Well, with pitcher's and catchers reporting soon, it's time for me to dust off the hat and start picking teams at random to preview. Hopefully, I'll go through all 30 teams before the beginning of the season, if life doesn't get in the way.
The Marlins may set a record for being the cheapest team in the modern era.
Don’t get me wrong, the Marlins are a victim of their market, but really, we should accept 2007 as probably a step back, which is inevitable with a young team. However, this team has been gutted of it's most powerful offensive threat and the loss of Willis, which negligible right now, doesn't exactly instill confidence in the rest of the rotation, especially those nearing arbitration. Still, this team has some potential to be a Wild Card contender in the future, especially if some of the arms in their system continue to blossom.
Starting Rotation
Scott Olsen (LHP) – Olsen fits the old saying of “million dollar arm, ten cent head.” There is no question that when Olsen is on, he is perfectly capable of being a Number Two starter. However, whether he keeps his head together enough for him to reach his immense potential is another issue altogether. Florida looked into the possibility of moving him during the off-season, but interest was minimal. They’ll have to hitch their fortunes to him and hope he’s able to behave.
Sergio Mitre (RHP) – Mitre has turned out into a pretty decent middle of the rotation starter. He doesn’t have any offering that is any better than average, but overall he’s a decent pitcher that does a solid job of taking the ball every fifth day.
Andrew Miller (LHP) – Miller, who came over in the Cabrera-Willis swap, has the potential to become a dominant ace of the rotation. He has good size along with a big fastball, which 93-94 mph, touching 97 with plenty of natural sink. He also has a good slider and a changeup. However, command has been an issue with Miller and his changeup and slider can be inconsistent. He’s very much a project that probably should be in the minors, but won’t be due to the Marlins feeling the need to justify the trade.
Mark Hendrickson (LHP) – Hendrickson was an adequate swingman in LA, but other than that he’s merely back of the rotation roster filler here.
Ricky Nolasco (RHP) – Nolasco is another arm obtained via trade, but he’s more or less a middle of the rotation guy. The big issue is keeping him healthy enough to contribute, but if he can stay off the DL, he should be a quality third starter.
Bullpen
Kevin Gregg (Closer) - Officially the most expensive Marlin (trade him!), Gregg enters the year as the first returning closer for the fish in years.
Taylor Tankersley (Setup Man) – It's looking more and more like Tankersley is going to be a long term setup man instead of a closer, which is a shame as I think he'd be a solid one. Still, setup men are valuable and he'll help the fish either way.
Matt Lindstrom (RHP) – Another capable setup man, Lindstrom is likely going to help in the setup duties with Tankersley.
Eulogio De La Cruz (RHP) – A key piece of the Tiger's trade, De La Cruz appeals to the velocity #### of Florida, as he can hit 100 mph with his fastball and off-set it with a average curveball. He's easily got the potential to be a dynamite closer if he could just get his command under control..
Rick VandenHurk (RHP) - VandenHurk will likely remain as a swingman, making a spot start here or too, which is good as he's stretched to what he can do as a starter.
Reynel Pinto (LHP) – A dependable lefty, Pinto is also likely going to be the only one unless Hendrickson plays his way out of the rotation.
Justin Miller (RHP) – Miller should be the final piece of what should be a quality pen.
Starting Lineup
Hanley Ramirez (SS) – Overlooked at times because he plays in Florida, Ramirez is an excellent blend of speed and power. The biggest problem is that Ramirez is overmatched at shortstop and he’s probably the worst defensive shortstop in the majors. He’s very much like BJ Upton, a physical freak that simply can’t handle the infield and would be best off in the outfield.
Dan Uggla (2B) – Uggla actually improved last season, walking a bit more while hitting for more power than he did last year. Strikeouts and defense are still an issue, but overall Uggla is a nice little player to have and is a solid fit here at the second spot.
Jeremy Hermida (RF) – Lost in last season was Hermida's blossoming into a star. Underrated by many, Hermida is a solid middle of the order bat that can hit for power and average so long as he stays on the field. As he puts his injury plagued rookie year behind him, I think he'll begin to get notice.
Mike Jacobs (1B) – An average first baseman, Jacobs hits for some power and is a competant bat, but overall he's not a star, more of a solid contributor that is convient while he's cheap.
Dallas McPherson (3B) – Still blessed with the potential for 30 home run power, McPherson hasn’t been able to make the most of his chances, with injuries and a balky back short circuiting him whenever he got the opportunity to be the starter back in Anaheim. The Angels finally cut their losses with him and non-tendered him at the deadline. Florida is hoping to cash in on McPherson, hoping that his health issues have finally cleared up. If they have, Florida could have a Carlos Pena-type bargain on their hands, though still not enough to make fans forget Miguel Cabrera.
Josh Willingham (LF) - Another solid contributor, Willingham may actually see some time as a catcher again with the acquisiton of Luis Gonzalez, which would make him less of a average player and more of a solid regular that will make a couple of all star teams. Overall, I like his bat and his overall consistent approach at the plate, but I would like to see him behind the bag. After all, what have the Marlins got to lose?
Cameron Maybin (CF) – Maybin was the key part of the trade with Detroit. He's blessed with tools galore, as he has excellent bat speed, good raw power, good range in center with a strong arm and good speed. However, he shouldn't be starting with the Marlins,a s he's still very raw in all aspects of the game and would struggle mightily. Unfortuantely, he'll likely be there opening day.
Mike Rabelo (C) – Rabelo served as Ivan Rodriguez’s caddy last season and is a solid game caller with a good glove. And that’s pretty much all he is, as he’s stretched as an everyday catcher.
Bench
Matt Trenor (C) – Strictly a backup, Trenor is now the longest tenured Marlin on the squad. Still, it’s good to be him considering he lives in a nice city and is married to a smoking hot wife.
Jorge Cantu (INF) – The former Devil Ray was a washout with the Reds and now will try to come out of obscurity with Florida's other team. Cantu's got some nice power on him, but little value elsewhere.
Jose Castillo (INF) – Castillo really isn't great anywhere and is likely only going to see utility duty.
Luis Gonzalez (LF/1B) – Gonzalez shifts to a mentor/backup role, where he'll likely see some time in left and first base, depending on the needs of the team. I like Gonzalez being a full time starter in left, while allowing Josh Willingham to catch. It would be a much stronger offensive unit, though defensively it would be rather rough at first.
Alejandro De Aza (OF) – Fourth outfielder with little offensive value. That's about it.
Disabled List
Josh Johnson (RHP) - Johnson went down early with Tommy John surgery and likely won't be ready till roughly May or so. Johnson is a fully capable Number Two starter when he's right, but it'll take him until at least July or early August to get back to the promising young pitcher he was at the end of 2006.
Anibal Sanchez (RHP) - Sanchez also shows flashes of greatness, but shoulder surgery killed his year. Now, he'll likely be held out until perhaps May or so. Sanchez also has a Number Two starter ceiling when healthy and both him and Johnson would knock back Mitre to the number four spot in the rotation and Hendrickson and Nolasco into the bullpen.
Minor League Notables
Gaby Hernandez (RHP) -Hernandez has middle of the rotation horse potential, though none of his offerings are really plus pitches. Still, he's valuable to have and will greatly benefit from that large ballpark. He'll likely make his debut in late August.
Dallas Trahern (RHP) - Another pitcher from the Tiger deal, Trahern is a groundball machine without a dominant offering, but still, a groundballer with lots of stamina makes for a good combination with a solid defense. He's also likely to make his debut late in the year.
Final Anaylsis
The Fish will likely be better than expected, but in reality that may not be saying much. As Sanchez and Johnson get worked back in, the Fish should improve themselves with more experience and hopefully more promise from some of their gambles on the free agent market (McPherson.) Overall, this is an interesting team going foward, but management does need to show a commitment and start extending some of their players in order to continue taking the necessary steps foward, and not just continue dismantling the team every three years because it becomes more expensive than the luxery tax subsidies.
And now, back to your regularly scheduled program...
On The Block – Miguel Cabrera
Just to address the other sexy name on the block.
The Why: A farm system with some depth, but with a lot of graduations, an ownership unwilling to invest more than what they get in the luxury tax, and a assortment of problems at the ownership level results in the Marlins being unable to afford their superstar third baseman and potential MVP candidate. The Marlins recognize they have holes in their team that they weren’t able to fill in the fire sale two years ago and are going to try and jettison their most attractive piece in order to fill them.
The Rumored Asking Price: The Marlins are demanding FOUR players with 0-3 years in service time and all have to be studs. Ouch. That’s hard enough for any team to handle and the Marlins have already made it clear who they want from each team, no if’s, ands, or buts about it.
Can A Trade Be Done: Iffy. The Marlins have acquired a lot of talent as well as a reputation for being difficult to negotiate with. They are going to demand the very best players for Cabrera and mean to get him, but what they’re asking for is going to scare off a lot of people.
The Good: Cabrera has drawn many comparisons to Manny Ramirez in terms of hitting ability and power. He could be a potential Hall Of Famer if he continues to improve and is already better than several superstar players were at his age, including Saint Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez.
Potential Hang-ups:
Prospects – The amount and quality of prospects that Florida is going to want makes a trade very prohibitive for many teams, even those with the prospect depth to do so.
Health – People are wondering if Cabrera’s weight issues will continue to be a problem, limiting his long-term value.
Money – Any team that is looking to acquire Cabrera would want a negotiating window to extend him beyond his two remaining years. The problem is, the Marlins have no intention of granting one, meaning it’s a buyer beware proposition.
Potential Suitors – In Alphabetical Order
Chicago White Sox – The White Sox were aggressively going after Cabrera, offering a package of 3B Josh Fields, CF Jerry Owens, LHP Gio Gonzalez and reportedly LHP Jon Danks. That probably won’t cut it, as the Marlins seem to be going after superstar prospects and nothing less.
Los Angeles Angels – The Angels already look like they’re gearing up for a Cabrera trade, filling a rotation hole by the recent addition of Jon Garland. They can now offer Florida a package that includes Ervin Santana, who fits the service time requirements. However, the Angels would also need to add in 2B Howie Kendrick, top pitching prospect Nick Adenhart, OF Reggie Willits or one of Mike Napoli or Jeff Mathis catching tandem. Reportedly, Adenhart and Kendrick are the sticking points, as the Angels are willing to give up one, but not both. Also, the Marlins aren't too high on Santana.
Los Angeles Dodgers – The Dodgers also can offer a good package, maybe even better than the Angels. Top pitching prospect Clayton Kershaw would have to be included in the deal, as well as 3B prospect Andy LaRoche, RHP Jonathan Broxton and one of either 1B James Loney or RF Matt Kemp. That’s a hell of a price to pay with Kershaw alone, let alone the rest of the young talent on the Roster. The Dodgers look like they’re all about it, but to be quite honest, I think I would rather pass.
New York Yankees – Yup, the Yankees apparently are still in it, looking to move Cabrera to first base. A package would have to be centered around CF Melky Cabrera, RHP Phil Hughes, and 2B Robinson Cano, which the Yankees would balk at, then state publicly that they’re waiting for the market to go down, all the while wondering why the Marlins are simply giving Cabrera to them.
San Francisco Giants – The Giants looked into getting Cabrera early in the off-season, but they lacked positional players to send back to Florida. Even then, would it really be worth sacrificing \either Matt Cain or Tim Lincecum?
Texas Rangers – The Rangers have the talent to make a trade, but the Marlins would insist on RHP Eric Hurley, C Jarrod Saltalamacchia, 2B German Duran and SS Joaquin Arias (allowing them to move Hanley Ramirez to centerfield.) That is a VERY high price to pay and the Rangers have made it known that they’re rebuilding, not looking to gut the farm. This really is only out there to shut up those emails about whether or not the Rangers have a shot at Cabrera.
If I Had To Pick A Deal Right Now…Traded To The Los Angeles Angels For RHP Ervin Santana, RHP Nick Adenhart, OF Reggie Willits, 2B Howie Kendrick.
Will A Deal Ultimately Happen– Yes. The Angels are up to something and that something is likely Cabrera, as all of their moves this off-season look more and more like their gearing up to trade parts to gain him. However, the Marlins also need to realize that they can’t keep doing this, trading talent away for more prospects because they’re getting expensive. Ultimately, this is a symptom of a cancer at the top and Jeffrey Loria needs to address it with one of two solutions: move the team or sell it to someone willing to put money into it. Because, quite honestly, this can’t work for much longer.
The Yankee Farm System Preview will be up shortly. But first, time to deal with a surprise move, as the White Sox have apparently traded Jon Garland to the Angels for OrlandoCabrera. And honestly, I think that the White Sox have done themselves a disservice, while the Angels are positioning themselves for another move.
Garland was worth a lot on this market and could have netted the White Sox a good collection of parts to help rebuild themselves for the long term. For example, a trade with the Rangers could have netted them a shortstop prospect (Joaquin Arias), a pitching prospect (can't think of one right now), and another prospect. A trade to another team, such as the Dodgers could have netted them Andre Ethier, Chin-hui Tsao, and another player. But instead, they trade for a good defensive shortstop and nothing else. If anything, this impacts the rotation severely, as they will now field a rotation of the following:
The White Sox will surely miss Garland's durability and consistency, and for the most part will be going with a cheaper, but less proven rotation. True, this move could lead to the discovery of one of their arms being able to take the next step foward, like Gonzalez or Broadway, but it is still a very short term move.
All in all, it should be an excellant defensive infield, but it doesn't do much to push the White Sox ahead of Detroit, Minnesota or Cleveland, and at the most, pushes them ahead of Kansas City.
White Sox Grade - C
As for the Angels, they now have an embarressment of riches, with a potential rotation of the following:
John Lackey (RHP)
Kelvim Escobar (RHP)
Jered Weaver (RHP)
Jon Garland (RHP)
Joe Saunders (LHP)/Ervin Santana (RHP)
This gives them an opportunity to now trade for a big bat, with Santana likely being the victim. Truth be told, he has better stuff than Saunders, but he just doesn't have the command over it. And, with the acquisition of Garland and the rise of Nick Adenhart, their best pitching prospect, time has simply run out for the Angels to try and fix him.
Theoretically, the Angels could put a big bat in the lineup by using Santana as bait. They can easily place Figgins or Erick Aybar at shortstop and not suffer much of a loss in offense there, but third base is a hole and could use an upgrade, although they could simply just promote Brandon Wood to play third and see if the kid can hit.
There aren't a lot of options out there at third base that are available. They could try and deal for Hank Blalock, but it seems unlikely they'd do a deal within the division.
What this could symbolize, however, is the beginnings of a push to acquire Miguel Cabrera. The Angels now have a spot cleared for him and they could offer a package of Santana, Reggie WIllits (who can handle center), Wood and a fourth prospect, perhaps Terry Evans, though no doubt the Marlins will demand Howie Kendrick thrown in as well.
Overall, I like the trade from the Angels' standpoint, as they give up nothing and now can get to work on adding that big bat to add to the lineup, giving them a two year window to own the division until Seattle and Texas are ready to begin their respective campains to knock them out.
The Marlins have managed to rebuild twice after conducting firesales thanks to their deep pool of minor league talent, both drafted and obtained via trades. However, that pool has dried up in the past two years, and not because of the fact that the Marlins have fallen behind in the draft, but rather because they’ve had so much talent graduate to the major league level that it’s left the system very much depleted. There are several prospects to take note of, but unfortunately, the upper levels of the system remain barren due to the depletion of talent, as I discovered during my trip to see the Albuquerque Isotopes. That’s not to say that there isn’t fruit on the vine, it’s just very raw right now.
Marlins Top 15
1 – Chris Volstad (RHP)
DOB: 9/23/86
Drafted: 1st Round, 2005, Florida High School
2008 Club: Carolina Mudcats (Double A)
Height/Weight: 6-7/190
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Volstad is being groomed for a possible rotation spot come 2009 when Dontrelle Willis books. In fact, he was being considered to being promoted for a September Call Up until the Marlins thought the better of it, possibly because it would have started his options and arbitration clock earlier than necessary.
The Good: A imposing 6-7, Volstad is able to get great sink on his fastball, which clocks in at 89-93 mph, and is able to generate a lot of groundballs. He’s got two solid secondary pitches and his control overall is excellent.
The Bad: Volstad hasn’t added any velocity or mass for that matter, which is odd considering how huge he is. He’s also very hittable, and his strikeout rates are disappointing.
Projection: Average. Volstad is the most polished of the 2005 first-rounders, and many within the organization feel that he's the best of the group, and thus the one most likely to reach Double-A ahead of schedule. For that to happen, he'll need to make a number of adjustments, but the Marlins think that more of the groundballs will turn into outs as he moves up. While it's unlikely for everything to click at once, at the same time all of the expected changes are reasonable expectations based on Volstad's talent.
What He Can Be: A Major League Innings Eater, But A Number Three Or Four Starter
2008 Course Of Action: Volstad really didn’t do much in his limited time in Carolina, so I think he’ll likely be back to start the season. However, the Marlins will probably have him finish the year in Albuquerque, where his groundball tendencies would play well in that ballpark. Also, it will give me a chance to scout him personally. Woot!
2 – Gaby Hernandez (RHP)
DOB: 5/21/86
Drafted: 3rd round, 2004, Florida High School (Mets)
2008 Club: Albuquerque Isotopes (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 6-3/210
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: One of the big parts of the Paul LoDuca trade, Hernandez has solid stuff and is young enough to continue growing. While his overall numbers at Carolina are somewhat disappointing, he’s still got a bright future.
The Good: Hernandez has a good three pitch mix on him, with a 91-93 mph fastball, curveball, and changeup. He displays solid command and control, allowing him to spot the ball well.
The Bad: The curveball can become very hittable against lefties and despite his age, he’s really not going to get any better than he is. Lastly, he can be flyball friendly, which makes him meat at certain NL Ballparks.
Projection: Low. Hernandez is nearly ready and he should benefit from
What He Can Be: A middle of the rotation starter.
2008 Course Of Action: Despite a overall disappointing record at Carolina, Hernandez will likely be sent to Albuquerque, where he had better be able to keep his ERA below 5. If he runs off a stretch of good starts, he could get a call in a much more diminished Florida rotation.
3 – Sean West (LHP)
DOB: 6/15/86
Drafted: 1st round, 2005, Louisiana High School
2008 Club: Greenville Grasshoppers (Low A)
Height/Weight: 6-8/200
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: After producing solid results in his Low A season, West wound up getting hurt and had to undergo Tommy John Surgery, costing him the year.
The Good: A towering lefthander, West threw in the 91-94 mph with the potential of adding more mass, his height giving him plenty of sink on his heater.
The Bad: Even before the injury, West’s biggest problem was that his secondary offerings were below average pitches, making him similar to Mike Pelfrey in that he’s a one pitch pitcher. He also lost velocity in later innings.
Projection: High. The sky is still the limit on West and if he can get back to where he was and be able to improve his pitches, the Marlins have another homegrown lefty ace once again.
What He Can Be: A Dominant Top Of The Rotation Starter
2008 Course Of Action: High. West's ceiling is greater than any of the arms from Florida's 2005 first-round pitcher-fest, yet the gap between what he is and what he can be is significant. Like all of them, a huge season is possible as they move en masse to the pitching-friendly Florida State League.
4 – Ryan Tucker (RHP)
DOB: 12/6/86
Drafted: 1st round, 2005, California High School
2008 Club: Carolina Mudcats (Double A)
Height/Weight: 6-2/190
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Yet another young starter in the Florida system, Tucker looks to be a potential stud in the rotation if he continues to improve. Of all of the Florida arms, I like Tucker the most.
The Good: The best raw arm in the Marlins’ system, Tucker has a low to mid 90’s heater that touches 98 and has a plus slider to compliment it. He also has the makings o####ood changeup.
The Bad: He can be very inconsistent, which leads to his overall disappointing numbers. His command also comes and goes.
Projection: High. Tucker's biggest thing holding him back is the fact that his breaking pitches are lagging behind him. Once he gets them going, he’s going to rise quickly.
What He Can Be: A Number 3 Starter, Maybe A Number 2 in the Future
2008 Course Of Action: Tucker will likely be headed to Carolina this next season, where the Marlins hope he’ll be able to make some progress on harnessing his off-speed stuff.
5 – Matt Dominguez (3B)
DOB: 8/28/89
Drafted: 1st round, 2007, California High School
2008 Club: Gulf Coast Marlins (Rookie)
Height/Weight: 6-2/190
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: The first positional prospect on the list, Dominguez held out until the final hour, when he finally signed for slot money. Because he signed too late to sign, there really isn’t much we can make of him other than his high school career, which is an awesome one.
The Good: Dominguez is already regarded to be a future gold glover. He’s very smooth, has soft hands and has a strong arm enough to remain at third. He has some of the top tools as well, power being the best one in particular.
The Bad: Really, the biggest knock on Dominguez is that he doesn’t have one tool that stands out above the others.
Projection: High. Dominguez will likely be the next great Marlins’ third baseman. I think he’ll be a lot like Ryan Zimmerman, or more appropriately, Mike Lowell, another great Marlns’ Third Baseman
What He Can Be: A Gold Glove Third Baseman That Hits Well.
2008 Course Of Action: Dominguez will begin his career in Rookie League, where he could eventually finish in a Short Season League by the end of the year.
6 – Brett Sinkbeil (RHP)
DOB: 12/26/84
Drafted: 1st Round, 2006, Missouri State
2008 Club: Carolina Mudcats (Double A)
Height/Weight: 6-2/170
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Overall, I would have to think that Sinkbeil’s season was somewhat disappointing. He didn’t nearly do as well as I thought he would do, despite the decent numbers.
The Good: The rare college arm in the system, Sinkeil is an above average pitcher with a low-90s sinker that can touch 95 and an above-average slider. He has good size and clean, repeatable mechanics.
The Bad: Sinkbeil missed time last year with forearm tightness, something that needs to be kept an eye on. His changeup still hasn’t progressed and he may wind up in the bullpen.
Projection: Average. Sinkbeil will likely get sent to Double A, but if the forearm issues or a lack of progress with the changeup continues, the bullpen may be the best role for him, though he would make a capable setup man.
What He Can Be: A Number Three starter
2008 Course Of Action: Carolina should field one of the more intimidating rotations around, with a potential rotation (by me) of Sinkbeil, Tucker and Volstad, but Sinkbeil may be in line for a call up by the end of the season.
7 – Aaron Thompson (LHP)
DOB: 2/28/87
Height/Weight: 6-3/195
Drafted: 1st Round, 2005, Texas High School
2008 Club: Carolina Mudcats (Double A)
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: Thompson is yet another member of the Marlins’ young guns, and was selected not only because of his immense polish for a young kid, but also because he would be a factor sooner rather than later. A polished lefty drafted 22nd overall in 2005, Thompson should move faster than some of the club's other recent picks. Thus far, the plan already appears to be working, as Thompson is already in High A, with Double A coming up soon.
The Good: The stereotypical crafty left has excellent command and control over this stuff, wielding an 87-90 mph fastball and plus slider to get good results. His changeup is average and when he mixes all of them together, he’s able to induce a fair amount of groundballs to help him succeed.
The Bad: Thompson’s success has been more him depending on his command and control than by him blowing people away. Double A will likely force him to adjust. He also has a slight frame and really could afford to put some poundage on.
Projection: Average. Thompson is already moving quickly and should be a factor for Florida as a starter something next year. However, he’s not a difference maker and wouldn’t be much more than a Number Four starter for the fish.
What He Can Be: An Back Of The Rotation Starter.
2008 Course Of Action: Thompson is likely headed to Double A, where he’ll round out an exceptional rotation for Florida.
8 – Tom Hickman (CF)
DOB: 4/18/88
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2006, Georgia High School
2008 Club: Jamestown Jammers (Short Season)
Height/Weight: 6-1/180
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: Though Hickman also had potential as a left handed pitcher, the Marlins committed to him after taking him in the second round. After a decent season where he hit .263 with 2 Homers and 20 RBI’s in 50 games, Hickman was abysmal in 2007 and likely will repeat short season ball.
The Good: Hickman has a good lefty swing and makes hard contact with the ball. His athletic ability is one of the best I the system and he’s got a decent amount of pseed and power potential. The Marlins are gambling that his tools should eventually make him into a outfield regular.
The Bad: Can someone say platoon split? Hickman murdered lefties, but was murdered by right handers all of last season. Oddly enough, last year it was the other way around. He also doesn’t project to be a centerfielder, especially as he adds mass. He regressed on his plate discipline, as his walk totals dropped while his strikeout totals remained the same.
Projection: Very High. Despite his bad year, Hickman is a long ways off anyway, so I’m willing to give him a mulligan for his terrible season in hopes that he builds on it.
What He Can Be: A starting corner outfielder.
2008 Course Of Action: After that brutal year in Jamestown, Hickman will be heading back, hopefully where he’ll be able to build off of his failures.
9 – Chris Coghlan (2B)
DOB: 6/18/85
Drafted: 1st Round (S), 2006, University Of Mississippi
2008 Club: Jupiter Hammerheads (High A)
Height/Weight: 6-1/190
Bats/Throws: L/R
The Skinny: Coghlan started the year out right in Low A, hitting .325 with 10 dingers, 64 RBI’s and at OBP of .419. However, upon being promoted to the Florida State League, he vanished, going Mendoza with a dramatic drop in production. However, most of this can be blamed on the fact that Jupiter has one of the worst hitting parks in the minors.
The Good: A polished hitter, Coghlan shows the ability to make contact, work the count, as well as hit for some gap power. He also has good hands and some speed to work with as well. The tools are there for him to be at least an average major leaguer or utility dude.
The Bad: Coghlan isn’t the power hitter that Dan Uggla is, nor will he be. Defensively, because he only became a second baseman this year, he’s still struggling to learn the position, which in turn may have affected his hitting. Still, many feel that he’ll become at least average by the time he’s ready.
Projection: Fair. Coghlan still has some work to do, but he should be able to shake off his late season yips and be able to finish in Carolina by the end of the year.
What He Can Be: An above average second baseman.
2008 Course Of Action: Coglhan will be heading back to Florida, where he should be able to rebound and finish in Carolina. However, with Dan Uggla pretty much a fixture in Florida (unless he moves to first base), there isn’t a spot of Coghlan to move into in 2009. It’s more than likely that he could be traded if he gets off to a hot start next year.
10 – Mike Stanton (CF/1B)
DOB: 11/8/89
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2007, California High School
2008 Club: Jamestown Jammers (Short Season)
Bats/Throws: R/R
Height/Weight: 6-5/200
The Skinny: One of the top athletes in the draft, the Marlins paid slightly above slot for Stanton, but the bonus will be spread across four years thanks to Stanton’s status as a multisport athlete, as he was heading to USC as a baseball and football player.
The Good: A excellent athlete, Stanton has good physical tools. He’s got good power potential and some decent speed potential as well.
The Bad: Stanton is still raw and is light years away from the majors. He needs work in almost every facet of his game.
Projection: Very High. Stanton looks like he could be a solid starter in center or at the very least an Adam Dunn type masher at first, judging from the scouting reports, Baseball America love and notes from other sources. If they’re to believed, the Marlins could have something here.
What He Can Be: An offensive power source
2008 Course Of Action: I expect Stanton to make his full season debut with the Jammers, where he should remain the whole year while getting work on turning his considerable tools into performance.
11 – Gregory Burns (OF)
DOB: 11/7/86
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2004, California High School
2008 Club: Jupiter Hammerheads (High A)
Height/Weight: 6-2/215
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: A sleeper, Burns has great potential, but hasn’t put much of it in terms of results. This changed this season, as Burns hit .280/.401/.748 for Low A Greensboro, tearing up the Sally League in the process and showing a lot of improvement.
The Good: Morrison has good power potential that is starting to manifest itself. He still has some projection on him in that he’s still a bit of a stringbean, but he’s shown the ability to make solid contact at the plate.
The Bad: Burns wore out as the season ran on, as seen by his first half numbers (.307/.420/.799) and his second half numbers (.252/.381/.693). He’s also shown that he’s a little more ordinary against right handers.
Projection: Average. Burns has been in the system for quite a while, but is still only going to be 21 and has a world of potential for him.
What He Can Be: A starting corner outfielder
2008 Course Of Action: Burns will be headed to Jupiter where he’ll be playing against some advanced competition. He’ll need to keep the average up as well as show some doubles power, as Jupiter is one of the worst hitters parks in the minors.
12 – John Raynor (CF)
DOB: 1/4/84
Drafted: 9th Round, 2006, UNC Wilmington
2008 Club: Jupiter Hammerheads (High A)
Height/Weight: 6-2/185
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: A senior signee last year, Raynor had an outstanding full-season debut with Greensboro, hitting .333/.519/.948 with 13 Homers, 57 RBI’s, 54 stolen bases, and earning the Marlins Minor League Player of the Year award.
The Good: Raynor’s best asset is his athleticism and his speed. He has excellent range in center and is a solid base runner. He has a good enough arm to stay in center and has a quick stroke that allows him to put the ball into play. He’s got some power, more of the doubles variety, but all in all he’s an excellent prospect for the moment.
The Bad: Raynor takes questionable routes in center, something he needs to work on. There is also some question as to whether or not he was simply a college player taking advantage of a easier level of competition.
Projection: Average. Raynor has been a nice surprise and could eventually solve the Marlins’ long standing centerfield issue internally. The problem is that he’s at least another two years off if they accelerate him, which they might very well do, considering that he’s 23 and will need to start proving that he has a future in the pros.
What He Can Be: A starting centerfielder, along the lines of Wily Taveras
2008 Course Of Action: Raynor will likely be heading to Jupiter, where the Marlins hope that he’ll have a solid couple of months to warrant promotion to the Mudcats, where he would be up against more appropriate age related talent.
13 – Graham Taylor (LHP)
DOB: 5/25/84
Drafted: 10th Round, 2006, Miami (Ohio)
2008 Club: Jupiter Hammerheads (High A)
Height/Weight: 6-3/225
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: Taylor won the organizational Triple Crown, tying Volstad with 12 wins finishing with a 2.99 ERA and 138 strikeouts, also earning him the Marlins’ Pitcher Of The Year award.
The Good: Taylor is a crafty lefty that isn’t afraid to throw strikes. He’s got a lot of deception on his fastball and combined with his offspeed pitches, a slider and a changeup, both good pitches, and his pinpoint command and control, Taylor was able to get results.
The Bad: Taylor’s fastball clocks in at around 86-87, meaning that if he’s not on, he’s going to get killed.
Projection: Average. Taylor is an older pitcher, but has gotten by mostly because of his exceptional command and control. But he plays in a league with a lot of pitchers parks and with groundball ability, he should manage to survive and be a decent starting pitcher.
What He Can Be: A back of the rotation pitcher
2008 Course Of Action: Taylor will likely begin the year back in Jupiter, where he showed signs of fatigue during a late promotion there, and should remain the whole year there before a late season promotion to Carolina, to see how far along he is.
14 – Gaby Sanchez (1B)
DOB: 9/02/83
Drafted: 4th Round, 2005, University of Miami (FL)
2008 Club: Carolina Mudcats (Double A)
Height/Weight: 6-2/225
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Sanchez was the New York-Penn League's MVP after being drafted in 2005 and made an even better impression after opening last season at Greensboro, but he had a broken hand interrupt his season in June and then a broken toe end it in August. This season, Sanchez hit .270 with 40 doubles and 70 RBI’s along with a .433 slugging percentage. However, Jupiter is one of the worst hitting parks in the majors and his numbers were better after the All Star Break.
The Good: Sanchez is a lot like current Marlins first baseman Mike Jacobs. He has shown that he has some hitting skills, with some solid power potential and the ability to draw a walk or two. He also has the potential to make contact and hit for a decent average in the past.
The Bad: Sanchez is limited to first base, meaning he’ll have to slug his way to the majors. Also, he was a bit old for the league, which means he needs to hurry up.
Projection: Fair. Sanchez’s time is ticking and he needs to prove that he is a legitimate option in the future for the Marlins at first base. He needs to at least put up solid numbers in Double A in order to retain prospect status and not start get categorized as organization filler.
What He Can Be: A starting first baseman, similar to…Mike Jacobs.
2008 Course Of Action: Now 24, Sanchez needs to start to hurry up and prove that he’s a viable first baseman of the future. The Marlins were hoping that Sanchez would be ready by 2009, which would have allowed them to trade Jacobs, who would be arbitration eligible for the first time. Sanchez, therefore, is very much under the gun to hurry.
15 – Carlos Martinez (RHP)
DOB: 5/26/82
Signed: 2008, Dominican Republic
2008 Club: Florida Marlins (MLB)
Height/Weight: 6-3/200
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: After having to undergo Tommy John Surgery, Martinez was terrible when he returned, but he was okay during winter league action while undergoing rehab, so he should be ready to compete again soon.
The Good: Martinez throws in the mid 90’s and compliments it with a hard slider.
The Bad: Control issues from the procedure are still an issue and will have to be worked on.
Projection: Low. Martinez should be ready to help out the Marlins. It is there hope that he could eventually be their long term option at closer.
What He Can Be: A closer.
2008 Course Of Action: Now healed, Martinez should be ready to compete for a job with the Marlins this season, where they hope he can provide a solid bridge up to Kevin Gregg.
Final Thoughts
For the most part, the level of talent at the top of the organization is pretty much non-existent, thanks to the vast amount of graduations, but there is a lot of talent in the lower levels, pitching in particular, that could make some noise sometime in the 2009 season. But for the most part, there isn’t much in terms of immediate graduations, as every prospect that could have made the Marlins already has, meaning that the organization needs to either taken advantage of some injury related rehab projects to contend or hope that some of their other players step up and continue to develop. Help isn’t on the way for a while, meaning that Florida will have to make do with what they have or trade their two remaining assets in Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis in order to get some more reinforcements.
Sources, Scouting Reports, and Thanks to: Kevin Goldstein (Baseball Prospectus), Keith Law (ESPN), Soxprospects.com, B.J. Medrano, Jim Callis And The Rest Of Baseball America, Jonathan Mayo (MLB.com), MiLB.com, Sam Corral and Erica Belmontes, Ernie Carlson, Lonestarball.com, Jamey Newberg (Newbergreport.com), Brewerfan.net and Mike Hindman (Rangers Farm Report)
The Red Sox Top 15 will be up later, right now I have something that just set me off that I saw on Sportscenter (had no choice, was at the Gym and it was either that or reruns of ER. And I hate ER.)
Steve Phillips was asked for his recommandations to the Dodgers on how he would make their team a World Series contender. After hearing him talk, I quickly wondered what reality he was talking about.
Here are Phillips' takes, more or less, and my own, in full unedited glory.
Step 1 – Trade for Miguel Cabrera or Sign Alex Rodriguez
First off, I will credit Phillips with correctly identifying the Dodgers' need for power in the lineup. However, this is the wrong way to go with it. If you take Phillips’ later assumptions into account, it’s going to have to be Rodriguez or nothing, as the Marlins currently are assembling a list of players that they are targeting from different organizations that they would want in return for the potential Hall of Fame hopeful. One of those is almost certainly going to be Clayton Kershaw, a young lefty that is going to be as good as Red Sox pitcher Clay Buchholz.
Kershaw would have to be sent back in any deal that for Cabrera, that's a given. It was Kershaw that was a sticking point in the Dodgers' failed negotiations this past summer for Mark Teixeira.
As for A-Rod, he'll cost nothing but money, but it'll be a WHOLE LOT of money.
My Solution - Why Not Settle With What you have in house? The Dodgers have a perfectly good third base prospect in Andy LaRoche, who has hit the batting line of .295/.525/.901 in the minors and has averaged 18 Homers and 61 RBIs in an average of 90 games per season. Why not give him a full season to prove that he can hit? He's a lot cheaper than Rodriguez or Cabrera and would give a power boost to the lineup as well.
And if you must get rid of LaRoche, go after a cheaper first baseman to save some money for what is about to come next. The Rangers would be happ to give up Hank Blalock straight up for LaRoche. The Pirates would be willing to give up Freddy Sanchez if it meant getting LaRoche.
The only possible way of getting Cabrera might be asking the Marlins if they'd be receptive to a deal of a paid for Juan Pierre (solving their centerfield issue), LaRoche (solving third while improving the infield defense) and including Andre Ethier and Jonathan Broxton. That woudl be the only way I could see a deal for Cabrera working, though I would prefer to just use LaRoche.
Step 2 – Sign Andruw Jones, Aaron Rowand, or Torii Hunter to play centerfield and move Juan Pierre to left
Yikes. Here's another bad idea.
Pierre is a terrible outfielder and has a weak arm as well. He's probably one of the worst contracts signed in the Ned Colletti era.
Philips said that acquriing one of the three centerfielders mentioned above would not only improve the offense, but also improve the defense as well.
Here's an idea, which would work with Philips' plan and would still have the desired effect.
Trade Pierre for whoever you can get, preferrably a reliever or a swingman to help the pen and the rotation if necessary. Second, play Etheir (provided he's not traded, of course) in left, and play Matt Kemp, a blossoming young monster, in right. If you get Andruw Jones, which would work, in center, congradulations. You just improved the outfield defense and upgraded the offense to boot.
Step 3 – Trade For Johan Santana
Ooookay, where to start.
Provided you haven't already traded Kershaw, going after Santana creates more problems than it does solve any.
First off, you would immediately open a hole in right field, as it would likely require a package of Kershaw, Kemp and LaRoche to get Santana, even if you do get him to agree to a contract extension.
Guess what, you just opened a hole in right and third base.
You could play Ethier at right, but I like his bat better in left field. And it would make the necessary the addition of a Rodriguez and a Andruw Jones in order to fill those holes, leaving you with a much more expensive roster which wasn't necessary in the first place.
The Dodgers could enter next season by making only one foray into the free agent market and that would be it:
Starting Lineup
Furcal (SS)
Martin (C)
Kent (2B)
Loney (1B)
Kemp (RF)
Jones (CF) - Brought In Via Free Agency
LaRoche (3B)
Ethier (LF)
Rotation
Penny (RHP)
Lowe (RHP)
Billingsley (RHP)
Schmidt (RHP)
Wolf (RHP) - Brought Back
Contracts Traded For Bullpen Help - Pierre (CF) to Marlins For Kevin Gregg (RHP), Nomar Garciaparra (1B) To Texas For Akinori Otsuka (RHP)
And there you have it. I'm done. That team I just put together should win 88 games, maybe 90 if the team stays healthy and the youngsters develop. There was no need to go spend foolishly on several players that may not have been worth it. That's the reason why you have a farm system. So you can eventually have young, cheaper, higher upside pieces to build around and eventually contend with.
And all without having to mortgage my best pieces in the farm and to keep the payroll more or less reasonable in the long run.
I'm beginning to understand why Phillips was tossed out so quickly by the Mets.
Why the Angels need to trade Ervin Santana, is Miguel Cabrera the second coming of Mo Vaughn, why Brett Tomko shouldn't have been sent to the rotation, and 2007 Free Agency Bargain Bin Pitchers.
Angels Need To Trade Santana Soon
The Angels would probably be wise to trade Ervin Santana now, as cracks are appearing in his trade value.
Santana is a talented young pitcher that has been shopped often. It's beginning to show why, however?
Outside of Angels Stadium, Santana morphs into Jeff Weaver and gets killed. Take a look at his splits for this season.
Home - 3-1, 2.33 ERA
Away - 0-4, 7.86 ERA
That's horrible. Jeff Weaver horrible. Well, maybe not that bad.
But the fact of the matter is that Santana may not be the young ace in the making that we think he is.
At least, not in the American League.
In the National League, I think Santana could really blossom. With lineups that are less potent, more pitcher friendly stadiums (Busch, Petco, Shea, Dolphin, Turner, and Dodger Stadiums, just to name a few), we could see Santana maintain more of his dominance and be a perennial All-Star. True, he would get killed in other parks (Coors and Minutemaid would be where Santana would probably be in trouble), but overall, a move to the National League would be beneficial.
Where would he fit best?
The Angels want a bat in return for Santana and are probably hoping to cash in on a trade, similar to what Oakland did when they traded Mark Mulder to the Cardinals. I don't think they'll get that much, nor do I think they'll get what they would have last season. However, if the Rockies would be willing to eat enough of Todd Helton's contract, or if the DBacks are willing to part with one of their talented young hitters, or even if Omar Minaya or John Schurholz is willing to part with a regular (Lasting Milledge would probably be enough to get a deal done), I think that the Angels would do well in terms of return on their investment.
The Second Coming Of Mo Vaughn?
You all remember Mo Vaughn, right guys? The Red Sox slugger that practically ate his way out of the league by 30 or so?
Apparently, Miguel Cabrera is following the same route.
Cabrera, according to Baseball Reference.com, was 185 when he entered the league. He has since added on a whopping 55 pounds since then. Several scouts have said that at this point, Cabrera might need to consider another position change, probably first base, or be traded to the American League where he can DH.
First base wouldn't be a bad option for him, where he would rival Albert Pujols and Lance Berkman as the most dangerous first baseman in the league. This would likely interest Omar Minaya, who could replace Carlos Delgado in a few years with Cabrera, giving him a potent offense force in the lineup.
Tomko Heading Back To The Pen
Remember last year, when Brett Tomko talked about how glad he was to be moved into the pen and how he spoke about how he would like to be a closer.
Well, he wasn't glad about being asked to move again.
Tomko walked past reporters without a word after telling a Dodgers public relations official that he didn't have time to talk about it.
And realistically, the Dodgers shouldn't have been putting Tomko out to start to begin with. He was surprisingly capable as a setup man/middle reliever and the fact that the Dodgers sent Chad Billingsley to the bullpen instead of Tomko is just bad roster management.
Hong-Chih Kuo will move into the rotation if his next start at triple-A Las Vegas goes well.
For everyone who wants to take a chance on some of these less than stellar members of a rotation, here's who's available.
Rodrigo Lopez (Rockies) – Lopez was traded in his final year of arbitration to the Rockies, where so far he’s been solid for the Rockies…when healthy. However, there is still enough doubt about Lopez that he belongs down here.
Byung-Hyun Kim (Marlins) – Kim received interest in the fact that he’s a fairly decent, fairly durable pitcher that can function as a fifth starter. He’ll get work this off-season,
Jeff Weaver (Mariners) – It’s starting to get a little old with the bad Weaver. But someone will take a chance on him because of his age, potential, and out of need.
Jaret Wright (Orioles) – It’s over for Wright as any more than a fifth starter, where his durability as well as his ability won’t hurt the team as much. However, expect some team to overpay for his services, as they will see Wright as a reclamation project that could pay big dividends. Hmmm, the Cardinals could come calling.
Wade Miller (Cubs) – The Cubbies took a flyer on Miller and the result was a solid Spring Training and little else.
Kip Wells (Cardinals) – Depending on what the hell happens with this season, Wells could see the interest in him build. How much depends on his performance. People still feel he’s got great stuff, but honestly, Wells seems to almost invent ways to lose games. He will find work, but whether it’s on a major league deal is to be decided.
Odalis Perez (Royals) – [If $9MM club option is declined.] Perez is a average fifth starter that would probably be better suited for the NL than the AL. His stuff is rather mediocre and he seems to get by more on luck than skill. I do expect the Royals to exercise his option, as they really lack any decent options for the rotation, even with Luke Hochevar doing good things in the minors.
Victor Zambrano (Blue Jays) – Zambrano is an average stuff kind of guy that could pull his weight as the fourth man in the rotation. It all depends on how well he bounces back from TJ. So far, the results have been…not pretty.
Eric Milton (Reds) – Yeah, I doubt that there will be much interest in Milton at the moment, considering how badly he’s pitched. in the past few years.
Matt Clement (Red Sox) – Don’t know what happened to Clement. One moment he was awesome, the next moment he was awful and relegated to the bullpen. Clement will find takers thanks to his past history of success, but as to how much those takers are willing to offer is a different matter all together.
John Thomson (Blue Jays) – Thomson, at this point of his career, looks done. I don’t see him getting anything more than a minor league contract, though Ranger Fans should always hold a debt of gratitude toward him. The compensation pick that was received for Thomson was spent on Texas’ top prospect, Eric Hurley.
David Wells (Padres) – At Well’s age and with his current health concerns, he’s likely going to hang it up.
That's all I got, see you next week unless the Fort Worth Star Telegram goes nuts again.
Getting near the end here. THe last of the previews will be done next week.
Florida Marlins
The Marlins were one of the big stories last year, as I don’t think there has every been a team that underwent such a huge makeover and was still able to contend for much of the season.
That aint’ happening this year.
Here’s why.
Starting Rotation
Dontrelle Willis (LHP) – The lone remainder of the 2005 rotation, Willis lead the staff last season and posted a solid 3.87 ERA with 160 strikeouts. However, his 12-12 record is largely due to the Marlins' struggles early on in the season, as well as a bit of a hang over from the World Baseball Classic. With free agency approaching next year, Willis will be a hot commodity, though some teams will be wary about all the innings he's logged in since he broke into the league. On a side note, Willis also is a excellent hitter and has hit as low as 8th in the order.
Scott Olsen (LHP) – Olsen gets very good velocity for a lefty, as he’s able to #### it up to the mid 90s. He compliments that with a great slider and he’s got a good changeup that he should mix in more often. The problem with Olsen is that he works high in the zone, and gets pounded from time to time as a result. He also needs to improve his stamina, as he should start to pass the 200 innings mark sometime soon.
Anibal Sanchez (RHP) – Sanchez has all the stuff to become an ace, and he blossomed last year when called up by Florida. Sanchez went 10-3 with a 2.83 ERA in 17 starts, plus threw a no hitter, paving the way for a Rookie Of The Year quality season. Sanchez's only knock is his size and his history of arm troubles, which have recently reared their ugly head again when Sanchez reported soreness in his shoulder. Thus, this situation bears watching, as yet another talented arm for the Marlins takes a possible hit.
Ricky Nolasco (RHP) – Nolasco has average stuff that projects him to be a fourth or fifth starter or a long reliever, depending on what the Marlins decide to do with him long tern. They’ll be depending on him to pitch as the fourth starter, especially with Johnson out for two months.
Yusmeiro Petit (RHP) – Petit lacks any plus pitches, but he’s got a very deceptive deliver that hides the ball well and results in a high number of strikeouts. However, he wasn’t able to translate that success into wins at the majors, resulting in a demotion to the bullpen. Petit will likely begin the season with the Marlins, but he’ll be sent back to Albuquerque as soon as Johnson is ready to come back.
Bullpen
Taylor Tankersley (Closer) – After being switched to the bullpen, Tankersley really took off, finishing the season in the majors and functioning as a setup man. Tankersley has good enough stuff to close, but the concern is that he may not be healthy enough to remain in the role. It should be interesting to see what happens.
Logan Kensing (Setup Man) – Kensing was okay as a part time setup man. He’ll man the full time duties this Spring.
Henry Owens (RHP) – Obtained from the Mets, Owens looks to be a finished product and should be a more than capable swingman for the Fish. Owens has got a great fastball, but the lack of a breaking pitch is rather troublesome, as his slider really doesn’t exist. He’ll likely team up with Kensing for setup duties.
Carlos Hernandez (RHP) – Hernandez was tremendous coming out of the pen last year and seems to be a lock to make the pen this Spring.
Randy Messenger (RHP) – Messenger had a roller coaster year last year, as he was either effective or awful, depending on the month. A excellent September gives the Marlins some hope that he can be good.
Reynal Pinto (LHP) – Pinto looks to have the makings of a shutdown lefty reliever, but he was an excellent minor league starter. Hence, there will be some teams asking abou him as part of a trade, in hopes of using him in that capacity.
Sergio Mitre (RHP) – Not sure what to make of Mitre. He’s likely going to be the swingman, though I wonder if there are better options available in the farm system that could help right now.
Starting Lineup
Hanley Ramirez (SS) – Ramirez, part of the Josh Beckett deal, proved to be a capable replacement for Alex Gonzalez. He thrived as a leadoff man and is proving that he’s an excellent fielder as well. Though Ramirez will eventually be moved down in the lineup, as he seems to be a better fit as a number two man, he should be able to duke it out with Jose Reyes for the title of best leadoff man in the National League.
Dan Uggla (2B) – A Rule 5 pick from the Diamondbacks, Uggla slugged his way into keeping the starting job while entering the record books as the new record holder for for homers by a rookie second baseman. Uggla has evolved into a pretty good defender and should hit for some nice power in the two spot. I don’t think that Uggla will have the same success that he did last year, as he is likely still adjusting to the majors, and pitchers figured him out a little, but if he can hit around .280 to .290 with 15 to 20 bombs, the Marlins will be more than happy.
Miguel Cabrera (3B) – Cabrera is one of those players that you know is destined for Cooperstown the first time you see him play. Cabrera was a beast for the Marlins, hitting .339 with 26 homers and 114 RBI’s, all the while showing that he can be a more than capable defender at third. The real question about Cabrera is whether or not he’s willing to be a leader, as he had his lapses much of last season and management seems determined to set the grounds for an eventual trade, as they’ve been feuding with him for much of the off-season.
Josh Willingham (LF) – Willingham isn’t the greatest left fielder, as he lacks range and his decision making in the field is questionable at times. However, his bat is excellent, as seen from his .277/26/74 batting line. Willingham should improve with experience, and hopefully as the Guppies enter their second season together, Willingham can further improve on his hitting an be a monster of a cleanup man.
Mike Jacobs (1B) – Jacobs doesn’t have the amount of power that his predecessor, Carlos Delgado, had, but he hit very well and is one of the only lefty batters that offers any sort of power. The bigger question is whether or not Jacobs can defend, as he was often times awful playing first.
Jeremy Hermida (RF) –Hermida's rookie season was ruined by hip and ankle injuries, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be a stud. He still has excellent plate discipline and doubles power, though his strikeout rate may keep his batting average down. He should have a very good career and he projects similar to Brian Giles, a very good outfielder with some pop. I still wish Texas had drafted him instead of Drew Meyer.
Miguel Olivo (C) – Olivo had a very nice season as a full time starter and he put up career best numbers in all three triple crown categories, plus was capable of providing guidance to a rookie staff. He also threw out 34 percent of attempted base stealers. The only problem is the strikeouts and his lack of plate discipline. He had nine walks, the fewest ever for a player with at least 100 strikeouts.
Alfredo Amezaga (CF) – This utilityman is hoped to be able to provide at least some sort of offense from center, all the while being able to capably man the postion. He’s likely a placeholder for someone else, should the Marlins choose to make a move. Word has it that they’re interesting in making a deal for Tampa Bay’s B.J. Upton and Elijah Dukes to man center, though the Rays are asking for too much and the Marlins are unwilling to offer any young pitching. Oh, and to a certain baseball writer who said that the Marlins shouldn’t trade any of their young pitching because they’d be better off long term, all I have to say is #### you. The Marlins need a centerfielder and frankly, none of these guys that they have in camp will cut it. Sometimes you gotta trade pitching to help the team now, especially when FOUR of your starters won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2011 season.
Bench
Matt Treanor (C) – One of the best backup catchers in the league, Treanor should provide some leadership on the young Marlins. That and bring his smoking hot wife to games.
Aaron Boone (1B/3B) – Boone is done as a regular, but it’s possible that he may have something left to offer as far as a reserve. Boone is most remembered for his home run against the Red Sox in the ALCS, plus inadvertently causing Drew Henson to head back to football.
Robert Andino (INF) – Andino has a great glove and will likely sub for Ramirez or Uggla in case of injury.
Cody Ross (OF) – Ross may be a option for center, but he needs to improve his plate discipline if he hopes to wrestle the job away from Amezaga. He does have some power, which gives him a slight edge over Amezaga, though.
Joe Borchard (OF) – Borchard is better off playing the outfield corners as a backup, but he’s also a bit of a disappointment as far as a centerfield option.
Disabled List
John Johnson (RHP) – Johnson is a solid right-handed pitcher that was dominating for much of last year. However, he’ll be out for two months thanks to an irritated ulnar nerve. Secretly, the that will likely force him to miss at least the first two months of the season.
Down On The Farm…
The Marlins still have some great pitching talent in the lower minors, but the biggest weakness in this system is that they lack any bats that are capable of making an impact. Their lack of position prospects has become noticeable, which was evident in the fact that their six minor league affiliates had a combined.467 winning percentage. There’s not an awful lot to call up at this moment, as the staff appears to be set, but there are some players that could make a contribution at some point.
Reggie Abercrombie (CF) – The Marlins had high hopes for Abercrombie, but I think that he was rushed to the majors too soon and that may have hurt his development. With some more time in the minors, along with instruction, Abercrombie could be at the very least a league average centerfielder in a year.
Brett Sinkbeil (RHP) – The sky’s the limit for Sinkbeil and there’s talk that he could move through the system quickly. Sinkbiel is an extremely polished pitcher with a low 90’s sinking fastball that touches 95 that he uses with a above average slider. His changeup is still a work in progress, but the potential is that if he gets that last pitch together, he could reach Florida by the end of 2006.
Jose Garcia (RHP) – Garcia is a short pitcher, but he’s got great stuff, as his arsenal includes a low 90s fastball, a decent slider, and changeup that is already a plus pitcher. The problem is that his size allows for little movement and he’s got very little projection left on him. Garcia rose quikyl through the system, beginning in Class High A and hitting the Majors, but he’s likely going to be in Triple A, where he’ll await a call up.
In Conclusion
Last year’s 78 win team surprised many, and showed that you could win with a payroll less than Derek Jeter’s yearly salary. That won’t happen this year, as the Marlins will likely suffer some attrition due to injuries, the league catching up to some of the starters, and the improvement of the National League as a whole. They may finish at .500, but I don’t see them making the playoffs. They will, however, be a threat to the Phillies, Braves and Mets next year and will be dangerous thanks to that staff. But until then…
Final Standing: Fourth Place In The National League East.
P.S. – Yes, I was in a bad mood when I wrote this.
Barry Bonds isn’t going to touch Hank Aaron.His health and the controversy won’t let him. Though it's a little too soon, Bonds might struggle to just past Ruth at this point. (I still believe that he will within the next two months or so.)
That doesn’t mean there aren’t players currently playing that don’t have a shot at doing it.So, with that said, let’s take a look at who’s got the best shot of catching Hank Aaron.Here are the criteria that I had in mind when looking at the list:
·Age (Below 30)
·Power Hitter
·Injury History
·Must have had two seasons over 30 Homers
·Assumed Retirement Age:42
·Staying Injury Free is assumed to be a given.
Alex Rodriguez, Third Base, New York Yankees
A-Rod is currently the odds on favorite to break the home run record.He’s got age and health on his side.Rodriguez is only 30 and has 429 homers.
Pace Needed To Break The Record:35 Home Runs Per Year.
Estimated Date of Record:May of 2015 at 40 years of age.
What would derail his chances:Rodriguez has stated he may retire after his current big money deal expires.
Chance to Break Record:He’s almost a lock to do so.
Albert Pujols, First Base, St. Louis Cardinals
Probably the best hitter in the National League, it would be stupid to leave him out of consideration.Pujols is still young (26), has already hit more than 200 homers in 5 seasons.He would have started earlier had it not been for McGwire.And the scary thing is that Pujols is still only going to get better.He’s definitely got a shot.And he’s got the potential for more monster years ahead that could decrease the total number of home runs per year he needs to make.
Pace Needed To Break The Record: 37 Home Runs Per Year
Estimated Date of Record:June of 2020 at 41 years of age.
What would derail his chances:A down year is all he needs, since the new Busch Field is VERY accomodating to him.
Chance to Break Record:If Rodriguez doesn't, Pujols will.
Miguel Cabrera, Third Base, Florida Marlins
I actually go with Cabrera third.He’s going to be 23 soon, but he’s torn it up on the field.Despite the pitcher friendly dimensions of Dolphin Stadium, he’#### thirty homers in the past two seasons.His best years are still ahead of him, if that's any comfort to opposing pitchers.
Pace Needed To Break The Record:40 Home Runs Per Year.
Estimated Date of Record:September of 2023 at 40 years of age.
What would derail his chances:For Cabrera to have a serious shot, he’s going to have to move to a more neutral park.Dolphin Stadium is murder on power hitters.
Chance to Break Record:Excellent
Andruw Jones, Center Field, Atlanta Braves
Jones had an MVP Caliber year last year that vaulted him into consideration.He’s 29 has remained injury free for much of his career.He’s now at 301 Homers for his career and is certainly in contention to finish his career high in the 500 Home Run Club.
Pace Needed To Break The Record:35 Home Runs Per Year.
Estimated Date of Record:September of 2018 at 41 years of age.
What would derail his chances:Below average years such as last years.
Chance to Break Record:Very Good
Ken Griffey Jr., Center Field, Cincinnati Reds
Junior, remarkably, still has a shot at breaking Aaron.I’m entirely serious.This past season’s performance, plus his World Baseball Classic performance, has proven that Gr
