A day late, but it's here.  Onto the show.

By the way, a Ranger Report will be filed tonight.  Keep your eye on it.

San Diego Padres – Prospect Report

What was generally regarded to be the worst farm system in baseball has taken a huge step forward thanks to a solid draft as well as the Padres have some of their younger talent step up huge.  The Padres were also able to add some impressive farm system depth in terms of trades, as well as stepping up and signing some of their draft and follows from the final period.  All in all, this system is now in the middle of the pack, and could gain some more additions this year if the free agent compensation awarding falls their way again (A Type B Pick For Ryan #### Kelsko?!)

Padres Top 15

 1 – Matt Latos (RHP)

•   DOB:  2/11/84
• Drafted:  11th Round, 2006, Broward Community College (D&F) 
• 2008 Club:  Eugene Emeralds (Short Season)
• Height/Weight: 6-5/205
• Bats/Throws:  R/R
• The Skinny:  Latos was oen of the top high school arms in the state of Florida entering the 2006 draft, but what caused him to fall was a two fold attack.  One, he was immature and two, his demands were high.  As a result, the Padres drafted him in the 11th round, hoping that things could be worked out.  After some negotations that were touch and go, Latos signed for $1.25 million, which is what he likely would have gotten had he re-entered the draft.  He then proceeded to dominate in the short season leagues, showing that the investment is very much a bargain.
• The Good:  The arm is still there and still very good, but Latos isn’t the same pitcher he was when he was at Broward Community.  He’s better.  A power arm, Latos is imposing at 6-foot-5, and is much improved.  His fastball clocks in around 96, and his slider is a power pitch with good movement.  His changeup, once raw, is much imrpoved and could be a plus pitch in time. 
• The Bad:  Latos is still very raw and needs a lot of polish, so don't expect to see him anytime soon. 
• Projection:  High.  Latos is just good.  In a system lacking in power arms, Latos is clearly the top pitching prospect and, in my book, the top prospect in all of the system.  In time, he could succeed Jake Peavy as the staff ace. 
• What He Can Be:  A top of the rotation starter. 
• 2008 Course Of Action:  Latos will begin the season in Low A, where the Padres hope he can continue his progress that he’s shown this season.  

2 – Matt Antonelli (2B) 

• DOB: 4/8/85
• Drafted: 1st Round, 2006, Wake Forest 
• 2008 Club:  Portland Beavers (Triple A) 
• Height/Weight: 6-1/195 
• Bats/Throws: R/R 
• The Skinny:  A typical Grady Fuson pick, that of a safe college player that will make it to the show, many viewed this pick to be a stretch, and when Antonelli went homerless in his first year, many wrote him off as a solid hitter with no power.  However,  Antonelli has taken a giant leap forward and has shown all the tools that could make him a perrenail All Star. 
• The Good: A great athlete, Antonelli had very good on base skills as well of some speed.  He’s got a quick bat that makes solid contact with the ball and has a great eye for pitches, allowing him to accumulate high walk totals.  What has begun to manifest itself is Antonelli’s power potential, which should make him a threat to be a 20-20 man.  He’s also a solid glove and all in all is the top second base prospect in the minor leagues. 
• The Bad:  He’s still a bit raw and could stand to gain some muscle, but other than that, there’s really no reason to nitpick. 
• Projection: Low.  Antonelli is almost ready for the show, but will be given one more year to develop down in the minors.  He should be up by mid-season. 
• What He Can Be: A Solid Number Two Hitter. 
• 2008 Course Of Action:  Antonelli will likely spend the first two months of the season perfecting his glovework as well as prepping for the show before he gets the call in June.  

3 – Nick Schmidt (LHP)

• DOB:  10/10/85
• Drafted: 1st Round, 2007, Arkansas
• 2008 Club:  Lake Elsinore Storm (High A)
• Height/Weight: 6-5/230
• Bats/Throws: R/R
• The Skinny:  A solid college lefty in a draft class full of them, Schmidt had an excellent junior season, going 11-3 with a 2.69 ERA and 111/51 K/BB ratio in 124 innings of work, was named a second team All-American and was one of the more dominant pitchers in the SEC.  He was seen as one of the safest picks in the entire draft, which was perfect for Fuson, as that is virtually his MO.  However, Schmidt had to be shut down early into his first pro season due to injury.  He should be okay for Spring Training.
• The Good:  Schmidt is a solid workhorse, pitching in the high 80’s, touching 92 at times and complimenting it well with a good changeup and slider, giving him an effective three pitch mix.  He shows solid command and control and has been durable for most of his college career.
• The Bad:  Schmidt really doesn’t stand out much, as the real knock on him is that he doesn’t blow you away.  He’s also very flyball friendly, though Schmidt will benefit greatly from Petco Park.  
• Projection:  Low.  Schmidt should have a decent career in the majors and overall looks to be an innings eater in the mold of Joe Blanton.  In San Diego, he should be a more than capable Number Three Starter, though at the very least he’d be a decent Four. 
• What He Can Be: A middle of the rotation innings eater. 
• 2008 Course Of Action:  Schmidt will likely be promoted to Lake Elsinore, where he should remain the year as he adjusts to a standard minor league season of work.  Depending on the results, seeing Schmidt get promoted to San Antonio isn’t outside of the realm of possibility.

4 – Chase Headley (3B)

• DOB: 5/9/84
• Drafted: 2nd Round, 2005, University of Tennessee
• 2008 Club:  Portland Beavers (Triple A)
• Height/Weight: 6-2/195
• Bats/Throws: S/R
• The Skinny: .The Padres traded Josh Barfield to the Indians for Kevin Kouzmanoff mostly to allow Headley time to develop, as long term, he would be their third baseman while Kouzmanoff would be sold off for parts down the road.  The plan is working, but not in the way the Padres hoped.  While Kouzmanoff has been inconsistent at the major league level, Headley has suddenly started rolling, tearing up the Texas League while hitting for solid power and showing improvement.  Suddenly, Kouzmanoff’s spot is looking very much vulnerable.
• The Good: Already a highly regarded hitter that worked the count and consistently made contact, Headley suddenly blossomed into his power potential, surpassing his previous years total by July!  He’s a solid defender with soft hands and fields the position well.  He’s a switch hitter, but he’s managed to improve his performance against left handers where he won’t require a platoon partner. 
• The Bad: Headley’s arm is a little weaker than expected from the hot corner.  He also lacks speed.  There is also a worry that his newly found power will be lost at Petco Park, where it’s canyon like dimensions could turn his homers into outs.
• Projection: Fair.  Headley is near ready and will be ready to take Kouzmanoff’s job sooner instead of later.
• What He Can Be: A Solid Third Baseman
• 2008 Course Of Action: With little left to prove in San Antonio, Headley will enter Spring Training in competition for Kouzmanoff’s job.  Should he tear it up, Headley will likely be the starting third baseman while Kouzmanoff could theoretically be moved to left field.  More likely, he’s headed to Triple A, where he’ll eventually be called up along with fellow Beaver Matt Antonelli in June.

5 – Andrew Cumberland (SS)

• DOB: 1/13/89
• Drafted:  1st Round (S), 2007, Florida High School
• 2008 Club:  Eugene Emeralds (Short Season)
• Height/Weight: 5-10/170
• Bats/Throws: L/R
• The Skinny:  One of the fastest players in the draft, the Padres took Cumberland on his potential to be a potential impact player, which so far is looking solid after a decent year in the lower minors. 
• The Good: One of the best athletes in the system, Cumberland should hit for average and draw a fair number of walks, making him an ideal leadoff prospect.  He’s got great speed and is able to leg out singles and has great range at shortstop.  He’s a decent baserunner and with time could be dangerous.
• The Bad: Despite his athleticism, Cumberland is raw in the field.  He doesn’t have a strong arm and many feel that eventually he might move to second base or left field.  While he’s got solid power potential, it’s of the doubles variety and he won’t be a huge home run threat.
• Projection: High.  Many feel that Cumberland could eventually be a solid shortstop in the mold of Rafael Furcal, and could be the replacement to Khalil Greene.  The lack of an arm is concerning, but it’s possible he could learn to work around it.  If so, he would add a hell of a weapon at the top of a Padres’ lineup, though playing half of his games in Petco will sap what power he does have.
• What He Can Be:  An upper echelon starting shortstop.
• 2008 Course Of Action:  In spite of his excellent numbers, Cumberland will be heading back to short season ball in Eugene, where he’ll undergo some more tuning up. 

6 – Will Inman (RHP)

• DOB: 2/06/87
• Drafted: 3rd Round, 2005, Virginia High School
• 2008 Club:  San Antonio Missions (Double A)
• Height/Weight: 6-0/200
• Bats/Throws: R/R
• The Skinny: The centerpiece of the Scott Linebrink deal, Inman put up ridiculous numbers in the lower minors and was a strikeout machine until he was promoted to Double A, where he was obliterated by the competition at first, but he settled down and had a respectable turn around.  Still, he’s got solid peripherals, and is highly regarded by Kevin Towers, who has a knack for looking for the right kind of player to fit into his team.  
• The Good: Inman is a curious prospect.  His best pitch is a curveball, a slow pitch with good movement.  He throws a decent fastball that clocks in the high 80’s, but reaches 92 at times.  He’s got a lot of deception in his delivery, which is how he has been able to get so far.  He’s a tough competitor and has solid command over his arsenal.
• The Bad: Inman is strictly a performance prospect.  Scouts have been confused as to how Inman has been as good as he has been in the lower minors because of his lack of dazzling stuff and his lack at projection.  The changeup is fringe-average and he’ll need to either junk the pitch and learn something else or find out a different grip of sorts to master it.
• Projection: Average.  Inman is young and has risen quickly, which make his numbers more impressive when taken into context.  He might be able to be a capable starter in spite of his lack of stuff, especially considering his home park in the majors.
• What He Can Be: A fifth starter, maybe a fourth if he refines his command.
• 2008 Course Of Action:  Inman will likely be returned to Double A, where he’ll repeat and allow himself to continue developing.  It’s not as if the Padres need him this year, as they’ve got a lot of guys already in the major leagues that can provide roughly his performance. 

7 – Mitch Canham (C)

• DOB:  9/25/84
• Drafted: 1st round (S), 2007, Oregon State
• 2008 Club:  Lake Elsinore Storm (High A)
• Height/Weight: 6-2/215
• Bats/Throws: L/R
• The Skinny:  Canham finished a successful career with the Beavers and was taken with one of the many Padres’ supplemental round picks.  He signed quickly and had some promising stats in his first pro season. 
• The Good:  The bat is what got Canham drafted as high as he was.  It’s a solid weapon, and Canham shows the ability to hit for power and hit for a respectable average.  He also takes pitches well and draws walks. He was converted to catching in college and still has some rough spots, but he looks like he’ll stick at the position.
• The Bad:  Again, Canham is still rather raw at catcher, but he’s been trying hard to improve himself at the position.  He’ll need to work on his accuracy at throwing out runners, though he’s got a strong arm to be able to nail them with.  His speed is non-existent as well.
• Projection:  Fair.  Catham still has some growth left on him and it’s possible that he could move quickly.  If the Padres don’t feel that he’s a long term option at catcher, he’s athletic enough to move to a infield or outfield corner. 
• What He Can Be: A Offensive Catcher
• 2008 Course Of Action:  Canham may be tested by being aggressively promoted to High A ball, maybe even higher if the Padres don’t feel that Josh Bard is the long term answer at catcher. 

8 – Cesar Carrillo (RHP)

• DOB: 4/29/84 
• Drafted: 1st Round, 2005, University of Miami
• 2008 Club:  Lake Elsinore Storm (High A)
• Height/Weight: 6-3/177
• Bats/Throws: R/R
• The Skinny:  Drafted out of Miami, Carrillo is one of the few impact players that is in the minors for the Pads.  However, injury cut short his season and the result was Tommy John Surgery for the man they call "King Cesar." 
• The Good:  Carrillo is a power pitcher with plus control and command, and has a power fastball that sits in the low 90s and touches 95-96.  He compliments it with a pair of plus off-speed pitches, a hard curveball and change that fades late. 
• The Bad:  Carrillo's mechanics and his heavy college workload are thought to be the reason for the need for Tommy John.  As a result, his debut will be pushed back at least for another season. 
• Projection:  Fair.  Carrillo needs to get back where he was and hope that his elbow holds up to allow him to build up his durability. 
• What He Can Be:  A Middle Of The Rotation Starter 
• 2008 Course Of Action:  Carrillo's going to be retained in extended Spring Training in order for him to build up his durability and regain his command and control.  After that, he's going to be sent to begin his rehab.  Long term, Carrillo won't be a factor for the rotation until next year. 

9 – Wade LeBlanc (LHP)

• DOB:  8/7/84
• Drafted: 2nd Round, 2006, Alabama
• 2008 Club:  Portland Beavers (Triple A) 
•  Height/Weight: 6-3/202
• Bats/Throws: L/L
• The Skinny:  LeBlanc enjoyed success during his career at Alabama and for the most part has done his part in moving quickly through the San Diego farm system.  Overall, he’s posted solid numbers after splitting the season between High and Double A. 
• The Good:  LeBlanc has good height and is an aggressive pitcher that goes right after hitters.  His fastball touches 90, but most of the time is in the high 90’s and he has a quick delivery.  His best pitch is a big sweeping curveball that drops in on batters.  He also has a very good pick off move and field shis position well. 
• The Bad:  LeBlanc is strictly a performance prospect, a finesse lefty that has come as far as he has because of his lack of excellent stuff.  He also needs another pitch to go into his arsenal. 
• Projection:  Low.  LeBlanc is simply an older, taller version of Inman, a polished performance prospect that gets by on his command.  The difference is that Inman has done his thing while being essentially rushed while LeBlanc is a meh college pitcher that is doing this.  It’s not to say that he can’t be a productive major leaguer, it’s just he doesn’t wow me. 
• What He Can Be:  A fifth starter, maybe a four at Petco. 
• 2008 Course Of Action:  LeBlanc will be headed to Portland for more seasoning, but he could be a late in the year option, depending on how he does against more advanced competition.  

10 – Kellen Kulbacki (LF)

• DOB: 11/21/85  
• Drafted:  2nd Round, 2007 James Madison University 
• 2008 Club:  Lake Elsinore Storm (High A) 
• Height/Weight: 5-11/205 
• Bats/Throws:  L/L 
• The Skinny: Kulbacki has put up some insane numbers during his college career, making a name for himself when he batted .464 and lead the nation with 24 homers as a sophomore.  He came back down to earth a bit in his junior season, hitting .398 with 19 homers, but was also pitched around more and drew 56 walks.  San Diego liked Kulbacki and felt he was a value in the second round, adding another powerful bat into their system.
• The Good:  Kulbacki has the best pure power potential of any prospect in the system.  He has an average arm and is good enough to hold his own in left field.  He’s got average plate discipline and has a quick bat and should hit enough not to require a platoon partner.  He’s got decent speed as well, but won’t be a stolen base threat in the majors.
• The Bad:  There are a lot of things that bring Kulbacki’s legendary numbers back down to earth.  He played at one of the best hitters parks in the nation and didn’t face much top-level competition in college.  Many wonder if his abilities would translate to a wood bat.  His range is limited at best, meaning that overall, Kulbacki's bat will have to carry him.
• Projection:  Average.  Kulbacki is compared by many to Brian Giles and many feel that he’s likely to be a big leaguer, making San Diego’s investment in him sensible.  He’ll likely lose some of his menace at Petco, but with plenty of hitters parks in the NL, as well as a couple in his own division, he should mash.
• What He Can Be:  An Adam Dunn like left fielder.
• 2008 Course Of Action: Kulbacki will likely make his full season debut for High A Lake Elsinore, where the comfy environs of the California League should help him put up insane numbers, but won’t do anything as far as quieting his critics. 11 – Kyle Blanks (1B/DH) OB: 9/11/86

• D
• Drafted:  42nd Round, 2004, New Mexico High School 
• 2008 Club:  San Antonio Missions (Double A) 
• Height/Weight: 6-6/281
• Bats/Throws: R/R
• The Not So Skinny:  After an injury plagued full season debut in 2006, Blanks was rather productive this year at Lake Elsinore.    
• The Good:  A remarkable athlete for his size, Blanks is very athletic, with speed on the basepaths, and is a fine defender.  He’s got solid power potential and is a skilled hitter with a solid approach to the plate. 
• The Bad:  Blanks has had weight issues throughout his career and it likely will cause his career to be shortened.  He’s also had problems staying healthy, which will also play a huge part in his long-term longevity.
• Projection:  Average.  A lot of people in the Padres thought that Blanks reminded them a lot of Pittsburgh Pirates great Dave Parker.  He’ll rise as long as he keeps the bulge down, which is not going to be any small feat.
• What He Can Be:  Mo Vaughn?  Just kidding.  A DH in the American League.
• 2008 Course Of Action:  Blanks will likely be the Missions’ every day first baseman, but long term, I’m wondering if he’s got a future with the Padres.  They may seek to move him soon in order to fill a need, likely another outfielder.

12 – Cedric Hunter (CF)

• DOB: 2/10/88
• Drafted:  2nd Round, 2006, Georgia High School
• 2008 Club:  Lake Elsinore Storm (High A)
• Height/Weight: 6-0/185
• Bats/Throws: L/L
• The Skinny:  Hunter has been promoted aggressively throughout the system, making his full season debut in the Midwestern League before having to be called up to Triple A in an emergency stint for Portland, which he did rather well in. 
• The Good: Hunter has great hitting tools, showing excellent pitch recognition, a quick bat, and the ability to hit all kinds of pitches to all fields.  A stat nerds dream.
• The Bad: Hunter had a surprisingly low ceiling, which is odd considering he was drafted out of high school.  He also isn’t going to hit for a lot of power and all in all, he’s not going to stay in center, making his long term position tricky. 
• Projection:  High.  Hunter will likely end up in right field, but he doesn’t fit the power mold for that position.  He could be play everyday, provided you find your power elsewhere in the lineup.  He’s also not a leadoff man, meaning that he’s okay as a number two hitter when it’s all said and done. 
• What He Can Be: An Number Two hitter in a corner outfield spot.
• 2008 Course Of Action: Hunter is likely going to continue his aggressive promotion to High A, where the Padres will likely keep him in center for the time being. 

13 – Nick Hundley (C)

• DOB: 8/8/83
• Draft: 2nd Round, 2005, University of Arizona
• 2008 Club:  San Antonio Missions (Double A)
• Height/Weight: 6-1/210
• Bats/Throws: R/R
• The Skinny: .A decent starting catching candidate, Hundley was rather average this season as the Missions’ starting catcher, hitting .247, but showing some power and a hint of plate discipline as well.
• The Good: Hundley is a big, durable catcher with solid arm strength.  He controls the running game well, throwing out many would be base thieves and should be able to stand up to the wear and tear of the job.  He’s also got some decent power on him as well.
• The Bad: He’s got a long swing and will have huge strikeout totals.  He’s never going to hit for a high average and is slow on the basepaths.  He also has a slow release, which hurts him against base runners at times. 
• Projection: Average.  Hundley could conceivably start for the Padres in a year or two, but while he’s got the better glove, Canham has the better bat, and sooner or later, the offense always wins.
• What He Can Be: A starting big league catcher/excellent backup catcher
• 2008 Course Of Action: Hundley will likely begin the year back in the San Antonio, but should finish in Portland by the end f the season.  With Canham in the system, his title of catcher of the future is in doubt.

14 – Will Venable (LF)

• DOB: 10/29/82
• Draft: 7th Round, 2005, Princeton University
• 2008 Club:  Portland Beavers (Triple A)
• Height/Weight: 6-2/205
• Bats/Throws: L/L
• The Skinny:  After a solid year down in Low A, Venable was rushed to High A and Double A, where he performed okay.
• The Good: A solid athlete, Venable has a very solid approach to the plate and hits for good contact.  He also showed some good power potential as well as decent speed. 
• The Bad: Because of his commitment to Basketball at Princeton, he’s somewhat raw still.  Also, his arm and range limit him strictly to left field. 
• Projection:  Low.  Venable is 25 and needs to keep rising if he wants to be a decent prospect for the Padres at some point in the future.  He could be an option next year for left field, especially if the Padres decide that Kouzmanoff doesn’t fit in their plans long term.
• What He Can Be: An average corner outfielder
• 2008 Course Of Action:  Venable will likely be started in Portland, where San Diego hopes he’ll be able to hold his own throughout the year.  However, should he be overwhelmed, the Padres could find themselves having put bump Venable back down to Double A, and his shaky prospect status would take another hit. 

15 – Cory Luebke (LHP)

• DOB:  3/4/85
• Drafted: 1st Round (S), 2007, THE Ohio State University
• 2008 Club:  Eugene Emeralds (Short Season)
• Height/Weight: 6-4/200
• Bats/Throws: R/L
• The Skinny: A late round flier by the Rangers last year, Luebke didn’t sign and instead went back to OSU, where he led the Big 10 Conference in ERA during the regular season.  After being selected, Luebke signed quickly and was outstanding in limited action with Short Season Eugene.
• The Good:  Luebke has average velocity for a left-hander, and throws in the 88-91 mph range.  He compliments it with a solid slider and is a groundball demon.  His command and control are excellent.
• The Bad:  His changeup is nothing special and he has limited projection.
• Projection:  Low.  Luebke doesn’t have much projection and really isn’t a power guy, but he should be a serviceable player in time.
• What He Can Be:  A middle reliever, or a good Lefty Specialist.
• 2008 Course Of Action: Luebke will likely be splitting the year between Low A and High A, depending on what the Padres have in mind.  Long term, the Padres feel that he should give him an excellent reliever that should replace one of their other, more expensive parts in the future.

And, just for fun...

Matt Bush (RHP)

• DOB:  2/8/86
• Drafted: 1st Overall, 2004, California High School
• 2008 Club: Rehab, Baby!!!
• Height/Weight: 5-10/189
• Bats/Throws: R/R
• The Skinny:  Famously selected by the Padres over Justin Verlander because the Padres were afraid of Verlander’s bonus demands, Bush has had a number of setbacks and hasn’t hit in any level of the organization before the Padres decided to transfer him to the pitching staff.  Bush did surprisingly well and was a lot better than anticipated, but unfortunately after his promotion from Rookie Ball, Bush injured his elbow and required Tommy John Surgery.  He’ll be out all year.
• The Good:  Bush made a rapid transition to the mound and showed a great deal of poise while pitching.  His fastball touched 98 and he showed an effective curveball and slider while tinkering with a changeup. 
• The Bad:  Aside from having to recover his command and control thanks to the Tommy John, as well as getting his delivery to flow well.
• Projection:  Average.  Bush would have had a lot more value as a pitcher, but still shouldn’t have been drafted Number One overall.  The Padres are kicking themselves for blowing this pick.  He’s got a long way to go and likely won’t see the big leagues for another three years, making this a long term project, with no end close by.
• What He Can Be: Likely A Setup Man, Although It’s Possible That The Padres May See A Little Hoffman In Bush, Judging By Their Similar Backgrounds And Circumstances.
• 2008 Course Of Action:  Bush will spend the season rehabbing and will likely make an appearance at some point in July with the Padres’ Arizona Rookie League Affiliate.  A more interesting situation should be if the Padres protect him on the 40 Man roster next year because of the Rule 5 Draft.  It’s possible that if he shows enough, he may get taken, resulting in this pick begin a complete and utter disaster.   This story just doesn't seem destiend for a happy ending.

Final Notes

The Padres’ system is very much improved, mostly because of the past couple of drafts and the sheer amount of picks available to them.  Several players in the system have the potential to be solid contributors in a couple of years, with a couple already beginning to make themselves known in prospect circles.  Because of the amount of youth on the Diamondbacks and Rockies, plus the young guns in the Dodgers’ system, San Diego is simply recognizing the writing on the wall that they will have to keep up or join the Giants in the NL West hell.  The problem with this system is that there really isn’t a surefire star here aside from Latos and Cumberland, though Antonetti may be an occasional All-Star.  All in all, this means that the Padres of the future will be a solid, but very much blue collar team that will fly under the radar of many people, but will surely contend.