Okay, time for my annual team preview.  Unlike last year, where I posted the divisions all together, I thought I'd break down the roster and forsee how the teams will fall together.  Teams are written in the order that I draw them out of a hat.

And the first is...

####.

New York Mets

The Mets dominated the National League East last season, riding a awesome offense along with a fantastic bullpen for much of the season.  But the rotation, thin at the best, was decimated wtih Victor Zambrano needing to undergo Tommy John and Pedro Martinez being shut down.  Thus, the team had to rely on unproven starter John Maine, whom I thought was a steal in the Kris Benson trade, the aging but still effective Tom Glavine, and the sudden resurgence of Orlando Hernandez.  The team was able to make the playoffs, but the lack of pitching cost the Mets dearly in the post-season, when they fell short against the St. Louis Cardinals, who's own pitching rose up to become dominant.

The off-season brought little relief, as the Mets underbid on Barry Zito, a pitcher they needed, who instead went to San Francisco.  The Mets' other option, Jeff Suppan, signed with Milwaukee when they failed to act.  So, the Mets are again having to depend on a staff that is too old and too young at the same time. 

Starting Rotation

1. Tom Glavine (LHP) – Glavine should really be in the middle of the rotation at this point in his career, but because of all the hell that the Mets have gone through as far as their rotation woes are concerned, he's their ace.  I think Glavine will get his 300th win this season, but asking him to put up a Cy Young caliber performance is asking too much of him.
2. Orlando Hernandez (RHP) – Hernandez was a non factor during his brief time with the Diamondbacks, but regained some semblance of his own dominance when he joined the Mets early in the season in the trade for Jorge Julio.  Much of this has to do with the fact that Hernandez moved from one of the most hitter friendly parks in the majors to one of the more pitcher friendly ones.  Hernandez can still eat innings like the old days, but his stuff has clearly fallen off the face of the earth.  He should be no more than a fifth starter.  On the Mets, he’s the number two.
3. John Maine (RHP) – Young starter that was deemed expendable by the Orioles wound up being the steal of the off-season.  Maine should be a solid middle of the rotation horse for many years to come. 
4. Mike Pelfrey (RHP) – A BIG Pitcher (6’7”), Pelfrey was forced to start only one year after he was drafted.  He did a good job, considering the circumstances, though it should be noted that he was quite raw at times, but that’s understandable.  Pelfrey’s got great talent, with his fastball that sits in the mid 90’s with good movement, occasionally touching 97, along with a cutter and a sinker and curve that scouts, Keith Law chief among them, think he should junk for a slider, which he started to in the AFL this season.  He’s got the potential to become a top of the line starter, but at the moment, Pelfrey will just be relied upon to keep the Mets alive at the fifth spot.  Depending on how strong Sosa and Perez do in Spring Training, Pelfrey will either be in the big club or back at Triple A.  I think he makes it.
5. Chan #### Park (RHP) – Park has really done nothing the last few years to prove that he's still capable of starting, but the Mets seem sold enough to give him a shot at the fifth starter's job.  I think Tomo Ohka would have been a better option.

Bullpen

• Billy Wagner (Closer) – Wagner was solid as the closer, as hoped, but he was shaky at times and looked very hittable at times, especially in the playoffs.  The off-season should have given him enough rest to be ready for another season, but, to be sure, the Mets should restrain using Wagner in tie game situations early on in the season.
• Aaron Heilman (Setup Man) – Heilman would prefer to start, but the fact is that he doesn’t have the repitoire to be a starter. 
• Ambiorix Burgos (RHP) – Burgos was signed as a 16-year-old out of the Dominican Republic in 2000, and he took Royals’ scouts breath away with a fastball that hit triple digits.  Unfortunately, he never was able to master a proper slider or changeup to take advantage of his heater and as a result, he was disappointing enough that the Royals traded him to the Mets (though the Royals did obtain Brian Bannister, a pitcher who could do well for them.)  Burgos could be a valuable closer and setup man, provided that the Mets are able to develop him, which I believe the Royals failed to do.
• Scott Schoeneweis (LHP) – Schoeneweis was able to parlay 16 dominant appearances for the Reds into a megabucks deal.  Only Scott Boras could do such a thing.  Anyhow, Schoeneweis is a sinker-slider pitcher who's significantly more effective against lefties.  He’s likely going to be a LOOGY, which honestly, I’m wondering why the Mets went out to get him.  Surely there were better options available via trade…
• Duaner Sanchez (RHP) – One of the Mets’ primary workhorses in the pen, it was a car accident that ended Sanchez’s season.  The Mets liked him enough to bring him back another season.  Sanchez will likely pitch seventh inning duty, setting up Heilman.
• Pedro Feliciano (LHP) – Now here’s a solid lefty reliever.  Last season was Feliciano’s first full season tour of duty in the majors.  He rewarded the Mets with a 2.06 ERA and a 7-2 record.  His biggest problem is that he can’t fielding, making groundballs a problem when hit back to him.
• Jorge Sosa (RHP) – Sosa was signed off the garbage heap after being non-tendered by the Cardinals.  Sosa has below average stuff and had issues with his control for much of last season.  It’s possible that he could rebound, especially with a talented offense and a pitcher’s ballpark, but in the end, it’s all going to depend on his ability to reclaim some semblance of his 2005 season.  In spite of him being signed as a starter, I think he’ll most likely wind up in the bullpen.

Projected Lineup

1. Jose Reyes (SS) – A great little speedster, Reyes became the first player to swipe 60-plus bases in back-to-back seasons since Marquis Grissom in 1991-92.  He was able to increase is average last season thank's to an improvement in plate discipline, ad he's got surprising power in his small frame.  He was only one home run and three triples short of joining Willie Mays (1957) as the only players in history with at least 20 doubles, triples, home runs and stolen bases.  His defense is solid and his range is pretty good as well.  The best part is that he's only 23 and bound to continue improving.  With Reyes now locked up long term, the Mets have ensured that this young talent isn't going anywhere..
2. Paul Lo Duca (C) – A solid number two hitter, Lo Duca doesn’t hit for much power, but he does hit for a pretty good average and he does a decent job of getting on base.  He’s also still a valuable catcher defensively and does a good job of managing his pitchers, though John Thompson will disagree. 
3. Carlos Delgado (1B) – Always a power hitter, Delgado has slugged at least 30 homers with at least 91 RBI in each of his past ten season.  While his batting average has dropped, he’s never really been a big batting average guy and he is getting older.  He remains a quality defender at first, but the most troubling stat on Delgado is his miserable .226 average against lefties and his declining on base percentage.  Still, all that side, Delgado looks like he’s got one more star caliber season before he begins to start seriously declining.
4. Carlos Beltran (CF) – After being regarded as a bust following a poor 2005 season, Beltran bounced back this past year, putting together a MVP caliber season.  Part of this is due to Beltran having protection in the lineup, though a lot also has to do with him finally being comfortable with Shea’s environment.  Beltran will be a solid middle of the order bat for years to come, plus the fact that he’s a Gold Glove caliber centerfielder helps matters a lot, don’t it?   The only knock on Beltran is the mediocre average and the fact that he doesn’t steal more often, but in reality, those are rather small quibbles about a quality player.
5. David Wright (3B) – A star n the making, Wright had a solid season last year and is a special hitter, looking to be capable of averaging at least a .300 batting average, 30 home runs and 90 or more RBI per season, plus playing Gold Glove Caliber defense at third (he will win one, just you watch.)  The most troubling stat about Wright is his miserable second half of the season and power outage following the Home Run Derby.  Still Wright is young and will improve as he ages (he’s only 24 years old.)   Hence, Wright will remain a solid contributor to the Mets for years to come.  He’s just not going to be the main guy carrying the offense, as he struggled with that role in 2005. 
6. Moises Alou (LF) – Alou is 40 years old, but he’s still a potent bat and can hit for a fair amount of power.  He can murder lefty pitching and should be valuable in this lineup, especially since he’s not expected to be the focus of the lineup.  The only problem is that he’s having trouble staying healthy, meaning that the reserves will see plenty of time subbing for him in later innings and double headers. 
7. Shawn Green (RF) – Green isn’t the offensive force he used to, as he’s been losing power for the past three years.  He’s still got potential to be a late order threat, but as I said, he’s not the force in the lineup he was when he was with the Dodgers.  Even worse, he’s losing mobility in the field, making him an adventure in right.  . 
8. Jose Valentin (2B) – Becoming the starter in May, Valentin posted good numbers and earned himself a raise this season along with the starting job. 

Bench

• Julio Franco (1B) – Still going strong even though he’s in his late 40’s, Franco did fine in limited duty last season with the Mets. He still has some pop in his bat and did well in pinch-hit duty.  With Carlos Delgado getting older, Franco should figure to get some playing time to spell him.
• Endy Chavez (OF) – Chavez’s value is that he can capably play all three outfield positions well and has enough of a bat to be able to adequately fill in for you in a extended capacity without killing you. 
• Anderson Hernandez (SS/2B) – Hernandez is still young enough to where he could develop into an average regular somewhere in the middle infield.  With Jose Valentine getting older, Hernandez could get a chance, but I think his small build will cause problems for him.
• Ramon Castro (C) – A decent enough catcher, defensively.  Offensively, he’s a whole in the lineup about the size of Manhattan.
• Lastings Milledge (OF) – I believe that Milledge will make the team, as the health of Alou and Green are far from sure things.  Milledge has the potential to be a star, but things haven’t worked out for him at Shea, with the questions of his character and maturity coming up.  However, to be realistic, Milledge can contribute to the Mets this season, whether it’s spelling Alou or Green or even playing some centerfield to boost his trade value.  But at this point, there’s very little left for him to accomplish in the minor leagues.

Disabled List

• Pedro Martinez (RHP) – Well, the collapse of Pedro Martinez finally came, in which Pedro’s body finally broke down, resulting in Martinez getting shut down for the season.  The loss of Martinez was a big reason why the Mets lost in the playoffs, as the Mets counted on him solidifying the rotation and pitching well in the off-season.  Martinez won’t be available until at least July, and it’s unknown what exactly he can give the Mets when he comes back.
• Guillermo Mota (RHP) – Technically not on the DL, but there isn’t really a place to put Mota, unless I create a list called “Suspended List.”  Mota was dominant once he was sent to the Mets late in the season.  Then came the steroid bust.  Mota won’t be an option until late May, so we won’t see how much of that dominance was chemically induced until then.  If it turns out that his performance was legitimate, then Mota will allow the Mets to

Down On The Farm…

The Mets do have some talented arms in the system, but many aren’t ready to graduate yet.  So, aside from a few options, like Humber and Soler, both detailed below, there is little help coming anytime soon.  Thank god that the lineup is mostly set.

• Oliver Perez (LHP) – Perez was one of the most talented young lefties in baseball until something made him god-awful.  Perez won only three games last year, but did come up big in the post-season.  The Mets still believe in his talent, otherwise they wouldn’t have traded for him.  He’ll likely be sent down though, to try and get his mechanics worked out. 
• Philip Humber (RHP) – Drafted in the first round in the 2004 Draft, Humber did well in limited innings until he had to undergo Tommy John, which cost him all of 2005 (Rice players seem to have developed a tendency for injury.)  Humber was able to come back in 2006 remarkably well and his velocity came back with him, unusual so soon after undergoing TJ.  Humber works the strike zone and has a nice repertoire with a low 90’s fastball and a hard curve, as well as a power changeup.  His control is still iffy, a common symptom after TJ, but should improve as time passes.  Depending on what happens with the Mets staff, be it injury or ineffectiveness, Humber will get a look this season.
• Alay Soler (RHP) – I’m not high on Soler.  His stuff isn’t dominant, and his conditioning has always been suspect.  He’s also old for a prospect and the difference between his potential and his reality is small.  He’s likely going to evolve into a swingman.

In Conclusion

The Mets should have some competition as far as the division goes, but I think that overall, their offense should carry them to the post-season for the second time in a row.  How the pitching staff holds up is a difference story, as I don't trust that rotation to stay together the whole season.  Unless they make a deal for another starter, this team is not advancing to the World Series.

Final Standing:  National League East Division Winner