There have been a lot of rumors recently about the Cubbies wanting to make a trade for Marlon Byrd, ideally to be their centerfielder and to help push Felix Pie. Apparently, the deal would be for Matt Murton and possibly for pitching prospect Sean Gallagher.
This deal likely doesn't have much legs on it, if any.
First of all, as good as the Byrdman's seaosn was last year, I doubt he suddenly had a breakout in his early 30's. More than likely, he'll regress to his usual fourth outfielder status come April.
Second, I wouldn't trade Murton for Byrd straight up if I were the Cubs, but if they are willing to do it, I'd pull the trigger. Hell, I'd even include a pair of relievers in the deal for Murton and Gallagher, likely Scott Feldman and Robinson Tejeda. Not only would that give the Cubs more options to sift through, it opens up space on the 40 Man for someone.
However, as promising as the deal seemed, I doubt it will happen.
Complicating things further are the fact that the Padres want Murton as well, though I'm not sure what they would give up in return. San Diego usually tries to pass off their #### on other teams (as the Rangers would find out during the infamous Chris Young deal) and their GM is a very smart man. It's very much likely that somehow or another, Kevin Towers will find a way to make any trade a three trade deal, and in return would somehow find a way to screw over the Rangers by managing to net Murton himself and leaving the Rangers on the short end of the stick.
Possible Draft Pick Compensation?
The Rangers could also find themselves enjoying a beavy of picks in next years draft if all falls right (unlikely, but it's good to hope.)
While none of the Rangers' one year commitments are going to be Type A Picks, there could be several first round sandwich picks, depending on what happens:
Jason Jennings (RHP) - Recovery from a bad year could result in a Type B pick for Texas if he proves to be healthy.
Milton Bradley (RF) - Staying sane and healthy could get him a job as a DH somewhere.
Ben Broussard (1B) - Could be the next Ryan Kelsko, getting the Rangers a solid pick without doing much.
All in all, that's potentially three picks for the Rangers if the rankings fall right, five if somehow or another Jennings and Bradley are able to rate as Type A's.
Well apparently, the Rangers have signed Milton Bradley to a one year, $5 million contract, with some incentives. The deal is pending a physical, and because the Padres declined to offer him arbitration, the Rangers don’t cede a pick to the Padres.
The deal is a risk, both because Bradley is both injury prone and batshit crazy, but Bradley, to be honest, is actually now the best outfielder on the squad and will likely slide over to centerfield once the leg heals up.
Are you gambling that Wash, who Bradley wanted to reunite with, and whom is a Washington favorite, can keep him in line? Yes. Could it work? We’ll see. Bradley will likely miss time in the beginning of the season and will stay at DH until June or so.
What will this do to Jason Botts?
What we’ll likely see is a rotation of Botts, Cat, and Shelton at Left Field and Third Base until Bradley is completely healthy. It’s a workable compromise and will keep everyone healthy until things are sorted out.
Will the Rangers do any other improvements to the outfield? That remains to be seen. Bradley isn’t blocking anyone long term and his salary isn’t prohibitive. With Fukudome now a Cub, the only real free agent option available is off the table. That means that the Rangers will likely have to look at the non-tender market later today or the trade market. More on that in a bit…
Going To War With The Rotation You Have
The meme in Texas is that the Rangers need pitching.
My answer to that?
Where is it?
I’ve checked the free agent market. Unless you’re willing to roll the dice on Bartolo Colon or Freddy Garcia, there is no potential Number One or Two starters. When the best options are Kyle Lohse and Carlos Silva, back of the rotation dudes at best, that goes to show you that the market is just awful.
Now, if you want to do some trading on the market, you could find some pitchers that could be had for prospects, especially those on teams that may be looking to rebuild.
The Rangers have the ammunition to go after Johan Santana, and Tom Hicks has the funds to do it.
They could also go after Dan Haren, though I think they prefer not to trade within the division.
However, all of these deals come with a price. You lose valuable young players who can keep you competitive while spending little in these trades. You also lack that valuable pipeline of young talent to replace aging players. Michael Young won’t last forever and will likely be the Rangers’ third baseman by 2011, by which time either Elvis Andrus or Marcus Lemon will be taking over the position. Also, who will replace Padilla, who will book after 2009, and Kevin Millwood, who will book after 2010? Are you going to want to have to turn to the Jamey Wright’s and Carlos Silva’s to give you innings?
This season is a lost cause anyway, but it will serve as a way to give the kids innings while keeping the team cost effective FOR NOW. The Rangers are hoarding their dollars for the next superstar that may hit the market, by which time, there will be enough of a team for that future star to push the Rangers over the top.
Plus, the Rangers may have their own homegrown rotation sooner than you think.
Eric Hurley is nearly ready. So is Matt Harrison. The Rangers have a plethora of young arms in the lower minors, with some of them beginning to rise to the top.
Give things time. Frivolously throwing money away on mediocre starters is a poor way to build a ball club.
Ask the Cubs.
Off season Deals That I Thank God Didn’t Work Out
Mark Mulder (2006) – This was a buy low opportunity, but oh man was this bullet one I’m glad misfired. Mulder looks toast right now, something that no one thought back in the day, when he was arguably the best of the Big Three.
Barry Zito (2006) – This was a deal I actually campgained hard for, but am glad it didn't work out. Zito has been an out and out disaster for San Fran. He eats innings and...doesn't do much else.
Matt Morris (2005) – The Rangers actually went pretty hard after Morris, who was coming off of a very good year with the Cardinals and had long since had a reputation for being a good clubhouse guy and a outdated rep for being a great starting pitcher. Two years later and this deal is easily one of the biggest busts we’ve seen this decade.
Carlos Delgado (2004) – Yes, the Rangers did try to make a run at Delgado, with the idea of making him the starting first baseman and Mark Teixiera the everyday left fielder. Fortunately, he signed with Florida, who blew Texas’ offer away, and then would trade him after a single season.
Rangers Close To Signing Reliever
The Rangers are close to signing Japanese Reliever Kazo Fukumori to a two year deal, whcih would add another veteren reliever to the pen at a cheap price. Fukumori was injured in Japan last year, but could pay big dividends if he's ready.
More Trade Speculation
Noah Lowry (RHP – Giants) – On paper, this looks like a decent acquisition, as any time you can add a young starter is a good deal. Look closer, however, and I’d stay clear away from Lowry. His control is rather bad, he’s not much of an innings eater and he’s always been much more mortal away from A####mp;T Park. I heard one rumor stating that trading Ian Kinsler for him would get it done. I say nay.
Andre Ethier (RF – Dodgers) – Etheir is the odd man out in Los Angeles with Pierre moving to left field, Kemp likely in right and Jones in center and is reportedly being targeted by the Rangers. I’d totally do this if the Dodgers were willing, but a trade package might be hard to come up with. The Dodgers would likely ask for Eric Hurley or Edinson Volquez, with the Rangers offering Armando Galaragga and a few other prospects in return. It just remains to be seen if a deal can be reached that will be amicable to all parties.
Austin Kearns (RF – Nationals) – Kearns looks like he’s due for a bounce back season and playing in RFK probably didn’t help his numbers much. He’s signed to a very affordable long term deal and with the Nationals carrying four outfielders (five if they move Dmitri Young), Kearns is the odd man out. I’d be okay with signing him, especially since Kearns can reasonably play center, it’s just that the Nationals ask for the sun, moon, and stars for their players.
Matt Murton (OF – Cubs) – Murton hasn’t been given a fair shake by the Cubs to prove himself, as they’ve preferred to go after sexier names in the free agent market.
Mark DeRosa (2B – Cubs) – If the Cubs do acquire another player, I’d strongly ask them for Rosie if they won’t trade Murton. Rosie would have a chance to play everyday in Texas, likely in Right Field.
The Pittsburgh Pirates acquired shortstop Cesar Izturis and cash considerations from the Chicago Cubs in exchange for a player to be named.
What the hell is this supposed to do?
Izturis has hit .246 with no home runs and 8 RBI's for the Cubs. Jack Wilson, the Pirates' current shortstop, has hit .254 with 4 home runs and 28 RBI's. Both are mostly regarded to be powerless offensive players that are excellent defenders, though Izturis has a bit more speed.
Was this supposed to push Jack Wilson in some way, possibly give him the idea that his job is in danger?
Who knows?
At least he came cheap for the Pirates, unlike the Cubs.
The Cubs gave up Greg Maddux in return for him, a costly price when the Cubs should have pushed for more in return for their Hall of Famer.
Oh well. It's a questionable move on both parts, but I guess it's just Lou Pinella further pushing players he doesn't want out of the clubhouse.
Just in case you're wonder who's already fallen victim...
Matt Murton (LF) - It's almost sad to see what has happened to him. The Pirates should have asked for Murton too, while they were at it.
Jacque Jones (RF) - Chicago ####ked up. They should have sold high this off-season. They didn't. Now they're stuck with him and this situation could get ugly.
Michael Barrett (C) - Barrett has played better since leaving Chicago, even though he's now splitting time on a regular basis with Josh Bard.
The Angels are currently rolling in the American League West and need only another power bat in the lineup to help themselves out.
Unlike most years, where the Angels have been content to march out whatever team they had available, the Angels have actually tried to upgrade several parts of the team. There seems to be a sense of urgency around the Halos, possibly because this may be the last year that they can win with the current set of Halos before they begin to transition some of their players in the minors to the majors.
The Angels are said to be considering using the speedy and versatile Chone Figgins as part of a trade package for an impact bat, along with a seeminly resurgent Ervin Santana. Santana's attributes we've discussed in detail in this blog. Figgins is very popular among many general managers who like that "sparkplug" type of player in their lineup. Several teams have expressed interest in the super-utility player, the White Sox and the Yankees being the chief suitors for both.
Looking at the Angels' lineup, the team needs more offense coming out of Third Base and Left Field, as Garrett Anderson and Vlad Guerrero will likely be making rounds at the DH spot to allow not only both players time to rest, but also to be able to allow the team to work in regular DH Juan Rivera and to keep the surprise of this season, Reggie Willits, in the lineup. So, it looks like Third Base will be the best option for the Halos to upgrade, unless Kotchman is able to slide over to third for a season or so.
That seemed to be the theory recently when reports came out that the Angels inquired about possibly getting Adam Dunn from the Reds. Talks died when the Reds asked for "a proven Major League starting pitcher, a Major League infielder - preferably a second baseman - and a top prospect."
Translation:
RHP - Ervin Santana (understandable, since the Angels have been shopping him)
INF - Erick Aybar or Chone Figgins (don't the Reds already have a full middle infield? Does that mean that Brandon Phillips is on the way out? Figgs would make more sense then Aybar in this case and would be understandable, as he could eventually move to the outfield to sub for the loss of Dunn.)
Top Prospect - Likely either 3B Brandon Wood, RHP Nick Adenhart, or Aybar anywhay.
And that, my friends, was probably the deal breaker. The Angels hoard their prospects like a dragon does gold and to lose a top prospect would kill any deal that they choose to do.
The Angels could give Jermaine Dye a shot if they thought they could get him for just Figgins and Santana, and such a role would work, as the Angels would be getting rid of a pair of players nearing arbitration and the White Sox would be getting more pieces to rebuild. Y ou have to admit, Figgins manning center would be a lot better than seeing Darin Erstad and his porcelian knees running around out there.
Other options:
Mark Teixeira (1B - Rangers) - Possible, but unlikely, as the Angels would hate to see some of the players that they traded away come back to haunt them in the same division.
Mike Lowell (3B - Red Sox) - The only way I could see this happening only if the Red Sox slide Youkilis to Third and obtaining Teixeira from the Rangers. That's the only way, but both teams are stingy with their prospects and won't give up anything of value if they had their way, which is a shame, as a package of LHP Jon Lester and SS Ericky Aybar would be tempting.
Scott Rolen (3B - Cardinals) - The Cards need positional players and they could get a couple of good ones if the Angels are willing to dicker. Rolen starting slowly, but he may need a change of scenery and maybe get away from Tony LaRussa.
Nomar Garciaparra (1B - Dodgers) - Nomar could be able to handle Third, as I think he's got enough left to man it for a year and a half. Unfortunately, neither team has parts that they would be able to match up with.
Mark Loretta (UTIL - Astros) - Loretta is currently hitting well and the Astros are pretty much out of contention. If the Angels were willing to offer pieces that the Astros needed, say catcher Jeff Mathis, I think the Astros would be willing to go for it. Morgan Ensberg is another option.
Zambrano Likely To Hit Free Agency
I hate to break it to you Cubs fans, but it sounds like Carlos Zambrano is done in Chi-Town. Zambrano has been awful for much of the season and his brawl with Michael Barrett only figures to spur the Cubs to allow their one time ace to leave via free agency.
Part of the reason is the sale of the Tribune Company, which as pretty much frozen the Cubs’ assets and prevents the Cubbies from spending a ton on extravagant contracts like they did this past off-season, where they spent over $300 million. With ownership in flux, the Cubs are under a strict budget and will not toe the line anytime soon.
Another part is the fact that the Cubs appear to have a set young core of talent in the rotation. Rich Hill is looking like another Barry Zito and Sean Marshall looks like he may yet become a capable end of the rotation lefty. Jason Marquis and Ted Lilly, two players that the Cubs were chastised for signing, are instead looking very much like they’re worth their money. And while Zambrano’s presence at the top of the rotation is a plus, the Cubs may be able to stay in contention with their rotation as is and look for a capable fifth starter option instead.
There is one other reason why Zambrano also won’t stay with the Cubs. Zambrano is said to be considering re-hiring Scott Boras as his agent. Should he go that route, Zambrano will almost certainly be priced out of the Cubs’ range, as the two New York Teams would love to have Zambrano’s youth and ability in their rotation.
The Cubs Make More Mistakes With Murton
Matt Murton was sent to Triple-A Iowa on Wednesday, returning to the minors for the first time since being called up in July 2005. The reason, given by Lou Piniella, is that Murton’s changed his batting stance over the winter that that Pinella advised him to return to his original stance.
Murton, however, has a different opinion, stating that his low production isn’t about a chance in his stance (he says he hasn’t changed it, btw). It’s about the fact that he hasn’t gotten any playing time because the Cubs signed one too many outfielders. They signed Alfonso Soriano and have abandoned the experiment after Soriano tweeked a hamstring. They decided to go hard after Cliff Floyd to platoon with Murton even though Murton didn’t need a platoon partner and now they are rushing Felix Pie to play center and they failed to trade Jacque Jones, who would have welcomed a trade and even better yet, can play centerfield.
I really don’t think the Cubs know what the hell they are doing?
Murton will probably be dangled in exchange for bullpen help, and as I’ve said several times, teams need to take advantage of the Cubs’ incompetence for just badly managing Murton this year.
Remember when I mentioned how the Cubs might part with might with outfielder Matt Murton, especially since it seems that the club is rapidly running out of places to play him.
Well, apparently, the trade rumors are on. According to Baseball Prospectus' John Perrotto, the Cubs are desperate for bullpen help and are willing to trade Murton in exchange for some arms.
Again, if I were the Rangers, Murton is exactly the type of person I would look into bringing in. He's young, plays a good left field, hits for some power and average, and has years of service time left.
I think I would use this time shop a couple of bullpen arms right now, if I were Texas. Scott Feldman, Willie Eyre, and someone else that is maybe rotting down in Oklahoma instead of with the big league club could work, though it would be a steal in favor of the Rangers.
Anyhow, let's see where this goes. Again, I think Chicago is stupid for wanting to trade him, but this is a club built to win now and damn the consequences.
Headed to the Gym right now, but I did see something that caught my eye.
On Baseball Prospectus, Nate Silver observes the current Cubs outfield situation. With Soriano being switched to left, Pie staying in center and some combination of Jacque Jones and Cliff Floyd in right, it's likely that the Cubs are going to demote Matt Murton.
Note to Jon Daniels. The Rangers have excess bullpen arms...and no left fielder beyond 2007. Go get us some Murton. He'd fit right in the offense. And, after Brad Wilkerson shows that he's capable of staying healthy, flip him for a prospect. Kill too birds with one stone.
Coming up on Friday Morning Closer...Brett Myers As A Closer, Matt Murton Could Be Gone, 2006 Free Agent Relievers, And The State Of Japanese Baseball.
Myers As A Closer? It Could Work
I know that the Phillies didn't give Brett Myers a three-year, $25.75 million contract this winter because they viewed him as a set-up man., but quite frankly, this is a deal that could possible work.
Myers has been awful thus far as a starter and it's possible that his new bullpen role would allow for him to be able to work out the kinks in his delivery and get back into the swing of things.
Plus, Myers could spell Tom Gordon and could emerge as a All-Star Closer.
This wasn't the plan. I know. The Phillies were hoping Freddy Garcia would slot in well enough to make Jon Lieber expendable, and Lieber would be flipped for a solid bullpen guy.
But it didn't happen and unfortunately, Myers had to be moved into the bullpen, as he's the only one who's got the stuff to throw for strikes.
But, who knows, Myers could blossom into the next great closer in the National League.
It could happen.
2006 Free Agency – Middle Relievers/Setup Men
The middle relief market figures to heat up this season, as the Orioles kind of set the market last season with all the money they splurged on fixing their bullpen. Unfortunately, there really isn’t all that many names here in terms of players that have a set track record of success. Hence, this market is going to be more of a #### shoot than this last off-season’s was.
Scott Linebrink (Padres) – Linebrink will be hitting the market at a time where middle relief is held to a premium. As a result, people are going to go gaga over Linebrink, who’s a solid setup man, much like Justin Speier was when he entered the market, and are going to overpay for him by a lot.
Naoyuki Shimizu (Chiba Lotte Marines) – [If He Comes Over]. Shimizu has always wanted to come over and has requested to be posted off-season after off-season, but has never been. He’s going to be a free agent and is almost certainly going to cross over. Shimizu is an average closer, but he’s rather effective as a long reliever and could be a valuable part of someone’s bullpen.
Kerry Wood (Cubs) – Currently in extended Spring Training, no one knows what the hell to expect from Mr. Wood. I think the Cubs are finally ready to cut bait and won’t bring him back, in spite of how much he loves the Cubbies. So, anyone that is willing to give him a shot had better hope that he can stay healthy (good luck). I’d classify him as a closer, but he has no track record as one and will have to earn his way to that role.
Armando Benitez (Giants) – Ick, not much you can say. Benitez’s days as a closer are likely done, but he could make for a average setup man in the right system. Hmmm, the Cardinals could come calling.
Jorge Julio (Marlins) – Julio is long regarded to have closers stuff, but he’s never gotten it together and at this point, may never get it together. As a result, Julio is kind of caught in that purgatory of the spot closer.
Brett Tomko (Dodgers) – [If $4.5Million Mutual Option Declined]. Tomko is a middle reliever that tries to pass himself off as a starter, mostly because people continue to give him a shot as one. However, he’s an effective long reliever and setup man and could extend his career if he chooses to embrace the role, which he did for a brief shining moment last year.
Japanese Baseball Needs To Change…Fast
Japanese baseball is already in full swing, but already the game seems more and more empty.
The losses of many of the best players in the game has hurt the sport in more ways than one.
An exodus that begun with Nomo and has continued most recently with Igawa, Matsuzaka and Iwamura’s move has confirmed the latest talent drain from the sport.
Under Japanese baseball rules, a player cannot become a free agent until after playing nine seasons of professional baseball. But the posting system, which allows teams to send players over before they become free agents, has hurt the sport in more ways than it has helped, thanks to teams seeking to cash in on their talent, but has hurt the overall game. The Seibu Lions, a team that was under immense financial debt, pocketed $51.1 million from the Red Sox for the negotiating rights to Matsuzaka, much as the Orix BlueWave did when they posted star Ichiro Suzuki years ago.
But the quick cash hasn’t done much to help the clubs. Orix eventually had to merge with the Kintetsu Buffaloes to stay in business, in spite of the Ichiro Posting Fee, and the overall talent drain has started to hurt ratings as well as hurt attendance in stadiums all around the league. Even the Yomimuri Giants, the former club of Hideki Matsui, has begun to feel the pain of the talent drain and has changed their sink or swim approach to the rest of the league and now wants to help stop the drain before it affects them.
Some owners have suggested putting limits on the system, and indeed, after the Matsuzaka fiasco, it looks like the posting system will be changed to stop the clubs from flooding the market with talent in order to cash in.
But that’s not the only problem.
The draft process is a sham, and has resulted in the best players heading towards the richer teams, as well as the recent scandal involving the Lions making illicit payments to amateur players around the country has resulted in questions regarding the entire process.
The Union also needs reform and is probably the weakest union in pro sports, even weaker than that of the mighty NFL. Plus, with the potential that the majors could be preparing an international draft, as well as major league academies opening up in the Far East poses a major threat to the Japanese League as we know it.
In that regard, changes need to happen for the Japanese League to survive. Limits on the posting process need to be made, as well as there being a concretive effort to keep the talent home instead of risking all of it going abroad.
Another decision that also could be made is for both American and Japanese Leagues to also develop a sort of trading system, as a way for major league clubs in Japan to be able to trade prospects with those in America. While this could result in a culture clash of unknown proportions, it would also allow both sides of the pacific to get a taste of both worlds.
There is too much to be done in order to fix Japanese Baseball, but in the long run, it would be better off, for both leagues, to ensure it’s survival. The Japanese Leagues have been around for over 50 years and have their own legends and traditions that go on. It would be a shame to see them disappear.
Matt Murton Could Be Available
With Felix Pie now in Chi-Town, there is rumors that he could be there to stay, where his defense would allow Alfonso Soriano to slide over to right field as soon as he's ready to.
However, who's playing time will this come at an expense to. Many point to Jacque Jones, who's playing awful at the moment. The Cubbies would also love to lose his salary and gain something in return for him, maybe a prospect or a solid reliever.
However, on ESPN Radio on Tuesday, Keith Law actually reported that it would be Matt Murton that would be dealt, not Jones, if the Cubbies decide to keep Pie in the majors.
The move has some logic. Let's look at the facts.
Law's rationale was that Murton does not fit the Lou Pinellai type of player, in that he's a quiet guy, respectable and that he keeps to himself. Also, Pinella wanted to stick with Jones for the season and when it came down to which corner would lose time to Cliff Floyd, Murton was automatically given the boot.
I got better reasons why.
Murton Is Productive. Murton is the type of player that could average about .290, 15, 80 in the majors while playing a solid left field, as he doesn't have the range for center nor does he have the arm for right.
Salary. The Reason why the Cubbies would keep Murton is the same reason why they want to get rid of Jones. Murton is still under the coveted 0-3 service time label and isn't eligable for arbitration until after next season.
Upside. Murton has great value in that he's the type of player you want farther back in the order and that he's going to only get better. Jones, meanwhile, is going to be appraoching his declien phase soon and no one is really interested in a declining semi-slugger that has a high price tag on him.
Return Package. Murton would also result in the higher return on the investment for the Cubs. In exchange for Jones, the Cubbies would still have to pay his salary in order to get anything of consequence out of their trade partner. As for Murton, the Cubs could get a nice prospect or a promising piece of a bullpen or bench player that could help the club now.
So, there you have it. If anyone is interested, please call the Cubbies before they come to their senses.
The Cubbies boosted the payroll dramatically by spending nearly $300 million in free agency to boost their payroll (and surrendering some draft picks in the process, never a wise move.) However, for all of the offensive improvements that were done, they still have glaring weaknesses, namely the rotation and the bullpen.
Starting Rotation
Carlos Zambrano (RHP) – Zambrano is one of a few pitchers I would tab as a certifiable ace. His stuff is fantastic and he’s proven to be durable for much of the time, though people also argue that all those innings racked up at an early age spell future arm troubles, a la Pedro. Zambrano is a strikeout machine that can dominate you at any given time and should put of another Cy Young caliber performance, especially when you consider the fact that he’s entering his walk year this season, with several clubs looking to give him a huge deal. The Big Z himself has issued an ultimatum that unless he gets an extension now, he's gone. We’ll see what happens, as I think there is a very good chance that he leaves Wrigley after this year.
Rich Hill (RHP) – Hill came out of nowhere, dominating the league after a shaky start, going 6-3 with a 2.92 ERA and 79 strikeouts in 13 games (12 starts) in the second half. Part of this was that he was able to successfully add better supplemental pitches to his great curveball and he began to display some durability. Still, Hill hasn’t been consistent in his career, so depending him on as a number two is a bit of a stretch.
Ted Lilly (LHP) – Lilly has had some durability issues in his career, but he has been solid the last couple of years, either a sign that he’s finally put his history of injuries behind him or just a calm before a storm. Lilly should actually do very well in the National League as he was one of the top AL lefties the past few years, with only Santana and maybe Zito ahead of him. When you compare Lilly with Zito, the other major lefty to go NL, Lilly could actually be a wiser investment as his stuff is actually better than Zito, who’s performance was heavily tied to Oakland’s outstanding defense.
Jason Marquis (RHP) – Okay, this is a puzzling addition. Marquis was destroyed last season with the Cardinals, who left him off the playoff roster. Add in the fact that Marquis has also been reluctant to accept instruction from pitching coaches and pretty much does what he wants and I thought he’d take a one year deal, prove himself and re-enter the market. Marquis isn’t a lost cause. If he’s able to make some changes in the way he pitches, he could be a bargain.
Mark Prior (LHP) – Prior seems due for a rebound after years of injuries taking away his opportunity to be a star. His stuff was still solid during limited action last season and it’s possible that he could regain some durability if his starts are limited at the fifth starter role. In the event that he does falter, there are some fall back options, though they’re not good ones.
Bullpen
Ryan Dempster (Closer) – Dempster is the shakiest closer entering the season, mostly because he has the prior experience to do so. He’s likely to be average at best, making it tempting to switch to Kerry Wood as the season goes on.
Kerry Wood (Setup Man) – Wood will probably wind up as the setup man, a role that he excelled in during limited duty. Long term, Wood could be a dominant closer, where he would be able to use his stuff in limited outings and not have to worry about the potential damage his explosive delivery will do over the course o####ame.
Bob Howry (RHP) – This veteran right hander can provide good 7th inning relief and can spot close if need be.
Neil Cotts (LHP) – Cotts had been the Sox' top lefty reliever on the 2005 World Series winner, but he has had some bad outings sicne then and was traded this past season. Cotts can still become a awesome situational left hander, so it’s possible that a change of scenery (award from Chicago’s home run friendly park) will be good for him.
Wade Miller (RHP) – Miller wasn’t bad in his limited outing after TJ surgery and the Cubs were heartened enough with his performance that they brought him back for another go. With all the off-season signings, Miller will likely be pushed to the bullpen unless Prior self destructs.
Scott Eyre (LHP) – A solid lefty reliever, Eyre dominates right handers, but gets killed by lefties.
Michael Wuertz (RHP) – Wuertz should provide another setup option, in case Wood decides to make his annual trip to the DL.
Projected Lineup
Alfonso Soriano (CF) – Soriano not only proved he could hit in RFK, but he also proved that he could handle a new position. With his newly minted status as a 40/40 club member, Soriano cashed in big with the Cubs, who sought an improvement over their existing centerfielder, Juan Pierre. He should hit for power and steal some bases, but the strikeouts will hurt at the worst time and really, he isn’t the type of player that deserves as huge of a paycheck as he got. He’ll be brutal at the tail end of the deal.
Mark DeRosa (2B) – The Rangers made a competitive offer to keep their utilityman, but DeRosa chose the prospect of starting full time in the infield over being shuffled across the diamond. DeRosa finally seemed to put it together offensively, possibly due to his emulation of Michael Young and Rudy Jaramillo’s teachings, and while he won’t be as good as he was in 2006, he should be capable of hitting .280 and producing well in the second spot.
Derrek Lee (1B) – Lee severely underperformed after his breakout 2005, but it’s also likely that that 2005 was an fluke and he is returning to what he usually is, a solid first baseman that hits well at the third spot. I think he’ll produce well at the third spot, hitting around .300 with some power, but he’s not going to be a dominant run producer.
Aramis Ramirez (3B) – Ramirez erupted during the second half, hitting .328 with 22 home runs and 67 RBI’s in 72 games and promptly opted out of his contract to get himself a megabucks deal. When compared to some of the other deals that were signed on the market, the Cubs actually got somewhat of a bargain on him. Hitting cleanup, Ramirez should take advantage of the RBI opportunities that are made available to him and should be a 30 home run threat for the next five years or so.
Jacque Jones (RF) – In spite of Jones wanting out, I think he’ll likely stay in Chicago because, to be frank, the Cubs need him. Jones hit for power and for average, plus gives some balance to the lineup as a left handed hitter. His defense is pretty good he’s got a little bit of speed on his wheels. Hitting fifth, Jones should be a solid run producer. Oh, and as for the trade rumors? Jones could be dealt at the deadline if the Cubs are out of contention or need a starter and Felix Pie is ready.
Michael Barrett (C) – A solid offensive catcher, Barrett should be great this year, as he’ll be entering his prime as a catcher, plus will be placed in a good spot in the lineup for him to do his thing. Now, about that thing with A.J. Pierzynski…
Matt Murton (LF) – Why the Cubs want to platoon Murton is beyond me. He had a very good year, hitting .291 with 13 home runs and 62 RBI’s, and hit both left and right handed pitching well. His defense is very good with the possibility of improving as he gets more time and with a year and a half of service time under his belt, he’s a cheap date for the next few years. Again, I don’t understand the Cubs braintrust at all.
Cesar Izturis (SS) – I’d have thought the Cubs would have gotten much more for Greg Maddux. Instead, they get a solid defender that can’t hit enough to save his life.
Bench
Ronny Cedeno (IF) – A solid defender, Cedeno didn’t do much to establish himself, prompting the Cubs to seek another shortstop option. The crazy thing is, Cedeno could probably still be a better option than Izturis.
Cliff Floyd (OF) – Yeah, I know, the bat is awesome when he’s healthy. But really, what was the Cubs’ fascination for a hitter that’s clearly on the decline and will likely be a defensive statue when he is taking away at bats from Matt Murton?
Henry Blanco (C) – Not a bad option, as far as backup catchers go. He’s got some solid production as far as his bat goes and his glove is average.
Angel Pagan (OF) – Pagan is likely going to be the forth outfielder role, as he can play the corners and can hit reasonably well. But he’s terrible against lefties, meaning his options are limited.
Ryan Theriot (IF) – Another infield, Theriot was pretty good in limited duty and can play the corner infield if necessary.
Down On The Farm…
A weak system, depleted by trades and poor scouting, That sums up the Cubs in a nutshell.
Sean Marshall (LHP) – Marshall made his debut last season and it was as good as can be expected, going 6-9 with a 5.59 ERA, plus giving up a alarming 20 home runs. To be fair, Marshall was also directly promoted from Double A, so it’s likely that he still needs some growing time. Marshall’s best pitch is a slider that induces ground balls and he’s got decent command, but he needs a third pitch to go with his fastball in order for him to have long-term success in the majors.
Felix Pie (CF) – The Cubs’ uber-prospect at the moment, Pie has a long, lanky body and has three of the coveted five tools (power, speed, arm strength). His body is still projectable and he’s young enough to improve as time passes. However, Pie needs to get some plate discipline as he tries too hard for the long ball and lefties have owned him for years. He also needs to develop some more instincts as far as centerfield is concerned, but he should be able to stick. Pie is likely to stay in the minors for another year, as he’s not quite ready for the big club yet.
Eric Patterson (2B) –Patterson is an athletic second baseman with leadoff potential and speed on the base paths. He’s a solid defender with a strong arm that should help the pitchers once he makes the big club. However, Patterson gets killed against good lefties, hence he needs some more time to be able to adjust, time that the Cubs are willing to give him, unlike his brother, Corey.
Scott Moore (IF/OF) – Moore was acquired along Bo Flowers for Kyle Farnsworth and he seems to be screwed long term with Lee, Ramirez, Murton and Soriano blocking all of his spots. Moore has got good power and seems to be a functional defender, but he also racks up strikeouts and may be a DH long term. Which again, there is no spot for with the Cubs. He’s likely going to be traded for help this season, depending on how well he does this season.
Jeff Samardzija (RHP) – Just for kicks, let’s check out Samardzija, taking material from Dayn Perry (shudder), Baseball Prospectus and Keith Law. Samardzija has great height and could pack on some more weight on his frame n the future. Theoretically, he could become a power pitcher, as he’s got a mid 90’s fastball that hits the upper 90’s at times, and he’s got the makings o####ood slider, but he needs to develop it plus add a third pitch to be a solid starter in the majors. Plus, consider the fact that he’s never dedicated himself wholly to baseball until now. Hence, he’s really raw and the Cubs need to work with him slowly, in order to properly monitor the investment they’re making in him.
In Conclusion
The Cubs will likely be in the mix for the NL Central Crown until at least the last month of the season. But the Cubbies are gambling on Marquis and Prior to be some semblance of their former selves and the pen is solid on paper, but far from a sure thing. The Offense will be better, so long as the Cubs keep Murton in the lineup often, but in all honesty, I don't think the Cubs have done much but improve themselves more than three places. In conclusion, this team will likely finish above .500, but just a few games out of first.
Final Standing: Third Place In The National League Central
I'm a long time Texas Rangers fan who has come to love baseball as a whole. I recently began this blog as a way for me to showcase my opinions, provide some analysis, and hopefully entertain those who happen to stumble upon my little soapbox online. I'll toss in an NFL, College, or NBA nugget every now and then. Enjoy the posts everyone, and yes, getting a little love in a Deadspin post was probably the highlight of the year, blogwise.
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