Time for the team previews to resume.

Today, the hat says...we're going North of the Border.

Team Previews 2008 – Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays have in recent years made the setp toward respectability, but that has come in spite of of bad signings, bad drafts and bad personnel decisions overall by management, specifically J.P Riccardi.  To put it bluntly, the Jays are in a tough spot, as they don't suck as bad as some of the other teams in the AL, but they aren't as good as the cream of the crop. 

Starting Rotation

1. Roy Halladay (RHP) – Halladay is still an effective pitcher, though he has begun depending more on groundballs these days instead of flat out dominating hitters like he used to.  He’s still a bit of a health risk, but as long as that knuckle-curve of his remains solid and the fastball low, he should be dominant again.
2. A.J. Burnett (RHP) – Gifted, but injured, Burnett is entering his walk year, as he’s likely to opt out of his current contract to hit free agency this coming off-season.  Burnett could be a legitimate top of the rotation starter, but he either gets injured or struggles just when it looks like he’s turned a corner.  However, because of the money at stake, look for him to actually pitch nearly a complete season, with decent numbers.
3. Dustin McGowan (RHP) – Best pure stuff of the young starters, McGowan should be able to elevate his status enough to where he can be considered a capable number two.  He’s got four good pitches, including his fastball that can reach the mid 90’s and has some ink to it.  His only real weakness is lefties, but aside from that, he could effectively replace Burnett as soon as next season, provided that the Jays have some help to replace his spot in the rotation. 
4. Shaun Marcum (RHP) – I’m not sold on Marcum, as I feel he gets by more on the command of his average stuff than anything else.  That doesn’t mean he can’t be an effective fourth starter, it just means don’t expect him to be lights out.  Last year is probably the best case scenario for him.
5. Jesse Litsch (RHP) – Litsch is an average fifth starter that depends on his defense to help him pitch effectively. 

Bullpen

• B.J. Ryan (Closer) – Ryan’s injury and subsequent Tommy John Surgery were probably a prime example of some of the worst
• Jeremy Accardo (Setup Man) – The fact that the Jays were able to get him for a declining Shea Hillenbrand amounts to Highway Robbery.  Accardo will likely be moving back to the setup role, as it appears that Ryan will be ready at the start of the season.
• Casey Janseen (RHP) – Janseen is likely going to remain in the pen as the primary 7th inning man, a role that he succeeded in last season, though the Jays have made note that they haven’t given up on him as a starter.
• Gustavo Chacin (LHP) – I’m not sure why Chacin is still on the roster, but it looks like he’ll remain in the bullpen as a swingman unless Litsch or someone else plays their way out.
• Jason Frasor (RHP) - Only as good as his command takes him.
• Brandon League (RHP) – League failed to establish himself as a setup man last season, but he still has a lot of use as a middle reliever, with the chance to setup later.
• Scott Downs (LHP) - Dominant lefty reliever completes the pen.

Starting Lineup

1. Reed Johnson (LF) – Johnson was effective as a leadoff man in 2006, but injuries killed his season last year and resulted in the lack of effectiveness.  Johnson will likely share time with Matt Stairs this season.
2. Lyle Overbay (1B) - Not a great power hitter, Overbay has at least done a decent job of getting on base before injuries hit.
3. Vernon Wells (CF) - A disappointment, Wells needs to bounce back from a terrible year at the plate.  With the departure of Glaus, a lot more is riding on Wells' ability to drive in runs.
4. Frank Thomas (DH) - Still a capable masher, Thomas will see the bulk of at bats at DH.  It looks like his health issues are behind him, but keep in mind he is older and will need regular rest. 
5. Alex Rios (RF) - Rios is rapidly turning into a solid all around player.  He's able to hit for power and a decent average and isn't a slouch on the basepaths either.  He's a great right fielder.  All in all, here is one long term commitment I wouldn't mind the Jays making.
6. Scott Rolen (3B) – Rolen is now in the fold and frankly, this is a bad trade.  There is a difference between "passionate" and "high maintenence."  Rolen is the later.  He's a decent defender, but there is no guarnatee that he'll stay healthy, especially now that he's playing on turf.
7. Gregg Zaun (C) – Zaun is rapidly declining as a catcher.  The only thing he really can do now is hit lefties.
8. Aaron  Hill (2B) - A nifty second baseman, Hill should be on an All Star squad in the near future.  His defensive value will help make up for the questionable signing up next...
9. David Eckstein (SS) - The Blue Jays are betting that Eckstein and Rolen will bring in some of that "gritty" atmosphere from St. Louis.  Eckstein is old, not a great bet to stay healthy and can't hit.  That spells winner!

Bench

• John McDonald (SS) - A defensive shortstop, McDonald will likely spell Eckstein late in games.
• Matt Stairs (UTIL) - There is still some life in that bat, as Stairs enjoyed one of his best seasons last year.  You'll see him pop up all around the diamond, spelling Johnson, Overbay and Thomas when necessary.
• Rod Barajas (C) - Barajas signs up with the very team he spurned last season.  Regardless of my personal feeligns of Barajas, he may have at least another solid year left in him.  All he needs is the chance to sieze it.
• Marco Scutaro (INF) – Scutaro may wind up beating out Eckstein for the starting gig at short this season.  Scutaro can play short and second and has a bit of pop to his bat.  But that's really about all he can do. 

Minor League Notables

• Curtis Thigpen (C) – Thigpen did well enough in limited action last season that he’ll likely be the starter come 2009.  While he’ll likely spend the year in the minors, should injuries decimate
• Ricky Romero (LHP) - Famously picked ahead of Troy Tulowitzski, Romero may be ready to contribute at the end of the season.  His ceiling is a Number Four starter.

Final Thoughts

This is really Toronto’s last shot at contending, as this team was built to win now.  After this season, there will be a lot of people leaving the organization via free agency and Toronto lacks the major pieces in the farm other than Travis Snider that will  help out long term.  Even then, unless Toronto gets the benefit of a lot of injuries among their division mates, they are, at best, the third best team in the division.

Final Prediction - 3rd Place, American League East. 

I know I may be overreacting to the loss of B.J. Ryan to Tommy John Surgery, but you have to admit that the loss of the Jays closer kills Toronto's chances to compete in the always competitive AL East.

Ryan was the best closer in the league last year and showed dominance against the Red Sox and Yankees, two teams with a lot of left handed hitters and was all but unbeatable for much of the year.  And with the Blue Jays rotation and bullpen thin already, Toronto needed Ryan healthy in order to keep the pen together.

Now it's all gone to hell.

Jason Frasor is the temporary closer, though Jeremy Accardo may soon challenge him for the job.  The Jays have little in the farm system to deal and what was once their most valuable trade commodity, Vernon Wells, is locked up for the long haul.

So what do the Jays do?

They have Alex Rios, a excellent young outfielder that can play centerfield that could net prospects as well as free up a place for Adam Lind full time once Reed Johnson comes back, but such a move would leave the Jays shorthanded in the short term.  The rotation is a mess, largely because the Jays were outbid for their few free agent targets and have tried to rebuild a rotation mainly out of retreads and has beens.

The reality is that this team may have to blow itself up and compete for next year, as the pitching trade market is shallow and expensive. 

Aside from Rios, would could net a decent young pitcher and a average position player, the Jays could also move Troy Glaus, who is drawing interest around the league from teams needing another bat in the lineup.  Glaus can still capably handle third base and still has plenty of power, despite his nagging injuries.  The main sticking point is that Glaus has three years left on his deal AND a full no trade clause.  Hence, the Jays would have to hammer out a compromise with Glaus just to get him to waive the no trade. 

If they really want a Kings Ransom's worth of prospects, they could consider listening to offers for Roy Halladay, much as the Astros did when they were listening for offers for Roy Oswalt last year.  Offering up Halladay would generate a lot of buzz around baseball and would prompt many clubs to dip into their systems for the necessary pieces to make a offer.

Or, if the Jays are really willing to continue to compete, they could simply announce that they are willing to be partners in a salary dump, much as the Yankees did when they traded for Bobby Abreu and Corey Lidle last season and the result was that they got impact players in exchange for some average prospects.  Some teams willing to shed large contracts, such as the Giants with Armando Benitez, the Mariners with Jeff Weaver, the Rockies for some combination of Josh Fogg and Byung Hyun Kim, or the Nationals with Chad Cordero (a stretch, but not a large one) could make a deal for meager prospects in exchange for having the salary relief.  However, the result would be damaging in the long run as the Jays payroll would skyrocket and the impact on the bottom line might not be much.  Plus, team's may not be eager to deal with GM J.P. Riccardi, in light of the recent story that he deliberately lied about Ryan's injury in Spring Training to keep the injury a secret.

Whatever the result, the Blue Jays are a lesser team now that their closer has gone down.  And instead of competing for the division with the Red Sox or the Yankees, the Jays may instead find themselves competing to stay out of the gutter with the Orioles and Devil Rays.

Friday Morning Closer

Here’s my three-pitch outing for the day.

Carlos Beltran All Over Again

A rumor appeared earlier this week that Vernon Wells had told Blue Jays' management that he had no intention of signing a contract extension to stay in Toronto.  J.P. Ricciardi went on the offensive, calling the origin of the rumor, Keith Law, an ####, though at this point of the season, Ricciardi would do better trying to avoid a meltdown in Canada, especially after the ugly incident with Ted Lilly.  But, all that aside, the Jays would do well in trading Wells.  He has faced public criticism from J.P. Ricciardi in terms of performance at times, despite the fact that Wells has put up MVP caliber numbers this year.  Plus, it’s never a good sign when said player hasn’t made much of an attempt to re-sing with a team before free agency, indicating the lack of interest or the fact that he may be a Scott Boras client (keep an eye on this situation, as Boras is notorious for stealing clients before free agency.)

Wells has one year remaining on the five-year deal he signed in spring training of 2003 and will earn just $5.6 million in 2006, after which he'll be eligible for free agency.  He’ll be 29.  With centerfielders having high prices lately (it’s expected that Wells could receive a similar contract to that of Carlos Beltran), the Blue Jays have almost no shot on keeping him, thanks to the fact that the Blue Jays will experience a salary crunch in 2008, when the salaries of A.J. Burnett, Roy Halladay, B.J. Ryan, and Troy Glaus all start escalating.   And this is after the Jays made the trades of Scott Schoeneweis (to Cincinnati) and Eric Hinske (to Boston), saving a whopping $5 million (yes, that’s sarcasm.)

If the Jays are willing to go for it all next season and go guns blazing for possibly their only chance to contend for a World Series, then they should go for it and play next season with Wells.  They’ll receive two first round draft picks if he signs elsewhere, which is more than they got when Carlos Delgado signed with the Marlins.

As for who Wells could sign with, there isn’t exactly a shortage of teams that he can go to.  Wells is a solid middle of the order threat who plays some mean defense. 

There will be no shortage of teams interested in Wells, a middle-of-the-order bat and plus defensive center fielder who'll hit the market in the middle of his offensive peak. Texas and Houston are likely to have interest because they might be able to sign him to an extension before he hits free agency, and neither team has a solid incumbent in center fielder.   Here is a list of the teams in the order that will pursue Wells, if he’s placed on the block.

Texas Rangers – Wells is from Arlington and is good friends with Ranger shortstop Michael Young.  The two have desired to be on the same team for some time and with Young not going anywhere (Texas is going to give him the large contract he deserves) Texas is the best place for him.  Texas is unlikely to sign Gary Matthews Jr., who is peaking just when free agency is looming, and is far from a proven talent.  Carlos Lee would like to remain a Ranger, but the Rangers have a contingency plan by sticking Nelson Cruz into right field and moving Mark DeRosa to left field.  Wells makes a lot of sense to the Rangers, but if Toronto insists on gutting the Rangers in terms of pitching, Texas will pass on a deal.

Houston Astros – Houston could use some more offense, and have the pitching prospects to send to Toronto for Wells.  However, the Astros have several needs to fill in terms of offense.  Morgan Ensberg needs to be brought back to his old self and the Astros have options in the outfield that could be used.  Luke Scott has impressed many and top prospect Hunter Pence is also another option to use as well.  Toss in Chris Burke, Willy Taveras, and Jason Lane and the Astros could cobble together a pretty nice little outfield.  And that’s not including Aubrey Huff, who will probably be re-signed.  If anything, the Astros need more offense out of the catching and shortstop position, though Adam Everett’s defense in a way makes up for the lack of hitting.

Los Angeles Dodgers – I could see this happening since the Dodgers have enough talent in the farm system to make a deal for Wells.  It would definitely rank as one of the most powerful outfields in the National League and the Dodgers could part with some prospects.  But I’m not sure what arts could be swapped in terms of pitching, which is what the Jays need.

Los Angeles Angels – Juan Rivera is a good bench player that’s experiencing a hot year and Darin Erstad, Chone Figgins, and Garret Anderson are not or no longer impact players.  The Angels make a lot of sense in that Wells gives the Angels a big bat to hit behind Vlad Guerrero, but any deal would requite the Angels to give up Ervin Santana and possibly top shortstop prospect Erick Aybar, plus another minor leaguer.  GM Bill Stoneman showed no desire to make a deal for another pair of impact players, Carlos Lee and Miguel Tejada.  It’s likely that he’ll object to the price the Jays will ask for.

Seattle Mariners – Could make a play, but the pieces don’t line up for well enough for them to make a deal.  The Mariners at the moment have a pair of centerfielders that they could plug and play, with Jeremy Reed and Adam Jones, both of which are young and could be serviceable.  Plus, the Mariners I think are more likely to pursue another workhorse pitcher that can eat innings long enough for the bullpen to come in. 

Boston Red Sox – Has the money to give Wells a lucrative extension and Wells is similar to a player the Red Sox pursued in the off-season, Andruw Jones.  However, there isn’t enough pitching options to send back to Boston to make things work, plus I doubt that the Jays would be willing to ship Wells within the division, where they would see him 19 times a year.

St. Louis Cardinals – The Cardinals would get Wells, who would more than replace Jim Edmond’s in center and they have the money to do it.  However, the Cardinals have many other needs in the off-season.  Almost the entire rotation is entering free agency, with only Carpenter and Anthony Reyes returning.  The Cardinals don’t have any ready talent to plug in the rotation, plus the offense in St. Louis is lacking in many other areas, namely catcher, Left AND Right field as well as second base.  The Cardinals have to solve these other problems before trying to pursue Wells, who is a luxury.

Colorado Rockies – A team that would be awesome if they brought in Wells.  The Rockies had been shopping around for a centerfielder at the deadline.  If the Rockies could land Wells, not only would they have a largely improved outfield defense with Wells in center and Holliday in left, but they would have one of the strongest middle of the lineup threats with Holliday, Wells, and Helton batting 3, 4 & 5.  The Rockies could do it if they’re willing to spend some smart money for once, as well as trade some of their more expendable prospects.  But again, the Rockies also would need to send back one of their better starters, which would kill any deal.  In all honesty, I think the Rockies would pass and go after an improvement at shortstop.  Julio Lugo would be a nice fit.

As you can see, there are several good fits for Wells in baseball.  But, depending on Toronto’s demands, a trade could get killed with all of the above teams.  As far as who could be the favorites, it would be the Texas teams followed by the Los Angeles Teams.

Buying Barry – Part Two

The other day, I went down the list of teams that will likely be going after Barry Zito.  I went through the league, eliminating the teams that I thought had no chance, and whittles the list down to five.  Here’s the final detailed analysis of who will sign Barry, why, and why the team may not get him.

Los Angeles (NL) – Zito is from the LA area and with his work in music could decide to settle in LA, where he would not only be returning to his hometown, but would also be close to numerous record companies in his side business.  Zito would fit in great in that lineup, providing some diversity to a lineup that has Brad Penny and Derek Lowe.  He also wouldn’t have to have the pressure of being an ace.  Plus, in that ballpark, Zito could be masterful and possibly become a Cy Young contender once again.  But, with large commitments already given to Penny and Lowe, plus several arms in the farm system needing a chance, LA might be priced out of range

Chicago (NL) – The Cubs need some pitching, but I'm wondering if they'll make the jump for Zito.  He's going to be expensive and the Cubs seem to be looking toward signing Juan Pierre long term.  The Cubs do have the money, with Wood's and Maddux's large contracts off the books, but I don't think Zito has pitched at Wrigley.  How well would he do with all those funky wind currents that inhabit the area?

Boston - Boston needs a lot of help in terms of the rotation.  Schilling has only one year left.  Beckett has been a disaster this year.  Lester isn't ready and Papelbon isn't due to become a starter for at least another year.  Zito could help be an option, but it should be noted that Fenway isn't very kind to lefty pitchers, which Lester has found out rather painfully.

Texas - Zito has always done well in Texas and would form a solid one-two punch with him and Millwood, plus the possibility of Padilla and Eaton in the mix.  However, Zito has never let a draft day insult from Texas, who refused to give him an extra $50,000 on his signing bonus, go.  Plus, he has little interest in pitching in Texas.  Thus, despite

New York (NL) - Zito's old pitching coach is with the Mets and the Mets certainly will have the money to go after.  There is a definate need here for Zito, as the Mets have little to count on in their rotaiton aside from Pedro Martinez and his gimpy leg and the ageless Tom Glavine, who seems to be battling injuries back just long enough to reach 300 wins.  With only Mike Pelfrey in the system and the rather unremarkable Alay Soler, Zito would fare well here, especially in a pitchers park.  I think the Mets will ultimately lose out to the next team, but will make them pay dearly for it.

New York (AL) - Ultimately, I do think that the Yankees will win over Zito, as they not only have a pair of former teammates in Johnny Damon and Jason Giambi to help their cause, but they'll also have a nice tidy amount of cash to go to work with.  They'll have Mussina's large contract off the books and they'll also be losing the Randy Johnson contract after next year as well, along with Gary Sheffield's as well.  Hence, they could give Zito a rather vanilla starting amount before kicking in his larger money after Johnson is gone.  Do I like the fact that Zito would be in New York.  No.  But I suppose it was inevitable.

Canseco Watch!!!!

In other Canseco Related News, Nine Yards Entertainment has optioned the rights to produce a film version of his book "Juiced: Wild Times, Rampant 'Roids, Smash Hits and How Baseball Got Big".  Canseco will be listed as a producer on the film.

Kipp Marcus, who was last seen as an extra on the movie Jason Goes To Hell,  has been hired to adapt the book.  Former Saved By The Bell Star Mario Lopez is rumored to be the favorite to play Canseco himself.

Does this movie sound like a train wreck waiting to happen?  Hell yes.  Will I see it?

Hell Yes!

Have a great weekend everyone.

On The Block:  Vernon Wells

One of the more unusual situations that is going on, here’s another case of having too much o####ood thing.

Why He’s On The Block:  Why would the Jays, who are in the thick of the AL East race, trade away their centerfielder?  Possibly because Wells is entering in his fifth year of service time before he hits free agency.  Because of the rising price of centerfielders (thanks a lot Carlos Beltran), the Jays, who have spent oodles of cash this past off-season, might not be able to afford him.  Another reason is that he pissed off a few of the heads in the organization, namely GM J.P. Riccardi, when he stated that he would love to reunite with close friend and former teammate Michael Young in Arlington.  Riccardi has stated that he won’t let Wells leave without something in return.  And if the Jays suddenly got destroyed in the standings by the Yankees and Red Sox, plus injuries, Riccardi may be inclined to deal Wells if he can get pitching in return, as he’s currently taking a bath in the fiasco that is the A.J. Burnett signing.

Negotiable:  Oh hell no.  Wells is going to cost a lot.  Like a couple of young pitchers and an outfielder.  And possibly a Player to be named.

What He Offers:  Wells has re-emerged as a premier outfielder in the American League.  So, with that in mind, here’s what he offers:

·          Plus:  Lots of power.

·          Plus:  Quality defender.

·          Plus:  Quick on the bases.

·          Plus:  Can hit for high averages.

·          Minus:  Going to be expensive to sign long term.

·          Minus:  Impatient at the plate.

He Stay Or Will He Go:  90%-10% on him staying, but things could change if the Jays fall out of the race.  Because of the large contracts they obtained, Wells could be dealt to not only give relief, but to also replenish a rather lackluster farm system that has produced little major league talent in the past few years.  With that in mind, let’s see where he could end up if the Jays quietly shop him.

·          Texas Rangers – 40%.   Texas would love to land the power hitting centerfielder and landing him could entice Michael Young to remain in Texas long term.  Texas could make a deal with the Blue Jays, sending Gary Matthews Jr. and starter Adam Eaton in exchange for Wells.  While the Jays could demand a bit more in return for two starting players, the Rangers are a logical solution as they have the most to offer in terms of talent that can help right now.

·          Chicago White Sox – 30%.  The White Sox want a more productive centerfielder, since Brian Anderson is struggling at the plate.  The White Sox could offer the Blue Jays a package of Anderson and Jon Garland or Brandon McCarthy, depending on whom the White Sox want more.  However, Anderson is a downgrade for the Blue Jays and neither Garland or McCarthy are able to provide equal value for the trade.

·          Los Angeles Dodgers – 20%.  The Dodgers would love to have Wells patrolling centerfield and they have more than enough talent in the farm system to make an attractive offer to the Jays.  However, the Dodgers don’t have anyone they could send back to the Jays that can make up for the loss of Wells, making it hard to consider them for a deal.

·          Los Angeles Angels of De Longpre Park – 10%.   The Angels have a lot of talent on hand to make a deal with and would love to replace Darin Erstad with the versatile centerfielder.  However, the Angels don’t have anything they could send back to replace Wells’ production, so it’s likely that they won’t land him if he’s dangled on the block.

End Result – Retained by the Blue Jays…for this season.