There is some wisdom in what the Astros did during the off-season, in the trades that brought them Miguel Tejada, Jose Valverde, and Michael Bourn. While Ken Rosenthal can rail against the deals all he wants, there is one thing you need to keep in mind.
None of the players traded was really a superstar. In fact, many weren't really all that good.
Yes, I know, Chad Qualls and Brad Lidge are plenty badass. But Lidge was likely gone in a year and Qualls, while solid, isn't a lights out reliever.
And of the prospects, the only one of real note was Troy Patton, who was sent to the Orioles. Everyone else that was dealt was either a disappointment or wasn't a world beater.
Overall, the Astros likely looked at their system, didn't like what they saw, and decided to spent what little collateral they had to improve their team. So long as they draft the best player available from now on, there is every reason that the Astros can replensih the farm in a short period of time.
That's IF they spend money and IF they draft the best player available, not just who will sign.
Koby Clemens Moving To Catcher
After another year of disappointment, the Astros are moving Koby Clemens back to catcher.
Originally drafted as a catcher, the Astros moved Clemens to third base, feeling that he would his stocky frame would allow him to take the abuse of catching, and his arm would be more than adequate from behind the plate. His bat, which has been disappointing thus far, would also look a lot better from behind the bag as well.
It's clear that there was some pressure on the Astros to draft Koby due to his dad, who was on the staff, but really, the Astros would have been better off spending the six figure bonus on someone else. Anyhow, Clemens could really provide some value from behind the plate if he's able to be a adequate catcher. Catching prospects are currently lacking in the majors and if Clemens can turn into at the very least a Gregg Zaun type of player, he's got a lot of value.
Astros Need To Re-Establish International Presence
Okay, one more, because quite frankly, I've had enough.
The Astros need to figure out why their pipeline to Latin America has dried up.
In the past, the Astros were kings of the Venezuelan Talent Market, with them signing player after player that was a serious talent. Some of the former talent mined from Venezuela: Bobby Abreu, Richard HIdalgo and Freddy Garcia, all of whom have enjoyed solid big league careers.
The talent has dried up.
Part of it has been Drayton McLane's tightening of the purse strings and refusing to pay up for big money talent in the draft or abroad. But the other part is that the Astros didn't evolve They weren't able to adjust for the times and as a result, several other teams now dominate the Venezuelan market and the Domincan, areas where the Astros did relatively well.
Whatever the case, it's time for Houston to re-establish their presence on the International Market.
Because all of the patch jobs, no matter the price, won't keep the franchise stable for much longer.
There have been a lot of rumors recently about the Cubbies wanting to make a trade for Marlon Byrd, ideally to be their centerfielder and to help push Felix Pie. Apparently, the deal would be for Matt Murton and possibly for pitching prospect Sean Gallagher.
This deal likely doesn't have much legs on it, if any.
First of all, as good as the Byrdman's seaosn was last year, I doubt he suddenly had a breakout in his early 30's. More than likely, he'll regress to his usual fourth outfielder status come April.
Second, I wouldn't trade Murton for Byrd straight up if I were the Cubs, but if they are willing to do it, I'd pull the trigger. Hell, I'd even include a pair of relievers in the deal for Murton and Gallagher, likely Scott Feldman and Robinson Tejeda. Not only would that give the Cubs more options to sift through, it opens up space on the 40 Man for someone.
However, as promising as the deal seemed, I doubt it will happen.
Complicating things further are the fact that the Padres want Murton as well, though I'm not sure what they would give up in return. San Diego usually tries to pass off their #### on other teams (as the Rangers would find out during the infamous Chris Young deal) and their GM is a very smart man. It's very much likely that somehow or another, Kevin Towers will find a way to make any trade a three trade deal, and in return would somehow find a way to screw over the Rangers by managing to net Murton himself and leaving the Rangers on the short end of the stick.
Possible Draft Pick Compensation?
The Rangers could also find themselves enjoying a beavy of picks in next years draft if all falls right (unlikely, but it's good to hope.)
While none of the Rangers' one year commitments are going to be Type A Picks, there could be several first round sandwich picks, depending on what happens:
Jason Jennings (RHP) - Recovery from a bad year could result in a Type B pick for Texas if he proves to be healthy.
Milton Bradley (RF) - Staying sane and healthy could get him a job as a DH somewhere.
Ben Broussard (1B) - Could be the next Ryan Kelsko, getting the Rangers a solid pick without doing much.
All in all, that's potentially three picks for the Rangers if the rankings fall right, five if somehow or another Jennings and Bradley are able to rate as Type A's.
Since I've still getting emails about why certain farm systems weren't reviewed (you didn't review this system, you ignored this prospect, you suck you Yankee/Red Sox hater, etc), I figured, what the hell, let me just start a regular feature.
Introducing The Prospect Six Pack, where I'll pick six random prospects and post up the mini scouting reports, semi-inspired by Kevin Goldstein. Enjoy.
Prospect Six Pack
Carlos Gomez (CF) – Mets
DOB: 12/4/85
Signed: 2002, Dominican Republic
2008 Club: Birmingham Mets (Double A)
Height/Weight: 6-2/170
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Gomez has been aggressively promoted by the Mets for quite some time, but when Lastings Milledge, Moises Alou and Shawn Green all got hurt around the same time, the Mets were forced to call up Gomez and put him into service. The result was predictable, as Gomez was undisciplined, raw and clearly not ready.
The Good: Part of the reason why Milledge was dealt was because the Mets feel that ultimately, Gomez will be better. He’s a great athlete with remarkable speed, a solid defender, and good power potential.
The Bad: As I said, Gomez was rushed and the result was poor plate disciplined, power potential that is undeveloped and some rawness in the field as well. The Mets need to have him in the minors, as he shouldn’t be on a major league bench.
Projection: Average. Gomez really had no business playing in the majors last year and the Mets gambled on him not getting his development stagnated by promoting him. That said, he could still be a quality prospect if the Mets don’t do anything stupid.
What He Can Be: An above average centerfielder with an exciting speed and power combination.
2008 Course Of Action: Gomez will likely be back in Double A, where regular playing time against appropriate competition should help him continue his development process. I’m hoping the Mets don’t pull a stunt like they did last year again.
Rick Porcello (RHP) – Tigers
DOB: 12/27/88
Drafted: 1st Round, 2007, New Jersey High School
2008 Club: West Michigan Whitecaps (Low A)
Height/Weight: 6-5/195
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Regarded to be the best prep pitcher since Josh Beckett, Porcello certainly looked it at times during his senior year at Seton Hall Prep and was reportedly considered by the Royals at two. However, what happened was that Porcello’s advisor, Scott Boras, demanded Beckett’s contract, which was a 4 year Major League Deal, plus a bonus adjusted for inflation. The result was that Porcello fell until the Tigers picked at 27, where they took the chance on him and gave him what Boras wanted, drawing the ire of Major League Baseball in return.
The Good: Porcello was described to be the best prep prospect in the class and has drawn Josh Beckett like comparisons. He throws a fastball that sits around 94-95 mph and hits 96, all with good movement on both his two and four seamer. He throws a curve in the low 70’s and a slider that sits at around 80. Finishing it all is his changeup, which is already a plus pitch and complements his curve well. All in all, that’s a hell of an arsenal, especially when you consider that most high school prospects only have two pitches when drafted.
The Bad: Porcello's command and control have been inconsistent. Many also wonder about his durability, as he hasn’t pitched as much because of the weather in the Northeast. The final flag is that because of his deal, Porcello has four years to develop and get to the Majors, whether he is ready or not.
Projection: Very High. Porcello could be the next Beckett, but he could also be god awful, as the contract is a contract that could stunt his development, especially if he struggles. So, he had better be what Boras has advertised. And, to be quite honest, I’m not sure that Porcello is much better than Jarrod Parker, whom the Diamondbacks took higher up and got for a less money than Porcello.
What He Can Be: A bonafide Ace.
2008 Course Of Action: Like it or not, the clock is ticking and Porcello will likely begin the season with the White Caps, where hopefully he’ll be ready for action.
Jay Bruce (CF) – Reds
DOB: 4/3/87
Drafted: 1st Round, 2005, Texas High School
2008 Club: Louisville Bats (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 6-3/195
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: Drafted by the Reds in the first round, Bruce has been compared by scouts to former major leaguer Larry Walker. Since coming into the system, Bruce has done nothing but hit for power and play some mean defense and is now on the fast path to the majors for the Reds. He’s already jumped from High A to Triple A and didn’t even stay long in Double A because he was so dominant.
The Good: Bruce has great tools all around the board. He’s got 30 home run potential and hits to all fields. Though he’s got only average speed, he’s a great base runner. He's got a strong arm and he has the range to play centerfield. He does have some issues hitting lefties, but he’s improved enough where he shouldn’t have many issues with them.
The Bad: His swing can get long, resulting in lots of strikeouts. And, while Bruce is average as a centerfielder now, it’s likely that he’ll eventually move to right field as his body fills out.
Projection: Average. Bruce has been translating his tools into performance for the past couple of seasons and he's moving faster than expected. He’s moved a lot faster than anyone could have anticipated. He’s also got the potential to get a lot better than he already is, a sobering thought.
What He Can Be: An All Star Quality Right Fielder, Like Larry Walker.
2008 Course Of Action: Josh Hamilton was traded to the Rangers to eventually open up a job for Bruce, should he win one in Spring Training. However, it’s more than likely that Bruce will start the season in the minors before being called up at midseason, depending on where the Reds are in the standings as well as when Ken Griffey Jr. makes his inevitable trip to the DL.
Colby Rasmus (CF) – Cardinals
DOB: 8/11/86
Drafted: 1st round, 2005, Alabama High School
2008 Club: Memphis Redbirds (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 6-2/185
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: Rasmus, the top prospect in the Cardinals system, enjoyed a breakout year in Double A and has rapidly developed faster than a lot of people may have thought possible, but it really shouldn’t be a surprise considering all the excellent prep outfield prospects drafted in 2005 (Jay Bruce, Cameron Maybin, Andrew McCutcheon, just to name a few).
The Good: Rasmus is one of the most athletic players in the Cardinals system with loads of tools. He’s got a quick bat and solid power potential to make him a 25-homer threat in the majors. He’s got good pitch recognition and should draw a good amount of walks in the majors. He’s also a dynamic centerfield, with good range and a strong arm.
The Bad: Rasmus has some problems with lefties and he can be over aggressive, leading to strikeouts and being caught stealing.
Projection: Average. Rasmus is nearly ready for the show and he’ll only get better as time goes on. Given time, he should be all that and more than what Jim Edmonds was for the Cardinals. Long term, Rasmus gives the Cardinals another middle of the order bat to plug in behind Albert Pujols, which should help the big man’s chances to see some pitches.
What He Can Be: A star center fielder.
2008 Course Of Action: In spite of what the Cardinals are saying about Rasmus being in the mix for their starting centerfielder job, that’s a hell of a jump to go from Double A to the Majors. Rasmus is going to be starting for the Redbirds, where he’ll get some more seasoning, and could perhaps see some action with the Cardinals come August, as he’s not ready yet.
Will Middlebrooks (SS) – Red Sox
DOB: 9/9/88
Drafted: 5th Round, 2007, Texas High School
2008 Club: Lowell Spinners (Short Season)
Height/Weight: 6-4/200
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: A Top baseball and football prospect (QB), Middlebrooks' two-sport status may have lead to his falling down to the 9th round of the draft. Boston, never a stranger to taking high ceiling talent in the lower rounds, pulled the trigger and signed him for almost a million dollars.
The Good: A fantastic athlete with potential on the field and on the mound, Middlebrooks has good power potential and makes good, solid contact with the bat. He’s got good speed and is an excellent baserunner as well. Middlebrooks also has a strong arm and exceptional hands defensively.
The Bad: Middlebrooks lacks range, making a move to third base all but inevitable. And while his speed is solid now, that could change as he continues to fill out and mature.
Projection: High. I like Middlebrooks and felt that Boston stolen him in the 5th round, which more than made up for their lack of a first rounder in 2007. While he didn’t make my top 15 of Sox Prospects, he could easily rise up that list, depending on his campaign.
What He Can Be: A power hitting third baseman in the mold of Troy Glaus.
2008 Course Of Action: I think Middlebrooks will be kept at shortstop for now and will be worked with in extended Spring Training until Lowell starts their season, after which, he’ll being the year as the Spinners’ starting shortstop.
Daniel Moskos (LHP) – Pirates
DOB: 4/28/86
Drafted: 1st round, 2007, Clemson
2008 Club: Hickory Crawdads (High A)
Height/Weight: 6-1/200
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: Moskos was one of the top left handed college talents in the country that’s money as a closer. However, there’s so much more to Moskos that just that. There is the potential for more if he gets drafted in the right organization. Because of the financial concerns that came with the Boras clients, the Pirates shied away from the mass of Boras arms available and instead took Moskos, who was a massive overdraft.
The Good: Moskos has good velocity, throwing in the low 90’s while working up as high as the mid 90’s as a closer. His fastball has great movement and he’s got a nice delivery. He compliments this fastball with a filthy slider. He’s also working on a changeup as a third pitch and many feel that he could be an excellent starter.
The Bad: The changeup is still a work in progress, so there’s no guarantee that he can get it up to a major league level pitch. Plus, at his size, with a max effort delivery, Moskos is probably best-suited for the bullpen long-term.
Projection: Low if he’s a closer. He could probably setup in September, similar to what Andrew Miller did. As a starter, I would say he’s going some average projection left.
What He Can Be: A dominant closer
2008 Course Of Action: Moskos has been told by the Pirates that he will remain as a reliever and he could very well enter the season as the Pirates' closer if they choose to go that route. It’s more likely, however, that he’ll begin the season in Hickory.
Hope you enjoyed it. If you want to see anyone in particular, leave a comment or send me a line at the email of FoxMail.
A return to school and an increased workload at work due to sick leave has cut into my blogging time. Not cool.
Ah well, time for a collective group of thoughts about baseball.
Scott Rolen and Troy Glaus Traded For Each Other
Kinda a odd deal, considering that both are high priced deals with huge landmines attached to them (Health) but overall the deal does work to the favor of each team in one way or another.
WIth Rolen, the Blue Jays gain a Gold Glove defender at third base, which would help compensate for the lead glove of David Eckstein, at the cost of some offense. However, Eckstein is better than the shuffle at short the Jays had and there is the off chance that Rolen can prove himself to be semi-adequate with the bat. More than anything, however, the Jays need some type of return from Vernon Wells, who disappointed last season after signing for superstar money with the Jays.
In Glaus, the Cardinals get a big bat that is needed to help bolster the offense, which is, to be frank, pathetic outside of Pujols. More than anything, however, the Cardinals needed to diffuse the situation between Tony LaRussa and Rolen, which was made all but irreparable after LaRussa poured gas on that particular fire this off-season. The signing of Cesar Izturis does help improve the defense enough where the Cardinals can suffer through Glaus' hands of stone, and the move to natural grass and away from Toronto's turf should prove to be beneficial in the long run for Glaus.
All in all, it's a good gamble for both sides, but more importantly, it clears up some potential locker room disaster that would have exploded during the season had either player remained with their former teams.
Grade For Both Sides: B
Thoughts On The Kotsay Trade
I was going to rant about how the Braves should have just offered Andruw Jones arbitration, keeping him around for one more year, as he would have accepted, and keeping the offense together.
Instead, they pull this trade.
To be honest, I gotta give Billy Beane all the credit in the world on this one, as I think Kotsay is done. He's not the defender he once was and in terms of offense, he's not going to give you much in return. In all honesty, the Braves would have been better off just giving the job to Josh Anderson for the season and just gone with it from there. At least he's mostly paid for.
Oh wait. Oakland got two prospects, one of which, Joey Devine, the Braves' first round pick from two years ago, will likely help out Oakland in the bullpen this season. And they also got Jamie RIchmond, a right hander that could be a fifth starter. That's quite a haul for a broken player.
Anyhow, that's my take on that.
Oakland Grade - B
Atlanta Grade - D
Lost A Bet
To my friend, who's an Astros fan, on the Cowboy Game on Sunday.
So, expect the first (and only) Astros Report sometime this week.
According to Evan Grant, Jason Jennings may be a Ranger in the relatively near future.
My take on that?
I figured that the Rangers would be signing a pitcher soon, as Texas has never been one to rely on a lot of youth in the rotation as far as unproven pitchers are concerned (and, despite their service time, McCarthy and Gabbard are still relatively unproven). With Edinson Volquez now a Red, Texas was almost certain to look for a high upside vet to take over the three or four spot, depending on who it was.
The question is, is Jennings that?
Jennings was the youngest of the broken pitchers category, having undergone surgery to fix a torn flexor tendon and was said to be ready for Spring Training. However, Jennings doesn’t have the greatest control, seeing his K to Walk Ratio over the past few years and he doesn’t have a legitimate out pitch. He was remarkably durable, however, and does do a good job of inducing groundballs. Provided that Young and Kinsler are on their toes when he pitches, he could be effective. He also has experience pitching in a worse pitcher’s park than Texas in Colorado.
And, if the Rangers are out of it and Jennings is effective, he could be flipped for a young player ready to help the Rangers, perhaps an outfielder or a third baseman (as Chris Davis is inevitably going to move to first, in spite of the Rangers possibly looking to move him to right field.)
The only real question is whether or not Jennings can make it in the AL. The lineups are deeper and he doesn’t have the benefit of cruising through the lower third of the lineup, which is always a problem for NL Pitchers. Nonetheless, it’s a low risk move that could pay dividends.
Catching Situation Sorting Itself Out...In A Way
It looks like the Rangers are planning on keeping Gerald Laird, at least until midseason or until the end Spring Training should someone need a starter for the simple reason that they feel his value is at a low. It also looks like, with the recent signing of Adam Melhuse to a minor league deal with a spring training invite, that the Rangers are planning on sending Jarrod Saltalamacchia down to Oklahoma to start the season, with the intent of flipping Laird at the deadline and calling Salty back then.
In a way, it might be for the best, considering that Atlanta may have rushed Salty up to the minors and Texas kept him up here to fill in the hole left at first by Teixiera leaving town. However, I thought that Laird would have had a lot more value around the league. The two spots I thought might have worked out were:
Boston – Laird could have backed up Jason Varitek before being asked to take on starting catching duties. And Texas could have netted Coco Crisp. That was the idea that was going on until Boston reversed course and demanded Eric Hurley, Luis Mendoza and C.J. Wilson back in return.
Mets – Here was another spot that I felt would work, as Laird would have been a cheap option for Minaya, and return could have netted Texas Lastings Milledge. Instead, Milledge was sent to Washington for Brian Schneider. Weirdness.
Other Transactions
Jamey Wright is close to signing a Minor League deal with a spring training invite with Texas, bringing him back to the team. Wright was mediocre as a starter, but was solid as a reliever, though his amount of walks worries me. Still, Wright is a good guy to have in the swingman role, though a cheaper option would be to use Kameron Loe in that role, which would be a cheaper decision to use.
Another thing, the signing of Eddie Guardado (and have been for the last month, apparently), but here’s the problem. Guardado is likely going to sign a major league deal, meaning another move must be made on the 40 Man roster, which recently saw the departure of Bill White to make room for Kazuo Fukumori. My guess is that the next to go is Nelson Cruz, followed then by either Jason Botts or Travis Metcalf.
TIme when I try to forecast who will get into the Hall of Fame.
And every year, I've been wrong except for last year, when no brainers Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken got in (I whiffed on Gossage twice already.)
No matter.
Here's this year's edition.
Cooperstown Locks
Rich "Goose" Gossage – This is the year Goose gets in. He got close last season, even with Ripkin and Gwynn on the ballot and will almost certainly make the hall of fame, barring any sort of mental lapse amongst the voters. There is no reason why it should have taken this long, but as I have said, I believe that Gossage’s years as a setup man may have hurt his case for the Hall of Fame.
Jim Rice – There’s been a lot of debate recently as to whether or not Rice truly is Hall of Fame worthy. Rice does have some good career averages, and he’s got 382 HR’s, though that isn’t good enough for a man with the reputation for a power hitter. His numbers were partially inflated by Fenway, but he did net a MVP award in 1978. He does get bonus points for being a slugger in a Pitcher’s Era, however and overall, with his support in Boston and much of the Eastern Seaboard, I say he gets in this year. I don’t agree with it, however.
Dark Horses
Bert Blyleven – A great pitcher, ranks fifth all time in strikeouts (3701), nine all time in shutouts, and 13th all time in innings. His career record is great (287-250) his ERA is solid (3.31) and has a career ERA of 2.47 in the post season. If he had better run support, he’d easily have over 300 wins. He should have been in a long time ago, but for some reason, voters are reluctant to admit him in, yet they are upset over why a lesser pitcher, Jack Morris, whom Blyleven laps in every category and is even better in the post-season than Morris, is not in. There’s been a rise of support for Blyleven. Unfortunately, it won’t be enough.
Tim Raines – Raines merits induction, as he was one of the best Leadoff Men in baseball for much of his career. He hit .294 lifetime, tallied 2605 hits, has a career on base percentage of .385, and scored 1571 times. People crack on his stolen bases, saying that he was afraid to drop his stolen base percentage when in reality, Raines stole bases only when necessary, not just to pad stats. He also walked more than he struck out. However, Raines won’t get his due, as people will again feel he wasn’t as good as Henderson, his rival as far as leadoff men are concerned, plus his cocaine use. Raines may have lasted even longer in baseball if he hadn’t played much of his career on the hard Astroturf in Montreal. I feel she should get in. The voters are divided so far.
Screwed
Lee Smith – A good closer, is number two on the All-Time Saves List (478), and truckload of innings logged in. His career ERA is good (3.03) and he was usually consistent. However, what kills Smith is that most people see him as a compiler and is regarded by many to be consistent, but not dominant. The fact that he only played on two playoff teams and was 0-2 with an 8.44 ERA in the postseason doesn’t help him much. Still, accumulating 478 saves is amazing (just ask Trevor Hoffman), but unfortunately, it’s looking more and more like Smith will be at the mercy of the Veteran’s committee and won’t be elected by the BBWAA.
Tommy John – Almost as good as Blyleven, in terms of Wins (288-231) and ERA (3.34), John would have been a lock if he had just won 300 wins. However, people don’t realize that had it not been for the procedure that now bears his name, he wouldn’t even be close to his numbers. John was a great pitcher for some time. Why he’s not in is beyond me.
Dave Concepcion – The last member of the Big Red Machine not in the Hall (not counting Pete Rose), Concepcion was probably one of the best shortstops of his time. Many remember him for his glove work, but his career averages (.267/.322/.357) and his 2326 hits aren’t enough to get him in. It’s possible that many could point to Ozzie Smith as a possible induction into the Hall of Fame from Concepcion, but unfortunately, I don’t think he’ll get in, leaving him as a option for the veteran’s committee.
Andre Dawson – Blessed with a long, steady career that lasted 21 seasons, Dawson tallied 438 homers, 2774 hits, 314 steals, and was the 1987 NL MVP. Dawson was a great defender at both right and centerfield and hit with good power. He didn’t walk much, which is why he’s got a #### OBP, but he does have some favorable stats to some Hall of Famers already in. He was also one of the classiest men to play the game, another reason why I like him, though that’s beside the point. But unfortunately, he's seen as a complier, and most likely won't be allowed in anytime soon, which sucks for him.
Alan Trammell – Trammell totaled 2,365 hits, 185 homers, 412 doubles, 236 steals and a World Series MVP to his name. Those are solid stats and should be Hall of Fame worthy when you consider that Trammell played in an era when shortstops were expected to defend, not him. However, shortly after Trammell retired, the rise of offensive shortstops, such as Ripken, Jeter, Garciaparra, Rodriguez and others have made his numbers look quite pedestrian when compared to how they will finish. Because of that, Trammell isn’t getting in, even though he probably should.
Harold Baines – Seemingly ageless, as he played for over 20 seasons, Baines is probably regarded as one of the best hitters in White Sox history. As a whole, he was a very good hitter for a very long time, with a career .289 Batting Average and totals of 2,866 hits and 384 home runs. He played on six postseason teams but never won a ring. Not at all shabby. However, Baines was a terrible defender and never had a monster season. He also never really took walks either, meaning he’s out.
The Hall of Very Good
Dave Parker – The Cobra has a lot of good credentials. He’s got 2712 hits, led the league three times in scoring, is in the top 30 of all time in doubles and was the 1978 NL MVP, three Gold Gloves. He also won two batting titles. Those are good numbers, but not great ones, and Parker’s cocaine use has turned off several of the more self righteous voters, which means Parker is likely going in that class of Very Good, but not Hall Worthy players.
Jack Morris – Morris is a somewhat lesser version of Tommy John. He has pitched well in the postseason, and averaged at least 14 wins per season. However, Morris has an ERA of 3.90 and going through some of his career numbers, many of his wins are the result of good run support and a strong defensive unit. I don’t think he should be allowed in, even though many of the old school media are pushing hard for him to go in. He’d easily be the worst Hall of Fame pitcher ever elected.
Mark McGwire – 500 Home Runs used to guarantee you admission into the hall of fame, but times have changed and McGwire has been made the posterboy of the era. It’s not fair, but unfortunately, it happens. He won’t get in, but will likely hang around the ballot. He could get in during his final year of eligibility.
Don Mattingly – One of the most popular Yankees in history, a nine-time Gold Glover, a six time All-Star, and the 1985 MVP. A good man and a great leader, who stuck with the Yankees through the lean years and retired just before all the fun started. Early in his career, Mattingly seemed like a lock, but lingering back problems would eventually claim his career. Again, as with another 80’s era first baseman, Will Clark, Mattingly had good career averages (.307-.358-.471), but his overall numbers (222 HR’s, 2153 Hits) aren’t enough to get him in, though he’ll be immortalized in Legends Park sooner or later. To put it bluntly, Yankee fans, let it go. Unfortunately, he’ll hang around for the next few years, making this a perennial comment.
Dale Murphy – Murphy has two MVP awards and 398 homers. But other than that, he's not Hall Worthy.
Chuck Finley – Finely made quite a few All-Star teams based on raw win totals alone, but his control was average and his ERA doesn’t fairly show that he could be god-awful a great deal. He did have a reputation as an innings eater, but other than that, what else can you say except that he’s a slightly above average pitcher who likely would be vastly overpaid if he played today and isn’t worthy of Hall of Fame consideration.
Robb Nen – A former Ranger Draft Pick, Nen was traded to Florida for Cris Carpenter (the bad one) and became one of the better closers in baseball, finishing his career with 314 saves, a 45-42 record, a career 2.98 ERA and a WHIP of 1.213. However, that’s not hall worthy, meaning Nen is out.
No Chance In Hell
Chuck Knoblauch – Knoblauch certainly looked like a Hall of Fame caliber player back when he was in Minnesota. However, a neurosis that affected his glovework and eventually his hitting ended his career. Many felt that the pressure of playing in New York finally got to him. However, the fact is that what’s done is done and in the end, Knoblauch doesn’t deserve to be bronzed in Cooperstown. His mention in the Mitchell Report will also mean he falls off the ballot.
Todd Stottlemyre–An okay pitcher for the most part, I remember him mostly from his brief time with the Texas Rangers. He shouldn’t be on here. Who screens these things?
Rod Beck –Sorry, I know Beck is very much beloved by many fans, but realistically, he had a 7 year run in which he was good, after which he flamed out spectacularly. This may be his first and only time you’ll see him on the ballot.
David Justice – Justice is going to be one and done on the ballot. He was good for a long time, but was never great. His numbers (1571 Hits, 305 HR, .279 Career BA) just aren’t special enough, though he’ll likely get credit for all of his playoff experience. But, to be quite honest, he just doesn’t belong on the ballot.
Travis Fryman – Fryman played for a long time, both in Detroit and in Cleveland, and was an All-Star five times, but for the most part he was just a solid contributor and nothing more.
Brady Anderson – Another solid contributor, nothing more, Anderson shouldn’t be on the ballot.
Shawon Dunston – Dunston had a decent start to his career, but injuries and ineffectiveness turned him into a very good bench player for the most part. He was also named as one of “Barry’s Guys” in the book Love Me, Hate Me, who defended Eric Davis, who was being berated by Bonds and the time, only to shut him up by grabbing Davis’ World Series ring and asking him “Have one of these?”
The Rangers have dealt him and Danny Ray Herrera right now to the Cincinatti Reds for Josh Hamilton, who I assume will likely be the starting centerfielder and likely is going to make Nelson Cruz expendable.
I'm kinda wishy washy on the deal.
One, Volquez battled back to prove to be a viable starting pitcher. I would have loved to have seen him get the chance here. After all, what else is there left to lose? Player development? A high draft pick? And what is the point of busting a nut trying to salvage Volquez only to deal him away? I don't get it.
Two, I'm not sure on Hamilton, even though he's a physical freak of nature and could be a star. But the injury issues (thanks to drug abuse, his immune system is kinda ####ked) as well as his drug issues. If he has a mentor, likely C.J. Wilson or Michael Young, he could be kept on the straight and narrow, but it's a concern.
If Volquez does well, the Rangers will look like fools unless Hamilton really does well, which isn't outside of the realm of possibility. However, this doesn't help much for the present, with the Rangers' best starting pitching options years away and Eric Hurley not ready.
We'll see what happens. Hopefully, A.J. the Pirate is ready to step in.
On a side note, this means that out of the once vaunted DVD trio (John Danks, Edinson Volquez, Thomas Diamond) only Diamond remains in the organization, with Danks in the White Sox system and Volquez now a Red.
Incredible. Anyhow, I'll miss Volquezo and his little Geri-Curl.
I need a drink...
Eddie Guardado Nearly A Ranger
Apparently, the Rangers are close to getting Eddie Guardado to come, though whether or not it's a major league deal or a minor league deal with a spring training invite has yet to be determined.
I'm okay with it, but only if he's not a closer option. C.J. Wilson should be the closer next year, as he's more than earned the job with his performance this year. Joaquin Benoit also deserves a shot if the Rangers determine Wilson is more valuable in relief than as a closer. Guardado should merely be seen as a potential lefty middle reliever that could help bridge the gap to Wilson, not be the end of the Bridge itself.
Pouring out some scotch right now...
Someone On The 40 Is Going Bu-Bye!!!
Hamilton's recent trade doesn't solve the problem of the Rangers' 40 Man Roster, which is actually at 41, due to Kazuo Fukumori's deal not being official yet.
Which means someone is getting dropped.
I alluded earlier to Nelson Cruz likely being DFA'd to make room for Hamilton, as that's too many outfielders in the mix, and should he pass through waivers, he'll likely be offered a minor league deal with a Spring Training Invite.
But could other people be going elsewhere?
As of right now, I've identified three people that could be at risk.
Bill White (LHP) - White doesn't have great stuff and probably wouldn't be at risk at being claimed. He's not anyone I would have protected anyway. If he is claimed, the odd's on favorite would be the Astros.
Jason Botts (LF/DH) - Botts has gotten his chance to prove he can hit and hasn't really run with it. This season is really his last shot to prove that he can be a major leaguer, otherwise he's done for.
Nelson Cruz (RF) - See above.
Of the three, Cruz is likely history and White is next in line. But Botts has very little leverage left and is running out of chances. I hope he's able to succeed because this time, there is no minor league safety net to bail him out.
Rangers Top 40 will be posted next week after Christmas.
My Niece is staying over the night with me, so we're up right now. She's playing with her toy frog (more like eating it, actually) as we speak.
So, let's take a look at some Non-Tender Musings
Ben Broussard Now A Ranger
All it really cost the Rangers was Tim "Tug" Hulett Jr., who was eligible for the Rule 5 Draft and wasn't taken. He may make a career as a utility guy, he may not. We'll see.
As for Broussard, right now I'm penciling him in as the starting first baseman. That leaves a likely lineup of the following:
KInsler (2B)
Cat (LF)
Young (SS)
Blalock (3B)
Bradley (DH)
Broussard (1B)
Salty (C)
Murphy (RF)
Byrd (CF)
It's a slightly stronger lineup than before, but it's not going to strike the fear of god in you.
What this does raise questions about is what the future will be for Shelton, Botts and Cruz. If this is the lineup, than something is going to happen soon to get rid of one of these guys. I have a feeling that Cruz may not survive the off-season. Botts could see everyday playing time in Left Field and at DH to give Bradley a break, while Murphy and Byrd could be rotated as needed. Which means that Cruz is likely getting the boot.
God damn it, this team needs better outfield options. This is getting #### ridiculous.
Bye Bye Aki
Akinori Otsuka was non-tendered, bringing the last remnant of the Chris Young/Adrian Gonzalez trade to an end.
Aki was hurt, but there was some progress in his rehab. However, I wonder how long he would have been able to have pitched for the full season. Would he have been ready in time for the season? I'm not sure.
And does any of this have to do with the fact that he recommended San Diego over Texas to Kosuke Fukudome?
If so, that's petty. But I'm taking the high road and choosing injury.
So long Aki. We hardly knew ye.
Other Non-Tenders To Look At
Mark Prior (RHP - Former Cub) - Eh, what the hell. Gabbard's got options left and if Prior can bounce back a bit, he could be something worthwhile. And could even be worth a draft pick or two if he books.
Kiki Calero (RHP - Former A) - Could be a nice, buy low opportunity for the pen.
Dallas McPherson (3B - Former Angel) - Maybe, still has some potential. Is also made out of glass.
Emil Brown (LF - Royals) - Could form a decent platoon with Cat.
Okay, someone's hungry. Time to warm up a bottle...
Well apparently, the Rangers have signed Milton Bradley to a one year, $5 million contract, with some incentives. The deal is pending a physical, and because the Padres declined to offer him arbitration, the Rangers don’t cede a pick to the Padres.
The deal is a risk, both because Bradley is both injury prone and batshit crazy, but Bradley, to be honest, is actually now the best outfielder on the squad and will likely slide over to centerfield once the leg heals up.
Are you gambling that Wash, who Bradley wanted to reunite with, and whom is a Washington favorite, can keep him in line? Yes. Could it work? We’ll see. Bradley will likely miss time in the beginning of the season and will stay at DH until June or so.
What will this do to Jason Botts?
What we’ll likely see is a rotation of Botts, Cat, and Shelton at Left Field and Third Base until Bradley is completely healthy. It’s a workable compromise and will keep everyone healthy until things are sorted out.
Will the Rangers do any other improvements to the outfield? That remains to be seen. Bradley isn’t blocking anyone long term and his salary isn’t prohibitive. With Fukudome now a Cub, the only real free agent option available is off the table. That means that the Rangers will likely have to look at the non-tender market later today or the trade market. More on that in a bit…
Going To War With The Rotation You Have
The meme in Texas is that the Rangers need pitching.
My answer to that?
Where is it?
I’ve checked the free agent market. Unless you’re willing to roll the dice on Bartolo Colon or Freddy Garcia, there is no potential Number One or Two starters. When the best options are Kyle Lohse and Carlos Silva, back of the rotation dudes at best, that goes to show you that the market is just awful.
Now, if you want to do some trading on the market, you could find some pitchers that could be had for prospects, especially those on teams that may be looking to rebuild.
The Rangers have the ammunition to go after Johan Santana, and Tom Hicks has the funds to do it.
They could also go after Dan Haren, though I think they prefer not to trade within the division.
However, all of these deals come with a price. You lose valuable young players who can keep you competitive while spending little in these trades. You also lack that valuable pipeline of young talent to replace aging players. Michael Young won’t last forever and will likely be the Rangers’ third baseman by 2011, by which time either Elvis Andrus or Marcus Lemon will be taking over the position. Also, who will replace Padilla, who will book after 2009, and Kevin Millwood, who will book after 2010? Are you going to want to have to turn to the Jamey Wright’s and Carlos Silva’s to give you innings?
This season is a lost cause anyway, but it will serve as a way to give the kids innings while keeping the team cost effective FOR NOW. The Rangers are hoarding their dollars for the next superstar that may hit the market, by which time, there will be enough of a team for that future star to push the Rangers over the top.
Plus, the Rangers may have their own homegrown rotation sooner than you think.
Eric Hurley is nearly ready. So is Matt Harrison. The Rangers have a plethora of young arms in the lower minors, with some of them beginning to rise to the top.
Give things time. Frivolously throwing money away on mediocre starters is a poor way to build a ball club.
Ask the Cubs.
Off season Deals That I Thank God Didn’t Work Out
Mark Mulder (2006) – This was a buy low opportunity, but oh man was this bullet one I’m glad misfired. Mulder looks toast right now, something that no one thought back in the day, when he was arguably the best of the Big Three.
Barry Zito (2006) – This was a deal I actually campgained hard for, but am glad it didn't work out. Zito has been an out and out disaster for San Fran. He eats innings and...doesn't do much else.
Matt Morris (2005) – The Rangers actually went pretty hard after Morris, who was coming off of a very good year with the Cardinals and had long since had a reputation for being a good clubhouse guy and a outdated rep for being a great starting pitcher. Two years later and this deal is easily one of the biggest busts we’ve seen this decade.
Carlos Delgado (2004) – Yes, the Rangers did try to make a run at Delgado, with the idea of making him the starting first baseman and Mark Teixiera the everyday left fielder. Fortunately, he signed with Florida, who blew Texas’ offer away, and then would trade him after a single season.
Rangers Close To Signing Reliever
The Rangers are close to signing Japanese Reliever Kazo Fukumori to a two year deal, whcih would add another veteren reliever to the pen at a cheap price. Fukumori was injured in Japan last year, but could pay big dividends if he's ready.
More Trade Speculation
Noah Lowry (RHP – Giants) – On paper, this looks like a decent acquisition, as any time you can add a young starter is a good deal. Look closer, however, and I’d stay clear away from Lowry. His control is rather bad, he’s not much of an innings eater and he’s always been much more mortal away from A####mp;T Park. I heard one rumor stating that trading Ian Kinsler for him would get it done. I say nay.
Andre Ethier (RF – Dodgers) – Etheir is the odd man out in Los Angeles with Pierre moving to left field, Kemp likely in right and Jones in center and is reportedly being targeted by the Rangers. I’d totally do this if the Dodgers were willing, but a trade package might be hard to come up with. The Dodgers would likely ask for Eric Hurley or Edinson Volquez, with the Rangers offering Armando Galaragga and a few other prospects in return. It just remains to be seen if a deal can be reached that will be amicable to all parties.
Austin Kearns (RF – Nationals) – Kearns looks like he’s due for a bounce back season and playing in RFK probably didn’t help his numbers much. He’s signed to a very affordable long term deal and with the Nationals carrying four outfielders (five if they move Dmitri Young), Kearns is the odd man out. I’d be okay with signing him, especially since Kearns can reasonably play center, it’s just that the Nationals ask for the sun, moon, and stars for their players.
Matt Murton (OF – Cubs) – Murton hasn’t been given a fair shake by the Cubs to prove himself, as they’ve preferred to go after sexier names in the free agent market.
Mark DeRosa (2B – Cubs) – If the Cubs do acquire another player, I’d strongly ask them for Rosie if they won’t trade Murton. Rosie would have a chance to play everyday in Texas, likely in Right Field.
The Rangers have acquired Chris Shelton from the Tigers, in exchange for Fast Freddy Guzman.
Shelton likely will figure into the first base/dh equation, though I think he'll more than likely be the Opening Day first baseman. It makes no sense to sign Sean Casey for $3 million when you can instead pay Shelton more or less the major league minimum for better production.
All in all, it's a solid pickup, and Shelton will be much more useful than whatever Guzman would have provided.
Rule 5 Shennanigans
I'm a little disappointed that Texas didn't participate in the Major League Phase of the Rule 5 draft, especially considering that Brian Barton was there to be had. On the bright side, the Rangers didn't lose anyone, so there's some good news. Texas was active in the minor league phases of the draft, nabbing several pitchers
Overall, here's who Texas acquired:
Levi Romero (RHP) - Not a damn thing can be found right now.
Dustin Majewski (OF) - A former Longhorn and I believe one of Oakland's moneyball draft guys, Majewski likely is just organizational filler at this point.
Clayton Hamilton (RHP) - Hamilton has good size and could be a solid bullpen arm in the future. A lot of his stats from this past year must be taken with a grain of salt, as he was pitching for most of the year with a broken rib, thanks to a misdiagnosis from the Pirates.
Jaime Trejo (3B) - Potential backup.
Francisco Cordova.(RHP) - Ick. Next...
Quick Hits
Kevin Mench is likely going to be non-tendered by the Brewers. If the Rangers are interested, they could try and bring back him back. Mench still has fans here and for the most part would be happy to come back, but salary concerns may get in the way. Another thing, who would he replace on the 40?
Texas actually was in on the Andruw Jones deal, but was thwarted when Scott Boras gave Texas the runaround. Specifically, he told Texas that it would take a longer term deal, seeing as how Jones would be switching leagues and all. You remember, that kind of ####
Texas has a one year contract offer with a club option out to LaTroy Hawkins, who is still looking for a two year deal from the Rockies. Hopefully, something can get resolved soon, though I would prefer to go itnernal on the pen. Usually, that ends up being a lot more cost effective and allows you to protect yourself in terms of being screwed over in terms of long term deals.
Eric Gagné is still out there and apparently wouldn't mind coming back to Texas. I'd do it, as he was a lot of fun to watch and he has his fans here. He would also be flipped again at the deadline for more prospects, which is always nice. Knowing the Rangers' luck, Boras will push for a full no-trade clause this time.
The acqustion of Andruw Jones means that Andre Ethier and potentially Juan Pierre are available. Ethier I'm all about, as I think he'd be an above average option in left field. Pierre is interesting, but the Dodgers would have to eat a lot of the salary for me to consider it. Pierre isn't a great outfielder and is one of the most overrated players in the sport.
Apparently, the Rangers are hot and heavy after...Mark Prior? Okay, I know that when Prior is healthy, he can easily be one of the best pitchers in baseball. The problem is, when was the last time we could say that?
There are some other trade options I'd be looking at, with the Astros being one of the teams I'd look at. The Rangers need a legitiamate utilityman and Chris Burke is there for the taking. He's a better option that Ramon Vasquez and can play any position except for catcher. I'd ask if they'd be interested in a straight up swap for Scott Feldman.
And, on a side note, the Rangers are debating about moving Chris Davis to right field, where his bat would not only be a good fit, but he has a strong enough arm to handle the change. My only question about that is whether or not Davis is athletic enough to handle right field.
I'm a long time Texas Rangers fan who has come to love baseball as a whole. I recently began this blog as a way for me to showcase my opinions, provide some analysis, and hopefully entertain those who happen to stumble upon my little soapbox online. I'll toss in an NFL, College, or NBA nugget every now and then. Enjoy the posts everyone, and yes, getting a little love in a Deadspin post was probably the highlight of the year, blogwise.
Do You Have Comment You Don't Want All To See? Just Want To Talk Baseball? Email Me at morisatos_blo g AT yahoo.com. Email's edited to keep away the Spam.
