The Rangers could have made a better offer than what the Twins actually got for Johan Santana.
While the Twins ultimately got a decent package of high upside prospects in Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber, Deolis Guerra, and Kevin Mulvey, the Rangers had the prospects to pull off a trade. However, I won’t tell you what the trade would have been, though I can tell you it would have kicked the #### out of the Mets offer.
Santana wouldn’t have approved a trade here.
First of all, this isn’t exactly the best ballpark for a flyball pitcher to flourish. Second of all, Santana, due to his no trade clause, would have vetoed a deal, as he had tremendous leverage over where he could go.
While Santana would have given the Rangers a top of the rotation starter, there simply was no way he would have approved a trade here, even if the Rangers offered six players, many of them good ones (#### it. RHP Eric Hurley, CF Brandon Boggs, SS Joaquin Arias, 2B German Duran, C Max Ramirez and CF Marlon Byrd), the Rangers wouldn’t even have the opportunity to negotiate an extension with him. It just wasn’t feasible.
On A Side Note…
Oakland, going back to the Santana deal one more time, probably had a better package in return than the Twins got for Santana. While I’m not high on the pitchers they received, Carlos Gonzalez should be a stud once he hits the big leagues and they got a hell of a masher in Chris Carter, who will be a beast once he comes up to the majors.
God I wish the Rangers could have gotten Carter. Stupid Otsuka….
Fearing Bedard In Seattle
I am going to fear Seattle’s rotation if and when the Bedard deal is done. While I should be happy about the fact that Seattle will be parting with some solid blue chippers, Bedard isn’t going to be a treat to face. In fact, matching up Millwood and Padilla against Hernandez and Bedard would be like sending you out to a gunfight with only a pair of pistols, while the enemy is firing bazookas. You have no chance (unless a rocket misfires, blowing up your opponent. Ah Doom, how I miss thee…)
Bringing Ryan Back A Complicated Affair
Nolan Ryan is apparently interested in the vacant Rangers’ presidency gig and Tom Hicks has been active in courting Ryan to return to the Rangers.
However, actually bringing Ryan back is going to be a lot of work.
For starters, Houston might not be willing to let Ryan go, as Drayton McLane may decide to expand Ryan's role in terms of player development and decisions. Plus, he enjoys the PR boom that Ryan gives the Astros, especially considering that he owns their Double and Triple A Franchises.
Which is another complications. Would the Rangers allow Ryan to keep his two minor league teams? Or would they force him to cede control of the franchises, likely to his sons Reese and Ried, if he's to be hired.
And if Ryan is indeed made President, how would that affect Jon Daniels' power. J.D. has pretty much acted pretty autonomous and if he were to lose control over some of the minor league and player development phases (which have been vastly improved since he took over), how would that hinder his ability to run the big league club?
I love Nolan, met him once (nice guy), but as much as I love him to come back to the Rangers, I don't know if the overall impact (non-economic) would be worth it.
Bad Job Of Roster Management
If you haven’t already seen, the Rangers designated Armando Galarraga for assignment a few days ago, likely in anticipation of a Marlon Byrd deal that isn’t going to happen.
My only question is why?
I know that the Rangers have some higher ceiling pitchers on the roster, but Galarraga has plenty of upside and could wind up being a Chad Qualls type reliever in a couple of years.
Why the designation?
If anyone deserved to be DFA”d, it was Nelson Cruz, who would have made it through waivers and would have been given a Spring Training Invite along with a minor league deal.
Instead, Galarraga gets the axe and he’ll likely get claimed on waivers by a team without 40 Man space, likely the Astros, who have room in their system and 40 for him.
Unless there is a trade coming in the next few days that we haven’t heard about, this isn’t a good move and one that’s likely to blow up in the faces of the Rangers. So far, there hasn't been word on him being claimed (8 days down, two to go.) I only hope that the Rangers' luck holds out.
One Year Later, Still Irritated At Rod Barajas
I'm still pissed at Rod Barajas.
You cost us one extra draft pick after booking from your original deal with the Jays, you ########.
So full of hate that, one year later, he signs with them anyway.
Grrr.....
Will post the Prospect Six Pack Later. I got to break something. Long day....
Barring any other moves, the Rotation appears as follows:
Kevin Millwood (RHP)
Vicente Padilla (RHP)
Jason Jennings (RHP)
Brandon McCarthy (RHP)
Kason Gabbard (LHP)
That makes for a solid, but unspecacular rotation. However, if Millwood, Padilla and Jennings improve to their 2006 seasons, rather than their 2007's, that's a potential playoff rotation, especially if McCarthy continues to improve and Gabbard doesn't implode. However, that's a lot to ask. If anything, at the very least, Jennings could bring back a draft pick, or pitch well enough that when Texas is out of it by May, they could begin entertaining trade talks and get back a good player or two.
Coco Crisp Deals Are Dead
There's been a lot of rumors tossed around, and a lot of talk from Red Sox fans that the Red Sox should send Coco Crisp over to the Rangers for one of their highly regarded catching prospects. Peter Gammons, in a recent chat, even had the Rangers (and Oakland) being the likely favorites for Crisp, seeing both teams as needing players.
They are delusional. It ain't happening.
Back when the off-season first started, there was talk that the Rangers and Red Sox had agreed on a potential Crisp for Gerald Laird swap. It was understandable, as it was two players who had no future in their respective organizations, had three cheap years of control left each and filled holes for each organization. The Rangers have no centerfielder and Varitek isn't going to last forever. It was a classic apples and oranges trade that should have worked.
However, the Red Sox instead decided A) to enter into the Johan Santana sweepstakes and B) change the offer for the Rangers, hoping to net more prospects and get a lot more value for Crisp than he was probably worth.
Texas backed out and instead got Josh Hamilton, who has some risk, but also a lot more of a ceiling than Crisp had and has more service time.
So, as you can see, there isn't room for Texas and Boston is now backed into a corner, as they have a brewing problem on their hand and the number of places they can send Crisp to is drying up fast.
So no, there will be no Coco for Texas.
Sorry.
Bottsy At First...Not A Good Idea
Jason Botts apparently is going to see time at first base and will make the team as the platoon partner for Frank Catalonotto and Ben Broussard in left and at first.
I'm not so sure that first base is a good idea. Botts was converted to left field after back issues forced him there. I don't have much experience as far as diamond experience (I was a catcher in high school), but as far as first base goes, it does involve a lot of bending and leaning. And if Botts' back is as balky as it sounds, this might not go well.
On the other hand, Texas has a fantastic medical team, so the Rangers might be able to keep him healthy. Who knows?
Where To Send Shelton To
With Shelton still passing through waivers, I think it's a fair possibility that he's going to get claimed. WIth that in mind, the Rangers should look into seeing what they could get for him.
Though streaky, Shelton is a decent player that can play the four corners and he's a young alternative to some of the usual suspects (Sean Casey anyone?) And, taking a look around the league, there are some places where he'd fit in nicely.
The most immediate fit is San Francisco, unless they want to use Rich Aurillia there. However, in terms of prospects, I don't see much that San Fran would have to offer, as all their best prospects were either just drafted or are named Angel Villalona. Sergio Romo, a live arm that is destined for the bullpen, would be the best fit.
Is there anything else I could do? I don't think so. I would say Florida, but Shelton might be too expensive for them (and I'm being serious. Florida and Oakland seem to be racing each other to see who can get the lower payroll.) The Yankees would be another alternative, but not only do they have too many roster spots taken up by the dead (Giambi), the rude (Duncan) and the Betemiet, but they also seem to be waiting for Mark Teixeira to inevitably hit the market so they can spend the Giambi savings on him.
So, I'd call up Brian Sabean and ask if he's willing to do a Romo for Shelton swap. Not only would it net the Rangers something, think of the newspaper headlines in Dallas when it's announced that the Rangers have just brought in their own Romo. It would be classic.
Rangers May Have Waited Too Long To Sell High On Luis Mendoza
I like Luis Mendoza more than most. However, I think the Rangers may have waited too long to sell on him, as I think his value has peaked.
There's been a lot of talk about Mendoza being a potential back of the rotation starter for the Rangers, and that he could even push one of the vets out of the rotation.
Please.
Mendoza has done nothing to really merit the love he has gotten. He's been rather inconsistent, has been released by an organization at least once (Boston) and despite a nice run here in Texas, that was only after a late surge.
Honestly, I would have let people know that Mendoza was available, and maybe have made a trade (possibly with Laird.)
A return to school and an increased workload at work due to sick leave has cut into my blogging time. Not cool.
Ah well, time for a collective group of thoughts about baseball.
Scott Rolen and Troy Glaus Traded For Each Other
Kinda a odd deal, considering that both are high priced deals with huge landmines attached to them (Health) but overall the deal does work to the favor of each team in one way or another.
WIth Rolen, the Blue Jays gain a Gold Glove defender at third base, which would help compensate for the lead glove of David Eckstein, at the cost of some offense. However, Eckstein is better than the shuffle at short the Jays had and there is the off chance that Rolen can prove himself to be semi-adequate with the bat. More than anything, however, the Jays need some type of return from Vernon Wells, who disappointed last season after signing for superstar money with the Jays.
In Glaus, the Cardinals get a big bat that is needed to help bolster the offense, which is, to be frank, pathetic outside of Pujols. More than anything, however, the Cardinals needed to diffuse the situation between Tony LaRussa and Rolen, which was made all but irreparable after LaRussa poured gas on that particular fire this off-season. The signing of Cesar Izturis does help improve the defense enough where the Cardinals can suffer through Glaus' hands of stone, and the move to natural grass and away from Toronto's turf should prove to be beneficial in the long run for Glaus.
All in all, it's a good gamble for both sides, but more importantly, it clears up some potential locker room disaster that would have exploded during the season had either player remained with their former teams.
Grade For Both Sides: B
Thoughts On The Kotsay Trade
I was going to rant about how the Braves should have just offered Andruw Jones arbitration, keeping him around for one more year, as he would have accepted, and keeping the offense together.
Instead, they pull this trade.
To be honest, I gotta give Billy Beane all the credit in the world on this one, as I think Kotsay is done. He's not the defender he once was and in terms of offense, he's not going to give you much in return. In all honesty, the Braves would have been better off just giving the job to Josh Anderson for the season and just gone with it from there. At least he's mostly paid for.
Oh wait. Oakland got two prospects, one of which, Joey Devine, the Braves' first round pick from two years ago, will likely help out Oakland in the bullpen this season. And they also got Jamie RIchmond, a right hander that could be a fifth starter. That's quite a haul for a broken player.
Anyhow, that's my take on that.
Oakland Grade - B
Atlanta Grade - D
Lost A Bet
To my friend, who's an Astros fan, on the Cowboy Game on Sunday.
So, expect the first (and only) Astros Report sometime this week.
That’s all I an say after Billy Beane, deciding that he had gone the distance with the club he had, decided to blow the whole thing up and start afresh. Trading two of his most valuable commodities (Dan Haren and Nick Swisher), Beane went and traded them both for a load of prospects, many of which will be arriving at Oakland’s front door within the year.
What this has done is re-energize a Athletics farm system that was shallow in terms of talent and was arguably in the bottom third of baseball and elevated it to the middle of the pack.
So, let’s take a look at how the system would rate now. Those that made the original Oakland list are in green. The new arrivials are standard black. Some of these prospects you have seen before (Arizona’s Prospect Report), but overall, there is some new content to check out here.
Athletics Top 15
1 – Daric Barton (1B)
DOB: 8/16/85
Drafted: 1st round, 2003, California High School (Cardinals)
2008 Club: Oakland Athletics (MLB)
Height/Weight: 6-0/205
Bats/Throws: L/R
The Skinny: Barton was regarded, at the time of the Mark Mulder deal, to be the real centerpiece of the deal. Since then, Barton hasn’t disappointed, but with the emergence of Dan Haren as the ace of the staff, Barton is strictly a side piece that could make the entire deal a slam dunk winner for Oakland (considering that Kiki Calero also came in the deal.) He was called up late in the year and left a good enough impression for people to be hopeful for the future.
The Good: The gifted natural hitter was holding his own as a 20-year-old at Triple-A before breaking a bone in his elbow in a freak collision on a pickoff throw. Both his approach and his pitch recognition are above-average on a major-league level, and he can make contact on pitches of any type in any location.
The Bad: The biggest power potential that was once seen in Barton has never arrived, meaning that Barton is going to be a rather unconventional first baseman. Many believe that while he’s got the power to hit 30+ homers annually, he may never do so. As far as his defense, Barton was originally drafted as a catcher, but no one thought he’d be able to stay there. Oakland hoped to develop his bat faster, so they moved him to first base. Because of the power outage, Barton was moved to third, where he profiled better, but his terrible fielding resulted in a move back to first. Hence, he’s awful defensively.
Projection: Low. Barton has nothing left to prove and is ready to start contributing to the big league club this season, so this is likely the last year we’ll see him.
What He Can Be: A First Baseman that will get on base and hit twenty Homers.
2008 Course Of Action: The job is Barton’s starting next year, and with Jack Cust now installed as the everyday DH, this will likely force Oakland to trade Dan Johnson. That said, Barton probably isn’t a player I would be thrilled to have as my everyday first baseman, but he’s serviceable and in time would allow Oakland to take it’s time with a better power option in Chris Carter.
2 – Faustino De Los Santos (RHP)
DOB: 2/15/86
Signed: 2005, Dominican Republic (White Sox)
2008 Club: Stockton Ports (High A)
Height/Weight: 6-0/205
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Seeming to come out of nowhere, De Los Santos has dominated the American minor leagues and gave Low A Kannapolis an ace at the top of it’s rotation last season. He appeared in the Futures Game and game up a homer to uberprospect Justin Upton before a promotion to High A, where he remained until the trade for Nick Swisher.
The Good: De Los Santos has a neat fastball, sitting in the low 90’s and touches 96 with some sinking action. He’s got a very good curve with late movement that is a plus pitch. He’s also begun work on improving his changeup.
The Bad: The usual. De Los Santos needs to continue building his durability in order for him to continue logging some more innings, along with work to improve his arsenal of tools. He’s also a bit overaggressive, which costs him velocity and command over his stuff.
Projection: High. De Los Santos needs more experience, which could only come with time, as well as refinement. He also needs to improve that changeup, lest he be limited to a bullpen role. Whatever he is, he should do it well. This is a potential All-Star talent the Athletics have gotten, a arm that rivals many of those that are in the Rangers’ system, and they’ll do their best to make sure De Los Santos comes to fruition.
What He Can Be: A Rotation Strikeout Artist
2008 Course Of Action: De Los Santos was going to start in High A for the White Sox until the trade went down. I don’t see anything that would change, except that he’ll be heading to the California League instead of the Carolina League, and hence going to a hitter’s league instead of a pitcher’s league. I don’t think it’ll affect him too much, as with his stuff, he should handle the change with no problem.
3– Carlos Gonzalez (RF)
DOB: 10/17/85
Signed: Venezuela, 2002 (Diamondbacks)
2008 Club: Sacramento River Cats (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 6-1/200
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: Gonzalez’s stock is took a bit of a tumble early one, but he was able to adjust to the more advanced level of pitching in Double A and earned himself a promotion to Tucson. All in all, it was a good season, but the emergence of Chris B. Young and Justin Upton in Arizona, plus the extension given to Eric Byrnes resulted in Gonzalez lacking a place to play. Hence, he became an extremely attractive player to acquire and was the centerpiece of the Dan Haren trade.
The Good: Gonzalez has some of the best tools in the system. Gonzalez has a smooth, fluid stroke, above-average power, good range in right field. He hits to a decent average and has a cannon for an arm. He’s got some wheels on him as well.
The Bad: Gonzalez is a bit aggressive at the plate, leading to high strikeout totals. There have been some concerns over his work ethic at times, but Gonzalez kicked it up a notch when competition arrived in the form of Aaron Cunningham.
Projection: Average. Gonzalez has the tools, the youth and some success in the upper minors, but he still needs some seasoning. In my opinion, Gonzalez should remain in Triple A for the meantime, where he could put up some monster numbers in the Pacific Coast League next year, before allowing him to take Swisher’s old place in right.
What He Come: An All-Star Right Fielder
2008 Course Of Action: I feel Gonzalez should be sent to Triple A, where he can finish his development process, but the amount of trades and lack of warm bodies to fill up the major league bench in Oakland (which consists of, right now, Travis Buck, Mark Kotsay and Jack Cust, respectively), Oakland could be tempted to promote him early and have him skip the level.
4 – Gio Gonzalez (LHP)
DOB: 9/19/85
Drafted: 1st round, 2004, Florida High School (White Sox)
2008 Club: Sacramento River Cats (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 5-11/185
Bats/Throws: R/L
The Skinny: After a year with the Phillies, Gonzalez was sent back to the White Sox in the Freddy Garcia deal. His 2007 season was pretty good and has merited the trade back. However, in Kenny William’s delusion of contention, he was sent to Oakland as a part of the Nick Swisher trade..
The Good: Gonzalez is a K machine, pure and simple. However, what’s really special is that he has increased his groundout totals, always a plus at the Cell. His fastball has good velocity for a southpaw, but his curve is a filthy pitch that is his out pitch. His changeup, once a work in progress, is becoming a solid pitch as well, giving him a complete starters arsenal.
The Bad: Command is still and issue and will result in him getting some tough nights in the bigs. Despite a reduction in his flyball tendancies, they nonetheless will be a concern moving forward. His build also doesn't lend much to durability and ESPN’s Keith Law has reported that Gonzalez gets rattled on the mound and doesn’t respond to adversity right now.
Projection: Low. Gonzalez should be a factor for the A’s in a year’s time after some time spent in Triple A. He should be much better as an Athletic due to their stadium than he would have ever been with the White Sox. Still, there seems to be a sense that Chicago sold high on Gonzalez and he might not be as good as I feel he is.
What He Can Be: A Number Two Starter.
2008 Course Of Action: Gonzalez isn’t ready to be a part of the Oakland rotation just yet, meaning he’ll be a Rivercat to begin the year. However, he should be up with the big league club come August, and should be a rotation fixture come 2009.
5 – Aaron Cunningham (OF)
DOB: 4/24/86
Drafted: 6th round, 2005, Everett Junior College (White Sox)
2008 Club: Midland Rockhounds (Double A)
Height/Weight: 5-11/195
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Cunningham has been involved in a pair of trades now as well, as he was originally traded by the White Sox to the Diamondbacks for second base prospect Danny Richar, in order fill the hole in second base for 2008. However, the Diamondbacks were able to develop Cunningham further from the raw product he was when he arrived, as Cunningham jumped three levels and ended the year in Double A. He was then a part of the trade for Dan Haren, giving more outfield depth to the A’s.
The Good: Cunningham doesn’t have something that he does best, but he does most things well. He’s got a great swing and makes solid contact with the ball, plus some solid power potential, possible 20 bomb potential. He hits to all fields and he’s got solid speed on him as well. Many were wondering if Cunningham could play anywhere other than left field, but it turns out that he’s not half bad in center or right field. All in all, he’s a good prospect.
The Bad: Cunningham's pitch recognition still needs work, as he doesn’t draw enough walks.
Projection: Average. Cunningham is still developing as a player, but he's got a good tool set. Many are divided as to how they seem Cunningham long term. I may have overrated him originally, but I believe he’s better than the fourth outfielder projection many are tabbing him with already. Give him two years and you’ll have a solid player, depending on what you want to do with Travis Buck, you could shop one of the two at a later date for something nice.
What He Can Be: A average left fielder.
2008 Course Of Action: Cunningham will be headed to Midland for the year, with a possible promotion to Sacramento in the future if he continues to hit. Don’t expect to see him anytime soon in Oakland however, as he’s got a bit to go.
6 – Chris Carter (1B)
DOB: 12/18/86
Drafted: 15th round, 2005, Nevada High School (White Sox)
2008 Club: Stockton Ports (High A)
Height/Weight: 6-4/220
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Carter is already looking like a late round steal, and has been mashing ever since the White Sox drafted him. However, the White Sox, under the delusion that they are close to contention, traded him for Carlos Quentin (which in itself isn’t bad, as Quentin is a solid young player who filled a need), but Carter didn’t stay long in the desert and was a part of the Dan Haren trade. He was very nearly a Texas Ranger, however, as a deal for Akinori Otsuka that would have sent Carter to Texas was all but done until the White Sox pulled out due to Otsuka’s medicals.
The Good: Carter is quite simply the best power prospect in the Athletics’ system. He’s got great strength and power to all fields and has improved on his plate recognition, which was good to begin with. Now, Carter is able to draw a lot more walks while reducing his strikeouts and is able to choose his pitch to drive it out of the park.
The Bad: Carter is limited to first base due to limited athleticism and is a bad defender even there. While he may eventually be a passable defender, he’s a long term DH in the making. He’s also a below average runner.
Projection: Average. Carter is still a very unpolished prospect, but he has the potential to be the first pure power bat Oakland has had since Jason Giambi was wearing green and gold. He’ll take some time, but he’s a long term middle of the order run producer in the making and that is nothing to sneeze at.
What He Can Be: A Slugging First Baseman
2008 Course Of Action: Carter will likely take it one level at a time and will spend the year in Stockton, where he should have plenty of opportunities to put up some impressive power numbers this season with all the small parks in the California League.
7 – Trevor Cahill (RHP)
DOB: 3/01/88
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2006, California High School
2008 Club: Stockton Ports (High A)
Height/Weight: 6-3/195
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: A surprise pick for the Athletics last year, Cahill had a solid senior season in high school as a first year pitcher, but fell after illness caused him to tail off. Oakland took him and thus far, Cahill has continued the tradition of Kane County pitching dominance. But his big coming out party was when he made a spot start for Sacramento at the end of the season and carried a perfect game and a no-hitter once the perfecto was gone until the 8th. Now that’s awesomeness.
The Good: Cahill’s biggest strength is his command and control, which are surprisingly good for a young pitcher. He’s able to locate the ball low and induce groundballs. He throws in the low 90’s and can touch 90’s, but his best pitch is a spike curveball that has wicked break. He's a solid athlete and is regarded to be an excellent character guy.
The Bad: Cahill doesn't over-power anyone. He also needs to refine a third pitch.
Projection: High. Cahill is still developing as a pitcher, as he was only pitching for a year after he was drafted, but the promise is there for him to be a capable major league starter.
What He Can Be: A Number 3 starter, maybe a two.
2008 Course Of Action: Cahill will be heading to the California League, where his groundball tendencies should help him survive the year in the extreme hitters league.
8 – James Simmons (RHP)
DOB: 9/29/86
Drafted: 1st Round, 2007, UC Riverside
2008 Club: Midland Rockhounds (Double A)
Height/Weight: 6-3/205
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Simmons was regarded to be one of the most polished pitchers in the draft and was rated as one of the closest pitchers to the majors. After going 11-3 with a 2.40 ERA in his junior season at UC Riverside, the Athletics took him in the 1st round, where he has already reached Double A.
The Good: Simmons’ game is all about command and control and he has it in ####s. His stuff is okay, but not overwhelming, with a fastball that sits around 90-92, complimented by a plus changeup and an average breaking ball.
The Bad: Simmons isn’t overpowering and while he may be close to the majors, he’s not a sure fire star or anything. He’s pretty much what I would call a right handed Joe Saunders, a guy that takes the ball every fifth day and gives you a shot to win. He also loses speed on his fastball late in a game.
Projection: Low. Simmons will rise quickly once he’s assigned to repeat Double A again. Again, he’s got limited upside, which is the only thing you can really hold against him as far as his tools go.
What He Can Be: A back of the rotation starter.
2008 Course Of Action: Look for Simmons to repeat Double A this year before he gets an assignment to Triple A, where Oakland hopes he might be able to be a factor for a September call up.
9 – Kevin Melillo (2B)
DOB: 5/14/82
Drafted: 5th round, 2004, University of South Carolina
2008 Club: Sacramento River Cats (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 6-0/190
Bats/Throws: L/R
The Skinny: Melillo’s 2007 campaign is pretty much the same for what you would expect for him. He really is just what he is, an average second baseman that could be a steady regular in the majors.
The Good: An offensive minded second baseman, Milillo has a short, quick swing that has suprising pop. He works the count well, gets on base, and all the usual things that Oakland likes it’s players to do. His defensive fundamentals are good. All in all, he’s near ready for the show and could be a producer in the 6 or 7 hole.
The Bad: Melillo has had some minor knee issues in the past and when he falls in love with the long ball, he gets pull happy. He also has below average range and hands, and is nowhere near the Gold Glover type defense Oakland has come to expect from it’s second basemen.
Projection: Low. Melillo is ready for the show and with this year looking like a rebuilding one, Oakland would be wise to see what they have.
What He Can Be: An average second baseman.
2008 Course Of Action: Ellis has recently had his $5 million club option for 2008 exercised, but that doesn’t mean he’ll remain on the team, especially now that Oakland is in full scale rebuilding mode. Ellis is pretty attractive right now as a cheap date and could fetch a decent prize while allowing Melillo to play everyday.
10 – Sean Doolittle (1B)
DOB: 9/26/86
Drafted: 1st Round (S), 2007, Virginia
2008 Club: Stockton Ports (High A)
Height/Weight: 6-3/190
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: Doolittle was on the rise after a year in Virginia and was projected to be picked somewhere in the lower end of the first round. However, Porcello’s fall along with some other shenanigans with the Pirates resulted in Doolittle falling into the supplemental round, where Oakland took him. He had a pretty good debut for Oakland.
The Good: An athletic first baseman, Doolittle makes good, consistent solid contact from the left side and should hit for average in the future. He has an above average arm, which was seen from his days as a two way player at Virginia, plus he shows decent range and can even run a bit too.
The Bad: Doolittle lacks any sort of power potential at first base, which isn’t what you want out of a power position.
Projection: Average. Doolittle may rise quickly and while he may not have home run power, doubles power may exist within him.
What He Can Be: A average first baseman that hits for average, but not for power.
2008 Course Of Action: Doolittle has the talent to be a productive major leaguer, but it won’t be for Oakland. Barton is now the Athletics’ first baseman and the A’s now have a stronger but unfortunately for him, he’s also blocked by both Dan Johnson and Daric Barton, meaning that in the future, Doolittle’s likely value to Oakland is trade bait.
11 – Henry Rodriguez (RHP)
DOB: 2/25/87
Signed: 2003, Venezuela
2008 Club: Midland Rockhounds (Double A)
Height/Weight: 6-1/175
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: A big signing out of Venezuela a few years ago has taken a big step forward with the Cougars this year, though his record doesn’t show for it. Still, it’s pretty impressive considering how raw he was last year when he was torched in the Arizona Rookie League.
The Good: Rodriguez has the best raw stuff in the organization, as his fastball sits in the low to mid 90’s and has been clocked as high as 100. His curveball and changeup look like they could eventually be plus pitches, which could give him a potentially lethal arsenal if he’s able to put it all together. All in all, he’s a project, but one that could pay off big.
The Bad: Rodriguez is, as I’ve said, a raw product, and he’s had some issues with control that have resulted in some ugly outings for him. There are also maturity issues with Rodriguez, but that really isn’t unexpected.
Projection: Very High. Rodriguez could become a beast if he continues to work on his stuff. He’s more than just an arm strength type of prospect and he’s got the skill set to be a solid middle of the rotation K machine if he continues to develop on schedule. Still, he’s got a long way to go.
What He Can Be: A middle of the rotation strikeout machine.
2008 Course Of Action: With another season under his belt in Double A, Rodriguez could very well help his cause to eventually become a option for Oakland come 2009 or 2010, joining some of the other young athletics in the rebuilding effort.
12 – Ryan Sweeney (CF)
DOB: 2/20/85
Drafted: 1st round, 2003, Iowa High School
2008 Club: Sacramento River Cats (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 6-4/215
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: The former first rounder did nothing to shake his bust tag and didn’t earn a late season call up, even with Chicago’s less than stellar outfield situation. Chicago was shopping him furiously and finally got to get rid of him in Swisher deal.
The Good: Sweeney is big, athletic, and has some offensive skills. He has a quick swing, some power and makes good contact. He doesn’t’ strikeout often and has enough wheels to play center, along with a strong arm.
The Bad: Sweeney was always to projected to hit for power. That obviously haven’t happened and most don’t see him as a centerfielder long term. He’s also got issues against lefties as well.
Projection: Low. Sweeney may be able to stick with Oakland as a centerfielder in the short term, if they feel he might be able to be adequate in center, and he may be able to tap into that long dormant power potential with the right coaching. I kinda doubt it, though.
What He Can Be: A starting centerfielder
Timetable: While Sweeney has clearly stagnated, it’s hard to see him avoiding a third year at Triple-A without a monster spring training. This next year is absolutely pivotal for him.
13 – Jermaine Mitchell (CF)
DOB: 11/2/84
Drafted: 5th round, 2006, UNC-Greensboro
2008 Club: Stockton Ports (High A)
Height/Weight: 6-0/200
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: . Taken from a small school, many felt that Mitchell would only be organizational filler, a fourth outfielder at best. He's since proven to be potentially better than that after another solid season, this time for Kane County.
The Good: Mitchell could be one of the latest Oakland scouting department steals if he continues to produce. Mitchell is a solid centerfielder with a good arm, good range and solid speed. He’s also got a quick bat and some excellent plate discipline. All in all, he’s a good package of tools that could really blossom into something good.
The Bad: Mitchell’s swing is complex and needs to be simplified. The power that was thought to have been in Mitchell hasn’t manifested himself. He’s also murdered by right handers and had some extreme home-away splits as well, meaning that he’s got some work to do unless he wants to be a platoon centerfielder.
Projection: High. Mitchell took a step forward in his development, not as big as Oakland may have expected, but it’s a start.
What He Can Be: An everyday big-league outfielder.
2008 Course Of Action: I expect Mitchell to be the Ports' starting centerfielder this season. Oakland eventually sees him to be a centerfielder for the future option, though at the moment, he's still got a long way to go.
14 – Brett Anderson (LHP)
DOB: 2/1/88
Drafted: 2nd round, 2006, Oklahoma High School (Diamondbacks)
2008 Club: Visalia Oaks (High A)
Height/Weight: 6-4/215
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: Last year, Anderson was one of the more difficult high school pitchers to evaluate, and his bonus demands resulted in him falling out of the first and supplemental rounds. The Diamondbacks were intrigued enough to pull the trigger on him, even though he wasn't a power pitcher and never will be. His final line was 11-7 with a 3.07 ERA between Low and High A, but Arizona won’t realize the returns on their investment, as he’s now an A.
The Good: The son of Oklahoma State coach Frank Anderson, Anderson's mechanics are solid and he has remarkable control of his breaking stuff and off-speed pitches. He's got a very deep repertoire, with three solid pitches, the best being a changeup that he can throw for strikes. He’s got a good pitcher’s build and could even add a little more mass.
The Bad: Anderson is also not very athletic and his fastball clocks in the high 80's, touching 91 on occasion.
Projection: Average. Anderson still has a lot of work to do in terms of improving himself, but his ability to induce groundballs and log in innings should result in some success in the majors. I feel he’s been overrated some due to his results, which are misleading, but his stuff isn’t fantastic and in the American League, he should fit in as a Number Three or Four starter. But hey, Barry Zito was able to last for a while with less than impressive repertoire and one major money pitch.
What He Can Be: An innings eater.
2008 Course Of Action: Anderson got hit hard in the California League and likely will repeat there to begin next year.
15 – Javier Herrera (OF)
DOB: 4/9/85
Signed: 2001, Venezuela
2008 Club: Sacramento River Casts (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 5-10/160
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: After missing a year thanks to Tommy John Surgery, Herrera had a mostly average comeback season. While it’s not pretty, it’s still a promising development and should be expected form a guy coming off TJ.
The Good: Herrera He has above-average hitting skills to go with plus power and speed, as well as good range to both sides in centerfield and an above-average arm.
The Bad: Herrera's conditioning is a bit of an issue, as he did put on some weight during his inactivity, but he was able to drop most of it. He’s also a bit reckless on the field, plus his power potential hasn’t manifested itself quite yet.
Projection: High. Herrera is still working to come all the way back from TJ, but so far so good.
What He Can Be: A above average centerfielder
2008 Course Of Action: Expect the Athletics to push Herrera a bit by promoting him to Triple A, where he could work well if he’s finally able to get his tools together.
Final Thoughts
With the rebuilding effort now in full swing, Oakland has a good deal of prospect depth to develop to form the core of their next championship core. With little in terms of long term contracts other than those that are immobile (Chavez, Crosby) and one major one leaving the books after this year (Kotsay), Oakland has the financial flexibility to work with to get this set of prospects going and locked up to some near term deals when the time comes. All in all, Oakland has enough to field a contender with what they have in their system, though the pitching won’t be as explosive as it once was, back in the day when the Big Three roamed MacAfee Coliseum.
One thing to note, however, is that Oakland hasn’t done a particularly good job of drafting high ceiling, star level talent. Much of their new top 15 is from outside of the organization, with 8 of the total top 15 and 6 of the top 10 being drafted by other squads. While much kudos needs to be given to Oakland for getting them, they do need to do a better job of drafting their own star players and not always playing it safe. Spending some more money on later round talents would be a start and revamping the international scouting system would be another way to help keep the pipeline to talent flowing to Oakland.
Sources, Scouting Reports, and Thanks to: Kevin Goldstein (Baseball Prospectus), Keith Law (ESPN), Soxprospects.com, B.J. Medrano, Jim Callis And The Rest Of Baseball America, Jonathan Mayo (MLB.com), MiLB.com, Sam Corral and Erica Belmontes, Ernie Carlson, Lonestarball.com, Jamey Newberg (Newbergreport.com), Brewerfan.net and Mike Hindman (Rangers Farm Report)
TIme when I try to forecast who will get into the Hall of Fame.
And every year, I've been wrong except for last year, when no brainers Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken got in (I whiffed on Gossage twice already.)
No matter.
Here's this year's edition.
Cooperstown Locks
Rich "Goose" Gossage – This is the year Goose gets in. He got close last season, even with Ripkin and Gwynn on the ballot and will almost certainly make the hall of fame, barring any sort of mental lapse amongst the voters. There is no reason why it should have taken this long, but as I have said, I believe that Gossage’s years as a setup man may have hurt his case for the Hall of Fame.
Jim Rice – There’s been a lot of debate recently as to whether or not Rice truly is Hall of Fame worthy. Rice does have some good career averages, and he’s got 382 HR’s, though that isn’t good enough for a man with the reputation for a power hitter. His numbers were partially inflated by Fenway, but he did net a MVP award in 1978. He does get bonus points for being a slugger in a Pitcher’s Era, however and overall, with his support in Boston and much of the Eastern Seaboard, I say he gets in this year. I don’t agree with it, however.
Dark Horses
Bert Blyleven – A great pitcher, ranks fifth all time in strikeouts (3701), nine all time in shutouts, and 13th all time in innings. His career record is great (287-250) his ERA is solid (3.31) and has a career ERA of 2.47 in the post season. If he had better run support, he’d easily have over 300 wins. He should have been in a long time ago, but for some reason, voters are reluctant to admit him in, yet they are upset over why a lesser pitcher, Jack Morris, whom Blyleven laps in every category and is even better in the post-season than Morris, is not in. There’s been a rise of support for Blyleven. Unfortunately, it won’t be enough.
Tim Raines – Raines merits induction, as he was one of the best Leadoff Men in baseball for much of his career. He hit .294 lifetime, tallied 2605 hits, has a career on base percentage of .385, and scored 1571 times. People crack on his stolen bases, saying that he was afraid to drop his stolen base percentage when in reality, Raines stole bases only when necessary, not just to pad stats. He also walked more than he struck out. However, Raines won’t get his due, as people will again feel he wasn’t as good as Henderson, his rival as far as leadoff men are concerned, plus his cocaine use. Raines may have lasted even longer in baseball if he hadn’t played much of his career on the hard Astroturf in Montreal. I feel she should get in. The voters are divided so far.
Screwed
Lee Smith – A good closer, is number two on the All-Time Saves List (478), and truckload of innings logged in. His career ERA is good (3.03) and he was usually consistent. However, what kills Smith is that most people see him as a compiler and is regarded by many to be consistent, but not dominant. The fact that he only played on two playoff teams and was 0-2 with an 8.44 ERA in the postseason doesn’t help him much. Still, accumulating 478 saves is amazing (just ask Trevor Hoffman), but unfortunately, it’s looking more and more like Smith will be at the mercy of the Veteran’s committee and won’t be elected by the BBWAA.
Tommy John – Almost as good as Blyleven, in terms of Wins (288-231) and ERA (3.34), John would have been a lock if he had just won 300 wins. However, people don’t realize that had it not been for the procedure that now bears his name, he wouldn’t even be close to his numbers. John was a great pitcher for some time. Why he’s not in is beyond me.
Dave Concepcion – The last member of the Big Red Machine not in the Hall (not counting Pete Rose), Concepcion was probably one of the best shortstops of his time. Many remember him for his glove work, but his career averages (.267/.322/.357) and his 2326 hits aren’t enough to get him in. It’s possible that many could point to Ozzie Smith as a possible induction into the Hall of Fame from Concepcion, but unfortunately, I don’t think he’ll get in, leaving him as a option for the veteran’s committee.
Andre Dawson – Blessed with a long, steady career that lasted 21 seasons, Dawson tallied 438 homers, 2774 hits, 314 steals, and was the 1987 NL MVP. Dawson was a great defender at both right and centerfield and hit with good power. He didn’t walk much, which is why he’s got a #### OBP, but he does have some favorable stats to some Hall of Famers already in. He was also one of the classiest men to play the game, another reason why I like him, though that’s beside the point. But unfortunately, he's seen as a complier, and most likely won't be allowed in anytime soon, which sucks for him.
Alan Trammell – Trammell totaled 2,365 hits, 185 homers, 412 doubles, 236 steals and a World Series MVP to his name. Those are solid stats and should be Hall of Fame worthy when you consider that Trammell played in an era when shortstops were expected to defend, not him. However, shortly after Trammell retired, the rise of offensive shortstops, such as Ripken, Jeter, Garciaparra, Rodriguez and others have made his numbers look quite pedestrian when compared to how they will finish. Because of that, Trammell isn’t getting in, even though he probably should.
Harold Baines – Seemingly ageless, as he played for over 20 seasons, Baines is probably regarded as one of the best hitters in White Sox history. As a whole, he was a very good hitter for a very long time, with a career .289 Batting Average and totals of 2,866 hits and 384 home runs. He played on six postseason teams but never won a ring. Not at all shabby. However, Baines was a terrible defender and never had a monster season. He also never really took walks either, meaning he’s out.
The Hall of Very Good
Dave Parker – The Cobra has a lot of good credentials. He’s got 2712 hits, led the league three times in scoring, is in the top 30 of all time in doubles and was the 1978 NL MVP, three Gold Gloves. He also won two batting titles. Those are good numbers, but not great ones, and Parker’s cocaine use has turned off several of the more self righteous voters, which means Parker is likely going in that class of Very Good, but not Hall Worthy players.
Jack Morris – Morris is a somewhat lesser version of Tommy John. He has pitched well in the postseason, and averaged at least 14 wins per season. However, Morris has an ERA of 3.90 and going through some of his career numbers, many of his wins are the result of good run support and a strong defensive unit. I don’t think he should be allowed in, even though many of the old school media are pushing hard for him to go in. He’d easily be the worst Hall of Fame pitcher ever elected.
Mark McGwire – 500 Home Runs used to guarantee you admission into the hall of fame, but times have changed and McGwire has been made the posterboy of the era. It’s not fair, but unfortunately, it happens. He won’t get in, but will likely hang around the ballot. He could get in during his final year of eligibility.
Don Mattingly – One of the most popular Yankees in history, a nine-time Gold Glover, a six time All-Star, and the 1985 MVP. A good man and a great leader, who stuck with the Yankees through the lean years and retired just before all the fun started. Early in his career, Mattingly seemed like a lock, but lingering back problems would eventually claim his career. Again, as with another 80’s era first baseman, Will Clark, Mattingly had good career averages (.307-.358-.471), but his overall numbers (222 HR’s, 2153 Hits) aren’t enough to get him in, though he’ll be immortalized in Legends Park sooner or later. To put it bluntly, Yankee fans, let it go. Unfortunately, he’ll hang around for the next few years, making this a perennial comment.
Dale Murphy – Murphy has two MVP awards and 398 homers. But other than that, he's not Hall Worthy.
Chuck Finley – Finely made quite a few All-Star teams based on raw win totals alone, but his control was average and his ERA doesn’t fairly show that he could be god-awful a great deal. He did have a reputation as an innings eater, but other than that, what else can you say except that he’s a slightly above average pitcher who likely would be vastly overpaid if he played today and isn’t worthy of Hall of Fame consideration.
Robb Nen – A former Ranger Draft Pick, Nen was traded to Florida for Cris Carpenter (the bad one) and became one of the better closers in baseball, finishing his career with 314 saves, a 45-42 record, a career 2.98 ERA and a WHIP of 1.213. However, that’s not hall worthy, meaning Nen is out.
No Chance In Hell
Chuck Knoblauch – Knoblauch certainly looked like a Hall of Fame caliber player back when he was in Minnesota. However, a neurosis that affected his glovework and eventually his hitting ended his career. Many felt that the pressure of playing in New York finally got to him. However, the fact is that what’s done is done and in the end, Knoblauch doesn’t deserve to be bronzed in Cooperstown. His mention in the Mitchell Report will also mean he falls off the ballot.
Todd Stottlemyre–An okay pitcher for the most part, I remember him mostly from his brief time with the Texas Rangers. He shouldn’t be on here. Who screens these things?
Rod Beck –Sorry, I know Beck is very much beloved by many fans, but realistically, he had a 7 year run in which he was good, after which he flamed out spectacularly. This may be his first and only time you’ll see him on the ballot.
David Justice – Justice is going to be one and done on the ballot. He was good for a long time, but was never great. His numbers (1571 Hits, 305 HR, .279 Career BA) just aren’t special enough, though he’ll likely get credit for all of his playoff experience. But, to be quite honest, he just doesn’t belong on the ballot.
Travis Fryman – Fryman played for a long time, both in Detroit and in Cleveland, and was an All-Star five times, but for the most part he was just a solid contributor and nothing more.
Brady Anderson – Another solid contributor, nothing more, Anderson shouldn’t be on the ballot.
Shawon Dunston – Dunston had a decent start to his career, but injuries and ineffectiveness turned him into a very good bench player for the most part. He was also named as one of “Barry’s Guys” in the book Love Me, Hate Me, who defended Eric Davis, who was being berated by Bonds and the time, only to shut him up by grabbing Davis’ World Series ring and asking him “Have one of these?”
Oakland just traded Nick Swisher to the White Sox for Gio Gonzalez, Fautino De Los Santos, and Ryan Sweeney. This is a solid trade for both parties, but it taps the rest of the farm system for Oakland, leaving Aaron Poveda the lone prospect in Chicago's farm system.
So what does Oakland get?
Faustino De Los Santos (RHP) - A very good, high ceiling player for the Athletics, De Los Santos is a stud pitching prospect that could be a Number Two for Oakland, given three years or so. He's the gem of his deal.
Gio Gonzalez (LHP) - A little lefty with solid stuff that should be a middle of the rotation presence for Oakland. He'll slot right in on Opening Day and should fit comfortably behind Joe Blanton, provided he doesn't get traded first.
Ryan Sweeney (CF) - Another centerfield option, I felt that the Rangers should give Sweeney a shot. He's got massive power potential, but hasn't translated it into performance. Kevin Goldstein from Baseball Prospectus feels he's a fourth outfielder, but ESPN's Keith Law believes a change in organizations could be beneficial. He'll also likely open with Oakland's Opening Day squad.
Oakland now is in full fledged rebuilding mode and with all of their outfield talent and first base locked up, Swisher was likely the next one to go after Joe Blanton, due to his service time and reasonable contract ($3.5 Million in 2008, $5.3 Million in 2009, $6.75 Million in 2010, $9 Million in 2011, and a $10.25 Million club option for 2012 with a $1 Million buyout.)
With Swisher, who will be the White Sox's starting centerfielder, the Pale Hose get a very good player who can handle center, steal some bases, draw some walks, hit some homers and strikeout a whole lot. Still, getting him for cheap for five years makes the losses of Gonzalez and De Los Santos managable.
However, is it wise for the White Sox to try and contend this season? Their ballclub is much improved, but the lack of pitching and bullpen depth for the White Sox, plus the fact that the Tigers and Indians are going to be kick #### means that Chicago, at best, is a third place team and at worse will be battling the Royals again for fourth place in the division and for the Number Two overall pick.
Good move for both sides, however. Oakland gets more prospects (and an updated Top 15 Prospects List Next Week) and Chicago gets a good player signed at a long term price.
Oakland Grade - A
Chicago Grade - A-
On a side note, does it seem that Oakland and Florida will be competing next season to see who can field the cheapest team? Both squads seem to be moving anyone making more than the Major League Minimum, though Oakland has several bad contracts (Chavez, Kotsay, Crosby) weighing them down.
The Balance of Power just shifted in the American League West thans to the Dan Haren Trade.
First, The Arizona Side of the trade. Arizona gets a solid Number Two starter and sends several blocked prospects to Oakland in exchange for roster certainty. None of the players really had a chance of cracking Arizona's roster, save Chris Carter, and for the Diamondbacks, it's about winning now and worrying about the farm depth emptying out later.
Arizona's new lineup is likely the following:
Brandon Webb (RHP)
Dan Haren (RHP)
Doug Davis (LHP)
Micah Owings (RHP)
Randy Johnson (LHP)
That's a much strong rotation, much better than last years.
Overall, this trade works for them.
As for Oakland, it's a symbol that Billy Beane has conceded the season and is beginning to rebuild. As seen from my farm system previews, Beane doesn't have a ton of high ceiling talent in his minor league system and much of the talent that is close to being drawn upon is already up.
And Beane has shown that he is willing to conduct a full scale rebuild sooner rather than later and likely saw that it was time to do so.
So, let's take a look at each of the players recieved:
Chris Carter (1B) - A pure masher, Carter has plenty of upside. He's not the greatest defender, but he's passable enough. Overall, he's a middle of the order power threat waiting to happen.
Aaron Cunningham (OF) - Stolen from the White Sox in the Danny Richar move, Cunningham has a high upside, as he hits the ball to all fields and has some speed and power. Many compare him to former A's outfielder Eric Byrnes. I say he's more like a young Steve Finley.
Carlos Gonzalez (RF) - Gonzalez is another young outfielder that can mash, given the opportunity. He could start in Oakland right now, pushing Swisher to center and Kotsay out the door if Oakland is willing to take pennies on the dollar.
Brett Anderson (LHP) - A decent left hander with okay stuff, he's more of a Number Four starter at best, though he does have innings eater potential. He'll do well in that ballpark than he ever would have in Arizona.
Gregg Smith and Dana Eveland - Decent arms, but more likely to wind up as relief prospects than anything else.
Overall, it's a trade of quantity over quality. The A's did get a pair of high upside players in Cunningham and Carter, but I wonder if they shouldn't have pushed the Diamondbacks for Matt Scherzer, a pitcher better than Anderson, Smith and Evaland and well worth waiting for.
It's a good trade, as it gives the A's options to play with in the outfield and a future power threat in Carter. I'm just wondering if it was enough to justify the Haren trade. Oakland needs pitching and unless they're planning on using high draft picks due to low finishes on near ready college pitching, they'll be hurting for quite some time.
This trade also officially gives the divisional race solely to the Mariners and Angels. With Oakland and Texas now entering full scale rebuilds (with Texas slightly ahead due to two good drafts and a couple of smart trades), it should be interesting watching the Mariners and Angels slug it out with each other.
If that's the case, then while my team is out of contention, I'll be rooting for Seattle.
I checked out Ken Davidoff's latest column for Newsday yesterday, which was advice to Omar Minaya for how to improve the team next year.
For the most part, the column is good, with praise for keepng Willie Randolph and some of Minaya's minor trades and dealings, the only one two under issue being Luis Castillo and Moises Alou. However, his advice for how to improve the team is...flawed to say the least.
Much like my recent Steve Phillips rant, this one is more of a trashing o####uy that really has no idea what the hell he is talking about.
Let's see his advice to improve the Mets:
Trade Aaron Heilman, Lastings Milledge, Kevin Mulvey and a lower-level prospect to the A's for Dan Haren.
What the hell?
Okay, first off, Davidoff rightly tells Minaya he's got no chance for Johan Santana. However, he forgets to tell him that he's got no chance to scoring Haren either.
Haren is a legitimate top of the rotation starter that is signed for a very affordable amount of money, $4 million in 2008, $5.5 million in 2009 and $6.75 million (team option) in 2010. He is also not going to be had for this package. It's not enough.
Heilman is a okay setup man and Milledge can be a superstar. But Mulvey is merely a decent starting pitching prospect, maybe a Number Two or Three, more likely a Number Four, and unless the Mets are including Fernando Martinez or Carlos Gomez as the lower level prospect, this package isn't near enough.
Beane is likely going to look for a package similar to what the Twins are asking for Santana, three prospects near ready to play full time. There are several teams that could easily beat the Mets' offer, notably the Rangers and Mariners, who could offer better prospects than the Mets ever could.
Sorry Ken.
I'll detail Haren's price in a future On The Block.
Billy Beane runs a tight ship. That is not to be debated. And his success in the draft in the past has produced such stars like Mark Mulder, Barry Zito, Tim Hudson, Jason Giambi, Nick Swisher and others that have gone on to become productive major leaguers.
However, in the past few years, it’s become more apparent that much of that has changed
Many have credited Beane with being a draft genius and for being the main reason why Oakland continues to win with a limited budget, all on the mantle of the “Moneyball” philosophy.
People seem to forget how lucky Beane has been as well.
Much of the Athletics’ success has to do with the fact that Oakland was able to develop three front of the rotation pitchers at the exact same time. Had Oakland taken Ben Sheets instead of Barry Zito (who was taken only because Oakland was unable to reach an agreement with Sheets prior to the draft), Oakland’s future would have turned out quite differently.
With that said, there has been a lot that Beane has done right. Taking advantage of college products when others avoided them like the plague has changed scouting, but hurt the Athletics in terms of the talent available for them to choose from (a side effect from having a opportunistic, narcissistic writer chronicle the way you handle your day to day job). Oakland has managed sustain it’s winning, but the talent pool on the farm is not as deep as it once was during Oakland’s stretch of playoff appearances. With the most recent round of graduations, the talent pool is shallower still.
Athletics Top 15
1 – Daric Barton (1B)
DOB: 8/16/85
Drafted: 1st round, 2003, California High School (Cardinals)
2008 Club: Athletics (MLB)
Height/Weight: 6-0/205
Bats/Throws: L/R
The Skinny: Barton was regarded, at the time of the Mark Mulder deal, to be the real centerpiece of the deal. Since then, Barton hasn’t disappointed, but with the emergence of Dan Haren as the ace of the staff, Barton is strictly a side piece that could make the entire deal a slam dunk winner for Oakland (considering that Kiki Calero also came in the deal.) He was called up late in the year and left a good enough impression for people to be hopeful for the future.
The Good: The gifted natural hitter was holding his own as a 20-year-old at Triple-A before breaking a bone in his elbow in a freak collision on a pickoff throw. Both his approach and his pitch recognition are above-average on a major-league level, and he can make contact on pitches of any type in any location.
The Bad: The biggest power potential that was once seen in Barton has never arrived, meaning that Barton is going to be a rather unconventional first baseman. Many believe that while he’s got the power to hit 20+ homers annually, he may never do so. As far as his defense, Barton was originally drafted as a catcher, but no one thought he’d be able to stay there. Oakland hoped to develop his bat faster, so they moved him to first base. Because of the power outage, Barton was moved to third, where he profiled better, but his terrible fielding resulted in a move back to first. Hence, he’s awful defensively.
Projection: Low. Barton has nothing left to prove and is ready to start contributing to the big league club this season, so this is likely the last year we’ll see him.
What He Can Be: A John Olerud type of first baseman.
2008 Course Of Action: The job is Barton’s starting next year, and with Jack Cust now installed as the everyday DH, this will likely force Oakland to trade Dan Johnson. That said, Barton probably isn’t a player I would be thrilled to have as my everyday first baseman, but he’s a decent stopgap while he’s inexpensive.
2 – Kevin Melillo (2B)
DOB: 5/14/82
Drafted: 5th round, 2004, University of South Carolina
2008 Club:Sacramento River Cats (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 6-0/190
Bats/Throws: L/R
The Skinny: Melillo’s 2007 campaign is pretty much the same for what you would expect for him. He really is just what he is, an average second baseman that could be a steady regular in the majors.
The Good: An offensive minded second baseman, Milillo has a short, quick swing that has suprising pop. He works the count well, gets on base, and all the usual things that Oakland likes it’s players to do. His defensive fundamentals are good. All in all, he’s near ready for the show and could be a producer in the 6 or 7 hole.
The Bad: Melillo has had some minor knee issues in the past and when he falls in love with the long ball, he gets pull happy. He also has below average range and hands, and is nowhere near the Gold Glover type defense Oakland has come to expect from it’s second basemen.
Projection: Low. Melillo is ready for the show and with this year looking like a rebuilding one, Oakland would be wise to see what they have.
What He Can Be: An average second baseman.
2008 Course Of Action: Ellis has recently had his $5 million club option for 2008 exercised, but that doesn’t mean he’ll remain on the team. Ellis is pretty attractive right now as a cheap date and could fetch a decent prize while allowing Melillo to play everyday.
3 – Trevor Cahill (RHP)
DOB: 3/01/88
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2006, California High School
2008 Club: Stockton Ports (High A)
Height/Weight: 6-3/195
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: A surprise pick for the Athletics last year, Cahill had a solid senior season in high school as a first year pitcher, but fell after illness caused him to tail off. Oakland took him and thus far, Cahill has continued the tradition of Kane County pitching dominance. But his big coming out party was when he made a spot start for Sacramento at the end of the season and carried a perfect game and a no-hitter once the perfecto was gone until the 8th. Now that’s awesomeness.
The Good: Cahill’s biggest strength is his command and control, which are surprisingly good for a young pitcher. He’s able to locate the ball low and induce groundballs. He throws in the low 90’s and can touch 90’s, but his best pitch is a spike curveball that has wicked break. He's a solid athlete and is regarded to be an excellent character guy.
The Bad: Cahill doesn't over-power anyone. He also needs to refine a third pitch.
Projection: High. Cahill is still developing as a pitcher, as he was only pitching for a year after he was drafted, but the promise is there for him to be a capable major league starter.
What He Can Be: A Number 3 starter, maybe a two.
2008 Course Of Action: Cahill will be heading to the California League, where his groundball tendencies should help him survive the year in the extreme hitters league.
4 – James Simmons (RHP)
DOB: 9/29/86
Drafted: 1st Round, 2007, UC Riverside
2008 Club: Midland Rockhounds (Double A)
Height/Weight: 6-3/205
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Simmons was regarded to be one of the most polished pitchers in the draft and was rated as one of the closest pitchers to the majors. After going 11-3 with a 2.40 ERA in his junior season at UC Riverside, the Athletics took him in the 1st round, where he has already reached Double A.
The Good: Simmons’ game is all about command and control and he has it in ####s. His stuff is okay, but not overwhelming, with a fastball that sits around 90-92, complimented by a plus changeup and an average breaking ball.
The Bad: Simmons isn’t overpowering and while he may be close to the majors, he’s not a sure fire star or anything. He’s pretty much what I would call a right handed Joe Saunders, a guy that takes the ball every fifth day and gives you a shot to win. He also loses speed on his fastball late in a game.
Projection: Low. Simmons will rise quickly once he’s assigned to repeat Double A again. Again, he’s got limited upside, which is the only thing you can really hold against him as far as his tools go.
What He Can Be: A back of the rotation starter.
2008 Course Of Action: Look for Simmons to repeat Double A this year before he gets an assignment to Triple A, where Oakland hopes he might be able to be a factor for a September call up.
5 – Sean Doolittle (1B)
DOB: 9/26/86
Drafted: 1st Round (S), 2007, Virginia
2008 Club:Stockton Ports (High A)
Height/Weight: 6-3/190
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: Doolittle was on the rise after a year in Virginia and was projected to be picked somewhere in the lower end of the first round. However, Porcello’s fall along with some other shenanigans with the Pirates resulted in Doolittle falling into the supplemental round, where Oakland took him. He had a pretty good debut for Oakland in the lower minors.
The Good: An athletic first baseman, Doolittle makes good, consistent solid contact from the left side and should hit for average in the future. He has an above average arm, which was seen from his days as a two way player at Virginia, plus he shows decent range and can even run a bit too.
The Bad: Doolittle lacks any sort of power potential at first base, which isn’t what you want out of a power position.
Projection: Average. Doolittle may rise quickly and while he may not have home run power, doubles power may exist within him.
What He Can Be: A average first baseman that hits for average, but not for power.
2008 Course Of Action: Doolittle has talent, but unfortunately for him, he’s also blocked by both Dan Johnson and Daric Barton, meaning that in the future, Doolittle’s likely value to Oakland is trade bait. He's going to open the season in the California League for Stockton.
