Okay, as promised, here are my prospect rankings, according to those that asked for specific teams. We'll be going in alphabetical order here, no favoritism.
Just to clarify some other things, here are my standards that I picked rookies for eligibility:
Positional Players - 150 AB
Pitchers - 75 Innings
Post Season Numbers Not Included
Arizona Diamondbacks – Prospect Report
After watching their 2002 team fall short of their goal of returning to the series and their 2003 team imploding in flames, the Diamondbacks began their slow process of rebuilding their roster for the future. With Scouting Director Mike Rizzo at the helm, the Dbacks began taking high impact talent that fell their way in the draft, making sure no price was too hefty to pay, while acquiring overlooked talent that happened to fall their way. They also managed to acquire some excellent players via trade, all of which has added up to one of the more productive farm systems in all of baseball. The talent has fallen off a little bit with the mass of promotions over the past couple of years, but there is still a lot to like here, especially when it comes to outfield prospects and a couple of flamethrowers they’ve got in the system.
Diamondbacks Top 15
1 – Justin Upton (CF)
DOB: 8/25/87
Drafted: 1st overall, 2005, Virginia High School
2008 Club: Arizona Diamondbacks (MLB)
Height/Weight: 6-1/195
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: B.J.'s little brother, Justin was a highly regarded talent, too high for the DBacks to pass up. However, unlike B.J., the Diamondbacks recognized Justin's defensive lapses and immediately moved him to centerfield. Justin had a breakout season and was impressive in the Futures Game, before eventually getting promoted to the big league club and moving to right field. Since I grade differently, Upton remains on my list (though not by much.)
The Good: Upton is loaded with tools. He has power to all fields, is extremely fast, and has a strong arm in center. In centerfield, he showed great range and great instincts. He's also got a pretty neat swing.
The Bad: Just improvement on plate discipline, though he should hit for a high average anyway. Many also wonder if Upton at times plays on cruise control, though whether or not this is a result of his talent or not is unknown.
Projection: Moderate. Upton can still fill out some more, but the thought is that he still may have some untapped potential within him, as hard as it is to believe.
What He Can Be: An elite centerfielder.
2008 Course Of Action: With Upton now in Phoenix, he and Young should form one of the most exciting outfield tandems in the National League, and one of the best defensive ones as well.
2 – Max Scherzer (RHP)
DOB: 07/27/84
Drafted: 1st Round, 2006, University of Missouri (D&F)
2008 Club: Mobile Baybears (Double A)
Height/Weight: 6-7/225
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Medical insecurities caused Scherzer to begin to fall in the draft as many teams began to get ####ed about him. However, former scouting director Mike Rizzo liked Scherzer’s arm as well as his ability to dial it up into the upper 90’s and pulled the trigger on Scherzer at 11. Afterward, Rizzo left for Washington and Scherzer’s agent, Scott Boras, began to play hardball, demanding that Scherzer be paid like the top talent in the draft, possibly similar to Boras client’s Luke Hochevar and Andrew Miller. Arizona refused and the result in that Scherzer headed to Fort Worth. However, unlike the Hochevar situation, Scherzer still had doubts about him, enough that the Boras camp felt it had no choice but to sign with Arizona, which they did at literally the last minute.
The Good: Scherzer is a legitimate power arm, one of the few in the Arizona system. The talent was there for Scherzer to dominate, as he has a plus fastball that can reach the upper 90’s, coupled with a plus slider that is clocked in the mid 80’s that is an effective out pitch.
The Bad: Scherzer has a history of shoulder problems, the most serious medical issue a pitcher can face. According to Baseball America’s Jim Callis, Scherzer also lacks command over his secondary pitchers to succeed as a starting pitcher. And to top it all off, he’s got a violent delivery.
Projection: Fair. Scherzer hit a speed bump in Double A, where he’s been hammered and has had the usual issues with command and durability. This year is really going to be telling, as I don’t think he’ll make the majors as a starting pitcher.
What He Can Be: A Dominant Closer
2008 Course Of Action: Scherzer will likely be sent to Double A, as he was hammered during his promotion there. As for how long Scherzer will be starting, give it a year until Arizona is forced to realize that he’s better off in the pen. That’s not a bad thing. If Scherzer is moved to the pen, he could eventually take over for the injury prone Jose Valverde.
3 – Carlos Gonzalez (RF)
DOB: 10/17/85
Signed: Venezuela, 2002
2008 Club: Tucson Sidewinders (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 6-1/200
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: Gonzalez’s stock is took a bit of a tumble early one, but he was able to adjust to the more advanced level of pitching in Double A and earned himself a promotion to Tucson. All in all, it was a good season and Gonzalez is yet another outfield prospect to keep an eye on in this system.
The Good: Gonzalez has some of the best tools in the system. Gonzalez has a smooth, fluid stroke, above-average power, good range in right field. He hits to a decent average and has a cannon for an arm. He’s got some wheels on him as well.
The Bad: Gonzalez is a bit aggressive at the plate, leading to high strikeout totals. There have been some concerns over his work ethic at times, but Gonzalez kicked it up a notch when competition arrived in the form of Aaron Cunningham.
Projection: Average. Gonzalez has the tools, the youth and some success in the upper minors, but he still needs some seasoning. Should he remain in Tucson next year, he could put up some monster numbers in the Pacific Coast League next year, and give Arizona more questions than answers when it comes to their outfield of the future.
What He Come: An All-Star Right Fielder
2008 Course Of Action: Gonzalez will likely be sent to Triple A, which I do think he deserves judging by his second half, but his long term future with Arizona is in doubt. Still, another solid season could result in a trade to another organization.
4 – Aaron Cunningham (OF)
DOB: 4/24/86
Drafted: 6th round, 2005, Everett Junior College (White Sox)
2008 Club: Mobile Baybears (Double A)
Height/Weight: 5-11/195
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Cunningham was traded by the White Sox to the Diamondbacks for second base prospect Danny Richar, in order fill the hole in second base for 2008. However, the Diamondbacks are rapidly looking like geniuses for making the trade, as Cunningham destroyed the California League from the day he reported to Visalia, earning himself a promotion to Double A Mobile. All in all, Cunningham has had an impressive year.
The Good: Cunningham doesn’t have something that he does best, but he does most things well. He’s got a great swing and makes solid contact with the ball, plus some solid power potential, possible 25 bomb potential. He hits to all fields and he’s got solid speed on him as well. Many were wondering if Cunningham could play anywhere other than left field, but it turns out that he’s not bad in center or right field at all. All in all, he’s a good prospect.
The Bad: Cunningham's pitch recognition still needs work, as he doesn’t draw enough walks.
Projection: Average. Cunningham is still developing as a player, but he's got a good tool set and is in a good organization for developing them.
What He Can Be: An above average centerfielder or an average corner outfielder.
2008 Course Of Action: Cunningham has been great since arriving to Arizona, however his future isn’t going to be in the desert, not with Eric Byrnes signed for three more years in left and uberprospects Justin Upton and Chris B. Young in right and center. So, Cunningham will be allowed to develop, and he’ll bring in a bundle back in a trade.
5 – Jarrod Parker (RHP)
DOB: 11/24/88
Drafted: 1st Round, 2007, Indiana High School
2008 Club: Arizona League Diamondbacks (Rookie)
Height/Weight: 6-1/175
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Parker and Michael Main were regarded to be the best pitchers in the draft not represented by Scott Boras. Because the Diamondbacks paid a heavy price for last year’s 11th Overall pick, Max Scherzer, Parker was selected based on his signability, which turned out to be difficult. Coming off of a high school senior year in which he went 10-0 with a 0.13 ERA and four complete games, Parker negotiated until the 11th hour and adds a legitimately powerful arm in the Arizona system.
The Good: Parker throws three pitches, but much of his high school success depended on his powerful fastball. He throws in the 94-95 mph Range and can dial it up to 98 when he wants to. He’s able to spot it well on both sides of the plate and has a promising low-80s slider and a average changeup.
The Bad: Because Parker depended so much on his heater in high school, both of his secondary pitches are well behind his fastball. His slight build raises a few durability questions as he gets older.
Projection: Very High. Parker is easily the best starting pitching prospect in the entire system, and that includes Scherzer. Still, Parker has very much the ability to be a top of the rotation starter, similar to Roy Oswalt if he’s blessed with the same durability. Even if he doesn’t make it as a starter, he’d be a valuable reliever. Still, I have faith in him to get it done as a starter.
What He Can Be: A Front Of The Rotation Starter, Potential Ace
2008 Course Of Action: Parker will likely be headed to the AZL Dbacks, with a potential finish in a short season league by the end of the year. He’s got years ahead of him to get ready, but Arizona won’t push him more than they have to.
6 – Gerardo Parra (CF)
DOB: 5/6/87
Drafted: 2004, Dominican Republic
2008 Club: Visalia Oaks (High A)
Height/Weight: 5-11/197
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: Another toolsy player n the Arizona system, Parra had a breakout campaign in Low A, hitting .320/.370/.435 before being promoted to the at Low-A South Bend, and then holding his own in a one-month California League stint.
The Good: More tools here, as Parra has some power, good bat control and is able to hit to all fields. He’s quick on the base paths and is an excellent defender with a cannon of an arm, good range and his instincts in the outfield are improving.
The Bad: The power is more of the doubles variety. He also needs to improve on his walk totals.
Projection: Average. Parra is quickly turning into one of my favorite prospects. He compares favorable to Carlos Gonzalez, though he’s a better bet to stay in center and could have value in the two spot if he draws more walks.
What He Can Be: A centerfielder that hits in the two hole.
2008 Course Of Action: Now that he’s gotten his feet wet in the higher minors, Parra will likely remain in Visalia for the year, though his star could keep on rising, forcing a promotion. Long term, Parra is blocked and would be a valuable trade chip in a couple of years.
7 – Brett Anderson (LHP)
DOB: 2/1/88
Drafted: 2nd round, 2006, Oklahoma High School
2008 Club: Visalia Oaks (High A)
Height/Weight: 6-4/215
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: Last year, Anderson was one of the more difficult high school pitchers to evaluate, and his bonus demands resulted in him falling out of the first and supplemental rounds. The Diamondbacks were intrigued enough to pull the trigger on him, even though he wasn't a power pitcher and never will be. His final line was 11-7 with a 3.07 ERA between Low and High A.
The Good: The son of Oklahoma State coach Frank Anderson, Anderson's mechanics are solid and he has remarkable control of his breaking stuff and off-speed pitches. He's got a very deep repertoire, with three solid pitches, the best being a changeup that he can throw for strikes. He’s got a good pitcher’s build and could even add a little more mass.
The Bad: Anderson is also not very athletic and his fastball clocks in the high 80's, touching 91 on occasion.
Projection: Average. Anderson still has a lot of work to do in terms of improving himself, but his ability to induce groundballs and log in innings should result in some success in the desert.
What He Can Be: An innings eater in the back of the rotaiton
2008 Course Of Action: Anderson got hit hard in the California League and likely will repeat there to begin next year.
8 – Dallas Buck (RHP)
DOB: 11/11/1984
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2006, Oregon State
2008 Club: Visalia Oaks (High A)
Height/Weight: 6-2/195
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Buck entered 2006 as one of the better college pitching prospects, but everything went wrong and combined with a drop in velocity, Buck fell hard until the Diamondbacks took a flier on him. He signed and since then has been average and productive, but the lack of velocity prompted Buck to undergo Tommy John surgery in late July.
The Good: Buck is regarded to be a very good pitcher with a decent arsenal. He currently has a filthy slider that is a solid out pitch and he also mixes in a good changeup and curveball. He projects to be very much like Derek Lowe.
The Bad: The concern was where Buck’s old velocity went, which is why he underwent TJ. Hopefully, this will do the trick.
Projection: Average. Buck is tough to evaluate. He’s got solid numbers, but considering what he once was, it’s kind of hard to figure out what he really can be.
What He Can Be: A Back Of The Rotation Starter, right now.
2008 Course Of Action: Buck will likely be continuing his rehab until June or so, after which he’ll being a rehab program to build himself back up again.
9 – Dustin Nippert (RHP)
DOB: 5/6/81
Drafted: 15th round, 2002, University of West Virginia
2008 Club: Arizona Diamondbacks (MLB)
Height/Weight: 6-8/225
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Nippert, once one of the higher regarded Arizona pitching prospects, hasn’t done much to prove that he’s still an elite prospect, as he was very mediocre in Triple A Tucson and got shelled when he was shuttled back and forth to Arizona.
The Good: Thanks to his huge height, Nippert is able to take advantage of his lo 90’s sinking fastball and curveball, which seem to drop out from the sky.
The Bad: Nippert has been inconsistent throughout his career and without a third pitch, he’s likely headed to the bullpen.
Projection: Low. Despite all the potential, it’s time to start looking at Nippert in relief, as his development has now stagnated. The Dbacks are hoping that he can somehow reclaim his value, but it doesn’t look very promising right now.
What He Can Be: A capable setup man.
2008 Course Of Action: Nippert is likely headed with the Snakes back to Phoenix, where he’ll function as a setup/long man for the bullpen, though to be fair, his stuff is good enough where he could be given one final shot at starting.
10 – Wes Roemer (RHP)
DOB: 10/7/86
Drafted: 1st Round, 2007, Cal State Fullerton
2008 Club: Mobile Baybears (Double A)
Height/Weight: 6-0/200
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: A first round projected pick for much of the year, Roemer put up solid numbers (10-6, 3.33 ERA, with 136 SO and 22 BB in 127 IP) during his Junior Year at Cal State and was taken late in the first round.
The Good: A smallish right-handed pitcher, Roemer gets along thanks to his excellent command and control. His repitoire consists of a fastball that clocks in the late 80’s, early 90’s, and a good slider and an average changeup. The slider is his best pitch and is an excellent out pitch.
The Bad: Stuffwise, Roemer is quite ordinary and none of his pitches are anything more than average. His size and lack of explosiveness makes it very likely he’s going to be a setup man in the future.
Projection: Low. Roemer will get every chance to start, but ultimately, I think he’ll be shifted to the pen, which isn’t a bad thing. It’s just kinda what Roemer is, a very good, but not great prospect.
What He Can Be: A capable setup man.
2008 Course Of Action: Roemer will be headed to Mobile, where he’ll be pitching with last year’s top pick, Max Scherzer, in what should be a decent looking Baybears squad next year.
11 – Tyrell Worthington (OF)
DOB: 8/2/88
Drafted: 5th Round, 2007, North Carolina High School
2008 Club: Missoula Osprey (Rookie)
Height/Weight: 6-0/190
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Signed away from East Carolina, who saw him as a running back, the Diamondbacks signed to a $220,000 bonus, following the Devil Rays’ pattern of paying for talent.
The Good: Worthington has an enticing power/speed combo, and projects a bit like Carl Crawford (Professionally) or Desmond Jennings (Prospect Wise).
The Bad: Worthington is still raw as a baseball player, and he’ll need a lot of work. However, he was a potential high pick in terms of tools, but his two sport status caused him to fall. Hopefully in time, he’ll become similar to Desmond Jennings, who he projects a lot like.
Projection: Very High. Though he’s at the bottom of my 15, Worthington is one of those players that can blow up big once he begins to take instruction and gains experience. Hopefully, it’ll all work out for Arizona.
What He Can Be: A corner outfielder who can hit near the middle of the order.
2008 Course of Action: Because he’s so raw, Worthington will start at the bottom, where he’ll be able to get his feet wet in the Pioneer league.
12 – Mark Rosen (LHP)
DOB: 6/30/84
Drafted: 5th Round, 2002, Massachusetts High School
2008 Club: Unknown
Height/Weight: 5-11/210
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: A commitment to the University of Miami prevented Rosen from going higher than the fifth round in 2002, but the southpaw was considered one of the nation’s premier prep southpaws.
The Good: Despite his smallish frame, Rosen packs some seriouspunch in him, working with a heater that clocks in the low 90’s and can hit 94 consistently. He’s got a good slider that is his out pitch. He induces a lot of groundouts and, now that he’s a reliever, it’s become obvious that the Diamondbacks' patience in grooming him as a reliever finally paid off.
The Bad: He’s very hittable, which comes with the territory as a groundball pitcher. Really, the issue is that Rosen will may be exposed to the Rule 5 Draft this season if he’s not offered a spot on the 40 Man roster, meaning that all of the Diamondbacks’ hard work could pay off…for someone else.
Projection: Low. Rosen posted some decent numbers in winter ball, and he should be ready sooner or later.
What He Can Be: A lefty setup man.
2008 Course Of Action: Rosen’s future with Arizona is murky at the moment, as he’s not on the 40 man roster and he’ll likely be taken in December’s Rule V Draft if he isn’t protected. We’ll see what happens to him.
13 – Barry Enright (RHP)
DOB: 3/30/86
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2007. Pepperdine
2008 Club: Visalia Oaks (High A)
Height/Weight: 6-3/200
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Enright was the Friday night starter for Pepperdine, but questions about his stuff resulted in him falling to the 2nd round, where he was converted to relief by Arizona. Thus far, he’s been lights up and will likely return to Visalia to start the season.
The Good: Enright’s success has been mostly because he’s got good command and a large amount of deception to keep hitters off balance. His fastball sits in the 88-89 mph range, but he can hit 91-92 if he reaches back. He’s got a good slider that clocks in at 79-80 mph and has late life. He’s also got a changeup that may be salvageable if he wants to be a starter, but it’s not great.
The Bad: None of Enright’s pitches are plus ones and his arsenal isn’t good enough for him to remain a starter unless he somehow manages to salvage the changeup. He’s a bullpen guy.
Projection: Low. Enright could rise quickly, but overall he’s a middle reliever,
What He Can Be: Middle Relief
2008 Course Of Action: Enright is likely going to be starting in the meantime for Visalia, as it's a quick way to build his innings and hasten his development. I still feel he's bullpen bound, however.
14 – Edward Easley (C)
DOB: 12/21/85
Drafted: 1st Round (S), 2007, Mississippi State
2008 Club: Visalia Oaks (High A)
Height/Weight: 6-0/195
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: Rated a second-team All-American coming out of high school, Easley has had a rather vanilla career at Mississipi State, where he has played catcher and third base. His reputation was that of a solid hitter, but the Snakes felt that Easley has the tools to at least be a major league backup in time, though they probably picked him up way too high.
The Good: Easley is a fairly athletic backstop who has shown some ability to play the infield. Easley's bat has improved each year he's been at Mississippi State and he's currently hitting .400, though he's not expected to hit that well at the next level. During infield and between innings, Easley looked like he could barely reach second base with his throws. During the game, however, he threw a bullet to throw a guy out trying to steal, making it a little puzzling for scouts if the plus arm is always there. Easley caught well, received the ball well and blocked balls in the dirt effectively, though his bat has always been better than his glove. He's also played a lot of third base in the past.
The Bad: None of his tools stand out or profile to be above-average at the next level. Easley is a below-average runner, but isn't awful for a catcher. He's got some pop, with eight homers this season, but that's more a testament to the metal bats. He won't be a big power guy as a pro.
Projection: Average. Plate discipline is a necessary, but he hasn’t been able to get the hang of it yet. He’d better, or he’s pretty much screwed.
What He Can Be: Fringy starting catcher/capable backup
2008 Course Of Action: Easley has shown at least some ability with the bat and behind the plate. He's got some power, but is more of a doubles hitter in the future. His skill set profiles more as a backup catcher in the Kelly Stinnett or Doug Mirabelli mold, where he won't get to hit enough to make it matter.
15 – Emilio Bonifacio (2B)
DOB: 4/23/85
Drafted: 2001, Dominican Republic
2008 Club: Tucson Sidewinders (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 5-11/180
Bats/Throws: S/R
The Skinny: Another toolsy player n the Arizona system, Bonifacio put up deceptively good numbers at Mobile this year, but didn’t do to well in limited action with Arizona.
The Good: Bonifacio has great speed and could at the very least have a career as a pinch runner/defensive replacement, a la Miguel Cairo. He’s more of a slap hitter and tries to beat the ball to first.
The Bad: The bat is what keeps Bonifacio as nothing more than a backup as he can’t hit consistently, can’t walk, and has some range issues as well.
Projection: Average. Plate discipline is a necessary, but he hasn’t been able to get the hang of it yet. He’d better, or he’s pretty much screwed.
What He Can Be: A leadoff second baseman.
2008 Course Of Action: Bonifacio will likely be down in Tucson to begin the year, but could be called up in the event a utilityguy gets hurt, or if he’s traded.
Final Thoughts
Mike Rizzo deserves a standing ovation for the job he did during his tenure as the Snakes’ scouting director, as he did a solid job. Many of the building blocks for the current Arizona team are already there, with the potential for more on the way if the system keeps churning out talent. Current GM Josh Byrnes deserves a lot of praise too, as he’s been able to continue to stock the system with solid players and talent in exchange for overpriced or overrated talents that had no place on what he had envisioned for the team (3B Troy Glaus, RHP Javier Vasquez, to name a few.)
The big problem with Arizona is that the system has failed to produce any sort of impact prospects. Outside of Brandon Webb, there really hasn’t been any sort of front line starter produced by the system in years. This could be remedied if the Twins were ever willing to let go of some of their hoard of pitching prospects in exchange for bats (something the Twins suck at developing, but that’s for another column), or if Parker develops as expected. All in all, this remains without a doubt, one of the Top 10 organizations in baseball.
Sources, Scouting Reports, and Thanks to: Kevin Goldstein (Baseball Prospectus), Keith Law (ESPN), Soxprospects.com, B.J. Medrano, Jim Callis And The Rest Of Baseball America, Jonathan Mayo (MLB.com), MiLB.com, Sam Corral and Erica Belmontes, Ernie Carlson, Lonestarball.com, Jamey Newberg (Newbergreport.com), Brewerfan.net and Mike Hindman (Rangers Farm Report)
Scott Boras is at it again, this time with a whole new pitching prospect.
11th Overall Pick, Max Scherzer has signed with the Fort Worth Cats, an independant league club, for the season leading up to the draft.
This was the same club, and the same manuever that last year's Number One Overall Pick, Luke Hochevar, did after he did not come to terms with the Dodgers.
Scherzer will use his time in Fort Worth to showcase his talent before the June draft and is now almost a lock to re-enter the draft, as it doesn't look like the Diamondbacks will sign him.
“I’ve had talks with Luke Hochevar about the Cats and he said he loved it,” Scherzer has said of the move. “The other representatives of Boras said it was a great fit and a great situation for my situation. We just talked about how that went, and he loved it and only had good things to say about the Cats and how the organization was run. He kind of sold me on it – I figured if he had such a good time, might as well sign up.”
The Cats open the season May 10, with the draft June 7-8. Scherzer will make around $1,000 a month, while making five starts in May, with his regular-season debut tentatively scheduled for May 12.
Scherzer went 7-3 with a 2.25 earned-run average last year for the University of Missouri. He had his best season with the Tigers as a sophomore, as the 6-foot-2 right-hander went 9-4 with a conference-best 1.86 ERA and set a school record with 131 strikeouts. Scherzer was named Big 12 Pitcher of the Year and a Baseball America second-team All-American.
Scherzer also said, “I don’t have to worry about the draft, I don’t have to worry about the signing bonus, because I have to go out there and all I have to do is my best. All I have to do is pitch, just block everything out and do my best and the rest will take care of itself.
I won't be able to catch Scherzer pitch, as the Cats won't be in El Paso until after he's gone. But again, this situation bears watching, as it has the chance to impact the draft.
This year's right hander class is rather weak in impact pitching, with only Andrew Brackman being the best bet for a front of the line starter.
Scherzer has good quality stuff and has less questions about his ability than Brackman, who is a former basketball player that has only committed to baseball full time this year.
However, there is questions as to whether or not this is the best move for Scherzer. Unlike Hochevar, who fell because of signability reasons, but was otherwise a first round talent, Scherzer was picked high. The main reason for all of the fuss, as well as why he hasn't signed yet, is probably because Mike Rizzo left for the Nationals.
Rizzo still likes Scherzer's talent. It will be interesting to see what happens if Scherzer is around when the Nationals pick.
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