Time for the team previews to resume.

Today, the hat says...we're going North of the Border.

Team Previews 2008 – Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays have in recent years made the setp toward respectability, but that has come in spite of of bad signings, bad drafts and bad personnel decisions overall by management, specifically J.P Riccardi.  To put it bluntly, the Jays are in a tough spot, as they don't suck as bad as some of the other teams in the AL, but they aren't as good as the cream of the crop. 

Starting Rotation

1. Roy Halladay (RHP) – Halladay is still an effective pitcher, though he has begun depending more on groundballs these days instead of flat out dominating hitters like he used to.  He’s still a bit of a health risk, but as long as that knuckle-curve of his remains solid and the fastball low, he should be dominant again.
2. A.J. Burnett (RHP) – Gifted, but injured, Burnett is entering his walk year, as he’s likely to opt out of his current contract to hit free agency this coming off-season.  Burnett could be a legitimate top of the rotation starter, but he either gets injured or struggles just when it looks like he’s turned a corner.  However, because of the money at stake, look for him to actually pitch nearly a complete season, with decent numbers.
3. Dustin McGowan (RHP) – Best pure stuff of the young starters, McGowan should be able to elevate his status enough to where he can be considered a capable number two.  He’s got four good pitches, including his fastball that can reach the mid 90’s and has some ink to it.  His only real weakness is lefties, but aside from that, he could effectively replace Burnett as soon as next season, provided that the Jays have some help to replace his spot in the rotation. 
4. Shaun Marcum (RHP) – I’m not sold on Marcum, as I feel he gets by more on the command of his average stuff than anything else.  That doesn’t mean he can’t be an effective fourth starter, it just means don’t expect him to be lights out.  Last year is probably the best case scenario for him.
5. Jesse Litsch (RHP) – Litsch is an average fifth starter that depends on his defense to help him pitch effectively. 

Bullpen

• B.J. Ryan (Closer) – Ryan’s injury and subsequent Tommy John Surgery were probably a prime example of some of the worst
• Jeremy Accardo (Setup Man) – The fact that the Jays were able to get him for a declining Shea Hillenbrand amounts to Highway Robbery.  Accardo will likely be moving back to the setup role, as it appears that Ryan will be ready at the start of the season.
• Casey Janseen (RHP) – Janseen is likely going to remain in the pen as the primary 7th inning man, a role that he succeeded in last season, though the Jays have made note that they haven’t given up on him as a starter.
• Gustavo Chacin (LHP) – I’m not sure why Chacin is still on the roster, but it looks like he’ll remain in the bullpen as a swingman unless Litsch or someone else plays their way out.
• Jason Frasor (RHP) - Only as good as his command takes him.
• Brandon League (RHP) – League failed to establish himself as a setup man last season, but he still has a lot of use as a middle reliever, with the chance to setup later.
• Scott Downs (LHP) - Dominant lefty reliever completes the pen.

Starting Lineup

1. Reed Johnson (LF) – Johnson was effective as a leadoff man in 2006, but injuries killed his season last year and resulted in the lack of effectiveness.  Johnson will likely share time with Matt Stairs this season.
2. Lyle Overbay (1B) - Not a great power hitter, Overbay has at least done a decent job of getting on base before injuries hit.
3. Vernon Wells (CF) - A disappointment, Wells needs to bounce back from a terrible year at the plate.  With the departure of Glaus, a lot more is riding on Wells' ability to drive in runs.
4. Frank Thomas (DH) - Still a capable masher, Thomas will see the bulk of at bats at DH.  It looks like his health issues are behind him, but keep in mind he is older and will need regular rest. 
5. Alex Rios (RF) - Rios is rapidly turning into a solid all around player.  He's able to hit for power and a decent average and isn't a slouch on the basepaths either.  He's a great right fielder.  All in all, here is one long term commitment I wouldn't mind the Jays making.
6. Scott Rolen (3B) – Rolen is now in the fold and frankly, this is a bad trade.  There is a difference between "passionate" and "high maintenence."  Rolen is the later.  He's a decent defender, but there is no guarnatee that he'll stay healthy, especially now that he's playing on turf.
7. Gregg Zaun (C) – Zaun is rapidly declining as a catcher.  The only thing he really can do now is hit lefties.
8. Aaron  Hill (2B) - A nifty second baseman, Hill should be on an All Star squad in the near future.  His defensive value will help make up for the questionable signing up next...
9. David Eckstein (SS) - The Blue Jays are betting that Eckstein and Rolen will bring in some of that "gritty" atmosphere from St. Louis.  Eckstein is old, not a great bet to stay healthy and can't hit.  That spells winner!

Bench

• John McDonald (SS) - A defensive shortstop, McDonald will likely spell Eckstein late in games.
• Matt Stairs (UTIL) - There is still some life in that bat, as Stairs enjoyed one of his best seasons last year.  You'll see him pop up all around the diamond, spelling Johnson, Overbay and Thomas when necessary.
• Rod Barajas (C) - Barajas signs up with the very team he spurned last season.  Regardless of my personal feeligns of Barajas, he may have at least another solid year left in him.  All he needs is the chance to sieze it.
• Marco Scutaro (INF) – Scutaro may wind up beating out Eckstein for the starting gig at short this season.  Scutaro can play short and second and has a bit of pop to his bat.  But that's really about all he can do. 

Minor League Notables

• Curtis Thigpen (C) – Thigpen did well enough in limited action last season that he’ll likely be the starter come 2009.  While he’ll likely spend the year in the minors, should injuries decimate
• Ricky Romero (LHP) - Famously picked ahead of Troy Tulowitzski, Romero may be ready to contribute at the end of the season.  His ceiling is a Number Four starter.

Final Thoughts

This is really Toronto’s last shot at contending, as this team was built to win now.  After this season, there will be a lot of people leaving the organization via free agency and Toronto lacks the major pieces in the farm other than Travis Snider that will  help out long term.  Even then, unless Toronto gets the benefit of a lot of injuries among their division mates, they are, at best, the third best team in the division.

Final Prediction - 3rd Place, American League East. 

I know I may be overreacting to the loss of B.J. Ryan to Tommy John Surgery, but you have to admit that the loss of the Jays closer kills Toronto's chances to compete in the always competitive AL East.

Ryan was the best closer in the league last year and showed dominance against the Red Sox and Yankees, two teams with a lot of left handed hitters and was all but unbeatable for much of the year.  And with the Blue Jays rotation and bullpen thin already, Toronto needed Ryan healthy in order to keep the pen together.

Now it's all gone to hell.

Jason Frasor is the temporary closer, though Jeremy Accardo may soon challenge him for the job.  The Jays have little in the farm system to deal and what was once their most valuable trade commodity, Vernon Wells, is locked up for the long haul.

So what do the Jays do?

They have Alex Rios, a excellent young outfielder that can play centerfield that could net prospects as well as free up a place for Adam Lind full time once Reed Johnson comes back, but such a move would leave the Jays shorthanded in the short term.  The rotation is a mess, largely because the Jays were outbid for their few free agent targets and have tried to rebuild a rotation mainly out of retreads and has beens.

The reality is that this team may have to blow itself up and compete for next year, as the pitching trade market is shallow and expensive. 

Aside from Rios, would could net a decent young pitcher and a average position player, the Jays could also move Troy Glaus, who is drawing interest around the league from teams needing another bat in the lineup.  Glaus can still capably handle third base and still has plenty of power, despite his nagging injuries.  The main sticking point is that Glaus has three years left on his deal AND a full no trade clause.  Hence, the Jays would have to hammer out a compromise with Glaus just to get him to waive the no trade. 

If they really want a Kings Ransom's worth of prospects, they could consider listening to offers for Roy Halladay, much as the Astros did when they were listening for offers for Roy Oswalt last year.  Offering up Halladay would generate a lot of buzz around baseball and would prompt many clubs to dip into their systems for the necessary pieces to make a offer.

Or, if the Jays are really willing to continue to compete, they could simply announce that they are willing to be partners in a salary dump, much as the Yankees did when they traded for Bobby Abreu and Corey Lidle last season and the result was that they got impact players in exchange for some average prospects.  Some teams willing to shed large contracts, such as the Giants with Armando Benitez, the Mariners with Jeff Weaver, the Rockies for some combination of Josh Fogg and Byung Hyun Kim, or the Nationals with Chad Cordero (a stretch, but not a large one) could make a deal for meager prospects in exchange for having the salary relief.  However, the result would be damaging in the long run as the Jays payroll would skyrocket and the impact on the bottom line might not be much.  Plus, team's may not be eager to deal with GM J.P. Riccardi, in light of the recent story that he deliberately lied about Ryan's injury in Spring Training to keep the injury a secret.

Whatever the result, the Blue Jays are a lesser team now that their closer has gone down.  And instead of competing for the division with the Red Sox or the Yankees, the Jays may instead find themselves competing to stay out of the gutter with the Orioles and Devil Rays.

Getting close to the end here.  Only seven left after this.  Where will the hat want to go?

Apparently, north to the border.

Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays' payroll has more than doubled since 2005, but it seems to be a fact of life int eh AL East.  Howver, this team isn't any closer to the postseason than it was two years ago. Though they do point to their winning record and second place finish ahead of the Boston Red Sox in 2006 as proof of improvement, this team still has a lot of holes to fill.

Starting Rotation

1. Roy Halladay (RHP) – For all the offseason changes and acquisitions, the Blue Jays will live and die on the health of their ace,  who hasn't put together a healthy season since winning the AL Cy Young Award in 2003.  Still, he did finished fourth in the league in innings pitched in 2006 despite forearm tightness and pitched quite well.  Halladay should pitch almost an entire season and should be able to last long enough to give the questionable bullpen enough of a lead to keep in the game.
2. A.J. Burnett (RHP) – Burnett wasn’t bad last year, but those numbers would look a lot better had Burnett pitched a full season and not spent part of it on the DL like he usually does.  With the departure of Ted Lilly, the Jays will be depending heavily on Burnett as he is their number two starter.  When Burnett is healthy, he’s a solid pitcher, especially when his stuff is clicking together.  When he’s not, or when he’s battling control issues, that’s when Burnett flames out like the Hindenburg. 
3. Gustavo Chacin (LHP) – Chacin was a disappointment last year, regressing from his solid 2005 performance and declining in wins and strikeouts, all the while suffering from a ballooning ERA.  He’ll have to get it together if the Jays hope to go into the playoffs.
4. Tomo Ohka (RHP) – Ohka is okay as a starter, able of putting together some reasonable performances whenever he’s healthy.  Ohka was one of the better starters available on the market and if he’s given a shot, he could surprise.  He did improve as the season went on last year after coming back from injury.
5. John Thompson (RHP) – This veteran right hander tried to dismiss possible indications of arm issues after his terrible year last year.  The Jays were willing to give him a shot.  Unlike Zambrano, I think Thompson is on his last legs.

Bullpen

• B.J. Ryan (Closer) – Ryan proved to be a worthwhile addition for the Jays, who needed a lights out stopper at the end of the pen, as Miguel Batista was better suited to be a starter.  Ryan put up all star numbers and finished third in the AL in saves and his ERA was second in the league.  He should be a solid stopper again this year.
• Brandon League (Setup Man) – The loss of Justin Speier hurts Toronto in the respect that they lack a proven setup man.  With that said, it’s hoped that League can suitably function in that capacity.  He looks like he’ll be fine, and he may even be able to spot close from time to time.
• Jason Frasor RHP) – Frasor will help split the setup load with League.  In spite of a mediocre record, Frasor was good after the All-star break.
• Scott Downs (LHP) – This capable swingman can start when he has to, but he’s far better as a middle reliever.
• Brian Tallet (LHP) – Tallet is a dependable lefty that can last for more than an inning when he’s needed to.
• Jeremy Accardo (RHP) – This enigmatic middle reliever imploded in September and will be relied upon to rediscover his rookie dominance.

Starting Lineup

1. Reed Johnson (LF) – Johnson has become an everyday player and has found his niche in the Toronto lineup, as a leadoff man, where his good approach to the plate have lead him to have a decent on base percentage and have allowed him to be productive.  Johnson, however, could be moved, as the Jays are trying to figure out a way to integrate Adam Lind into the lineup on a regular basis.
2. Alex Rios (RF) – Who is the real Alex Rios?  Is it the guy that hit .302 with 17 homers and 82 RBI’s last season, or is he the guy who averaged .293 with 3 Homers and 38 RBI’s in 7 seasons in the minors?  The Jays hope he’s somewhere in between that while continuing to be a solid performer who can get on base and set up some of the bigger bats in the lineup after him.  Rios has three years of service time left on him and just collected arbitration (he qualified for the exact amount of time needed to arbitration.  One fewer game would have resulted in an extra year of control left on him) this past offseason.  With top prospect Adam Lind ready for the lineup, the Jays have been shopping Rios, who can also play center, to other teams in hopes of getting pitching.  So far, no team has stepped up with a strong enough offer, though the Jays were reportedly hoping that the Marlins would give up a young starter in return for Rios.
3. Vernon Wells (CF) – I gotta give credit where credit is due, in this case, to the Jays for coming up with a long term deal for this solid centerfielder.  Wells appears to have returned to his 2004 form and he’s a solid hitter in the three spot, where his speed, power and excellent contact skills will result in a lot of opportunities for the middle of the lineup.
4. Troy Glaus (3B) – The Jays were able to trade for the veteran Glaus, who was also drawing interest from Boston, during the last off-season and he was effective for them.  Glaus is a solid middle of the order bat that can hit for power and can draw walks as well, all the while showing some solid plate discipline as well.  He’s a adequate defender and all in all should be good for another year.
5. Frank Thomas (DH) – GM J.P Ricciardi signed Thomas to give the team a regular DH, as last season, the Blue Jays used 14 different DHs, resulting in an overall production of 16 homers and tied for 12th in runs scored by their DHs.  Thomas had a terrific season last year with Oakland, putting himself closer to hitting 500 home runs and earning himself another payday in the process.  Thomas has said that he envisions himself playing until he's 42.  That may be a little too optimistic.  In spite of playing most of last season, he did miss 13 games with a quad strain.  If he stay’s healthy, he’ll hit fifth in the lineup and add another dangerous power bat. 
6. Lyle Overbay (1B) – Overbay is far from a huge power bat, but he’s not bad in the sixth spot, where his patient approach to the plate and his doubles power will work well.  Defensively, he’s got solid range and good hands. 
7. Gregg Zaun (C) – Zaun re-upped with Toronto after Rod Barajas inexplicably backed out of a deal.  Zaun set career highs in homers and slugging percentage at the age of 35, plus he’s a switch hitter.  However, Zaun is 35 and that’s usually when you start to lose your bat as a catcher. 
8. Aaron Hill (2B) – Hill is an excellent second baseman that many in the Toronto organization feel could eventually become a Gold Glove caliber second baseman.  He hits for a high average and works the count well for walks and reduces his strikeouts when he can.  He doesn’t have a lot of power but his excellent approach to the plate will keep his averages high and him on base.
9. Royce Clayton (SS) – Surely there were better options available than Clayton.  Clayton has never hit much and his best attribute, his defense, has slipped.  He’s got to be the backup, as I doubt he can start.  (Checks Roster) Never mind.  Clayton is the starter.  God help us all.

Bench

• Matt Stairs (DH) – I'm still wondering what exactly Stairs' role will be with the Jays considering that they have an established DH in Frank Thomas.  Stairs isn't the power hitter he used to be, but his on-base skills are still good and he's considered to be a clubhouse favorite.  This is one of the more questionable signings of the off-season.   The only way I can figure this out is that the Jays aren't completely sure that Thomas can stay healthy.
• Adam Lind (OF) – Lind is an outstanding offensive prospect who has never hit below .310 at any level while showing constantly improving power.  Lind also has some great plate discipline to go with his power as well.  The problem is that Lind isn’t an exceptional fielder, who he may be able to hold his own with some coaching.  Depending on what happens with Alex Rios, Lind will spend time alternating from the bench to the field to DH.
• Jason Smith (INF) – Smith is a decent lefty that can play all four infield positions, plus hit a little.
• John MacDonald (SS) – Strictly should be used as a defensive replacement.
• Jason Philips (C/1B) – Versatile young catcher is a solid defender and can play first as well.

Disabled List

• Victor Zambrano (RHP) – Zambrano has had control issues and durability problems and quite frankly, the Mets shouldn’t have traded for him back when they thought they were in contention, but weren’t.  He’s got average stuff that could make him a back of the rotation starter, provided that he improves his control and bounces back from TJ as expected.  Zambrano should improve as the season goes on, though if he recovers quickly (as Mets prospect Philip Humber did) he could be a steal for the Blue Jays.  I think he’ll begin the season on the DL, to allow him more time to get his control back.

Down On The Farm…

The Jays farm system has largely been crippled by their own GM.  Riccardi has had a very conservative approach to the draft and often selects college players, which is okay, but often times the result will be players with much lower ceilings.  To add further insult to injury, many potential impact starters were traded for veteran help and salaries.  The result is a lot of players that are nice role players, but almost no superstar quality talent.

• Ricky Romero (LHP) – This was one the more odd picks in the 2005 draft, as he was taken 6 over Troy Tulowitzki, who would look really good in Toronto.  Anyhow, Romero is barely going to be entering Double A, but going back to his draft status, his stuff didn’t justify the pick, as his fastball clocks in from 88-92 and his changeup is excellent, but his lack of an out pick creates problems for him and it’s awfully hard to be successful with just two pitches. 
• Curtis Thigpen (C) – A second round pick in 2004, Thigpen is a solid catcher with great plate discipline and some gap power.  He calls a great game and blocks pitches well.  The problem is that he won’t become much of a home run hitter and will hit late in the lineup.  In essence, he’ll be like the guy he’ll eventually replace, Gregg Zaun.
• Kyle Yates (RHP) – Yates is a smaller pitcher with average stuff that lives and dies by his curve.  His fastball is benign at 88 to 90 mph and he’s got a bit of durability issues.  Still, he may be usable as a fifth starter/swingman at some point.
• Josh Towers (RHP) – Towers is a command and control guy that has below average stuff.  He was destroyed throughout 2006.  He’ll be in the minors again where the Jays hope he can rediscover his command. 
• Casey Janssen (RHP) – Janssen is highly similar to Towers, though Janssen has a better arsenal, with another low fastball, but he’s got a slider, a change-up and a curveball that he throws very well and in turn induces a lot of groundballs. 

In Conclusion

This team will definitely mash, as Glaus, Wells and Thomas are all power bats that will certainly reign terror on opposing pitchers.  However, this rotation is far from solid and they are largely depending on unproven youngsters and chancy veterans to back up the rotation behind Halladay and Burnett.  With little prospect depth in the minors and the Wild Card likely coming out of the Central again this year, the Jays are almost certainly not going to make the playoffs, though they will compete and could finish as high as second.  I have them taking a slight step back to third this year, though if Boston continues to operate with that rather lackluster offense, they could finish higher.

Final Standings:  Third in The American League East.