The Balance of Power just shifted in the American League West thans to the Dan Haren Trade.
First, The Arizona Side of the trade. Arizona gets a solid Number Two starter and sends several blocked prospects to Oakland in exchange for roster certainty. None of the players really had a chance of cracking Arizona's roster, save Chris Carter, and for the Diamondbacks, it's about winning now and worrying about the farm depth emptying out later.
Arizona's new lineup is likely the following:
Brandon Webb (RHP)
Dan Haren (RHP)
Doug Davis (LHP)
Micah Owings (RHP)
Randy Johnson (LHP)
That's a much strong rotation, much better than last years.
Overall, this trade works for them.
As for Oakland, it's a symbol that Billy Beane has conceded the season and is beginning to rebuild. As seen from my farm system previews, Beane doesn't have a ton of high ceiling talent in his minor league system and much of the talent that is close to being drawn upon is already up.
And Beane has shown that he is willing to conduct a full scale rebuild sooner rather than later and likely saw that it was time to do so.
So, let's take a look at each of the players recieved:
Chris Carter (1B) - A pure masher, Carter has plenty of upside. He's not the greatest defender, but he's passable enough. Overall, he's a middle of the order power threat waiting to happen.
Aaron Cunningham (OF) - Stolen from the White Sox in the Danny Richar move, Cunningham has a high upside, as he hits the ball to all fields and has some speed and power. Many compare him to former A's outfielder Eric Byrnes. I say he's more like a young Steve Finley.
Carlos Gonzalez (RF) - Gonzalez is another young outfielder that can mash, given the opportunity. He could start in Oakland right now, pushing Swisher to center and Kotsay out the door if Oakland is willing to take pennies on the dollar.
Brett Anderson (LHP) - A decent left hander with okay stuff, he's more of a Number Four starter at best, though he does have innings eater potential. He'll do well in that ballpark than he ever would have in Arizona.
Gregg Smith and Dana Eveland - Decent arms, but more likely to wind up as relief prospects than anything else.
Overall, it's a trade of quantity over quality. The A's did get a pair of high upside players in Cunningham and Carter, but I wonder if they shouldn't have pushed the Diamondbacks for Matt Scherzer, a pitcher better than Anderson, Smith and Evaland and well worth waiting for.
It's a good trade, as it gives the A's options to play with in the outfield and a future power threat in Carter. I'm just wondering if it was enough to justify the Haren trade. Oakland needs pitching and unless they're planning on using high draft picks due to low finishes on near ready college pitching, they'll be hurting for quite some time.
This trade also officially gives the divisional race solely to the Mariners and Angels. With Oakland and Texas now entering full scale rebuilds (with Texas slightly ahead due to two good drafts and a couple of smart trades), it should be interesting watching the Mariners and Angels slug it out with each other.
If that's the case, then while my team is out of contention, I'll be rooting for Seattle.
The Red Sox-Yankees rivalry is one of the best in sports. I can’t name any one better. However, the rivalry gets out of hand on a yearly basis, getting to the point it gets overexposed and overrated as hell. This extends to the farm systems as well, from Pawtucket and Scranton to the GCL Red Sox and Yankees.
For the longest time, this part of the rivalry was one-sided, as the Yankees suffered extended periods of drought on the farm, with few players coming up and most of them being huge busts that have been floated from organization to organization. This may have been most evident in 2004, when the Yankees found themselves unable to trade for Randy Johnson, since they didn’t have the prospects necessary to deal. However, Cashman saw the need for young pitching and began to aggressively target high ceiling youngsters in the draft. The result has been a slew of talent in the pitching categories of the minor leagues, most of which will be profiled here.
Yankees Top 15
1 – Joba Chamberlain (RHP)
DOB: 9/23/85
Drafted: 1st Round, 2006, University of Nebraska
2008 Club: New York Yankees (MLB)
Height/Weight: 6-2/230
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Projected as a top pick early in the college season, injury issues dropped him to the supplemental first round. He's already looking like a draft-day steal. Chamberlain blew away scouts in the Hawaiian Winter League, and his 2007 season has elevated him to the title of Best Pitching Prospect In The System. Chamberlain then proceeded to rock the big apple after he was called up to help setup Mariano Rivera, a role in which he was dynamite, though the Yankees still feel that he’s a starter long term.
The Good: Chamberlain has an electric arm and blows people away with a mid 90's fastball that is complimented with a plus slider. His command and control are excellent and when he's on, he's nearly unbeatable. He also has at least two usable pitches, including a decent changeup.
The Bads: Chamberlain has had problems with his weight and there are the questions about whether or not he's durable enough to be a starting pitcher.
Projection: Medium. Chamberlain has shown what he's capable of when he's healthy.
What He Can Be: An Ace Quality Starter If He Stays Healthy
2008 Course Of Action: Chamberlain is heading with the Big League Club to New York, where he'll be the Number Three Starter behind Wang and Hughes, though he could rocket up the rotaiton if he does what he did in the rotaiton as a starter.
2 – Philip Hughes (RHP)
DOB: 4/24/86
Drafted: 1st Round, 2004, California High School
2008 Club: New York Yankees (MLB)
Height/Weight: 6-5/220
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Hughes had a rocky start to his Triple A season and was told that he wouldn’t be rushed to the majors. Needless to say, that only lasted about a month, after which Hughes arrived, pitched decently while also getting hurt. Thankfully for my prospect list, he came in just under my 75-inning limit for pitchers, meaning he’s still eligible under my list.
The Good: Hughes is very much near what one would want as far as a starter. He’s got a good fastball that sits in the low 90’s that can touch 96 and his curveball is a plus pitch, giving him a pair of solid weapons. He’s got an average changeup, but it’s usable and it has good fade and deception. His mechanics are nearly flawless and his command is exceptional.
The Bad: Hughes has had health issues for almost every year of his pro career save last year, and still needs to prove that he can carry a full workload. Plus, an injured hamstring may have hurt Hughes’ performance, as he wasn’t able to spot his stuff well out of fear of aggravating the injury.
Projection: Low. It’s hard to treat health issues, and it’s hard to say right now if Hughes’ leg issues will be something he’ll always deal with or not. Needless to say, I value Hughes a lot lower than Chamberlain and Buchholz, mostly because Hughes just doesn’t wow me as much as other prospects.
What He Can Be: A Number Two Starter
2008 Course OF Action: Hughes will keep his job in the rotation for now. With the Yankees committed to going younger, he’ll have all year to establish himself as a potential sidekick to Chien Ming Wang.
3 – Dellin Betances (RHP)
DOB: 5/23/88
Drafted: 8th round, 2006, New York High School
2008 Club:Staten Island Yankees (Short Season)
Height/Weight: 6-8/215
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: The Yankees valued Betances' talent enough that they paid him a bonus of $1million to sign, a feat that was thought to be difficult because most assumed that Betances would be college bound. Since then, he's been a bright spot for the Bombers, who have several talented young pitchers, but none with the upside of Betances, who is looking like he'll be a monster talent in a few years.
The Good: Betances' cuts an imposing figure on the mound, but his stuff is what makes scouts swoon. His fastball sits in the mid 90's while touching 98. His changeup and curveball both have plus potential and his command and control are pretty good.
The Bad: Betances is still quite raw, hence he's going to need to absolutely get his command down before he's to advance. He's also got a complex delivery that needs to be worked on, as he's got a lot of moving parts. He was also shut down for elbow soreness part of last year, making some wonder a bit about his long term health.
Projection: Very High. Betances has more upside than any pitcher in the system, including Chamberlain. The Yankees are bringing him along slowly, as they see Betances to be the Robin to Chamberlains' Batman.
What He Can Be: A Number One Starter
2008 Course Of Action: Still raw and light years away from the majors, Betances will be heading to Staten Island, where he'll be supervised by the Yankees directly and where he'll hopefully shows some advances.
4 – Jose Tabata (RF)
DOB: 8/12/1988
Signed: 2005, Venezuela
2008 Club: Tampa Bay Yankees (High A)
Height/Weight: 5-11/160
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Another Latin America bonus baby, Tabata began to make himself known after he started to hit in the lower minors as an 18 year old. The Yankees decided to rush him to High A to see what he could do. Overall, the results looked okay, but really didn’t do anything to quiet the doubts that have circulated about him.
The Good: Tabata has got one of the best bats in the Yankees’ system. His hitting skills are off the charts and he’s got excel. Plus hitting skills and a mature approach well beyond his years. With outstanding bat speed and excellent hand/eye coordination, Tabata projects through the roof offensively based on what he's already been able to do at such a young age. He's a tick-above-average runner and a solid outfielder with a good arm.
Negatives: A hand injury ended Tabata’s season early, but many are wondering if that is the real cause of his power outage. Tabata had many feeling that he would be a 30 home run threat, which was not only high, but also unrealistic. In reality, he probably will be what Ichiro was until a year ago, a leadoff corner. That’s not a bad thing, it’s just not the “Gary Sheffield” comparison that people seemed to feel he’d be.
Projection: High. It all really depends on whether or not Tabata’s power indeed grows as he gets older and fills out.
What He Can Be: A Leadoff Hitting Corner
2008 Course Of Action: Tabata will likely repeat at Tampa, where the Yankees hope he’ll be able to get back on track. Really, there’s no reason to rush him.
5 – Austin Jackson (CF)
DOB: 2/01/87
Drafted: 8th Round, 2005, Texas High School
2008 Club: Trenton Thunder (Double A)
Height/Weight: 6-1/185
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: New York had long been scouting Jackson before the draft and while many felt that Jackson would be college bound, as he had signed a letter of intent to play for Georgia Tech as a point guard. However, the Yankees drafted him and offered him a large enough bonus to sign with them. Jackson's career has since been hit or miss, as at times he looks incredible, other times he looks bad, but he appeared to have a breakout season last year.
The Good: Jackson has some excellent tools at his disposal. He has great speed, some excellent raw power, and is beginning to learn how to improve his plate discipline. He won't hit for a lot of home runs, but doubles power is possible. The Yankees’ staff has shortened his swing and opened his stance and the results have been huge.
The Bad: Jackson's arm isn't the greatest, making many wonder if he will eventually move over to left because of his lack of a strong arm. The strikeouts are worrisome, though many stress this is a result of Jackson taking too many pitches. He’s also still raw on defense and needs to improve his reads and fielding instincts to stay in center.
Projection: Average. Jackson is still developing as a player and will need time. It’s possible with work he could become a regular.
What He Can Be: An average centerfielder, maybe similar to Juan Pierre.
2008 Course Of Action: Jackson finished the year in Triple A, a puzzling move, but it’s likely he’ll wind up back in Double A to start they year.
6 – Ian Kennedy (RHP)
DOB: 12/19/84
Drafted: 1st Round, 2006, USC
2008 Club: New York Yankees (MLB)
Height/Weight: 6-0/195
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Kennedy had been on people's radars for a long time, having being drafted in the 14th round back in 2003. A subpar year, plus representation by Scott Boras resulted in Kennedy falling down to the Yankees. Kennedy since has been quite solid despite his lack of overpowering stuff and dominated Double A with the Trenton Thunder last season. He was subsequently promoted to Scranton and, after Mike Mussina imploded late in the season, Kennedy was called up to make a spot start in the rotation.
The Good: Kennedy has outstanding command and control over all of his pitches, a fastball that clocks into the low 90's, a solid curve and changeup, all of which he can throw for strikes. His delivery is pretty good and overall he rates as a solid pitcher.
The Bad: Aside from his size, Kennedy's stuff is really quite vanilla, and he has no real out pitch. He also lost some velocity in his fastball, making things look a little less rosy for his future.
Projection: Low. I've never been a big Kennedy fan and realistically, though he may arrive at the majors in a short period of time, he really doesn't have anything special about him.
What He Can Be: An Average to Above Average Starter
2008 Course Of Action: With the rotation in flux, the Yankees will look to give some of their kids a shot to make the rotation. Kennedy will likely be the favorite for the Job, and is likely going to be the Yankees' fifth starter to begin the year.
7 – Jesus Montero (C)
DOB: 11/28/1989
Signed: 2006, Venezuela
2008 Club: Staten Island Yankees (Short Season)
Height/Weight: 6-4/220
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Signed during the International Signing Period out of Venezuela for around $2 million dollars, Montero was the biggest acquisition for the Yankees during the International Signing Period. The Yankees assigned him to the Gulf Coast League, a trend that a lot more teams are doing with their younger signings, where he posted some solid numbers in limited playing time.
The Good: What sealed the deal for New York was Montero's bat, as he put on some impressive batting practice displays in workouts before signing. He's got solid raw power, even more than Giants Man-Child Angel Villalona. The Yankees are working with Montero to adjust his swing in order to further help him take advantage of his power.
The Bad: Though he is signed as a catcher, there is a lot of doubt that Montero will remain at the position. For starters, he's already a large young man and is likely to grow more. His defense and game calling abilities are extremely raw and will take time to develop, but even then it's unlikely that he'll become any more than tolerable behind the plate. He’s almost a lock to be moved to First Baseman/Designated Hitter in the future. He also needs to be taught some plate discipline, and he tends to go for the longball all the time.
Projection: Very High. It's tricky business projecting kids, especially when they are as young as Montero, due to the lack of experience and age. However, the talent is definitely there for Montero to be a solid major leaguer.
What He Can Be: A Power Threat In The Middle Of The Order
2008 Course Of Action: Depending on how the Yankees feel about his progress, he could either return to the Gulf Coast Yankees or be retained in extended and be sent to Stanton Island, where team officials in New York would be able to help gauge his progress.
8 – Tyler Clippard (RHP)
DOB: 2/14/85
Drafted: 9th round, 2003, Florida High School
2008 Club: Scranton Yankees (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 6-4/170
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Clippard is one of the more interesting prospects in that he doesn't have overwhelming stuff, but Clippard had mixed results in a early call up, but the future looks good for him. Still, because of the emergence of Ian Kennedy, Clippard’s going to have to fight to remain a Yankee.
The Good: Clippard is a tall pitcher that relies on his outstanding command and control to get hitters out. His fastball clocks in at around 88-91, but his curve is a plus pitch and and his changeup is solid.
The Bad: Clippard isn't an ace and because of his lack of a dominant fastball, he's not a sure bet to last a long time in the American League East.
Projection: Low. Clippard is pretty much a finished product.
What He Can Be: A Number 3 or 4 starter.
2008 Course Of Action: Clippard will return to Scranton to start the year, but he’ll be one of the first prospects called up if the Bombers need another arm. He’ll also be shopped covertly to see what his value is. The Yankees need positional players and Clippard in this pitching drought market would net a solid hitter.
9 – Kevin Whelan (RHP)
DOB: 1/8/84
Drafted: 4th round, 2005, Texas A&M University
2008 Club: Scranton Yankees (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 6-0/200
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Picked up in the Sheffield trade, the Yankees added what could be a long term piece of their bullpen in Whelan. A fourth-round pick out of Texas A&M in 2005, Whelan is a converted catcher who was long viewed to be the closer of the future for the Tigres, but Joel Zumaya put a stop to that. Still, the Tigers wound up regretting trading Whelan last year, especially when Zumaya went down. Meanwhile, Whelan was very good in the minors and should be a big part of the Scranton Bullpen this year.
The Good: Whelan already has two plus pitches in his fastball and splitter. The splitter is his best pitch and it clocks in as high as 89 and has heavy, downward action. His fastball sits in the 92-94 mph and touches 96.
The Bad: Whelan doesn't have a traditional breaking ball or off-speed pitch to speak of, but the splitter and fastball should be enough to offset it. What is a problem is that he still struggles at times with his command, understandable considering he is a former position player still relatively new to pitching.
Projection: Low. Whelan is rising fast and could be a factor for the Bronx real soon.
What He Can Be: A setup man, possibly a closer.
2008 Course Of Action: Rather than pay up the nose for underachieving relief help, the Yankees appear to be using internal options, a good, cheap way to build a bullpen that has paid off for several teams (Texas and San Diego being two of them.)
10 – Humberto Sanchez (RHP)
DOB: 5/28/83
Drafted: 31st round, 2001, Connors State Junior College (DNF - Tigers)
2008 Club: Trenton Thunder (Double A)
Height/Weight: 6-6/230
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Sanchez was a named banded about often in terms of trade talks until he became the crown jewel of the prospects sent back to New York in the Gary Sheffield Trade. Unfortunately, Tommy John Surgery claimed his 2007 season and Sanchez will have to work his way back into consideration for the Yankee rotation.
The Good: Scouts have long loved Sanchez's strong arm. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 97-98 when he really reaches back. He compliments it with a plus slider and also has an above average changeup that is a suitable third pitch.
The Bad: Sanchez has had a problem with durability. He has yet to throw more than 123 innings in a season due to various injuries and conditioning issues. He's had problems staying in shape, and he has trouble maintaining his explosiveness deep into games. As a result, many feel that he could be best off in the bullpen, though there is no doubt he'd bean excellent closer.
Projection: Fair. Sanchez's arm is still a great one, though the Yankees aren't willing to give up on him as a starter just yet.
What He Can Be: A Power Starting Pitcher Or A Hell Of A Closer.
2008 Course Of Action: Sanchez will remain in extended Spring Training for the first part of the year before he heads to Scranton for rehab assignments. Either way, we'll see him in New York near the end of the year.
11 – Andrew Brackman (RHP)
DOB: 12/04/85
Drafted: 1st Round, 2007, North Carolina State
2008 Club: Rehab
Height/Weight: 6-10/230
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Brackman, a two sport star at NC State, decided to concentrate on his baseball career instead and handled a full load for the first time in his college career. What wound up happening was that Brackman’s body began to break down late in the season and he was held back from two starts, both from personal and physical problems. He fell down the draft boards and wound up being picked by the Yankees, who gave him a lucrative deal that is, quite frankly, much more than Brackman deserved. Only Boras.
The Good: An imposing presence on the mound, Brackman throws both a two and four seam fastball and they clock in from 92-97, hitting 99 at times. Both have good life in the strike zone. He also throws a nasty spike curveball that he commands very well.
The Bad: Brackman will miss the year thanks to Tommy John surgery and has already begun his development clock because of his major league deal that he received. His curveball lags behind both of his other pitches and his command wasn’t great to begin with. Most importantly, he broke down under the regular workload of a college pitcher.
Projection: Surprisingly High. Because Brackman hasn’t played a whole lot of baseball, he can still develop some, especially if he can find a suitable pitch to go along with his heater and spike curveball.
What He Can Be: A Top of the Rotation Starter, Middle Of The Road More Likely.
2008 Course Of Action: Now rehabbing his arm, the Yankees will likely get him back into pitching shape for the year, after which they’ll send him to the Arizona Fall League for his pro debut.
12 – Austin Romine (C)
DOB: 11/22/88
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2007, California High School
2008 Club: Gulf Coast Yankees (Rookie)
Height/Weight: 6-1/195
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Baseball runs in Romine’s blood. His brother Andrew is Arizona State’s starting shortstop, and his dad Kevin played there. Austin had committed to the Sun Devils, but the Yankees bought him out at the last minute for an above slot bonus ($500,000), adding another intriguing prospect to the Yankee farm.
The Good: Romine has a cannon of an arm, probably the best of what was a deep catching crop. He’s also very accurate, which is why baserunners wouldn’t screw with him too much in games. His bat has a lot of promise, however. He makes hard contact consistently and has good power potential, doubles at the moment, but the long ball variety could come as he matures.
The Bad: Romine is still very raw as a catcher. Despite his cannon arm, his glovework and range are inconsistent. He’s going to need a lot of refinement to become a adequate defender. He’s also a below average runner.
Projection: High. Romine is thought to be the answer to the Yankees’ catcher of the future, as Montero is likely going to be a first baseman in the not too distant future. Though he’s a raw product, he’s got the talent to be a good catcher, or at the very least a capable stopgap.
What He Can Be: A starting catcher.
2008 Course Of Action: The Yankees sent Romine to the instructional league to work on his defense, though ultimately it’s his bat that is most important. Expect him to begin at the bottom to start his career, especially since Jesus Montero is likely headed to Staten Island.
13 – J.B. Cox (RHP)
DOB: 5/13/84
Drafted: 2nd round, 2005, University of Texas
2008 Club: Scranton Yankees (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 6-3/205
Bats/Throws: L/R
The Skinny: Huston Street's replacement did well in 2005 with the Longhorns and his performance got him drafted with the Yankees. He's posted solid numbers throughout the minors, but Tommy John Surgery and a street altercation sidelined him for all of 2007.
The Good: Cox was a highly polished college reliever when drafted, and he's been pretty solid since he joined the Yankees organization. Cox is a groundball demon that induces groundouts thanks to a 88-92 mph sinker and hard slider that get pounded into the dirt. He also works quickly and had good mechanics.
The Bad: Cox's stuff falls just short of closer material. He also lacks a real out pitch and there have been some question about his temperament thanks to an off the field altercation.
Projection: Low. Cox was almost a finished product anyway and would have been in the bigs at some point last year had it not been for TJ.
What He Can Be: A Stellar Setup Man.
2008 Course Of Action: The Yankees really could have used Cox last season when the bullpen imploded. However, thanks to TJ, Cox will likely spend early 2005 in Tampa for extended Spring Training before joining the Scranton crew for a rehab assignment. He'll be in the bigs some point this year.
14 – Jeff Marquez (RHP)
DOB: 10/8/1984
Drafted: 1st Round, 2005, Sacramento City College
2008 Club: Trenton Thunder (Double A)
Height/Weight: 6-3/175
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Drafted in the first round, Marquez has been inconsistent to intriguing as a prospect, though he’s begun to make a name for himself in the Yankees organization.
The Good: Jeff Marquez has a good sinking fastball that tops out around 92-93 mph, and he does a decent job of inducting ground balls with it. He compliments it with a plus changeup and he throws a very good curveball as well. He commands both the fastball and his changeup very well. He also is effective at changing speeds.
The Bad: Marquez's control over the curve eludes him at times. He's also had some run ins with injuries, though to his credit, he has put up solid innings in the minors. However, in spite of all that, there’s also a lot of consensus that Marquez may be nothing more than a fourth or fifth starter at best, and organizational filler at worst.
Projection: Low. Marquez is more of a fit in the National League, where he would benefit from the weaker lineups and the overall style of play. He's unlikely to blow people away and frankly, in the NL, he wouldn't need to be.
What He Can Be: A Back Of The Rotation Starter in The AL, a middle of the rotation guy in the NL
2008 Course Of Action: Marquez will likely be headed to Scranton for some more work, but to be quite honest, I don't think Marquez will ever play a game in a Yankee uniform. With the amount of starting gigs in the Bronx running out and the Yankees continuing to draft well, Marquez will probably be traded at some point this season.
The Skinny: Obtained in the Randy Johnson trade, Ohlendorf was the best prospect to be exchanged between the two teams. Unfortunately, he didn’t show it as he was torched in Triple A and demoted back to Rookie League.
The Good: Ohlendorf's best pitch is a hard sinker that induces ground balls and clocks in between 90-94 mph. He also has a pretty nifty slider to go with it.
The Bad: Ohlendorf's changeup is a below average pitch. even then, he doesn't have the tools enough to succeed as much more than a fifth starter. Hence he projects better off in the pen.
Projection: Low. I really don't see much more how Ohlendorf can improve, really.
What He Can Be: A Setup Man
2008 Course Of Action: Ohlendorf will compete for a job in the big league pen for the Yankees this Spring Training, where it's hope that he'll give the Yankees a better option in relief than several of the retreads on the market.
Final Thoughts
Overall, you can assume two things out of the Yankees’ farm system as a whole. First of all, the future looks bring when you see the amount of talent on the mound. Second, this system lacks any sort of positional players and that presents an immediate liability toward the future, especially with so many regular players aging and the lack of any other sort of internal options for first base and catcher, just to start.
One of the things that Theo Epstein has always emphasized is the need to have a healthy farm system. Seeing that he had a natural advantage over much of the rest of baseball thanks to Boston’s financial clout giving him the ability to pay above slot for several impact arms, as well as the willingness to take a chance on talent that falls due to character concerns. As a result, what Boston has developed is a solid system filled with young, impact talent that could help extend the winning or provide the Red Sox with valuable trade chips. That was seen down the stretch with contributions from Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester, along with the heroics of Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia, all farm raised Red Sox. However, in terms of performance, it was also a hard year for some Sox prospects, who took their lumps this year, but overall, a lot of their prospects have done well for themselves. So, while the overall results may not agree with what some of you may regard, the skill is there for some dominance.
Red Sox Top 15
1 – Clay Buchholz (RHP)
DOB: 8/14/84
Drafted: 1st round, 2005, Angelina (Texas) JUCO
2008 Club: Boston Red Sox (MLB)
Height/Weight: 6-3/190
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: One of the two "Killer B's" duo for the Red Sox, Buchholz is the top prospect in the Red Sox's farm system and went through the season last year with flying colors, the highlights beng when he outdueled Roger Clemens in a rehab start and when he spun a no-hitter against the Orioles. Even with Curt Schilling back, there's really not a whole lot blocking Buchholz from Boston.
The Good: Buchholz has some of the nastiest stuff in the entire minor leagues. His fastball regularly clocks in the low to mid 90's, but he accompanies the impressive heater with a pair of plus offerings in his curveball and changeup. He also throws a two seam fastball that has late life as well. His command and control are outstanding and his delivery brings up no problems.
The Bad: Some would like to see him gain weight to build a bit more stamina. The only real criticism I’ve heard is from Ken Rosenthal, who reported in a column that Buchholz’s fastball has little movement, similar to Josh Beckett, which could result in a possible tendency to give up the long ball. Kevin Goldstein has mentioned that Buchholz doesn’t use his fastball enough as well. But really, I’m just nitpicking.
Projection: Low. Buchholz is possibly the best prospect in baseball, if not the best pitching prospect, and likely will be knocking on the door of the big club, much as Phil Hughes did with New York.
What He Can Be: A Big League Ace
2008 Course Of Action: There isn't much blocking Buchholz from Boston, but should he not make the team, he'll be waiting for someone to falter.
2 – Jacoby Ellsbury (CF)
DOB: 9/11/83
Drafted: 1st Round, 2005, Oregon State
2008 Club: Boston Red Sox (MLB)
Height/Weight: 6-1/185
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: After a solid college career, Ellsbury signed with the Red Sox, who saw him to be the eventual successor to Johnny Damon in centerfield. Ellsbury has done nothing but hit since then and after making a impression late in the season, he wound up taking over for Coco Crisp in the middle of the playoffs and got national fame for being the guy who swiped the base that won America a free taco, whoot!
The Good: Ellsbury is the prototypical leadoff centerfielder. He’s got excellent bat speed and great plate discipline. He’s got a good eye for pitches and is a solid runner on the bases. Defensively, he’s got outstanding range and fielding instincts.
The Bad: Ellsbury won’t hit for a lot of power and he’s got a below average arm for center. Also, while he does draw walks, he doesn’t have the amount of walks that a leadoff hitter usually has. Hence, there are many that feel that in order for Ellsbury to succeed as a leadoff man, he’s going to have to hit .300 constantly to makeup for the lack of power.
Projection: Low. Ellsbury is ready for the job now. However, Ellsbury doesn’t rank in the high ceilings of talent that some other centerfield prospects (Justin Upton, Andrew McCutchen and Jay Bruce to name a few), so he really is what he is, a safe prospect, a solid big leaguer, but in no ways a superstar.
What He Can Be: An every day centerfielder that makes a couple of All Star Teams.
2008 Course Of Action: After his monster postseason, it’s going to be hard for the Sox not to have Ellsbury as their opening day centerfielder. Expect them to shop Coco Crisp heavily.
3 – Justin Masterson (RHP)
DOB: 3/22/85
Drafted: 2nd round, 2006, San Diego State
2008 Club: Pawtucket Red Sox (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 6-6/250
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Masterson was a little-known quantity before his dominated 2005 Cape Cod League. Since then, he’s been rather solid for the Red Sox and one of the few prospects that hasn’t gotten the #### beat out of him on a regular basis. Since being acquired, the Red Sox have moved him into a starter, where they have hope that he can be similar to former Red Sox Derek Lowe.
The Good: Masterson is has a workhorse’s body and good size. His huge build helps give his sinking fastball some extra sink, giving it hellacious movement, inducing lots of groundouts and usually clocking in at around 90-92 mph, going as high as 94.. He compliments it with a tight slider. He rarely yields the long ball and has solid mechanics and control.
The Bad: Masterson is a groundball demon, but isn’t going to strike anyone out. His changeup is inconsistent, but the most troublesome problem with him is that in the rotation, he loses his stuff over extending innings, with the sinker falling to the high 90’s and his slider losing some of it’s sharpness. As a result, many feel he may be better off as a long reliever.
Projection: Average. Though still raw, Masterson is coming along well and has moved farther along than expected. For the moment, Boston is intent on keeping him in the rotation for now.
What He Can Be: A rotation workhorse.
2008 Course Of Action: Masterson has developed a little quicker than expected, and will likely being the season at Pawtuckett. I really don’t see him getting a call late in the season, except maybe in September.
4 – Michael Bowden (RHP)
DOB: 9/9/86
Drafted: 1st Round, 2005, Illinois High School
2008 Club: Portland Sea Dogs (Double A)
Height/Weight: 6-3/215
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Bowden is the other member of Boston's "Killer B's" pitching prospect set. While he's not nearly as good as Buccholz, Bowden figures to be a solid contributor once he gets to the majors. He dominated the California league last season, something that is hard to do, but may have been promoted a little too soon after he had trouble in Double A.
The Good: Bowden is a good-looking prospect. He's got a fastball that sits in the 89-92 range and his curveball is a plus offering. He's got a big frame and maintain his velocity deep into outings. He's also got outstanding command and control.
The Bad: Bowden needs to improve his changeup. Many also feel his delivery is too complex. He’s also a little flyball friendly.
Projection: Average. Depending on his changeup, Bowden could rise fast or stay where he's at, but it's not as if he's losing development time by staying in the minors for a couple of years.
What He Can Be: A Middle Of The Rotation Starter.
2008 Course Of Action: Bowden isn't as polished as Buchholz, so the Red Sox are taking it slower with him. Expect him to stay in Double A unless he forces Boston to promote him to Pawtucket.
5 – Jed Lowrie (SS)
DOB: 4/17/84
Drafted: 1st Round, 2005, Stanford
2008 Club: Pawtucket Red Sox (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 6-0/185
Bats/Throws: S/R
The Skinny: Lowrie had a tremendous career at Stanford, but struggles during wood bat showcases as an amateur put the fear of god in scouts and the result was that he dropped to the Red Sox. Lowrie has since enjoyed a breakout season in the high minors last year and should be ready to contribute to a big league club someday soon.
The Good: A solid athlete, Lowrie’s trademark was the fact that he had some solid plate discipline and it’s something that’s stayed with him as a pro. He hits equally well from both sides of the plate. He also hits for a little power and should contribute something to a major league club lineup near the back end of the order.
The Bad: Lowrie isn’t much of a burner, though he could be a 15-15 player as a second baseman. More concerning is that he’s lacking somewhat defensively. His arm is only average as is his accuracy, leading to the possibility that he may have to slide over to second base in the future. His power has also mysteriously disappeared since he signed. He has nothing close to Lillibridge’s speed though, and while stolen bases may be overrated, defense isn’t, and Lowrie is still a bit short there, lacking the first-step quickness needed to project as a player with enough range to stay on the left side of the infield.
Projection: Low. Lowrie’s pretty well developed, though the disappearance of his power is a concern. He looks like more of an offensive second baseman at this point, but the Red Sox will keep him at shortstop for now as Dustin Pedroia has second base locked up for what looks like a long time.
What He Can Be: A solid second baseman.
2008 Course Of Action: The fact that Lowrie was shown off during the Arizona Fall League was likely intentional, as the Red Sox are currently set at second and shortstop with Pedroia and Lugo. So, the Red Sox are hoping that Lowrie will invite some takers and could be flipped for something useful or hope that Lugo continues to build up trade value and they can flip him for Lowrie.
6 – Jason Place (CF)
DOB: 5/8/88
Drafted: 1st round, 2006, South Carolina HS
2008 Club: Greenville Drive (Low A)
Height/Weight: 6-3/205
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Place is another example of a high risk, high reward player who drew several comparisons to Braves outfielder Jeff Francoeur early on in his high school career. Place had an impressive short season debut, but his promotion to Low A revealed that he’s still really raw as a player.
The Good: Place has a lot of thunder in his bat and he can put on a show at batting practice or during a game. He’s got good speed and uses it well, making him a potential 20 steal guy in the majors. Defensively, Place uses his speed to cover a lot of ground and flashing some solid leather in the outfield. He’s got a cannon of an arm as well, an edge that he has over Jacoby Ellsbury, though it’s likely that Place will eventually shift to an outfield corner, as his bat fits better in that position.
The Bad: Place’s swing is long and despite the fact that the Red Sox have tried to get him to cut down on the strikeouts, chances are he’ll always strike out a lot. There is a concern as to how Place will adjust to advanced pitchers as he continues to advance.
Projection: Very high. Place’s struggles haven’t hurt his stock any; you have to keep in mind he’s still really young.
What He Can Be: An All Star Right Fielder
2008 Course Of Action: Place will likely repeat at Greenville, where the Red Sox hope that his exposure to full season ball wil help him get back on track.
7 – Ryan Kalish (CF)
DOB: 10/23/81
Drafted: 9th Round, 2006, New Jersey High School
2008 Club: Lowell Spinners (SS)
Height/Weight: 6-1/205
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: Another late round pick that fell because of money constraints, Kalish was regarded to be an excellent athlete with a lot of upside that needed to translate his tools into talent. After holding him back in extended this year, Kalish performed better than expected and was beginning to hit for power and average, while becoming a terror on the basepaths, before a broken hamate bone ended his season.
The Good: An excellent athlete with tools galore, Kalish has begun to translate them into performance. With solid power potential, excellent speed, a good approach to the plate, as well as solid defense, Kalish has a bright future ahead of him. Some feel he’s a potential leadoff hitter in the future.
The Bad: He’s still really raw, especially on defense, making some wonder if he’s a right fielder in the future. He also has trouble against lefties and he’s very much a Pedro Serrano type of guy (bat afraid of curve.)
Projection: Very High. Kalish has loads of potential, but the gap from what he can be and what he is now is just enormous.
What He Can Be: An impact centerfielder
2008 Course Of Action: I have Kalish repeating at Lowell, though Boston may feel his performance merits a promotion. I say, let’s see what he can do over a season and if he continues to hit like he did, promote him.
8 – Lars Anderson (1B)
DOB: 9/25/87
Drafted: 18th Round, 2006, California High School
2008 Club: Lancaster Jethawks (High A)
Height/Weight: 6-4/210
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: Regarded by many to be a first round talent, Anderson scared off many people because of his bonus demands and scouts were divided on him otherwise. The Red Sox decided to give him a shot in the 18th, playing him nearly $900,000 and thus far, he’s been raking ever since.
The Good: A large, powerful slugger with good athleticism, Anderson’s projectable frame gives him one of the highest power ceilings in the system. His swing is extremely smooth and he displays great hitter's frame and excellent pitch recognition.
The Bad: Anderson is only an average first baseman and may be better off as a DH. He also strikes out a ton. He’s also a bit of an afternoon delight (power in BP, not as much during the games.)
Projection: High. In spite of his strikeout totals and his defense, he still has a lot of upside and has a lot more to grow.
What He Can Be: A middle of the order first baseman who gets the David Ortiz treatment
2008 Course Of Action: Anderson will likely return to Lancaster, where he should put up some obscene numbers in one of the most hitter friendly parks in the minors.
9 – Nick Hagadone (LHP)
DOB: 1/01/86
Drafted: 1st Round (S), 2007, University Of Washington
2008 Club: Lancaster Jethawks (High A)
Height/Weight: 6-5/230
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: After spending last year starting behind Tim Lincecum, Hagadone became Washington's Friday night starter to begin the year. He was moved to the bullpen after two starts because of team need and was outstanding for the Huskies, showing the ability to save games and pitch multiple innings. Boston found themselves without a first rounder this year and selected Hagaone, who has made the selection look smart.
The Good: A big left who is slowly being stretched out again as a starter, Hagadone has a fastball that sits in the low 90’s and tops out at 95 with good movement through the zone. He also has a hard slider that is a plus pitch, giving him an effective two pitch combo. He’s also working on a promising changeup and a splitter. Boston loves his work ethic and his bulldog demeanor on the mound. All in all, he’s got a good package of tools.
The Bad: There are some concerns that he may not be able to maintain his stuff over six or seven innings. Plus, while the changeup is promising, it’s still a ways off. There are also concerns about his delivery as well.
Projection: Average. He could have a chance at an effective two-pitch mix, but worst-case scenario, he’d be an excellent setup man or closer with his stuff.
What He Can Be: A middle of the rotation horse or a setup man with closer ambitions.
2008 Course Of Action: With his first year in the books, Hagadone will be sent to full season ball to get his feet under him. Unfortunately, that likely means an assignment to Lancaster, one of the worst hitters parks in the nation that has already claimed one Red Sox prospect (see Bard, Daniel). There’s also the possibility that he could be assigned to Greenville. I don’t know, we’ll see.
10 – Oscar Tejeda (SS)
DOB: 12/12/89
Signed: 2006, Dominican Republic
2008 Club: Greenville Drive (Low A)
Height/Weight: 6-1/177
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: The other of the Red Sox’s two big name International Signings, Tejeda has performed just as well, if not better than fellow bonus baby Engel Beltre, since traded to the Rangers. Tejeda hit well in for the Gulf Coast League Red Sox and the Lowell Spinners and overall, his performance is remarkable considering how old he is.
The Good: Though the power isn't there quite yet, it should gradually emerge in time. He’s got good bat speed, well, speed in general, and has excellent range, good hands, and a strong arm.
The Bad: He’s still young, and still has a long way to go in terms of development. And, as I’ve said, he’s got power potential, and it’s not here yet. He’s also prone to errors, though that’s mostly because he plays with a flashy, undisciplined style.
Projection: Super High. Tejeda is definitely a high class talent and should develop nicely nto a potential superstar if he keeps this up. However, what he can be is a long way off from what he is now.
What He Can Be: An Above Average Shortstop, Occasional All-Star.
2008 Course Of Action: With Tejeda holding his own against advanced competition, Tejeda will likely head up to full season ball, which should tell us more about him than what we’ve learned in his short-season stints.
11 – Josh Reddick (CF/RF)
DOB: 2/19/87
Drafted: 17th Round, 2006, Middle Georgia College
2008 Club: Lowell Spinners (High A)
Height/Weight: 6-2/180
Bats/Throws: L/R
The Skinny: Yet another Red Sox bonus baby, Reddick began the year in Extended spring training before joining Greenville for 94 games, hitting .306/.352/.531 wit 18 homers and 72 RBI’s.
The Good: Reddick is a solid hitting prospect, with good hand-eye coordination, bat speed, and raw power allowing him to be able to hit at any level given time. He’s an excellent athlete that has good speed, a solid arm and is a decent defender.
The Bad: Reddick can be overaggressive at the plate and will be taken advantage of as he rises, likely resulting in increased strikeout totals. He also is more suited to right field than center, as his range is fringy at best in center.
Projection: Average. Reddick is developing on schedule, but needs to make some refinements in his plate discipline in order for him to increase his value in the lineup. He’ll likely always strikeout a lot, but if he can increase his walk totals and hit for a tolerable average, he should be good.
What He Can Be: An good corner outfielder.
2008 Course Of Action: Reddick was a big surprise and should put up some solid numbers in Lancaster. However, people are still going to dismiss Reddick’s performance as that of a hitter taking advantage of a hitters park, so it’s likely that there won’t be any reduction of his critics criticisms until he reaches Portland, likely in August.
12 – Kris Johnson (LHP)
DOB: 10/14/84
Drafted: 1st round, 2006, Wichita State
2008 Club: Portland Sea Dogs (Double A)
Height/Weight: 6-4/170
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: Draft eligible as a sophomore, Johnson was returned for his Junior Year after having to recover from Tommy John surgery, but returned quickly and finished strongly. Unfortunately, he was them sent to the California League last year and was hammered, though in his defense, Lancaster is a hard park to pitch in.
The Good: Johnson throws a 89-92 mph sinking fastball and compliments it with a solid curveball. He also has a very good changeup as well. His delivery is smooth and he keeps his head on the mound.
The Bad: Command and control are still off, a typical symptom of TJ Survivors. He's also inconsistent and there have been questions just to how good he'll be.
Projection: Average. Johnson has proven that he can at least last for clear to 150 innings or so, but he needs to gain some consistency on the mound.
What He Can Be: A Number 4 Starter.
2008 Course Of Action: I don't think that Johnson or the Red Sox have any desire to send him back to Lowell, so it's likely to Portland for him.
13 – Brandon Moss (RF)
DOB: 9/16/83
Drafted: 8th Round, 2002, Georgia High School
2008 Club: Pawtucket Red Sox (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 6-0/205
Bats/Throws: L/R
The Skinny: Three years ago, Moss first became a blip on the prospect scene after he destroyed the Sally League and was named league MVP. After that, Moss faded a bit after he posted a pair of subpar seasons over in Double A Portland. Since then, Moss has managed to boost his stock back to where he can be considered a prospect again.
The Good: Moss, an excellent athlete, has very solid power in his swing and could be a 20-30 home run threat once he finishes developing. He’s got a solid swing and he is able to hit to all fields. He’s got a cannon of an arm, which works well in right field and has decent speed as well. Overall, he’s got a decent set of tools.
The Bad: Moss’ range is limited, meaning that he’s going to have to play a corner. Defensively, Moss is only an average defender in right and will need to greatly improve it if he wants to stay there. Finally, Moss is impatient at the plate, as judged by his almost 2 to 1 ratio of strikeouts to walks. While many feel that he can maintain a decent average, I think he’ll average about .275 to .280. Not bad, but not great either.
Projection: Low. Moss should be ready to contribute to a big league squad by June or so.
What He Can Be: An average right fielder that hits for power.
2008 Course Of Action: It’s going to be impossible for Moss to find a job in the Red Sox outfield. He’ll be a traded sometime this fall, making it likely we could see him again.
14 – Daniel Bard (RHP)
DOB: 6/25/85
Drafted: 1st Round, 2006, University of North Carolina
2008 Club: Lancaster Jethawks (High A)
Height/Weight: 6-4/200
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Bard came into last year's draft with one of the best arms in the draft, but a lack of consistency as far as his performance, plus the salary demands of teammate Andrew Miller resulted in Bard falling until the Red Sox took him toward the end of the first round. He signed too late to make a pro-debut last year and nearly returned to North Carolina for his senior season before a deal was struck late. Since then, everything that could go wrong has gone wrong, with Bard getting destroyed in A Ball and having to deal with arm and elbow issues as well.
The Good: Bard's got a live arm, one of the best in the draft, and that's even above higher drafted players such as Luke Hochevar and Tim Lincecum. He's got an easy delivery and throws his plus fastball in the mid 90's, though he can touch 98 and he's got good movement on it. His slider is also a plus pitch, sitting in the mid to upper 80's. His circle change and his curveball are decent pitches as well.
The Bad: Bard has always been inconsistent since his days in North Carolina. His command and control are below what he should have as a college pitcher. Bard's other weapons, though decent, are far from extraordinary, and many people are wondering if Bard's future may be as a reliever, though his fastball and slider have closer potential. Combined with all of the arm ailments, and he’s going to be trouble.
Projection: Average. Bard needs a lot of development time and work for him to have success. His college numbers are quite average, and while the arm is valuable, it’s going to take some time. I think long term, you’ll see Bard get moved into the pen.
What He Can Be: A Power Closer, A La K-Rod
2008 Course Of Action: Bard will likely return to the California League after some work in extended Spring Training. The Red Sox are likely going to hope that Bard is able to regroup from his earlier pounding and force a promotion to Double A, like Bowden did.
15 – George Kottaras (C)
DOB: 5/10/83
Drafted: 20th round, 2002, Connors State Junior College (Draft And Follow – Padres)
2008 Club: Pawtucket Red Sox (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 6-0/190
Bats/Throws: L/R
The Skinny: Acquired from San Diego for David Wells, Kottaras was one of the few prospects the Padres had that was really any good. However, Kottaras struggled for much of his time in Boston, but came to life in the second half of last season when he became a monster.
The Good: Kottaras is an offensive minded catcher, though many feel that his flaws are correctable. A natural hitter with good plate discipline, Kottaras has some power that could potentially make him a 20 homer threat. He’s got a decent arm and has experience catching a knuckleballer.
The Bad: Kottaras struggles against lefties last season, but struggled against right handers this season. Odd. Despite his arm, he has trouble throwing out base stealers thanks to a slow release.
Projection: Low. The Red Sox are hoping that Kottaras’ late second half surge is a sign of him turning the corner, but beyond that, there’s not much room to grow left for him.
What He Can Be: A starting catcher
2008 Course Of Action: The Red Sox will likely return Kottaras to Triple A, where they hope he can continue his hot hitting ways, but their recent interest in the Rangers’ catching backlog doesn’t speak much in terms of their confidence.
Not Ranked, But May Be Seen In Big Leagues This Year
The Skinny: A late round pick, Carter bashed his way through the minor leagues, setting impressive power totals everywhere he’s gone. Unfortunately for him, he had almost no shot of cracking Arizona’s roster, with his positions being occupied by established veterans. However, Carter had his admirers and was included in the three-way trade that netted the Nationals Wily Mo Pena.
The Good: Power is Carter’s best, and really only tool, though he does have decent plate discipline.
The Bad: Carter is regarded to be an abysmal defender in left and bad at first base. He’s probably best suited to be a DH, though with some work in Spring Training, it’s possible that he could be reasonably okay at first if stuck there.
Projection: Low. Carter was regarded by many to be simply a minor league slugger with no real shot at making an impact on the roster, but Boston has had some scouting coups in the past and are likely banking on Carter to be their regular first baseman next year, allowing Youkilis to move back to third.
What He Can Be: A regular first baseman
2008 Course Of Action: It really all depends on what the Red Sox decide to do with Youkilis. If they decide to move him to third, Carter will likely enter the season as the everyday first baseman. If they decide to bring back Lowell or chase down Alex Rodriguez, Carter gets #### over again.
And for Giggles…
Craig Hansen (RHP)
DOB: 11/15/83
Drafted: 1st Round, 2005, St. John's University
2008 Club: Pawtucket Red Sox (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 6-6/210
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: When the Red Sox drafted Hansen, they expected him to be their closer of the future. Obviously, that forecast has changed, as Papelbon will be the closer while Hansen tries to regain some of his former luster, which he has thanks to a excellent finish to the season.
The Good: Despite his stock falling hard, Hansen still has to solid pitches in a fastball that clocks in the mid 90’s and tops out at 98. His slider has decent movement and gets up to 85.
The Bad: The slider is not the plus pitch that it was when Hansen was back at St. John’s. Part of the reason is the ball. In the NCAA, the stitches on the ball are higher than in the majors, resulting in some loss of movement. The bigger problem has been command and confidence, as Hansen tends to get wild and got hammered quite a bit, though oddly enough, he was a lot better on the road than he was at Fenway.
Projection: Fair. I’m not , but I’m really not sure what exactly can be done to fix Hansen, as he was rushed a little bit.
What He Can Be: Maybe A Closer, More Likely A Setup Man, Looking Like Neither Will Be With Boston
2008 Course Of Action: Hansen will try to latch on with the Red Sox out of spring training, but long term I think he’s a goner. Look for him to get moved at the deadline in a deal for a need or for prospects that are a lot farther off.
Final Thoughts
Though the Farm System has lost some talent in recent years, it’s still very much loaded. Buchholz, Bowden, Ellsbury, and Tejeda are all talents any team would love to have in their respective systems and there are enough B class prospects that could carve out decent major league careers with the Red Sox or with other teams if they are dealt. Overall, Boston’s system is a testament to the philosophy that if you throw enough money at high ceiling talents, it’ll pay off in the long run.
Sources, Scouting Reports, and Thanks to: Kevin Goldstein (Baseball Prospectus), Keith Law (ESPN), Soxprospects.com, B.J. Medrano, Jim Callis And The Rest Of Baseball America, Jonathan Mayo (MLB.com), MiLB.com, Sam Corral and Erica Belmontes, Ernie Carlson, Lonestarball.com, Jamey Newberg (Newbergreport.com), Brewerfan.net and Mike Hindman (Rangers Farm Report)
There are going to be some names on this list if things stay put the way they look right now. However, there is no clear cut dominating favorite, as many of these closers are either A) Old, B) Injury Prone, or C) Inconsistent.
Mariano Rivera (Yankees) – It’s hard to imagine that Rivera would consider closing for someone else, but he’s apparently ready to make good on his threat if the Yankees won’t sign him. If he hits the market, Rivera can still be a viable closer, provided that all those innings that Torre used him to cover the deficiencies in the bullpen don’t catch up to him. However, I doubt New York will let him get away. As much as the Yankees make of Rivera being sort of expendable, the fact is that there isn’t many pitchers in the system that could replace Rivera. Proctor is likely going to be a starter at some point, Farnsworth should only be a closer in the NL and J.B. Cox in the system is a setup man.
Eric Gagne (Rangers) – Okay, everyone in Ranger Nation knows that Gagne is really only a one year wonder with Texas, as he’ll likely strike it rich somewhere else with another team, in spite of his recent comments that he wants to remain in Texas. Gagne looks all the way back so far and he could be the best free agent closer on the market.
Francisco Cordero (Brewers) – Coco Cordero was a solid closer with the Rangers, but he fell on hard times after his command left him, which is a shame as he’s actually a very underrated closer. Cordero brings excellent stuff and is effective as long as his command doesn’t desert him. After Gagne, Cordero could prove to be very attractive to a team needing a long-term answer at closer, but be careful. While Gagne has health issues, Cordero still has control issues that have resulted in his new nickname in the state of Texas: Blow-co.
Jason Isringhausen (Cardinals) – [If $8 million Club Option Declined]. I’m not sure that Isringhausen can last a full season, let alone serve as a closer for a team on a regular basis. I think he’s likely going to retire, though there’s always the chance that some team will take a chance with him if the price is right (I’m looking at you Florida.)
Bob Wickman (Braves) – Wickman is likely going to be a free agent, especially with all of the closers and closer quality arms that Atlanta acquired during the off-season. Like Isringhausen, I think he’ll also retire or sign with a team willing to take a flier on his.
Todd Jones (Tigers) – Everyone knows that Zumaya will be the closer in Detroit comes next year. Jones is a heart attack closer that really shouldn’t be closing anymore, as he’s quite hittable and makes you nervous when he takes the mound.
Jeff Allison Attempting A Comeback…Again
Jeff Allison, the much-troubled former first-round pick for the Marlins, who I've written about at length in this blog, is attempting another comeback, trying to work his way back into playing shape at the Marlins' spring training facility in Jupiter, Florida. However, it's unknown where Allison would be assigned, as he's now been out of baseball for almost two years, though any comeback will likely begin at Rookie Ball.
Allison was taken off the restricted list and re-joined the organization for formal workouts June 20. Allison is currently awaiting trial on felony possession of a stolen vehicle, but has been struggling most often with drugs, specifically the drug Oxy-Contin and Heroin.
Like the Josh Hamilton story, this could have a happy ending, though it would take a lot longer than Hamilton due to the development time needed on pitchers. However, I'm a little more skeptical on Allison, mostly because we've heard this story again and we've seen it end in collosal failure.
I do with him the best. I really do.
I'm just a bit more jaded about him.
Not All Lost In Cincinnati
Despite General Manager Wayne Krivsky taking a virtuall wrecking ball to the Reds, when realistically, there was enough of a solid foundation built and in place that only some minor tweeking to repair, he has managed to assemble enough of a young foundation to work on.
Consider the fact that while most of the team blows, Cincinnati does have two young starters in Aaron Harang and Broson Arroyo, a potential closer in Marcus McBeth, a pair of young stud positional players in Brandon Phillips and Josh Hamilton, and finally, a pair of superstar caliber prospects in Jay Bruce and Homer Bailey, respectively.
That's not bad, especially when you consider the potential impact of Bruce, who many feel is the second coming of Larry Walker.
There's a lot more to be done. Krivsky made a huge, potentially fatal mistake in trading away Felipe Lopez, Austin Kearns, and others for relievers, what is now regarded to be his big weakness (so if you got a reliever, give him a call) and he's grown visibily impatient with Adam Dunn due to his strikeouts, and his first draft pick, Drew Stubbs, is struggling mightily in Low A.
But for now, there is some comfort in knowing there's enough of a young core to identify and grown around in the future.
Key Piece Of The Abreu Deal Might Be Done With Baseball
Earlier this week, there was news that Phillies outfielder C.J. Henry was no longer is going to play baseball and planned to leave the Phillies organization soon. The news is premature, as Henry has cooled the fires down somewhat, but has admitted that he might join his younger brother Xavier on a college basketball team in 2008-09 if baseball hasn't worked out.
So far, it's looking that way.
Henry was drafted more on the basis of his gifts than his actual abilties. Henry was thought to eventually be a future version of Gary Sheffield with his extreme power potential and speed. Unfortunately, Henry's swing is long and he has struggled to hit advanced pitching. He's inadequate as a defender and is now on this third position change, now playing left field.
Should Henry opt out, his original contract provides for eight semesters of tuition at $15,000 per semester under baseball scholarship's plan. Henry's basketball prowess is still said to be high and he would essentially be able to name his program and try and join as a walk on.
Just another reason to blame Pat Gillick for not getting enough in return for Abreu.
Why Coco Crisp is not long in Boston, why J.P. Riccardi is a horrible GM that should have been fired a long time ago, 2007 Free Agent Pitchers (Part 1 of 3) and the Royals' Rookie Closer.
Coco Not Long In Beantown
Tired of Coco Crisp yet Boston?
Don't worry. He won't be there for long.
Simply put, for two reasons:
Andruw Jones is a free agent after this season
Jacoby Ellsbury has reached Triple A
Crisp has long been seen as a stopgap for Ellsbury, who is an OBP machine in the minors and looks to be the second coming of Johnny Damon in the Red Sox system. He's a excellent centerfielder with speed, plate discipline, and insticts in the outfield. And at this point in time, there's going to be a desire to see him sooner rather than later in Crisp continues to struggle.
As for Jones, Jones was pursued by Boston last season and was almost dealt for until the Red Sox balked at the Braves' demand for Jon Lester to be included in the deal. With Jones nearing Free Agency and the Braves not likely to bring him back, he would be a excellent addition in the short term for the Red Sox, who could play him in center for one year while Ellsbury remains in Triple A for one more year. Afterward, the Red Sox would allow Manny Ramirez to leave, then promote Ellsbury to center while allowing Jones to slide over to left field, where the overall Boston Defense would improve. Jones would also serve as protection for Ortiz in the lineup, as his bat is just as potent as Ramirez'
Crisp in the meantime, would be quite attractive as a trade chip to teams needing a centerfielder and would net another prospect for the Red Sox, who need a third baseman who can succeed Mike Lowell.
It's not a trade rumor, it's simply an obersvation that bears watching.
J.P. Ricciardi - A Disaster That Walks Like A Man
Apologies to the Daily Show for the tagline, but it fits Toronto's hapless GM. For some reason or another, ownership is steadfastly standing by their GM, even though he's probably done far more harm to the organization than good, in terms of his wheeling and dealing.
Let's rewind a bit. The Blue Jays dominated the American League in the early 90's, winning the World Series in 1992 and 1993, but had to jetison most of the team because of the strike and a decline in fan base. The team worked itself back to try and rebuild itself from within, but the process cost then GM Gord Ash his job. Ricciardi, then one of Billy Beane's lieutenants in Oakland, had made a name for himself as Oakland's director of personnel and was given the job.
Since then, Ricciardi has made some severely questionable decisions, in terms of the talent brought in and given away. Here are the players Toronto has brought in that have made any sort of impact that are still on the roster:
B.J. Ryan (LHP) - The O's former closer had an All Star caliber season before his Tommy John procedure cost him his season and Ricciardi's credability.
Troy Glaus (3B) - Obtained in a trade with Arizona and probably one of the few trades where Toronto may have gotten the better deal.
Lyle Overbay (1B) - Brought in to counterbalance Glaus. A minor deal, really.
A.J. Burnett (RHP) -
And here's who's gone, by trade or by free agency:
Michael Young (SS) - Traded for Esteban Loaiza. Loaiza was average in Toronto and left via free agency. Despite his slump, he's done far better than any of the Toronto Shortstops they've fielded.
Ted Lilly (LHP) - This capable lefty wasn't shown enough love to stay with the Jays. Now he's knocking them down in Chicago.
Felipe Lopez (SS/2B) - Traded to Cincinatti, I wonder how Toronto would be fared with a infield combination of Young and Lopez instead of what they're running out right now.
Orlando Hudson (2B) - A smooth second baseman, Hudson has a decent bat that provides depth to the lineup. The DBacks send their thank yous.
Miguel Batista (RHP) - Oooh, another starting pitcher that's far better than what Toronto has right now.
Dave Bush (RHP) - Milwaukee says Thanks Again.
Carlos Delgado (1B) - A face of the franchise, Delgado was simply allowed to walk. Terrible.
Justin Speier (RHP) - A solid relief pitcher that helped cement the bullpen. He was also allowed to walk and all the Jays got was the Angels' second round draft pick.
Chris Carpenter (RHP) - Drafted by the organization and was let go. Found stardom in St. Louis.
Kelvim Escobar (RHP) - Another player allowed to leave, became a solid starter for the Angels.
Cory Lidle (RHP) - The late Corey Lidle had success in the Blue Jays and then was also allowed to leave.
Mark Hendrickson (RHP) - Traded to Tampa Bay, Hendrickson is actually a decent starter, who Toronto could use right now.
Ouch, that a lot of talent to let go, especially when you consider that many of these players would have helped Toronto compete in the short and long term and may have severely affected the race of the AL East and the American League as a whole.
But, the counterarguement is that in Oakland, the team has found ways of competeing in spite of losses of talent, for the draft pick compensation would result in high quality players that would help the big league club contribute immediately. Such a strategy would work for Toronto, right?
Not exactly.
Here's the rundown of Ricciardi's drafts, which have been focused mostly on college players, and the players that have Toronto has passed on that have become productive major leaguers. It should be noted that the two franchise cornerstone players, Vernon Wells and Roy Halladay, were not drafted by Ricciardi, but rather by the previous regime.
2002 - Russ Adams. Passed On: Scott Kazmir (Mets), Nick Swisher (Oakland), Cole Hamels (Philly), Jeff Francouer (Atlanta), Joe Blanton (Oakland), Matt Cain (Giants).
2003 - Aaron Hill. Passed On: Chad Cordero (Nationals), Brandon Wood (Angels), Chad Billingsley (Dodgers)
2004 - David Purcey, Zach Johnson. Passed On: Josh Fields (White Sox), Philip Hughes (Yankees), Eric Hurley (Rangers), Huston Street (Oakland)
2005 - Ricky Romero. Passed On: Troy Tulowitzki, Mike Pelfrey, Cameron Maybin, Andrew McCutcheon, Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Garza,
2006 - Travis Snyder.
Of all of these drafts, the Jays have let better players fall past them in order to draft college talent that they figured would have less of a change of a bust potential. Of all of Ricciardi's drafts, only Snyder looks like he'll become anything special and allow Hamels and Cain to slip past them, along with Street, Garza and others, make Ricciardi's draft decisions look questionable at best.
Typically, it takes 5 years for it to see i####eneral Manager is working out or not for a franchise, as that is how long it takes for the talent development department for the team in order to bring up the fruits of the draft to the big league club. Toronto hasn't done that and has hemmoraged more talent away from the club than it has to brought into it. Toronto has misjudged their own free agent decisions, either by time, evaluation or money and the result has been a loss of players that the Jays had to keep around if they wanted to remain competitive. I know Toronto isn't made of money like their other AL Rivals, but there is a point in time where you need to hold onto your own homegrown players, otherwise the drain on your club can become overpowering.
2007 Free Agency - Starting Pitchers (Fours And Fives)
Continuing the look at free agency after this season, here is a look at starting pitching, namely back of the rotation starters. This market looks rather pathetic, but there are a few attractive options that could work for a team in need of a fourth starter.
Kenny Rogers (Tigers) – There’s going to be the usual health questions with Rogers, considering he’s now in his early 40’s and nearing retirement. His stuff is very much diminished and he gets by more on deception than by pure raw stuff. However, he’d be a suitable fourth starter for any team willing to pay for his services. Unless he’s totally soured on management, I can see him taking a one year deal to finish his career in Texas, where it all started.
Joe Kennedy (Athletics) – Kennedy will be hitting the free agent market at the right time. He's a left hander with decent stuff that has seen his career turn around since he left Colorado. Kennedy is off to a solid starter and a good season will net him a 3 year, $33 million deal from somebody.
Kris Benson (Orioles) – [If $7.5MM club option is declined.] I don’t expect Benson to return to the Orioles, as his tenure with Baltimore has pretty much been a disappointment all around, though to be fair, he was a relatively cheap date as far as what was given up (Jorge Julio and a John Maine that would have floundered in Baltimore). Realistically, I expect Benson to take a incentive laden one year deal in order to boost his value once again. Realistically, Benson is still young enough where he could afford to go that route and still obtain a multiple year deal afterwards, but you get the feeling that his stock has fallen so far that people regard him as one of the biggest over hyped talents in the past decade. I think he’d be a decent three in the National League, but don’t hold me to that.
Jon Lieber (Phillies) – Lieber is nearing the end of his career and is not going to be in line for a huge payday. However, a one year deal isn’t out of the question, as teams are always willing to pay for talent. Hey, Chan #### Park got an offer and he has worse stuff that Lieber does. Lieber outmaneuvers hitters rather than blowing them away and may be able to put up roughly league average numbers in the right situation. It’s not with the Phillies, so a team with a big ballpark may be the best thing for him.
Tomo Ohka (Blue Jays) – Millhouse’s favorite player will re-enter the free agent market after this year. Ohka’s not a bad pitcher, as he’s reasonably durable and gets by with a lot of deception. However, he’s a fighter and is willing to give you six innings of work unless he absolutely can’t go. He’d be a valuable fourth or fifth starter on a National League team.
Kyle Lohse (Reds) – The talking heads and pundits always talk about how Kyle Lohse has underachieved and should be a number two starter with his stuff. The fact of the matter is that he’s strictly a number four with maybe ambitions of being a three. However, he’s done fairly well since moving to the NL, so it’s possible that he may have just been a poor fit for the AL style of play. Anyhow, if he continues to do fairly well, he’ll get well compensated for it by a team seeking pitching depth, possibly with a 3 year, $30 million deal. Lohse features a fastball that clocks in the low 90’s and couples this with a slider that reaches the mid 80’s. He’s also got a serviceable changeup that he has some command over, but not enough to make it a plus pitch. The one thing Lohse does have going for him is that he’s fairly durable.
Josh Fogg (Rockies) – About the only thing that Fogg offers is that he’s able to log in innings. While there is some value to that, I’m not sure how great that serves a team when the offense is sputtering and they need a dominant pitching performance to win.
Joakim Soria – Another Rule V Pick Done Good (So Far…)
The Royals have made a move that is paying off big dividends so far.
And that is using a Rule V pick instead of just letting him gather dust, they took a chance on Soria when Octavio Dotel went down and he has delievered, posting a record of 1-1 with a 2.87 ERA and 6 saves in 7 opportunities. Soria was a former San Diego Padres prospect that went unprotected and was picked by Kansas City, who saw the need for a solid pitching prospect. So far, the result has been spectacular and it doesn't look like Soria will be headed by to the San Diego system anytime soon, if ever.
It seems that the University of Kentucky had the clearest idea of who they wanted to be their head coach once the season started.
In this case, it was Florida Gators Coach Billy Donovan.
ESPN has reported that the the school is prepared to offer a contract that will be a seven-year deal worth at least $2.8 million a season and as much as $3.5 million with performance-based incentives, a annual raise of more than $1 million. The formal offer could come as early as next week or as soon as Florida is eliminated from the NCAA Tournament. Donovan has declined to comment on the Kentucky job.
After this season, Donovan has five years remaining on his contract with Florida, which pays him about $1.8 million per season. Donovan and his agents have been in negotiations with Florida athletics director Jeremy Foley for nearly a year. The two sides haven't yet reached a contract extension, but Florida was already prepared to pay Donovan at least $2.5 million per season before the Kentucky job opened, also according to ESPN.
In my opinion, as much as I despite the University of Florida, partially because of my cousin who is s
