Why the Angels need to trade Ervin Santana, is Miguel Cabrera the second coming of Mo Vaughn, why Brett Tomko shouldn't have been sent to the rotation, and 2007 Free Agency Bargain Bin Pitchers.

Angels Need To Trade Santana Soon

The Angels would probably be wise to trade Ervin Santana now, as cracks are appearing in his trade value.

Santana is a talented young pitcher that has been shopped often.  It's beginning to show why, however?

Outside of Angels Stadium, Santana morphs into Jeff Weaver and gets killed.  Take a look at his splits for this season.

• Home - 3-1, 2.33 ERA
• Away - 0-4, 7.86 ERA

That's horrible.  Jeff Weaver horrible.  Well, maybe not that bad.

But the fact of the matter is that Santana may not be the young ace in the making that we think he is. 

At least, not in the American League.

In the National League, I think Santana could really blossom.  With lineups that are less potent, more pitcher friendly stadiums (Busch, Petco, Shea, Dolphin, Turner, and Dodger Stadiums, just to name a few), we could see Santana maintain more of his dominance and be a perennial All-Star.  True, he would get killed in other parks (Coors and Minutemaid  would be where Santana would probably be in trouble), but overall, a move to the National League would be beneficial.

Where would he fit best?

The Angels want a bat in return for Santana and are probably hoping to cash in on a trade, similar to what Oakland did when they traded Mark Mulder to the Cardinals.  I don't think they'll get that much, nor do I think they'll get what they would have last season.   However, if the Rockies would be willing to eat enough of Todd Helton's contract, or if  the DBacks are willing to part with one of their talented young hitters, or even if Omar Minaya or John Schurholz is willing to part with a regular (Lasting Milledge would probably be enough to get a deal done), I think that the Angels would do well in terms of return on their investment.

The Second Coming Of Mo Vaughn?

You all remember Mo Vaughn, right guys?  The Red Sox slugger that practically ate his way out of the league by 30 or so?

Apparently, Miguel Cabrera is following the same route.

Cabrera, according to Baseball Reference.com, was 185 when he entered the league.  He has since added on a whopping 55 pounds since then.  Several scouts have said that at this point, Cabrera might need to consider another position change, probably first base, or be traded to the American League where he can DH. 

First base wouldn't be a bad option for him, where he would rival Albert Pujols and Lance Berkman as the most dangerous first baseman in the league.  This would likely interest Omar Minaya, who could replace Carlos Delgado in a few years with Cabrera, giving him a potent offense force in the lineup.

Tomko Heading Back To The Pen

Remember last year, when Brett Tomko talked about how glad he was to be moved into the pen and how he spoke about how he would like to be a closer.

Well, he wasn't glad about being asked to move again. 

Tomko walked past reporters without a word after telling a Dodgers public relations official that he didn't have time to talk about it.

And realistically, the Dodgers shouldn't have been putting Tomko out to start to begin with.  He was surprisingly capable as a setup man/middle reliever and the fact that the Dodgers sent Chad Billingsley to the bullpen instead of Tomko is just bad roster management.

Hong-Chih Kuo will move into the rotation if his next start at triple-A Las Vegas goes well. 

2007 Free Agency - Starting Pitchers (Bargain Bin)

For everyone who wants to take a chance on some of these less than stellar members of a rotation, here's who's available.

• Rodrigo Lopez (Rockies) – Lopez was traded in his final year of arbitration to the Rockies, where so far he’s been solid for the Rockies…when healthy.  However, there is still enough doubt about Lopez that he belongs down here.
• Byung-Hyun Kim (Marlins) – Kim received interest in the fact that he’s a fairly decent, fairly durable pitcher that can function as a fifth starter.  He’ll get work this off-season,
• Jeff Weaver (Mariners) – It’s starting to get a little old with the bad Weaver.  But someone will take a chance on him because of his age, potential, and out of need.
• Jaret Wright (Orioles) – It’s over for Wright as any more than a fifth starter, where his durability as well as his ability won’t hurt the team as much.  However, expect some team to overpay for his services, as they will see Wright as a reclamation project that could pay big dividends.  Hmmm, the Cardinals could come calling.
• Wade Miller (Cubs) – The Cubbies took a flyer on Miller and the result was a solid Spring Training and little else.
• Kip Wells (Cardinals) – Depending on what the hell happens with this season, Wells could see the interest in him build.  How much depends on his performance.  People still feel he’s got great stuff, but honestly, Wells seems to almost invent ways to lose games.  He will find work, but whether it’s on a major league deal is to be decided.
• Odalis Perez (Royals) – [If $9MM club option is declined.]  Perez is a average fifth starter that would probably be better suited for the NL than the AL.  His stuff is rather mediocre and he seems to get by more on luck than skill.  I do expect the Royals to exercise his option, as they really lack any decent options for the rotation, even with Luke Hochevar doing good things in the minors.
• Victor Zambrano (Blue Jays) – Zambrano is an average stuff kind of guy that could pull his weight as the fourth man in the rotation.  It all depends on how well he bounces back from TJ.  So far, the results have been…not pretty.
• Eric Milton (Reds) – Yeah, I doubt that there will be much interest in Milton at the moment, considering how badly he’s pitched. in the past few years.
• Matt Clement (Red Sox) – Don’t know what happened to Clement.  One moment he was awesome, the next moment he was awful and relegated to the bullpen.  Clement will find takers thanks to his past history of success, but as to how much those takers are willing to offer is a different matter all together.
• John Thomson (Blue Jays) – Thomson, at this point of his career, looks done.  I don’t see him getting anything more than a minor league contract, though Ranger Fans should always hold a debt of gratitude toward him.  The compensation pick that was received for Thomson was spent on Texas’ top prospect, Eric Hurley.
• David Wells (Padres) – At Well’s age and with his current health concerns, he’s likely going to hang it up.

   

That's all I got, see you next week unless the Fort Worth Star Telegram goes nuts again.

I was flipping through Newsday, finding material for Friday Morning Closer, when I noticed this little tidbit when they were talking about the Yankee rotation.

How about a trade? Later in the season, the Indians may decide lefty ace C.C. Sabathia will be too expensive to sign to a long-term deal and look to move him. The Yankees would have to be interested. But at what cost?

Right.

First of all, I believe that Sabathia remains under the Indians control till the end of the 2008 season, where it's likely he'll test free agency, as no progress has been made in contract extension talks between Sabathia and the club.

He's also the staff ace and an important part of the Indians' possible playoff hopes.

Why would you give that up, especially when it looks like this year's Indians have a "win or bust" look to them.

And lastly, why would you want to help the Yankees, a team that you have a significant advantage over, with anything?

Look, it's time for the gossip writers to realize that the days of the old "Want A Prospect, Call Cashman" are pretty much over.  Cashman did not invest tens of millions in the draft and international scouting to tear apart his work thanks to a weeks worth of flukey injuries.

Plus, who is out there to that's worth trading for?

• Jon Lieber (Phillies) - Lieber is currently in the Phillies pen and has gotten knocked around, possibly due to the fact that he's simply not accustomed to pen outings and has a hard time getting going in short outings.  Lieber could be had for a semi-decent reliever, but I doubt that the Yankees are willing to go around with Lieber again, especially when you consider that they could get the same production from Darrel Rasner.
• Mark Prior (Cubs) - Cubs fans may say that Prior is untouchable, but I think the Cubs are willing to be rid of Prior and his inconsistencies once and for all.  Prior still has gifts that tantilize people, and he was a former Yankees Number One pick, and he could be hand for something semi-useful, but obtaining Prior leaves the Yankees where they are now, as he's currently injured.
• Brian Lawrence (Rockies) - Lawrence is currently being passed through waivers and can be claimed by anyone, but again, is Lawrence ready to be pitching for anyone?
• Byung Hyung Kim (Rockies) - Again, could be decent for a couple of starts and would be cheap if the Yankees are willing to pick up the tab, but he's also currently injured.
• Jonathan Sanchez (Giants) - Sanchez is capable of starting and is a much better option than Russ Ortiz, who is taking up space in the rotation.  And the Giants have shown that they really don't value their kids much, so it's possible that you could obtain Sanchez for a spare part (possibly Kyle Farnsworth, who never should have lett the NL), as well as taking the awful Armando Beneitez off their hands, who could be flipped to the Marlins, provided he's paid for, for a semi-useful part in return.  But, in spite of how stupid the Giants have been, I don't think they'd be that stupid.
• Bruce Chen (Rangers) - Chen has actually been really decent in the last few weeks and could be obtained for a B- prospect or so, and  Chen has shown the experience to win in the AL East.  However, the Yankees, again, could obtain roughly Chen's performance from someone else.
• Matt Clement (Red Sox) - Would be nice if he was healthy and able to pitch.  The Red Sox would love to offload his salary for something in return, even if it is for a bag of balls, a hot pocket, and a couple of lapdances at Scores the next time they go to New York.

The bottom line is, all of these starters can be had for something that is less than what you would get for Sabathia, who would likely begin to be offered for something line Phil Hughes at the very least.  But, realistically, many of these same guys are similar to the guys the Yankees are tossing out there, and really, giving the kids some experience, like the Yankees are doing with Chase Wright, Ranser, and Jeff Karstens, is not only more cost effective, but in the long run benefits everyone.

Slow baseball day, especially with the Super Bowl coming soon (by the way, I beat the Dolphins 30-21 in the Super Bowl in my Madden Game, in case anyone is interested.)

D-Rays Would Be Foolish To Deal Young

Apparently B.J. Upton isn't getting the interest that you might think.  He's talented, but it's that Upton hasn't been able to find a position.  Furthermore, teams are wary of his attitude.  Apparently, many scouts are questioning how much desire Upton has for the game.  As a result, the Rays have discussed a package of outfielder Delmon Young, he of the enormous talent and the questionable attitude, in order to make teams more willing to take Upton.  

Such a trade would be vastly one sided unless the Rays are able to acquire two starting pitchers.  And even then, I would be parting with a potential superstar, as Young has the same tool set as a young Barry Bonds.  As for Upton, I'd move him to the outfield (swap him out on days where Young would DH), where he'd be able to showcase his skills enough to make a trade.  Other than that, I really don't know where else he could be moved, except maybe first, where a wooden Indian can play.

Heir To Rivera?  Not A Good Idea.

With the greatest closer in the modern era nearing retirement in New York, the Yankees are looking around for options to succeed him, as it's likely Rivera will only play for another two years, then ride off into the sunset.

They have made sure to hold onto in house options, such as J.B. Cox and Scott Proctor, they are rumored to have heavy interest in Los Angeles' Francisco Rodriguez to be a replacement.

Rodriguez hits Free Agency after the 2008 season.  I'm guessing that Rivera at most plays until then.  Should he hit free agency, Rodriguez could expect to surpass the record deal given to B.J. Ryan by Toronto, possibly earning four years, maybe $48 million or more, depending on how much the market has corrected by then.

However, I don't think this is a wise investment.

Rodriguez, despite his potential, is possibly the one closer currently in baseball that is headed for a disastrous breakdown. 

He's had shoulder and elbow problems bite him when he was a starter, and despite his reasonable durability as a closer, his mechanics, his delivery, and his size all scream potential breakdown.  I'm already surprised the Rodriguez hasn't suffered a breakdown. 

Is his stuff overpowering?  Yes.  Is he great?  Yes.  Do I hate to see him come in from the pen whenever the Rangers and Angels play?  Yes.  But would I invest money in him?  No.  I think that sooner or later, much like Pedro Martinez, who also has explosive mechanics and a small frame that have taken their toll on him, I think that K-Rod is time bomb waiting to go off. 

Who’s Closing For Boston?

Boston enters 2007 much like they did 2005 and 2006.

No closer.  I wouldn't be talking about this topic, but Sleepless got me thinking about it (thanks a lot.  I owe you a Hot Pocket.)

Unlike last season, where B.J. Ryan had hit the market, the Red Sox found the 2006 Free Agency class to be without any solid options.  Their lone plausible option, Eric Gagne, signed with the Texas Rangers.  Their top trade target, Mike Gonzalez, was dealt this season to Atlanta, who seems to be collecting relievers like others do baseball cards.  The only other two potential closers that can teams are listening to offers for, Texas’ Akinori Otsuka and Washington’s Chad Cordero, will cost Boston a solid starting pitching prospect, a price that Boston isn’t willing to pay.

Internally, options are few and far between.  Theoretically, there are several players that they can use to fill the role:

• Jonathan Papelbon – Last year’s closer, Boston planned to use Papelbon as a reliever for at least another year until Schilling left the rotation due to retirement, allowing Papelbon to slide into the rotation.  However, at the All-Star break, Papelbon suffered from weakness in the shoulder joint.   After a second incident in September, in which he suffered a slight shoulder subluxation, Papelbon was shut down for the remainder of the season.  While it’s tempting to think that after some rest, Paps would be as good as new and able to handle the role for another year, Papelbon may be better off becoming a starter now, where his workload would be much more routine, as there is doubt that Papelbon can handle pitching everyday.
• Matt Clement – Clement has said that he’s willing to give closing a try, depending on what the team needs him to do.  Why Clement may benefit from a move to a closers role, as it would limit his workload and allow him to continue a career in the majors.  However, Clement was shaky all of last year and there’s doubt as to whether or not his stuff is still dominating enough to where he can be effective for one inning.
• Mike Timlin – Timlin has been an invaluable workhorse for the Sox for the last four seasons, averaging nearly 75 appearances a year. But Timlin will be 41 before the season starts and over the course of his 16-year major league career, has been far more effective as a set-up man than a closer. 
• Joel Pineiro - Recently signed out of Seattle, Pineiro was decent as a reliever.  With him pitching in shorter stints, Pineiro's velocity improved.  The question is can he handle the pressure cooker that is Boston and the mental demands of the role.
• Craig Hansen - The Sox drafted him to be the closer of the future, but he seems to have regressed over the past few years and has been demoted twice.  Unless he sets the world on fire and rediscovers that filthy break on his slider, he's going to be a 7th inning option at best.

I’m Sailinnnnngggggggggg…….

This should get fans in Pittsburgh to the ballpark. 

The Pirates have disclosed some of their new promotions for the upcoming season.

We’ve got Jason Bay and Adam LaRoche bobbleheads, a collectable Roberto Clemente statute, fireworks, and a concern after the game on July 4 that will feature Big & Rich. Styx, Smash Mouth and PovertyNeck Hillbillies.

Why do I have visions of Shooter standing on the Pirates dugout, leading the fans in a rendition of “Come Sail Away?”

Note:  I don’t know if Shoot likes Styx.  Come to think of it, I should grab a beer with Shoot one of thse days.  He only lives like 90 miles away, give or take. 

Friday Morning Closer

Here’s my three-pitch outing for the day.

Enough Of This ####!

Listen Yankee fans.  I’m sick and tired of hearing about all this #### about A-Rod not being a “true” Yankee, that he’s never going to be accepted unless he comes through in the clutch, that he’ll never be equal to Jeter in ability and talent.

Enough already.

While it’s true that A-Rod seems to be too structured and less the genuine at times, he’s a hell of a lot better than they guy that the Yankee fans keep wanting to reference to, Scott Brosius.

Brosius, who was obtained for Kenny Rogers in 1998 and was seemingly deified in Buster Olney’s book The Last Night Of The Yankee Dynasty, was remarkably mediocre save for his 1996 Season with Oakland (.304, 22 HR, 71 RBIs) and his 1998 season with New York (.300, 19 HRs, 98 RBIs).   Then he turned in a stellar postseason by hitting .383 with four homers and 15 RBIs, capped by a World Series MVP award.  After that, Brosius was remarkably terrible, hitting .254 and averaging about 15 Home Runs and 61 RBI’s. 

Meanwhile, Rodriguez has outperformed Brosius in every sense of the word, hitting .299 while averaging 39 Home Runs and 117 RBI’s.  He’s third among Major League Third Baseman in Home Runs, (34), second in walks (86), 9th in Slugging Percentage (.514), and 9th in Hits (157).  Compare him to the Yankees, and he’s second in Home Runs, Walks, and Slugging Percentage, First in RBI’s, and Third in Hits and On Base Percentage.

But then comes the inevitable argument.

But Brosius was better during the post-season

Oh Really!

Scott Brosius's Post Season Numbers

                                              HR       RBI       BB      SO     BA        OBP      SLG

 12 Postseason Series     8          30           8      46      .245     .278      .418

Alex Rodriguez's Post-Season Numbers

                                            HR         RBI        BB    SO    BA     OBP         SLG 

 8 Postseason Series      6            16      15     28      .305    .393    .534

Santana Closing In On Pitchers Triple Crown

Here’s something that hasn’t been mentioned by many. Johan Santana is rapidly closing in on the Pitchers Triple Crown.  He leads all pitchers with 18 wins, 240 strikeouts, and a 2.79 ERA.  The last time that there was a Pitchers Triple Crown was in 2002 when Randy Johnson did it with 24 wins, 334 strikeouts and a 2.32 ERA.  The last time it happened in the AL was in 1999, when Pedro Matrinez accomplished the feat with 23 wins, 313 strikeouts and a 2.07 ERA.

Red Sox Need A Closer

With Jonathan Papelbon now moving into the rotation, the bullpen is now completely devoid of any impact players that can hold a lead in the 7th, 8th, or 9th inning.  There are still questions as to whether or not this is a wise idea.  Papelbon has been dominant as the closer, but his splitter wears on his arm and he’s had some health problems that create some doubts as to whether or not he can last 200 innings a season.   If Paps is taken out of the bullpen, that leaves the Red Sox with Julian Taverez and Manny Delcarmen, who has managed to survive the first trial by fire that all Boston players go to.  This fills the role of the long reliever and the setup man, but lefty specialist, middle reliever, and closer are all going to need to be filled. While the Red Sox could strike it rich as far as a lefty is concerned, plus bringing Keith Foulke and Mike TImlin back for one more year as a setup men/spot closers, neither is a sure bet to stay healthy or to successfully dominate as a closer. 

So what options are available? As far as existing assets, Boston could use Matt Clement as the closer, seeing as how he’s unmovable and that they have him on the books for another year.  It’s possible that if he limits his innings, he could be able to prolong his effectiveness and not succumb to his tendency to become a batting tee.  But that’s a very dangerous gamble, as at this point, you have no idea what you have with Clement at the moment.  Craig Hansen was drafted to become the eventual closer, and he’s still got that high 90’s fastball with that good breaking ball.  But he’s regressed this season, a fact that I know is a consequence of his rushed development to the big club.

As far as trade options, there was a rumored trade with Texas for Francisco Cordero, but the Rangers didn’t find any options that would have helped them.  I heard this rumor only a couple of times, so it’s possible that this was just a baseless one and not one with any fact.  However, the Sox could trade with Houston for closer Brad Lidge, who that Astros tried to move at the deadline in order to give the job to Dan Wheeler.  But again, there isn’t anything Boston can send back to the Astros in return.  Despite the fact that Lidge has had some control problems, as seen by his high ERA, the Astros aren’t going to give him away.  The Red Sox would have to deal a relatively decent prospect in return, which I’m not so sure they’re willing to do. So that leaves free agency, which isn’t a lock either.

Danys Baez – The former D-Rays closer is 29 and was a hot commodity after converting 41 of 49 save opportunities (83.7%) for the Devil Rays last year with a 2.86 ERA.  He was traded to the Dodgers this year for garbage, but in return was just 9 for 16 after Eric Gagne went down.  He was traded to the Braves and worked ten innings until he needed an appendectomy.  Baez doesn’t blow hitters away and outmaneuvered hitters last season instead of dominating them.  He’s going to want a lot of money, but he’s not worth it.

Octavio Dotel – The former Astros and A’s closer finally returned from Tommy John surgery on August 16th, 14 months later.  The results haven’t been pretty, but this could be attributed to the recovery factor that always follows Tommy John.  He’s mentioned a desire to return to New York, but it’s unlikely, thanks to the emergence of Darrel Rasner.

Joe Borowski – No one expected Borowski to have such success with the Cubs from 2002-03, and his resurgence in 2006 has been equally surprising.  This year, he’s posted a 3.21 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, and 31 saves.  However, he’s older and has some miles on his arm, increasing the risk on signing him. 

Eric Gagne – Gagne was one of the most dangerous closers a few years ago, but a slew of health problems have taken the axe to his career.  Gagne hopes to remain a Dodger, but Scott Boras could convince him to explore the market.   It’s unknown whether or not Gagne still has that 100 mph heater, but if he’s anywhere close to where he was, he could again be a solid closer.  However, Gagne has only pitched 15.3 innings over the last two seasons.  He's a very risky signing, even if his contract is mostly performance based.

Kerry Wood – Wood finally admitted that he might be better off as a reliever last seasoncould surprise as a closer if one of them is willing to give it a shot.  If Wood is able to harness his talents in the bullpen, he could easily rank as one of the most dangerous closers in baseball.  But again, that’s a big if, as Wood has had trouble staying healthy long enough to allow his velocity to come back completely.

As you can see, the Red Sox are in a bind as far as their bullpen goes.  They could offer several of these guys a shot at the job in spring training, and perhaps keep some of them along to deepen the bullpen.  None of these guys will replace what they had in Papelbon, but until Hansen is able to take over the job, Boston has no choice but to put them chips in one of these teetering baskets and hope that it doesn’t fall over.

Zito Not Headed To The Big Apple

This has got to be the last thing Scott Boras wanted to hear.  Multiple newspapers are reporting that both New York teams have minimal interest in Barry Zito.  When the Mets made a run for Roy Oswalt at the trade deadline, they stayed away from Zito, not just for the asking price, but because Zito wasn’t viewed as a number one starter.  Reportedly, the New York Yankees feel the same way and would prefer to sign some lower price, serviceable talent, that would be able to perform well enough for the Yankees to work in top prospects Philip Hughes and Tyler Clippard.  This is the complete opposite of what we were hearing in April and from what was flying around at the deadline.  Boston is also said to be out of it, as they lack the payroll flexibility, plus they have several more needs that need tending to.  Popular speculation is that the Padres and Rangers are now the biggest horses in the race.

San Diego – The Padres are willing to spend the money in this off-season to upgrade the team, but with the pitching staff as solid as it is, the Padres would be better off upgrading some of their other positions, such as catcher and third base.  They could make a run at Zito, who would greatly benefit from a weaker national league lineup, and the spacious outfield of Petco Park.

Texas – If Zito were to sign with the Rangers, Texas would have a lefthanded starter that typically does well in their park, plus can eat up innings and stay relatively healthy.  He’s not an ace, but Zito would at least give the Rangers a solid one two punch with Millwood.  Again, the Rangers would also have to bring back either Vicente Padilla or Adam Eaton (possibly both) for them to take full advantage of their pitching staff.

Seattle – The Mariners would have to unload Adrian Beltre in order for them to be able to pull this off.  They’ll likely sign Jason Schmidt, but they seem more inclined to go after Daisuke Matsuzaka, who is far more dangerous as a starter.  Still, I could see the Mariners entering the bidding if they lose out on the posting price (depending on Boston, Texas, New York, and Los Angeles.)  I still see them as a long shot, though.

Philadelphia Phillies – The Phillies could be a player, since they will have some money to play around with and vacancies in the rotation.  They’ll make things interesting, but will likely be outbid.

Chicago Cubs – The Cubs could try to make an offer, seeing as how the lineup is relatively weak behind Carlos Zambrano.  However, it’s unknown what the wind currents at Wrigley will do to a pitcher like Zito, and could sap his effectiveness.  Plus, the Cubs need position players a hell of a lot more than they do pitchers, namely a shortstop WHO CAN HIT, a second baseman, and possibly a catcher if Aramis Ramirez opts out.  It’s very possible that the Cubs would prefer to chase down one of the two big power bats that will be available: Carlos Lee or Alfonso Soriano.

Do I think it’s all a smokescreen?  Of course.  But if the rumors are true, it’s going to get interesting to see how the bidding goes without the two heaviest of hitters joining into the fray.

On The Block:  Matt Clement

I hereby declare this pitchers week on On The Block with a profile of another one of the endangered Boston pitchers.

Why He’s On The Block: Boston’s initial thoughts about how the team was going to look is starting to backfire, namely third base.  Clement is probably the most movable of the available Boston pitchers.  Clement has been rather inconsistent in Boston, having a spectacular first half while flaming out over the All Star break, much as Boston did down the stretch last year.  Clement is a middle of the rotation starter at best, and not meant to serve as the ace of a team.  Because of Boston’s numerous injuries last season, Clement was looked upon in that capacity, which wasn’t really fair to him. 

Asking Price:  Medium.  Boston will ask for either a third or a first baseman.  A first baseman will probably be ideal, as it would allow Kevin Youkilis to slide back to his natural position at third.

Negotiable:  Probably not, thanks to the current starting pitching shortage around the league.

What He Offers:  Clement is still rather young, but his talent is average.  He offers the following:

·          Plus:  Decent middle of the rotation starter.

·          Plus:  Throws strikeouts

·          Plus:  Has clocked in or near 200 innings per season for the past 4 years.

·          Minus:  Has a tendency to give up the long ball.

·          Minus:  Tendency for wildness.

·          Minus:  Gives up a lot of hits.

·          Minus:  Tends to slow down with men on base.

He Stay Or Will He Go:  55%-45% on him staying, but going, but to where?  Lots of teams can use a pitcher to strengthen their rotation.  However, power hitting corner players are rare and it's an almost certainty that no one is going to be eager to give on up.  So let’s see where he could end up.

·          Pittsburg Pirates – 30%.   The Pirates are in need of another pitcher now that Kip Wells is down for the count.  Apparently, they are dangling 1B/OF Craig Wilson on the block for another starter.  Looking at Wilson, he has some power and a average on base percentage.  However, WIlson has rather poor plate discipline, as during his seasons where he averages as many innings as a starter, he posts high strikeout totals.  Not good for a team that loves the On Base Percentage state as much as Boston does.  There also isn't a true ace on the Pirates yet, but if Zach Duke continues to improve, he could take over this spot by the end of the year.  I could see this deal happening, but Boston would need to pick up some of the tab left on Clement.  I don't know if they are willing to do that.   

·          Philadelphia Phillies – 22%.   Philly needs a bad, and they have talked about obtaining Clement.  However, Philly doesn’t have much to offer back to Boston.  They want to move Bobby Abreu, but with Wily Mo Pena, there isn’t much leverage they could give.  Philly does have a good third base prospect in Mike Costanzo, but he’s years from being ready. 

        Seattle Mariners - 18%.  Seattle needs some extra starting pitching as Felix Hernandez is still young and Jarrod Washburn is average at best.  Clement wouldn't give them an ace (that role will be taken by Hernandez this year), but would firm up the rotation.  Clement would do well in the pitcher friendly confines of Safeco Field and Boston could trade for closer Eddie Guardado to soldify the bullpen.  It doesn't solve the problem at Third, but it does allow Boston to use Papelbon in the rotation and keeps Mike Timlin in a setup role.

·          Los Angeles Angels of In and Out Burger – 15%.   Yes, the name is done with sarcasm.  From here on in, whenever the Angels are mentioned on On The Block, I will proceed to mock them with some California feature.  If you all have any ideas, feel free to contribute.  They will be used.  The Angels would use him to push Ervin Santana back into the bullpen, strengthening it, while having a good middle of the rotation pitcher.  The Angels could probably gain him for Brandon Wood alone, but Boston would probably complicate a deal if they insist on Santana or Stephen Drew or insisting the Angels taking a large part of Clement's remaining contract in return.

·          St Louis Cardinals – 10%.  St. Louis would love to have Clement in order to solidify their rotation, but they already have five starters in Carpenter/Mulder/Suppan/Marquis/Ponson.  Plus, while Clement could possibly be had for prospect Travis Hanson, Hanson is being groomed as the successor for Scott Rolen.  Do the Cardinals really want to mortgage the future for the present.  I say no.

·          New York Mets – 5%.  The Mets could use the starter, but they have nothing to offer back to Boston.  Boston would likely ask for David Wright, which won’t happen.

End Result – Stays in Boston.  Clement will push Jonathan Papelbon to be the defacto closer. 

Wow, two posts in one day.  Aren't you all lucky!

On The Block:  Alfonso Soriano Special Edition

News broke earleir today that the Nationals are considering a trade with the Red Sox.  Here's what each side would get:

Alfonso Soriano to Boston

Bronson Arroyo or Matt Clement to Washington

Would I pull the trigger on this deal if I were Boston?  That depends:

What Boston Loses:

Because of David Wells' trade demand, losing Clement as well would result in a thinner bullpen.  At the moment, Johnathan Papelbon is viewed as both an emergency starter and closer, and Arroyo is viewed as a spot starter/long reliever.  If both were in the rotation, the Red Sox would have to pray that Keith Foulke is okay, because if he isn't, the bullpen is further weakened, focing Boston to recall Craig Hansen from AAA Pawtucket, perhaps before he is ready. 

What Boston Gains:

If they did acquire Soriano, they would recieve a terrible defensive second baseman, which would degrade the overall defense of the Red Sox.  However, there would be a large upside.  Soriano would be able to put up reasonably good numbers at Fenway, similar to those that he had with the Rangers.  Soriano could take advantage of the Green Monster and would belt out quite a few homers and RBI's.  The Red Sox would also be a faster team on the bases and would also be getting younger at the same time.  Plus, the Red Sox would be rid of the Clement contract off of their books and could possibly make a run for one of the big name starters entering free agency next year.  Also, Soriano would only be around for one year, so if the Red Sox decide he's not for them, they could allow him to walk in free agency.  The Red Sox would also have one final benefit:  they would regain some of the offense that they lost when they dealt Edgar Renteria.

What Washington Gains:

Washington would gain a proven starter from the National League in Clement, who would do well in pitcher friendly RFK Stadium, for a discounted price than was paid to other starters this past offseason.

What Washington Loses:

A headache in trying to have to talk Soriano into playing the outfield.  Washington has far more to gain with Clement than they ever would with Soriano.

End Result

If Wells and possibly Loretta or Graffinino can be flipped for relievers, I would pull the trigger on this trade simply for the offensive benefit that Soriano could have in Fenway.