Why Coco Crisp is not long in Boston, why J.P. Riccardi is a horrible GM that should have been fired a long time ago, 2007 Free Agent Pitchers (Part 1 of 3) and the Royals' Rookie Closer.

Coco Not Long In Beantown

Tired of Coco Crisp yet Boston?

Don't worry.  He won't be there for long.

Simply put, for two reasons:

1. Andruw Jones is a free agent after this season
2. Jacoby Ellsbury has reached Triple A

Crisp has long been seen as a stopgap for Ellsbury, who is an OBP machine in the minors and looks to be the second coming of Johnny Damon in the Red Sox system.  He's a excellent centerfielder with speed, plate discipline, and insticts in the outfield.  And at this point in time, there's going to be a desire to see him sooner rather than later in Crisp continues to struggle.

As for Jones, Jones was pursued by Boston last season and was almost dealt for until the Red Sox balked at the Braves' demand for Jon Lester to be included in the deal.  With Jones nearing Free Agency and the Braves not likely to bring him back, he would be a excellent addition in the short term for the Red Sox, who could play him in center for one year while Ellsbury remains in Triple A for one more year.  Afterward, the Red Sox would allow Manny Ramirez to leave, then promote Ellsbury to center while allowing Jones to slide over to left field, where the overall Boston Defense would improve.  Jones would also serve as protection for Ortiz in the lineup, as his bat is just as potent as Ramirez'

Crisp in the meantime, would be quite attractive as a trade chip to teams needing a centerfielder and would net another prospect for the Red Sox, who need a third baseman who can succeed Mike Lowell. 

It's not a trade rumor, it's simply an obersvation that bears watching.

J.P. Ricciardi - A Disaster That Walks Like A Man

Apologies to the Daily Show for the tagline, but it fits Toronto's hapless GM.  For some reason or another, ownership is steadfastly standing by their GM, even though he's probably done far more harm to the organization than good, in terms of his wheeling and dealing.

Let's rewind a bit.  The Blue Jays dominated the American League in the early 90's, winning the World Series in 1992 and 1993, but had to jetison most of the team because of the strike and a decline in fan base.  The team worked itself back to try and rebuild itself from within, but the process cost then GM Gord Ash his job.  Ricciardi, then one of Billy Beane's lieutenants in Oakland, had made a name for himself as Oakland's director of personnel and was given the job.

Since then, Ricciardi has made some severely questionable decisions, in terms of the talent brought in and given away.  Here are the players Toronto has brought in that have made any sort of impact that are still on the roster:

• B.J. Ryan (LHP) - The O's former closer had an All Star caliber season before his Tommy John procedure cost him his season and Ricciardi's credability.
• Troy Glaus (3B) - Obtained in a trade with Arizona and probably one of the few trades where Toronto may have gotten the better deal.
• Lyle Overbay (1B) - Brought in to counterbalance Glaus.  A minor deal, really.
• A.J. Burnett (RHP) -

And here's who's gone, by trade or by free agency:

• Michael Young (SS) - Traded for Esteban Loaiza.  Loaiza was average in Toronto and left via free agency.  Despite his slump, he's done far better than any of the Toronto Shortstops they've fielded.
• Ted Lilly (LHP) - This capable lefty wasn't shown enough love to stay with the Jays.  Now he's knocking them down in Chicago.
• Felipe Lopez (SS/2B) - Traded to Cincinatti, I wonder how Toronto would be fared with a infield combination of Young and Lopez instead of what they're running out right now.
• Orlando Hudson (2B) - A smooth second baseman, Hudson has a decent bat that provides depth to the lineup.  The DBacks send their thank yous.
• Miguel Batista (RHP) - Oooh, another starting pitcher that's far better than what Toronto has right now.
• Dave Bush (RHP) - Milwaukee says Thanks Again.
• Carlos Delgado (1B) - A face of the franchise, Delgado was simply allowed to walk.  Terrible.
• Justin Speier (RHP) - A solid relief pitcher that helped cement the bullpen.  He was also allowed to walk and all the Jays got was the Angels' second round draft pick.
• Chris Carpenter (RHP) - Drafted by the organization and was let go.  Found stardom in St. Louis.
• Kelvim Escobar (RHP) - Another player allowed to leave, became a solid starter for the Angels.
• Cory Lidle (RHP) - The late Corey Lidle had success in the Blue Jays and then was also allowed to leave.
• Mark Hendrickson (RHP) - Traded to Tampa Bay, Hendrickson is actually a decent starter, who Toronto could use right now.

Ouch, that a lot of talent to let go, especially when you consider that many of these players would have helped Toronto compete in the short and long term and may have severely affected the race of the AL East and the American League as a whole.

But, the counterarguement is that in Oakland, the team has found ways of competeing in spite of losses of talent, for the draft pick compensation would result in high quality players that would help the big league club contribute immediately.  Such a strategy would work for Toronto, right?

Not exactly.

Here's the rundown of Ricciardi's drafts, which have been focused mostly on college players, and the players that have Toronto has passed on that have become productive major leaguers.  It should be noted that the two franchise cornerstone players, Vernon Wells and Roy Halladay, were not drafted by Ricciardi, but rather by the previous regime. 

• 2002 - Russ Adams.  Passed On:  Scott Kazmir (Mets), Nick Swisher (Oakland), Cole Hamels (Philly), Jeff Francouer (Atlanta), Joe Blanton (Oakland), Matt Cain (Giants).
• 2003 - Aaron Hill.  Passed On:  Chad Cordero (Nationals), Brandon Wood (Angels), Chad Billingsley (Dodgers)
• 2004 - David Purcey, Zach Johnson.  Passed On:  Josh Fields (White Sox), Philip Hughes (Yankees), Eric Hurley (Rangers), Huston Street (Oakland)
• 2005 - Ricky Romero.  Passed On:  Troy Tulowitzki, Mike Pelfrey, Cameron Maybin, Andrew McCutcheon, Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Garza,
• 2006 - Travis Snyder. 

Of all of these drafts, the Jays have let better players fall past them in order to draft college talent that they figured would have less of a change of a bust potential.  Of all of Ricciardi's drafts, only Snyder looks like he'll become anything special and allow Hamels and Cain to slip past them, along with Street, Garza and others, make Ricciardi's draft decisions look questionable at best.

Typically, it takes 5 years for it to see i####eneral Manager is working out or not for a franchise, as that is how long it takes for the talent development department for the team in order to bring up the fruits of the draft to the big league club.  Toronto hasn't done that and has hemmoraged more talent away from the club than it has to brought into it.  Toronto has misjudged their own free agent decisions, either by time, evaluation or money and the result has been a loss of players that the Jays had to keep around if they wanted to remain competitive.  I know Toronto isn't made of money like their other AL Rivals, but there is a point in time where you need to hold onto your own homegrown players, otherwise the drain on your club can become overpowering. 

2007 Free Agency - Starting Pitchers (Fours And Fives)

Continuing the look at free agency after this season, here is a look at starting pitching, namely back of the rotation starters.  This market looks rather pathetic, but there are a few attractive options that could work for a team in need of a fourth starter.

• Kenny Rogers (Tigers) – There’s going to be the usual health questions with Rogers, considering he’s now in his early 40’s and nearing retirement.  His stuff is very much diminished and he gets by more on deception than by pure raw stuff.  However, he’d be a suitable fourth starter for any team willing to pay for his services.  Unless he’s totally soured on management, I can see him taking a one year deal to finish his career in Texas, where it all started.
• Joe Kennedy (Athletics) – Kennedy will be hitting the free agent market at the right time.  He's a left hander with decent stuff that has seen his career turn around since he left Colorado.  Kennedy is off to a solid starter and a good season will net him a 3 year, $33 million deal from somebody.
• Kris Benson (Orioles) – [If $7.5MM club option is declined.]  I don’t expect Benson to return to the Orioles, as his tenure with Baltimore has pretty much been a disappointment all around, though to be fair, he was a relatively cheap date as far as what was given up (Jorge Julio and a John Maine that would have floundered in Baltimore).  Realistically, I expect Benson to take a incentive laden one year deal in order to boost his value once again.  Realistically, Benson is still young enough where he could afford to go that route and still obtain a multiple year deal afterwards, but you get the feeling that his stock has fallen so far that people regard him as one of the biggest over hyped talents in the past decade.  I think he’d be a decent three in the National League, but don’t hold me to that.
• Jon Lieber (Phillies) – Lieber is nearing the end of his career and is not going to be in line for a huge payday.  However, a one year deal isn’t out of the question, as teams are always willing to pay for talent.  Hey, Chan #### Park got an offer and he has worse stuff that Lieber does.  Lieber outmaneuvers hitters rather than blowing them away and may be able to put up roughly league average numbers in the right situation.  It’s not with the Phillies, so a team with a big ballpark may be the best thing for him. 
• Tomo Ohka (Blue Jays) – Millhouse’s favorite player will re-enter the free agent market after this year.  Ohka’s not a bad pitcher, as he’s reasonably durable and gets by with a lot of deception.  However, he’s a fighter and is willing to give you six innings of work unless he absolutely can’t go.  He’d be a valuable fourth or fifth starter on a National League team.
• Kyle Lohse (Reds) – The talking heads and pundits always talk about how Kyle Lohse has underachieved and should be a number two starter with his stuff.  The fact of the matter is that he’s strictly a number four with maybe ambitions of being a three.  However, he’s done fairly well since moving to the NL, so it’s possible that he may have just been a poor fit for the AL style of play.  Anyhow, if he continues to do fairly well, he’ll get well compensated for it by a team seeking pitching depth, possibly with a 3 year, $30 million deal.  Lohse features a fastball that clocks in the low 90’s and couples this with a slider that reaches the mid 80’s.  He’s also got a serviceable changeup that he has some command over, but not enough to make it a plus pitch.  The one thing Lohse does have going for him is that he’s fairly durable.
• Josh Fogg (Rockies) – About the only thing that Fogg offers is that he’s able to log in innings.  While there is some value to that, I’m not sure how great that serves a team when the offense is sputtering and they need a dominant pitching performance to win.

Joakim Soria – Another Rule V Pick Done Good (So Far…)

The Royals have made a move that is paying off big dividends so far.

And that is using a Rule V pick instead of just letting him gather dust, they took a chance on Soria when Octavio Dotel went down and he has delievered, posting a record of 1-1 with a 2.87 ERA and 6 saves in 7 opportunities.  Soria was a former San Diego Padres prospect that went unprotected and was picked by Kansas City, who saw the need for a solid pitching prospect.  So far, the result has been spectacular and it doesn't look like Soria will be headed by to the San Diego system anytime soon, if ever.

That's my time everyone.  Have a great weekend.

If you were an MLB General Manager and I offered you the following trade:

Middle of the Rotation Starter For Bullpen Arm With Large Upside And Average Pitching Prospect

How many of you would jump in favor of this trade?

Just about everyone.

Now, let's put the names back into the offer:

RHP Kris Benson For RHP Jorge Julio and RHP John Maine.

Would you still make the trade?

Answers are no.  Especially when you consider how much Maine has done since he was traded to the Mets.  This trade looks like a steal now.

But, it goes to show you.  Trades are best evaluated one year from the time the trade shakes out.  Other pitchers can get flipped, as the Alfonso Soriano deal showed, and pitchers can implode or fail to be affected, as the Austin Kearns deal showed.

But the Benson deal is an interesting one, because at the time, it was thought that the Mets were getting royally #### by the Orioles.

Let's take you back to the off-season of 2005.

Omar Minaya saw a need to improve a woefully horrific bullpen, which had been terrible the day before.  With the new amount of offense that had been acquired in trades and additions, Minaya felt that the least he could do was ensure that he had a suitable enough stopgap to hold the lead.

Hence the signing of BIlly Wagner and the deal for Duaner Sanchez.  Minaya saw himself working from a position of strength, as he felt that he could succeed with a relatively average rotation of the following:

• Pedro Martinez (RHP)
• Steve Traschel (RHP)
• Tom Glavine (LHP)
• Victor Zambrano (RHP)
• Brian Bannister (RHP)

Underwhelming, but serviceable with a good pen and offense.

Minaya also sought to get rid of a headache.  It was no secret that Minaya wanted Anna Benson, Kris Benson's controversial spouse, as far away from him and the Mets as possible.  He felt that Benson would at least net one more arm to help out the pen. 

Benson was reportedly offered to the Texas Rangers for RHP prospect Juan Dominguez, but the Rangers weren't interested, though Dominguez would eventually be traded to the Oakland Athletics later in the off-season.

Minaya sought another hard throwing pitcher to help solidify the pen and found a pitcher he thought suited the role nicely:  Jorge Julio, currently the property of the Baltimore Orioles.  Julio was an explosive arm that had been in decline and could possibly allow the Mets to move Aaron Heilman to the starting rotation.  Julio had legitmate power stuff, with a high 90’s fastball and a high 90’s slider and would look good in front of Wagner.

Baltimore had just lost closer B.J. Ryan to the Blue Jays and realistically, they were okay with that, as they had a nice young closer in Chris Ray.  However, they needed another arm in the rotation, as at the time they were unsure about whether or not Daniel Cabrera and Eric Bedard were front of the line starters.  Benson, despite a spotty track record, had a track record nonetheless and the Orioles felt that Benson's talent would fnally flourish when united with legendary pitching coach Leo Mazzone.  Plus, they were soured on Julio's decline from lights out ace to inconsistent closer and felt that Benson would be a steal.

The two sides discussed it, financial deals were worked out, and the deal was done.  It was thought to be a fair trade on both sides, though the O's thought they had gotten one by Omar.

Unfortunately for the Orioles, the news was leaked.  And the newspapers had a field day, calling for Minaya’s head and angry that Minaya would get so little for a middle of the rotation man.  Meekly, in order to save face, Minaya asked the Orioles if they would want to include another part of the deal.  Baltimore, eager for the deal to go through, agreed.  And here’s is where Maine would enter the picture.

Maine was a 24-year-old righthander that was a sixth-round pick out of UNC Charlotte in 2002, and saw his first extensive time in the majors in 2005, going 2-3, 6.30 in 10 games (eight starts).  He had great command of his 90-91 mph fastball, and he also threw a slider, curveball and changeup.  He was intriguing, but the Orioles had deemed Maine to be an average prospect ==, but thought that in the long run, he wouldn’t be able to translate his talent into results.  Part of it had to do with his nnumbers.  As said he went 2-3 with a 6.30 ERA in the majors, but also went 6-11 with a 4.56 ERA in the minors.  Buit this assessment was made in spite of the fact that Maine had posted solid numbers in his previous stops.  It’s likely that they viewed Maine to be a prospect that hit a wall.

Satisfied with the deal, both sides agreed to the swap.

Anna Benson had her day with the media, arguing that the Mets had traded her husband for a bag of balls. 

But that was the deal.  As it is was viewed at the time, Benson was a quality, middle of the rotation starter and Julio was viewed to be a closer candidate in need of new spaces and faces and places.  As for Maine, he was an interesting prospect, but nothing special.

Now, Maine looks like a right handed version of Andy Pettitte, Benson may be done, and Julio is on his fourth team in three years, having been flipped for Orlando Hernandez to Arizona and was flipped again to Florida for Yusmeiro Petit.

Is there any guarantee that Maine would have dominanted in Balimore had he not been traded?  No.  I believe Maine has largely benefited from working with the Mets' training staff and that his work with them has lead to his breakout.  If he had remained in Baltimore, for all we know, he may have been stuck in Triple A Hell, as a prospect that lacked any belief in him by the organization.

If this trade had been played out to completion, here's how it would have looked, with all the branches this original trade has sprung:

The New York Mets complete a four team deal with the Florida Marlins, Arizona Diamondbacks and Baltimore Orioles.

• New York Obtains:  RHP's John Maine, Orlando Hernandez
• Arizona Obtains:  RHP Yusmeiro Pettit
• Florida Obtains:  RHP Jorge Julio And Cash Considerations
• Baltimore Obtains:  RHP Kris Benson

Wow.  That's a lot of twists and turns for that deal.  When seen from that context, the Mets come out looking like geniuses, don't they.

Just a thought.  That's all. 

Next Time On Trades That Look Worse Now:  The Lasting Impact Of Johnny Damon And Edgar Renteria On Boston.

The Rangers Report

Current Record

2-4, Last In American League West

The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly From The Past Week

The Good

• Ian Kinsler – And to think people doubted Kinsler could be able to take on the duties for Soriano when the Rangers traded Sori in order to open up a spot for Kinsler.  He looks poised for a great season.
• The Young Guns In The Rotation – Brandon McCarthy and Robinson Tejeda have inspired a lot of confidence among the fans and look to be a couple of middle of the rotation horses for the next five years to come.
• Sammy Sosa’s Bloop RBI – Yes, it was accidental, but it was still funny as hell.
• Michael Young’s Inside The Park Home Run – Inside the parkers are always cool to watch.
• Ron Mahay – Mahay has been filthy so far to start the season and made several Red Sox htters look silly.

The Bad

• The Rest Of Michael Young’s At Bats – Mike has started the season badly, quite unlike him, but again, it’s the beginning of the season, so I’ll wait to raise some concern.
• Vicente Padilla’s Angels Start – Padilla was knocked around badly against the Angels, quite unlike Padilla last season.  However, Padilla pitched well at home, making it a little easier to breathe.
• Gary Matthews Jr. - Matthews came up big against his former team, inspiring columnists to rant about how foolish Tom Hicks and Jon Daniels were for not bringing him back.  Trust me, they'll change their tune.

The Ugly

• Jamey Wright’s Frisco Start – Wright was abused in a minor league start for Double A Frisco.  Wright blamed it on a lack of playing time, but this raises a serious area of concern of whether or not Wright is going to hack it as the Number 5 man in the rotation.
• The 2002 Draft - Joe Saunders again showed why the Grady Fuson era of Rangers scouting was so #### stupid.  In the 2002 Draft, Fuson selected Drew Meyer out of South Carolina.  Saunders was picked a few picks later by Anaheim.  Five years later, Saunders is a bonafide major leaguer.  Meyer looks bound for the Frontier League.

• The Weather - It looked like this weekend's game was in Boston from the looks of it.  Speaking of which...

• What The ####...WHY ARE THERE MORE BOSOX FANS IN OUR HOUSE - Why in Gods name are there more Red Sox fans than Ranger fans?  Come on, Metroplex, man up and support the #### team.  And I don't want to hear about how Red Sox fans care more.  Twelve years ago, Boston couldn't even sell out Fenway. 

Six Shots

• Rick Bauer was signed by the Philadelphia Phillies last week.  It’s a good pickup for the Phils, as Bauer can be a capable long reliever.  It would have loved to have kept Bauer and it seemed like the Rangers wanted to, but there was no room, especially after the dominant springs by Bruce Chen, Kameron Loe, and Joaquin Benoit.
• With Eric Gagne and Jamey Wright scheduled to be activated this week, this leaves the Rangers with the quirky predicament of who to send down.  Both would have to be relievers, as the Rangers are currently carrying eight.  Of the bunch, Mike Wood and C.J. Wilson have held their own.  Joaquin Benoit and Ron Mahay have been dominant and both are out of options anyway.  Akinori Otsuka is the primary setup man and the Rangers want to hang onto Bruce Chen.  That leaves the cuts likely to be consisting of Kameron Loe and Scott Feldman, unless Chen is traded, which, judging by the Yankees’ current predicament, isn’t outside of the realm of possibility.  Interestingly enough, Chen has reworked his contract in order to stay a Ranger and has even offered to accept a demotion to Oklahoma if he passes through waivers. 
• Despite the public ceremony where the Rangers declared that Eric Gagne would be the closer, Ron Washington and Jon Daniels have stated that Gagne will work his way back into the closer’s role, meaning that the job will be Aki Otsuka’s for the time being until Gagne proves that he’s ready to take it back.
• During the last off-season, Omar Minaya offered the Rangers Kris Benson in exchange for RHP Juan Doinguez.  Texas refused, still seeing Dominguez as a bonafide option in the rotation.  Benson was instead sent to Baltimore, where he was okay.  Dominguez later soured on the Organization was was traded to Oakland as a part of the three way trade that netted John Koronka and John Rheinecker.  Dominguez never pitched an inning for the A's and was cut this past winter.
• I know it's early, but damn, it's hard to see John Danks in a White Sox Uni.
• More and more, I wish to gd that Mark Teixeira had begun his rookie season in the minors.  The extra time sent down there would mean the Rangers could have netted almost a full extra season with Tex as he would have qualified for arbitration only this past off-season.

Coming up next week:  Answering The Question Asked In My Email Often, What Happens If Tex Bolts.  I Get Sick Of Answering It, But I'll Detail It, Once And For All.

Wow, I go off for training and the Baseball World goes bananas.  Well, I'll update the Kris Benson situation later, but for right now, let's check out the next team drawn out of the hat...

Hmmm, the hat chose to stay in the AL.

Minnesota Twins

I thought I was right last year when I predicted that the Twins would fall off last season and finish third in the division last year.

Then the Twins went out and won the AL Central.

So you wouldn’t think that I would go with them to win this year.

Nope.  Ain’t happening.

Here's why...

The Twins are now wihtout two-fifths of that rotation from last year, with Francisco Liriano out for the season and Brad Radke retiring.  Plus, with the other powers vastly closing the gap between the Twins, plus the amount of youth and inexperience that the Twins will be putting in, things could get ugly really fast.

 Starting Rotation

1. Johan Santana (LHP) – He’s the one sure bet among the Twins pitchers, with most of the rotation being made up of question marks or youngsters.  Santana should continue to dominate the American League and will probably be among the league leaders in ERA, Wins, and Strikeouts.  But none of the will matters, as the Twins are in some trouble as far as the rest of the rotation is concerned.
2. Matt Garza (RHP) – I would prefer that Garza spend another year in Triple A before heading into the rotation, but with the losses of Radke and Liriano, Garza will be forced to be the Number Three starter for the Twins.  Garza was forced to step up for the Twins midway through the season, and was hit hard, as expected for a starter with only one year of pro experience, which was said to have exhausted his arm.  He is also still learning how to mix in all of  his pitches, also chalked up to inexperience.  Theoretically, Garza has enough skills to become an All-Star.  The only thing left for him is to learn by the seat of his pants.
3. Carlos Silva (RHP) – Liriano’s unfortunate need for TJ resulted in Silva having to return for another year.  Silva doesn’t look like he’s going to be much more than a pitcher that will rack up some innings, maybe break .500, and will look very ugly doing it.
4. #### Bonser (RHP) – Bonser has been underrated for years and is in reality a very good pitcher that has a lot of upside.  Inexperience will hurt early on, but he’ll likely be a useful pitcher that can eat innings in the back of the rotation that could provide a dominant performance every now and than.  My long term forecast is that he is on average a 13.12, 4.20 pitcher per year, very similar to Joe Blanton of the A’s.
5. Glen Perkins (LHP) – Perkins is a power lefthander, throwing a fastball that sits at 90-94 mph and striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings.  He complements the heater with a hard curveball.  The problem is that Perkins is VERY flyball friendly, which will give the outfield defense a workout.  With the Twins needing starters (and does anyone really expect Sidney Ponson to make the team), Perkins will likely be in the final rotation spot.

Bullpen

• Joe Nathan (Closer) – One of the best closers in the business, Nathan has dominated baseball without much fanfare.  Nathan has been pretty healthy the past few years and I doubt that will change anytime soon.  Minnesota needs to get something done with him in order to keep him around for the remainder of his career.
• Juan Rincon (Setup Man) – One of the best setup men in the business can spot close if Nathan needs a day off.
• Jesse Crain (RHP) – Teams continue to contact Minnesota about the availability of this 7th inning performer, as he is could enough to close on most teams.
• Pat Neshek (RHP) – This sidearm pitcher gives a different look to complement quality setup men Rincon and Crain.
• Matt Guerrier (RHP) – Guerrier had a solid season by the numbers, but looking closely, he was lights out in May and August, lit up in April and June, and average in September.  Weird.
• Dennys Reyes (LHP) – Solid lefty finishes off a very strong bullpen.

Projected Lineup

1. Luis Castillo (2B) – Castillo was a solid addition to this team, bringing Gold Glove defense at second while serving well as a lead off man.  His only flaw is a lack of power, but with his solid hitting skills and his base stealing ability, he should continue to provide on base skills at the top of the order.
2. Nick Punto (3B) – After spending almost his entire career as a middle infielder, Punto will most likely be the Twins’ starting third base option.  Punto doesn’t have the power usually associated with an infield corner, but he’s a solid hitter and can get on base. 
3. Joe Mauer (C) – The best young catcher in the game today.  Mauer comes into the season as the defending AL Batting Crown holder and continues to establish himself as one of the games elite catchers.  He should continue to hit well above the .300 mark and could continue to improve his power.  Mauer emerged as a run producer last season and should help set up the mashers behind him.  The Twins were smart enough to lock him up for the next four years.
4. Michael Cuddyer (RF) – Cuddyer finally developed into the run producer Minnesota hoped he would and is entering his prime as a hitter.  He seems to have found his niche in right field and should help anchor a solid Twins offense for the next few years, until he begins to get expensive around arbitration time.
5. Justin Morneau (1B) – The AL MVP (should have been Mauer), Morneau also developed the power that Minnesota had hoped he would exhibit, batting .345 with 28 homers and 113 RBI’s after May 9th.  He’s likely to continue growing as a hitter, as he’s only 25, and will give the Twins another solid slugger in the heart of the order.  Like Cuddyer, there is also a question of whether or not Morneau will be moved as he becomes more and more expensive during arbitration.
6. Torii Hunter (CF) – Health has been a bit of an issue for him in recent seasons, but Hunter should be solid for at least one more year.  He might be able to hit for a high average (not likely) with some power (probably) and will provide some solid defense.  But he’ll probably start to decline after this year, thanks to the toll the injuries that have tacked up over the years.  He’ll probably miss time this year too.
7. Rondell White (LF) – White became somewhat competent as the year went on.  He’ll likely hit for some power and play some decent defense, but I wouldn’t look for him to be a long-term option in Minnesota. 
8. Jason Bartlett (SS) – Bartlett emerged as a solid shortstop as the season went on.  Bartlett can hit for high averages and with some power and could be a base stealing threat as he gets older.
9. Jason Kubel (DH) – Kubel has got some power, but realistically, he’s not what you’re looking for in a DH.  He’s penciled in right now because I’m not sold anyone else (and he’s listed as such on the Twin’s website.)

Bench

• Mark Redmond (C) – Redmond is a high-quality backup and a strong clubhouse leader.  The only thing he lacks is a strong bat.
• Jeff Ciriillo (1B/3B) – Cirillo's primary position in his career has been third base, but he also has the ability to back up first and second. He also brings a solid bat, as he batted .319 with three home runs and 23 RBIs in 112 games and 263 at-bats last season for Milwaukee.
• Lew Ford (OF) – Useful fourth outfielder can play all the outfield positions.  Can’t hit a lick, though.
• Jason Tyner (OF) – Powerless bat off the bench can hit for average.  And that’s it.
• Glen Williams (IF) – Utility guy has some power.  If I had to pick a non-roster invitee to make the team, it’s him, unless the Twins sign a power option, then he’s it.

The Disabled List

• Francisco Liriano (LHP) - Liriano is shut down for much of the year thanks to Tommy John and won't be due back until September at the latest.  I don't expect the Twins to activate him unless he recovers from TJ really really fast, but even then, he might not have the velocity or the control to help Minnesota.

Down On The Farm…

• The Twins system is big on pitching, not so big on offense.  They’ve tried to fix this deficiency by drafting bats in early rounds in recent years, but none of those picks will make an impact this year, with the lone bat being groomed into Luis Castillo’s successor.
• Kevin Slowey (RHP) – Slowly doesn’t have solid stuff, but his command rumored to be the best in the minor leagues, which allows him to outmaneuver hitters rather than blowing them away.  He could see some time during the season, if Silva or one of the other pitchers flames out or ends up on the DL. 
• Alexi Casilla (SS/2B) – A switch hitter that is actually quite similar to Luis Castillo.  He’s being groomed to be his successor and will likely spend the year in Triple A.

In Conclusion

The Twins have lost far too much in their rotation and are depending largely on the best pitcher in the league, a retread, two rookies that should be back in Triple A for the year, and a fourth man in the rotation to carry them to the playoffs.  I don't think it's enough for them to get by again.

Final Standings:  Fourth In American League Central

Team Preview Update:  The Baltimore Orioles

Kris Benson's season ending rotator cuff surgery kills any chance of the Orioles putting up respectability in the division.  Now, the rotation is much shallower behind Bedard and will depend much on the hopes and dreams that the other pitchers can somehow put something together.  While the Orioles would be better off giving the spot in the rotation to one of the youngsters, Hayden Penn being the best option, they will likely overpay for a starter that really has no business starting in the American League.  Expect a long season for the guys in Camden Yards.

Who’s ready for more previews?

Okay, let’s see who the hat likes today…

Hmm.  An AL Team this time.

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles have been killed by bad free agent acquisitions, defections, scandal, and the meddling of a owner that holds way too much control for the team to be successful.  Add it some rather poor trades over the years and it’s safe to say that the Orioles have just shot themselves in the foot, but have emptied the entire clip into it.

Starting Rotation

1. Erik Bedard (LHP) – Bedard emerged as the Orioles ace last season and lead the team in strikeouts and in starts.  Bedard will likely lead the team again, as he’s clearly become the best starter on the roster, and he keeps improving, he’ll be an easy choice for the All-Star team and a building block for the Orioles to build around.
2. Kris Benson (RHP) – Benson was pretty much how people projected him to be.  An innings eater that will break close to .500 as far as win totals go.  Benson will likely be the number two starter in the rotation, even though he should be lower.  Looking at the Orioles roster, I doubt that any of the other starters will knock him down a peg unless Hayden Penn comes on strong and takes a job in the rotation away from Adam Loewen or Daniel Cabrera.
3. Daniel Cabrera (RHP) – Cabrera was awful last season, but he did improve as the season went on.  The onus is on Cabrera to improve, more than any other pitcher, as Wright and Benson are known quantities.  Because should Cabrera again be terrible, it’s going to be a long season in Baltimore.
4. Jaret Wright (RHP) – A pretty decent gamble by the Orioles, as Wright is cheap and the Orioles really had nothing to lose except for the talented, but portly right hander Chris Britton.  Wright was healthy last season and went 11-7, 4.49 in 140 innings.  Wright isn’t a guy that will go the distance, never has, but if the bullpen is improved, than six is really all the Orioles will need him for.  He’s an average pitcher that will compete to win, and it’s possible that reuniting him with his former pitching coach, Leo Mazzone, will make an difference in his performance.
5. Adam Loewen (LHP) – The Orioles had some high hopes for Loewen, but injury shut him down for months and when he returned, he was less than stellar.  Loewen will likely be the fifth starter this season and, to be honest, he should actually provide average production from the position.  It won’t be pretty, but it will be workable.

Bullpen

• Chris Ray (Closer) – The Orioles passed on re-signing B.J. Ryan partially because they believed in Chris Ray.  Ray rewarded the Orioles with a rookie of the year caliber season in which he went 4-4 with a 2.73 ERA and 33 saves.  An even better piece of info is that Ray was better on the road than at home, a plus when you have several of the games best offensive players in your division.  All things considered, Ray should continue to be a promising young closer.
• Danys Baez (Setup Man) – Baez was awful last season, making the prospects received from LA by the Devil Rays more palatable.  Baez surely can’t be as bad as he was last season and it’s possible with Leo Mazzone in Baltimore that he can regain some form of his old dominance.  But then again, we’ve seen many closers implode and never be the same again.  Hence, that three year deal of his is a lot more o####amble than the Orioles’ brass sees it.
• Hayden Penn (RHP) – There’s a lot to like about Penn.  He’s got great size and still can add some weight on and he has been able to throw a mid-90s fastball, change-up and curve for strikes.  His biggest problem has been command, leading to more walks and home runs than he should be giving up.  Penn will likely be in the bullpen to give him some experience, but he could be thrust into the rotation, depending on whether or not Loewen or Cabrera imploded. 
• Jaime Walker (LHP) – Orioles paid quite a lot of money to steal this lefty from the Tigers.  I’m not sure that’s a wise decision, as his appearances have been decreasing over time, possibility due to a lack of durability or injury.
• Chad Bradford (RHP) – Former Met took the Orioles money to move back to the AL.  He was solid last season and so far, things look to be pretty good as far as projections go.
• Scott Williamson (RHP) – Not sure why the Orioles went after him.  He could have just been an excuse to spend money.

Projected Lineup

1. Brian Roberts (2B) – This solid leadoff man and offensive beat should continue to improve as he distances himself more and more from this Tommy John procedure.  I think he’ll have a big year, and will be making a case for a huge raise, one way or another.
2. Corey Patterson (CF) – Entering his walk year, Patterson should be a solid fit in the second spot, and regained much of that luster he had when he was with Chicago (before Dusty Baker drove him crazy.)
3. Nick Markakis (RF) – This young rookie put up monster numbers after his callup and should be a solid producer for many years to come.  He’s not going to be nearly as good as his stat line indicates, but he projects to be very much like a Grady Sizemore type of player.
4. Miguel Tejada (SS) – Tejada really should move over to third base, as he’s no longer got the mobility or the range to play the position well.  Unfortunately, ego won’t allow him to accept a move, so the Orioles will just have to live with it.  He’s also losing power, which is very worrisome considering that the Orioles are looking at him to be the cleanup hitter and main power source on this team.  He should produce a batting average around .310 with 20 or so homers, but look for the RBI totals, and perhaps the injuries, to begin piling up before too long.
5. Aubrey Huff (DH) – Huff really isn’t the emerging star that he was back in 2003, but he still is a quality signing as far as the Orioles go.  Huff still can hit for power, he takes walks and produces well enough to be a DH.  He can also play the outfield and infield corners (not well, but he can play them), allowing them to swap him in for Millar or Payton at any point in time.  All in all, Huff gives the Orioles a pretty nifty #### for their buck.
6. Melvin Mora (3B) – Mora is also another hitter that seems to be losing punch in this lineup as he gets older.  But Mora, like Tejada, was also fairly productive and did a pretty good job at third base.  He should be okay for another season, provided he hits farther back in the order and the onus isn’t on him to be a main run producer.
7. Ramon Hernandez (C) – Baltimore did well to acquire the former Padre, who was just hitting his prime at 30.  Hernandez is solid defensively and able to it for power and his average.  In a sense, he’s rather much like Javy Lopez, the man he replaced.  Hernandez should be able to keep up his production for another three years, but by then his deal should be finished and he’ll be able to transition to another position or become a DH, depending on production.
8. Jay Payton (LF) – Payton did nicely in left field for Oakland, but he took the bigger payday in Baltimore than what Oakland offered for him to stay.  Payton should provide some very solid performance as long as he gets some time off now and then, because let’s face it, he’s not exactly entering his prime here.
9. Kevin Millar (1B) – Millar improved from his awful 2005, but he just went from awful to mediocre.  Expect much of the same this year.

Bench

• Adam Stern (OF) – Stern is a solid defender and can play all of the positions, plus serve as a pinch runner.  But unfortunately, he hits worse than Bako.
• Paul Bako (C) – A solid defender, but that bat is awful.
• Jay Gibbons (OF) – A barrage of injuries ruined a promising season for him early on, and his health in spring is something you should watch.  It’s possible that if things shake right for him, Gibbons may get back to 25 homers and 90 RBI if he stays healthy.  With Jay Payton’s health not the best in the world, he should get a fair shake.
• Freddie Bynum (UTIL) – This former Cubs utility guy hit .252/.308/.456 in 71 games with the Cubs last year.  His primary asset is his speed and his versatility, as he played all three outfield positions and second base last year, and shortstop and third base if needed.

 Down On The Farm…

The Orioles have a nice young core of talent to build around, with Markakis and Ray looking like future stars and Loewen, Cabrera and Penn possibly having impact potential.  But the system is lacking in ready prospects for the moment, with only these guys possibly having some affect at some point during the season.

• Garrett Olson (LHP) – This Cal Poly product moved quickly through the system with thanks to a plus fastball and curve.  He’s got a favorable changeup and has very neat mechanics and can last through games.  Unfortunately, as a college pitcher, he’s pretty much a finished product, meaning he’ll be a back of the rotation innings eater at best.
• James Hoey (RHP) – Hoey doesn’t project as a starter, but he could be a great reliever and setup man.  Hoey’s got extraordinary velocity, with a fastball that sits in the high 90’s and can hit over 100 at times.  But the lack of a breaking pitch limits his success, as seen when he was destroyed during a major league call up. 
• Jeff Fiorentino (OF) – A poor man’s Jay Payton, Fiorentino is on the short list for prospects to be called up in the event of an emergency.  Fiorentino has solid plate discipline and makes good contact with the bat.  He has average power and can play all of the outfield positions. He should be a solid bench player in the future.

In Conclusion

No way in hell this team finishes higher than 4th (unless Peter Angelos has the entire 25 man rosters of the Red Sox, Yankees and Blue Jays kidnapped.)

 Final Standing:  Fourth in the American League East

Okay, time for my annual team preview.  Unlike last year, where I posted the divisions all together, I thought I'd break down the roster and forsee how the teams will fall together.  Teams are written in the order that I draw them out of a hat.

And the first is...

####.

New York Mets

The Mets dominated the National League East last season, riding a awesome offense along with a fantastic bullpen for much of the season.  But the rotation, thin at the best, was decimated wtih Victor Zambrano needing to undergo Tommy John and Pedro Martinez being shut down.  Thus, the team had to rely on unproven starter John Maine, whom I thought was a steal in the Kris Benson trade, the aging but still effective Tom Glavine, and the sudden resurgence of Orlando Hernandez.  The team was able to make the playoffs, but the lack of pitching cost the Mets dearly in the post-season, when they fell short against the St. Louis Cardinals, who's own pitching rose up to become dominant.

The off-season brought little relief, as the Mets underbid on Barry Zito, a pitcher they needed, who instead went to San Francisco.  The Mets' other option, Jeff Suppan, signed with Milwaukee when they failed to act.  So, the Mets are again having to depend on a staff that is too old and too young at the same time. 

Starting Rotation

1. Tom Glavine (LHP) – Glavine should really be in the middle of the rotation at this point in his career, but because of all the hell that the Mets have gone through as far as their rotation woes are concerned, he's their ace.  I think Glavine will get his 300th win this season, but asking him to put up a Cy Young caliber performance is asking too much of him.
2. Orlando Hernandez (RHP) – Hernandez was a non factor during his brief time with the Diamondbacks, but regained some semblance of his own dominance when he joined the Mets early in the season in the trade for Jorge Julio.  Much of this has to do with the fact that Hernandez moved from one of the most hitter friendly parks in the majors to one of the more pitcher friendly ones.  Hernandez can still eat innings like the old days, but his stuff has clearly fallen off the face of the earth.  He should be no more than a fifth starter.  On the Mets, he’s the number two.
3. John Maine (RHP) – Young starter that was deemed expendable by the Orioles wound up being the steal of the off-season.  Maine should be a solid middle of the rotation horse for many years to come. 
4. Mike Pelfrey (RHP) – A BIG Pitcher (6’7”), Pelfrey was forced to start only one year after he was drafted.  He did a good job, considering the circumstances, though it should be noted that he was quite raw at times, but that’s understandable.  Pelfrey’s got great talent, with his fastball that sits in the mid 90’s with good movement, occasionally touching 97, along with a cutter and a sinker and curve that scouts, Keith Law chief among them, think he should junk for a slider, which he started to in the AFL this season.  He’s got the potential to become a top of the line starter, but at the moment, Pelfrey will just be relied upon to keep the Mets alive at the fifth spot.  Depending on how strong Sosa and Perez do in Spring Training, Pelfrey will either be in the big club or back at Triple A.  I think he makes it.
5. Chan #### Park (RHP) – Park has really done nothing the last few years to prove that he's still capable of starting, but the Mets seem sold enough to give him a shot at the fifth starter's job.  I think Tomo Ohka would have been a better option.

Bullpen

• Billy Wagner (Closer) – Wagner was solid as the closer, as hoped, but he was shaky at times and looked very hittable at times, especially in the playoffs.  The off-season should have given him enough rest to be ready for another season, but, to be sure, the Mets should restrain using Wagner in tie game situations early on in the season.
• Aaron Heilman (Setup Man) – Heilman would prefer to start, but the fact is that he doesn’t have the repitoire to be a starter. 
• Ambiorix Burgos (RHP) – Burgos was signed as a 16-year-old out of the Dominican Republic in 2000, and he took Royals’ scouts breath away with a fastball that hit triple digits.  Unfortunately, he never was able to master a proper slider or changeup to take advantage of his heater and as a result, he was disappointing enough that the Royals traded him to the Mets (though the Royals did obtain Brian Bannister, a pitcher who could do well for them.)  Burgos could be a valuable closer and setup man, provided that the Mets are able to develop him, which I believe the Royals failed to do.
• Scott Schoeneweis (LHP) – Schoeneweis was able to parlay 16 dominant appearances for the Reds into a megabucks deal.  Only Scott Boras could do such a thing.  Anyhow, Schoeneweis is a sinker-slider pitcher who's significantly more effective against lefties.  He’s likely going to be a LOOGY, which honestly, I’m wondering why the Mets went out to get him.  Surely there were better options available via trade…
• Duaner Sanchez (RHP) – One of the Mets’ primary workhorses in the pen, it was a car accident that ended Sanchez’s season.  The Mets liked him enough to bring him back another season.  Sanchez will likely pitch seventh inning duty, setting up Heilman.
• Pedro Feliciano (LHP) – Now here’s a solid lefty reliever.  Last season was Feliciano’s first full season tour of duty in the majors.  He rewarded the Mets with a 2.06 ERA and a 7-2 record.  His biggest problem is that he can’t fielding, making groundballs a problem when hit back to him.
• Jorge Sosa (RHP) – Sosa was signed off the garbage heap after being non-tendered by the Cardinals.  Sosa has below average stuff and had issues with his control for much of last season.  It’s possible that he could rebound, especially with a talented offense and a pitcher’s ballpark, but in the end, it’s all going to depend on his ability to reclaim some semblance of his 2005 season.  In spite of him being signed as a starter, I think he’ll most likely wind up in the bullpen.

Projected Lineup

1. Jose Reyes (SS) – A great little speedster, Reyes became the first player to swipe 60-plus bases in back-to-back seasons since Marquis Grissom in 1991-92.  He was able to increase is average last season thank's to an improvement in plate discipline, ad he's got surprising power in his small frame.  He was only one home run and three triples short of joining Willie Mays (1957) as the only players in history with at least 20 doubles, triples, home runs and stolen bases.  His defense is solid and his range is pretty good as well.  The best part is that he's only 23 and bound to continue improving.  With Reyes now locked up long term, the Mets have ensured that this young talent isn't going anywhere..
2. Paul Lo Duca (C) – A solid number two hitter, Lo Duca doesn’t hit for much power, but he does hit for a pretty good average and he does a decent job of getting on base.  He’s also still a valuable catcher defensively and does a good job of managing his pitchers, though John Thompson will disagree. 
3. Carlos Delgado (1B) – Always a power hitter, Delgado has slugged at least 30 homers with at least 91 RBI in each of his past ten season.  While his batting average has dropped, he’s never really been a big batting average guy and he is getting older.  He remains a quality defender at first, but the most troubling stat on Delgado is his miserable .226 average against lefties and his declining on base percentage.  Still, all that side, Delgado looks like he’s got one more star caliber season before he begins to start seriously declining.
4. Carlos Beltran (CF) – After being regarded as a bust following a poor 2005 season, Beltran bounced back this past year, putting together a MVP caliber season.  Part of this is due to Beltran having protection in the lineup, though a lot also has to do with him finally being comfortable with Shea’s environment.  Beltran will be a solid middle of the order bat for years to come, plus the fact that he’s a Gold Glove caliber centerfielder helps matters a lot, don’t it?   The only knock on Beltran is the mediocre average and the fact that he doesn’t steal more often, but in reality, those are rather small quibbles about a quality player.
5. David Wright (3B) – A star n the making, Wright had a solid season last year and is a special hitter, looking to be capable of averaging at least a .300 batting average, 30 home runs and 90 or more RBI per season, plus playing Gold Glove Caliber defense at third (he will win one, just you watch.)  The most troubling stat about Wright is his miserable second half of the season and power outage following the Home Run Derby.  Still Wright is young and will improve as he ages (he’s only 24 years old.)   Hence, Wright will remain a solid contributor to the Mets for years to come.  He’s just not going to be the main guy carrying the offense, as he struggled with that role in 2005. 
6. Moises Alou (LF) – Alou is 40 years old, but he’s still a potent bat and can hit for a fair amount of power.  He can murder lefty pitching and should be valuable in this lineup, especially since he’s not expected to be the focus of the lineup.  The only problem is that he’s having trouble staying healthy, meaning that the reserves will see plenty of time subbing for him in later innings and double headers. 
7. Shawn Green (RF) – Green isn’t the offensive force he used to, as he’s been losing power for the past three years.  He’s still got potential to be a late order threat, but as I said, he’s not the force in the lineup he was when he was with the Dodgers.  Even worse, he’s losing mobility in the field, making him an adventure in right.  . 
8. Jose Valentin (2B) – Becoming the starter in May, Valentin posted good numbers and earned himself a raise this season along with the starting job. 

Bench

• Julio Franco (1B) – Still going strong even though he’s in his late 40’s, Franco did fine in limited duty last season with the Mets. He still has some pop in his bat and did well in pinch-hit duty.  With Carlos Delgado getting older, Franco should figure to get some playing time to spell him.
• Endy Chavez (OF) – Chavez’s value is that he can capably play all three outfield positions well and has enough of a bat to be able to adequately fill in for you in a extended capacity without killing you. 
• Anderson Hernandez (SS/2B) – Hernandez is still young enough to where he could develop into an average regular somewhere in the middle infield.  With Jose Valentine getting older, Hernandez could get a chance, but I think his small build will cause problems for him.
• Ramon Castro (C) – A decent enough catcher, defensively.  Offensively, he’s a whole in the lineup about the size of Manhattan.
• Lastings Milledge (OF) – I believe that Milledge will make the team, as the health of Alou and Green are far from sure things.  Milledge has the potential to be a star, but things haven’t worked out for him at Shea, with the questions of his character and maturity coming up.  However, to be realistic, Milledge can contribute to the Mets this season, whether it’s spelling Alou or Green or even playing some centerfield to boost his trade value.  But at this point, there’s very little left for him to accomplish in the minor leagues.

Disabled List

• Pedro Martinez (RHP) – Well, the collapse of Pedro Martinez finally came, in which Pedro’s body finally broke down, resulting in Martinez getting shut down for the season.  The loss of Martinez was a big reason why the Mets lost in the playoffs, as the Mets counted on him solidifying the rotation and pitching well in the off-season.  Martinez won’t be available until at least July, and it’s unknown what exactly he can give the Mets when he comes back.
• Guillermo Mota (RHP) – Technically not on the DL, but there isn’t really a place to put Mota, unless I create a list called “Suspended List.”  Mota was dominant once he was sent to the Mets late in the season.  Then came the steroid bust.  Mota won’t be an option until late May, so we won’t see how much of that dominance was chemically induced until then.  If it turns out that his performance was legitimate, then Mota will allow the Mets to

Down On The Farm…

The Mets do have some talented arms in the system, but many aren’t ready to graduate yet.  So, aside from a few options, like Humber and Soler, both detailed below, there is little help coming anytime soon.  Thank god that the lineup is mostly set.

• Oliver Perez (LHP) – Perez was one of the most talented young lefties in baseball until something made him god-awful.  Perez won only three games last year, but did come up big in the post-season.  The Mets still believe in his talent, otherwise they wouldn’t have traded for him.  He’ll likely be sent down though, to try and get his mechanics worked out. 
• Philip Humber (RHP) – Drafted in the first round in the 2004 Draft, Humber did well in limited innings until he had to undergo Tommy John, which cost him all of 2005 (Rice players seem to have developed a tendency for injury.)  Humber was able to come back in 2006 remarkably well and his velocity came back with him, unusual so soon after undergoing TJ.  Humber works the strike zone and has a nice repertoire with a low 90’s fastball and a hard curve, as well as a power changeup.  His control is still iffy, a common symptom after TJ, but should improve as time passes.  Depending on what happens with the Mets staff, be it injury or ineffectiveness, Humber will get a look this season.
• Alay Soler (RHP) – I’m not high on Soler.  His stuff isn’t dominant, and his conditioning has always been suspect.  He’s also old for a prospect and the difference between his potential and his reality is small.  He’s likely going to evolve into a swingman.

In Conclusion

The Mets should have some competition as far as the division goes, but I think that overall, their offense should carry them to the post-season for the second time in a row.  How the pitching staff holds up is a difference story, as I don't trust that rotation to stay together the whole season.  Unless they make a deal for another starter, this team is not advancing to the World Series.

Final Standing:  National League East Division Winner