The Rangers could have made a better offer than what the Twins actually got for Johan Santana.
While the Twins ultimately got a decent package of high upside prospects in Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber, Deolis Guerra, and Kevin Mulvey, the Rangers had the prospects to pull off a trade. However, I won’t tell you what the trade would have been, though I can tell you it would have kicked the #### out of the Mets offer.
Santana wouldn’t have approved a trade here.
First of all, this isn’t exactly the best ballpark for a flyball pitcher to flourish. Second of all, Santana, due to his no trade clause, would have vetoed a deal, as he had tremendous leverage over where he could go.
While Santana would have given the Rangers a top of the rotation starter, there simply was no way he would have approved a trade here, even if the Rangers offered six players, many of them good ones (#### it. RHP Eric Hurley, CF Brandon Boggs, SS Joaquin Arias, 2B German Duran, C Max Ramirez and CF Marlon Byrd), the Rangers wouldn’t even have the opportunity to negotiate an extension with him. It just wasn’t feasible.
On A Side Note…
Oakland, going back to the Santana deal one more time, probably had a better package in return than the Twins got for Santana. While I’m not high on the pitchers they received, Carlos Gonzalez should be a stud once he hits the big leagues and they got a hell of a masher in Chris Carter, who will be a beast once he comes up to the majors.
God I wish the Rangers could have gotten Carter. Stupid Otsuka….
Fearing Bedard In Seattle
I am going to fear Seattle’s rotation if and when the Bedard deal is done. While I should be happy about the fact that Seattle will be parting with some solid blue chippers, Bedard isn’t going to be a treat to face. In fact, matching up Millwood and Padilla against Hernandez and Bedard would be like sending you out to a gunfight with only a pair of pistols, while the enemy is firing bazookas. You have no chance (unless a rocket misfires, blowing up your opponent. Ah Doom, how I miss thee…)
Bringing Ryan Back A Complicated Affair
Nolan Ryan is apparently interested in the vacant Rangers’ presidency gig and Tom Hicks has been active in courting Ryan to return to the Rangers.
However, actually bringing Ryan back is going to be a lot of work.
For starters, Houston might not be willing to let Ryan go, as Drayton McLane may decide to expand Ryan's role in terms of player development and decisions. Plus, he enjoys the PR boom that Ryan gives the Astros, especially considering that he owns their Double and Triple A Franchises.
Which is another complications. Would the Rangers allow Ryan to keep his two minor league teams? Or would they force him to cede control of the franchises, likely to his sons Reese and Ried, if he's to be hired.
And if Ryan is indeed made President, how would that affect Jon Daniels' power. J.D. has pretty much acted pretty autonomous and if he were to lose control over some of the minor league and player development phases (which have been vastly improved since he took over), how would that hinder his ability to run the big league club?
I love Nolan, met him once (nice guy), but as much as I love him to come back to the Rangers, I don't know if the overall impact (non-economic) would be worth it.
Bad Job Of Roster Management
If you haven’t already seen, the Rangers designated Armando Galarraga for assignment a few days ago, likely in anticipation of a Marlon Byrd deal that isn’t going to happen.
My only question is why?
I know that the Rangers have some higher ceiling pitchers on the roster, but Galarraga has plenty of upside and could wind up being a Chad Qualls type reliever in a couple of years.
Why the designation?
If anyone deserved to be DFA”d, it was Nelson Cruz, who would have made it through waivers and would have been given a Spring Training Invite along with a minor league deal.
Instead, Galarraga gets the axe and he’ll likely get claimed on waivers by a team without 40 Man space, likely the Astros, who have room in their system and 40 for him.
Unless there is a trade coming in the next few days that we haven’t heard about, this isn’t a good move and one that’s likely to blow up in the faces of the Rangers. So far, there hasn't been word on him being claimed (8 days down, two to go.) I only hope that the Rangers' luck holds out.
One Year Later, Still Irritated At Rod Barajas
I'm still pissed at Rod Barajas.
You cost us one extra draft pick after booking from your original deal with the Jays, you ########.
So full of hate that, one year later, he signs with them anyway.
Grrr.....
Will post the Prospect Six Pack Later. I got to break something. Long day....
Now that the Santana deal is all but over, it's time to see what exactly will happen next.
I can tell you this much. A lot more things are going to fall into place now that the deal has been done.
Here's what is likely going to happen:
1. Bedard Deal Likely Going To Happen Soon
With the Santana deal likely gone, the Orioles should decide in the next couple of days whether or not to accept a deal from Seattle that will send Adam Jones and three or four prospects in exchange for their ace. It would be a good deal for the Orioles, who would gain a franchise centerfielder, more pitching depth with Chris Tillman likely headed in the deal, as well as a potential closer in George Sherill, all of whom are named in the deal. As for the Mariners, it's a lot of farm depth to give up, which I'd be hesitant to do for a palyer likely to test free agency in two years. And even then, there isn't a guarnatee that Bedard would put Seattle over the top with the Angels and their strong staff in the divison.
2. Final Decision On Sabathia To Be Made Soon
Look for also the Indians to decide once and for all on the fate of C.C. Sabathia, who is entering his walk year and likely looking for a contract similar to what Santana will get. Sabathia recently refused a 4 year, $70 million extension and wants a lot of money for a lot of years. While Sabathia is an excellent young pitcher, his condition habits have to give one pause. The union will also be pressuring Sabathia to hit free agency, due to their desire to increase player salaries all around. Personally, I think the Indians are going to ride out the year before seeing Sabathia likely sign with the Yankees, who covet Sabathia and asked the Indians about a trade midseason.
3. Remaining Free Agent Starters To Find Homes
Also, it's about now that we'll the remaining big free agent starters find homes. Bartolo Colon, Kyle Lohse, Livan Hernandez and others should have their phones ringing now that the Santana and Bedard dramas are nearing their respective ends. This may work out to the benefit of several teams, as Colon, Lohse and Hernandez have all been looking for multiple years in contracts. After having to wait for a while, they may be more willing to settle for fewer years.
4. Blame to Be Assigned In The Bronx
Now that the actually Santana trade has been agreed to, look for blame to be assigned among the Yankees staff.
Hank Steinbrenner will likely blame Brian Cashman for not wanting to pull the trigger on a deal that could have seen Santana in pinstripes, saying that while prospects are fine and good, acquiring a legitimate ace of the staff outwieghed any possible risk of said prospects coming back to haunt them.
Cashman will likely disagree, stating that the price in prospects was simply too high. However, when you consider that you were, essentially, sacrificng Chein Ming Wang, Melky Cabrera and what appears to be now Ian Kennedy for Santana, the sacrifice really should have been an easy one. Say yes.
The fighting will likely turn ugly and should provide further proof that Cashman is out of New York at the end of the year.
5. Crisp Situation Now Front Burner
Now that the Santana deal has been resolved, look for Boston to finally decide what to do with Coco Crisp.
While the entire Santana drama was playing out, many of the spots that were logical places for the Red Sox to send Crisp to addressed their centerfield needs via trade or free agency, resulting in a much smaller market for his services.
Now, really, there are two places where the Red Sox could concievably go to shop Crisp around, three if you count Oakland and their sudden dearth of prospects, two if you realize that Oakland has no intention of shopping any of them just now.
Minnesota is the place where, ironically, the Red Sox could ask if they're interested. The Twins, now in full fledged rebuilding mode, could offer back a bullpen arm, possibly Jesse Crain, though a package from Boston for Joe Nathan would be much more plausible.
The other place is Baltimore, which could use Crisp and has some minor league depth to deal from, if Boston would prefer a player that isn't as close to free agency and could develop into something promising.
Or the Red Sox could just hang onto Crisp, though that would likely result in a lot of resentment from Crisp, who wants to start. Say all you want about choosing to start for a bad team or being a fourth outfielder for a great one. Most people would still prefer a starting gig.
This could turn out ugly if nothing is resolved soon.
Coming up later today! My Super Bowl Spread Plans!!!!!!!!!!!!
TIme when I try to forecast who will get into the Hall of Fame.
And every year, I've been wrong except for last year, when no brainers Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken got in (I whiffed on Gossage twice already.)
No matter.
Here's this year's edition.
Cooperstown Locks
Rich "Goose" Gossage – This is the year Goose gets in. He got close last season, even with Ripkin and Gwynn on the ballot and will almost certainly make the hall of fame, barring any sort of mental lapse amongst the voters. There is no reason why it should have taken this long, but as I have said, I believe that Gossage’s years as a setup man may have hurt his case for the Hall of Fame.
Jim Rice – There’s been a lot of debate recently as to whether or not Rice truly is Hall of Fame worthy. Rice does have some good career averages, and he’s got 382 HR’s, though that isn’t good enough for a man with the reputation for a power hitter. His numbers were partially inflated by Fenway, but he did net a MVP award in 1978. He does get bonus points for being a slugger in a Pitcher’s Era, however and overall, with his support in Boston and much of the Eastern Seaboard, I say he gets in this year. I don’t agree with it, however.
Dark Horses
Bert Blyleven – A great pitcher, ranks fifth all time in strikeouts (3701), nine all time in shutouts, and 13th all time in innings. His career record is great (287-250) his ERA is solid (3.31) and has a career ERA of 2.47 in the post season. If he had better run support, he’d easily have over 300 wins. He should have been in a long time ago, but for some reason, voters are reluctant to admit him in, yet they are upset over why a lesser pitcher, Jack Morris, whom Blyleven laps in every category and is even better in the post-season than Morris, is not in. There’s been a rise of support for Blyleven. Unfortunately, it won’t be enough.
Tim Raines – Raines merits induction, as he was one of the best Leadoff Men in baseball for much of his career. He hit .294 lifetime, tallied 2605 hits, has a career on base percentage of .385, and scored 1571 times. People crack on his stolen bases, saying that he was afraid to drop his stolen base percentage when in reality, Raines stole bases only when necessary, not just to pad stats. He also walked more than he struck out. However, Raines won’t get his due, as people will again feel he wasn’t as good as Henderson, his rival as far as leadoff men are concerned, plus his cocaine use. Raines may have lasted even longer in baseball if he hadn’t played much of his career on the hard Astroturf in Montreal. I feel she should get in. The voters are divided so far.
Screwed
Lee Smith – A good closer, is number two on the All-Time Saves List (478), and truckload of innings logged in. His career ERA is good (3.03) and he was usually consistent. However, what kills Smith is that most people see him as a compiler and is regarded by many to be consistent, but not dominant. The fact that he only played on two playoff teams and was 0-2 with an 8.44 ERA in the postseason doesn’t help him much. Still, accumulating 478 saves is amazing (just ask Trevor Hoffman), but unfortunately, it’s looking more and more like Smith will be at the mercy of the Veteran’s committee and won’t be elected by the BBWAA.
Tommy John – Almost as good as Blyleven, in terms of Wins (288-231) and ERA (3.34), John would have been a lock if he had just won 300 wins. However, people don’t realize that had it not been for the procedure that now bears his name, he wouldn’t even be close to his numbers. John was a great pitcher for some time. Why he’s not in is beyond me.
Dave Concepcion – The last member of the Big Red Machine not in the Hall (not counting Pete Rose), Concepcion was probably one of the best shortstops of his time. Many remember him for his glove work, but his career averages (.267/.322/.357) and his 2326 hits aren’t enough to get him in. It’s possible that many could point to Ozzie Smith as a possible induction into the Hall of Fame from Concepcion, but unfortunately, I don’t think he’ll get in, leaving him as a option for the veteran’s committee.
Andre Dawson – Blessed with a long, steady career that lasted 21 seasons, Dawson tallied 438 homers, 2774 hits, 314 steals, and was the 1987 NL MVP. Dawson was a great defender at both right and centerfield and hit with good power. He didn’t walk much, which is why he’s got a #### OBP, but he does have some favorable stats to some Hall of Famers already in. He was also one of the classiest men to play the game, another reason why I like him, though that’s beside the point. But unfortunately, he's seen as a complier, and most likely won't be allowed in anytime soon, which sucks for him.
Alan Trammell – Trammell totaled 2,365 hits, 185 homers, 412 doubles, 236 steals and a World Series MVP to his name. Those are solid stats and should be Hall of Fame worthy when you consider that Trammell played in an era when shortstops were expected to defend, not him. However, shortly after Trammell retired, the rise of offensive shortstops, such as Ripken, Jeter, Garciaparra, Rodriguez and others have made his numbers look quite pedestrian when compared to how they will finish. Because of that, Trammell isn’t getting in, even though he probably should.
Harold Baines – Seemingly ageless, as he played for over 20 seasons, Baines is probably regarded as one of the best hitters in White Sox history. As a whole, he was a very good hitter for a very long time, with a career .289 Batting Average and totals of 2,866 hits and 384 home runs. He played on six postseason teams but never won a ring. Not at all shabby. However, Baines was a terrible defender and never had a monster season. He also never really took walks either, meaning he’s out.
The Hall of Very Good
Dave Parker – The Cobra has a lot of good credentials. He’s got 2712 hits, led the league three times in scoring, is in the top 30 of all time in doubles and was the 1978 NL MVP, three Gold Gloves. He also won two batting titles. Those are good numbers, but not great ones, and Parker’s cocaine use has turned off several of the more self righteous voters, which means Parker is likely going in that class of Very Good, but not Hall Worthy players.
Jack Morris – Morris is a somewhat lesser version of Tommy John. He has pitched well in the postseason, and averaged at least 14 wins per season. However, Morris has an ERA of 3.90 and going through some of his career numbers, many of his wins are the result of good run support and a strong defensive unit. I don’t think he should be allowed in, even though many of the old school media are pushing hard for him to go in. He’d easily be the worst Hall of Fame pitcher ever elected.
Mark McGwire – 500 Home Runs used to guarantee you admission into the hall of fame, but times have changed and McGwire has been made the posterboy of the era. It’s not fair, but unfortunately, it happens. He won’t get in, but will likely hang around the ballot. He could get in during his final year of eligibility.
Don Mattingly – One of the most popular Yankees in history, a nine-time Gold Glover, a six time All-Star, and the 1985 MVP. A good man and a great leader, who stuck with the Yankees through the lean years and retired just before all the fun started. Early in his career, Mattingly seemed like a lock, but lingering back problems would eventually claim his career. Again, as with another 80’s era first baseman, Will Clark, Mattingly had good career averages (.307-.358-.471), but his overall numbers (222 HR’s, 2153 Hits) aren’t enough to get him in, though he’ll be immortalized in Legends Park sooner or later. To put it bluntly, Yankee fans, let it go. Unfortunately, he’ll hang around for the next few years, making this a perennial comment.
Dale Murphy – Murphy has two MVP awards and 398 homers. But other than that, he's not Hall Worthy.
Chuck Finley – Finely made quite a few All-Star teams based on raw win totals alone, but his control was average and his ERA doesn’t fairly show that he could be god-awful a great deal. He did have a reputation as an innings eater, but other than that, what else can you say except that he’s a slightly above average pitcher who likely would be vastly overpaid if he played today and isn’t worthy of Hall of Fame consideration.
Robb Nen – A former Ranger Draft Pick, Nen was traded to Florida for Cris Carpenter (the bad one) and became one of the better closers in baseball, finishing his career with 314 saves, a 45-42 record, a career 2.98 ERA and a WHIP of 1.213. However, that’s not hall worthy, meaning Nen is out.
No Chance In Hell
Chuck Knoblauch – Knoblauch certainly looked like a Hall of Fame caliber player back when he was in Minnesota. However, a neurosis that affected his glovework and eventually his hitting ended his career. Many felt that the pressure of playing in New York finally got to him. However, the fact is that what’s done is done and in the end, Knoblauch doesn’t deserve to be bronzed in Cooperstown. His mention in the Mitchell Report will also mean he falls off the ballot.
Todd Stottlemyre–An okay pitcher for the most part, I remember him mostly from his brief time with the Texas Rangers. He shouldn’t be on here. Who screens these things?
Rod Beck –Sorry, I know Beck is very much beloved by many fans, but realistically, he had a 7 year run in which he was good, after which he flamed out spectacularly. This may be his first and only time you’ll see him on the ballot.
David Justice – Justice is going to be one and done on the ballot. He was good for a long time, but was never great. His numbers (1571 Hits, 305 HR, .279 Career BA) just aren’t special enough, though he’ll likely get credit for all of his playoff experience. But, to be quite honest, he just doesn’t belong on the ballot.
Travis Fryman – Fryman played for a long time, both in Detroit and in Cleveland, and was an All-Star five times, but for the most part he was just a solid contributor and nothing more.
Brady Anderson – Another solid contributor, nothing more, Anderson shouldn’t be on the ballot.
Shawon Dunston – Dunston had a decent start to his career, but injuries and ineffectiveness turned him into a very good bench player for the most part. He was also named as one of “Barry’s Guys” in the book Love Me, Hate Me, who defended Eric Davis, who was being berated by Bonds and the time, only to shut him up by grabbing Davis’ World Series ring and asking him “Have one of these?”
The Balance of Power just shifted in the American League West thans to the Dan Haren Trade.
First, The Arizona Side of the trade. Arizona gets a solid Number Two starter and sends several blocked prospects to Oakland in exchange for roster certainty. None of the players really had a chance of cracking Arizona's roster, save Chris Carter, and for the Diamondbacks, it's about winning now and worrying about the farm depth emptying out later.
Arizona's new lineup is likely the following:
Brandon Webb (RHP)
Dan Haren (RHP)
Doug Davis (LHP)
Micah Owings (RHP)
Randy Johnson (LHP)
That's a much strong rotation, much better than last years.
Overall, this trade works for them.
As for Oakland, it's a symbol that Billy Beane has conceded the season and is beginning to rebuild. As seen from my farm system previews, Beane doesn't have a ton of high ceiling talent in his minor league system and much of the talent that is close to being drawn upon is already up.
And Beane has shown that he is willing to conduct a full scale rebuild sooner rather than later and likely saw that it was time to do so.
So, let's take a look at each of the players recieved:
Chris Carter (1B) - A pure masher, Carter has plenty of upside. He's not the greatest defender, but he's passable enough. Overall, he's a middle of the order power threat waiting to happen.
Aaron Cunningham (OF) - Stolen from the White Sox in the Danny Richar move, Cunningham has a high upside, as he hits the ball to all fields and has some speed and power. Many compare him to former A's outfielder Eric Byrnes. I say he's more like a young Steve Finley.
Carlos Gonzalez (RF) - Gonzalez is another young outfielder that can mash, given the opportunity. He could start in Oakland right now, pushing Swisher to center and Kotsay out the door if Oakland is willing to take pennies on the dollar.
Brett Anderson (LHP) - A decent left hander with okay stuff, he's more of a Number Four starter at best, though he does have innings eater potential. He'll do well in that ballpark than he ever would have in Arizona.
Gregg Smith and Dana Eveland - Decent arms, but more likely to wind up as relief prospects than anything else.
Overall, it's a trade of quantity over quality. The A's did get a pair of high upside players in Cunningham and Carter, but I wonder if they shouldn't have pushed the Diamondbacks for Matt Scherzer, a pitcher better than Anderson, Smith and Evaland and well worth waiting for.
It's a good trade, as it gives the A's options to play with in the outfield and a future power threat in Carter. I'm just wondering if it was enough to justify the Haren trade. Oakland needs pitching and unless they're planning on using high draft picks due to low finishes on near ready college pitching, they'll be hurting for quite some time.
This trade also officially gives the divisional race solely to the Mariners and Angels. With Oakland and Texas now entering full scale rebuilds (with Texas slightly ahead due to two good drafts and a couple of smart trades), it should be interesting watching the Mariners and Angels slug it out with each other.
If that's the case, then while my team is out of contention, I'll be rooting for Seattle.
My Niece is staying over the night with me, so we're up right now. She's playing with her toy frog (more like eating it, actually) as we speak.
So, let's take a look at some Non-Tender Musings
Ben Broussard Now A Ranger
All it really cost the Rangers was Tim "Tug" Hulett Jr., who was eligible for the Rule 5 Draft and wasn't taken. He may make a career as a utility guy, he may not. We'll see.
As for Broussard, right now I'm penciling him in as the starting first baseman. That leaves a likely lineup of the following:
KInsler (2B)
Cat (LF)
Young (SS)
Blalock (3B)
Bradley (DH)
Broussard (1B)
Salty (C)
Murphy (RF)
Byrd (CF)
It's a slightly stronger lineup than before, but it's not going to strike the fear of god in you.
What this does raise questions about is what the future will be for Shelton, Botts and Cruz. If this is the lineup, than something is going to happen soon to get rid of one of these guys. I have a feeling that Cruz may not survive the off-season. Botts could see everyday playing time in Left Field and at DH to give Bradley a break, while Murphy and Byrd could be rotated as needed. Which means that Cruz is likely getting the boot.
God damn it, this team needs better outfield options. This is getting #### ridiculous.
Bye Bye Aki
Akinori Otsuka was non-tendered, bringing the last remnant of the Chris Young/Adrian Gonzalez trade to an end.
Aki was hurt, but there was some progress in his rehab. However, I wonder how long he would have been able to have pitched for the full season. Would he have been ready in time for the season? I'm not sure.
And does any of this have to do with the fact that he recommended San Diego over Texas to Kosuke Fukudome?
If so, that's petty. But I'm taking the high road and choosing injury.
So long Aki. We hardly knew ye.
Other Non-Tenders To Look At
Mark Prior (RHP - Former Cub) - Eh, what the hell. Gabbard's got options left and if Prior can bounce back a bit, he could be something worthwhile. And could even be worth a draft pick or two if he books.
Kiki Calero (RHP - Former A) - Could be a nice, buy low opportunity for the pen.
Dallas McPherson (3B - Former Angel) - Maybe, still has some potential. Is also made out of glass.
Emil Brown (LF - Royals) - Could form a decent platoon with Cat.
Okay, someone's hungry. Time to warm up a bottle...
The Mariners are an interesting farm organization in that there is talent here, but it’s harder to get a read on it because the Mariners tend to push their kids pretty quickly. While I have nothing against organizations that challenge their young players, the Dodgers did it with Clayton Kershaw, Texas did it with Eric Hurley, New York did it with Phil Hughes, the Mariners have maybe killed some talent by being a bit overzealous in it. A few years ago, they were thought to have much of the top young pitching prospects in baseball. Of that bunch, only King Felix became an elite player. Of course, that’s not saying much. ####, put Hernandez with a bunch of other, good pitching prospects and see how they look compared to him.
That said, there are some good prospects to check out in the Mariners’ systems and a couple of potential superstars in the mix as well, which is more than some organizations I’ve reviewed have (I’m looking at you, Florida!). One trend that I have noticed, however, is that Seattle finds a lot more success in terms of the International Signing Period than in the draft, which is either a sign of Bill Bavasi signing away too many picks for them to be of use or a sign that Seattle needs better scouts stateside, but overall there are some talented kids here that you should keep an eye on.
Mariners Top 15
1 – Carlos Triunfel (SS)
DOB: 2/27/90
Signed: 2006, Dominican Republic
2008 Club: Too Tough To Call Right Now
Height/Weight: 6-2/175
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Triunfel is one of the faster rising players in terms of hype, potential and performance. He signed with Seattle during last year's International Signing Period for $1.3 million last summer and was one of the top international talents available in a class that was full of them (Jesus Montero – Yankees, Oscar Tejeda – Red Sox, and Engel Beltre – Rangers, just to name a few). He tore up the lower minors and has risen quite rapidly, remarkable considering his age.
The Good: Obviously Triunfel is a special talent, as he is a five-tool player that often gets compared to Dodgers Shortstop Rafael Furcal. Triunfel has good contact ability and an excellent approach to hitting, as seen from his impressive numbers so far. His body frame screams power potential. As a defender, he has good hands, a strong arm and his range is good for short. He also has some speed as well, allowing him to get to the ball quickly. All in all, he’s off to a great start. If the Mariners develop him right, he could be a star.
The Bad: Unfortunately, Triunfel has some downside. In spite of his power potential, he hasn’t hit for any power at all, though that may have been because he’s been so aggressively promoted. He’s also got no plate discipline and hasn’t drawn many walks. He’s having trouble playing shortstop and has made over 30 errors at the position, but that’s not really a concern when you consider that he’s not long at the position. If you see photos of the kid (and his video on Youtube), he’s got a big body frame and as he gets older, he’ll begin to fill out, losing range, speed, and eventually having to move over to Third Base, though that’s not a bad thing. He’ll probably be a very excellent third baseman.
Projection: Very High, but I’m wondering if the Mariners will restrain themselves from their usual practice of rushing prospects, which has probably ruined a lot more prospects than it’s gained. Triunfel has proven to be quite more advanced than advertised, but it makes no sense to send him to Double A where he’ll probably be destroyed.
What He Can Be: An All-Star Third Baseman, Possibly Along The Lines Of Miguel Cabrera
2008 Course Of Action: Triunfel proved that he could handle the lowest levels of the minors, but he probably should remain in High A for next season. Seattle might have other ideas and could send him to Double A, again, which I think is a really BAD idea.
2 – Adam Jones (CF)
DOB: 8/1/85
Drafted: 1st round, 2003, California High School
2008 Club: Seattle Mariners (MLB)
Height/Weight: 6-2/180
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: One of the better outfield prospects in the AL West, Jones had a rocky intro to the majors in a limited call up last September. Since then, Jones has become one of the top prospects in baseball and has improved by leaps and bounds.
The Good: Jones is loaded with tools, his best are his speed and his power, plus good bat speed. He's also got one of the best arms in the system, not surprising considering he touched the mid 90's off of a mound in high school.
The Bad: Jones will always strike out a lot, but he still doesn’t draw enough walks, though in his defense, he has increased his walk total from last year. Jones still has problems hitting lefties and needs to fine tune his base stealing and his outfield instincts.
Projection: Low. There are some holes in Jones' game, but he really has nothing else to prove down in the minors and should get a decent shot, in spite of the fact that he has probably been rushed at several points in his career.
What He Can Be: An power hitting, speedy outfielder.
2008 Course Of Action: With Ichiro in center locked in long term and Jose Guillen now in Kansas City, Jones is now going to be the man in right field for the Mariners, giving them a very good outfield defensive unit.
3 – Jeff Clement (C)
DOB: 8/21/83
Drafted: 1st Round, 2005, University of Southern California
2008 Club: Tacoma Rainers (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 6-1/210
Bats/Throws: L/R
The Skinny: Drafted third overall in the 2005 draft, Clement has managed to shut up many of the doubters that criticized his selection by improving greatly since the year began. Last season, he tore up the Texas League, but was inexplicably promoted to Triple-A following minor knee and elbow surgery, and struggled while splitting time between catcher and designated hitter. Clement has since returned with a vengeance and is already looking to be a factor for the Mariners next season.
The Good: Clement’s bat has finally come alive after years of being unnecessarily rushed through the system. He’s got natural power that allows him to hit to all fields and he’s got a solid approach to the plate. He also works the count and waits for his pitch, but is cool with drawing the walk.
The Bad: Okay, let’s get this out of the way. I like Clement a lot, but one thing I did notice during an Isotopes game is that he has a lot of trouble controlling the running game. His defense isn’t the greatest either and his arm isn’t accurate. Another common knock on Clement is that he also tends to lengthen his swing when trying to hard to hit the long ball, which results in increased K rates. Still, K’s aren’t too much of a problem, as long as he can begin to take more walks, which he has begun to do.
Projection: Low. Clement would be able start on several teams already and should have a bright future, whether it's for the Mariners or if it's with someone else.
What He Can Be: A Catcher That Hits Cleanup
2008 Course Of Action: A wild idea I would decide to do if I were the Mariners would be to split Clement and Johjima between catcher and DH in order to keep both fresh and keep their bats in the lineup. More likely, Clement will be back down to Triple A, but not for long. Johjima is entering his last year and likely won’t return to Seattle next year, leaving the backstop role all to Clement.
4 – Juan Carlos Ramirez (RHP)
DOB: 9/21/89
Signed: 2006, Nicaragua
2008 Club: Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (Low A)
Height/Weight: 5-11/175
Bats/Throws: S/R
The Skinny: Ramirez was the talk of the Venezuelan Summer League in 206, year, earning Pitcher of the Year honors thanks to a 1.66 ERA in 65 innings while limiting opposing hitters to a .191 average and no home runs. He then followed it up with a solid showing in the Arizona Rookie League, giving Seattle another young high ceiling arm to go with Phillipe Aumont.
The Good: The Mariners feel that Ramirez could be their first real solid pitching prospect produced by the system since Hernandez graduated from the farm. He's got a mid 90's fastball and a solid curveball that is already regarded to be a plus pitch.
The Bad: Ramirez needs a third pitch, most likely a changeup or a slider, to make him real effective.
Projection: High. The Mariners feel that in the future, Ramirez will tag team with King Felix to give them one of the best one-two punches in baseball.
What He Can Be: A Top Of The Rotation Starter
2008 Course Of Action: Ramirez did fairly well in the Arizona League, but before Mariners fans begin to jump on the Ramirez Train, keep in mind that he's not going to rise as fast as Hernandez did, so he's going to be a ways off. I would think that he'd be retained in Extended Spring Training before being sent to the Northwestern League. However, it's ore likely he's headed to WIsconsin to begin his full season stint in the Midwestern League.
5 – Philippe Aumont (RHP)
DOB: 1/07/89
Drafted: 1st Round, 2007, Canadian High School
2008 Club: Arizona Mariners (Rookie)
Height/Weight: 6-7/225
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Rated the top Canadian prospect in the draft, Aumont rose up a lot of draft boards, though none seemed to be targeting him directly except for Florida, who loved his potential and would have fit in great in their system. Unfortunately for them, several near ready college arms were taken before Seattle, who took him 11th overall, just before Florida. I absolutely loved this pick for the Mariners and it gives them another solid arm to look forward to in the future.
The Good: Growing up in a troubled home, Aumont gets rave reviews from his maturity. He throws a sinking fastball that hits the mid 90’s while hitting 98 at times with plenty of sink. He throws a very nice slider that gives him a effective secondary pitch. His delivery is excellent and his size gives his stuff more movement. He has a solid understanding of pitching and locates his stuff well. All in all, the tools are here for success.
The Bad: Aumont is also inconsistent and many feel that he has a high risk of bust potential as well. He has worked on a changeup and while it has the potential to be a good pitch, it’s far behind his slider and sinker.
Projection: Very High. Aumont is your classic high risk/high reward project. He has high bust potential, but he’s was also one of the best talents in the draft. If the Mariners take their time with him and get him to harness his raw stuff, he’ll yield some fantastic results. If he’s never able to master the rotation, he’d be a good closer.
What He Can Be: A Top Of The Rotation Starter.
2008 Course Of Action: Aumont, because he missed time last year, will likely be checked out during extended. The Mariners will decide then where to assign him in the system. I have him right now in Arizona, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him sent to short season ball.
6 – Wladimir Balentien (RF/CF)
DOB: 7/2/84
Signed: 2002, Curaco
2008 Club: Tacoma Rainers (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 6-2/180
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: For all the press given to Adam Jones, Balentien certainly deserves a good deal of press himself. He had arguably a better year than Jones and has fixed some of his flaws that had kept him down.
The Good: Potentially the best power hitter in the system, even better than Clement, Balentien is starting to put it all together. He’s showing more and more than he’s a potentially a 30 home run guy and he’s also shown good speed as well. He’s improved his approach at the plate and is starting to come into his own as a defender.
The Bad: Balentien still isn’t without his flaws. He needs to lay off the breaking pitches and his K rate will always likely be high. He won’t hit for a high average and there are many that feel that he coasts on his natural talent.
Projection: Fair. Balentien is definitely coming into his own and the power is legitimate. He’s got All Star potential within him and if he continues to improve, he could force his way to Seattle sometime next year. Still, he’s a completely different guy than he was two years ago.
What He Can Be: A slugging outfielder corner that hits cleanup.
2008 Course Of Action: With the outfield situation in Seattle full up thanks to Ichiro and company, Balentien will likely head back to Tacoma, Balentien will likely head back to Tacoma to get regular work in. However, he’s nearly ready and it’s going to be hard for Seattle to keep him back for much longer. Something’s gotta give here and it all depends on what the Mariners decide his future is in the organization.
7 – Michael Saunders (LF)
DOB: 11/19/86
Drafted: 11th Round, 2004, Canadian High School
2008 Club: West Tennessee Diamond Jaxx (Double A)
Height/Weight: 6-4/205
Bats/Throws: L/R
The Skinny: Saunders is another young centerfielder in the system and while he doesn’t have the press that Jones or Balentien does, he’s a fast rising prospect who has an impressive set of skills.
The Good: There’s a lot to like from this big, athletic Canadian. He’s got a nice, clean swing and shows the ability to eventually hit for power in the future. He’s got above average speed and has good range for centerfield if you want it o stick him there. Overall, Saunders is a nice, developmental prospect that could be a good big leaguer in time.
The Bad: Saunders has a weak arm that isn’t good enough for center, which is why he’s in left for the moment. And from what I’ve read about him, he also gets pull happy when trying to hit for power.
Projection: Average. Mariners prospects are hard to get a read on because of their aggressive promotion process, but overall it looks like his breakout is real and he should be taken seriously by prospect nuts.
What He Can Be: A starting left fielder
2008 Course Of Action: I expect the Mariners to leave Saunders in Tennessee to start the year, though it’s hard to tell where he could be, especially since there is an opening in Tacoma right now.
8 – Matt Mangini (3B)
DOB: 12/21/85
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2007, Oklahoma State
2008 Club: High Desert Mavericks (High A)
Height/Weight: 6-4/222
Bats/Throws: L/R
The Skinny: Mangini had two great years at North Carolina State, but transferred to OSU, partially because of his relationship to current Cowboys assistant coach Billy Jones. Mangini had a solid season in the 2006 Cape Cod League, where ranked as Baseball America’s #5 prospect. However, a lackluster year resulted in Mangini falling to the second round, where Seattle saw him as a good value pick.
The Good: Mangini gets rave reviews about his smooth swing and the fact that he’s a lefty helps out a lot. His plate discipline is pretty good and he has some power, making him a home run threat.
The Bad: Mangini is far from being a perfect product. For starters, he’s got trouble hitting left handed pitching. The second reason is that he’s a subpar defender at third base, making it almost a lock that he’ll be moving to first base at some point in his career.
Projection: Low, though it’s possible that as he rises through the system he’ll tap into more of his untapped power as he progresses.
What He Can Be: A Power Hitting First Baseman Who Will Hit Enough For A Club To Ignore His Defense
2008 Course Of Action: Mangini will be sent to High Desert, where he should put up some excellent numbers in the California League. As far as his long term future, Mangini will probably finish the year in Double A, as the Mariners may be looking at him to be their first baseman next year, with Sexson’s contract up and Ben Broussard not a long term fit.
9 – Matt Tuiasosopo (3B)
DOB: 2/21/85
Drafted: 3rd round, 2004, Washington High School
2008 Club: Tacoma Rainers (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 6-2/220
Bats/Throws: L/R
The Skinny: Due to the signings of Eddie Guardado and Raul Ibanez, the Mariners found themselves without first or second round pick. Hence, they made a splash by taking local boy Tuiasosopo, who was committed to the University of Washington as a quarterback, but changed his mind after a signing bonus of over $2 million dollars. The gamble has yet to pay off so far, as Tuiasosopo has been unnecessarily rushed through the system and has been playing in levels far above his age group, but a solid 2007 has restored some of the luster to his stock.
The Good: Tuiasosopo has recovered from an awful 2006 to evolve into a decent third baseman. He’s shown vast improvement in his plate discipline and has solid line driver power. His defense is vastly improved and he shows good range at third and is accurate on his throws.
The Bad: Tuiasosopo power potential, once thought to be sky high, is now likely never going to come. A good portion of the blame is probably on Seattle, as they aggressively promoted him and hurt his stock a lot. It’s likely he’ll never become that middle of the order threat the Mariners hoped he would be.
Projection: Average. Tuiasosopo would have a lot better shot of a long term career in the bigs if the Mariners would just leave him alone and allow him time to develop. We’ll see what happens, but his future looks bright.
What He Can Be: A Solid Third Baseman
2008 Course Of Action: With Adrian Beltre in the last year of his deal, the Mariners will probably send Tuiasosopo back to Triple A, where he'll benefit from another year of development and learning.
10 – Tony Butler (LHP)
DOB: 11/18/87
Drafted: 4th Round, 2006, Wisconsin High School
2008 Club: High Desert Mavericks (High A)
Height/Weight: 6-7/205
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: After putting up dominating numbers in Rookie and Short Season Leagues respectively, Butler was sent to the Midwestern League, where he started the year badly (0-6, 30 BB, 29 K, 7.02 ERA) before rebounding spectacularly in the second half (4-1, 16 BB, 44 K, 3.29 ERA).
The Good: Butler’s got solid velocity, pitching in the low 90’s with good sinking and being able to dial it up to 94-95 mph. He has a good curveball that has late break and is a plus pitch. His changeup is a potential third pitch, giving him a decent arsenal to work with. His height gives his fastball a bit of sink to it and his makeup is great. All in all, not bad.
The Bad: Butler’s mechanics and delivery are inconsistent and as a result, he’s got problems with control. He also works high in the zone, resulting in him being flyball friendly.
Projection: High. Butler’s got promise and his second half of the season is a sign that he’s starting to get things a bit. All in all, he could be a very good addition to the Seattle rotation in four years, provided that Seattle doesn’t decide that Butler could be ready in two.
What He Can Be: A Number Two or Three Starter
2008 Course Of Action: Butler probably will get promoted to High A High Desert, where he should remain for the year, although if he shows some dominance, the Mariners could decide to promote him quickly in order to limit his exposure to the California League.
11 – Ryan Feierabend (LHP)
DOB: 8/22/85
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2003, Ohio High School
2008 Club: Seattle Mariners (MLB)
Height/Weight: 6-3/190
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: After putting up reasonably good numbers for Seattle in a big league call up, Feierabend returned
The Good: Southpaw with consistently improving stuff to complement ever-present plus pitchability. Lively fastball sits at 88-90 mph with excellent location, and hitters are kept off balance with the best changeup in the system. He's very mature, and pitches fearlessly.
The Bad: Feierabend doesn't have a usable breaking ball at this point, and its development will be the key to his career, as he has the body, delivery, and stamina of a starter, and has only marginal value as a reliever who doesn't miss a lot of bats.
Projection: Low. Feierabend was young for his level, and has undoubtedly been rushed. His shellacking was probably a blessing in disguise, as it allowed him time to continue his development.
What He Can Be: An effective innings eater in the rotation.
2008 Course Of Action: The Mariners should really allow Feierabend a second chance at the rotation. Aside from trying to pursue the Jeff Weavers and Horacio Ramirez’s of the world, why not give a guy that can give you roughly the same performance at a 1/10 of the price?
12 – Chris Tillman (RHP)
DOB: 4/15/1988
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2006, California High School
2008 Club: High Desert Mavericks (High A)
Height/Weight: 6-5/195
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: A young power arm that had a solid debut, Tillman was sent to the Midwestern League, where he did okay, but not enough to merit a promotion to the California League after 8 starts. What happened was predictable. Tillman was beaten with the whupass sticks in Cali, though he did show some signs of improvement in the last month or so.
The Good: A power arm, Tillman’s fastball sits in the low 90’s and can touch 96, plus features some sinking action. Some feel that as he ages, he could possibly add a couple of more ticks on the ball. He’s got a nice, hard slider that is a solid out pitch and his mechanics are flawless.
The Bad: Tillman can overthrow at times, resulting in him getting pounded hard when he does so.
Projection: High. Like Saunders, it’s hard to rate Tillman because of Seattle’s promotion schedule. Still, he does look to be an elite talent and could be something good, especially if he develops a good enough pitch to match up with his sinker and slider.
What He Can Be: A Middle Of The Rotation Guy
2008 Course Of Action: After his destruction in the California League, Tillman is going to have to repeat and show some improvement from his losing record and high ERA.
13 – Justin Thomas (LHP)
DOB: 1/18/84
Drafted: 4th Round, 2005, Youngstown State
2008 Club: West Tennessee Diamond Jaxx (Double A)
Height/Weight: 6-3/228
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: Despite a decent performance in High A, Thomas was promoted to Double A to being the year. It was there that his control abandoned him and that the level of competition may have caught up with him, as Thomas was virtually destroyed after the All Star Break.
The Good: An aggressive southpaw, Thomas attacks the strike zone with a sinking fastball that ranges between 88-93 mph. He has a lot of deception thanks to his odd delivery and pitches to contact, inducing ground outs. His slider is okay and is workable, but his changeup is the out pitch and it’s nasty. He’s also able to log in innings.
The Bad: Thomas really isn’t going to get much better than he is. Some improvement on his slider could help, but more importantly he needs to improve his effectiveness against right handers, who destroy him.
Projection: Fair. Thomas needs experience, but he’s not going to get much better than he is now.
What He Can Be: A decent back of the rotation starter.
2008 Course Of Action: Something went seriously wrong with Thomas in the second half, whether it was him hiding an injury, a loss of control or just the league catching up to him, but he needs to stay in Tennessee to figure out what the hell happened.
14 – Yung Chi Chen (2B)
DOB: 7/13/83
Signed: 2004, Taiwan
2008 Club: Tacoma Rainers (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 5-11/170
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Signed during the International Signing Period, Chen has done somewhat well for himself, rising quickly and earning spots on both the 2006 Futures’ Game World Squad and on the 2005 World Baseball Classic squad. However, necessary sholder surgery limited him to 15 at bats for the Rainers, which is why he was assigned to the Arizona Fall League.
The Good: Chen has the ability to hit for a solid average in the majors and has a little bit of pop on him. He’s also improved somewhat on his plate discipline and can hit at the top of the order.
The Bad: Chen doesn’t have much power in his frame except for the doubles variety and isn’t likely going to get much more. He’s also not an inspiring defender.
Projection: Low. Chen isn’t a real special player and likely doesn’t profile as a regular unless it’s with a real #### club. Hence, I feel he’s likely destined to be a backup or utility guy.
What He Can Be: A very good utility infielder.
2008 Course Of Action: With the shoulder now healed, Chen will play full time in Tacoma unless something happens at the big league levels that would require him to be called up.
15 – Mark Lowe (RHP)
DOB: 6/7/83
Drafted: 5th Round, 2004, University of Texas-Arlington
2008 Club: Tacoma Rainers (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 6-3/190
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Hunter Pence’s former teammate, Lowe was drafted much later than Pence (whom I believe Seattle had a chance to get, had they not gone apeshit on free agency signings. Still, Lowe rose rather quickly, as in he was tied to a rocket and then launched quickly, but that rushing caught up to him as he was hit hard last season, and was shut down after he required a second surgery to his pitching elbow.
The Good: Lowe has possibly the best slider of the pitching and is a solid #### pitch. His fastball is okay, but nothing special, but it has some good sinking action to it. His control and command were good before the surgery.
The Bad: A second elbow surgery doesn’t bode well for Lowe’s future, but some have come back from worse. However, it will take some of the punch out of his stuff and he may wind up being only a capable middle reliever, nothing more.
Projection: Low. There’s not much else we can project on Lowe. It all depends on how well he comes back from surgery.
What He Can Be: A very good middle reliever.
2008 Course Of Action: Now fully healthy, Lowe will likely head back to Tacoma where he will hopefully regain some of his past success and head up to Seattle when someone else goes down.
Final Thoughts
All in all, this is a odd organization of sorts, mostly because they’ve blocked themselves in several positions where they could have benefited from moving kids up by signing free agents. They’ve also given some talent away, via waivers or stupid trades. However, the one thing I can say is that the Mariners seem to have had success in spite of themselves. I’m not sure how long that will last, as there are just too many if’s in the Seattle rotation and lineup that won’t last for much longer. However, they have a enviable wealth of outfield talent and Clement can be a solid trade chip in a market lacking in young backstop talent, which could help fill some needs. Provided that the organization hold off on their obsessive compulsive need to push and just sit back and allow the kids to develop, I believe the Mariners may be able to reap the benefits of their farm to sustain their newfound winning, provided that they don’t destroy more talent because of their player development process.
I checked out Ken Davidoff's latest column for Newsday yesterday, which was advice to Omar Minaya for how to improve the team next year.
For the most part, the column is good, with praise for keepng Willie Randolph and some of Minaya's minor trades and dealings, the only one two under issue being Luis Castillo and Moises Alou. However, his advice for how to improve the team is...flawed to say the least.
Much like my recent Steve Phillips rant, this one is more of a trashing o####uy that really has no idea what the hell he is talking about.
Let's see his advice to improve the Mets:
Trade Aaron Heilman, Lastings Milledge, Kevin Mulvey and a lower-level prospect to the A's for Dan Haren.
What the hell?
Okay, first off, Davidoff rightly tells Minaya he's got no chance for Johan Santana. However, he forgets to tell him that he's got no chance to scoring Haren either.
Haren is a legitimate top of the rotation starter that is signed for a very affordable amount of money, $4 million in 2008, $5.5 million in 2009 and $6.75 million (team option) in 2010. He is also not going to be had for this package. It's not enough.
Heilman is a okay setup man and Milledge can be a superstar. But Mulvey is merely a decent starting pitching prospect, maybe a Number Two or Three, more likely a Number Four, and unless the Mets are including Fernando Martinez or Carlos Gomez as the lower level prospect, this package isn't near enough.
Beane is likely going to look for a package similar to what the Twins are asking for Santana, three prospects near ready to play full time. There are several teams that could easily beat the Mets' offer, notably the Rangers and Mariners, who could offer better prospects than the Mets ever could.
Sorry Ken.
I'll detail Haren's price in a future On The Block.
The more I look at this team, the more I feel that had things broken differently, maybe the Rangers would be in contention, or at least at .500, than they are now.
The rotation is more or less settled, with the rotation likely going to consist of Kevin Millwood, Brandon McCarthy, Vicente Padilla, Kason Gabbard and Edinson Volquez, with Kameron Loe functioning as the long man and emergency starter. All in all, it's not a bad rotation to hang your hat on, and it should have some improvement as the kids get older and more experienced.
The middle of the infield looks set, with Young and Kinsler anchoring the middle, and Hank should be better next year now that he's gotten his medical issues out of the way. Salty should be an above average catcher and maybe the first superstar catcher the Rangers have had since Pudge was allowed to leave.
It also appears that Frank Catalonotto will be our starting left fielder next year, not a bad thing as long as you're willing to accept some occasional errors and his problems with Lefties. And I think Murphy can be a average centerfielder/right fielder, depending on where you're willing to put him.
That leaves, really, only a certain amount of holes to fill.
First Base - Depending on who you ask, the Rangers are either going to re-sign Wiffy Wilkerson to play first for a year, play Cat there full time or try and sign a stopgap gloveman, like Sean Casey. As for myself, I'd immediately call up the Cincinatti Reds and ask them if I could convince Adam Dunn to accept a trade if his option is exercised. I'd trade them a average prospect in a second if I could get him, so long as I agreed to pay for the option. Dunn could easily be a American League Version of Ryan Howard if brought over.
Centerfield/Right Field - As I said, the Rangers could use David Murphy in either spot, so long as you don't expect a whole lot. I'd make a big push for Andruw Jones on a one year deal, to allow some of the kids on the farm to develop, or chase after Mike Cameron for three years. But I won't, WON'T, sign Torii Hunter to a five year deal. That just smells like disaster.
Really, however you slice it, the Rangers need help. However, with the trade market brewing up nicely, it's possible that the Rangers can address their needs if they're willing to take a chance on dealing away some of their fringy prospects (Mendoza, Galarraga) or some of their arms that they may not need anymore (Tejeda). All in all, it should make for an interesting winter.
Other Notes
Scott Feldman will evidentlly be headed to the AFL this winter instead of Josh Rupe, who still is hurt. I still love Rupe's arm, but this is getting crazy.
Sammy Sosa wants to come back for another year. To that, I say hell no.
The Rangers are getting a lot of love on several of Baseball America's Minor League Previews. Guys that have been profiled are:
Tommy Hunter, Jacob Brigham, Fabio Castillo (Northwestern)
I wonder how the list would have looked had Michael Main been eligible for either list, but he spent so little time in both leagues that he's just a floating prospect right now.
Update: It appears that both Michael Main and Neftali Feliz would have made the Northwestern League list had they been eligible, with Main being the Number One Overall Prospect. Woot!
Bah, work blocked Foxsports.com. Fortunately, my laptop came in and it is sweet. Windows Vista does take some getting used to, however.
Anyhow, here's what I was going to post on Friday. The Rangers Report will be up later.
So, to borrow from Will Carrol, powered by Dell, onto the show...
On The Block – Jon Garland
I decided to bring back On The Block, partially because I missed doing it, partially because the trade market has become a bigger factory nowadays, especially since free agency is starting to suck in terms of sexy names. It just won't appear as often. So, let's check it out.
The Why: Garland has actually been heavily shopped as far as last off-season, and was mentioned in a trade to Texas (for John Danks and Nick Masset, which ultimately was done for Brandon McCarthy) and was nearly traded to the Astros for Jason Hirsh, Wily Taveras, and Taylor Buchholz (until Kenny Williams blew the deal by asking for Hunter Pence at the last minute, when the deal was done.) Now, however, there is more of a movement to move Garland, who is entering his walk year and has been displaced in the rotation by Javier Vazquez and Mark Buehrle, the Sox’s two co-aces. Garland himself has already announced that he doesn't expect to be in Pale Hose next season.
The Rumored Asking Price: Apparently, all that Williams is asking for is two relievers, though one of them has to be a proven commodity and needs to have closer potential. Evidently, Williams feels that he was burned when he acquired Masset, Andy Sisco, and David Aardsma.
Can A Trade Be Done: Yes. With the coming winter being bare in starting pitching, Garland, despite a bit of a collapse after the All Star break, will be very attractive, especially with that asking price, which is likely going to be improved upon as the market develops.
The Good: Garland has proven to be a major league innings eater, something that is becoming quite valueable with pitchers spending more and more time on the DL due to various ailments. However, one other thing that makes Garland attractive is that he is a groundball pitcher and keeps the ball in the park, a benefit for many teams, especially those that have homer friendly parks. Overall, he’d be a quality middle of the rotation guy for most of the teams around the league.
Potential Hang-ups:
Money –Garland is due $12 million dollars in his final year.
Health – The only other one I can think of is that the two White Sox pitchers moved last off-season, McCarthy and Freddy Garcia, have both spent time on the DL, making one wonder if Garland may be headed to the DL at some point in the season.
Kenny Williams – Williams is ambitious to a fault. No, that's not quite right. I feel he tries to screw you as royally as possible (which is why the Astro deal imploded). He's not a stupid man by any means, I just think that he tries to go for the big splash far too often.
Potential Suitors – In Alphabetical Order
Arizona Diamondbacks –The Dbacks have a surplus of talent in the farm system and lack any sort of reliable starting pitching coming into next year, with both Doug Davis and Livan Hernandez heading into free agency. Plus, as a sinkerballer, Garland will thrive with a Gold Glove caliber middle infield behind him.
Colorado Rockies – Rumor has it that the Rockies could offer Brian Fuentes in exchange for Garland, in an attempt to make the salaries balance out. It’s going to take a lot more than that in my opinion, as Williams won't take a one year rental of Fuentes. He'll probably insist on 3B Ian Stewart in the deal as well (who would fill a hole, allowing Williams to trade current 3B Joe Crede for the actual relief help) or 23 year-old reliever Juan Morillo, who has closer potential and, according to Baseball America, was reportedly clocked at 104 mph a few years back, to complete the deal. There could be something here.
Houston Astros – Ah yes, the Astros. While I don't think the Stros need another starter (They could have a decent rotation of Oswalt, Backe, Williams, Wandy, and Sampson next year, which isn't bad), ownership may decide that they don't trust the young kids enough to compete, which would be a shame. However, a deal involving Chad Qualls and RHP Paul Estrada, who many feel is a closer in the making, would work, though the Astros would likely insist on a window to negotiate a contract extension.
Los Angeles Dodgers – The Dodgers may need some pitching depth, depending on how Derek Lowe and Jason Schmidt are doing, along with the troubles that have come with Esteban Loaiza. Garland not only could be a horse in that lineup, he would also allow them to acquire a pair of picks by letting Garland leave. While Kenny Williams would likely demand Jonathan Broxton in any deal, the Dodgers could instead offer him Rafael Furcal and Takashi Saito, filling two needs at once, along with allowing the Dodgers to allow their top shortstop prospect, Chin-lung Hu, to move into Furcal’s place at short.
New York Mets – El Duque is likely done, leaving a potential rotation of Glavine, Martinez, Maine, and Perez, with some semblance of Mike Pelfrey or Philip Humber attempting to be the fifth starter. Minaya likes to go for the big splash and, to be fair, Garland isn't a bad fit here. However, New York doesn't have anything that fits with what Williams was asking for, unless a deal can be done for Aaron Heilman and Humber/Pelfrey.
Seattle Mariners – Oddly enough, I do like the fit here with the Mariners. Garland would move to a nice, spacious ballpark, would have an excellent infield defense behind him with Gold Glove candidates everywhere but first and he'd be an improvement over Horacio Ramirez, likely to be a non-tender candidate this winter. One problem - The Mariners won't trade Brandon Morrow, who would likely have to be a part of any deal to work, though the Mariners could intrigue Williams by offering him Wladimir Valentin, a young outfield prospect that could handle centerfield, but would be a supurb outfield corner thanks to his huge power potential.
If I Had To Make A Deal - I would do the following:
Seattle Gets - RHP Jon Garland
Chicago Gets - OF Wladimir Valentin (he's blocked anyway PF), LHP Eric O'Flaherty, RHP Sean Green
It's not a sexy trade, but it gives Chicago some decent relief help in the bullpen while giving them a potential centerfielder of the future, since it's looking like Ryan Sweeney's power won't ever come and that he might now be able to handle center.
