Explaining The Rangers' Moves, Playing Russian Roulette For A Fifth Starter, And What To Do With Gerald Laird.
The Rangers Report – Offseason Edition
Rangers’ Moves Make Some Sense When You Look At It
Despite it being a rather quiet off-season for the Rangers, without the signings of some of the sexier names that were available on the free agent market, many of the moves that the Rangers did do are designed to allow for some of the youngsters in the minors some additional time to develop.
Many of the moves correlate to several of the Rangers’ rookies in the minors, designed to delay them for at least another half a season. Let’s check it out:
Alex Rodriguez Opts Out Of 10, Year, $252 Million Deal – A+. This was possible the best deal that the Rangers had happen to them this off-season, as the Rangers now have $21.3 Million to spend on THEIR OWN players. If this deal had been it, the Rangers may have had arguably the best off-seasons based on this alone. What this deal also does for the Rangers is to allow them to toss in a bit more coin on the draft, allowing them to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox for more lower round gems, as well as allowing them to attack the International Signing Period more vigously.
Sign RHP Joaquin Benoit To 2 Years, $6 million – A. To add another cherry on top, the Rangers also extended the ace of their bullpen to an extension, buying out his final year of arbitration and his first year of free agency. Benoit will now be competing for the role of closer next season. Suffice to say, this is good news, as Benoit could have gotten a lot more coin out on the open market.
Sign RHP Warner Madrigal To A Major League Contract – A. This makes the list simply because of the fact that the Rangers in essence get a prospect for free, without giving up anything. This was more thanks to the Angels’ screwing up than Texas monitoring the situation, but nonetheless, they get a relief prospect that throws hard and could be a potential closer. All in all, it’s a great way to add to the farm without giving anything other than a 40 Man spot. As for how he rates, think of a younger K-Rod.
Re-Signed UTIL Ramon Vasquez For 1 Year, $810,000 – D. Okay, Vasquez is a decent little utility man, but I think there were better options internally that could have been used, such as Tug Hulett, until German Duran is ready. Not loving this, really, but considering the salary and that he could be DFA’d with no trouble, ehh, whatever.
Trade CF Freddy Guzman To The Detroit Tigers For 1B Chris Shelton – B. Guzman wasn’t going to be with the Rangers for much longer anyway. While he is fast, his bat is rather anemic, making it hard to project him on the Rangers' as more of a fourth outfielder, pinch runner. As for Shelton, he's a valuable bench player that will see playing time as part of a platoon with Big Ben Broussard. More on how this helps in a minute...
Trade INF Tug Hulett to The Seattle Mariners For 1B Ben Broussard - A. Here's where the Shelton move comes in. For the price of a prospect that had no future here anyway, the Rangers get themselves a stopgap first baseman in the Bris Broulton combo that will now play at first. Broussard will take the majority of the at bats while Shleton spells him against lefties. This gives Texas roughly the equivalent of a major league first baseman. It also allows the Rangers to keep Chris Davis in the minors for another year, allowing him to benefit from coaching, at bats, and the opportunity to fine tune his skills until he gets the job next season.
Sign RF Milton Bradley For 1 year, $5 million - B. This one could blow up either way for the Rangers. Bradley could be a model citizen like Jurassic Carl was during his tenure with the Rangers or he could be a disaster and DFA'd soon after. However, Bradley is an elite bat that is now instantly the second best outfielder on the squad and will give the lineup a temporary boost.
Trade RHP Edinson Volquez and LHP Danny Ray Herrera To The Cincinnati Reds For CF Josh Hamilton - A-. For all the outcry of the Rangers trading pitching, this deal does make a lot of sense. Texas has no outfielders. On my top 40 Rangers prospects, only two prospects in the top 20 were outfielders, both of whom were acquired this year and both of whom are not anywhere near ready. Volquez, while he has talent, I'm beginning to think that he wasn't going to make it, long term, as his control was just too inconsistent. The Rangers jumped at the chance of adding a impact centerfielder and Hamilton also gives the Rangers a legitimate power presence that was lost when Mark Teixeira was traded. Plus, when Borbon is ready, the Rangers could then slide Hamilton to right field, where he'd be a solid fit.
All in all, that's my take on the Rangers' off-season activity. This Rangers' team is vastly improved from what the Rangers ended the year with, so with some luck, the Rangers will keep things respectable, but won't contend for the most part. However, with the kids arriving soon, the future does look like it will swing for the better.
However, Volquez's trade does leave the rotation short an arm. What to do about that?
Playing The Free Agent Russian Roulette For Starters…
Despite the Rangers publicly saying that they will likely fill in the hole in the rotation created by the Josh Hamilton trade, I do expect the Rangers to make a play for one of the free agent starters looking for a bounce back year due to injury. This is a good way to either waste money (which usually happens) or to cash in on a suddenly viable asset if a pitcher were to suddenly return to form (see Paul Byrd’s last stint with the Royals). This is also meant to give two prospects, Eric Hurley and Matt Harrison, more time to develop in the minors to ensure that they won’t get torched immediately once they get promoted. For the most part, the Rangers are doing their homework on the options available. Mark Prior was recently shot down by the Rangers after deeming his medicals a mess along with his refusal to take a club option with his deal. Kyle Lohse is also not going to be an option, especially when you consider just how inconsistent he was in the American League when he was in Minnesota and that his agent, Scott Boras, is going to hold out until teams get desperate and start to jump all over themselves for a pitcher. Lohse is a option I would not take if I was Tom Hicks, nor is it a contract I would want, when you consider, again, Harrison and Hurley’s near readiness for the majors. That means that the Rangers will be looking for a pitcher willing to take a one-year deal, likely with a club option if they can get it. This would also rule out starters like Livan Hernandez and Josh Fogg. With that in mind, here’s who is available:
Jason Jennings (RHP) – Pass. Jennings is going to get the most run because of his Baylor roots and because of his ability to pitch at hitters parks, as well as his age. However, Jennings really is a guy without any real out pitch who can eat innings and keep you in games. Basically, he’s the embodiment of a Number Three starter, not an ace. With that said, he’s probably better off staying in the National League and recently, his agent has made noise that Jennings will be at full strength by opening day and isn’t going to be willing to take a one-year deal, with lots of incentives.
Bartolo Colon (RHP) - Already Ruled Out. The Rangers have already ruled out Colon, who despite looking strong in winter ball so far, but apparently, not only are his medical reports a nightmare, he also wants a long term deal.
Freddy Garcia (RHP) – Strongly Consider, But Won’t Come To Texas. Garcia would be an option I would consider strongly. He has success pitching in the American League, as well as in a pitchers park, and is still reasonably in his prime as far as a starting pitcher could be considered. However, he likely wouldn’t be an option for the Rangers for two reasons: first off, he’s considering holding himself out of the market until June, allowing him to sell himself to the highest bidder, and second, there’s been a lot of smoke signals that he will likely end up with the Mets.
Kris Benson (RHP) – Strongly Consider. My crush on the wife with the big ta-ta’s aside, Benson would be what the Rangers would consider as far as a guy hoping to be brought in as a 4th/5th starter. He’s able to keep you in games, can flash a little more at times and may be willing to take a one-year deal in an attempt to build up his value. I’d be fine with him as a one year option in the back of the rotation.
Roger Clemens (RHP) – Pass. In spite of the Mitchell Allegations, Clemens may be willing to return for one more year, just to try and prove the doubters wrong in an attempt to prove that he’s clean. Hicks may choose to consider Clemens due to his Texas roots and because Clemens was still able to dominate in games last season. However, the negatives outside of the Mitchell investigation outweigh any benefits from Clemens. First off, he will undoubtedly want to come back on a shortened season, which does Texas no good whatsoever, and he broke down late last year, as his body began to break down. Finally, in spite of some dominating performances, Clemens for the most part looked average against American League lineups. While the Rangers wouldn’t be looking for an ace, Clemens’ agents would demand a paycheck worthy of the Clemens of old, not the Clemens of the present.
Jon Lieber (RHP) - Pass. Lieber should stick to the NL.
Josh Towers (RHP) - Strongley Consider. Towers' stats, on the surface, do match up a lot to Carlos Silva, who the Mariners paid a lot for. He's a groundball pitcher that won't walk a lot, nor strike out a lot, but he'd be a reasonable option as a fourth or fifth starter, provided that the defense keeps runs off the board. He'd be a smart signing.
Jamey Wright (RHP) – Last Choice. There is always the return of the Jamey Wright experience. Wright was tolerable as a starter for the most part and was excellent in relief. He’s still got good stuff and may be amendable to taking another one year deal from the Rangers. But at this point, you have to wonder if maybe it wouldn’t be better just leaving Kameron Loe back in the rotation and hoping it goes well.
Jeff Weaver (RHP) – Oh Hell No! This is really only here as a comparison to where the market is at. Weaver will get consideration because he’s a live body.
Mike Maroth (RHP) – Are You #### Kidding Me? Yes, the Rangers have looked at him for a possible minor league deal with a spring training invite. No, I don’t think it’s a good idea. The last thing the Rangers need is for a washed up vet like Maroth to take up space in the minors.
Gerald Laird’s Situation Getting A Little Ugly
Gerald Laird’s situation is starting to get a little…annoying actually.
Two months into the off-season, Laird is still a Ranger and the situation has the potential to get ugly. Laird has already made several comments about how he feels that the Rangers have never given him the opportunity to play full time and that it seems he has always had to fight for what he’s been able to get in the majors.
Laird could start for about ten teams and backup for another five if he were shopped, but the Rangers aren't able to find a buyer yet. There was a mention of Laird being traded for Coco Crisp, which made sense at the time, but Boston killed the deal by changing course and demanding Eric Hurley and Luis Mendoza in the deal as well.
Texas could flip him to the Yankees, but New York would demand the Rangers accept a lesser prospect in return, or worse, demand more in return for one of them lesser prospects, which would be a good way to just #### me off.
The Mets were rumored to be interested, but rejected a trade of Laird and Benoit for Lastings Milledge. They then traded Milledge for Brian Schneider's carcass and Ryan Church.
The Pirates would be an option, seeing as how they want Paulino out of the starting role, but what would the Pirates send back in return? Would it be an Xavier Nady deal, with the Pirates possibly accepting Robinson Tejeda in return?
I'll work out a more detailed list next week, as the Rangers not only need to move Laird, but need to make some decisions on other 40 Man Roster spots soon.
Draft Nugget I Missed
The Rangers have apparently scored well in Baseball America’s Draft Scores, with them receiving the second best grade of all,
Well apparently, the Rangers have signed Milton Bradley to a one year, $5 million contract, with some incentives. The deal is pending a physical, and because the Padres declined to offer him arbitration, the Rangers don’t cede a pick to the Padres.
The deal is a risk, both because Bradley is both injury prone and batshit crazy, but Bradley, to be honest, is actually now the best outfielder on the squad and will likely slide over to centerfield once the leg heals up.
Are you gambling that Wash, who Bradley wanted to reunite with, and whom is a Washington favorite, can keep him in line? Yes. Could it work? We’ll see. Bradley will likely miss time in the beginning of the season and will stay at DH until June or so.
What will this do to Jason Botts?
What we’ll likely see is a rotation of Botts, Cat, and Shelton at Left Field and Third Base until Bradley is completely healthy. It’s a workable compromise and will keep everyone healthy until things are sorted out.
Will the Rangers do any other improvements to the outfield? That remains to be seen. Bradley isn’t blocking anyone long term and his salary isn’t prohibitive. With Fukudome now a Cub, the only real free agent option available is off the table. That means that the Rangers will likely have to look at the non-tender market later today or the trade market. More on that in a bit…
Going To War With The Rotation You Have
The meme in Texas is that the Rangers need pitching.
My answer to that?
Where is it?
I’ve checked the free agent market. Unless you’re willing to roll the dice on Bartolo Colon or Freddy Garcia, there is no potential Number One or Two starters. When the best options are Kyle Lohse and Carlos Silva, back of the rotation dudes at best, that goes to show you that the market is just awful.
Now, if you want to do some trading on the market, you could find some pitchers that could be had for prospects, especially those on teams that may be looking to rebuild.
The Rangers have the ammunition to go after Johan Santana, and Tom Hicks has the funds to do it.
They could also go after Dan Haren, though I think they prefer not to trade within the division.
However, all of these deals come with a price. You lose valuable young players who can keep you competitive while spending little in these trades. You also lack that valuable pipeline of young talent to replace aging players. Michael Young won’t last forever and will likely be the Rangers’ third baseman by 2011, by which time either Elvis Andrus or Marcus Lemon will be taking over the position. Also, who will replace Padilla, who will book after 2009, and Kevin Millwood, who will book after 2010? Are you going to want to have to turn to the Jamey Wright’s and Carlos Silva’s to give you innings?
This season is a lost cause anyway, but it will serve as a way to give the kids innings while keeping the team cost effective FOR NOW. The Rangers are hoarding their dollars for the next superstar that may hit the market, by which time, there will be enough of a team for that future star to push the Rangers over the top.
Plus, the Rangers may have their own homegrown rotation sooner than you think.
Eric Hurley is nearly ready. So is Matt Harrison. The Rangers have a plethora of young arms in the lower minors, with some of them beginning to rise to the top.
Give things time. Frivolously throwing money away on mediocre starters is a poor way to build a ball club.
Ask the Cubs.
Off season Deals That I Thank God Didn’t Work Out
Mark Mulder (2006) – This was a buy low opportunity, but oh man was this bullet one I’m glad misfired. Mulder looks toast right now, something that no one thought back in the day, when he was arguably the best of the Big Three.
Barry Zito (2006) – This was a deal I actually campgained hard for, but am glad it didn't work out. Zito has been an out and out disaster for San Fran. He eats innings and...doesn't do much else.
Matt Morris (2005) – The Rangers actually went pretty hard after Morris, who was coming off of a very good year with the Cardinals and had long since had a reputation for being a good clubhouse guy and a outdated rep for being a great starting pitcher. Two years later and this deal is easily one of the biggest busts we’ve seen this decade.
Carlos Delgado (2004) – Yes, the Rangers did try to make a run at Delgado, with the idea of making him the starting first baseman and Mark Teixiera the everyday left fielder. Fortunately, he signed with Florida, who blew Texas’ offer away, and then would trade him after a single season.
Rangers Close To Signing Reliever
The Rangers are close to signing Japanese Reliever Kazo Fukumori to a two year deal, whcih would add another veteren reliever to the pen at a cheap price. Fukumori was injured in Japan last year, but could pay big dividends if he's ready.
More Trade Speculation
Noah Lowry (RHP – Giants) – On paper, this looks like a decent acquisition, as any time you can add a young starter is a good deal. Look closer, however, and I’d stay clear away from Lowry. His control is rather bad, he’s not much of an innings eater and he’s always been much more mortal away from A####mp;T Park. I heard one rumor stating that trading Ian Kinsler for him would get it done. I say nay.
Andre Ethier (RF – Dodgers) – Etheir is the odd man out in Los Angeles with Pierre moving to left field, Kemp likely in right and Jones in center and is reportedly being targeted by the Rangers. I’d totally do this if the Dodgers were willing, but a trade package might be hard to come up with. The Dodgers would likely ask for Eric Hurley or Edinson Volquez, with the Rangers offering Armando Galaragga and a few other prospects in return. It just remains to be seen if a deal can be reached that will be amicable to all parties.
Austin Kearns (RF – Nationals) – Kearns looks like he’s due for a bounce back season and playing in RFK probably didn’t help his numbers much. He’s signed to a very affordable long term deal and with the Nationals carrying four outfielders (five if they move Dmitri Young), Kearns is the odd man out. I’d be okay with signing him, especially since Kearns can reasonably play center, it’s just that the Nationals ask for the sun, moon, and stars for their players.
Matt Murton (OF – Cubs) – Murton hasn’t been given a fair shake by the Cubs to prove himself, as they’ve preferred to go after sexier names in the free agent market.
Mark DeRosa (2B – Cubs) – If the Cubs do acquire another player, I’d strongly ask them for Rosie if they won’t trade Murton. Rosie would have a chance to play everyday in Texas, likely in Right Field.
If Rosenthal is right, the Nationals just screwed over the Mets by acquiring Lastings Milledge for catcher Brian Schneider and outfielder Ryan Church.
This deal makes almost no sense. Schneider is a below average catcher signed to a long term deal that is really no better than Paul LoDuca and a lesser option as a catcher than Johnny Estrada, who will now either be traded or non-tendered. Church is a okay outfielder, who could be capable of playing center, but he has had some injury issues in the past and lacks the power needed for an outfielder corner.
What the hell was he thinking?
God, if they are any Nationals fans on this board, they got to be celebrating. Milledge has the potential to be an excellent outfielder and all star. He comes with some baggage, but honestly, it's workable and a lot of it may have been blown out of proportion by the Mets.
The Nats now enter 2008 with a lineup that looks like this:
Felipe Lopez (SS)
Austin Kearns (CF)
Ryan Zimmerman (3B)
Wily Mo Pena (LF)
Lastings Milledge (RF)
Dmitri Young (1B)
Ronny Belliard (2B)
Catcher To Be Named Later
Pitcher
I'm getting the feeling that when it's all said and done with the Mets, they will look at Minaya's hiring to possibly be a collosal mistake.
Good move Nationals.
P.S. - How the Hell Did Texas miss out on this? I would have offered Minaya Gerald Laird and Marlon Byrd, which aren't expensive and for the most part are younger than Church and Schnieder.
Update - 1:09 Pacific - For all the flak that Jim Bowden gets and for all the accolades that Omar Minaya gets, Minaya has struck out a lot more on his deals than Bowden has. Almost all of his good moves have pretty much been salary dumps, with only two trades, the John Maine for Kris Benson sawp and the Xavier Nady for Oliver Perez swap, actually panning out. This merits a study, now that I think about it. Look for it in December.
One of the things that Theo Epstein has always emphasized is the need to have a healthy farm system. Seeing that he had a natural advantage over much of the rest of baseball thanks to Boston’s financial clout giving him the ability to pay above slot for several impact arms, as well as the willingness to take a chance on talent that falls due to character concerns. As a result, what Boston has developed is a solid system filled with young, impact talent that could help extend the winning or provide the Red Sox with valuable trade chips. That was seen down the stretch with contributions from Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester, along with the heroics of Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia, all farm raised Red Sox. However, in terms of performance, it was also a hard year for some Sox prospects, who took their lumps this year, but overall, a lot of their prospects have done well for themselves. So, while the overall results may not agree with what some of you may regard, the skill is there for some dominance.
Red Sox Top 15
1 – Clay Buchholz (RHP)
DOB: 8/14/84
Drafted: 1st round, 2005, Angelina (Texas) JUCO
2008 Club: Boston Red Sox (MLB)
Height/Weight: 6-3/190
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: One of the two "Killer B's" duo for the Red Sox, Buchholz is the top prospect in the Red Sox's farm system and went through the season last year with flying colors, the highlights beng when he outdueled Roger Clemens in a rehab start and when he spun a no-hitter against the Orioles. Even with Curt Schilling back, there's really not a whole lot blocking Buchholz from Boston.
The Good: Buchholz has some of the nastiest stuff in the entire minor leagues. His fastball regularly clocks in the low to mid 90's, but he accompanies the impressive heater with a pair of plus offerings in his curveball and changeup. He also throws a two seam fastball that has late life as well. His command and control are outstanding and his delivery brings up no problems.
The Bad: Some would like to see him gain weight to build a bit more stamina. The only real criticism I’ve heard is from Ken Rosenthal, who reported in a column that Buchholz’s fastball has little movement, similar to Josh Beckett, which could result in a possible tendency to give up the long ball. Kevin Goldstein has mentioned that Buchholz doesn’t use his fastball enough as well. But really, I’m just nitpicking.
Projection: Low. Buchholz is possibly the best prospect in baseball, if not the best pitching prospect, and likely will be knocking on the door of the big club, much as Phil Hughes did with New York.
What He Can Be: A Big League Ace
2008 Course Of Action: There isn't much blocking Buchholz from Boston, but should he not make the team, he'll be waiting for someone to falter.
2 – Jacoby Ellsbury (CF)
DOB: 9/11/83
Drafted: 1st Round, 2005, Oregon State
2008 Club: Boston Red Sox (MLB)
Height/Weight: 6-1/185
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: After a solid college career, Ellsbury signed with the Red Sox, who saw him to be the eventual successor to Johnny Damon in centerfield. Ellsbury has done nothing but hit since then and after making a impression late in the season, he wound up taking over for Coco Crisp in the middle of the playoffs and got national fame for being the guy who swiped the base that won America a free taco, whoot!
The Good: Ellsbury is the prototypical leadoff centerfielder. He’s got excellent bat speed and great plate discipline. He’s got a good eye for pitches and is a solid runner on the bases. Defensively, he’s got outstanding range and fielding instincts.
The Bad: Ellsbury won’t hit for a lot of power and he’s got a below average arm for center. Also, while he does draw walks, he doesn’t have the amount of walks that a leadoff hitter usually has. Hence, there are many that feel that in order for Ellsbury to succeed as a leadoff man, he’s going to have to hit .300 constantly to makeup for the lack of power.
Projection: Low. Ellsbury is ready for the job now. However, Ellsbury doesn’t rank in the high ceilings of talent that some other centerfield prospects (Justin Upton, Andrew McCutchen and Jay Bruce to name a few), so he really is what he is, a safe prospect, a solid big leaguer, but in no ways a superstar.
What He Can Be: An every day centerfielder that makes a couple of All Star Teams.
2008 Course Of Action: After his monster postseason, it’s going to be hard for the Sox not to have Ellsbury as their opening day centerfielder. Expect them to shop Coco Crisp heavily.
3 – Justin Masterson (RHP)
DOB: 3/22/85
Drafted: 2nd round, 2006, San Diego State
2008 Club: Pawtucket Red Sox (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 6-6/250
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Masterson was a little-known quantity before his dominated 2005 Cape Cod League. Since then, he’s been rather solid for the Red Sox and one of the few prospects that hasn’t gotten the #### beat out of him on a regular basis. Since being acquired, the Red Sox have moved him into a starter, where they have hope that he can be similar to former Red Sox Derek Lowe.
The Good: Masterson is has a workhorse’s body and good size. His huge build helps give his sinking fastball some extra sink, giving it hellacious movement, inducing lots of groundouts and usually clocking in at around 90-92 mph, going as high as 94.. He compliments it with a tight slider. He rarely yields the long ball and has solid mechanics and control.
The Bad: Masterson is a groundball demon, but isn’t going to strike anyone out. His changeup is inconsistent, but the most troublesome problem with him is that in the rotation, he loses his stuff over extending innings, with the sinker falling to the high 90’s and his slider losing some of it’s sharpness. As a result, many feel he may be better off as a long reliever.
Projection: Average. Though still raw, Masterson is coming along well and has moved farther along than expected. For the moment, Boston is intent on keeping him in the rotation for now.
What He Can Be: A rotation workhorse.
2008 Course Of Action: Masterson has developed a little quicker than expected, and will likely being the season at Pawtuckett. I really don’t see him getting a call late in the season, except maybe in September.
4 – Michael Bowden (RHP)
DOB: 9/9/86
Drafted: 1st Round, 2005, Illinois High School
2008 Club: Portland Sea Dogs (Double A)
Height/Weight: 6-3/215
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Bowden is the other member of Boston's "Killer B's" pitching prospect set. While he's not nearly as good as Buccholz, Bowden figures to be a solid contributor once he gets to the majors. He dominated the California league last season, something that is hard to do, but may have been promoted a little too soon after he had trouble in Double A.
The Good: Bowden is a good-looking prospect. He's got a fastball that sits in the 89-92 range and his curveball is a plus offering. He's got a big frame and maintain his velocity deep into outings. He's also got outstanding command and control.
The Bad: Bowden needs to improve his changeup. Many also feel his delivery is too complex. He’s also a little flyball friendly.
Projection: Average. Depending on his changeup, Bowden could rise fast or stay where he's at, but it's not as if he's losing development time by staying in the minors for a couple of years.
What He Can Be: A Middle Of The Rotation Starter.
2008 Course Of Action: Bowden isn't as polished as Buchholz, so the Red Sox are taking it slower with him. Expect him to stay in Double A unless he forces Boston to promote him to Pawtucket.
5 – Jed Lowrie (SS)
DOB: 4/17/84
Drafted: 1st Round, 2005, Stanford
2008 Club: Pawtucket Red Sox (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 6-0/185
Bats/Throws: S/R
The Skinny: Lowrie had a tremendous career at Stanford, but struggles during wood bat showcases as an amateur put the fear of god in scouts and the result was that he dropped to the Red Sox. Lowrie has since enjoyed a breakout season in the high minors last year and should be ready to contribute to a big league club someday soon.
The Good: A solid athlete, Lowrie’s trademark was the fact that he had some solid plate discipline and it’s something that’s stayed with him as a pro. He hits equally well from both sides of the plate. He also hits for a little power and should contribute something to a major league club lineup near the back end of the order.
The Bad: Lowrie isn’t much of a burner, though he could be a 15-15 player as a second baseman. More concerning is that he’s lacking somewhat defensively. His arm is only average as is his accuracy, leading to the possibility that he may have to slide over to second base in the future. His power has also mysteriously disappeared since he signed. He has nothing close to Lillibridge’s speed though, and while stolen bases may be overrated, defense isn’t, and Lowrie is still a bit short there, lacking the first-step quickness needed to project as a player with enough range to stay on the left side of the infield.
Projection: Low. Lowrie’s pretty well developed, though the disappearance of his power is a concern. He looks like more of an offensive second baseman at this point, but the Red Sox will keep him at shortstop for now as Dustin Pedroia has second base locked up for what looks like a long time.
What He Can Be: A solid second baseman.
2008 Course Of Action: The fact that Lowrie was shown off during the Arizona Fall League was likely intentional, as the Red Sox are currently set at second and shortstop with Pedroia and Lugo. So, the Red Sox are hoping that Lowrie will invite some takers and could be flipped for something useful or hope that Lugo continues to build up trade value and they can flip him for Lowrie.
6 – Jason Place (CF)
DOB: 5/8/88
Drafted: 1st round, 2006, South Carolina HS
2008 Club: Greenville Drive (Low A)
Height/Weight: 6-3/205
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Place is another example of a high risk, high reward player who drew several comparisons to Braves outfielder Jeff Francoeur early on in his high school career. Place had an impressive short season debut, but his promotion to Low A revealed that he’s still really raw as a player.
The Good: Place has a lot of thunder in his bat and he can put on a show at batting practice or during a game. He’s got good speed and uses it well, making him a potential 20 steal guy in the majors. Defensively, Place uses his speed to cover a lot of ground and flashing some solid leather in the outfield. He’s got a cannon of an arm as well, an edge that he has over Jacoby Ellsbury, though it’s likely that Place will eventually shift to an outfield corner, as his bat fits better in that position.
The Bad: Place’s swing is long and despite the fact that the Red Sox have tried to get him to cut down on the strikeouts, chances are he’ll always strike out a lot. There is a concern as to how Place will adjust to advanced pitchers as he continues to advance.
Projection: Very high. Place’s struggles haven’t hurt his stock any; you have to keep in mind he’s still really young.
What He Can Be: An All Star Right Fielder
2008 Course Of Action: Place will likely repeat at Greenville, where the Red Sox hope that his exposure to full season ball wil help him get back on track.
7 – Ryan Kalish (CF)
DOB: 10/23/81
Drafted: 9th Round, 2006, New Jersey High School
2008 Club: Lowell Spinners (SS)
Height/Weight: 6-1/205
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: Another late round pick that fell because of money constraints, Kalish was regarded to be an excellent athlete with a lot of upside that needed to translate his tools into talent. After holding him back in extended this year, Kalish performed better than expected and was beginning to hit for power and average, while becoming a terror on the basepaths, before a broken hamate bone ended his season.
The Good: An excellent athlete with tools galore, Kalish has begun to translate them into performance. With solid power potential, excellent speed, a good approach to the plate, as well as solid defense, Kalish has a bright future ahead of him. Some feel he’s a potential leadoff hitter in the future.
The Bad: He’s still really raw, especially on defense, making some wonder if he’s a right fielder in the future. He also has trouble against lefties and he’s very much a Pedro Serrano type of guy (bat afraid of curve.)
Projection: Very High. Kalish has loads of potential, but the gap from what he can be and what he is now is just enormous.
What He Can Be: An impact centerfielder
2008 Course Of Action: I have Kalish repeating at Lowell, though Boston may feel his performance merits a promotion. I say, let’s see what he can do over a season and if he continues to hit like he did, promote him.
8 – Lars Anderson (1B)
DOB: 9/25/87
Drafted: 18th Round, 2006, California High School
2008 Club: Lancaster Jethawks (High A)
Height/Weight: 6-4/210
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: Regarded by many to be a first round talent, Anderson scared off many people because of his bonus demands and scouts were divided on him otherwise. The Red Sox decided to give him a shot in the 18th, playing him nearly $900,000 and thus far, he’s been raking ever since.
The Good: A large, powerful slugger with good athleticism, Anderson’s projectable frame gives him one of the highest power ceilings in the system. His swing is extremely smooth and he displays great hitter's frame and excellent pitch recognition.
The Bad: Anderson is only an average first baseman and may be better off as a DH. He also strikes out a ton. He’s also a bit of an afternoon delight (power in BP, not as much during the games.)
Projection: High. In spite of his strikeout totals and his defense, he still has a lot of upside and has a lot more to grow.
What He Can Be: A middle of the order first baseman who gets the David Ortiz treatment
2008 Course Of Action: Anderson will likely return to Lancaster, where he should put up some obscene numbers in one of the most hitter friendly parks in the minors.
9 – Nick Hagadone (LHP)
DOB: 1/01/86
Drafted: 1st Round (S), 2007, University Of Washington
2008 Club: Lancaster Jethawks (High A)
Height/Weight: 6-5/230
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: After spending last year starting behind Tim Lincecum, Hagadone became Washington's Friday night starter to begin the year. He was moved to the bullpen after two starts because of team need and was outstanding for the Huskies, showing the ability to save games and pitch multiple innings. Boston found themselves without a first rounder this year and selected Hagaone, who has made the selection look smart.
The Good: A big left who is slowly being stretched out again as a starter, Hagadone has a fastball that sits in the low 90’s and tops out at 95 with good movement through the zone. He also has a hard slider that is a plus pitch, giving him an effective two pitch combo. He’s also working on a promising changeup and a splitter. Boston loves his work ethic and his bulldog demeanor on the mound. All in all, he’s got a good package of tools.
The Bad: There are some concerns that he may not be able to maintain his stuff over six or seven innings. Plus, while the changeup is promising, it’s still a ways off. There are also concerns about his delivery as well.
Projection: Average. He could have a chance at an effective two-pitch mix, but worst-case scenario, he’d be an excellent setup man or closer with his stuff.
What He Can Be: A middle of the rotation horse or a setup man with closer ambitions.
2008 Course Of Action: With his first year in the books, Hagadone will be sent to full season ball to get his feet under him. Unfortunately, that likely means an assignment to Lancaster, one of the worst hitters parks in the nation that has already claimed one Red Sox prospect (see Bard, Daniel). There’s also the possibility that he could be assigned to Greenville. I don’t know, we’ll see.
10 – Oscar Tejeda (SS)
DOB: 12/12/89
Signed: 2006, Dominican Republic
2008 Club: Greenville Drive (Low A)
Height/Weight: 6-1/177
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: The other of the Red Sox’s two big name International Signings, Tejeda has performed just as well, if not better than fellow bonus baby Engel Beltre, since traded to the Rangers. Tejeda hit well in for the Gulf Coast League Red Sox and the Lowell Spinners and overall, his performance is remarkable considering how old he is.
The Good: Though the power isn't there quite yet, it should gradually emerge in time. He’s got good bat speed, well, speed in general, and has excellent range, good hands, and a strong arm.
The Bad: He’s still young, and still has a long way to go in terms of development. And, as I’ve said, he’s got power potential, and it’s not here yet. He’s also prone to errors, though that’s mostly because he plays with a flashy, undisciplined style.
Projection: Super High. Tejeda is definitely a high class talent and should develop nicely nto a potential superstar if he keeps this up. However, what he can be is a long way off from what he is now.
What He Can Be: An Above Average Shortstop, Occasional All-Star.
2008 Course Of Action: With Tejeda holding his own against advanced competition, Tejeda will likely head up to full season ball, which should tell us more about him than what we’ve learned in his short-season stints.
11 – Josh Reddick (CF/RF)
DOB: 2/19/87
Drafted: 17th Round, 2006, Middle Georgia College
2008 Club: Lowell Spinners (High A)
Height/Weight: 6-2/180
Bats/Throws: L/R
The Skinny: Yet another Red Sox bonus baby, Reddick began the year in Extended spring training before joining Greenville for 94 games, hitting .306/.352/.531 wit 18 homers and 72 RBI’s.
The Good: Reddick is a solid hitting prospect, with good hand-eye coordination, bat speed, and raw power allowing him to be able to hit at any level given time. He’s an excellent athlete that has good speed, a solid arm and is a decent defender.
The Bad: Reddick can be overaggressive at the plate and will be taken advantage of as he rises, likely resulting in increased strikeout totals. He also is more suited to right field than center, as his range is fringy at best in center.
Projection: Average. Reddick is developing on schedule, but needs to make some refinements in his plate discipline in order for him to increase his value in the lineup. He’ll likely always strikeout a lot, but if he can increase his walk totals and hit for a tolerable average, he should be good.
What He Can Be: An good corner outfielder.
2008 Course Of Action: Reddick was a big surprise and should put up some solid numbers in Lancaster. However, people are still going to dismiss Reddick’s performance as that of a hitter taking advantage of a hitters park, so it’s likely that there won’t be any reduction of his critics criticisms until he reaches Portland, likely in August.
12 – Kris Johnson (LHP)
DOB: 10/14/84
Drafted: 1st round, 2006, Wichita State
2008 Club: Portland Sea Dogs (Double A)
Height/Weight: 6-4/170
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: Draft eligible as a sophomore, Johnson was returned for his Junior Year after having to recover from Tommy John surgery, but returned quickly and finished strongly. Unfortunately, he was them sent to the California League last year and was hammered, though in his defense, Lancaster is a hard park to pitch in.
The Good: Johnson throws a 89-92 mph sinking fastball and compliments it with a solid curveball. He also has a very good changeup as well. His delivery is smooth and he keeps his head on the mound.
The Bad: Command and control are still off, a typical symptom of TJ Survivors. He's also inconsistent and there have been questions just to how good he'll be.
Projection: Average. Johnson has proven that he can at least last for clear to 150 innings or so, but he needs to gain some consistency on the mound.
What He Can Be: A Number 4 Starter.
2008 Course Of Action: I don't think that Johnson or the Red Sox have any desire to send him back to Lowell, so it's likely to Portland for him.
13 – Brandon Moss (RF)
DOB: 9/16/83
Drafted: 8th Round, 2002, Georgia High School
2008 Club: Pawtucket Red Sox (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 6-0/205
Bats/Throws: L/R
The Skinny: Three years ago, Moss first became a blip on the prospect scene after he destroyed the Sally League and was named league MVP. After that, Moss faded a bit after he posted a pair of subpar seasons over in Double A Portland. Since then, Moss has managed to boost his stock back to where he can be considered a prospect again.
The Good: Moss, an excellent athlete, has very solid power in his swing and could be a 20-30 home run threat once he finishes developing. He’s got a solid swing and he is able to hit to all fields. He’s got a cannon of an arm, which works well in right field and has decent speed as well. Overall, he’s got a decent set of tools.
The Bad: Moss’ range is limited, meaning that he’s going to have to play a corner. Defensively, Moss is only an average defender in right and will need to greatly improve it if he wants to stay there. Finally, Moss is impatient at the plate, as judged by his almost 2 to 1 ratio of strikeouts to walks. While many feel that he can maintain a decent average, I think he’ll average about .275 to .280. Not bad, but not great either.
Projection: Low. Moss should be ready to contribute to a big league squad by June or so.
What He Can Be: An average right fielder that hits for power.
2008 Course Of Action: It’s going to be impossible for Moss to find a job in the Red Sox outfield. He’ll be a traded sometime this fall, making it likely we could see him again.
14 – Daniel Bard (RHP)
DOB: 6/25/85
Drafted: 1st Round, 2006, University of North Carolina
2008 Club: Lancaster Jethawks (High A)
Height/Weight: 6-4/200
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Bard came into last year's draft with one of the best arms in the draft, but a lack of consistency as far as his performance, plus the salary demands of teammate Andrew Miller resulted in Bard falling until the Red Sox took him toward the end of the first round. He signed too late to make a pro-debut last year and nearly returned to North Carolina for his senior season before a deal was struck late. Since then, everything that could go wrong has gone wrong, with Bard getting destroyed in A Ball and having to deal with arm and elbow issues as well.
The Good: Bard's got a live arm, one of the best in the draft, and that's even above higher drafted players such as Luke Hochevar and Tim Lincecum. He's got an easy delivery and throws his plus fastball in the mid 90's, though he can touch 98 and he's got good movement on it. His slider is also a plus pitch, sitting in the mid to upper 80's. His circle change and his curveball are decent pitches as well.
The Bad: Bard has always been inconsistent since his days in North Carolina. His command and control are below what he should have as a college pitcher. Bard's other weapons, though decent, are far from extraordinary, and many people are wondering if Bard's future may be as a reliever, though his fastball and slider have closer potential. Combined with all of the arm ailments, and he’s going to be trouble.
Projection: Average. Bard needs a lot of development time and work for him to have success. His college numbers are quite average, and while the arm is valuable, it’s going to take some time. I think long term, you’ll see Bard get moved into the pen.
What He Can Be: A Power Closer, A La K-Rod
2008 Course Of Action: Bard will likely return to the California League after some work in extended Spring Training. The Red Sox are likely going to hope that Bard is able to regroup from his earlier pounding and force a promotion to Double A, like Bowden did.
15 – George Kottaras (C)
DOB: 5/10/83
Drafted: 20th round, 2002, Connors State Junior College (Draft And Follow – Padres)
2008 Club: Pawtucket Red Sox (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 6-0/190
Bats/Throws: L/R
The Skinny: Acquired from San Diego for David Wells, Kottaras was one of the few prospects the Padres had that was really any good. However, Kottaras struggled for much of his time in Boston, but came to life in the second half of last season when he became a monster.
The Good: Kottaras is an offensive minded catcher, though many feel that his flaws are correctable. A natural hitter with good plate discipline, Kottaras has some power that could potentially make him a 20 homer threat. He’s got a decent arm and has experience catching a knuckleballer.
The Bad: Kottaras struggles against lefties last season, but struggled against right handers this season. Odd. Despite his arm, he has trouble throwing out base stealers thanks to a slow release.
Projection: Low. The Red Sox are hoping that Kottaras’ late second half surge is a sign of him turning the corner, but beyond that, there’s not much room to grow left for him.
What He Can Be: A starting catcher
2008 Course Of Action: The Red Sox will likely return Kottaras to Triple A, where they hope he can continue his hot hitting ways, but their recent interest in the Rangers’ catching backlog doesn’t speak much in terms of their confidence.
Not Ranked, But May Be Seen In Big Leagues This Year
The Skinny: A late round pick, Carter bashed his way through the minor leagues, setting impressive power totals everywhere he’s gone. Unfortunately for him, he had almost no shot of cracking Arizona’s roster, with his positions being occupied by established veterans. However, Carter had his admirers and was included in the three-way trade that netted the Nationals Wily Mo Pena.
The Good: Power is Carter’s best, and really only tool, though he does have decent plate discipline.
The Bad: Carter is regarded to be an abysmal defender in left and bad at first base. He’s probably best suited to be a DH, though with some work in Spring Training, it’s possible that he could be reasonably okay at first if stuck there.
Projection: Low. Carter was regarded by many to be simply a minor league slugger with no real shot at making an impact on the roster, but Boston has had some scouting coups in the past and are likely banking on Carter to be their regular first baseman next year, allowing Youkilis to move back to third.
What He Can Be: A regular first baseman
2008 Course Of Action: It really all depends on what the Red Sox decide to do with Youkilis. If they decide to move him to third, Carter will likely enter the season as the everyday first baseman. If they decide to bring back Lowell or chase down Alex Rodriguez, Carter gets screwed over again.
And for Giggles…
Craig Hansen (RHP)
DOB: 11/15/83
Drafted: 1st Round, 2005, St. John's University
2008 Club: Pawtucket Red Sox (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 6-6/210
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: When the Red Sox drafted Hansen, they expected him to be their closer of the future. Obviously, that forecast has changed, as Papelbon will be the closer while Hansen tries to regain some of his former luster, which he has thanks to a excellent finish to the season.
The Good: Despite his stock falling hard, Hansen still has to solid pitches in a fastball that clocks in the mid 90’s and tops out at 98. His slider has decent movement and gets up to 85.
The Bad: The slider is not the plus pitch that it was when Hansen was back at St. John’s. Part of the reason is the ball. In the NCAA, the stitches on the ball are higher than in the majors, resulting in some loss of movement. The bigger problem has been command and confidence, as Hansen tends to get wild and got hammered quite a bit, though oddly enough, he was a lot better on the road than he was at Fenway.
Projection: Fair. I’m not , but I’m really not sure what exactly can be done to fix Hansen, as he was rushed a little bit.
What He Can Be: Maybe A Closer, More Likely A Setup Man, Looking Like Neither Will Be With Boston
2008 Course Of Action: Hansen will try to latch on with the Red Sox out of spring training, but long term I think he’s a goner. Look for him to get moved at the deadline in a deal for a need or for prospects that are a lot farther off.
Final Thoughts
Though the Farm System has lost some talent in recent years, it’s still very much loaded. Buchholz, Bowden, Ellsbury, and Tejeda are all talents any team would love to have in their respective systems and there are enough B class prospects that could carve out decent major league careers with the Red Sox or with other teams if they are dealt. Overall, Boston’s system is a testament to the philosophy that if you throw enough money at high ceiling talents, it’ll pay off in the long run.
Sources, Scouting Reports, and Thanks to: Kevin Goldstein (Baseball Prospectus), Keith Law (ESPN), Soxprospects.com, B.J. Medrano, Jim Callis And The Rest Of Baseball America, Jonathan Mayo (MLB.com), MiLB.com, Sam Corral and Erica Belmontes, Ernie Carlson, Lonestarball.com, Jamey Newberg (Newbergreport.com), Brewerfan.net and Mike Hindman (Rangers Farm Report)
The problems with rushing draft picks, Southside Eckstein, Pods Back On The Market, and the Price On Dontrelle Willis.
The Problems With Rushing Draft Picks
One of the things that I’m noticing in recent years is the rushing of draft picks.
Usually, this is done with relievers, who are viewed to be almost ready made, a practice that has gone back since the Nationals brought up Chad Cordero months after being drafted. However, this practice is taking it's toll on the prospects, mostly because teams feel that these college kids should be ready to start immediately.
This has recently been found out the hard way by the Detroit Tigers, who are now paying the price of rushing Andrew Miller, who has been awful his last few starts. The warning signs were there with Miller, who has walked more batters than he struck out and was regarded to be still raw coming out of college.
A better example would be Craig Hansen and Joey Devine, two players selected in the 2005 draft that were called up to the Majors quickly. Too quickly.
Devine was destroyed in limited time with the Braves and only recently has begun to show signs of coming out of his shellacking. Hansen isn't as fortunate and is in danger of possibly being dealt or cut by the Red Sox, who made the mistake of calling him up too soon.
Often times Clubs will be a bit overdependant on their system to provide them with help in their hours of need, oftentimes too soon for the kids to do much good.
And often times, those kids may never recover.
So, let it be a lesson, even a cautionary tale, of why sometimes you might need to look elsewhere rather than within, less you render your own internal asset useless for the rest of the future.
Eckstein Southside? Sounds Like A Disaster.
According to Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times, shortstop David Eckstein has become the top off-season target of the White Sox, who are now tired of Juan Uribe’s lack of production (is it possible to be out hit by Adam Kennedy? It’s starting to look like it.)
I’m not sure if that’s a great idea, even if the shortstop market is looking dismal. Eckstein will be 33 heading into next season, and he’s begun to break down, with more and more time on the DL due to injuries. Big money would be a mistake, especially when you consider that Eckstein lacks lower and as a leadoff man is very depended on slapping the ball and hoping his speed will let him beat it out. That’s not going to last much longer, especially as he begins to lose speed next year.
Another nugget to consider is that Eckstein may be classified as a Type A Free Agent, and would warrent the White Sox surrendering their Second Round Pick, something that the Whtie Sox may give pause to, especially as they begin what is likely a rebuilding process that will require all the high picks it needs.
The White Sox, really, should begin to look around at the various farm systems in the league (Kenny Williams has scouted several systems and knows the prospects he wants from each one religiously) to see if there is any way to net a shortstop prospect that is near ready, but blocked. A young player would be much better as it would give the White Sox payroll flexability and the potential to groom another face of the franchise around them.
Pods Back On The Market
Scott Podsednik is going to be available soon.
The White Sox have begun playing Josh Fields in left field. This likely means that
Joe Crede will be brought back for his final season.
Podsednik is out of a job, as the White Sox have fallen in love with Darin Erstad (big mistake) as their fourth outfielder.
Does Pods have any value?
Some, but not enough to start him. He'd make a decent fourth outfielder on a team that has several established ones and he's got the speed to be a decent pinch runner. With his stock down, his price will be cheap as well.
Pods has really had only one good year, but beyond that, he's prett y much useless as a starter.
And to think, I got the most hate mail over my view of Pods as a backup.
Heh.
The Price On Dontrelle
Dontrelle Willis has had a difficult season in Florida, and with his price increase coming in arbitration, followed by Miguel Cabera's impending raise, Willis could finally be out there for the taking.
The Marlins have kinda messed up this situation a bit, as Willis was at the peak of his value last off-season and would have netted a nice haul. However, Willis has lost some of his luster and teams may be less willing to give up the farm for him.
However, there still will be a great deal of suitors, as Willis is a power pitching lefty on the right side of 30 and has a reputation for being a horse as well as an innings eater. Someone will bite.
The Marlins have indicated that they want pitching and catching in return in exchange for Willis. Is there a match?
Somewhat.
The Mariners have catching prospect Jeff Clement to offer up and potentially Wladmir Baltentin, a centerfielder, that they could offer back, but no real pitching of consequnce.
The Mets could offer up an outfield prospect and potenitlally Philip Humber and Mike Pelfrey, but no real catching prospects exist in that organization.
The Rangers could offer back Gerald Laird, who has been displaced by Saltalamacchia, but the Marlins would demand Salty instead, along with top prospect Eric Hurley, a package that would scare off the Rangers.
The Yankees will likely be mentioned, but will only offer up end of the rotation starters such as Tyler Clippard and Jeff Marquez, while the Marlins would demand either Ian Kennedy or Joba Chamberlain.
The Dodgers could be interested, but their only real prospect of value of Clayton Kershaw and he's untouchable.
Perhaps the Rockies and Diamondbacks, teams in need of starting pitching, could make an offer with some of their depth of positional prospects, but no pitching options are available to make a fit possible.
The Marlins are thus in a touchy spot. They could let Willis leave after this year and reap the two comp draft picks, but if he's signed by a crappy team, all they'll get is a second rounder and a sandiwch pick. If they trade him, they'll want to get what Willis was worth last season, and not what he's worth then.
So, it's going to be interesting to see how the Marlins operate this, to put it lightly, delicate situation when they've handled so many of their public relations issues with bazookas.
Having to scrap the additions to the 40 man for now, but I’ve instead need to work on something else.
September Call Ups.
Here’s who we could see up for the Rangers after September 1st.
Armando Galarraga (RHP) – The big fish of the group, Galarraga was the third prospect traded in the Alfonso Soriano trade, Galarraga had a poor 2006 season, mostly after trying to recover from heavy workloads as well as being fresh of Tommy John. He’s since become beastly for both the Frisco Roughriders and the Oklahoma Redhawks and was even considered to be named the starter on Saturday until it was decided Jamey Wright would play. He’ll likely be a part of the odd six man rotation idea that the Rangers have going.
A.J. Murray (RHP) – The Bullpen can use another lefty and Murray is showing signs of improvement. There’s also the possibility that he could begin to get work as a starter, as that’s how the organization views him long term.
Edinson Volquez (RHP) – Simply put, Volquez has had a excellent season and deserves a shot to prove that he’s ready to finally be a viable rotation option and not simply just a intriguing arm that can’t get it done.
Chris Stewart (C) – Stewart will be the third catcher and will be auditioning for the backup role next year.
Victor Diaz (RF) – Diaz is also on the hot seat and needs to prove that he’s ready to mash at the big league level. He could make life difficult to Nelson Cruz in the coming days, especially if he really tears it up.
Freddy Guzman (CF) – Another guy fighting for his job, Guzman needs to prove he’s worth his 40 Man spot, otherwise he’ll be DFA’d and tried to pass through waivers.
Centerfield In Texas
Though the Rangers have had some good work in centerfield from Marlon Byrd, the Rangers could use an upgrade in centerfield. I’m not sure Byrd can sustain this rate and he’s a much worse player outside of Rangers Ballpark.
So, is there any available options out there to help improve?
One route is externally. The Rangers could try to acquire one of the free agent centerfielders in the market this off-season, with Andruw Jones, Mike Cameron, Aaron Rowand, and Corey Patterson, with Japanese import Kosuke Fukudome behind them all. Signing any of them except for Fukudome would result in the loss of a second round pick (as the Rangers’ 1st rounder is all but assured to be a Top 5.)
A better option would be to pursue a trade option, with three options available in the East in Boston’s Coco Crisp, New York’s Johnny Damon and Tampa’s Rocco Baldelli.
Crisp is one year away from free agency and he has prospect Jacoby Ellsbury breathing down his neck for the job. Boston could look at unloading Crisp to make room for Ellsbury and use the savings to improve other parts of the offense or bullpen if they so desire. I’m not sure why type of trade could be reached, but maybe the Rangers could make a deal if the parts are unable to match. The price shouldn’t be exorbant because Crisp only has one more year left on his deal. Then again, this deal could backfire, considering that the Rangers would be in the same boat next year.
Damon is also an option, as he can play center to a certain extent and could be rested by Byrd or Murphy if need be. He’s locked in for two more years and by the time he’s ready, centerfield prospect Julio Borbon could be ready to take over. The problem here is that New York would seek to cash in on Damon similar to how they cashed in on Sheffield last year. I’m not sure that Texas is willing to give up some of their lower level prospects, and certainly not Chris Davis, a slugging third baseman that may be moved to first that is near ready, and would be someone New York would covet. Plus, Damon could veto the deal and he’s beginning to decline.
Baldelli is another option, as he has an affordable contract and can hit in the middle of the order. He’s a strong defender as well. The problem with the Baldelli hasn’t played much over the last five years and has more injury issues than Damon. And while he might not cost as much as Damon (thanks to the Devil Rays now having a set outfield of Young, Upton and Crawford), there isn’t any proof that the Baldelli can stay healthy.
The Rangers could try to work some type of four man outfield, depending on who stays. The Rangers currently need to figure out what to do with the mass amount of outfielders they have on the roster right now. Frank Catalonotto, Victor Diaz, Byrd, Murphy, and Nelson Cruz all need playing time and if the Rangers are to acquire Baldelli or another centerfielder, they need to move one or both of Diaz or Cruz to allow regular time for Catalonotto, Byrd and Murphy along with the assumed acquisition of Baldelli.
Washington Wants A “Natural” First Baseman
Texas needs a regular first baseman. Right now, Texas has a #### combination of Frank Catalanotto, Brad Wilkerson and Saltalamacchia sharing time, but the Rangers want a regular first baseman, one that has experience as the position. And of those three, Cat can’t play the infield anymore, Salty’s catching full time next year and Wiffy is likely history. Washington has made it clear however, that he wants a natural first baseman for next season.
Which leaves the trade market?
Anyone available that the Rangers could pursue?
Some. Here are the best options right now:
Nomar Garciaparra (Trade – Dodgers). The Dodgers appear to have bitten off more than they could chew by bringing Garciaparra back this season instead of simply allowing him to leave this off-season. While the financial commitment to Nomar isn’t big, he’s blocking James Loney, who should be playing first from now on, and is blocking Andy LaRoche, who should be playing third. Nomar could put up big numbers in Arlington and may accept a trade to Texas (his wife, Mia, is from here) and could be guaranteed a place to play. It would be a worthwhile gamble for one year, after which the Rangers could promote Chris Davis to play first for one more year.
Adam LaRoche (Trade – Pirates). The Pirates could be interested to trade LaRoche to the Rangers after the improvement of prospect Steven Pearce, who could provide roughly what LaRoche has given them this season at a fraction of the price. Honestly, this deal does make some sense, as not only would it allow the Pirates to get less expensive, it would also allow them to acquire a package of players in exchange. I would likely start a package built around Laird, a young catcher that could benefit in the NL, plus would allow him to split time with Robby Paulino. A package of Luis Mednoza, Laird, and maybe Joaquin Arias or Elvis Andrus might do it. Then again, it’s the Pirates, and for all I know, they would do it for Laird straight up or as a way to get rid of the carcass of Matt Morris.
Todd Helton (Trade – Rockies). This deal could be done, since the Rockies are just looking to get Helton’s contract off the books and were willing to do it for relief help last year. The Rangers again might be able to do it for a package revolving around Laird, who would love his new home, along with a package of Mendoza, Scott Feldman, and change. Maybe. The big issue would be getting Helton to waive his no trade.
Chad Tracy (Trade – Diamondbacks). Tracy was reportedly offered to the Rangers in a potential Mark Teixeira deal, but the deal didn’t progress enough beyond the “WTF? That’s It?” stage. Tracy’s stock is down enough that the Rangers would consider a deal and he wouldn’t be expensive. The only issue is whether or not the rumors are true that Tracy’s body is deteriorating and that he might not be able to play for much longer. Interestingly enough, the Rangers have a prospect of the same name. Imagine the hillarity if both players made the active roster in the same year.
Hank Blalock (Positional Move). There are some worries that Hank Blalock may not be able to throw to first anymore and may not be able to recover from his recent surgery and be able to play third base. So, there has been talk about using Travis Metcalf, a smooth defender with some offensive promise, and moving Hank to First. Hey, at least it wouldn’t be expensive…
Nick Johnson (Trade – Nationals). Nick Johnson is done for the year and doubtful for Spring Training, but with the Nationals making a commitment to Dmitri Young, the Nats’ former first baseman is now likely to be shopped in a trade. Johnson is attractive in that he’s a solid defender, makes hard contact and hits with some power and is generally regarded to be a good clubhouse guy. But how healthy is he and is he ready to play? And will Jim Bowden be crazy enough to demand two top prospects like he did for Young at the deadline and Chad Cordero?
Dan Johnson (Trade – Athletics). It’s not that farfetched that the Rangers could do a trade with their interdivision rivals. Laird came from the Athletics, as did John Rheinnecker, so obviously Beane has no problem trading in the division. Johnson is a candidate to be non-tendered, as he’s out of options and has cooled off since his hot start after returning to the big league club. I would think a deal would be done where it wouldn’t be too expensive and the deal wouldn’t bite the Rangers in the future. Then again, they could always try to get him after he’s nontendered and not have to send Oakland ####, so we’ll see.
Sean Casey (FA – Tigers). Casey isn’t coming back after this season, as the Tigers are looking for a shortstop to allow them to move to Carlos Guillen to first base in order to reduce the wear on his body. Casey is a capable defender, but offensively, he doesn’t offer much, which is a shame, as he seems to be a genuinely nice guy.
Before You Ask, No Pitching!!!
Before you go into the usual “The Rangers Need Pitching” mantra, no they don’t. Here’s the rotation coming into next year.
Kevin Millwood (RHP)
Brandon McCarthy (RHP)
Kason Gabbard (LHP)
Vicente Padilla (RHP)
Fifth Starter
That’s actually not a bad rotation. Millwood has improved greatly after a rough start to the season and McCarthy and Gabbard look like they will have bright futures. Padilla is having a rough season, but with some rest and work, he should be okay as the 4th man in the rotation. There are also a lot of potential fifth starters that could potentially knock Padilla to the 5th spot if he’s not careful. The Rangers will have Kameron Loe John Rheinecker and Edinson Volquez that can capably fill the spot, plus potentially Eric Hurley, Armando Galarraga, Luis Mendoza, Doug Mathis, and Josh Rupe waiting in Triple A for a shot.
There are enough internally options here, enough potential starting pitchers that can be 3rd or 4th guys (with Hurley capable of being a 1) that the Rangers have the luxery of building a staff from within. Hell, after the years they have had, Galarraga and Mendoza could become coveted trade chips this season after doing well in Double and Triple A.
And with the off-season’s best starters looking like a Livan Hernandez and Julian Tavarez, I’m not sold on building externally, especially if it will cost a draft pick.
Potential Trade With Detroit On The Way
The Rangers are discussing trading an outfielder to the Detroit Tigers, who are looking for bench help. The two trade targets are believed to be Brad Wilkerson or Frank Catalonotto, both of whom have cleared waivers and can be traded to anyone. Of the two, Wiffy is the one most likely to be traded, as he’s a short term commitment that wouldn’t require much of value exchanged. As for Cat, he’s next year’s starting left fielder and he’s on a tear, but the money involved would be prohibitive.
Rangers Notes (Majors)
Part of why Willie Eyre has been destroyed as of late is apparently due to injury. Eyre will be undergoing Tommy John Surgery and will be out of commission till 2009 at the earliest. The Rangers won’t be picking up the tab for him to remain on the roster and he’ll likely be non-tendered.
One of the best things John Daniels did was not to Sign Gary Matthews Jr. For 5 years, $50 million and instead sign Lofton to his one year, $6 million deal. The Matthews’ deal was stupid back then and is stupider now, as Matthews has regressed to his old form, that of a fourth outfielder that isn’t good enough to play center, but can’t hit enough to be an outfield corner. Matthews also ranks last in Zone Rating among all AL centerfielders. Meanwhile, Lofton was a excellent defender here and was flipped for a solid young catching prospect, Max Ramirez, who is regarded to be a franchise catcher. Add in the two draft picks gained for Matthews that brought in Michael Main and Evan Reed and the Rangers made out like bandits.
Next Week On The Rangers Report - Breaking Down The AFL Candidates, As Well As Naming My Minor League Players Of The Year.
Adam Dunn's time is running out, Rowand in DC, Jack Wilson heading to Detroit, More Trouble For Matt Bush, and the end of Gerald Laird's Ranger career, all coming up!
Adam Dunn May Be Done In Cincinnati
Adam Dunn may be in his last season with the Reds. It's not because of the strikeouts, or because of the Reds' woes, or even the fact that the Reds want to cut payroll to help supplement other areas of the staff.
It's because of Jay Bruce and Joey Votto.
Bruce is a talented Reds prospect is nearly ready after jumping several levels in the minor leagues and now holding his own in Triple A. He's got power, a solid eye, a capable defender and a good arm, all things that the Reds could use. As far as who he projects to be, Larry Walker is a common comparison.
Josh Hamilton has already established himself as the Reds' centerfielder, with Griffey holding down right field, which leaves left field as the only place for the uber-talented Bruce to start.
First base isn't an option either, beucase of Votto, a solid hitting first baseman that plays better defense than Dunn at first and blocks him.
Without the DH rule, that would render Dunn a very expensive bench player at $12 million.
However, the Reds won't let him leave without them getting something valuable back. It's possible that the Reds could pick up the option and look to trade Dunn this off-season, hopefully for much less than they asked the Angels when they looked into getting him.
A trade with the Rangers is possible because of the Rangers' needs for a first baseman/outfielder. However, the Rangers won't give up much for a one year rental, unless Dunn consents to an extension, which won't happen with free agent prices skyrocketing. Nor would the Rangers part with valueable prospects in return, in particular Eric Hurley and Taylor Teagarden, two of Texas' top prospects that the Reds would demand in return.
San Francisco may be a fit, as the Giants will need a power source on the team with Bonds not likely to return, however, prospects will be hard to exchange because the Giants have none and they will not consent to trading Jonathan Sanchez, a talented lefty that may be able to start that the Reds would target in return.
Were I to hazard a guess, the best fit for Dunn could be the Yankees, who need a first baseman not named Andy Phillips or god knows what else they've been running out there. They have the prospects to spare for Dunn, as they have several starting pitchers that could succeed in the National League that are of no use to them, and it wouldn't be a long term commitment, as the Yankees would be able to let Dunn go in order to pursue Braves first baseman Mark Teixeira.
Should be an interesting off-season in Cincinnati.
Monroe For Wilson Swap In The Works?
Detroit wants to find an NL club that is willing to take Craig Monroe, who was DFA'd, in parts of keeping him out of the AL.
Pittsburgh has been interested in Monroe in the past and would be willing to trade shortstop Jack Wilson if the Tigers pick up all of the $14.35 million remaining on the final two years of his three-year, $20.2 million contract.
The Tigers inquired about Wilson and nearly had a deal done for him at the deadline before talks fell apart becaue the Pirates asked for...Craig Monroe.
Surely the two clubs could work something out.
Rowand To DC?
Phillies center fielder Aaron Rowand is a free agent after the season, and while he hasn't revealed much on what he's doing after the season, he does like Washington, whom he feels is a up and coming team and will be a contender in a couple of years.
Rowand would be a solid addition to Washington and would be marketed as a face of the franchise and would be a team leader there.
However, I don't see it happening.
Washington is already experiencing a logjam in the outfield, with Wily Mo Pena, Ryan Church, Nook Logan, Austin Kearns and potentially Dmitri Young all vying for playing time.
Furthermore, Rowand will likely recieve more lucrative offers from his three top suitors, the Rangers, the Phillies, and the White Sox (not in that order.)
So as nice an idea it is, it won't happen.
More Trouble For Matt Bush
The Padres have confirmed that Matt Bush,the first overall pick in 2004, will need Tommy John Surgery on his pitching elbow, saying he should be good to go again in a year.
This is only the latest setback for Bush, who has been injury prone and under performed by the Padres, who took him instead of Tigers Ace Justin Verlander (fear of a holdout) and then Florida State shortstop Stephen Drew, who the scouts recommended to take, but were overruled because of cost. Also passed up was Jered Weaver, who fell to the Angels.
Bush was converted in June to pitching and has posted good results until recently,
