The Rangers Report – Offseason Edition

Rangers Had No Shot At Santana

The Rangers could have made a better offer than what the Twins actually got for Johan Santana.

While the Twins ultimately got a decent package of high upside prospects in Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber, Deolis Guerra, and Kevin Mulvey, the Rangers had the prospects to pull off a trade.  However, I won’t tell you what the trade would have been, though I can tell you it would have kicked the #### out of the Mets offer.

Santana wouldn’t have approved a trade here.

First of all, this isn’t exactly the best ballpark for a flyball pitcher to flourish.  Second of all, Santana, due to his no trade clause, would have vetoed a deal, as he had tremendous leverage over where he could go. 

While Santana would have given the Rangers a top of the rotation starter, there simply was no way he would have approved a trade here, even if the Rangers offered six players, many of them good ones (#### it.  RHP Eric Hurley, CF Brandon Boggs, SS Joaquin Arias, 2B German Duran, C Max Ramirez and CF Marlon Byrd), the Rangers wouldn’t even have the opportunity to negotiate an extension with him.  It just wasn’t feasible.

On A Side Note…

Oakland, going back to the Santana deal one more time, probably had a better package in return than the Twins got for Santana.  While I’m not high on the pitchers they received, Carlos Gonzalez should be a stud once he hits the big leagues and they got a hell of a masher in Chris Carter, who will be a beast once he comes up to the majors.

God I wish the Rangers could have gotten Carter.  Stupid Otsuka….

Fearing Bedard In Seattle

I am going to fear Seattle’s rotation if and when the Bedard deal is done.  While I should be happy about the fact that Seattle will be parting with some solid blue chippers, Bedard isn’t going to be a treat to face.  In fact, matching up Millwood and Padilla against Hernandez and Bedard would be like sending you out to a gunfight with only a pair of pistols, while the enemy is firing bazookas.  You have no chance (unless a rocket misfires, blowing up your opponent.  Ah Doom, how I miss thee…)

Bringing Ryan Back A Complicated Affair

Nolan Ryan is apparently interested in the vacant Rangers’ presidency gig and Tom Hicks has been active in courting Ryan to return to the Rangers.

However, actually bringing Ryan back is going to be a lot of work.

For starters, Houston might not be willing to let Ryan go, as Drayton McLane may decide to expand Ryan's role in terms of player development and decisions.  Plus, he enjoys the PR boom that Ryan gives the Astros, especially considering that he owns their Double and Triple A Franchises.

Which is another complications.  Would the Rangers allow Ryan to keep his two minor league teams?  Or would they force him to cede control of the franchises, likely to his sons Reese and Ried, if he's to be hired.

And if Ryan is indeed made President, how would that affect Jon Daniels' power.  J.D. has pretty much acted pretty autonomous and if he were to lose control over some of the minor league and player development phases (which have been vastly improved since he took over), how would that hinder his ability to run the big league club?

I love Nolan, met him once (nice guy), but as much as I love him to come back to the Rangers, I don't know if the overall impact (non-economic) would be worth it.

Bad Job Of Roster Management

If you haven’t already seen, the Rangers designated Armando Galarraga for assignment a few days ago, likely in anticipation of a Marlon Byrd deal that isn’t going to happen.

My only question is why?

I know that the Rangers have some higher ceiling pitchers on the roster, but Galarraga has plenty of upside and could wind up being a Chad Qualls type reliever in a couple of years.

Why the designation?

If anyone deserved to be DFA”d, it was Nelson Cruz, who would have made it through waivers and would have been given a Spring Training Invite along with a minor league deal.

Instead, Galarraga gets the axe and he’ll likely get claimed on waivers by a team without 40 Man space, likely the Astros, who have room in their system and 40 for him.

Unless there is a trade coming in the next few days that we haven’t heard about, this isn’t a good move and one that’s likely to blow up in the faces of the Rangers.  So far, there hasn't been word on him being claimed (8 days down, two to go.)  I only hope that the Rangers' luck holds out.

One Year Later, Still Irritated At Rod Barajas

I'm still pissed at Rod Barajas.

You cost us one extra draft pick after booking from your original deal with the Jays, you #### ####.

So full of hate that, one year later, he signs with them anyway.

Grrr.....

Will post the Prospect Six Pack Later.  I got to break something.  Long day....

Now that the Santana deal is all but over, it's time to see what exactly will happen next.

I can tell you this much.  A lot more things are going to fall into place now that the deal has been done.

Here's what is likely going to happen:

1.  Bedard Deal Likely Going To Happen Soon

With the Santana deal likely gone, the Orioles should decide in the next couple of days whether or not to accept a deal from Seattle that will send Adam Jones and three or four prospects in exchange for their ace.  It would be a good deal for the Orioles, who would gain a franchise centerfielder, more pitching depth with Chris Tillman likely headed in the deal, as well as a potential closer in George Sherill, all of whom are named in the deal.  As for the Mariners, it's a lot of farm depth to give up, which I'd be hesitant to do for a palyer likely to test free agency in two years.  And even then, there isn't a guarnatee that Bedard would put Seattle over the top with the Angels and their strong staff in the divison.

2.  Final Decision On Sabathia To Be Made Soon

Look for also the Indians to decide once and for all on the fate of C.C. Sabathia, who is entering his walk year and likely looking for a contract similar to what Santana will get.  Sabathia recently refused a 4 year, $70 million extension and wants a lot of money for a lot of years.  While Sabathia is an excellent young pitcher, his condition habits have to give one pause.  The union will also be pressuring Sabathia to hit free agency, due to their desire to increase player salaries all around.  Personally, I think the Indians are going to ride out the year before seeing Sabathia likely sign with the Yankees, who covet Sabathia and asked the Indians about a trade midseason.

3.  Remaining Free Agent Starters To Find Homes

Also, it's about now that we'll the remaining big free agent starters find homes.  Bartolo Colon, Kyle Lohse, Livan Hernandez and others should have their phones ringing now that the Santana and Bedard dramas are nearing their respective ends.  This may work out to the benefit of several teams, as Colon, Lohse and Hernandez have all been looking for multiple years in contracts.  After having to wait for a while, they may be more willing to settle for fewer years.

4.  Blame to Be Assigned In The Bronx

Now that the actually Santana trade has been agreed to, look for blame to be assigned among the Yankees staff. 

Hank Steinbrenner will likely blame Brian Cashman for not wanting to pull the trigger on a deal that could have seen Santana in pinstripes, saying that while prospects are fine and good, acquiring a legitimate ace of the staff outwieghed any possible risk of said prospects coming back to haunt them.

Cashman will likely disagree, stating that the price in prospects was simply too high.  However, when you consider that you were, essentially, sacrificng Chein Ming Wang, Melky Cabrera and what appears to be now Ian Kennedy for Santana, the sacrifice really should have been an easy one.  Say yes.

The fighting will likely turn ugly and should provide further proof that Cashman is out of New York at the end of the year.

5.  Crisp Situation Now Front Burner

Now that the Santana deal has been resolved, look for Boston to finally decide what to do with Coco Crisp.

While the entire Santana drama was playing out, many of the spots that were logical places for the Red Sox to send Crisp to addressed their centerfield needs via trade or free agency, resulting in a much smaller market for his services.

Now, really, there are two places where the Red Sox could concievably go to shop Crisp around, three if you count Oakland and their sudden dearth of prospects, two if you realize that Oakland has no intention of shopping any of them just now.

Minnesota is the place where, ironically, the Red Sox could ask if they're interested.  The Twins, now in full fledged rebuilding mode, could offer back a bullpen arm, possibly Jesse Crain, though a package from Boston for Joe Nathan would be much more plausible.

The other place is Baltimore, which could use Crisp and has some minor league depth to deal from, if Boston would prefer a player that isn't as close to free agency and could develop into something promising.

Or the Red Sox could just hang onto Crisp, though that would likely result in a lot of resentment from Crisp, who wants to start.  Say all you want about choosing to start for a bad team or being a fourth outfielder for a great one.  Most people would still prefer a starting gig.

This could turn out ugly if nothing is resolved soon.

Coming up later today!  My Super Bowl Spread Plans!!!!!!!!!!!!

Well, the national nightmare is over, as it looks like the Twins will trade Johan Santana to the Mets.

But what did they get?

As seen in my last post, Santana Circle Jerk, the Twins in essence are gambling on the upside of Carlos Gomez and Delois Guerra instead of the certainty of a Jon Lester, a Phil Hughes or a Jed Lowrie.

Guerra and Gomez could blossom into superstars.  But both have massive flaws.  Guerra has been pushed hard by the Mets, but is still young and has some projection.  He also has trouble getting out of the high 80's on his fastball, which means the Twins are hoping he'll add velocity as he matures.

As for Gomez, he too has been rushed and needs at least another year and a half of minor league play if he's to live up to his high potential. 

And really, its on Guerra and Gomez that the Twins are pinning their hopes and dreams on, as Phil Humber and Kevin Mulvey are both decent arms, but not aces and don't differ much from the Scott Baker type pitchers the Twins already have in their system.

Really, as I've stated earlier, the Twins could have had a better offer from the Red Sox (Lowrie, Lester, Crisp and likely Justin Masterson) or the Yankees (Hughes, Melky Cabrera and change.) 

But I think that there is another reason why the Twins agreed to this swap.

When something of ours disappears, we as people try to replace it as closely as we can.

And in Guerra and Gomez, the Twins are trying to replace Torii Hunter and Johan Santana as best they could, by trying to find similar players that could become their second comings.

It's a human reaction, albet a flawed one.

It's possible that in three years, both Guerra and Gomez could be superstars, making the Twins look wise in their deal.

It's also just as possible that both are massive busts.

I credit Omar Minaya on this deal, as he was able to get the best pitcher in baseball without giving up his best prospect, centerfielder Fernando Martinez, who also is a rushed, but promising young player.  He gave up nothing that he'll really miss and no one that isn't replaceable, as the Mets could easily go out to the Dominican and sign any remaining young prospects that haven't signed with teams to help replenish the farm.

I would feel pity for the Twins, but really, this is a mess of their own making.  They're choosing the riskier, but more lucrative path of gambling on the upside of some risky prospects.  It's the equivalent of playing Russian Roulette with three of the cylinders loaded for a fortune.  The payoff is huge.  So is the failure...

Grades:

Mets Grade - A
Twins Grade - B

I've had about enough of the Johan Santana rumor mill.

It's becoming increasingly obvious that he'll be there opening day with the Twins and will remain with them till at least the trade deadline.

Why?

Because it's becoming increasinly obvious that there is a lot of chatter from all sides, but no action.  Usually, the more rumors that are passed around about a player, the more unlikely it's going to happen.  It's like talking the whole night how you're going to go after the prettiest girl in the room, but at the end of the night, you're going back home to nothing but a hard drive full of porn and a full box of kleenex.

Sorry for the visual analogy, but that's what it's become in the Santana Sweepstakes, which have become nothing more than just a lot of shock jock fodder and a whole lot of New York centric media opinions (oh god, the New York media opionions!  Newsday has become unreadable!)  I swear to god, if I hear one more Hank Steinbrenner quote, I'll go up to Yankee Stadium myself and stuff his father's turtleneck in his piehole, just so he'd shut up!

BTW, is it just me, or is Steinbrenner the Younger seeming to enjoy the limelight that comes with his new job.  I think he's likely to follow in his father's footsteps, which means that the Yankees will be sucking in about five to eight years, thanks to Hank trading away the farm and signing the various Mel Hall and Danny Tartabull types on a whim.

The fact is, a trade should have already happened, as Boston, New York and New York should have pulled the trigger on a deal.

And spare me the talk about how Santana would require a huge contract extension that makes him unaffordable.  All three of these teams would be lining up to get into a money fight for Santana if he hits the market next winter.

And the Yankees are the last one's to be preaching fiscal responsibility.  Didn't they just spend $275 million on Alex Rodriguez?  They can easily afford to extend Santana, who fills a need and has more upside to any Yankee prospect with the exception of Joba.  They have $58.3 million coming off the books anyway, not counting the sunk costs of $6.95 million for paying Giambi and Pavano to go away.

Don't snicker Red Sox fans.  You all aren't any better.  You have about the same amount of money leaving the books, with Manny and Varitek's contracts coming off the books.  And you have the farm system depth to fill the holes as well. 

The Twins too also have to be reasonable.  You aren't going to get a team to completely gut their system for Santana.   It's unrealistic.  You need to get teams to agree to a reasonable set of demands and flip as soon as the best deal comes up. 

Financial reasons aside, here is what the Twins should reasonably expect to get for their ace:

• 1 High Quality Pitching Prospect
• 1 High Quality Positional Prospect
• 1 Above Average Pitching Prospect
• 1 Average Prospect Or Young Player

Here are the offers for each team:

Boston - Jon Lester (LHP), Jed Lowrie (SS/2B), Justin Masterson (RHP), Coco Crisp (CF)

I honestly don't know why the Twins haven't agreed to this deal, as it matches up with my qualifications perfectly.  I think the Twins are hoping that Boston will toss in Clay Buchholz, which won't happen.  Lester is an above average lefty who could be a number two starter.  Lowrie could start for Minnesota now and be the best second baseman they've had since Chuck Knoblauch.  Masterson has the potential to be a good pitcher in this league and Crisp helps give Minnesota a solid outfield for the first time in years.

New York (AL) - Phil Hughes (RHP), Melky Cabrera (CF), Jeff Marquez (RHP), Mitch Hillgross

This is insulting, actually.  While Hughes is very good and I like Marquez to be a solid innings eater in the NATIONAL league, the rest is just ####.  Cabrera is a average regular, not a star and I don't blame the Twins for shooing away fhe Yankees with this offer.  If you want to give me something to think about, here is what I would ask for:

Phil Hughes (RHP), Melky Cabrera (CF), Ian Kennedy (RHP), Alan Horne (RHP)

And before Yankee Fans jump on me, consider this.  Kennedy has been highly overrated since he was drafted and has been made to be a lot better than he is by the Yankee spin machine.  He is, at best, a average pitcher with excellent command and is at best a Number Three pitcher, nothing more.  He's not the second coming of Mike Mussia, who had better stuff than Kennedy at the beginning of his career.  Horne has good stuff, but is injury prone and likely a bullpen guy in the end.  Cabrera is an average regular, not a star. 

New York (NL) - Carlos Gomez (CF), Delouis Guerra (RHP), Phil Humber (RHP), Kevin Mulvey (RHP)

A good offer, it's better than what the Yankees are offering and it sends Santana to the NL, where he wouldn't haunt the Twins.  However, I would ask for Fernando Martinez, who has a chance to be a star, instead of Gomez.  That would trump the Red Sox offer and if I had that deal on the table, I'd take it and run with it.  Guerra has a chance to be a solid Number Two pitcher, Humber an inninsg eater, and Mulvey a solid 3.  That's not a bad return.

Oh, and by the way, Omar Minaya is a fool for not agreeing to trade Gomez back in November for Matt Garza, who had a chance to be the best pitcher on the Mets' roster.  The Twins should thank him, as they got Delmon Young in the deal, who is a lot better.

Unfortunately, it looks like we'll be inundated with more of the Santana claptrap, with more rantings for Hank Steinbrenner, more of us seeing Theo Epstein's Fraiser Crane impersonation with him saying "I'm listening", and more pleas from Omar Minaya for the Twins to accept his good, but not great offer. 

So sorry folks, we'll be listening to three more months of the same #### till Spring Training ends.

It’s that time again…

TIme when I try to forecast who will get into the Hall of Fame.

And every year, I've been wrong except for last year, when no brainers Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken got in (I whiffed on Gossage twice already.)

No matter.

Here's this year's edition.

Cooperstown Locks

Rich "Goose" Gossage – This is the year Goose gets in.  He got close last season, even with Ripkin and Gwynn on the ballot and will almost certainly make the hall of fame, barring any sort of mental lapse amongst the voters.  There is no reason why it should have taken this long, but as I have said, I believe that Gossage’s years as a setup man may have hurt his case for the Hall of Fame.

Jim Rice – There’s been a lot of debate recently as to whether or not Rice truly is Hall of Fame worthy.  Rice does have some good career averages, and he’s got 382 HR’s, though that isn’t good enough for a man with the reputation for a power hitter.  His numbers were partially inflated by Fenway, but he did net a MVP award in 1978.  He does get bonus points for being a slugger in a Pitcher’s Era, however and overall, with his support in Boston and much of the Eastern Seaboard, I say he gets in this year.  I don’t agree with it, however.

Dark Horses

Bert Blyleven – A great pitcher, ranks fifth all time in strikeouts (3701), nine all time in shutouts, and 13th all time in innings.  His career record is great (287-250) his ERA is solid (3.31) and has a career ERA of 2.47 in the post season.   If he had better run support, he’d easily have over 300 wins.  He should have been in a long time ago, but for some reason, voters are reluctant to admit him in, yet they are upset over why a lesser pitcher, Jack Morris, whom Blyleven laps in every category and is even better in the post-season than Morris, is not in.  There’s been a rise of support for Blyleven.  Unfortunately, it won’t be enough.

Tim Raines – Raines merits induction, as he was one of the best Leadoff Men in baseball for much of his career.  He hit .294 lifetime, tallied 2605 hits, has a career on base percentage of .385, and scored 1571 times.  People crack on his stolen bases, saying that he was afraid to drop his stolen base percentage when in reality, Raines stole bases only when necessary, not just to pad stats.  He also walked more than he struck out.  However, Raines won’t get his due, as people will again feel he wasn’t as good as Henderson, his rival as far as leadoff men are concerned, plus his cocaine use.  Raines may have lasted even longer in baseball if he hadn’t played much of his career on the hard Astroturf in Montreal.  I feel she should get in.  The voters are divided so far.

Screwed

Lee Smith – A good closer, is number two on the All-Time Saves List (478), and truckload of innings logged in.  His career ERA is good (3.03) and he was usually consistent.  However, what kills Smith is that most people see him as a compiler and is regarded by many to be consistent, but not dominant.  The fact that he only played on two playoff teams and was 0-2 with an 8.44 ERA in the postseason doesn’t help him much.  Still, accumulating 478 saves is amazing (just ask Trevor Hoffman), but unfortunately, it’s looking more and more like Smith will be at the mercy of the Veteran’s committee and won’t be elected by the BBWAA.

Tommy John – Almost as good as Blyleven, in terms of Wins (288-231) and ERA (3.34), John would have been a lock if he had just won 300 wins.  However, people don’t realize that had it not been for the procedure that now bears his name, he wouldn’t even be close to his numbers.  John was a great pitcher for some time.  Why he’s not in is beyond me.

Dave Concepcion – The last member of the Big Red Machine not in the Hall (not counting Pete Rose), Concepcion was probably one of the best shortstops of his time.  Many remember him for his glove work, but his career averages (.267/.322/.357) and his 2326 hits aren’t enough to get him in.  It’s possible that many could point to Ozzie Smith as a possible induction into the Hall of Fame from Concepcion, but unfortunately, I don’t think he’ll get in, leaving him as a option for the veteran’s committee.

Andre Dawson – Blessed with a long, steady career that lasted 21 seasons, Dawson tallied 438 homers, 2774 hits, 314 steals, and was the 1987 NL MVP.  Dawson was a great defender at both right and centerfield and hit with good power.  He didn’t walk much, which is why he’s got a #### OBP, but he does have some favorable stats to some Hall of Famers already in.  He was also one of the classiest men to play the game, another reason why I like him, though that’s beside the point.  But unfortunately, he's seen as a complier, and most likely won't be allowed in anytime soon, which sucks for him.

Alan Trammell – Trammell totaled 2,365 hits, 185 homers, 412 doubles, 236 steals and a World Series MVP to his name.  Those are solid stats and should be Hall of Fame worthy when you consider that Trammell played in an era when shortstops were expected to defend, not him.  However, shortly after Trammell retired, the rise of offensive shortstops, such as Ripken, Jeter, Garciaparra, Rodriguez and others have made his numbers look quite pedestrian when compared to how they will finish.  Because of that, Trammell isn’t getting in, even though he probably should.

Harold Baines – Seemingly ageless, as he played for over 20 seasons, Baines is probably regarded as one of the best hitters in White Sox history.  As a whole, he was a very good hitter for a very long time, with a career .289 Batting Average and totals of 2,866 hits and 384 home runs.  He played on six postseason teams but never won a ring. Not at all shabby.  However, Baines was a terrible defender and never had a monster season.  He also never really took walks either, meaning he’s out.

The Hall of Very Good

Dave Parker – The Cobra has a lot of good credentials.  He’s got 2712 hits, led the league three times in scoring, is in the top 30 of all time in doubles and was the 1978 NL MVP, three Gold Gloves.  He also won two batting titles.   Those are good numbers, but not great ones, and Parker’s cocaine use has turned off several of the more self righteous voters, which means Parker is likely going in that class of Very Good, but not Hall Worthy players. 

Jack Morris – Morris is a somewhat lesser version of Tommy John.  He has pitched well in the postseason, and averaged at least 14 wins per season.  However, Morris has an ERA of 3.90 and going through some of his career numbers, many of his wins are the result of good run support and a strong defensive unit.  I don’t think he should be allowed in, even though many of the old school media are pushing hard for him to go in.  He’d easily be the worst Hall of Fame pitcher ever elected.

Mark McGwire – 500 Home Runs used to guarantee you admission into the hall of fame, but times have changed and McGwire has been made the posterboy of the era.  It’s not fair, but unfortunately, it happens.  He won’t get in, but will likely hang around the ballot.  He could get in during his final year of eligibility. 

Don Mattingly – One of the most popular Yankees in history, a nine-time Gold Glover, a six time All-Star, and the 1985 MVP.  A good man and a great leader, who stuck with the Yankees through the lean years and retired just before all the fun started.  Early in his career, Mattingly seemed like a lock, but lingering back problems would eventually claim his career.  Again, as with another 80’s era first baseman, Will Clark, Mattingly had good career averages (.307-.358-.471), but his overall numbers (222 HR’s, 2153 Hits) aren’t enough to get him in, though he’ll be immortalized in Legends Park sooner or later.  To put it bluntly, Yankee fans, let it go.  Unfortunately, he’ll hang around for the next few years, making this a perennial comment.

Dale Murphy – Murphy has two MVP awards and 398 homers.  But other than that, he's not Hall Worthy.

Chuck Finley – Finely made quite a few All-Star teams based on raw win totals alone, but his control was average and his ERA doesn’t fairly show that he could be god-awful a great deal.  He did have a reputation as an innings eater, but other than that, what else can you say except that he’s a slightly above average pitcher who likely would be vastly overpaid if he played today and isn’t worthy of Hall of Fame consideration.

Robb Nen – A former Ranger Draft Pick, Nen was traded to Florida for Cris Carpenter (the bad one) and became one of the better closers in baseball, finishing his career with 314 saves, a 45-42 record, a career 2.98 ERA and a WHIP of 1.213.  However, that’s not hall worthy, meaning Nen is out.

No Chance In Hell

Chuck Knoblauch – Knoblauch certainly looked like a Hall of Fame caliber player back when he was in Minnesota.  However, a neurosis that affected his glovework and eventually his hitting ended his career.  Many felt that the pressure of playing in New York finally got to him.  However, the fact is that what’s done is done and in the end, Knoblauch doesn’t deserve to be bronzed in Cooperstown.  His mention in the Mitchell Report will also mean he falls off the ballot.

Todd Stottlemyre–An okay pitcher for the most part, I remember him mostly from his brief time with the Texas Rangers.  He shouldn’t be on here.  Who screens these things?

Rod Beck –Sorry, I know Beck is very much beloved by many fans, but realistically, he had a 7 year run in which he was good, after which he flamed out spectacularly.  This may be his first and only time you’ll see him on the ballot.

David Justice – Justice is going to be one and done on the ballot.  He was good for a long time, but was never great.  His numbers (1571 Hits, 305 HR, .279 Career BA) just aren’t special enough, though he’ll likely get credit for all of his playoff experience.  But, to be quite honest, he just doesn’t belong on the ballot.

Travis Fryman – Fryman played for a long time, both in Detroit and in Cleveland, and was an All-Star five times, but for the most part he was just a solid contributor and nothing more. 

Brady Anderson – Another solid contributor, nothing more, Anderson shouldn’t be on the ballot.

Shawon Dunston – Dunston had a decent start to his career, but injuries and ineffectiveness turned him into a very good bench player for the most part.  He was also named as one of “Barry’s Guys” in the book Love Me, Hate Me, who defended Eric Davis, who was being berated by Bonds and the time, only to shut him up by grabbing Davis’ World Series ring and asking him “Have one of these?”

Jose Rijo – Okay, but never great.  Out.

This is a quick update to Tuesday's On The Block.  Today's On The Block will be posted shortly...

On The Block - Johan Santana (again...)

Well, the trade acquistions of Delmon Young and Brendan Harris have changed what exactly the Twinkies will want in return for Santana and, subsequently, changes the amount of bidders available.  The Twins will now likely look for a centerfielder as well as near ready starting pitching, and positional players.  Harris is merely a stopgap shortstop and would actually be better at third base, assuming that the Twins go with Alexi Casilla and not the awful Nick Punto and second.

Here's who is going to likely not have a match:

• Texas Rangers – Not that Texas was ever really in it, but this kinda kills any offer the Rangers could send.  A package could be built around Hurley and Salty, but Kinsler wouldn't be as attractive. 
• New York Mets - The Mets now have no shot to even interest the Twins.  The best thing they could do would be to try and acquire one of the Twins' lesser arms for an outfielder, but there isn't anything the Mets have that could interest Minnesota in any way.

That leaves four teams that realistically could trade for Santana, three of them the same from Tuesday, one of them new....

Potential Suitors – In Alphabetical Order

• Boston Red Sox – Boston actually now would make the most sense, as they could send the Twins a good looking package of Jed Lowrie, a shortstop, Jon Lester, a ready made pitcher, Coco Crisp, a centerfielder, and likely a fourth prospect, possbly Brandon Moss, another outfielder, which could DH for the Twins, or something else.
• Los Angeles Angels – Artie Moreno and Co. look like their willing to go all in this offseason, with the acquisitions of Garland and Hunter.  It would be tough to see who Santana would replace, though it would likely come at the expense of Jered Weaver, a pitcher who is nowhere near as good as he's made out to be.  The Angels could offer Minnesota a package of Reggie Willits, who could man center and bat leadoff, Brandon Wood or Erick Aybar, both of whom can play shortstop, Weaver, who could slot in right away, and likely a fourth prospect, maybe Mark Sweeney, a power hitting first baseman in the lower minors.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – The Dodgers MIGHT be able to make a deal now.  Since the outfield is now out of player, the Dodgers would likely have to center a deal around Andy LaRoche, their top third base prospect, Chin-Lung Hu, their top shortstop prospect, as well as Clayton Kershaw and one more player.  That would be too rich for me. 
• New York Yankees – The one team that the Young trade screws over the most is the Yankees, who now not only have to include Melky Cabrera in a trade, but would also have to include Robinson Cano, along with Kennedy and Hughes for a deal to work.  And before the Yankee hate mail comes it, there aren't ANY positional prospects in the Yankees' minors aside from Austin Jackson, thanks to a lot of pitching centered drafts.

If I Had To Pick A Deal Right Now...Traded To The Boston Red Sox for SS Jed Lowrie, LHP Jon Lester, OF Brandon Wood and CF Coco Crisp.

Will A Trade Happen - Yes.  The Twins are nowhere near close to competing in a very stiff AL Central and the window with this current nucleus closed about two years ago, making a rebuilding effort long delayed.  At the very least, the trades of Santana and Joe Nathan would allow the Twins to get enough young pieces that the farm has failed to produce to put together a nice, young talent core to mount a challenge to the Indians and Tigers in two years.

Well, I'm not the first to comment on the Matt Garza, Delmon Young trade, but I hope that I'll give you all something to check out here.  Here's how each piece of the deal ranks:

Delmon Young (RF) - Young is one of the most high touted baseball talents of the past ten years.  He's drawn a lot of comparisons to Vlad Guerrero, though he hasn't hit for the power just yet.  Still, he's young and has got Hall of Fame potential if he lives up to it and all in all is the best piece exchanged here.  All in all, it's surprising to see Young dealt.  Maybe it's the makeup issues that Tampa finally tired of.  Maybe they know something we don't know.  But all in all, Minnesota makes out well for themselves.

Matt Garza (RHP) - I'm a big Garza fan and this is possibly the biggest impact piece of the deal.  Garza has the potential to be a very good Number 2 or 3 starter and slots in perfectly for Tampa behind Scott Kazmir and James Shields, giving Tampa it's first stable rotation since...ever!  

Jason Bartlett (SS) - A solid defensive shortstop with a good enough bat, Barlett is a big upgrade over Brendan Harris, who's better as a utilityman or as a second baseman.  Barlett will give Tampa a solid infield in the meantime, as they have a solid shortstop prospect in Reid Brignac that is coming up quickly. 

Eduardo Morlan (RHP) - Regarded as a future closer, Morlan is one of the better relief prospects in baseball.  He's got a mid 90's fastball that touches 98 and compliments it with a #### slider.  WIth some refinement, Tampa could find a potential match for Boston's Jonathan Papelbon, and no, that's no #### either.

Brendan Harris (SS) - Harris is a cheaper, lower quality version of Bartlett.  He's a decent defender with a little pop that is probably a better option to be placed over at second or third base, either place he'd offer a lot better option than the gastly Nick Punto.

Jason Pridie (CF) - A bit of a wildcard here, Pridie was originally taken two years ago by Minnesota in the Rule 5 Draft, but he didn't stick.  Pridie's got leadoff potential with some pop and could probably evolve into a poor man's version of Torii Hunter in time, or become a very good fourth outfielder, provided he stays health.

All in all, a good trade for both sides.  Tampa sacrifices a bit of offense in order to greatly improve at two other positions overall.  Of course, part of that is also depending a lot on Rocco Baldelli returning to form, at least until one of Tampa's other top outfield prospects is ready for the show.  In the meantime, the Twins gain a potential boost in the middle of the order, though they do lose a bit of heat in the middle of the rotaiotn with Garza gone, leaving a lot of command and control types after Santana and Liriano.  But really, it's a small quibbling.  When you have a chance to add a potential once in a generation bat in Young, you take the ball and run away.

Grade For Both Sides - A

Alright, just a quick rundown on the Santana Sweepstakes.

On The Block – Johan Santana

The reason for this?  Why not?

The Why:  Santana is entering his walk year and the Twins have already made it known that they won’t give him Barry Zito’s deal to keep him, mostly because of owner Carl Pohland, who one of the cheapest owners in sports, and they may want to see if they can acquire talent for him to help the club in the long run, as the system is starting to run a little dry thanks to some over-conservative drafting.

The Rumored Asking Price:  Three to four good prospects, that are either ready to start immediately or are close to.

Can A Trade Be Done:  Yes, provided that a window for a contract extension is granted to the acquiring team.  Otherwise, no team is going to give up a top of low cost talent in exchange for a one year rental.

The Good:  Santana is perhaps the best pitcher in baseball and could be the ace of ANY rotation.  He’s dominant, has proven to be healthy, and can pitch in the AL and has done so in many of the best hitters parks in the league.

Potential Hang-ups:

• Money – It’s going to be costly to extend Santana, who could be baseball’s first $20 million pitcher.  That’s a LOT of money and many couldn’t afford him. 
• Prospects – The Twins want high ceiling talent and a lot of it, which is going to make things difficult, as many teams simply don’t have farm systems that deep to send the necessary talent back.  So, that limits the amount of people that are legitimate suitors even further. 

Potential Suitors – In Alphabetical Order

• Boston Red Sox – Ummm, Boston apparently would be interested in Santana (but it makes no sense really, as they have a solid rotation already that is very cost effective), but they would likely offer the Twins a package of Jon Lester, Coco Crisp and probably infield prospect Jed Lowrie, plus a player to be mutually decided on.  The problem is that they would only give up Lester and would balk if asked for Ellsbury or Buchholz. 
• Los Angeles Dodgers – The Dodgers certainly have the ammunition to try and make a deal, with them offering a package that would include Andy LaRoche, their top third base prospect, Andre Ethier, who could start in left field, Matt Kemp, who would start in right, and likely Chad Billingsley, the top lefty prospect in the minors.  That is a hell of a package and would give the Twins immediate bonuses to three of their lineup spots while giving them a stud pitching prospect as well.  The problem is that Dodgers owner Frank McCourt might not like the price tag it would take to extend Santana. 
• New York Mets – Omar Minaya seems determined to make a huge splash, and has said he’s saving his trade chips for a front of the rotation pitcher.  There’s just one problem:  most of the Mets’ prospects suck.  Philip Humber and Mike Pelfrey have had their stocks take hits and they lack many other positional players to send back to Minnesota.  The best thing they COULD do would be to see if the Twins still want to do that Matt Garza-Carlos Gomez swap.  I’d be all over that in a second.
• New York Yankees – The Yankees are sure to be in on Santana, and apprently, after the Game 4 loss to the Indians, they immediately called the Twins asking what it would take to build a package around Chein Ming Wang to get Santana.  This was purely rumor, but any deal involving Santana would likely involve New York.  Wang wouldn’t be attractive to the Twins as he’s going to be getting expensive short and he really isn’t what they’re looking for.  They’d likely ask for a package centered around Melky Cabrera and one of the Phil Hughes/Joba Chamberlain duet, with Robinson Cano thrown in for good measure.  The Yankees would likely balk and try to see if Ian Kennedy would get the job done, after which they’re promptly be laughed at and hung up on.  That’s really how it would go down, as New York is so protective even of their worst prospects that it’s hard to get a deal done.  However, with Hank Steinbrenner spilling the beans about the negotiations to get him, this deal may have legs after all.
• Texas Rangers – Texas certainly has the ammunition to make a deal, with a package likely having to center around Eric Hurley, their top pitching prospect, Ian Kinsler, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia, which would allow them to use Mauer at DH more often.  It would be a good trade package, but wouldn’t be enough to compare with what other teams may offer. 

If I Had To Pick A Deal Right Now...Traded To The New York Yankees For RHP Phil Hughes, RHP Ian Kennedy, CF Melky Cabrera and OF Austin Jackson

Will A Deal Ultimately Happen – Yes.  Frankly, the Twins could see themselves as being able to bounce back in contention with the return of Francisco Liriano, but let’s be reasonable.  The Twins also have a lot of holes and their owners’ reluctance to spend money means they can’t buy themselves the necessary fixes to help remedy the problem.  As a result, they’ve got to move him now to be able to at least reload with their current nucleus.

I'd stay the hell away from the Twins' free agents, especially since their market is going to shoot through the roof tomorrow, when agents can discuss dollars and cents.

Torii Hunter and Carlos Silva are looking to cash in, Hunter by reputation, Silva by scarcity, and both will be overpaid greatly and will likely be looked at in the same way we look at the Jason Giambi/Carl Pavano deals.

Hunter is coming off of a career year and will be picked up by a team making a splash and wanting Hunter's mix of attitude and charisma on their team. 

But he's not an elite centerfielder anymore.  He's never hit for a lot of power and he's not a run producer in the heart of the lineup.  And worse, his defense is center is beginnng to degrade, thanks to the numerous injuries and surgeries he's had on his legs.  Baseball Prospectus' PETCOA system has Hunter becoming a part time player by 2010.  That's not a great idea for the amount of dollars Hunter is looking for. 

As for Silva, he's a groundball pitcher that is young and entering a market that is lacking in decent pitching.  He'll have takers needing a innings eating starter, such as the Mets, Tigers, Reds and Dodgers, just to name a few.  But he's going to get Number Two starter money for a guy that's been a Number Three at best and a Number Four for his career.

Plus, to compound the reasons on Hunter, he's a Type A free agent and unless your pick is draft protected, he's going to cost you your Number One pick, not a wise idea unless you have a Type A on your team that won't be back, allowing you to recoup the pick.

Both guys are going to get ridiculously overpaid and both will likely put up decent numbers in the beginning of the deal.  But in the long run, both are like to disappoint and will break someone's heart.

The Red Sox Top 15 will be up later, right now I have something that just set me off that I saw on Sportscenter (had no choice, was at the Gym and it was either that or reruns of ER.  And I hate ER.)

Steve Phillips was asked for his recommandations to the Dodgers on how he would make their team a World Series contender.  After hearing him talk, I quickly wondered what reality he was talking about. 

Here are Phillips' takes, more or less, and my own, in full unedited glory.

Step 1 – Trade for Miguel Cabrera or Sign Alex Rodriguez

First off, I will credit Phillips with correctly identifying the Dodgers' need for power in the lineup.  However, this is the wrong way to go with it.  If you take Phillips’ later assumptions into account, it’s going to have to be Rodriguez or nothing, as the Marlins currently are assembling a list of players that they are targeting from different organizations that they would want in return for the potential Hall of Fame hopeful.  One of those is almost certainly going to be Clayton Kershaw, a young lefty that is going to be as good as Red Sox pitcher Clay Buchholz. 

Kershaw would have to be sent back in any deal that for Cabrera, that's a given.  It was Kershaw that was a sticking point in the Dodgers' failed negotiations this past summer for Mark Teixeira.  

As for A-Rod, he'll cost nothing but money, but it'll be a WHOLE LOT of money. 

My Solution - Why Not Settle With What you have in house?  The Dodgers have a perfectly good third base prospect in Andy LaRoche, who has hit the batting line of .295/.525/.901 in the minors and has averaged 18 Homers and 61 RBIs in an average of 90 games per season.  Why not give him a full season to prove that he can hit?  He's a lot cheaper than Rodriguez or Cabrera and would give a power boost to the lineup as well.

And if you must get rid of LaRoche, go after a cheaper first baseman to save some money for what is about to come next.  The Rangers would be happ to give up Hank Blalock straight up for LaRoche.  The Pirates would be willing to give up Freddy Sanchez if it meant getting LaRoche. 

The only possible way of getting Cabrera might be asking the Marlins if they'd be receptive to a deal of a paid for Juan Pierre (solving their centerfield issue), LaRoche (solving third while improving the infield defense) and including Andre Ethier and Jonathan Broxton.  That woudl be the only way I could see a deal for Cabrera working, though I would prefer to just use LaRoche.

Step 2 – Sign Andruw Jones, Aaron Rowand, or Torii Hunter to play centerfield and move Juan Pierre to left

Yikes.  Here's another bad idea.

Pierre is a terrible outfielder and has a weak arm as well.  He's probably one of the worst contracts signed in the Ned Colletti era. 

Philips said that acquriing one of the three centerfielders mentioned above would not only improve the offense, but also improve the defense as well.

Here's an idea, which would work with Philips' plan and would still have the desired effect.

Trade Pierre for whoever you can get, preferrably a reliever or a swingman to help the pen and the rotation if necessary.  Second, play Etheir (provided he's not traded, of course) in left, and play Matt Kemp, a blossoming young monster, in right.  If you get Andruw Jones, which would work, in center, congradulations.  You just improved the outfield defense and upgraded the offense to boot.

Step 3 – Trade For Johan Santana

Ooookay, where to start.

Provided you haven't already traded Kershaw, going after Santana creates more problems than it does solve any.

First off, you would immediately open a hole in right field, as it would likely require a package of Kershaw, Kemp and LaRoche to get Santana, even if you do get him to agree to a contract extension. 

Guess what, you just opened a hole in right and third base.

You could play Ethier at right, but I like his bat better in left field.  And it would make the necessary the addition of a Rodriguez and a Andruw Jones in order to fill those holes, leaving you with a much more expensive roster which wasn't necessary in the first place.

The Dodgers could enter next season by making only one foray into the free agent market and that would be it:

Starting Lineup

• Furcal (SS)

• Martin (C)

• Kent (2B)

• Loney (1B)

• Kemp (RF)

• Jones (CF) - Brought In Via Free Agency

• LaRoche (3B)

• Ethier (LF)

Rotation

• Penny (RHP)

• Lowe (RHP)

• Billingsley (RHP)

• Schmidt (RHP)

• Wolf (RHP) - Brought Back

Contracts Traded For Bullpen Help - Pierre (CF) to Marlins For Kevin Gregg (RHP), Nomar Garciaparra (1B) To Texas For Akinori Otsuka (RHP)

And there you have it.  I'm done.  That team I just put together should win 88 games, maybe 90 if the team stays healthy and the youngsters develop.  There was no need to go spend foolishly on several players that may not have been worth it.  That's the reason why you have a farm system.  So you can eventually have young, cheaper, higher upside pieces to build around and eventually contend with.

And all without having to mortgage my best pieces in the farm and to keep the payroll more or less reasonable in the long run.

I'm beginning to understand why Phillips was tossed out so quickly by the Mets.

He just sucked.