Interesting discussion on Seattle.  Let's see what the hat chooses to go for this week...

Oh ####, it had to come up..

Washington Nationals

Well, this team finally has an owner and a GM and a new manager.  Now comes the hard part, trying to get this team back into shape and hopefully in the win column.  With free agency rapidly becoming expensive and the Nats having lots of hole sto fill, management has decided to rebuild the long neglected franchise from within.  They’ll get the chance to, as the amount of picks this team will have from last place finishes will only help.

Starting Rotation

1. John Patterson (RHP) – Patterson missed most of 2006 with a forearm injury, but was okay enough in 8 starts to give the Nats a feeling that at least one of their starters will be okay.  He’s the ace of this staff, even though he’s more suited to be a two. 
2. Jerome Williams (RHP) – This former San Francisco product will be given a chance to prove that he’s not done yet.
3. Tim Redding (RHP) – Redding is one of those palyers that just hasn’t put it all together for some reason or another.  He’s been inconsistent in the big leagues, but he has the potential to be so much more.  Redding works in the low 90s with his two- and four-seam fastballs, and he has a big-breaking curveball, plus a decent slider and changeup.  But for some reason, he hasn’t put it all together.  At the very least, he’s got a chance to redeem himself in Washington, where that huge park will give him some help.
4. Colby Lewis (RHP) – A former Rangers prospect, Lewis spent much of 2006 recuperating for arm surgery and will now try to win a job with the Nationals.  With the talent as bad as it is, plus the fact that there aren’t any better options available, I think he’ll get one.
5. Shawn Hill (RHP) – Hill was decent in 6 starts last year, which automatically earns him a job as the Nationals fifth starter.

Bullpen

• Chad Cordero (Closer) – Cordero didn’t save as many games as he did last season, but he did pitch very well.  With Cordero entering his arbitration years, as well as the fact that this team figures to be awful and won’t need the luxury of a solid closer for the next few years, Cordero has been shopped, though no team is willing to part with high ceiling talent for him…yet.
• Jon Rauch (Setup Man) – One of the more underrated arms in baseball, Rauch is a solid setup man and could be a closer if he got the chance.  As it turns out, there is one for him in Washington, as they’ve been shopping Chad Cordero for prospects.
• Emiliano Fruto (RHP) – Fruto immediately becomes on of the best arms in the thin Nationals system.  Fruto has talent, as he’s got a really good changeup and a good curveball with a 92-96 mph fastball.  But his extreme command problems have kept him from being a starter and he now looks like a setup man.  Still, if the Nats can harness his potential, he could be something special.  But that’s a big If.
• Ray King (LHP) – King was one of the most highly coveted relievers last season, but a late season collapse left him no choice to accept the Non-Roster invite of the Nationals.  He’ll likely make the team, as he’s one of the better relievers on the roster. 
• Luis Ayala (RHP) – Ayala missed all of last season after having Tommy John during spring training, but he's back this year to give more bullpen depth to the Nats.
• Micah Bowie (LHP) – Bowie was dominant in a 15 game stint, and should be another solid piece to what could be a fine bullpen.
• Saul Rivera (RHP) – This reliable right hander finishes off the bullpen.

Starting Lineup

1. Nook Logan (CF) – Logan is the best defensive outfielder of the bunch, hence he’s likely going to be the starting centerfielder.  Logan has a lot of speed and if he can develop some semblance of plate discipline, he’ll be a more than capable leadoff man.
2. Felipe Lopez (SS) – I know that people will have Lopez at second base, but in this case, I think Lopez should stay at shortstop and Ron Belliard, who was brought aboard to be a utilityman, should star, if the Nationals want to be able to win any games at all possible.  Lopez is an average defender with power and contact skills that should do well in the two spot, giving the Nats a bit of depth.
3. Ryan Zimmerman (3B) – Zimmerman had a Rookie of the Year caliber season and only just lost out to the actual winner, Hanley Ramirez.  Zimmerman had a spectacular season, hitting.287 with 20 homers and 110 RBIs while playing 157 games in what was an disappointing season for Washington.  The Nationals expect big things from Zimmerman in the future and he could become the second coming of Mike Schmidt. 
4. Austin Kearns (RF) – Kearns, was the other part of that baffling deal that Cincinnati made last season.  He hasn’t achieved the same level of stardom that his friend, Adam Dunn, has, but he can blame injuries for that.  Kearns is a good right fielder with some power and he’s locked up for 4 years.  He should hit fifth, but until Nick Johnson comes back, Kearns is hitting cleanup.
5. Brian Schnieder (C) – After signing a $16 million contract extension before the season, Schneider had a puzzling 2006 campaign, both at the plate and behind it.  He was able to finish strong however, finishing with a 55 RBIs and a .256 average, but he threw out only 30 percent of runners.  Schnieder will also be have to be a leader this season, as he’s going to be relied on to help bring along a young and inexperienced pitching staff.
6. Ryan Church (LF) – Church has the got the potential to be a solid left fielder and he’s capable of manning centerfield.  The Nats have also been shopping him for prospects as well, but so far, they’ve found no takers.
7. Ron Belliard (2B) – I’m surprised Belliard didn’t get any stronger offers, but I was his misfortune to become a free agent in a year when there were a lot of second baseman available.  Belliard can hit for some doubles power and is a capable defender at second.  He’s a better option than Cristian Guzman and he should win a starting spot in Spring Training at the earliest, April at the latest.
8. Travis Lee (1B) – I think that Lee will likely make the squad, as the Nats seem to like his glove and it’s possible that he can at least be average as far as a hitter.   He’ll be with the club until Johnson returns, then either released, traded, or sent down.

Bench

• Cristian Guzman (SS) – With Cristian Guzman returning from surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder, Guzman, who is considered the better defensive shortstop, was signed to a four-year $16.8 million contract before 2005 but has been a bust. He hit .219 in 2005 and didn't play last season, though team officials are hoping that Guzman's 2005 struggles were related to the shoulder injury and that he can revert to the player who hit no worse than .268 from 2001-04.
• Chris Snelling (OF) – Obtained in the Jose Vidro deal, Snelling has lost a lot of his luster thanks to injuries.  He’s likely going to be a fourth outfielder, unless he is able to rediscover some of his old promise, as well as hit for a high average, as the power isn’t there.
• Jesus Flores (C) – Taken by the Nats in the Rule V Draft, Flores was regarded to be the best prospect in the draft.  The Mets were surprised to see him go, as they didn’t think he was at risk.  Flores has great power potential, as seen from his 21 home runs in the Florida State League with the Mets while finishing third in the league with a.487 slugging percentage.  He’s still growing as a catcher, but he might be able to stay at the position.  Flores will likely stick with the Nats, as the club really isn’t expected to contend and they have the luxury of carrying a Rule V Pick for the necessary 90 games.   Due to the fact that the Nats don’t want to risk Flores stunting his growth, he won’t be played very much, if at all, while he’s with the big club.
• Dmitiri Young (OF) – Young still has some power left in him and could be useful to some extent off the bench.  Hey, the Nats have almost nothing here.  Work with me here. 
• Robert Fick (C/1B) – Fick is another option at first base should Lee flame out, but he can also play catcher and limit the exposure of Flores until he’s ready to be sent down.

Disabled List

• Nick Johnson (1B) – Johnson gets no love from many media outlets, despite the fact he’s actually a very solid first baseman that can hit for some power and be a good middle of the order presence.  Unfortunately for the Nats, he’s going to be out till June.
• Alex Escobar (OF) – Escobar was excellent in the short period of time he played, but he had to have labrum surgery in November and won’t be available till possibly after May.
• Brandon Claussen (RHP) – Claussen had a bad year for the Reds and is now going to try and prove that he’s a solid option again after he returns in May from rotation cuff surgery.  It’s possible that if he’s decent, he’ll could provide good value in a trade.
• Mike O'Connor (LHP) – A finesse lefty with average stuff, O’Connor hopes to be available sometime during the middle of the season, where it’s hoped that he could be able to diversify the lineup a bit.

Down On The Farm…

There is some young talent in the system, but unfortunately, it is almost all in the lower minors.  Jim Bowden has tried to make the Nationals younger and traded as many older players as possible to restock the minors.  He’s done a decent job of it, but still, the Nats will be bad for some time until their young talent is ready to contribute.  Such is the life of trying to follow the Florida Plan…

• Matt Chico (LHP) – Chico is a solid lefty that has a good three pitch repertoire than consists of a low-90s fastball that touches 94 at times, plus a curve and changeup that are good enough to survive in the majors.  He’s got solid control and command. The only real problem is that he’s a shorter pitcher that will likely going to be a back of the rotation starter.  He’s got a shot to win a job in the rotation, but it’s more likely that he’ll be in Triple A.
• Larry Broadway (1B) – I’ve got the strangest feeling that Larry Broadway will be back in the minors again, as the Nats appear to be interested in giving Travis Lee a shot.  Boradway hasn’t had a really solid performance until last season.  It’s unknown if the power he showed was for real or not, but if Broadway can prove that his sudden power performance is legitimate, he could come knocking in May if Lee continues to flame out. 
• Collin Balester (RHP) – Balester pitched well in Double-A in late-season look, and he’s got the potential to do even better.  Still only 20, Balester is mature for his age and wields his arsenal, a 90-94 mph fastball that has good movement and hard curveball.  He still needs one more pitch, and he’s trying to develop a changeup to fit the bill.  He’ll likely be back in Double A, but Balester could impress enough to merit a late season look.
• Kory Casto (LF) – Casto is a professional hitter has solid hitting skills, power and patience, all of which adds to a solid middle of the order bat to place behind Ryan Zimmerman.  Casto will likely be sent back to Triple A but he could force his way into Washington with a solid couple of months in Columbus.
• Travis Mock (RHP) – Mock was a third-round pick out of Houston in 2004 and he boasts solid stuff, starting with a 91-95 mph four-seam fastball and an 88-92 mph cutter, plus a trio of average pitches with his slider, curveball and changeup.  However, Mock’s biggest problem is that he’s very hittable, due to his tendency to leave a lot of pitches over the plate.  He’ll likely be given all the time he needs to work things out in Triple A.
• Shairon Martis (RHP) – The first player to throw a no-hitter in the World Baseball Classic, Martis was stolen from the Giants last fall for Mike Stanton, when the Giants felt that they could still compete.  Martis has two good pitches, a 91-93 mph fastball and hard, tumbling curve, that have carried him so far, but he needs a changeup or another pitch to keep him as a starter.  He’s still young, meaning that he could get better if he develops that pitch.  He’ll likely begin the season in Double A.
• Zech Zinicola (RHP) – Zinicola is a big reliever that has the potential to be a solid setup man.  He’s got a 92-94 mph fastball that has sinking action and low 80s slider that has late movement.  He’s one of the fast risers in the Nationals system and could end up playing in Washington by July.

In Conclusion

This is a bad team, really bad.  With the collection of talent on this team, it’ll be a stretch to say that the Nats will be able to win 60 games.  Hence, the Nats should also look at getting rid of some other talent on the team that isn’t in the pre-arbitration stages of development.  I think the Nationals will rue the day that they didn’t trade Alfonso Soriano to the Angels, who offered shortstop Erick Aybar and pitcher Ervin Santana in return.  Instead, the Nats plan (one first rounder and one compensation pick) blew up in their faces when Soriano signed with the Cubs (resulting in one compensation pick and one second round pick, since the Cubs’ first rounder was draft protected.  I expect this team to move some players at the deadline (closer Chad Cordero and shortstop Felipe Lopez the most obvious candidates with Ron Belliard a possibility if he really shines at second), but with Jim Jim Bowden pretty good at the draft, I expect the Nats to take advantage of some high picks for the next few years.  That won’t mask the fact that this team is going to be ugly to watch for the next couple of years.

Final Standing:  Fifth Place in the National League East

On The Block:  Pitching

Well, this is likely the last week for On The Block, since the deadline is approaching.  With that in mind, let's take a look at the categories at hand, starting with pitching.

Starters

 Here who is off the list of tradable commodities:

Jason Schmidt, Giants

Dontrelle Willis, Marlins

Greg Maddux, Cubs

With that out of the way, here who IS On The Block.

Freddy Garcia, White Sox - The White Sox starting pitching has fallen off considerably.  Jose Contreras is producing, Brandon McCarthy will NOT be moved, as it turns out, and Mark Buehrle has been servicable and Jon Garland has a no-trade clause for the year.  With that in mind, Garcia is the odd man out.  Rumors of Garcia being dealt for bullpen help have been circling around the Mets.  At the moment, it looks like this would be a good deal for both teams, as the White Sox bullpen is still very shaky.  Ideal Fit:  New York Mets, Texas Rangers.

Livan Hernandez, Nationals - The name that has been mentioned several times when it comes to starting, Livan Hernandez has been awful this season, going 7-8 with a ERA of 5.80.  In a Pitchers Park!  He does eat innings and is a proven post-season performer, but opponents are hitting almost .300 off of him.  Plus, he still has a huge contract.  Nonetheless, there is a market for him, as the market for starting pitching is shallow.  Because of the amount of money left on his contract, the Nationals would have to take a lesser prospect for his services.  Ideal Fit:  New York Yankees, New York Mets, Boston Red Sox.

Barry Zito, Athletics - Despite the fact that the A's are in them iddle of a playoff push, they are beginning to stumble.  A lack of offense is killing them and the Athletics sorely need an impact bat to help them reach the playoffs for the first time since 2004. And despite the fact that the Athletics are in the middle of a playoff run, GM Billy Beane has stated that Zito is not untouchable.  But there is a problem to that logic.  While Zito, a free agent at the end of the season, would bring a big bat and more, the problem is that Oakland really has no one to slide into Zito's spot, unless you trust Kirk Saarloos to help out.  Thus, Oakland would have to trade for a bat and a pitcher.  And this limits the amount of teams that Zito could go to.  Ideal Fit:  Boston Red Sox, New York Mets, Texas Rangers.

Relievers

Mike Gonzalez, Pirates - The Pirates closer is desired by several playoff contenders in hopes of shoring up their bullpen for a run.  In fact, many columnists are saying that the team that lands him in the NL West will win the division.  While I won't go as far as to say that, Gonzalez is a solid closer who would have 30 saves if he pitched for a different team.  The Pirates would do well to deal him in return for a nice prospect.  Ideal Fit:  Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants.

Joe Borowski, Marlins - While the Fish have stated that they won't trade any more players, Borowski is an older player who won't be much good to them in a few years.  If they were to trade him now at the height of his value, they could very well get another good prospect.  Borowski is a good closer, but would be even more valueable as a setup man to a contender.  Ideal Fit: Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants, Chicago White Sox, New York Yankees, Texas Rangers, Cincinatti Reds, St. Louis Cardinals.

Damaso Marte, Pirates - A great lefty reliever, Marte would be a good fit as a specialist/setup man almost anywhere.  Again, the Pirates could gain another decent prospect in return.  Ideal Fit: Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants, Chicago White Sox, New York Yankees, Texas Rangers, St. Louis Cardinals, Cincinatti Reds.

LaTroy Hawkins - Orioles.  Hawkins isn't a closer, but he'll function well as a setup man for a contender.  Again, the Orioles are in dire need of rebuilding their farm system. Because Hawkins is an older player, they would do well to shop him for something useful in the future.  Ideal Fit:  Chicago White Sox, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox.

On The Block:  Livan Hernandez

Because of starters going down, even the non-attractive starters are starting to look good in the eyes of some GM’s.  Here’s one:

Why He’s On The Block: Washington isn’t going to contend this year and Hernandez is having an off year.  Because Washington would be better suited toward building over the long haul, trading some stars that are a luxury could help the franchise long term.

Asking Price:  Medium.  Any team that wants him would have to send back a starting pitcher (average) and a B prospect, preferably a pitcher as well.

Negotiable:  No.  The Nats aren’t in a hurry to deal him.  They’re just listening to offers at the moment.

What He Offers:  Hernandez is an older pitcher, but he’s still quite serviceable.  Here’s what he offers.

·          Plus:  Innings eater.

·          Plus:  Decent strikeout totals

·          Plus:  Great fielding pitcher.

·          Plus:  Able to alter speeds of pitches.

·          Plus:  Doesn’t give out a lot of walks.

·          Plus:  Good control.  Great mechanics.

·          Minus:  Has lots of wear on him already.

·          Minus:  Has trouble with lefties.

He Stay Or Will He Go:  80%-20% that he stays unless the offer is really good.  So let’s see where he could end up.

·          New York Mets – 40%.   Rather than overpay for Barry Zito, Omar Minaya has been making inquires about the availability of Hernandez, whom he brought in when he was GM of the Expos.  In order to bring in Hernandez, the Mets would have to deal away depth.  Most likely, a package of centered around John Maine would be offered, though Minaya would likely try and pawn off mistake signings such as Jose Lima and Jorge Julio into the deal.   Most likely, the Nats will say no to any deal unless it includes Maine and Brian Bannister, which may be too steep of a price for the Mets to pay.

·          Milwaukee Brewers – 30%.   Because the Brewers are a bit short on pitching thanks to Ben Sheets injury problems, the Brewers could offer some B grade prospects not expected to be with the team to the Nats for Hernandez.  While Hernandez won’t dominate, he’ll certainly use up innings and keep batters at bay long enough to allow that powerful Brewer offense to give him run support.

·          San Diego Padres – 20%.  The Padres need a fifth starter and Hernandez could do well in that role for the Padres.  Plus, in a very winnable National League West, the Padres couldd only be one solid pitcher from making the playoffs.  But again, the lack of near ready prospects to send back kills their chances.

·          Cincinnati Reds – 10%.   Again, the Reds need another pitcher, perhaps one that could fill in the back of the rotation.  However, I’m not sure Hernandez would do well in that ballpark.  Plus, the Reds have nothing they could offer to the Nationals.

End Result – Traded to the New York Mets at the All Star break.