I've had about enough of the Johan Santana rumor mill.

It's becoming increasingly obvious that he'll be there opening day with the Twins and will remain with them till at least the trade deadline.

Why?

Because it's becoming increasinly obvious that there is a lot of chatter from all sides, but no action.  Usually, the more rumors that are passed around about a player, the more unlikely it's going to happen.  It's like talking the whole night how you're going to go after the prettiest girl in the room, but at the end of the night, you're going back home to nothing but a hard drive full of porn and a full box of kleenex.

Sorry for the visual analogy, but that's what it's become in the Santana Sweepstakes, which have become nothing more than just a lot of shock jock fodder and a whole lot of New York centric media opinions (oh god, the New York media opionions!  Newsday has become unreadable!)  I swear to god, if I hear one more Hank Steinbrenner quote, I'll go up to Yankee Stadium myself and stuff his father's turtleneck in his piehole, just so he'd shut up!

BTW, is it just me, or is Steinbrenner the Younger seeming to enjoy the limelight that comes with his new job.  I think he's likely to follow in his father's footsteps, which means that the Yankees will be sucking in about five to eight years, thanks to Hank trading away the farm and signing the various Mel Hall and Danny Tartabull types on a whim.

The fact is, a trade should have already happened, as Boston, New York and New York should have pulled the trigger on a deal.

And spare me the talk about how Santana would require a huge contract extension that makes him unaffordable.  All three of these teams would be lining up to get into a money fight for Santana if he hits the market next winter.

And the Yankees are the last one's to be preaching fiscal responsibility.  Didn't they just spend $275 million on Alex Rodriguez?  They can easily afford to extend Santana, who fills a need and has more upside to any Yankee prospect with the exception of Joba.  They have $58.3 million coming off the books anyway, not counting the sunk costs of $6.95 million for paying Giambi and Pavano to go away.

Don't snicker Red Sox fans.  You all aren't any better.  You have about the same amount of money leaving the books, with Manny and Varitek's contracts coming off the books.  And you have the farm system depth to fill the holes as well. 

The Twins too also have to be reasonable.  You aren't going to get a team to completely gut their system for Santana.   It's unrealistic.  You need to get teams to agree to a reasonable set of demands and flip as soon as the best deal comes up. 

Financial reasons aside, here is what the Twins should reasonably expect to get for their ace:

• 1 High Quality Pitching Prospect
• 1 High Quality Positional Prospect
• 1 Above Average Pitching Prospect
• 1 Average Prospect Or Young Player

Here are the offers for each team:

Boston - Jon Lester (LHP), Jed Lowrie (SS/2B), Justin Masterson (RHP), Coco Crisp (CF)

I honestly don't know why the Twins haven't agreed to this deal, as it matches up with my qualifications perfectly.  I think the Twins are hoping that Boston will toss in Clay Buchholz, which won't happen.  Lester is an above average lefty who could be a number two starter.  Lowrie could start for Minnesota now and be the best second baseman they've had since Chuck Knoblauch.  Masterson has the potential to be a good pitcher in this league and Crisp helps give Minnesota a solid outfield for the first time in years.

New York (AL) - Phil Hughes (RHP), Melky Cabrera (CF), Jeff Marquez (RHP), Mitch Hillgross

This is insulting, actually.  While Hughes is very good and I like Marquez to be a solid innings eater in the NATIONAL league, the rest is just ####.  Cabrera is a average regular, not a star and I don't blame the Twins for shooing away fhe Yankees with this offer.  If you want to give me something to think about, here is what I would ask for:

Phil Hughes (RHP), Melky Cabrera (CF), Ian Kennedy (RHP), Alan Horne (RHP)

And before Yankee Fans jump on me, consider this.  Kennedy has been highly overrated since he was drafted and has been made to be a lot better than he is by the Yankee spin machine.  He is, at best, a average pitcher with excellent command and is at best a Number Three pitcher, nothing more.  He's not the second coming of Mike Mussia, who had better stuff than Kennedy at the beginning of his career.  Horne has good stuff, but is injury prone and likely a bullpen guy in the end.  Cabrera is an average regular, not a star. 

New York (NL) - Carlos Gomez (CF), Delouis Guerra (RHP), Phil Humber (RHP), Kevin Mulvey (RHP)

A good offer, it's better than what the Yankees are offering and it sends Santana to the NL, where he wouldn't haunt the Twins.  However, I would ask for Fernando Martinez, who has a chance to be a star, instead of Gomez.  That would trump the Red Sox offer and if I had that deal on the table, I'd take it and run with it.  Guerra has a chance to be a solid Number Two pitcher, Humber an inninsg eater, and Mulvey a solid 3.  That's not a bad return.

Oh, and by the way, Omar Minaya is a fool for not agreeing to trade Gomez back in November for Matt Garza, who had a chance to be the best pitcher on the Mets' roster.  The Twins should thank him, as they got Delmon Young in the deal, who is a lot better.

Unfortunately, it looks like we'll be inundated with more of the Santana claptrap, with more rantings for Hank Steinbrenner, more of us seeing Theo Epstein's Fraiser Crane impersonation with him saying "I'm listening", and more pleas from Omar Minaya for the Twins to accept his good, but not great offer. 

So sorry folks, we'll be listening to three more months of the same #### till Spring Training ends.

Well, I'm not the first to comment on the Matt Garza, Delmon Young trade, but I hope that I'll give you all something to check out here.  Here's how each piece of the deal ranks:

Delmon Young (RF) - Young is one of the most high touted baseball talents of the past ten years.  He's drawn a lot of comparisons to Vlad Guerrero, though he hasn't hit for the power just yet.  Still, he's young and has got Hall of Fame potential if he lives up to it and all in all is the best piece exchanged here.  All in all, it's surprising to see Young dealt.  Maybe it's the makeup issues that Tampa finally tired of.  Maybe they know something we don't know.  But all in all, Minnesota makes out well for themselves.

Matt Garza (RHP) - I'm a big Garza fan and this is possibly the biggest impact piece of the deal.  Garza has the potential to be a very good Number 2 or 3 starter and slots in perfectly for Tampa behind Scott Kazmir and James Shields, giving Tampa it's first stable rotation since...ever!  

Jason Bartlett (SS) - A solid defensive shortstop with a good enough bat, Barlett is a big upgrade over Brendan Harris, who's better as a utilityman or as a second baseman.  Barlett will give Tampa a solid infield in the meantime, as they have a solid shortstop prospect in Reid Brignac that is coming up quickly. 

Eduardo Morlan (RHP) - Regarded as a future closer, Morlan is one of the better relief prospects in baseball.  He's got a mid 90's fastball that touches 98 and compliments it with a #### slider.  WIth some refinement, Tampa could find a potential match for Boston's Jonathan Papelbon, and no, that's no #### either.

Brendan Harris (SS) - Harris is a cheaper, lower quality version of Bartlett.  He's a decent defender with a little pop that is probably a better option to be placed over at second or third base, either place he'd offer a lot better option than the gastly Nick Punto.

Jason Pridie (CF) - A bit of a wildcard here, Pridie was originally taken two years ago by Minnesota in the Rule 5 Draft, but he didn't stick.  Pridie's got leadoff potential with some pop and could probably evolve into a poor man's version of Torii Hunter in time, or become a very good fourth outfielder, provided he stays health.

All in all, a good trade for both sides.  Tampa sacrifices a bit of offense in order to greatly improve at two other positions overall.  Of course, part of that is also depending a lot on Rocco Baldelli returning to form, at least until one of Tampa's other top outfield prospects is ready for the show.  In the meantime, the Twins gain a potential boost in the middle of the order, though they do lose a bit of heat in the middle of the rotaiotn with Garza gone, leaving a lot of command and control types after Santana and Liriano.  But really, it's a small quibbling.  When you have a chance to add a potential once in a generation bat in Young, you take the ball and run away.

Grade For Both Sides - A

Alright, just a quick rundown on the Santana Sweepstakes.

On The Block – Johan Santana

The reason for this?  Why not?

The Why:  Santana is entering his walk year and the Twins have already made it known that they won’t give him Barry Zito’s deal to keep him, mostly because of owner Carl Pohland, who one of the cheapest owners in sports, and they may want to see if they can acquire talent for him to help the club in the long run, as the system is starting to run a little dry thanks to some over-conservative drafting.

The Rumored Asking Price:  Three to four good prospects, that are either ready to start immediately or are close to.

Can A Trade Be Done:  Yes, provided that a window for a contract extension is granted to the acquiring team.  Otherwise, no team is going to give up a top of low cost talent in exchange for a one year rental.

The Good:  Santana is perhaps the best pitcher in baseball and could be the ace of ANY rotation.  He’s dominant, has proven to be healthy, and can pitch in the AL and has done so in many of the best hitters parks in the league.

Potential Hang-ups:

• Money – It’s going to be costly to extend Santana, who could be baseball’s first $20 million pitcher.  That’s a LOT of money and many couldn’t afford him. 
• Prospects – The Twins want high ceiling talent and a lot of it, which is going to make things difficult, as many teams simply don’t have farm systems that deep to send the necessary talent back.  So, that limits the amount of people that are legitimate suitors even further. 

Potential Suitors – In Alphabetical Order

• Boston Red Sox – Ummm, Boston apparently would be interested in Santana (but it makes no sense really, as they have a solid rotation already that is very cost effective), but they would likely offer the Twins a package of Jon Lester, Coco Crisp and probably infield prospect Jed Lowrie, plus a player to be mutually decided on.  The problem is that they would only give up Lester and would balk if asked for Ellsbury or Buchholz. 
• Los Angeles Dodgers – The Dodgers certainly have the ammunition to try and make a deal, with them offering a package that would include Andy LaRoche, their top third base prospect, Andre Ethier, who could start in left field, Matt Kemp, who would start in right, and likely Chad Billingsley, the top lefty prospect in the minors.  That is a hell of a package and would give the Twins immediate bonuses to three of their lineup spots while giving them a stud pitching prospect as well.  The problem is that Dodgers owner Frank McCourt might not like the price tag it would take to extend Santana. 
• New York Mets – Omar Minaya seems determined to make a huge splash, and has said he’s saving his trade chips for a front of the rotation pitcher.  There’s just one problem:  most of the Mets’ prospects suck.  Philip Humber and Mike Pelfrey have had their stocks take hits and they lack many other positional players to send back to Minnesota.  The best thing they COULD do would be to see if the Twins still want to do that Matt Garza-Carlos Gomez swap.  I’d be all over that in a second.
• New York Yankees – The Yankees are sure to be in on Santana, and apprently, after the Game 4 loss to the Indians, they immediately called the Twins asking what it would take to build a package around Chein Ming Wang to get Santana.  This was purely rumor, but any deal involving Santana would likely involve New York.  Wang wouldn’t be attractive to the Twins as he’s going to be getting expensive short and he really isn’t what they’re looking for.  They’d likely ask for a package centered around Melky Cabrera and one of the Phil Hughes/Joba Chamberlain duet, with Robinson Cano thrown in for good measure.  The Yankees would likely balk and try to see if Ian Kennedy would get the job done, after which they’re promptly be laughed at and hung up on.  That’s really how it would go down, as New York is so protective even of their worst prospects that it’s hard to get a deal done.  However, with Hank Steinbrenner spilling the beans about the negotiations to get him, this deal may have legs after all.
• Texas Rangers – Texas certainly has the ammunition to make a deal, with a package likely having to center around Eric Hurley, their top pitching prospect, Ian Kinsler, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia, which would allow them to use Mauer at DH more often.  It would be a good trade package, but wouldn’t be enough to compare with what other teams may offer. 

If I Had To Pick A Deal Right Now...Traded To The New York Yankees For RHP Phil Hughes, RHP Ian Kennedy, CF Melky Cabrera and OF Austin Jackson

Will A Deal Ultimately Happen – Yes.  Frankly, the Twins could see themselves as being able to bounce back in contention with the return of Francisco Liriano, but let’s be reasonable.  The Twins also have a lot of holes and their owners’ reluctance to spend money means they can’t buy themselves the necessary fixes to help remedy the problem.  As a result, they’ve got to move him now to be able to at least reload with their current nucleus.

Wow, I go off for training and the Baseball World goes bananas.  Well, I'll update the Kris Benson situation later, but for right now, let's check out the next team drawn out of the hat...

Hmmm, the hat chose to stay in the AL.

Minnesota Twins

I thought I was right last year when I predicted that the Twins would fall off last season and finish third in the division last year.

Then the Twins went out and won the AL Central.

So you wouldn’t think that I would go with them to win this year.

Nope.  Ain’t happening.

Here's why...

The Twins are now wihtout two-fifths of that rotation from last year, with Francisco Liriano out for the season and Brad Radke retiring.  Plus, with the other powers vastly closing the gap between the Twins, plus the amount of youth and inexperience that the Twins will be putting in, things could get ugly really fast.

 Starting Rotation

1. Johan Santana (LHP) – He’s the one sure bet among the Twins pitchers, with most of the rotation being made up of question marks or youngsters.  Santana should continue to dominate the American League and will probably be among the league leaders in ERA, Wins, and Strikeouts.  But none of the will matters, as the Twins are in some trouble as far as the rest of the rotation is concerned.
2. Matt Garza (RHP) – I would prefer that Garza spend another year in Triple A before heading into the rotation, but with the losses of Radke and Liriano, Garza will be forced to be the Number Three starter for the Twins.  Garza was forced to step up for the Twins midway through the season, and was hit hard, as expected for a starter with only one year of pro experience, which was said to have exhausted his arm.  He is also still learning how to mix in all of  his pitches, also chalked up to inexperience.  Theoretically, Garza has enough skills to become an All-Star.  The only thing left for him is to learn by the seat of his pants.
3. Carlos Silva (RHP) – Liriano’s unfortunate need for TJ resulted in Silva having to return for another year.  Silva doesn’t look like he’s going to be much more than a pitcher that will rack up some innings, maybe break .500, and will look very ugly doing it.
4. #### Bonser (RHP) – Bonser has been underrated for years and is in reality a very good pitcher that has a lot of upside.  Inexperience will hurt early on, but he’ll likely be a useful pitcher that can eat innings in the back of the rotation that could provide a dominant performance every now and than.  My long term forecast is that he is on average a 13.12, 4.20 pitcher per year, very similar to Joe Blanton of the A’s.
5. Glen Perkins (LHP) – Perkins is a power lefthander, throwing a fastball that sits at 90-94 mph and striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings.  He complements the heater with a hard curveball.  The problem is that Perkins is VERY flyball friendly, which will give the outfield defense a workout.  With the Twins needing starters (and does anyone really expect Sidney Ponson to make the team), Perkins will likely be in the final rotation spot.

Bullpen

• Joe Nathan (Closer) – One of the best closers in the business, Nathan has dominated baseball without much fanfare.  Nathan has been pretty healthy the past few years and I doubt that will change anytime soon.  Minnesota needs to get something done with him in order to keep him around for the remainder of his career.
• Juan Rincon (Setup Man) – One of the best setup men in the business can spot close if Nathan needs a day off.
• Jesse Crain (RHP) – Teams continue to contact Minnesota about the availability of this 7th inning performer, as he is could enough to close on most teams.
• Pat Neshek (RHP) – This sidearm pitcher gives a different look to complement quality setup men Rincon and Crain.
• Matt Guerrier (RHP) – Guerrier had a solid season by the numbers, but looking closely, he was lights out in May and August, lit up in April and June, and average in September.  Weird.
• Dennys Reyes (LHP) – Solid lefty finishes off a very strong bullpen.

Projected Lineup

1. Luis Castillo (2B) – Castillo was a solid addition to this team, bringing Gold Glove defense at second while serving well as a lead off man.  His only flaw is a lack of power, but with his solid hitting skills and his base stealing ability, he should continue to provide on base skills at the top of the order.
2. Nick Punto (3B) – After spending almost his entire career as a middle infielder, Punto will most likely be the Twins’ starting third base option.  Punto doesn’t have the power usually associated with an infield corner, but he’s a solid hitter and can get on base. 
3. Joe Mauer (C) – The best young catcher in the game today.  Mauer comes into the season as the defending AL Batting Crown holder and continues to establish himself as one of the games elite catchers.  He should continue to hit well above the .300 mark and could continue to improve his power.  Mauer emerged as a run producer last season and should help set up the mashers behind him.  The Twins were smart enough to lock him up for the next four years.
4. Michael Cuddyer (RF) – Cuddyer finally developed into the run producer Minnesota hoped he would and is entering his prime as a hitter.  He seems to have found his niche in right field and should help anchor a solid Twins offense for the next few years, until he begins to get expensive around arbitration time.
5. Justin Morneau (1B) – The AL MVP (should have been Mauer), Morneau also developed the power that Minnesota had hoped he would exhibit, batting .345 with 28 homers and 113 RBI’s after May 9th.  He’s likely to continue growing as a hitter, as he’s only 25, and will give the Twins another solid slugger in the heart of the order.  Like Cuddyer, there is also a question of whether or not Morneau will be moved as he becomes more and more expensive during arbitration.
6. Torii Hunter (CF) – Health has been a bit of an issue for him in recent seasons, but Hunter should be solid for at least one more year.  He might be able to hit for a high average (not likely) with some power (probably) and will provide some solid defense.  But he’ll probably start to decline after this year, thanks to the toll the injuries that have tacked up over the years.  He’ll probably miss time this year too.
7. Rondell White (LF) – White became somewhat competent as the year went on.  He’ll likely hit for some power and play some decent defense, but I wouldn’t look for him to be a long-term option in Minnesota. 
8. Jason Bartlett (SS) – Bartlett emerged as a solid shortstop as the season went on.  Bartlett can hit for high averages and with some power and could be a base stealing threat as he gets older.
9. Jason Kubel (DH) – Kubel has got some power, but realistically, he’s not what you’re looking for in a DH.  He’s penciled in right now because I’m not sold anyone else (and he’s listed as such on the Twin’s website.)

Bench

• Mark Redmond (C) – Redmond is a high-quality backup and a strong clubhouse leader.  The only thing he lacks is a strong bat.
• Jeff Ciriillo (1B/3B) – Cirillo's primary position in his career has been third base, but he also has the ability to back up first and second. He also brings a solid bat, as he batted .319 with three home runs and 23 RBIs in 112 games and 263 at-bats last season for Milwaukee.
• Lew Ford (OF) – Useful fourth outfielder can play all the outfield positions.  Can’t hit a lick, though.
• Jason Tyner (OF) – Powerless bat off the bench can hit for average.  And that’s it.
• Glen Williams (IF) – Utility guy has some power.  If I had to pick a non-roster invitee to make the team, it’s him, unless the Twins sign a power option, then he’s it.

The Disabled List

• Francisco Liriano (LHP) - Liriano is shut down for much of the year thanks to Tommy John and won't be due back until September at the latest.  I don't expect the Twins to activate him unless he recovers from TJ really really fast, but even then, he might not have the velocity or the control to help Minnesota.

Down On The Farm…

• The Twins system is big on pitching, not so big on offense.  They’ve tried to fix this deficiency by drafting bats in early rounds in recent years, but none of those picks will make an impact this year, with the lone bat being groomed into Luis Castillo’s successor.
• Kevin Slowey (RHP) – Slowly doesn’t have solid stuff, but his command rumored to be the best in the minor leagues, which allows him to outmaneuver hitters rather than blowing them away.  He could see some time during the season, if Silva or one of the other pitchers flames out or ends up on the DL. 
• Alexi Casilla (SS/2B) – A switch hitter that is actually quite similar to Luis Castillo.  He’s being groomed to be his successor and will likely spend the year in Triple A.

In Conclusion

The Twins have lost far too much in their rotation and are depending largely on the best pitcher in the league, a retread, two rookies that should be back in Triple A for the year, and a fourth man in the rotation to carry them to the playoffs.  I don't think it's enough for them to get by again.

Final Standings:  Fourth In American League Central

Team Preview Update:  The Baltimore Orioles

Kris Benson's season ending rotator cuff surgery kills any chance of the Orioles putting up respectability in the division.  Now, the rotation is much shallower behind Bedard and will depend much on the hopes and dreams that the other pitchers can somehow put something together.  While the Orioles would be better off giving the spot in the rotation to one of the youngsters, Hayden Penn being the best option, they will likely overpay for a starter that really has no business starting in the American League.  Expect a long season for the guys in Camden Yards.