. 

But at the same time, you can't ignore the problems the team has. Namely, they still don't get enough from their bench, and they need another impact big man to fill the hole left by Ben Wallace. Letting Big Ben walk was the second biggest mistake, after Darko, Joe Dumars has made in his GM career. Not so much because of his hard-line negotiating, because Chicago's contract offer was ridiculous and will handicap that franchise in the future, but because Joe D had already committed to resigning Ben at any price when he gave away Darko to free up cap space.  The Pistons then could not afford to let Ben walk, because they didn't have the cap space to sign a replacement and Darko was the only trade chip the team had to bring in somebody else without breaking up the core. In that context, would giving Ben, say, $14 million a year have been so bad?

Now, having not filled the void one year later, the Pistons will need some luck to rebalance their roster, which will be tough in the draft or in free agency. As for the existing roster, there isn't a whole lot of hope either. Though he has yet to develop a single offensive skill, Jason Maxiell looks ready to step in and be a regular - the Pistons' best defensive lineup was him with the '04 leftover crew. The same can't be said about Carlos Delfino, who mostly plays scared. Amir Johnson's been said to be a beast in the D-League, but is basically a rookie when it comes to playing in the L.

One thing that can be changed from within though is the man on the hot seat, Flip Saunders. Flip does some things well, especially on the offensive end. The problem is, he's still learning how to win in the playoffs. Will the Pistons still be able to contend when he eventually figures it out? As much as I don't like knee-jerk coaching changes, the clock is ticking on this group. Unfortunately, the guy I thought would best suit this crew was Rick Adelman, because of his offensive creativity. But of who's still out there, I would take a look at Paul Silas, who won rings as a player, and didn't do too badly with the Hornets or the Cavs. Or maybe Mike Fratello, who's abrasive but seemed to get the most out of his teams.

With the latest reports saying that Flip is safe for next season, it looks like the brass in Detroit is choosing to ignore the last two seasons. And the half-hearted endorsements of the Piston players when asked about Flip's performance. While I can't say there's no chance of it playing out differently, I won't be surprised if I write this column again next June.

Wow. I still can't believe they lost. Because I was on the road (believe it or not, I'm not parked by the comp all day), I missed game 6, but I can't imagine it being too different from the running themes of this series:

-Billups being lost at sea; that's two seasons where your no-show has killed the team, Chauncey. I honestly don't know what to make of this guy, who once upon a time was one of the true assassins of the league. He showed flashes of that in game 5, but in every other game, you were more likely to see an errant pass or a bad shot than a "big shot" from this mister. More like big BLEEP!

And yet, the Pistons can't afford for him to just walk in the offseason. I don't know where they go with this guy.

-Flip's follies; aside from Billups, did anyone else look more lost out there than Flop Saunders? How do you let someone score almost 30 pts in a row against you? Without taking repeated hard fouls or trapping at the free throw line? And how do you forget about your leading scorer at crunch time (Rip did not see the ball enough)? I think dem Wallace boys are right - Flip looked in over his head throughout this series. And against Mike Brown, that's hard to do.

-Anyone seen Tayshaun Prince? - I love the guy, but his performance this series was pathetic, perfectly symbolized by his running for cover while Lebron was busy dunking away game 5 and the series. Outmuscled, outquicked, and outwilled , it looked like he lost the fight in him as the games progressed. It's imperative that he find it before next year starts, because of all labels, none is as damning as "soft."

And its that last part that really bothers me about how the eastern conference finals went down. Detroit's calling card during their five year run has been their toughness and ability to step up in the clutch. But in game 5 (and probably game 6 too - how do you lose an elimination game by 20 points? I thought that was a Laker thing.), they did not show any guts. They got out of the way whenever Lebron came down the lane, hung Tayshaun, Rip, or whoever was guarding Lebron out to dry by alowing 'Bron to go one-on-one, and put up contested jumpers (or turning it over) when they should have been moving the basketball. Championship calibur teams don't allow uncontested layups and dunks to beat them at crunch time.

But the Pistons couldn't muster the courage to send Lebron to the line, where he's shaky at best, while he was emasculating and humiliating them. Maybe this is where Ben Wallace would have stepped in to stop the bleeding. Who knows. But the only fight I saw in that team was Rasheed going after the refs, blaming others for his failure to take a shot better than an 18-foot fadeaway.

Give Cleveland credit - they played up to their potential, and Lebron was beyond amazing. And yes, the officiating was atrocious - how many phantom fouls were called when Lebron decided to fall down? But this series was more about the superior team giving in to a less experienced, less talented one. And I never thought I'd see a Detroit team lose like that.

Man, call me ketchup, 'cuz that's all I've been doing on this blog it seems. For starters, I want to do a quick wrap-up of the conference semis.

Cavs-Nets

As a lukewarm Nets fan, I wasn't happy with how the Nets went out in this series. JKidd fought 'till the bitter end, but RJ and especially Vince didn't give their team enough down the stretch of game 6, much as they didn't throughout this series. Too many jumpers, not enough drives. And for the love of god, why did Lawrence Frank put the ball in Vince's hands at crunch time instead of his hall-of-fame point guard? Vince consistently made bad decisions late in games, from turnovers (see game 4) to contested jumpers with the game on the line. A total head-scratcher.

With that said, I don't know where the Nets go from here. I don't see the return of KRStic-one making a huge impact, since they were mediocre even when they had him at the beginning of the season. This year's rookies were promising, but will they make the jump to becoming solid rotation players next year? Hard to say. Unless Nenad comes back as a Divac or Sabonis-type, it may be time to blow it up and start over. But if that happens, here's hoping that Rod Thorn has the good sense not to do Jason Kidd like the indians did Manhattan. I'm saying, if he gives up maybe the best Net of all-time (probably second best, Dr. J was SIIIICK back in the day) for some beads and jewelry (aka Andrew Bynum, who just might be the reincarnation of Benoit Benjamin), who knows when the franchise will recover. Not a huge concern, given Rod's track record as one of the very best GMs out there (what is it with those WVa boys?). But this year's trade deadline rumors should be very troublesome to Nets fans.

Jazz-Warriors

Damn, I screwed this one up. Fact is, I badly underestimated a) the effects that fatigue would have on a team whose success was in large part based on bouncing around the court at twice the speed of its opponents and b) the increased importance of depth in the NBA playoffs. Depth has always been big in the modern (4-round) NBA playoffs, but the move to seven games in the first round has meant that depth (or lack thereof) becomes a factor earlier than ever before. I covered both of these topics in earlier posts, so I won't say any more. Consider the guru schooled.

I can't leave the discussion of the Warriors, though, without sharing this email from my buddy Vic, a longtime (and long-suffering) fan of the bay area's finest. Without further ado, a brief history of the team post-Run TMC:

"- Mitch Richmond is traded for Billy Owens - a perennial all-star for yet another underachieving Syracuse boy

- Chris Webber and Nellie feud. Cohan chooses the coach. Webber leaves. Nellie loses the team - Nellie leaves. So they lose both.

- Webber is traded for Gugliotta who promptly get booed for not being Webber. He later gets traded for Donyell Marshall.

- Tim Hardaway and Sprewell feud, and Timmy gets traded for Bimbo freaking Coles. [eds. note - don't forget methuselah..I mean, Kevin Willis, a spry 33 at the time. They lost Willis that summer to free agency.]

- Mullin get a thumb injury and never really recovers - he got old fast

- Warriors luck out and get the no.1 pick in the draft, they take Joe Smith - not too bad, except he hated being a PF.

- As one of the doormats of the league, the warriors draft Todd Fuller - citing his upstanding character and incredibly high GPA - the guy is a stiff. Most Warriors fans didn't want him.

- Again, a year later, Warriors get a decent draft pick and go for Adonal Foyle. Fans are screaming for T-mac who was drafted right after. Again, management loves Foyle, citing his upstanding character and great intelligence.

- somewhere in between, Sprewell chokes his coach, and they trade him for Chris Mills, [John] Starks and Terry Cummings.

- Warriors get Antawn Jamison - not too bad of a pick I suppose

- Warriors have a good draft and net Arenas, JRich and Murphy - Arenas becomes a bonafide stud

- Warriors lose Arenas because of some obscure loophole

- Warriors BLEEP again, but since they have the worst record in the league, they have a really really good chance and landing one of the top two slots in the draft - Yao or JWill is theirs. They get unlucky and draft third. Chris Mullin convinces Dunleavy to declare for the draft

- Warriors draft Dunleavy - Brian Cardinal promptly takes his starting spot.

- Dunleavy BLEEPs

- Mullin trades tawn for Nick Van Exel as a salary dump. This later becomes Baron -> Good trade.

- Mullin signs Foyle, Fisher, Dunleavy, and Murphy to massive contracts - horrible horrible decisions. Fans and media alike were screaming for Mullin's head after these signings.

To Mullin's credit he dumped three of those chumps. Too bad he didn't do it with Foyle a couple of years ago when the league gave them a one time opportunity to drop a contract.

Best part is - when traded, Dunleavy and Murphy talked about how great it was to finally be on a playoff team and playing in front of fans who "Actually know basketball." Media lauds the Pacers, saying they got two high "IQ" players. Media apparently doesn't watch basketball. Post trade, Pacers immediately plummet from 5-6th seed to out of the playoffs. Warriors surge.

The thing that gets me the most. Basketball is only really 5-8 players. And out of those just 1 or 2 impact players is all you really need to be competitive. It's not football or baseball, where you have to assemble a larger team. It's hard to miss the playoffs for 13 yrs straight."

Almost makes you shed a tear, don't it? And this doesn't even include the Erick Dampier affair, or the Jamison-Vince Carter swap.

This leaves the Warriors at a crucial juncture, where they must decide whether or not to build on the existing team, or accept the playoff run as a fluke. I strongly lean towards the former, but that'll have to be a topic for another day.

Until next time, when I get over losing a damned post again.

The conference semis are winding down, and there ain't much to talk about. Especially since I'm trying to get caught up in the games (I've watched only the endings of games 5-6 of Detroit-Chicago and game 5 of Phoenix-San Antonio, and missed game 5 of Cleveland-New Jersey.) You know how I do though, I'll stir something up anyway.

So Detroit finally closed out Chicago in six. The Pistons have difficulty dealing with success, as we saw in game 4 and game 5 (so I'm told). The other vets have been getting more press, but how 'bout my guy Tayshaun Prince in game 5? I've watched Tay since his college days, and its good to see him finally assert himself like he did at the end of game 5, abusing Luol Deng on the block repeatedly with that lefty hook. Did you see him get in Rasheed's grill after the T? That's some leadership for a guy with a rep as being soft-spoken. Good for him. Now, let's see more of the same in the next round against King James.

As for da Bulls, their reliance on jumpers finally did them in down the stretch of game 6. You've got to respect these guys, but they get the broken record treatment: GET SOMEBODY WHO CAN SCORE IN THE  PAINT! A more experienced hand on the perimeter might not hurt either; the Bulls had 5 turnovers in the fourth quarter, including some devastating ones down the stretch when the Detroit offense was stalling out. Props must be given out again to Deng though. He was up to the challenge the entire series, playing aggressively on the glass, finishing with strength, and hitting his midrange jumpers. I still don't see him as a franchise player, but he can be a key cog on a championship team.

The same cannot be said with certainty about the Bull guards, however. Granted, Gordon and Hinrich drew an extremely tough matchup, going against in Billups and Hamilton the toughest and most playoff-tested backcourt in the L. But 39% isn't going to get it done, regardless of who you're playing against. Chalk it up to a learning experience, but it will be interesting to see how these young guys respond in the future to this grade A BLEEP-whupping.

This is really a double-shot of Guruisms. First, hitting clean-up for my second round slate:

Suns-Spurs:  Before the series, I picked the Spurs in five. Although on paper, the Phoenix has matchup advantages with Shawn Marion and Steve Nash over Tony Parker, I couldn't shake the memory of what happened in the regular season and in 2005. The Spurs just have the perfect gameplan to counter what Phoenix does. The Spurs have the best transition defense in the league, and limit their turnovers, so Phoenix has a hard time getting out on the break against them. The Spurs are also supremely patient and disciplined on offense, meaning they don't rush shots, and they dictate tempo probably as well as anyone else in the league.

On top of all that, in 2005 they used Bruce Bowen on the Matrix, taking away all of his easy baskets and offensive boards, and basically reduced Phoenix's attack to Amare Stoudemire going one-on-one against one of the toughest half-court defenses in the NBA. The only difference I saw between this year and 2005 was that the Spurs are not quite as tough on the inside as they were two years ago. (Mohammed was huge on the glass in those playoffs, and Rasho, for all his flaws, was a 7-footer guy opposing teams had to watch out for in the lane. Nowadays, Oberto and Elson give the Spurs nothing in terms of inside presence. That's why the Spurs play more small-ball now than ever before.)

And then there was game 4. Wow. The Suns contradicted all conventional thinking, not to mention their own prior history, by pulling out this game. Check it out:

The Suns play no defense: The boys in orange pulled out some huge stops at the end of this game. Going from single coverage to aggressively trapping Duncan, which Phoenix didn't start doing until crunch time, resulted in turnovers, and completely disrupted the Spur offense. This was brilliant coaching by D'Antoni & Co., and why it so completely baffled the veteran Spurs is beyond me. San Antonio's perimeter guys looked more Lost than the tv show, dribbling out the clock and hoisting rushed shot after shot. I definitely took me back to the days when the Spurs were considered too soft to beat the Lakers. That said, don't think the Suns have stumbled on some defensive kryptonite to use against SA. I don't think the same tactic will be nearly as effective next time around.

The Suns don't rebound: Down the stretch, they more than held their own on the glass, exploiting the biggest weakness in the Spurs' game. The Spurs don't need to dominate the glass to win this series, but in the past their ability to do so helped them control tempo and keep Phoenix's offense under wraps. They cannot get dominated like they did last night if they want to win the series. Even if they pull it out against Phoenix (which I think they will, even before we find out that Amare and Diaw are suspended), the Spurs' weakness on the glass will be their eventual downfall. (hint...hint...hint)

All in all a great game, Phoenix really showed me something last night. Now do it again two more times. Then I'll be really impressed.

By the way, why isn't Popovic using Bowen against Marion like he did in '05??? Was it working too well? TP has shown that he can cover Steve Nash, so I have a hard time understanding this move. Then again, I have a hard time understanding many of Pop's "strategic" moves. Take, for instance, the 2001 series against Lakers, where leaving Fisher open (allowing him to average over 20ppg in a sweep) was the move du jour. Or the 2006 series against the Kings, where the counter to Ron Artest's bullying was taking Ginobili completely out of the offense until midway through the series (after the Kings built up a lead, and might have won had Bonzi and Artest not gotten hurt).  Or how 'bout this series, where you let Phoenix get away with Steve Nash on Mike Finley for stretches, even though Finley's a former all-star who likes to post up. Maybe someday I'll learn enough about the game to understand...

Under the Radar Stuff

One of the reasons I started writing this thing is that I think the people writing about the NBA in the major outlets (all two of them) miss a lot of important things. Here are two stories I think are so under the radar, the military would classify them as stealth technology.

Fatigue and the Warriors:

This has been mentioned, but I don't think people appreciate how the fact that JRich, Stephen Jack, Matt Barnes, and especially Boom Dizzle are all running on E is torpedoing the Warriors' postseason efforts. Fatigue makes b!@#$ of us all. This shows up worst on defense, where Golden State is just not rotating or getting back nearly as well as they did against Dallas. In game 4, it started showing up on offense as well, with increased settling for jumpers, most of which were being front-rimmed. Throw in a mellower-than-usual home crowd (c'mon bay area, you gotta represent! I don't care how much the tickets are!), and you have the story of game 4. Unfortunately, I don't see a magic cure for game 5 tonight in the works. The core guys of this gutty Golden State team will have to find their second wind, because I don't see their young bench guys (Ellis, Pietrus, Biedrins) working any miracles on the road. That said, Utah is still an inexperienced playoff team, and Warrior fans can still hope that they get too comfortable with their 3-1 lead. But don't bet on it.

Flopping - it's Fann-tastic!

In the wake of Suns-Spurs, we're hearing lots of complaints about flopping in the playoffs. I'm with Bill Walton on this one (one of the few times you'll hear me say that),  and think that flopping is an abuse of the rules. But it's interesting to think what the cause of this new trend is, because while flopping isn't new (is it, Reggie Miller fans?), it has greatly picked up in the last couple of seasons. There are many factors, but the biggest one seems to be that refs are much more willing to blow the whistle at any contact that occurs on a play, not just contact that gives a player an advantage (historically, what a "foul" is).

Who do we have to blame for this development? THE "FANS." Let me be more specific: the highly vocal "fans" of the game, who thought the physical basketball of the '90's BLEEPed, and praise the Phoenix Suns as the messiahs of "good" basketball. These "fans," and their mouthpieces in the media, are arrogant pricks who think college basketball is better than the NBA, and at their core dislike the NBA for a littany of reasons, usually related to being too "playground," and worse, too "black." If you can't tell, I like these people.

Sadly, these people apparently have a lot of pull up in the League office. Why else would the Commish, generally a smart guy, be so hell bent on eliminating contact in the sport? The league has been pressuring refs to crack down on contact, both on the perimeter and around the basket, and this is naturally causing refs to be more trigger-happy. Developments like the circle under the basket (which I'm not necessarily against), which seemingly necessitates a call every time somebody falls down, only increase this pressure. As a ref, doesn't it make sense at this point to make a call every time somebody gets bump, since it's in line with league policy? At this point, doesn't it make sense for a player to exaggerate contact every chance you get, because the odds are in favor of the call going your way?

The only cure for this problem that I see is for refs to refocus on what constitutes a foul, which comes back to how hard the contact has to be for there to be an advantage. In cases where the contact isn't clearly enough to disrupt the play, the refs should BLEEP their whistles and let the play continue. More non-calls like this will cause players and coaches to realize that its in their interest to keep playing after enough turnovers/easy scores are caused by flop-attempts (boy I'd like to see that statistic - Ginobili could average a double-double!).

So basketball "fans" around the country, this column's for you. Give yourselves a pat on the back every time you see a 6'10'' guy falling into the basket support when hit by a 6'1'' guy. You earned it.

 

 

 

 

The Western conference, graveyard of predictions. We'll see how the Guru can keep pace this round.

Jazz-Warriors

Man, this is a tough series to predict. On the one side, my brain tells me that Utah is going to be chowing on glass for breakfast, lunch and dinner, and Carlos Boozer will punish the Warriors for going small, either with his own scoring or by kicking it out for open shots (Utah moves the ball much better than Dallas, who relied heavily on isolation plays and screen/rolls for their offense). And with their disciplined halfcourt game, they should keep the turnovers down, and limit Golden State's transition game.

But my gut disagrees. The gut says that Baron will outplay Deron Williams at both ends (though this didn't happen in game 1; Baron's trick hammy limited him badly on D, and he got torched to the tune of 30 and 8). The gut also says that Monta Ellis and Al Harrington can't play as badly as they did in round one, and Monta in particular should cause matchup problems. Finally, the gut says the Warriors will shred Utah's porous D (do any of Utah's starters play D besides Kirilenko?), which comes into the series overhyped because of Houston's one-dimentional offense, and get into the paint even more easily than they did against Dallas.

So what's the call? I give this round to the gut. Warriors in six. But Golden State cannot give 30 to Deron Williams for this to happen, the defense has to pick back up. Hopefully, starting tonight Nellie will give Monta Ellis some more burn. The kid's looked mostly lost in the playoffs, but he can at least be used on D to slow down DWilliams because none of Utah's guards can take advantage of Baron's gimpiness.  Boozer is a big man's big man, and other than a total lack of defense, and the fact that he has a problem scoring on defenders with length (and any semblance of mobility, sorry Yao), he has few weaknesses. But if Biedrins can stay out of foul trouble, he could help slow down the Booz cruise. I'd be surprised to see that in Salt Lake City, but in the comfy confines of Oracle Arena, AB should make a difference.

And now for game 2 predictions. Utah made a mistake in game 1 by trying to play the Warrior's pace. That's not their game, and it led to 20 turnovers. The question is, are the Jazz disciplined enough to slow the pace down? I don't think so, but if any coach can do it, Jerry Sloan can. By my own prediction, I said the Warriors are either taking game 2 or game 5, and I think tonight's game will be the one. Either way, expect one hell oBLEEPame and a "barn-burner" of a series (I see you Chuck!).

 

Ok, so I had this nice series of blog posts I was going to make laying out the entire playoffs from the first round onward. But then life decided to get in the way, and that got scrapped. Now I will boldly march on, even sans readers, to get the noise about the NBA playoffs out of my head onto some digital paper.

But first, a brief summary of what I was gonna say:

Eastern Conference finals: Pistons over the Cavs in five. Against the Pistons suffocating defense, the Cavs will wilt like Chamberlain. The Cavs can't do much to slow down Dee-troit either, so this one could get ugly. I'd predict a sweep if Detroit could stay focused again for four straight games. That might not be a stretch, seeing how they've come out in their first six playoff games.

Western conference round one:

Mavs-Warriors: I picked GS in six, believe it or not. I can't get over the transformation of this team. Who'da thunk Baron getting healthy would lead this team to become a bunch of pit bulls on D and lead to the crispiest ball movement this side of, well, anywhere? Chalk up a big assist to the softness of Dallas. They need a leadership transplant, particularly in the form of a take-charge guard, in the mold of Steve Nash. Wait a sec...

Rockets-Jazz: Against my better judgement, I picked the Rockets in seven. Logic told me that the Jazz's frontcourt athleticism would give them the upper hand on the glass, and that Houston's anemic offense would give out on them at the worst possible time. I rationalized picking the Rox at the time though because (a) Kirilenko, the only Jazz starter who plays any semblance of D (maybe except for my arch-nemesis Derek Fisher), was battling injury problems and (b) I thought TMac would deliver a transcendental performance (a la the Spurs miracle and the Mavs series a few years back), and take H-Town to the promised land. But when AK-47 found his game in Utah, I knew H-town was in trouble.

As for McGrady, it seemed his focus wavered throughout the series, as we saw in the second half of game 7. Very troubling, for a guy I always thought of as like Kobe, if Kobe played team basketball 24/7. As much as I hate to admit, being a JVG fan from his Knick days, I think this team could use a coaching change. I'm not sure his style fits these players, and the mental execution breakdowns this team always had in the fourth quarter have to at least partially fall on him.

Suns-Lakers: Money. I had the Suns in five. The Lakes were just too much of a mess to put up much fight in this series. Especially since the presence of Amare negated their big edge last season on the inside. Big ups to Lamar Odom, though, dude was a soldier, playing through an Iverson-esque slew of injuries to post big numbers. Fact is, I don't think he's comfortable being a sidekick, and the beginning of the year seemed to show that the Laker offense runs better when going through him instead of Kobe. I really hope he'll get his own team to lead in the off-season (Golden State, I'm talking to you!), so we can see his talent shine some more. There isn't anything this guy can't do.

Spurs-Nuggets: My lone prediction blemish (no I don't count the Jazz-Rockets series; I knew that if Utah's team was in tact, the Rockets were out). I actually believed Denver would pull this out in six. Looking at the Nuggets deep, talented corps of bigs, I thought they would be able to control the glass and play just enough D to pull it out. So what happened? San Antonio was steady and Denver wasn't. After game 1, Melo and AI stopped moving the ball on offense, and, probably not coincidentally, everybody on Denver stopped playing D (with the exception of Marcus Camby). 

On a side note, I'm not down with all the hating on Mr. DPOY. I'm not saying his pick and roll defense is all that, but if he should apologize for his teammates being so bad on D that he gets all those blocks and boards, then Bill Russell, and every other great shotblocking big man, should do the same. My point is, the value of his shotblocking is that everybody on the other team has to be thinking about Camby when they come down the lane, and you could see that even in the Spurs series, after he sent Mr. Eva Longoria and Ginobili packing shot after shot.

Anyway, the series showed that the Nuggs have a way to go before becoming legit contenders.  For all their press clippings, Melo and AI must involve their teammates, especially Nene (blossoming at both ends now, and making Kenyon Martin completely expendable), for this team to really run with the San Antonios and the Dallases ( hahahaha) of the Western conference.

Damn, I got a problem with verbosity. I'll have to save my spiel about the conference semis for next time.

Now playing: my wrapup of prediction for the Eastern conference bracket.

I wanted to first respond to the ravenous Bulls fans, who like to think that their manhandling the defending champs will translate into guaranteed victory: 2007 Heat =/= 2006 Heat. The 2006 Heat had a healthy DWade, and Antoine Walker was finally rolling as the third scorer/playmaker on the team. On the real though, Chicago should have beaten Miami last year. Deng didn't show up for that series and was completely outplayed by Walker, which made his breakout peformance this year all the more shocking.

I'm kinda surprised all those Bulls fans didn't bring up what Detroit should really be worried about: Nocioni's outside shooting. Noce still doesn't quite look like himself after coming back from his injuries, and we'll find out just how well he's doing come Saturday. But if he's hot, he either pulls one of Detroit's bigs away from the basket, opening up the paint for the other guys, or forces the Pistons to go small. I'm not saying he can win the series, but it would make things more interesting. I still say Pistons in six.

Cavs-Nets

Contrary to popular belief, I think this'll be a good series. On paper, the Cavs have way more talent than the Nets, who play Vince, RJ, Kidd, and Jay-Z's Roc-A-Fella crew. But between the experience of those Jersey guys and the screwiness of the Cavs roster, this will be a close series. I pick the Cavs in seven.

The trouble with the Cavs roster is that it's like they assembled two different teams, and Ferry & Co. can't decide which way to go. On one side, you have your halfcourt guys - Ziggy Ilgauskas, Drew Gooden, Eric Snow, and Donyell Marshall. On the other you have your uptempo crew - Larry Hughes, Sideshow Bob Varejao, and Pavlovic. Unfortunately, the halfcourt guys can't play fast and the uptempo guys can't really play slow. In between, you have King James, who is good enough to play both styles, but in an uptempo scheme would be the scariest thing the league's seen this side of Dr. J. Who else can you say with 100% certainty that some crazy #@% is going down whenever they get the ball in the open court?

(Here's where I'm going to talk about why LeBron is the MVP of the NBA. This deserves its own column, but I don't have the time or interest to do that right now. So I'll sum it up: look at the team he's working with. If you took out LeBron and put in a decent player, like say a Luke Walton, the guys I mentioned above would struggle to win 30 games. You're looking at Memphis east, folks. Take Nash from the Suns, replace him with a Ray Felton. You still have Barbosa, Stoudemire, Marion, Diaw, Bell and Kurt Thomas. By my count, that's two unstoppable offensive players, another top-25 player in the league, a 6'-9'' playmaking forward, a defensive specialist who can stroke the long ball, and a solid backup big man. Are you telling me that team wouldn't win 40-45 games? As for Dirk? Short answer, see the Mavs-Warriors playoff series. Kobe's the only other guy who has a legit case against Lebron. I pick LeBron because:

a) Kobe's got more help. Lamar Odom is waaaay better than any other player the Cavs have, and if you take him from the Lakers and Larry Hughes from the Cavs, the remaining guys are close, with only a slight edge in the Cavs favor.

and

b) The Lakes may have had more injuries, but they won about ten less games than the Cavs, so I call that a wash.)

All that said, the Cavs have bigs and the Nets really don't, unless you count too-young Josh Boone, too-old Cliff Robinson, and Freeway, who just isn't tall enough. Mikki Moore has a great story, and is actually pretty solid, but the Cavs are one of the best rebounding teams in the league and should feast on the boards at both ends. Defensively, the Nets are the better team though, and JKidd and Vince should be able to get into the paint and cause problems for Cleveland. (On that point, can someone tell my why coach Mike Brown has tried to make the Cavs a defensive, walk-it-up team, when NONE of his starters plays any defense and half of his guys can't score in the halfcourt? Anybody?) As tough defensively as the Nets can be, I don't see them being able to contain LeBron in a Pistons-like fashion.

Also, watch for at least one game turning on the edge in experience and poise held by the Nets. It may come in the form of missed FTs by LeBron, it may come in a key rebound or defensive play made by Jason Kidd, but know that it's coming. The problem is, I don't see there being enough tight games, especially in Cleveland, for the Nets to pull out the series.

This brings us to a Pistons-Cavs, this time in the conference finals. If you've been following the blog, then you know where this is heading. It's just a question of how many games.

Wow. Three posts in and I've already caused a mini-firestorm up in here. Or I hit a raw nerve with Bulls and Suns fans. Either way, very cool stuff.

Raps-Nets

Another series I haven't been able to follow closely. I blame the following factors, in no particular order: a) the Pacific time zone b) the schedule programmers for the playoffs, for putting all the games on NBATV and having them at the same time as other, better series' games. Seriously, didn't they do this to the Nets in the first year last year too? Is it so wrong to want to see the best PG of this generation without missing other games?

Anyway, I thought the Nets would come out on top in this series, mainly because the Raps don't play a lick of defense and aren't a good enough rebounding team to capitalize on the Nets' donut roster (nothing in the middle). I did catch game 4. in time to see the Nets blow Toronto out of the water. Kidd and Carter were getting in the lane pretty much at will, and Chris Bosh was settling for too many jumpers. I really like Bosh's game, and he already shows more leadership than the guy he's most often compared to, KG. But in this series, and in general, he needs to get inside and mix things up more. He's got a great hook, shows flashes of great post up moves on the regular, and it would be a shame for him to fall in the tradition of big guys who jump-shot themselves straight into a "soft" label a la CWebb.

With all that said, I think Toronto's going to win tonight. New Jersey's playing well, but which Vince Carter is going to show up? The deer-in-the-headlights version of games 1 and 2? Or the dominator that owned his former team in the Meadowlands? I'm betting probably somewhere in between, leaning towards the former. I've always admired his dunks (he's the best I've ever seen), but Vince seems to lack the killer instinct of his elite wing peers (namely Kobe, TMac, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen). Thats why I thought the deal bringing him to Jersey would work so well, because JKidd's leadership could overshadow Vince's shortcomings and let him just play loose. 

But things haven't really taken off for the Nets like I thought they would. Before the season, I thought this was the year we'd see New Jersey bounce back to its title-contending ways in the East, even picking them to represent in the finals. Instead, we got an ugly, out of sync mess. And that was before KRS(tic)-One was out for the season. Granted, RJ was dealing with some injury issues, but that's no excuse for them to open the season 11-18. We'll see if they can pull it together in the playoffs, but I'm not optimistic.

The Nets will pull it together enough to win this series though, and I see them clinching it in game 6. That means Cleveland-New Jersey in the second round, which is just a bad matchup for the Nets. More on that next time.

And I haven't forgotten about my MVP manifesto. Suns fans, who didn't seem to enjoy my "pretty-boy" crack yesterday, are going to love it.

Just when I thought I was talking to myself here, I get my first reader comment. (sniffs) Ahh, the sweet smell of success. Moving on,

Cavs-Wizards

I admit, I've only watched game 1 of this series. Talk about blah. The Cavs, hardly one of the NBA's elite teams, cruised through that game in regular season mode, and just made enough plays in the fourth quarter to win. From what I've heard, it's been this way all series. Since the games themselves have been unremarkable, time to bring out another axe to grind...

The Cavs-Wiz series is the posterchild for why the NBA season is too long. By extending the playoff to a 4 best-of-seven series format, the NBA has effectively made the cliche'd "second season" a reality. Throw in the nation team off-season commitment, and the league is physically demanding more from players, especially the stars, than ever before. What are the results of this?

-INJURIES. Fatigue makes ^#$^$#^es of us all. Based on my limited athletic experience, and from what I've seen and heard, fatigue is one of the biggest causes of injuries in sports. When you play tired, you start taking short cuts, get out of position more, and this leads you to getting hurt. To varying degrees, I would bet the injuries to Dwyane Wade, Lamar Odom, and yes, Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler, were all caused by a combination of fatigue and compensation for other injuries.

-Regular season apathy. The last ten games of the season are throwaways for all teams not fighting to get into the playoffs. Why? Partly because the extra wear and tear on a good team's regulars is a greater risk than any marginal improvement in playoff position. Back in the day, when the playoffs rarely spanned more than 20 games for the finalists, teams didn't have to worry as much about resting their regulars because the playoffs were just icing on top of the long regular season. Also, from the players' standpoint, what's the best way to avoid getting too tired to make it through the playoffs? Hint: ask Tim Duncan (see:his first few months of the season), Shaq (see: roughly the last dozen years of his career, minus his first two championship seasons), and the Detroit Pistons (two of the last three regular seasons for the whole rotation, except maybe for Tayshaun Prince; I can never tell the difference between when he's not playing hard and when he's just in passive mode).

Why should the NBA care? After all, the reason they'll never shorten the season, since 10 extra games of even diminished revenue (from meaningless end-of-season games) is better than nothing. 

The best reason is because the fans lose out in the current system. Last year's Cavs-Wiz series was great, because we got to see LeBron and Gilbert Arenas go head to head for six gut-wrenching games. Between the DVR and my sneaking out of work early, I didn't miss a game of the series. This year, we're stuck with LeBron against...Deshaun Stevenson. Not quite "must-see-TV." And if the Guru's not feeling it, what is the casual fan thinking? Is there a record for lamest crowd in a playoff game? I have to hand it to the fans in Cleveland, even with with the Washington Generals as their opponents, they represented better than Laker and Heat fans have in past years. They at least knew when the game was starting.

But I digress. Back to my point, if fans get a steady diet of sabotaged playoff series' and half-hearted regular season games, then they start to lose faith in the product. This is the exact kind of intangible loss in revenue that the league can conveniently ignore unfortunately.

I could go on, but I was supposed to talk about Wiz-Cavs. Well, even though the Cavs aren't very good, they've gotten to 3-0. I'll go out on a limb and say they end it tonight with the clean sweep.

Oh yeah, I mentioned MVP also. That's LeBron James. Not particularly close even. I'll have to pick up there next time.