Time for another team preview, our third in a series of 30. Time to see who the hat wants to see today…
The last of the Divisions makes their debut.
Atlanta Braves – Team Preview
The Braves, they of the long division winning streak, have finally tasted some humility in recent years, due to the churning of a productive farm system and the result of the increasingly tight restrictions of their budget, which once allowed them to spend freely.
However, the Braves still have some talent on the team, also thanks to the farm system, but many of the pieces that make up the Braves are aging and might not hold up for much longer. You'll see what I mean in a moment.
Starting Rotation
John Smoltz (RHP) – Still dominant at his age, Smoltz’s stuff hasn’t dimmed much, but he has begun to break down a bit, missing time last season due to injury. Still, he’s a quality staff ace and one who will serve as a stopper when needed.
Tom Glavine (LHP) – Glavine returns for a farewell tour with the Braves this season. While he has proven that he can at least be an innings sponge, I’m not sure how much he has left. It may have been better for him to just retire.
Tim Hudson (RHP) – Hudson remains a potential top of the rotation starter and will likely rise to the role of staff ace once Smoltz finally retires. Though Hudson should be the Number two man, expect the Braves to separate him and Smoltz with Glavine.
Chuck James (LHP) – James too is another player I’m not high on. He’s got enough stuff to be a middle of the rotation starter, but he has faded badly during the last month of season. He’s very homer prone and his control isn’t great. I’m also not sure he can last a whole season. So call me skeptical when it comes to how successful I think James will be.
Mike Hampton (LHP) – On the other hand, I’m a lot more confident in James than I am in the one time ace of the Houston Astros, who has been an out and out disaster for the Braves. This is supposed to be the season Hampton will actually contribute. As a fifth starter, the Braves aren’t risking much, as they have an assortment of young starters they can plug in here if Hampton fails or gets hurt.
Bullpen
Rafael Soriano (Closer) – Soriano is one of the biggest steals that the Braves have made in recent memory. A lights out reliever that should succeed in the closer’s role, he was acquired for Horatio Ramirez, who has been disastrous for the Mariners. He should take the next step to eliteness this season.
Mike Gonzalez (Setup Man) – A solid reliever who could also close if necessary, Gonzalez will likely setup Soriano, depending on whether or not he’s ready. I’m assuming he is.
Peter Moylan (RHP) – A dependable reliever, this Aussie is an amazing story, having been virtually signed off of the Australian World Baseball Classic team last March. He’s since made good on the opportunity.
Will Ohman (LHP) – Ohman is a more than adequate replacement for Ron Mahay, as he’s an effective lefty specialist.
Royce Ring (LHP) – Ring finally got his shot in the majors with San Diego, but was dealt to the Braves in the Wil Ledezma deal. Ring has decent stuff, enough to be a solid middle reliever, but his big issue has been control.
Manny Acosta (RHP) - Called up late in the year, Acosta was rather good and should see time with the Braves this season.
Buddy Carlyle (RHP) – Carlyle was an adequate fifth starter for a bit, but it looks like he’ll be moved back into the swingman role for Atlanta, which may suit him better anyway, as he was figured out late last season.
Starting Lineup
Kelly Johnson (2B) – The only real choice here for a leadoff man, Johnson has the potential to be an All-Star second baseman after the Braves shrewdly moved him back to the infield after playing left. Johnson has decent hands moderate pop for a second baseman, though he isn’t quite as fast of disciplined as your stereotypical leadoff man. Still, he’s a solid bet to improve and I’m willing to be that he’ll break out this year.
Yunel Escobar (SS) – The starting job is all his now after Escobar was impressive filling in for Edgar Renteria last year. I doubt he’ll hit .326 again, but if he lives up to his minor league numbers, what the Braves will be getting is .294/.367/.411 out of the second spot in the lineup, which still isn’t nothing to sneeze at. Still, I wonder if maybe shortstop prospect Brent Lillibridge might be the better bet long term.
Mark Teixeira (1B) – Teixeira offers a lot of power, but also is a disciplined enough hitter to hit for a high average and get on base. He’s a Gold Glove defender at first base and is one of the better players in the game. He adds a major power threat to this Braves lineup, but to be quite honest, he is a mercenary player, as he is likely going to walk after this season for a bank breaking contract. Atlanta has said they would try to extend him, but Teixeira is one of Scott Boras’ most devoted clients. Which means, in the long run, Atlanta will likely only get a pair of draft picks for him.
Chipper Jones (3B) – Still a formidable offensive presence in the middle of the lineup, you do have to start looking for Jones’ replacement if you’re the Braves, as Jones is older and will only be good for able 130 games or so. Still, getting that level of power production for 130 games is nothing to sneeze at and for the most part, he’s still able to handle the hot corner well.
Jeff Francoeur (RF) – Probably a bit overrated, Francoeur is an excellent right fielder that carries a lot of thunder in his bat. He has also been very prone to striking out and needs to improve on his walk total. He has improved a bit in the past few years, so it might not be surprising to see if he takes that next step from a masher to an all around offensive force.
Brian McCann (C) – Possibly the best young backstop in the National League, McCann is a solid defensive player that is respected by his pitchers and calls a good game. He also has excellent power numbers and is a solid fit here in the sixth spot, especially when you consider the heavy hitters ahead of him. While the dip in homers is a concern, McCann does get a bit of a pass because he got hurt, which may have affected him.
Matt Diaz (LF) – Not a bad left fielder, as he has nice pop in his bat, is decent defensively and can be a solid contributor until Brandon Jones is ready. I like him a lot and though Tampa and Kansas City gave up on him too quickly a while back. He’s a bit of a free swinger, but he’ll likely see his walk totals increase this year because of the pitcher and the next guy on the list.
Mark Kotsay (CF) – The Braves are gambling that Kotsay can at least contribute something to the team this year, as Kotsay looked done last year. Really, I’m not sure what the Braves can expect out of him, as his power looks gone, he no longer looks like he’ll handle the rigors of centerfield everyday anymore and there is no guarantee that he’ll be able to stay upright for most of the season. Honestly, the Braves should have just offered arbitration to Andruw Jones, hoped he accepted, and just gutted out the season with a big salary.
Bench
Brayan Pena (C) – A decent backup catcher, Pena doesn’t have much of a bat, but he’s a solid glove that can be relied on in a pinch.
Omar Infante (UTIL) – A solid utilityman, Infante can adequately play nearly every position except catcher. His bat is decent and he'd be a adequate stopgap in case of injury.
Josh Anderson (OF) – Anderson will likely be the main backup for the Braves outfielders and could see time in center if Kotsay is unable to stand up to the rigors of the position. Anderson is merely a fourth outfielder, but he could be a decent one, as he has a decent approach at the plate and a little bit of pop.
Martin Prado (INF) – Prado will likely serve as the other infield backup. He’s okay, but not stellar.
Minor League Notables
Jair Jurrjens (RHP) – Acquired from the Tigers in the Edgar Renteria deal, Jurrjens was solid in his major league debut and works with a low 90's fastball and a decent curve and changeup. However, he's also been overworked in his career, so he could be injury prone later. Still, he wouldn't be bad as a fifth starter for the Braves.
Jojo Reyes (LHP) - Another young lefty, Reyes has enough stuff to become a good 4th starter or so. He could also see time later in the year.
Brandon Jones (LF) - Jones has a lot of power and is eventually going to succeed Matt Diaz in left, sooner rather than later.
Final Analysis
The Braves do have enough talent to keep things interesting in the National League East, but overall I think the aging rotation and the Braves essentially punting away two lineup spots will eventually cost them. Sorry Braves fans, but you won't be winning the division again for a little while.
Well, after the Marlins preview, let's see who the hat has to check out today...
Hmm, we stay in the National League.
Los Angeles Dodgers - Team Preview
Well, so much of the Dodgers having the most talented group of youngsters in the division. After a decision to commit too long to the veteren's, the Dodgers have instead decided to embrace their youthful core for the lack of better alternatives. Still blessed with a solid farm system and a lot of pitching talent, the Dodgers aren't going to be a foe to be triffled with this season. Still, there are some weaknesses on this team, mostly due to vets that have no business starting likely to be started anyway, thanks to Joe Torre.
Starting Rotation
Brad Penny (RHP) – Underrated by many, Penny is a top of the rotation starter that can flat out dominate when he’s healthy. His contract is a steal and the Dodgers wisely held onto him last season after debating about shopping him around. It’s almost a sure bet that he’ll get his club option exercised next season, giving the Dodgers an extra season before bringing up uberprospect Clayton Kershaw.
Chad Billingsley (RHP) – A good young pitcher, Billingsley showed last season that he could become a top of the rotation starter if given the chance to prove himself. With a good combination of stuff and poise, Billingsley should rise through the rotation and establish himself as the next staff ace.
Derek Lowe (RHP) – Lowe is an innings eater that will generate a lot of groundballs and should post respectable numbers. All in all, it probably would have been best for Boston to keep him, as he was a good fit for their park, but overall he’s done rather well for himself in LA and should look to cash in free agency next season.
Hiroki Kuroda (RHP) – The latest Japanese Import, Kuroda is a decent pitcher. His fastball clocks in the high 80’s/low 90’s with some sink and he’s got a good curveball and a decent breaking ball. He commands all of his offerings well, however, and though he had a bit of elbow trouble, it was cleared up by Dr. Lewis Yocum. All in all, he’s a solid bet to be a good number four starter and isn’t expensive.
Jason Schmidt (RHP) – Well, it turns out the Giants did know what they were doing when they didn’t make a bigger push to keep their ace. Schmidt is likely going to be the fifth man in the rotation due to his need for a slow recovery from shoulder surgery, and will likely never be the guy that the Dodgers hoped they signed. But he could be a very good middle of the rotation man if he successfully bounces back.
Bullpen
Takashi Saito (Closer) – One of the more effective closers in baseball, and one of the bigger bargains to boot, Saito is money in save opportunities, though I would caution that he is older and he has a lot of mileage on his arm. Grady Little actually did a good job of keeping him fresh and not abusing him. The man replacing him isn’t as kind. Still, a decent season should be expected from him.
Jonathan Broxton (Setup Man) – The Dodgers’ closer of the future, Broxton is built like a bull and has great stuff to go with it. He’s also a prime candidate to be overused by Joe Torre.
Joe Beimel (LHP) - A dependable lefty that shouldn't be in anymore bar fights anytime soon, Beimel helps augment what should be a dynamite setup corps.
Hong Chi Kuo (LHP) – Kuo had the stuff to be a starter, but not the stamina. So, he returns to the middle relief/swingman role that he did well in back in 2006.
Scott Proctor (RHP) – The one guy that was probably the least thrilled about Joe Torre coming to LA? Proctor, who was overused by Torre during his time in New York as Torre lost confidence in reliever after reliever and kept on using his old reliables. Proctor likely could have had a long career as a setup man if Torre wasn’t
Esteban Loaiza (RHP) – The odd man out of the rotation mix, Loaiza was awful in his limited innings as a Dodger and now will have to accept a swingman role unless he wants out completely.
Rudy Seanez (RHP) - A retread of sorts, Seanez isn't exactly an elite reliever anymore, but as long as the Dodgers don't overexpose him, he should be a servicable reliever at best.
Starting Lineup
Rafael Furcal (SS) – Still a good shortstop with a solid bat, power and speed, Furcal is entering the last year in his deal and wants a contract extension to stay with LA. I don’t think it’ll happen, now with Hui down in Triple A ready to start, so expect Furcal to have a solid year before leaving LA to go elsewhere, giving the Dodgers some nice draft picks in the process.
Juan Pierre (LF) – Does Pierre deserve to be starting ahead of the more talented Andre Ethier? #### No. Does that mean he will? Yes, because we have seen throughout the ages that there is one common trait about Joe Torre. He always starts his veteran’s and won’t start a youngster unless he has no choice. In this case, he’ll likely start Pierre in left, where his speed should help him, but other than that, he’s got little value.
James Loney (1B) – A nifty young player that the Dodgers finally appear to be done screwing wtih, Loney has a solid bat with plenty of power potential and should be a solid middle of the order presence for years.
Andruw Jones (CF) – Last season’s down year resulted in Jones going from the top centerfielder on the market to a considerable risk. I do credit the Dodgers for getting him at two years, as if he bombs, they’ll only be on the hook for one more year, unlike Juan Pierre. Jones is still a good defensive center fielder who hits for power and shows some patience, but he also lengthens his swing as he tries to crush the ball and he’s lost a step as far as his speed goes. Still, he’s an excellent buy and should give the Dodger lineup more thunder.
Jeff Kent (2B) – Kent can still hit and he’s still a reliable power source in the middle of the order, but he has no business playing second base anymore. He really should be either at first base or a DH, but he doesn’t seem inclined to do either. Still, expect Kent to put up some serious numbers here, especially if the Dodgers finally allow Kemp and Loney to stay in everyday and not want to switch to retreads and vets with nothing left in the tank.
Matt Kemp (RF) – Kemp has all the tools to be a superstar, as he could become a power hitting right fielder in the mold of a J.D. Drew, but he’s still raw in several facets of the game. Nonetheless, these flaws will only be worked out with playing time, so the Dodgers need to play him, as he is a big part of the Dodgers’ future once some of the vets move on.
Russell Martin (C) – One of the best young catchers in the NL, Martin was probably a bit overworked last season, but his offensive performance didn't suffer much for it. Overall, I think he's a great young player that should continue to be a presence in the lineup. Also, he'd be a nice fit hitting second, but that likely won't happen.
Nomar Garciaparra (3B) –Nomar is no longer the offensive player he was and he’s too brittle for the hot corner, so I’m not sure why Torre would start him, as his power is gone and all he really is able to do is hit for a superficially high average. But, as I said, Torre won’t start kids unless he has no choice, meaning that the Dodgers will see a lot of Nomar hitting 8th.
Bench
Andre Ethier (COF) – Ethier would be a solid left fielder, but it seems that the Dodgers are determined to get as much use out of Juan Pierre's contract as possible. Plus, knowing Torre's affinity for Vets, and it's likely that Ethier will strictly be used in pinch hit duty until Pierre plays himself out of the lineup.
Andy LaRoche (CINF) – Another casualty of Joe Torre will likely be Andy LaRoche, who will be on the bench as Nomar Garciaparra is started. Still, I do give the Dodgers some credit to committing to at least carrying with the big league club. LaRoche has all the tools to be a star third baseman in the mold of Troy Glaus, though only the Dodgers
Gary Bennett (C) – A decent backup catcher with an okay bat, look at Bennett to be able to relieve Russell Martin, who was overworked last season.
Wilson Valdez (UTIL) - Strictly a gloveman with no offensive value.
Tony Abreu (UTIL) – A decent utility man, Abreu will likely backup all the middle infield positions, plus get the occasional start in the outfield. He’s not a bad hitter either and could pinch hit in necessary.
Minor League Notables
Clayton Kershaw (LHP) - The Dodgers' top prospect, Kershaw has already reached Double A at the age of 19. He's got a big fastball and slider and potentially could be a major league ace. While the Dodgers won't rush him, it's not inconcievable that Kershaw could get a big league look in the pen at the end of the season.
Chin-lung Hu (SS) - Chien Ming Wang's ex-classmate, Hu has an incredible glove and enough of a bat that he won't be a drag on the offense. He'll likely be Furcal's successor at short, though he could be called up in case of injury.
Justin Meloan (RHP) - A solid setup man, Meloan is also a potential call up should one of the relievers flame out.
Final Analysis
Overall, the Dodgers have a good squad and will be in the mix for the National League Wild Card. However, I don't feel that they'll have quite an easy run at the division or the WC thanks to the rise of the Diamondbacks and the Rockies. Overall, this squad is dependant on it's youth. If Torre decides to play the vets like Pierre and Garciaparra over more deserving talent, it will ultimately cost the Blue Crew at chance at the post-season.
Final Prediction - 2nd Place, National League West
There is some wisdom in what the Astros did during the off-season, in the trades that brought them Miguel Tejada, Jose Valverde, and Michael Bourn. While Ken Rosenthal can rail against the deals all he wants, there is one thing you need to keep in mind.
None of the players traded was really a superstar. In fact, many weren't really all that good.
Yes, I know, Chad Qualls and Brad Lidge are plenty badass. But Lidge was likely gone in a year and Qualls, while solid, isn't a lights out reliever.
And of the prospects, the only one of real note was Troy Patton, who was sent to the Orioles. Everyone else that was dealt was either a disappointment or wasn't a world beater.
Overall, the Astros likely looked at their system, didn't like what they saw, and decided to spent what little collateral they had to improve their team. So long as they draft the best player available from now on, there is every reason that the Astros can replensih the farm in a short period of time.
That's IF they spend money and IF they draft the best player available, not just who will sign.
Koby Clemens Moving To Catcher
After another year of disappointment, the Astros are moving Koby Clemens back to catcher.
Originally drafted as a catcher, the Astros moved Clemens to third base, feeling that he would his stocky frame would allow him to take the abuse of catching, and his arm would be more than adequate from behind the plate. His bat, which has been disappointing thus far, would also look a lot better from behind the bag as well.
It's clear that there was some pressure on the Astros to draft Koby due to his dad, who was on the staff, but really, the Astros would have been better off spending the six figure bonus on someone else. Anyhow, Clemens could really provide some value from behind the plate if he's able to be a adequate catcher. Catching prospects are currently lacking in the majors and if Clemens can turn into at the very least a Gregg Zaun type of player, he's got a lot of value.
Astros Need To Re-Establish International Presence
Okay, one more, because quite frankly, I've had enough.
The Astros need to figure out why their pipeline to Latin America has dried up.
In the past, the Astros were kings of the Venezuelan Talent Market, with them signing player after player that was a serious talent. Some of the former talent mined from Venezuela: Bobby Abreu, Richard HIdalgo and Freddy Garcia, all of whom have enjoyed solid big league careers.
The talent has dried up.
Part of it has been Drayton McLane's tightening of the purse strings and refusing to pay up for big money talent in the draft or abroad. But the other part is that the Astros didn't evolve They weren't able to adjust for the times and as a result, several other teams now dominate the Venezuelan market and the Domincan, areas where the Astros did relatively well.
Whatever the case, it's time for Houston to re-establish their presence on the International Market.
Because all of the patch jobs, no matter the price, won't keep the franchise stable for much longer.
There have been a lot of rumors recently about the Cubbies wanting to make a trade for Marlon Byrd, ideally to be their centerfielder and to help push Felix Pie. Apparently, the deal would be for Matt Murton and possibly for pitching prospect Sean Gallagher.
This deal likely doesn't have much legs on it, if any.
First of all, as good as the Byrdman's seaosn was last year, I doubt he suddenly had a breakout in his early 30's. More than likely, he'll regress to his usual fourth outfielder status come April.
Second, I wouldn't trade Murton for Byrd straight up if I were the Cubs, but if they are willing to do it, I'd pull the trigger. Hell, I'd even include a pair of relievers in the deal for Murton and Gallagher, likely Scott Feldman and Robinson Tejeda. Not only would that give the Cubs more options to sift through, it opens up space on the 40 Man for someone.
However, as promising as the deal seemed, I doubt it will happen.
Complicating things further are the fact that the Padres want Murton as well, though I'm not sure what they would give up in return. San Diego usually tries to pass off their #### on other teams (as the Rangers would find out during the infamous Chris Young deal) and their GM is a very smart man. It's very much likely that somehow or another, Kevin Towers will find a way to make any trade a three trade deal, and in return would somehow find a way to screw over the Rangers by managing to net Murton himself and leaving the Rangers on the short end of the stick.
Possible Draft Pick Compensation?
The Rangers could also find themselves enjoying a beavy of picks in next years draft if all falls right (unlikely, but it's good to hope.)
While none of the Rangers' one year commitments are going to be Type A Picks, there could be several first round sandwich picks, depending on what happens:
Jason Jennings (RHP) - Recovery from a bad year could result in a Type B pick for Texas if he proves to be healthy.
Milton Bradley (RF) - Staying sane and healthy could get him a job as a DH somewhere.
Ben Broussard (1B) - Could be the next Ryan Kelsko, getting the Rangers a solid pick without doing much.
All in all, that's potentially three picks for the Rangers if the rankings fall right, five if somehow or another Jennings and Bradley are able to rate as Type A's.
Barring any other moves, the Rotation appears as follows:
Kevin Millwood (RHP)
Vicente Padilla (RHP)
Jason Jennings (RHP)
Brandon McCarthy (RHP)
Kason Gabbard (LHP)
That makes for a solid, but unspecacular rotation. However, if Millwood, Padilla and Jennings improve to their 2006 seasons, rather than their 2007's, that's a potential playoff rotation, especially if McCarthy continues to improve and Gabbard doesn't implode. However, that's a lot to ask. If anything, at the very least, Jennings could bring back a draft pick, or pitch well enough that when Texas is out of it by May, they could begin entertaining trade talks and get back a good player or two.
Coco Crisp Deals Are Dead
There's been a lot of rumors tossed around, and a lot of talk from Red Sox fans that the Red Sox should send Coco Crisp over to the Rangers for one of their highly regarded catching prospects. Peter Gammons, in a recent chat, even had the Rangers (and Oakland) being the likely favorites for Crisp, seeing both teams as needing players.
They are delusional. It ain't happening.
Back when the off-season first started, there was talk that the Rangers and Red Sox had agreed on a potential Crisp for Gerald Laird swap. It was understandable, as it was two players who had no future in their respective organizations, had three cheap years of control left each and filled holes for each organization. The Rangers have no centerfielder and Varitek isn't going to last forever. It was a classic apples and oranges trade that should have worked.
However, the Red Sox instead decided A) to enter into the Johan Santana sweepstakes and B) change the offer for the Rangers, hoping to net more prospects and get a lot more value for Crisp than he was probably worth.
Texas backed out and instead got Josh Hamilton, who has some risk, but also a lot more of a ceiling than Crisp had and has more service time.
So, as you can see, there isn't room for Texas and Boston is now backed into a corner, as they have a brewing problem on their hand and the number of places they can send Crisp to is drying up fast.
So no, there will be no Coco for Texas.
Sorry.
Bottsy At First...Not A Good Idea
Jason Botts apparently is going to see time at first base and will make the team as the platoon partner for Frank Catalonotto and Ben Broussard in left and at first.
I'm not so sure that first base is a good idea. Botts was converted to left field after back issues forced him there. I don't have much experience as far as diamond experience (I was a catcher in high school), but as far as first base goes, it does involve a lot of bending and leaning. And if Botts' back is as balky as it sounds, this might not go well.
On the other hand, Texas has a fantastic medical team, so the Rangers might be able to keep him healthy. Who knows?
Where To Send Shelton To
With Shelton still passing through waivers, I think it's a fair possibility that he's going to get claimed. WIth that in mind, the Rangers should look into seeing what they could get for him.
Though streaky, Shelton is a decent player that can play the four corners and he's a young alternative to some of the usual suspects (Sean Casey anyone?) And, taking a look around the league, there are some places where he'd fit in nicely.
The most immediate fit is San Francisco, unless they want to use Rich Aurillia there. However, in terms of prospects, I don't see much that San Fran would have to offer, as all their best prospects were either just drafted or are named Angel Villalona. Sergio Romo, a live arm that is destined for the bullpen, would be the best fit.
Is there anything else I could do? I don't think so. I would say Florida, but Shelton might be too expensive for them (and I'm being serious. Florida and Oakland seem to be racing each other to see who can get the lower payroll.) The Yankees would be another alternative, but not only do they have too many roster spots taken up by the dead (Giambi), the rude (Duncan) and the Betemiet, but they also seem to be waiting for Mark Teixeira to inevitably hit the market so they can spend the Giambi savings on him.
So, I'd call up Brian Sabean and ask if he's willing to do a Romo for Shelton swap. Not only would it net the Rangers something, think of the newspaper headlines in Dallas when it's announced that the Rangers have just brought in their own Romo. It would be classic.
Rangers May Have Waited Too Long To Sell High On Luis Mendoza
I like Luis Mendoza more than most. However, I think the Rangers may have waited too long to sell on him, as I think his value has peaked.
There's been a lot of talk about Mendoza being a potential back of the rotation starter for the Rangers, and that he could even push one of the vets out of the rotation.
Please.
Mendoza has done nothing to really merit the love he has gotten. He's been rather inconsistent, has been released by an organization at least once (Boston) and despite a nice run here in Texas, that was only after a late surge.
Honestly, I would have let people know that Mendoza was available, and maybe have made a trade (possibly with Laird.)
According to Evan Grant, Jason Jennings may be a Ranger in the relatively near future.
My take on that?
I figured that the Rangers would be signing a pitcher soon, as Texas has never been one to rely on a lot of youth in the rotation as far as unproven pitchers are concerned (and, despite their service time, McCarthy and Gabbard are still relatively unproven). With Edinson Volquez now a Red, Texas was almost certain to look for a high upside vet to take over the three or four spot, depending on who it was.
The question is, is Jennings that?
Jennings was the youngest of the broken pitchers category, having undergone surgery to fix a torn flexor tendon and was said to be ready for Spring Training. However, Jennings doesn’t have the greatest control, seeing his K to Walk Ratio over the past few years and he doesn’t have a legitimate out pitch. He was remarkably durable, however, and does do a good job of inducing groundballs. Provided that Young and Kinsler are on their toes when he pitches, he could be effective. He also has experience pitching in a worse pitcher’s park than Texas in Colorado.
And, if the Rangers are out of it and Jennings is effective, he could be flipped for a young player ready to help the Rangers, perhaps an outfielder or a third baseman (as Chris Davis is inevitably going to move to first, in spite of the Rangers possibly looking to move him to right field.)
The only real question is whether or not Jennings can make it in the AL. The lineups are deeper and he doesn’t have the benefit of cruising through the lower third of the lineup, which is always a problem for NL Pitchers. Nonetheless, it’s a low risk move that could pay dividends.
Catching Situation Sorting Itself Out...In A Way
It looks like the Rangers are planning on keeping Gerald Laird, at least until midseason or until the end Spring Training should someone need a starter for the simple reason that they feel his value is at a low. It also looks like, with the recent signing of Adam Melhuse to a minor league deal with a spring training invite, that the Rangers are planning on sending Jarrod Saltalamacchia down to Oklahoma to start the season, with the intent of flipping Laird at the deadline and calling Salty back then.
In a way, it might be for the best, considering that Atlanta may have rushed Salty up to the minors and Texas kept him up here to fill in the hole left at first by Teixiera leaving town. However, I thought that Laird would have had a lot more value around the league. The two spots I thought might have worked out were:
Boston – Laird could have backed up Jason Varitek before being asked to take on starting catching duties. And Texas could have netted Coco Crisp. That was the idea that was going on until Boston reversed course and demanded Eric Hurley, Luis Mendoza and C.J. Wilson back in return.
Mets – Here was another spot that I felt would work, as Laird would have been a cheap option for Minaya, and return could have netted Texas Lastings Milledge. Instead, Milledge was sent to Washington for Brian Schneider. Weirdness.
Other Transactions
Jamey Wright is close to signing a Minor League deal with a spring training invite with Texas, bringing him back to the team. Wright was mediocre as a starter, but was solid as a reliever, though his amount of walks worries me. Still, Wright is a good guy to have in the swingman role, though a cheaper option would be to use Kameron Loe in that role, which would be a cheaper decision to use.
Another thing, the signing of Eddie Guardado (and have been for the last month, apparently), but here’s the problem. Guardado is likely going to sign a major league deal, meaning another move must be made on the 40 Man roster, which recently saw the departure of Bill White to make room for Kazuo Fukumori. My guess is that the next to go is Nelson Cruz, followed then by either Jason Botts or Travis Metcalf.
That’s all I an say after Billy Beane, deciding that he had gone the distance with the club he had, decided to blow the whole thing up and start afresh. Trading two of his most valuable commodities (Dan Haren and Nick Swisher), Beane went and traded them both for a load of prospects, many of which will be arriving at Oakland’s front door within the year.
What this has done is re-energize a Athletics farm system that was shallow in terms of talent and was arguably in the bottom third of baseball and elevated it to the middle of the pack.
So, let’s take a look at how the system would rate now. Those that made the original Oakland list are in green. The new arrivials are standard black. Some of these prospects you have seen before (Arizona’s Prospect Report), but overall, there is some new content to check out here.
Athletics Top 15
1 – Daric Barton (1B)
DOB: 8/16/85
Drafted: 1st round, 2003, California High School (Cardinals)
2008 Club: Oakland Athletics (MLB)
Height/Weight: 6-0/205
Bats/Throws: L/R
The Skinny: Barton was regarded, at the time of the Mark Mulder deal, to be the real centerpiece of the deal. Since then, Barton hasn’t disappointed, but with the emergence of Dan Haren as the ace of the staff, Barton is strictly a side piece that could make the entire deal a slam dunk winner for Oakland (considering that Kiki Calero also came in the deal.) He was called up late in the year and left a good enough impression for people to be hopeful for the future.
The Good: The gifted natural hitter was holding his own as a 20-year-old at Triple-A before breaking a bone in his elbow in a freak collision on a pickoff throw. Both his approach and his pitch recognition are above-average on a major-league level, and he can make contact on pitches of any type in any location.
The Bad: The biggest power potential that was once seen in Barton has never arrived, meaning that Barton is going to be a rather unconventional first baseman. Many believe that while he’s got the power to hit 30+ homers annually, he may never do so. As far as his defense, Barton was originally drafted as a catcher, but no one thought he’d be able to stay there. Oakland hoped to develop his bat faster, so they moved him to first base. Because of the power outage, Barton was moved to third, where he profiled better, but his terrible fielding resulted in a move back to first. Hence, he’s awful defensively.
Projection: Low. Barton has nothing left to prove and is ready to start contributing to the big league club this season, so this is likely the last year we’ll see him.
What He Can Be: A First Baseman that will get on base and hit twenty Homers.
2008 Course Of Action: The job is Barton’s starting next year, and with Jack Cust now installed as the everyday DH, this will likely force Oakland to trade Dan Johnson. That said, Barton probably isn’t a player I would be thrilled to have as my everyday first baseman, but he’s serviceable and in time would allow Oakland to take it’s time with a better power option in Chris Carter.
2 – Faustino De Los Santos (RHP)
DOB: 2/15/86
Signed: 2005, Dominican Republic (White Sox)
2008 Club: Stockton Ports (High A)
Height/Weight: 6-0/205
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Seeming to come out of nowhere, De Los Santos has dominated the American minor leagues and gave Low A Kannapolis an ace at the top of it’s rotation last season. He appeared in the Futures Game and game up a homer to uberprospect Justin Upton before a promotion to High A, where he remained until the trade for Nick Swisher.
The Good: De Los Santos has a neat fastball, sitting in the low 90’s and touches 96 with some sinking action. He’s got a very good curve with late movement that is a plus pitch. He’s also begun work on improving his changeup.
The Bad: The usual. De Los Santos needs to continue building his durability in order for him to continue logging some more innings, along with work to improve his arsenal of tools. He’s also a bit overaggressive, which costs him velocity and command over his stuff.
Projection: High. De Los Santos needs more experience, which could only come with time, as well as refinement. He also needs to improve that changeup, lest he be limited to a bullpen role. Whatever he is, he should do it well. This is a potential All-Star talent the Athletics have gotten, a arm that rivals many of those that are in the Rangers’ system, and they’ll do their best to make sure De Los Santos comes to fruition.
What He Can Be: A Rotation Strikeout Artist
2008 Course Of Action: De Los Santos was going to start in High A for the White Sox until the trade went down. I don’t see anything that would change, except that he’ll be heading to the California League instead of the Carolina League, and hence going to a hitter’s league instead of a pitcher’s league. I don’t think it’ll affect him too much, as with his stuff, he should handle the change with no problem.
3– Carlos Gonzalez (RF)
DOB: 10/17/85
Signed: Venezuela, 2002 (Diamondbacks)
2008 Club: Sacramento River Cats (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 6-1/200
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: Gonzalez’s stock is took a bit of a tumble early one, but he was able to adjust to the more advanced level of pitching in Double A and earned himself a promotion to Tucson. All in all, it was a good season, but the emergence of Chris B. Young and Justin Upton in Arizona, plus the extension given to Eric Byrnes resulted in Gonzalez lacking a place to play. Hence, he became an extremely attractive player to acquire and was the centerpiece of the Dan Haren trade.
The Good: Gonzalez has some of the best tools in the system. Gonzalez has a smooth, fluid stroke, above-average power, good range in right field. He hits to a decent average and has a cannon for an arm. He’s got some wheels on him as well.
The Bad: Gonzalez is a bit aggressive at the plate, leading to high strikeout totals. There have been some concerns over his work ethic at times, but Gonzalez kicked it up a notch when competition arrived in the form of Aaron Cunningham.
Projection: Average. Gonzalez has the tools, the youth and some success in the upper minors, but he still needs some seasoning. In my opinion, Gonzalez should remain in Triple A for the meantime, where he could put up some monster numbers in the Pacific Coast League next year, before allowing him to take Swisher’s old place in right.
What He Come: An All-Star Right Fielder
2008 Course Of Action: I feel Gonzalez should be sent to Triple A, where he can finish his development process, but the amount of trades and lack of warm bodies to fill up the major league bench in Oakland (which consists of, right now, Travis Buck, Mark Kotsay and Jack Cust, respectively), Oakland could be tempted to promote him early and have him skip the level.
4 – Gio Gonzalez (LHP)
DOB: 9/19/85
Drafted: 1st round, 2004, Florida High School (White Sox)
2008 Club: Sacramento River Cats (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 5-11/185
Bats/Throws: R/L
The Skinny: After a year with the Phillies, Gonzalez was sent back to the White Sox in the Freddy Garcia deal. His 2007 season was pretty good and has merited the trade back. However, in Kenny William’s delusion of contention, he was sent to Oakland as a part of the Nick Swisher trade..
The Good: Gonzalez is a K machine, pure and simple. However, what’s really special is that he has increased his groundout totals, always a plus at the Cell. His fastball has good velocity for a southpaw, but his curve is a filthy pitch that is his out pitch. His changeup, once a work in progress, is becoming a solid pitch as well, giving him a complete starters arsenal.
The Bad: Command is still and issue and will result in him getting some tough nights in the bigs. Despite a reduction in his flyball tendancies, they nonetheless will be a concern moving forward. His build also doesn't lend much to durability and ESPN’s Keith Law has reported that Gonzalez gets rattled on the mound and doesn’t respond to adversity right now.
Projection: Low. Gonzalez should be a factor for the A’s in a year’s time after some time spent in Triple A. He should be much better as an Athletic due to their stadium than he would have ever been with the White Sox. Still, there seems to be a sense that Chicago sold high on Gonzalez and he might not be as good as I feel he is.
What He Can Be: A Number Two Starter.
2008 Course Of Action: Gonzalez isn’t ready to be a part of the Oakland rotation just yet, meaning he’ll be a Rivercat to begin the year. However, he should be up with the big league club come August, and should be a rotation fixture come 2009.
5 – Aaron Cunningham (OF)
DOB: 4/24/86
Drafted: 6th round, 2005, Everett Junior College (White Sox)
2008 Club: Midland Rockhounds (Double A)
Height/Weight: 5-11/195
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Cunningham has been involved in a pair of trades now as well, as he was originally traded by the White Sox to the Diamondbacks for second base prospect Danny Richar, in order fill the hole in second base for 2008. However, the Diamondbacks were able to develop Cunningham further from the raw product he was when he arrived, as Cunningham jumped three levels and ended the year in Double A. He was then a part of the trade for Dan Haren, giving more outfield depth to the A’s.
The Good: Cunningham doesn’t have something that he does best, but he does most things well. He’s got a great swing and makes solid contact with the ball, plus some solid power potential, possible 20 bomb potential. He hits to all fields and he’s got solid speed on him as well. Many were wondering if Cunningham could play anywhere other than left field, but it turns out that he’s not half bad in center or right field. All in all, he’s a good prospect.
The Bad: Cunningham's pitch recognition still needs work, as he doesn’t draw enough walks.
Projection: Average. Cunningham is still developing as a player, but he's got a good tool set. Many are divided as to how they seem Cunningham long term. I may have overrated him originally, but I believe he’s better than the fourth outfielder projection many are tabbing him with already. Give him two years and you’ll have a solid player, depending on what you want to do with Travis Buck, you could shop one of the two at a later date for something nice.
What He Can Be: A average left fielder.
2008 Course Of Action: Cunningham will be headed to Midland for the year, with a possible promotion to Sacramento in the future if he continues to hit. Don’t expect to see him anytime soon in Oakland however, as he’s got a bit to go.
6 – Chris Carter (1B)
DOB: 12/18/86
Drafted: 15th round, 2005, Nevada High School (White Sox)
2008 Club: Stockton Ports (High A)
Height/Weight: 6-4/220
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Carter is already looking like a late round steal, and has been mashing ever since the White Sox drafted him. However, the White Sox, under the delusion that they are close to contention, traded him for Carlos Quentin (which in itself isn’t bad, as Quentin is a solid young player who filled a need), but Carter didn’t stay long in the desert and was a part of the Dan Haren trade. He was very nearly a Texas Ranger, however, as a deal for Akinori Otsuka that would have sent Carter to Texas was all but done until the White Sox pulled out due to Otsuka’s medicals.
The Good: Carter is quite simply the best power prospect in the Athletics’ system. He’s got great strength and power to all fields and has improved on his plate recognition, which was good to begin with. Now, Carter is able to draw a lot more walks while reducing his strikeouts and is able to choose his pitch to drive it out of the park.
The Bad: Carter is limited to first base due to limited athleticism and is a bad defender even there. While he may eventually be a passable defender, he’s a long term DH in the making. He’s also a below average runner.
Projection: Average. Carter is still a very unpolished prospect, but he has the potential to be the first pure power bat Oakland has had since Jason Giambi was wearing green and gold. He’ll take some time, but he’s a long term middle of the order run producer in the making and that is nothing to sneeze at.
What He Can Be: A Slugging First Baseman
2008 Course Of Action: Carter will likely take it one level at a time and will spend the year in Stockton, where he should have plenty of opportunities to put up some impressive power numbers this season with all the small parks in the California League.
7 – Trevor Cahill (RHP)
DOB: 3/01/88
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2006, California High School
2008 Club: Stockton Ports (High A)
Height/Weight: 6-3/195
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: A surprise pick for the Athletics last year, Cahill had a solid senior season in high school as a first year pitcher, but fell after illness caused him to tail off. Oakland took him and thus far, Cahill has continued the tradition of Kane County pitching dominance. But his big coming out party was when he made a spot start for Sacramento at the end of the season and carried a perfect game and a no-hitter once the perfecto was gone until the 8th. Now that’s awesomeness.
The Good: Cahill’s biggest strength is his command and control, which are surprisingly good for a young pitcher. He’s able to locate the ball low and induce groundballs. He throws in the low 90’s and can touch 90’s, but his best pitch is a spike curveball that has wicked break. He's a solid athlete and is regarded to be an excellent character guy.
The Bad: Cahill doesn't over-power anyone. He also needs to refine a third pitch.
Projection: High. Cahill is still developing as a pitcher, as he was only pitching for a year after he was drafted, but the promise is there for him to be a capable major league starter.
What He Can Be: A Number 3 starter, maybe a two.
2008 Course Of Action: Cahill will be heading to the California League, where his groundball tendencies should help him survive the year in the extreme hitters league.
8 – James Simmons (RHP)
DOB: 9/29/86
Drafted: 1st Round, 2007, UC Riverside
2008 Club: Midland Rockhounds (Double A)
Height/Weight: 6-3/205
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Simmons was regarded to be one of the most polished pitchers in the draft and was rated as one of the closest pitchers to the majors. After going 11-3 with a 2.40 ERA in his junior season at UC Riverside, the Athletics took him in the 1st round, where he has already reached Double A.
The Good: Simmons’ game is all about command and control and he has it in ####s. His stuff is okay, but not overwhelming, with a fastball that sits around 90-92, complimented by a plus changeup and an average breaking ball.
The Bad: Simmons isn’t overpowering and while he may be close to the majors, he’s not a sure fire star or anything. He’s pretty much what I would call a right handed Joe Saunders, a guy that takes the ball every fifth day and gives you a shot to win. He also loses speed on his fastball late in a game.
Projection: Low. Simmons will rise quickly once he’s assigned to repeat Double A again. Again, he’s got limited upside, which is the only thing you can really hold against him as far as his tools go.
What He Can Be: A back of the rotation starter.
2008 Course Of Action: Look for Simmons to repeat Double A this year before he gets an assignment to Triple A, where Oakland hopes he might be able to be a factor for a September call up.
9 – Kevin Melillo (2B)
DOB: 5/14/82
Drafted: 5th round, 2004, University of South Carolina
2008 Club: Sacramento River Cats (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 6-0/190
Bats/Throws: L/R
The Skinny: Melillo’s 2007 campaign is pretty much the same for what you would expect for him. He really is just what he is, an average second baseman that could be a steady regular in the majors.
The Good: An offensive minded second baseman, Milillo has a short, quick swing that has suprising pop. He works the count well, gets on base, and all the usual things that Oakland likes it’s players to do. His defensive fundamentals are good. All in all, he’s near ready for the show and could be a producer in the 6 or 7 hole.
The Bad: Melillo has had some minor knee issues in the past and when he falls in love with the long ball, he gets pull happy. He also has below average range and hands, and is nowhere near the Gold Glover type defense Oakland has come to expect from it’s second basemen.
Projection: Low. Melillo is ready for the show and with this year looking like a rebuilding one, Oakland would be wise to see what they have.
What He Can Be: An average second baseman.
2008 Course Of Action: Ellis has recently had his $5 million club option for 2008 exercised, but that doesn’t mean he’ll remain on the team, especially now that Oakland is in full scale rebuilding mode. Ellis is pretty attractive right now as a cheap date and could fetch a decent prize while allowing Melillo to play everyday.
10 – Sean Doolittle (1B)
DOB: 9/26/86
Drafted: 1st Round (S), 2007, Virginia
2008 Club: Stockton Ports (High A)
Height/Weight: 6-3/190
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: Doolittle was on the rise after a year in Virginia and was projected to be picked somewhere in the lower end of the first round. However, Porcello’s fall along with some other shenanigans with the Pirates resulted in Doolittle falling into the supplemental round, where Oakland took him. He had a pretty good debut for Oakland.
The Good: An athletic first baseman, Doolittle makes good, consistent solid contact from the left side and should hit for average in the future. He has an above average arm, which was seen from his days as a two way player at Virginia, plus he shows decent range and can even run a bit too.
The Bad: Doolittle lacks any sort of power potential at first base, which isn’t what you want out of a power position.
Projection: Average. Doolittle may rise quickly and while he may not have home run power, doubles power may exist within him.
What He Can Be: A average first baseman that hits for average, but not for power.
2008 Course Of Action: Doolittle has the talent to be a productive major leaguer, but it won’t be for Oakland. Barton is now the Athletics’ first baseman and the A’s now have a stronger but unfortunately for him, he’s also blocked by both Dan Johnson and Daric Barton, meaning that in the future, Doolittle’s likely value to Oakland is trade bait.
11 – Henry Rodriguez (RHP)
DOB: 2/25/87
Signed: 2003, Venezuela
2008 Club: Midland Rockhounds (Double A)
Height/Weight: 6-1/175
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: A big signing out of Venezuela a few years ago has taken a big step forward with the Cougars this year, though his record doesn’t show for it. Still, it’s pretty impressive considering how raw he was last year when he was torched in the Arizona Rookie League.
The Good: Rodriguez has the best raw stuff in the organization, as his fastball sits in the low to mid 90’s and has been clocked as high as 100. His curveball and changeup look like they could eventually be plus pitches, which could give him a potentially lethal arsenal if he’s able to put it all together. All in all, he’s a project, but one that could pay off big.
The Bad: Rodriguez is, as I’ve said, a raw product, and he’s had some issues with control that have resulted in some ugly outings for him. There are also maturity issues with Rodriguez, but that really isn’t unexpected.
Projection: Very High. Rodriguez could become a beast if he continues to work on his stuff. He’s more than just an arm strength type of prospect and he’s got the skill set to be a solid middle of the rotation K machine if he continues to develop on schedule. Still, he’s got a long way to go.
What He Can Be: A middle of the rotation strikeout machine.
2008 Course Of Action: With another season under his belt in Double A, Rodriguez could very well help his cause to eventually become a option for Oakland come 2009 or 2010, joining some of the other young athletics in the rebuilding effort.
12 – Ryan Sweeney (CF)
DOB: 2/20/85
Drafted: 1st round, 2003, Iowa High School
2008 Club: Sacramento River Cats (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 6-4/215
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: The former first rounder did nothing to shake his bust tag and didn’t earn a late season call up, even with Chicago’s less than stellar outfield situation. Chicago was shopping him furiously and finally got to get rid of him in Swisher deal.
The Good: Sweeney is big, athletic, and has some offensive skills. He has a quick swing, some power and makes good contact. He doesn’t’ strikeout often and has enough wheels to play center, along with a strong arm.
The Bad: Sweeney was always to projected to hit for power. That obviously haven’t happened and most don’t see him as a centerfielder long term. He’s also got issues against lefties as well.
Projection: Low. Sweeney may be able to stick with Oakland as a centerfielder in the short term, if they feel he might be able to be adequate in center, and he may be able to tap into that long dormant power potential with the right coaching. I kinda doubt it, though.
What He Can Be: A starting centerfielder
Timetable: While Sweeney has clearly stagnated, it’s hard to see him avoiding a third year at Triple-A without a monster spring training. This next year is absolutely pivotal for him.
13 – Jermaine Mitchell (CF)
DOB: 11/2/84
Drafted: 5th round, 2006, UNC-Greensboro
2008 Club: Stockton Ports (High A)
Height/Weight: 6-0/200
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: . Taken from a small school, many felt that Mitchell would only be organizational filler, a fourth outfielder at best. He's since proven to be potentially better than that after another solid season, this time for Kane County.
The Good: Mitchell could be one of the latest Oakland scouting department steals if he continues to produce. Mitchell is a solid centerfielder with a good arm, good range and solid speed. He’s also got a quick bat and some excellent plate discipline. All in all, he’s a good package of tools that could really blossom into something good.
The Bad: Mitchell’s swing is complex and needs to be simplified. The power that was thought to have been in Mitchell hasn’t manifested himself. He’s also murdered by right handers and had some extreme home-away splits as well, meaning that he’s got some work to do unless he wants to be a platoon centerfielder.
Projection: High. Mitchell took a step forward in his development, not as big as Oakland may have expected, but it’s a start.
What He Can Be: An everyday big-league outfielder.
2008 Course Of Action: I expect Mitchell to be the Ports' starting centerfielder this season. Oakland eventually sees him to be a centerfielder for the future option, though at the moment, he's still got a long way to go.
14 – Brett Anderson (LHP)
DOB: 2/1/88
Drafted: 2nd round, 2006, Oklahoma High School (Diamondbacks)
2008 Club: Visalia Oaks (High A)
Height/Weight: 6-4/215
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: Last year, Anderson was one of the more difficult high school pitchers to evaluate, and his bonus demands resulted in him falling out of the first and supplemental rounds. The Diamondbacks were intrigued enough to pull the trigger on him, even though he wasn't a power pitcher and never will be. His final line was 11-7 with a 3.07 ERA between Low and High A, but Arizona won’t realize the returns on their investment, as he’s now an A.
The Good: The son of Oklahoma State coach Frank Anderson, Anderson's mechanics are solid and he has remarkable control of his breaking stuff and off-speed pitches. He's got a very deep repertoire, with three solid pitches, the best being a changeup that he can throw for strikes. He’s got a good pitcher’s build and could even add a little more mass.
The Bad: Anderson is also not very athletic and his fastball clocks in the high 80's, touching 91 on occasion.
Projection: Average. Anderson still has a lot of work to do in terms of improving himself, but his ability to induce groundballs and log in innings should result in some success in the majors. I feel he’s been overrated some due to his results, which are misleading, but his stuff isn’t fantastic and in the American League, he should fit in as a Number Three or Four starter. But hey, Barry Zito was able to last for a while with less than impressive repertoire and one major money pitch.
What He Can Be: An innings eater.
2008 Course Of Action: Anderson got hit hard in the California League and likely will repeat there to begin next year.
15 – Javier Herrera (OF)
DOB: 4/9/85
Signed: 2001, Venezuela
2008 Club: Sacramento River Casts (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 5-10/160
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: After missing a year thanks to Tommy John Surgery, Herrera had a mostly average comeback season. While it’s not pretty, it’s still a promising development and should be expected form a guy coming off TJ.
The Good: Herrera He has above-average hitting skills to go with plus power and speed, as well as good range to both sides in centerfield and an above-average arm.
The Bad: Herrera's conditioning is a bit of an issue, as he did put on some weight during his inactivity, but he was able to drop most of it. He’s also a bit reckless on the field, plus his power potential hasn’t manifested itself quite yet.
Projection: High. Herrera is still working to come all the way back from TJ, but so far so good.
What He Can Be: A above average centerfielder
2008 Course Of Action: Expect the Athletics to push Herrera a bit by promoting him to Triple A, where he could work well if he’s finally able to get his tools together.
Final Thoughts
With the rebuilding effort now in full swing, Oakland has a good deal of prospect depth to develop to form the core of their next championship core. With little in terms of long term contracts other than those that are immobile (Chavez, Crosby) and one major one leaving the books after this year (Kotsay), Oakland has the financial flexibility to work with to get this set of prospects going and locked up to some near term deals when the time comes. All in all, Oakland has enough to field a contender with what they have in their system, though the pitching won’t be as explosive as it once was, back in the day when the Big Three roamed MacAfee Coliseum.
One thing to note, however, is that Oakland hasn’t done a particularly good job of drafting high ceiling, star level talent. Much of their new top 15 is from outside of the organization, with 8 of the total top 15 and 6 of the top 10 being drafted by other squads. While much kudos needs to be given to Oakland for getting them, they do need to do a better job of drafting their own star players and not always playing it safe. Spending some more money on later round talents would be a start and revamping the international scouting system would be another way to help keep the pipeline to talent flowing to Oakland.
Sources, Scouting Reports, and Thanks to: Kevin Goldstein (Baseball Prospectus), Keith Law (ESPN), Soxprospects.com, B.J. Medrano, Jim Callis And The Rest Of Baseball America, Jonathan Mayo (MLB.com), MiLB.com, Sam Corral and Erica Belmontes, Ernie Carlson, Lonestarball.com, Jamey Newberg (Newbergreport.com), Brewerfan.net and Mike Hindman (Rangers Farm Report)
TIme when I try to forecast who will get into the Hall of Fame.
And every year, I've been wrong except for last year, when no brainers Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken got in (I whiffed on Gossage twice already.)
No matter.
Here's this year's edition.
Cooperstown Locks
Rich "Goose" Gossage – This is the year Goose gets in. He got close last season, even with Ripkin and Gwynn on the ballot and will almost certainly make the hall of fame, barring any sort of mental lapse amongst the voters. There is no reason why it should have taken this long, but as I have said, I believe that Gossage’s years as a setup man may have hurt his case for the Hall of Fame.
Jim Rice – There’s been a lot of debate recently as to whether or not Rice truly is Hall of Fame worthy. Rice does have some good career averages, and he’s got 382 HR’s, though that isn’t good enough for a man with the reputation for a power hitter. His numbers were partially inflated by Fenway, but he did net a MVP award in 1978. He does get bonus points for being a slugger in a Pitcher’s Era, however and overall, with his support in Boston and much of the Eastern Seaboard, I say he gets in this year. I don’t agree with it, however.
Dark Horses
Bert Blyleven – A great pitcher, ranks fifth all time in strikeouts (3701), nine all time in shutouts, and 13th all time in innings. His career record is great (287-250) his ERA is solid (3.31) and has a career ERA of 2.47 in the post season. If he had better run support, he’d easily have over 300 wins. He should have been in a long time ago, but for some reason, voters are reluctant to admit him in, yet they are upset over why a lesser pitcher, Jack Morris, whom Blyleven laps in every category and is even better in the post-season than Morris, is not in. There’s been a rise of support for Blyleven. Unfortunately, it won’t be enough.
Tim Raines – Raines merits induction, as he was one of the best Leadoff Men in baseball for much of his career. He hit .294 lifetime, tallied 2605 hits, has a career on base percentage of .385, and scored 1571 times. People crack on his stolen bases, saying that he was afraid to drop his stolen base percentage when in reality, Raines stole bases only when necessary, not just to pad stats. He also walked more than he struck out. However, Raines won’t get his due, as people will again feel he wasn’t as good as Henderson, his rival as far as leadoff men are concerned, plus his cocaine use. Raines may have lasted even longer in baseball if he hadn’t played much of his career on the hard Astroturf in Montreal. I feel she should get in. The voters are divided so far.
Screwed
Lee Smith – A good closer, is number two on the All-Time Saves List (478), and truckload of innings logged in. His career ERA is good (3.03) and he was usually consistent. However, what kills Smith is that most people see him as a compiler and is regarded by many to be consistent, but not dominant. The fact that he only played on two playoff teams and was 0-2 with an 8.44 ERA in the postseason doesn’t help him much. Still, accumulating 478 saves is amazing (just ask Trevor Hoffman), but unfortunately, it’s looking more and more like Smith will be at the mercy of the Veteran’s committee and won’t be elected by the BBWAA.
Tommy John – Almost as good as Blyleven, in terms of Wins (288-231) and ERA (3.34), John would have been a lock if he had just won 300 wins. However, people don’t realize that had it not been for the procedure that now bears his name, he wouldn’t even be close to his numbers. John was a great pitcher for some time. Why he’s not in is beyond me.
Dave Concepcion – The last member of the Big Red Machine not in the Hall (not counting Pete Rose), Concepcion was probably one of the best shortstops of his time. Many remember him for his glove work, but his career averages (.267/.322/.357) and his 2326 hits aren’t enough to get him in. It’s possible that many could point to Ozzie Smith as a possible induction into the Hall of Fame from Concepcion, but unfortunately, I don’t think he’ll get in, leaving him as a option for the veteran’s committee.
Andre Dawson – Blessed with a long, steady career that lasted 21 seasons, Dawson tallied 438 homers, 2774 hits, 314 steals, and was the 1987 NL MVP. Dawson was a great defender at both right and centerfield and hit with good power. He didn’t walk much, which is why he’s got a #### OBP, but he does have some favorable stats to some Hall of Famers already in. He was also one of the classiest men to play the game, another reason why I like him, though that’s beside the point. But unfortunately, he's seen as a complier, and most likely won't be allowed in anytime soon, which sucks for him.
Alan Trammell – Trammell totaled 2,365 hits, 185 homers, 412 doubles, 236 steals and a World Series MVP to his name. Those are solid stats and should be Hall of Fame worthy when you consider that Trammell played in an era when shortstops were expected to defend, not him. However, shortly after Trammell retired, the rise of offensive shortstops, such as Ripken, Jeter, Garciaparra, Rodriguez and others have made his numbers look quite pedestrian when compared to how they will finish. Because of that, Trammell isn’t getting in, even though he probably should.
Harold Baines – Seemingly ageless, as he played for over 20 seasons, Baines is probably regarded as one of the best hitters in White Sox history. As a whole, he was a very good hitter for a very long time, with a career .289 Batting Average and totals of 2,866 hits and 384 home runs. He played on six postseason teams but never won a ring. Not at all shabby. However, Baines was a terrible defender and never had a monster season. He also never really took walks either, meaning he’s out.
The Hall of Very Good
Dave Parker – The Cobra has a lot of good credentials. He’s got 2712 hits, led the league three times in scoring, is in the top 30 of all time in doubles and was the 1978 NL MVP, three Gold Gloves. He also won two batting titles. Those are good numbers, but not great ones, and Parker’s cocaine use has turned off several of the more self righteous voters, which means Parker is likely going in that class of Very Good, but not Hall Worthy players.
Jack Morris – Morris is a somewhat lesser version of Tommy John. He has pitched well in the postseason, and averaged at least 14 wins per season. However, Morris has an ERA of 3.90 and going through some of his career numbers, many of his wins are the result of good run support and a strong defensive unit. I don’t think he should be allowed in, even though many of the old school media are pushing hard for him to go in. He’d easily be the worst Hall of Fame pitcher ever elected.
Mark McGwire – 500 Home Runs used to guarantee you admission into the hall of fame, but times have changed and McGwire has been made the posterboy of the era. It’s not fair, but unfortunately, it happens. He won’t get in, but will likely hang around the ballot. He could get in during his final year of eligibility.
Don Mattingly – One of the most popular Yankees in history, a nine-time Gold Glover, a six time All-Star, and the 1985 MVP. A good man and a great leader, who stuck with the Yankees through the lean years and retired just before all the fun started. Early in his career, Mattingly seemed like a lock, but lingering back problems would eventually claim his career. Again, as with another 80’s era first baseman, Will Clark, Mattingly had good career averages (.307-.358-.471), but his overall numbers (222 HR’s, 2153 Hits) aren’t enough to get him in, though he’ll be immortalized in Legends Park sooner or later. To put it bluntly, Yankee fans, let it go. Unfortunately, he’ll hang around for the next few years, making this a perennial comment.
Dale Murphy – Murphy has two MVP awards and 398 homers. But other than that, he's not Hall Worthy.
Chuck Finley – Finely made quite a few All-Star teams based on raw win totals alone, but his control was average and his ERA doesn’t fairly show that he could be god-awful a great deal. He did have a reputation as an innings eater, but other than that, what else can you say except that he’s a slightly above average pitcher who likely would be vastly overpaid if he played today and isn’t worthy of Hall of Fame consideration.
Robb Nen – A former Ranger Draft Pick, Nen was traded to Florida for Cris Carpenter (the bad one) and became one of the better closers in baseball, finishing his career with 314 saves, a 45-42 record, a career 2.98 ERA and a WHIP of 1.213. However, that’s not hall worthy, meaning Nen is out.
No Chance In Hell
Chuck Knoblauch – Knoblauch certainly looked like a Hall of Fame caliber player back when he was in Minnesota. However, a neurosis that affected his glovework and eventually his hitting ended his career. Many felt that the pressure of playing in New York finally got to him. However, the fact is that what’s done is done and in the end, Knoblauch doesn’t deserve to be bronzed in Cooperstown. His mention in the Mitchell Report will also mean he falls off the ballot.
Todd Stottlemyre–An okay pitcher for the most part, I remember him mostly from his brief time with the Texas Rangers. He shouldn’t be on here. Who screens these things?
Rod Beck –Sorry, I know Beck is very much beloved by many fans, but realistically, he had a 7 year run in which he was good, after which he flamed out spectacularly. This may be his first and only time you’ll see him on the ballot.
David Justice – Justice is going to be one and done on the ballot. He was good for a long time, but was never great. His numbers (1571 Hits, 305 HR, .279 Career BA) just aren’t special enough, though he’ll likely get credit for all of his playoff experience. But, to be quite honest, he just doesn’t belong on the ballot.
Travis Fryman – Fryman played for a long time, both in Detroit and in Cleveland, and was an All-Star five times, but for the most part he was just a solid contributor and nothing more.
Brady Anderson – Another solid contributor, nothing more, Anderson shouldn’t be on the ballot.
Shawon Dunston – Dunston had a decent start to his career, but injuries and ineffectiveness turned him into a very good bench player for the most part. He was also named as one of “Barry’s Guys” in the book Love Me, Hate Me, who defended Eric Davis, who was being berated by Bonds and the time, only to shut him up by grabbing Davis’ World Series ring and asking him “Have one of these?”
