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On The Block – Miguel Cabrera

Just to address the other sexy name on the block.

The Why:  A farm system with some depth, but with a lot of graduations, an ownership unwilling to invest more than what they get in the luxury tax, and a assortment of problems at the ownership level results in the Marlins being unable to afford their superstar third baseman and potential MVP candidate.  The Marlins recognize they have holes in their team that they weren’t able to fill in the fire sale two years ago and are going to try and jettison their most attractive piece in order to fill them.

The Rumored Asking Price:  The Marlins are demanding FOUR players with 0-3 years in service time and all have to be studs.  Ouch.  That’s hard enough for any team to handle and the Marlins have already made it clear who they want from each team, no if’s, ands, or buts about it.

Can A Trade Be Done:  Iffy.  The Marlins have acquired a lot of talent as well as a reputation for being difficult to negotiate with.  They are going to demand the very best players for Cabrera and mean to get him, but what they’re asking for is going to scare off a lot of people.

The Good:  Cabrera has drawn many comparisons to Manny Ramirez in terms of hitting ability and power.  He could be a potential Hall Of Famer if he continues to improve and is already better than several superstar players were at his age, including Saint Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez.

Potential Hang-ups:

• Prospects – The amount and quality of prospects that Florida is going to want makes a trade very prohibitive for many teams, even those with the prospect depth to do so.
• Health – People are wondering if Cabrera’s weight issues will continue to be a problem, limiting his long-term value.
• Money – Any team that is looking to acquire Cabrera would want a negotiating window to extend him beyond his two remaining years.  The problem is, the Marlins have no intention of granting one, meaning it’s a buyer beware proposition.

Potential Suitors – In Alphabetical Order

• Chicago White Sox – The White Sox were aggressively going after Cabrera, offering a package of 3B Josh Fields, CF Jerry Owens, LHP Gio Gonzalez and reportedly LHP Jon Danks.  That probably won’t cut it, as the Marlins seem to be going after superstar prospects and nothing less.
• Los Angeles Angels – The Angels already look like they’re gearing up for a Cabrera trade, filling a rotation hole by the recent addition of Jon Garland.  They can now offer Florida a package that includes Ervin Santana, who fits the service time requirements.  However, the Angels would also need to add in 2B Howie Kendrick, top pitching prospect Nick Adenhart, OF Reggie Willits or one of Mike Napoli or Jeff Mathis catching tandem.  Reportedly, Adenhart and Kendrick are the sticking points, as the Angels are willing to give up one, but not both.  Also, the Marlins aren't too high on Santana. 
• Los Angeles Dodgers – The Dodgers also can offer a good package, maybe even better than the Angels.  Top pitching prospect Clayton Kershaw would have to be included in the deal, as well as 3B prospect Andy LaRoche, RHP Jonathan Broxton and one of either 1B James Loney or RF Matt Kemp.  That’s a hell of a price to pay with Kershaw alone, let alone the rest of the young talent on the Roster.  The Dodgers look like they’re all about it, but to be quite honest, I think I would rather pass.
• New York Yankees – Yup, the Yankees apparently are still in it, looking to move Cabrera to first base.  A package would have to be centered around CF Melky Cabrera, RHP Phil Hughes, and 2B Robinson Cano, which the Yankees would balk at, then state publicly that they’re waiting for the market to go down, all the while wondering why the Marlins are simply giving Cabrera to them.
• San Francisco Giants – The Giants looked into getting Cabrera early in the off-season, but they lacked positional players to send back to Florida.  Even then, would it really be worth sacrificing \either Matt Cain or Tim Lincecum?
• Texas Rangers – The Rangers have the talent to make a trade, but the Marlins would insist on RHP Eric Hurley, C Jarrod Saltalamacchia, 2B German Duran and SS Joaquin Arias (allowing them to move Hanley Ramirez to centerfield.)  That is a VERY high price to pay and the Rangers have made it known that they’re rebuilding, not looking to gut the farm.  This really is only out there to shut up those emails about whether or not the Rangers have a shot at Cabrera. 

If I Had To Pick A Deal Right Now…Traded To The Los Angeles Angels For RHP Ervin Santana, RHP Nick Adenhart, OF Reggie Willits, 2B Howie Kendrick.

Will A Deal Ultimately Happen – Yes.  The Angels are up to something and that something is likely Cabrera, as all of their moves this off-season look more and more like their gearing up to trade parts to gain him.  However, the Marlins also need to realize that they can’t keep doing this, trading talent away for more prospects because they’re getting expensive.  Ultimately, this is a symptom of a cancer at the top and Jeffrey Loria needs to address it with one of two solutions:  move the team or sell it to someone willing to put money into it.  Because, quite honestly, this can’t work for much longer.  

Parity Does Exist In Baseball, When Exactly The Yankees Went To Hell and Why They Won't Win Another World Series For A While, Free Agency Rumblings And Grumblings, and Matt Cain's Face On A Tortilla.  Yup.  A Tortilla.

Baseball, Not Football, Is Now The Most Fair Sport

Say what you want about Football and it's parity, but the fact is that Baseball is now the most fair amongst the sports.

Baseball, since it's institution of a revenue sharing system (somewhat) has managed to keep things competitive and different in their post-seasons.  True, while there are the big money teams that buy their way into the playoffs (Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, and to a certain extent, the Braves) there have also been several teams that have managed to make it into the show while keeping their books balanced.  As much as I despise Billy Beane, I've got to give him credit for keeping Oakland competitive for most of the decade.  Minnesota has done more with less, thanks to smart drafts and trades (Pierzynski for Nathan, Liriano, and Bonzer anyone).  Florida, ater deciding that they couldn't afford their expensive team, sold off most of their pieces of their team and nearly posted the same record this season and may challenge the Mets for the NL East Crown next season.

Sure, people may point out the Royals, the Devil Rays, the Pirates and the Rockies as examples of why Baseball is unfair, but the fact is that for a great period of time, these franchises were run with little direction, clue, or drive by their respective owners and management.  But even then, there is reason to hope.  The Royals now appear to be on the right track thanks to new General Manager Drayton Moore, who sold off most of the ill fitting pieces that had no place on his vision of the future, and the Devil Rays are now starting to come into their own now that ownership appears to be willing to spend money and make things work.  The Rockies, after trying for years to buy talent to help them compete, has taken advantage of numerous high draft picks to build one of the deepest farm systems in baseball.  As for Pittsburgh, well....they did finish ahead of the Cubs, who spent a fortune for a last place team. 

Does credit have to go to Bud Selig?  To a certain extent.  Selig's attempts to crack on teams that try to spend their way to a championship has worked to a certain extent.   One of the things that Bud's predecessor, Fay Vincent, was accused of (and to whom I credit most of the blame of the steroid era to), was that Vincent was too much in favor of the big market teams. And while Selig's changes haven't stopped teams from goings nuts as far as payroll (I.e. both New York Teams, The Angels, Both Chicago Teams), the fact is that Bud has done a lot of good in implementing his changes to give everyone a shot. 

If you want the ultimate justification, take a look at the number of teams that win the championship of each league, since Bud took charge in 1992.

NFL - (11).  Washington (1992), Dallas (1993-94), San Francisco (1995), Dallas (1996), Green Bay (1997), Denver (1998-99), St. Louis (2000),  Baltimore (2001), New England (2002), Tampa Bay (2003), New England (2004-05), Pittsburgh (2006)

NBA -(6).   Chicago (1992-93), Houston (1994-95), Chicago (1996-98), San Antonio (1999), LA Lakers (2000-02), San Antonio (2003), Detroit (2004), San Antonio (2005), Miami (2006)

MLB - (9).  Toronto (1992-93), Atlanta (1995), New York Yankees (1996), Florida (1997), New York Yankees (1998-2000), Arizona (2001), Anaheim (2002), Florida (2003), Boston (2004), Chicago White Sox (2005), Mets/Tigers/Athletics/Cardinals (2006).

Football has the most division winners among the sample, but that sample is slightly tainted because of the mini-dynasties of San Francisco and Washington that can be traced farther back beyond this sample. Plus, the Rams made the Super Bowl in 2002 and New England was the loser in the 1997 Super Bowl.   Baseketball, despite it's claim of it being all inclusive thanks to the fact that half the damn league gets into the playoffs, has had only six different teams win the title in this 14 year period.  As for Baseball, the Yankee Dynasty tends to skew the overall balance, plus the lost 1994 World Series.  Baseball also has fewer teams that have managed to extend their runs of dominance over a significant period of time.  Before the Yankees won four in five years from 1996 to 2000, the last multiple win World Series team was the Oakland Athletics, who did it from 1972 to 1974. 

So while baseball may have it's problems, one thing is certain.

There is parity in the sport.  It's not as obvious as football, where 8-8 can get you into the playoffs, but it exists.  You just have to look closely to find it.

Where The Yankees Went To Hell...

Speaking of New York, Bobby V on The V Show with ESPN had a great point on when the Yankees began to tank.

When Matsui and Sheffield went down, the Yankees were forced to shake things up in their clubhouse by having to depend on a new face (Melky Cabrera) and an old favorite (Bernie Williams).  Cabrera borught a breath of fresh air to a largely stale Yankee lineup and Williams, who was given up for dead, stepped up as the DH/Part Time Outfielder and did a good job doing it.  Combined with the shakeup that brought in Bobby Abreu and the Yankees were transformed into a livelier and more productive lineup. 

But the Yankees reverted back to form when Torre decided he had to put Matsui and Sheffield into the lineup.  Gone went Cabrera, who more than earned the starting left field job, and gone wnet Williams, who can still destroy lefty pitching.  And true, the change probably should have been made considering Matsui's and Sheffield's accomplishments, but I can't help but agree that a little bit of life left that lineup when Cabrera and Williams were pulled.

Why The Yankees Won't Win For A While

If the Yankees expect to make a return to the post-season, they need to depend on the farm for help, not free agency.  The Yankees won their championships thanks to having three incredible front line pitchers.  Roger Clemens and David Cone, two bonafide aces, headed the rotation while Andy Pettitte, a number one on most teams, ran the middle of the rotation.  Plus, they had a bunch of players that, while not All-Stars, at least meshed well with each other.  Paul O'Neill isn't Manny Ramirez, but in that team, he was extraordinary.   

Since the Dynasty years, the Yankees haven't had that same dominance that they were known for.  I chalk this up to not only a lack of pitching on the market, but also a lack of players on the inside.

Let's start with pitching.  There aren't a lot of aces for sale on the market.  Most are either aging and close to retiring (John Smoltz, Curt Schilling, Roger Clemens), locked up for the near future (Roy Oswalt, Dan Haren, Bartolo Colon, Carlos Zambrano, Johan Santana, Jake Peavy, Dontrelle Willis, Roy Halliday), or are incredibly young and will be controlled by their respective teams for the distant future (Justin Verlander, Francisco Liriano, Felix Hernandez). 

Now a days, if you want to have a legitimate ace to head up your rotation, you need to home grow them.  This has been the one thing that Yankees have been unable to do for sometime, but this may be changing with Philip Hughes going to Triple A next season.

The other thing that the Yankees need to do is bring in more position players from the farm system.  The Yankees have a good young core to build around with Cano, Cabrera, Wang and Proctor, but they need more.  The problem with free agents is that you tend to get a lot of mercenary players, which is what the Yankees have done in the past few years by bringing in players such as Sheffield, Giambi, Rodriguez, Johnson, and others.  These guys a lot of the time have no link to the team and at times can be lifeless and dispassionate.

Are all free agents like that?  No.  You have guys that genuine love playing the game and whose personalities reflect that, such as Johnny Damon.  However, the lack of chemistry that has been evident in the Yankees is harmful, as at the end of the day, you can't rely on those players to come through for you when things are bleak.  What you have now is New York is a collection of stars unwilling to stand up to one another, resulting in a buildup of tensions that boils over, such as the Sports Illustrated Alex Rodriguez article, along with the numerous rumors (which the Yankees have been quick to try and deny) of fist fights between Rodriguez and Jeter and Johnson and Posada, among others.

The Yankees need to get back to the strategy of bringing up players that not only have the fire that makes young players so much fun to watch, but also are willing to listen to the leaders of the clubhouse when the right jolt is needed.

All of this can only be solved in the draft, which the Yankees have a huge advantage over.  So many picks fall because of signability reasons (Scott Boras).  The Yankees can draft these young players and deal with their agents (Scott Boras) to try and get them to forgo college to join the minors.  The Yankees have more than enough money to pay above slot and, to be honest, how many players would jump at the chance of playing for the Yankees and forgoing college instead of putting up a stellar college career and wind up in Kansas City or Tampa.

I'll be the first to say it.  The Yankees won't win the World Series as long as this team is together.  But the sooner that the Yankees start building their future around promising youngsters and stop going after overpriced nightmares like Carl Pavano, Jaret Wright, and the Big No Show, the sooner that New Yorkers can start hoping for their pinstriped heroes to take their latest trip down the Canyon of Heroes amid a rain of falling confetti.

Free Agency Rumblings And Grumblings

One last Yankee tidbit:  The Yankees are expected to decline the options of Sheffield and Mussina, making them free agents, and exercising a injury induced buyout clause on Jaret Wright, freeing up almost $30 million in cash.  While the Yankees are expected to bring back Mussina, it's highly unlikely we'll see New York make a splash in the free agent market unless it's for the soon to be posted Daisuka Matsuzaka.

Lou Pinella was reportedly hoping that the Texas Rangers would have offered him their position of manager, as he viewed the Rangers as the closest of the teams seeking a manager to contention.

Expect Hank Blalock to have lots of suitors this off-season.  While Blalock's put up career worst numbers in home runs, RBI's and everything else, he's still got quite a bit of upside in that he's still young and his contract is relatively affordable.  While this would force the Rangers to have to bring back Mark DeRosa as the regular third baseman, trading Blalock with another prospect would be a great way to acquire another starting pitcher with more than one year of service time left.

Expect Seattle to become a major player in the free agency market.  With Ichiro nearing the end of his contract and becoming disheartened with the performance of Seattle in recent years, Seattle has got to do something to help improve the team.  They do have some trade chips in RP Rafael Soriano and 1st Baseman Ritchie Sexton, but the player that may draw the most value may be Adrian Beltre, who proved that he might not be a free agent bust after all.

Boston is expected to shop Manny Ramirez again this off-season, but their chance to get the maximum value for the slugger is gone.  Ramirez, who missed time because of injury and possiby because of attitude, will find far less takers this off-season.  Plus, Ramirez , as a 10-5 player, must approve of any deal.  As a result, Boston, who wanted SP Ervin Santana, 2nd Baseman Howie Kendrick, Utilitydude Chone Figgins, and SS Brandon Wood (a rip off of epic proportions) will have to settle for much less.  I suspect that the Red Sox could pull off a trade to the Angels for just Figgins and maybe SS Erick Aybar, but again, Ramirez could complicate things by insisting that a pair of options be exercised in the process.  In my opinion, Ramirez and Boston are likely stuck wtih each other.

Matt Cain's Face On A Tortilla

Nothing to do with baseball, I just thought you might enjoy this story out of Frisco.

Have a good weekend.  The Rangers Report will be back on Monday, with a by weekly run from now until Spring Training.