Adam Dunn's time is running out, Rowand in DC, Jack Wilson heading to Detroit, More Trouble For Matt Bush, and the end of Gerald Laird's Ranger career, all coming up!

Adam Dunn May Be Done In Cincinnati

Adam Dunn may be in his last season with the Reds.   It's not because of the strikeouts, or because of the Reds' woes, or even the fact that the Reds want to cut payroll to help supplement other areas of the staff.

It's because of Jay Bruce and Joey Votto.

Bruce is a talented Reds prospect is nearly ready after jumping several levels in the minor leagues and now holding his own in Triple A.  He's got power, a solid eye, a capable defender and a good arm, all things that the Reds could use.  As far as who he projects to be, Larry Walker is a common comparison.

Josh Hamilton has already established himself as the Reds' centerfielder, with Griffey holding down right field, which leaves left field as the only place for the uber-talented Bruce to start.

First base isn't an option either, beucase of Votto, a solid hitting first baseman that plays better defense than Dunn at first and blocks him.

Without the DH rule, that would render Dunn a very expensive bench player at $12 million.

However, the Reds won't let him leave without them getting something valuable back.  It's possible that the Reds could pick up the option and look to trade Dunn this off-season, hopefully for much less than they asked the Angels when they looked into getting him.

A trade with the Rangers is possible because of the Rangers' needs for a first baseman/outfielder.  However, the Rangers won't give up much for a one year rental, unless Dunn consents to an extension, which won't happen with free agent prices skyrocketing.  Nor would the Rangers part with valueable prospects in return, in particular Eric Hurley and Taylor Teagarden, two of Texas' top prospects that the Reds would demand in return.

San Francisco may be a fit, as the Giants will need a power source on the team with Bonds not likely to return, however, prospects will be hard to exchange because the Giants have none and they will not consent to trading Jonathan Sanchez, a talented lefty that may be able to start that the Reds would target in return.

Were I to hazard a guess, the best fit for Dunn could be the Yankees, who need a first baseman not named Andy Phillips or god knows what else they've been running out there.  They have the prospects to spare for Dunn, as they have several starting pitchers that could succeed in the National League that are of no use to them, and it wouldn't be a long term commitment, as the Yankees would be able to let Dunn go in order to pursue Braves first baseman Mark Teixeira.

Should be an interesting off-season in Cincinnati.

Monroe For Wilson Swap In The Works?

Detroit wants to find an NL club that is willing to take Craig Monroe, who was DFA'd, in parts of keeping him out of the AL. 

Pittsburgh has been interested in Monroe in the past and would be willing to trade shortstop Jack Wilson if the Tigers pick up all of the $14.35 million remaining on the final two years of his three-year, $20.2 million contract.

The Tigers inquired about Wilson and nearly had a deal done for him at the deadline before talks fell apart becaue the Pirates asked for...Craig Monroe.

Surely the two clubs could work something out.

Rowand To DC?

Phillies center fielder Aaron Rowand is a free agent after the season, and while he hasn't revealed much on what he's doing after the season, he does like Washington, whom he feels is a up and coming team and will be a contender in a couple of years. 

Rowand would be a solid addition to Washington and would be marketed as a face of the franchise and would be a team leader there. 

However, I don't see it happening.

Washington is already experiencing a logjam in the outfield, with Wily Mo Pena, Ryan Church, Nook Logan, Austin Kearns and potentially Dmitri Young all vying for playing time.

Furthermore, Rowand will likely recieve more lucrative offers from his three top suitors, the Rangers, the Phillies, and the White Sox (not in that order.)

So as nice an idea it is, it won't happen.

More Trouble For Matt Bush

The Padres have confirmed that Matt Bush, the first overall pick in 2004, will need Tommy John Surgery on his pitching elbow, saying he should be good to go again in a year. 

This is only the latest setback for Bush, who has been injury prone and under performed by the Padres, who took him instead of Tigers Ace Justin Verlander (fear of a holdout) and then Florida State shortstop Stephen Drew, who the scouts recommended to take, but were overruled because of cost.  Also passed up was Jered Weaver, who fell to the Angels.

Bush was converted in June to pitching and has posted good results until recently, when in his Single-A debut for Fort Wayne, Indana on Thursday, Bush threw a pitch and reportedly ruptured a ligiment in his elbow and left. 

It's unfortunate because Bush actually seemed to respond to the change, throwing a upper 90's fastball along with a promising curve. 

Oh well.

Gerald Laird Is Available

Gerald Laird, the current Rangers catcher, is likely headed out of Arlington and headed elsewhere.

Laird likely was headed out anyhow, with the Rangers already having highly regarded catching prospect Taylor Teagarden coming on nicely, plus catcher Max Ramirez coming over in the Kenny Lofton deal.

However, with the acquisition of Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Laird's fate was sealed earlier.  Salty has a solid bat, but it profiles better at catcher and ultimately, that's where he will remain, as the Rangers have put an emphasis at looking elsewhere for a first baseman.  That means that Laird will be out of a job and likely out of Texas.

Laird should be very highly coveted, as there are very few young backstops available on the market.  There will likely be interest from several teams, including Detroit, Pittsburgh, the Mets and Yankees, as well as the Cubs, who inquired about Laird shortly after the trade of Teixeira was made.

See you all tomorrow for the Rangers Report!

Lots of responses to the Blue Jays and Pavano posts yesterday.  Love it!

Let's see where the hat wants to go today....

Okay cuziffer.  Quit your ####ing.  The hat picked your Brewers.

Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee entered 2006 off of the high of breaking even at 81-81, hoping to parlay that success into a winning record and a possible playoff berth.

That didn’t happen, thanks to a rash of injuries that ran across the Brewers like wildfire, gutting the offense and the pitching staff.

However, the core of that team remains intact, as most of the young Brewers are now a year more experienced and a lot savvier about what lies ahead of them.  Doug Melvin was also able to add further young talent to the team by trades of veterans, plus the addition of a big free agent signing.  Will that translate into wins?  Let’s check it out.

Starting Rotation

1. Ben Sheets (RHP) – When Sheets is healthy, he’s easily one of the top five starters in baseball.  Key word is, healthy.  I think he’ll be fine this year, as he certainly missed enough time last season that he should be healthy.  The Brewers hope I’m right, as a healthy Sheets could be enough to push him right over the top.
2. Chris Capuano (LHP) – Capuano is developing into a solid number two behind Sheets.  Capuano has good stuff, as his fastball, slider and changeup are all solid pitches and he gets good movement off of all of them.  He didn’t get much run support, hence the losing record and he gets killed by right-handed hitters.  Much of this is the result of leaving pitches high in the zone   If he can correct that, he should see his success increase, though some more run support would be nice as well.
3. Jeff Suppan (RHP) – Suppan is a solid innings eater that adds depth to the Brewers’ lineup.  However, the key to Suppan’s success has been and always will be the defense behind him, as he relies on groundballs to help him get outs.  Hence, for Suppan to succeed, he’ll need a little help from his friends, but he’ll also need to help himself by relying a little more on his stuff. 
4. Dave Bush (RHP) – Bush was obtained from the Lyle Overbay deal, and so far he’s looking like the biggest steal of the trade.  Bush’s best pitch is a slow curve, and he also features a low 90s fastball with good movement, plus a changeup that tends to be hit or miss.  The changeup is a big reason why lefties hit .289 against him.  Still, he’s an excellent young starter that should help keep the Brewers in games.
5. Claudio Vargas (RHP) – Acquired in the trade for Doug Davis, Vargas is a flamethrower that can hit 97 and partners that pitch with a hammer curve.  However, Vargas has two major problems: durability and the lack of a breaking pitch.  Vargas needs a third pitch to sustain any success, plus he’s a six-inning pitcher that flames out once he reaches the 7th.  Still, as a fifth starter, should be fine.

Bullpen

• Francisco Cordero (Closer) – Cordero was excellent after coming over to Milwaukee (1.69 ERA and 16 saves).  However, Cordero is very inconsistent at times, which is the reason why he lost the closer’s job in Texas.  I think he’ll be solid enough to go for 30 saves, but expect Milwaukee to be somewhat worried during the times he gets on the mound.
• Derrick Turnbow (Setup Man) – Turnbow pitched well enough in the first half to earn a spot on the All-Star team but then collapsed spectacularly, blowing eight saves in '06 and a 13.06 ERA in his final 27 appearances, leading to the addition of Cordero in the Carlos Lee trade.  Turnbow will still setup and he should be suitable, but the question of whether or not he can handle the rigors of closing will be an issue if Cordero starts to meltdown like he did with Texas.
• Brian Shouse (LHP) – A lefty specialist, Shouse tends to get pounded by right-handers. 
• Edward Campusano (LHP) – Selected from the Cubs in the Rule V Draft, Campusano is a decent lefty reliever that is a strikeout machine, thanks to a good fastball and slider combo.  He’s likely going to be groomed into the successor for Brian Shouse.
• Matt Wise (RHP) – Wise is another capable reliever that can help keep a lead as well as work for multiple innings.
• Greg Aquino (RHP) – Aquino is another solid setup man that also can serve as a emergency closer, as he served in the role back in 2004.
• Jose Capellan (RHP) – Capellan was a fairly reliable option last year, leading the club with 61 appearances.  He did give up far too many homers for the rotation to feel safe (11 in 71.2 IP).

Starting Lineup

1. Bill Hall (CF) – Hall makes the transition from shortstop to center field, reminding many of when Robin Yount did the move.  Hall does seem to have the speed and range to do the move, and his bat should translate very well there.  He’s got the best chance to succeed at leadoff, so he’ll bat there according to my chart.
2. Rickie Weeks (2B) – Weeks has all the talent in the world to be a masher in the lineup, but injuries cut short a promising Rookie campaign.  Weeks has a powerful, quick bat as well as oodles of speed to make him a threat once he’s on base.  The big problem is that he’s rather poor as far as defense goes at second, though to his credit he’s trying to improve.  He’s likely going to bat second.
3. Prince Fielder (1B) – Fielder has the best power presence in the lineup and put up an excellent rookie campaign last year.  Fielder carried the Brewers through much of the year last year as one player after another went down for the count, which was unfair to him and may have been a cause for all the strikeouts.  Still, he set a franchise rookie record with 28 homers and led the team with 81 RBIs, while showing some growth as a hitter.  He’ll be batting third in the lineup.
4. Corey Hart (RF) – I’m not sure if he wears his sunglasses at night, but he certainly earned a full-time job after hitting eight homers in the final two months of the season.  He should be a little better than average over the course of a season, as the power is there for him to be a 25 home run threat.
5. Corey Koskie (3B) – Koskie has good left handed power and can play well at third. However, he’s far from a lock at this position, as the Brewers may decide to shop him to allow Ryan Braun to take his spot in the lineup.
6. Johnny Estrada (C) - Estrada was sent to the Brewers in a six-player trade that sent Doug Davis to the Diamondbacks.  Oddly enough, this is the second time Estrada has been booted from a team when a younger, equally talented player rose up to take his place.  Weird.  In any case, Estrada brings a solid bat to the Brewers lineup and is a solid defender.  Provided that the rest of the team stays healthy, Estrada will give more depth in the back of the order.
7. Geoff Jenkins (LF) – Jenkins is less than thrilled with the attempt to platoon him.  While there is no doubt that his offense is average to say the least, the fact that lefties murdered him last season makes it hard for him to make an argument against the move.  He may be traded, but at the moment, I have him as the starter.
8. J.J. Hardy (SS) – Hardy is pretty decent at shortstop as far as his defense is concerned.  However, it’s the bat that draws the most questions, making this move seem a lot like a gamble.  The Brewers are hoping that Hardy will translate his minor league successes into production at the majors, or else they’ll be hunting for a shortstop come June.

Bench

• Tony Graffanino (INF) – Graffanino is able to play all four infield positions while providing a solid bat. He isn’t a really major power bat, but he’s got doubles power, works the count and has some of the softest hands in the game.  With J.J. Hardy remaining a injury risk, he’ll get playing time.
• Craig Counsell (INF) – Counsell was also brought in to provide some backup in case the injuries that took out both Hardy and Weeks decide to attack again.  Counsell lost the starting job in Arizona to Stephen Drew after an injury and after it became clear he wouldn’t return, he went back to Milwaukee.  Counsell is another fading player, but he can still hit for average and can play the entire infield as well.
• Kevin Mench (OF) – Mench is a outfielder that can hit for good power and, to be honest, should be hitting in the middle of the order.  However, he’s a very streaky hitter and hasn’t been able to put it together.  He’s recently stated that he refuses to be part of a platoon.  Unfortunately, it looks like he’ll be a part of one whether he likes it or not.  There’s a very real possibility he could be traded.  Or the real possibility that he will be kidnapped by Cuziffer and kept in a secret bunker beneath his house until the end of the 2007 season.
• Damian Miller (C) – Miller is settling back into a backup role, which is good for him at this point in his career.  He should be a very good backup and will play mentor to Estrada.
• Gabe Gross (OF) – Gross has a lot of potential to be a starter, but at the moment he’s buried beneath the outfield logjam.  That could change if the outfield corners open up, but he should be good off the bench.

Down On The Farm…

The Brewers have drafted well for the most part since Doug Melvin took over the team.  There is a lack of major league ready talent thanks to the recent graduations, but there are some players that could make an impact, as well as players that will be arriving in the future.  The most frustrating issue of the system is the lack of progress of 2004 first rounder Mark Rogers, who hasn’t gotten beyond the low minors thanks to injuries.

• Ryan Braun (3B) – Braun is the Brewers’ best positional prospect at the moment.  He’s got great pitch recognition and good bat speed that allows him to hit the ball to all fields and has good doubles power as well.  He’s still learning how to play third, however, and his arm is inaccurate.  But the bat is almost ready and Braun may be needed sooner rather than later, as the Brewers need a power bat to hit behind Prince Fielder.  He could knock either Geoff Jenkins and Kevin Mench out at left field or knock Koskie out at third.  I think it’ll be the latter.
• Yovani Gallardo (RHP) – Gallardo isn’t mentioned with the likes of Homer Bailey or Phil Hughes, but he belongs up there.  He dominated High A and Double this season, much as Bailey and Hughes did and his stuff is impeccable.  He’s got a low 90’s fastball plus a hard slider and a plus curve.  He’s got a rather benign changeup, but he’s got enough tools to where he could step in the Brewers rotation if one of the starters implodes or if Ben Sheets decides to make the disabled list a favorite place to visit again this year.  I love Gallardo.  He's a badass.
• Tony Gywnn Jr (OF) – Junior Gywnn isn’t quite the player that his father was, but he’s an excellent player in his own right.  He’s extremely athletic with great instincts in the outfield and has loads of speed to go with a nice left handed swing and an excellent eye at the plate.  He won’t hit for much power, but the Brewers think he has enough doubles power to make him more than a one trick pony.  Though many have him making the team, I seriously doubt that the Brewers will have him in the majors as a bench player, having him accrue service time, when he could get regular playing time in the minors.
• Lanyce Nix (OF) – Nix was given all the chances to try and prove himself to Texas, but he squandered all of them.  He’ll likely spend the early part of the season in the minors, but I’m not sure what his future is going to be now.

In Conclusion

I actually think that the Brewers could win this division.  However, I like the Astros’ offense and their bullpen a little more, which I think will be more than enough to carry their pitching staff into the post-season.  However, Milwaukee will mount a very strong challenge to the Astros and, should their starters implode and the Brewers’ collective health remain steady, they could win the division in an upset.

Final Standings:  Second in the National League Central