I'd like to take a moment of silence for the careers of Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey, and Johnny Cueto.

Why?

Because the Reds hired this man...

I've maintained for years that Dusty Baker is a good manager to have when you have a lot of vets on a squad and are not trying to integrate rookies into the mix.  Put him on a team that's trying to rebuild however, and you've got problems.

Simply put, Baker can't help himself but abuse young pitchers and unless they got powerful arms able to withstand abuse, he's going to ruin some careers.  We've seen it several times, most notably in Chicago, where he may have destroyed the careers of Mark Prior and Kerry Wood.

I smell disaster cooking...

Coming up on Friday Morning Closer...Brett Myers As A Closer, Matt Murton Could Be Gone, 2006 Free Agent Relievers, And The State Of Japanese Baseball.

Myers As A Closer?  It Could Work

I know that the Phillies didn't give Brett Myers a three-year, $25.75 million contract this winter because they viewed him as a set-up man., but quite frankly, this is a deal that could possible work.

Myers has been awful thus far as a starter and it's possible that his new bullpen role would allow for him to be able to work out the kinks in his delivery and get back into the swing of things.

Plus, Myers could spell Tom Gordon and could emerge as a All-Star Closer.

This wasn't the plan.  I know. The Phillies were hoping Freddy Garcia would slot in well enough to make Jon Lieber expendable, and Lieber would be flipped for a solid bullpen guy.

But it didn't happen and unfortunately, Myers had to be moved into the bullpen, as he's the only one who's got the stuff to throw for strikes.

But, who knows, Myers could blossom into the next great closer in the National League. 

It could happen.

2006 Free Agency – Middle Relievers/Setup Men

The middle relief market figures to heat up this season, as the Orioles kind of set the market last season with all the money they splurged on fixing their bullpen.  Unfortunately, there really isn’t all that many names here in terms of players that have a set track record of success.  Hence, this market is going to be more of a #### shoot than this last off-season’s was.

• Scott Linebrink (Padres) – Linebrink will be hitting the market at a time where middle relief is held to a premium.  As a result, people are going to go gaga over Linebrink, who’s a solid setup man, much like Justin Speier was when he entered the market, and are going to overpay for him by a lot. 
• Naoyuki Shimizu (Chiba Lotte Marines) – [If He Comes Over].  Shimizu has always wanted to come over and has requested to be posted off-season after off-season, but has never been.  He’s going to be a free agent and is almost certainly going to cross over.  Shimizu is an average closer, but he’s rather effective as a long reliever and could be a valuable part of someone’s bullpen.
• Kerry Wood (Cubs) – Currently in extended Spring Training, no one knows what the hell to expect from Mr. Wood.  I think the Cubs are finally ready to cut bait and won’t bring him back, in spite of how much he loves the Cubbies.  So, anyone that is willing to give him a shot had better hope that he can stay healthy (good luck).  I’d classify him as a closer, but he has no track record as one and will have to earn his way to that role.
• Armando Benitez (Giants) – Ick, not much you can say.  Benitez’s days as a closer are likely done, but he could make for a average setup man in the right system.  Hmmm, the Cardinals could come calling.
• Jorge Julio (Marlins) – Julio is long regarded to have closers stuff, but he’s never gotten it together and at this point, may never get it together.  As a result, Julio is kind of caught in that purgatory of the spot closer. 
• Brett Tomko (Dodgers) – [If $4.5Million Mutual Option Declined].  Tomko is a middle reliever that tries to pass himself off as a starter, mostly because people continue to give him a shot as one.  However, he’s an effective long reliever and setup man and could extend his career if he chooses to embrace the role, which he did for a brief shining moment last year.

Japanese Baseball Needs To Change…Fast

Japanese baseball is already in full swing, but already the game seems more and more empty.

The losses of many of the best players in the game has hurt the sport in more ways than one.

An exodus that begun with Nomo and has continued most recently with Igawa, Matsuzaka and Iwamura’s move has confirmed the latest talent drain from the sport.

Under Japanese baseball rules, a player cannot become a free agent until after playing nine seasons of professional baseball.  But the posting system, which allows teams to send players over before they become free agents, has hurt the sport in more ways than it has helped, thanks to teams seeking to cash in on their talent, but has hurt the overall game.  The Seibu Lions, a team that was under immense financial debt, pocketed $51.1 million from the Red Sox for the negotiating rights to Matsuzaka, much as the Orix BlueWave did when they posted star Ichiro Suzuki years ago.

But the quick cash hasn’t done much to help the clubs.  Orix eventually had to merge with the Kintetsu Buffaloes to stay in business, in spite of the Ichiro Posting Fee, and the overall talent drain has started to hurt ratings as well as hurt attendance in stadiums all around the league.  Even the Yomimuri Giants, the former club of Hideki Matsui, has begun to feel the pain of the talent drain and has changed their sink or swim approach to the rest of the league and now wants to help stop the drain before it affects them.

Some owners have suggested putting limits on the system, and indeed, after the Matsuzaka fiasco, it looks like the posting system will be changed to stop the clubs from flooding the market with talent in order to cash in.

But that’s not the only problem.

The draft process is a sham, and has resulted in the best players heading towards the richer teams, as well as the recent scandal involving the Lions making illicit payments to amateur players around the country has resulted in questions regarding the entire process. 

The Union also needs reform and is probably the weakest union in pro sports, even weaker than that of the mighty NFL.  Plus, with the potential that the majors could be preparing an international draft, as well as major league academies opening up in the Far East poses a major threat to the Japanese League as we know it.

In that regard, changes need to happen for the Japanese League to survive.  Limits on the posting process need to be made, as well as there being a concretive effort to keep the talent home instead of risking all of it going abroad.

Another decision that also could be made is for both American and Japanese Leagues to also develop a sort of trading system, as a way for major league clubs in Japan to be able to trade prospects with those in America.  While this could result in a culture clash of unknown proportions, it would also allow both sides of the pacific to get a taste of both worlds.

There is too much to be done in order to fix Japanese Baseball, but in the long run, it would be better off, for both leagues, to ensure it’s survival.  The Japanese Leagues have been around for over 50 years and have their own legends and traditions that go on.  It would be a shame to see them disappear.

Matt Murton Could Be Available

With Felix Pie now in Chi-Town, there is rumors that he could be there to stay, where his defense would allow Alfonso Soriano to slide over to right field as soon as he's ready to.

However, who's playing time will this come at an expense to.  Many point to Jacque Jones, who's playing awful at the moment.  The Cubbies would also love to lose his salary and gain something in return for him, maybe a prospect or a solid reliever.

However, on ESPN Radio on Tuesday, Keith Law actually reported that it would be Matt Murton that would be dealt, not Jones, if the Cubbies decide to keep Pie in the majors.

The move has some logic.  Let's look at the facts.

Law's rationale was that Murton does not fit the Lou Pinellai type of player, in that he's a quiet guy, respectable and that he keeps to himself.  Also, Pinella wanted to stick with Jones for the season and when it came down to which corner would lose time to Cliff Floyd, Murton was automatically given the boot.

I got better reasons why.

• Murton Is Productive.  Murton is the type of player that could average about .290, 15, 80 in the majors while playing a solid left field, as he doesn't have the range for center nor does he have the arm for right.

• Salary.  The Reason why the Cubbies would keep Murton is the same reason why they want to get rid of Jones.  Murton is still under the coveted 0-3 service time label and isn't eligable for arbitration until after next season. 

• Upside.  Murton has great value in that he's the type of player you want farther back in the order and that he's going to only get better.  Jones, meanwhile, is going to be appraoching his declien phase soon and no one is really interested in a declining semi-slugger that has a high price tag on him.

• Return Package.  Murton would also result in the higher return on the investment for the Cubs.  In exchange for Jones, the Cubbies would still have to pay his salary in order to get anything of consequence out of their trade partner.  As for Murton, the Cubs could get a nice prospect or a promising piece of a bullpen or bench player that could help the club now.

So, there you have it.  If anyone is interested, please call the Cubbies before they come to their senses. 

See you all next week.

Chicago Cubs

The Cubbies boosted the payroll dramatically by spending nearly $300 million in free agency to boost their payroll (and surrendering some draft picks in the process, never a wise move.)  However, for all of the offensive improvements that were done, they still have glaring weaknesses, namely the rotation and the bullpen.

Starting Rotation

1. Carlos Zambrano (RHP) – Zambrano is one of a few pitchers I would tab as a certifiable ace.  His stuff is fantastic and he’s proven to be durable for much of the time, though people also argue that all those innings racked up at an early age spell future arm troubles, a la Pedro.  Zambrano is a strikeout machine that can dominate you at any given time and should put of another Cy Young caliber performance, especially when you consider the fact that he’s entering his walk year this season, with several clubs looking to give him a huge deal.  The Big Z himself has issued an ultimatum that unless he gets an extension now, he's gone.  We’ll see what happens, as I think there is a very good chance that he leaves Wrigley after this year.
2. Rich Hill (RHP) – Hill came out of nowhere, dominating the league after a shaky start, going 6-3 with a 2.92 ERA and 79 strikeouts in 13 games (12 starts) in the second half.  Part of this was that he was able to successfully add better supplemental pitches to his great curveball and he began to display some durability.  Still, Hill hasn’t been consistent in his career, so depending him on as a number two is a bit of a stretch. 
3. Ted Lilly (LHP) – Lilly has had some durability issues in his career, but he has been solid the last couple of years, either a sign that he’s finally put his history of injuries behind him or just a calm before a storm.  Lilly should actually do very well in the National League as he was one of the top AL lefties the past few years, with only Santana and maybe Zito ahead of him.  When you compare Lilly with Zito, the other major lefty to go NL, Lilly could actually be a wiser investment as his stuff is actually better than Zito, who’s performance was heavily tied to Oakland’s outstanding defense. 
4. Jason Marquis (RHP) – Okay, this is a puzzling addition.  Marquis was destroyed last season with the Cardinals, who left him off the playoff roster.  Add in the fact that Marquis has also been reluctant to accept instruction from pitching coaches and pretty much does what he wants and I thought he’d take a one year deal, prove himself and re-enter the market.  Marquis isn’t a lost cause.  If he’s able to make some changes in the way he pitches, he could be a bargain. 
5. Mark Prior (LHP) – Prior seems due for a rebound after years of injuries taking away his opportunity to be a star.  His stuff was still solid during limited action last season and it’s possible that he could regain some durability if his starts are limited at the fifth starter role.  In the event that he does falter, there are some fall back options, though they’re not good ones.

Bullpen

• Ryan Dempster (Closer) – Dempster is the shakiest closer entering the season, mostly because he has the prior experience to do so.  He’s likely to be average at best, making it tempting to switch to Kerry Wood as the season goes on.
• Kerry Wood (Setup Man) – Wood will probably wind up as the setup man, a role that he excelled in during limited duty.  Long term, Wood could be a dominant closer, where he would be able to use his stuff in limited outings and not have to worry about the potential damage his explosive delivery will do over the course o####ame.
• Bob Howry (RHP) – This veteran right hander can provide good 7th inning relief and can spot close if need be.
• Neil Cotts (LHP) – Cotts had been the Sox' top lefty reliever on the 2005 World Series winner, but he has had some bad outings sicne then and was traded this past season.  Cotts can still become a awesome situational left hander, so it’s possible that a change of scenery (award from Chicago’s home run friendly park) will be good for him.
• Wade Miller (RHP) – Miller wasn’t bad in his limited outing after TJ surgery and the Cubs were heartened enough with his performance that they brought him back for another go.  With all the off-season signings, Miller will likely be pushed to the bullpen unless Prior self destructs.
• Scott Eyre (LHP) – A solid lefty reliever, Eyre dominates right handers, but gets killed by lefties.
• Michael Wuertz (RHP) – Wuertz should provide another setup option, in case Wood decides to make his annual trip to the DL.

Projected Lineup

1. Alfonso Soriano (CF) – Soriano not only proved he could hit in RFK, but he also proved that he could handle a new position.  With his newly minted status as a 40/40 club member, Soriano cashed in big with the Cubs, who sought an improvement over their existing centerfielder, Juan Pierre.  He should hit for power and steal some bases, but the strikeouts will hurt at the worst time and really, he isn’t the type of player that deserves as huge of a paycheck as he got.  He’ll be brutal at the tail end of the deal.
2. Mark DeRosa (2B) – The Rangers made a competitive offer to keep their utilityman, but DeRosa chose the prospect of starting full time in the infield over being shuffled across the diamond.  DeRosa finally seemed to put it together offensively, possibly due to his emulation of Michael Young and Rudy Jaramillo’s teachings, and while he won’t be as good as he was in 2006, he should be capable of hitting .280 and producing well in the second spot.
3. Derrek Lee (1B) – Lee severely underperformed after his breakout 2005, but it’s also likely that that 2005 was an fluke and he is returning to what he usually is, a solid first baseman that hits well at the third spot.  I think he’ll produce well at the third spot, hitting around .300 with some power, but he’s not going to be a dominant run producer.
4. Aramis Ramirez (3B) – Ramirez erupted during the second half, hitting .328 with 22 home runs and 67 RBI’s in 72 games and promptly opted out of his contract to get himself a megabucks deal.  When compared to some of the other deals that were signed on the market, the Cubs actually got somewhat of a bargain on him.  Hitting cleanup, Ramirez should take advantage of the RBI opportunities that are made available to him and should be a 30 home run threat for the next five years or so.
5. Jacque Jones (RF) – In spite of Jones wanting out, I think he’ll likely stay in Chicago because, to be frank, the Cubs need him.  Jones hit for power and for average, plus gives some balance to the lineup as a left handed hitter.  His defense is pretty good he’s got a little bit of speed on his wheels.  Hitting fifth, Jones should be a solid run producer.  Oh, and as for the trade rumors?  Jones could be dealt at the deadline if the Cubs are out of contention or need a starter and Felix Pie is ready.
6. Michael Barrett (C) – A solid offensive catcher, Barrett should be great this year, as he’ll be entering his prime as a catcher, plus will be placed in a good spot in the lineup for him to do his thing.  Now, about that thing with A.J. Pierzynski…
7. Matt Murton (LF) – Why the Cubs want to platoon Murton is beyond me.  He had a very good year, hitting .291 with 13 home runs and 62 RBI’s, and hit both left and right handed pitching well.  His defense is very good with the possibility of improving as he gets more time and with a year and a half of service time under his belt, he’s a cheap date for the next few years.  Again, I don’t understand the Cubs braintrust at all.
8. Cesar Izturis (SS) – I’d have thought the Cubs would have gotten much more for Greg Maddux.  Instead, they get a solid defender that can’t hit enough to save his life.

Bench

• Ronny Cedeno (IF) – A solid defender, Cedeno didn’t do much to establish himself, prompting the Cubs to seek another shortstop option.   The crazy thing is, Cedeno could probably still be a better option than Izturis.
• Cliff Floyd (OF) – Yeah, I know, the bat is awesome when he’s healthy.  But really, what was the Cubs’ fascination for a hitter that’s clearly on the decline and will likely be a defensive statue when he is taking away at bats from Matt Murton?
• Henry Blanco (C) – Not a bad option, as far as backup catchers go.  He’s got some solid production as far as his bat goes and his glove is average.
• Angel Pagan (OF) – Pagan is likely going to be the forth outfielder role, as he can play the corners and can hit reasonably well.  But he’s terrible against lefties, meaning his options are limited.
• Ryan Theriot (IF) – Another infield, Theriot was pretty good in limited duty and can play the corner infield if necessary.

Down On The Farm…

A weak system, depleted by trades and poor scouting,   That sums up the Cubs in a nutshell. 

• Sean Marshall (LHP) – Marshall made his debut last season and it was as good as can be expected, going 6-9 with a 5.59 ERA, plus giving up a alarming 20 home runs.   To be fair, Marshall was also directly promoted from Double A, so it’s likely that he still needs some growing time.  Marshall’s best pitch is a slider that induces ground balls and he’s got decent command, but he needs a third pitch to go with his fastball in order for him to have long-term success in the majors.
• Felix Pie (CF) – The Cubs’ uber-prospect at the moment, Pie has a long, lanky body and has three of the coveted five tools (power, speed, arm strength).  His body is still projectable and he’s young enough to improve as time passes.  However, Pie needs to get some plate discipline as he tries too hard for the long ball and lefties have owned him for years.  He also needs to develop some more instincts as far as centerfield is concerned, but he should be able to stick.  Pie is likely to stay in the minors for another year, as he’s not quite ready for the big club yet.
• Eric Patterson (2B) –Patterson is an athletic second baseman with leadoff potential and speed on the base paths.  He’s a solid defender with a strong arm that should help the pitchers once he makes the big club.  However, Patterson gets killed against good lefties, hence he needs some more time to be able to adjust, time that the Cubs are willing to give him, unlike his brother, Corey.
• Scott Moore (IF/OF) – Moore was acquired along Bo Flowers for Kyle Farnsworth and he seems to be screwed long term with Lee, Ramirez, Murton and Soriano blocking all of his spots.  Moore has got good power and seems to be a functional defender, but he also racks up strikeouts and may be a DH long term.  Which again, there is no spot for with the Cubs.  He’s likely going to be traded for help this season, depending on how well he does this season.
• Jeff Samardzija (RHP) – Just for kicks, let’s check out Samardzija, taking material from Dayn Perry (shudder), Baseball Prospectus and Keith Law.  Samardzija has great height and could pack on some more weight on his frame n the future.  Theoretically, he could become a power pitcher, as he’s got a mid 90’s fastball that hits the upper 90’s at times, and he’s got the makings o####ood slider, but he needs to develop it plus add a third pitch to be a solid starter in the majors.  Plus, consider the fact that he’s never dedicated himself wholly to baseball until now.  Hence, he’s really raw and the Cubs need to work with him slowly, in order to properly monitor the investment they’re making in him. 

In Conclusion

The Cubs will likely be in the mix for the NL Central Crown until at least the last month of the season.  But the Cubbies are gambling on Marquis and Prior to be some semblance of their former selves and the pen is solid on paper, but far from a sure thing.  The Offense will be better, so long as the Cubs keep Murton in the lineup often, but in all honesty, I don't think the Cubs have done much but improve themselves more than three places.  In conclusion, this team will likely finish above .500, but just a few games out of first.

Final Standing:  Third Place In The National League Central

Friday Morning Closer

Here’s my three-pitch outing for the day.

Enough Of This ####!

Listen Yankee fans.  I’m sick and tired of hearing about all this #### about A-Rod not being a “true” Yankee, that he’s never going to be accepted unless he comes through in the clutch, that he’ll never be equal to Jeter in ability and talent.

Enough already.

While it’s true that A-Rod seems to be too structured and less the genuine at times, he’s a hell of a lot better than they guy that the Yankee fans keep wanting to reference to, Scott Brosius.

Brosius, who was obtained for Kenny Rogers in 1998 and was seemingly deified in Buster Olney’s book The Last Night Of The Yankee Dynasty, was remarkably mediocre save for his 1996 Season with Oakland (.304, 22 HR, 71 RBIs) and his 1998 season with New York (.300, 19 HRs, 98 RBIs).   Then he turned in a stellar postseason by hitting .383 with four homers and 15 RBIs, capped by a World Series MVP award.  After that, Brosius was remarkably terrible, hitting .254 and averaging about 15 Home Runs and 61 RBI’s. 

Meanwhile, Rodriguez has outperformed Brosius in every sense of the word, hitting .299 while averaging 39 Home Runs and 117 RBI’s.  He’s third among Major League Third Baseman in Home Runs, (34), second in walks (86), 9th in Slugging Percentage (.514), and 9th in Hits (157).  Compare him to the Yankees, and he’s second in Home Runs, Walks, and Slugging Percentage, First in RBI’s, and Third in Hits and On Base Percentage.

But then comes the inevitable argument.

But Brosius was better during the post-season

Oh Really!

Scott Brosius's Post Season Numbers

                                              HR       RBI       BB      SO     BA        OBP      SLG

 12 Postseason Series     8          30           8      46      .245     .278      .418

Alex Rodriguez's Post-Season Numbers

                                            HR         RBI        BB    SO    BA     OBP         SLG 

 8 Postseason Series      6            16      15     28      .305    .393    .534

Santana Closing In On Pitchers Triple Crown

Here’s something that hasn’t been mentioned by many. Johan Santana is rapidly closing in on the Pitchers Triple Crown.  He leads all pitchers with 18 wins, 240 strikeouts, and a 2.79 ERA.  The last time that there was a Pitchers Triple Crown was in 2002 when Randy Johnson did it with 24 wins, 334 strikeouts and a 2.32 ERA.  The last time it happened in the AL was in 1999, when Pedro Matrinez accomplished the feat with 23 wins, 313 strikeouts and a 2.07 ERA.

Red Sox Need A Closer

With Jonathan Papelbon now moving into the rotation, the bullpen is now completely devoid of any impact players that can hold a lead in the 7th, 8th, or 9th inning.  There are still questions as to whether or not this is a wise idea.  Papelbon has been dominant as the closer, but his splitter wears on his arm and he’s had some health problems that create some doubts as to whether or not he can last 200 innings a season.   If Paps is taken out of the bullpen, that leaves the Red Sox with Julian Taverez and Manny Delcarmen, who has managed to survive the first trial by fire that all Boston players go to.  This fills the role of the long reliever and the setup man, but lefty specialist, middle reliever, and closer are all going to need to be filled. While the Red Sox could strike it rich as far as a lefty is concerned, plus bringing Keith Foulke and Mike TImlin back for one more year as a setup men/spot closers, neither is a sure bet to stay healthy or to successfully dominate as a closer. 

So what options are available? As far as existing assets, Boston could use Matt Clement as the closer, seeing as how he’s unmovable and that they have him on the books for another year.  It’s possible that if he limits his innings, he could be able to prolong his effectiveness and not succumb to his tendency to become a batting tee.  But that’s a very dangerous gamble, as at this point, you have no idea what you have with Clement at the moment.  Craig Hansen was drafted to become the eventual closer, and he’s still got that high 90’s fastball with that good breaking ball.  But he’s regressed this season, a fact that I know is a consequence of his rushed development to the big club.

As far as trade options, there was a rumored trade with Texas for Francisco Cordero, but the Rangers didn’t find any options that would have helped them.  I heard this rumor only a couple of times, so it’s possible that this was just a baseless one and not one with any fact.  However, the Sox could trade with Houston for closer Brad Lidge, who that Astros tried to move at the deadline in order to give the job to Dan Wheeler.  But again, there isn’t anything Boston can send back to the Astros in return.  Despite the fact that Lidge has had some control problems, as seen by his high ERA, the Astros aren’t going to give him away.  The Red Sox would have to deal a relatively decent prospect in return, which I’m not so sure they’re willing to do. So that leaves free agency, which isn’t a lock either.

Danys Baez – The former D-Rays closer is 29 and was a hot commodity after converting 41 of 49 save opportunities (83.7%) for the Devil Rays last year with a 2.86 ERA.  He was traded to the Dodgers this year for garbage, but in return was just 9 for 16 after Eric Gagne went down.  He was traded to the Braves and worked ten innings until he needed an appendectomy.  Baez doesn’t blow hitters away and outmaneuvered hitters last season instead of dominating them.  He’s going to want a lot of money, but he’s not worth it.

Octavio Dotel – The former Astros and A’s closer finally returned from Tommy John surgery on August 16th, 14 months later.  The results haven’t been pretty, but this could be attributed to the recovery factor that always follows Tommy John.  He’s mentioned a desire to return to New York, but it’s unlikely, thanks to the emergence of Darrel Rasner.

Joe Borowski – No one expected Borowski to have such success with the Cubs from 2002-03, and his resurgence in 2006 has been equally surprising.  This year, he’s posted a 3.21 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, and 31 saves.  However, he’s older and has some miles on his arm, increasing the risk on signing him. 

Eric Gagne – Gagne was one of the most dangerous closers a few years ago, but a slew of health problems have taken the axe to his career.  Gagne hopes to remain a Dodger, but Scott Boras could convince him to explore the market.   It’s unknown whether or not Gagne still has that 100 mph heater, but if he’s anywhere close to where he was, he could again be a solid closer.  However, Gagne has only pitched 15.3 innings over the last two seasons.  He's a very risky signing, even if his contract is mostly performance based.

Kerry Wood – Wood finally admitted that he might be better off as a reliever last seasoncould surprise as a closer if one of them is willing to give it a shot.  If Wood is able to harness his talents in the bullpen, he could easily rank as one of the most dangerous closers in baseball.  But again, that’s a big if, as Wood has had trouble staying healthy long enough to allow his velocity to come back completely.

As you can see, the Red Sox are in a bind as far as their bullpen goes.  They could offer several of these guys a shot at the job in spring training, and perhaps keep some of them along to deepen the bullpen.  None of these guys will replace what they had in Papelbon, but until Hansen is able to take over the job, Boston has no choice but to put them chips in one of these teetering baskets and hope that it doesn’t fall over.

Zito Not Headed To The Big Apple

This has got to be the last thing Scott Boras wanted to hear.  Multiple newspapers are reporting that both New York teams have minimal interest in Barry Zito.  When the Mets made a run for Roy Oswalt at the trade deadline, they stayed away from Zito, not just for the asking price, but because Zito wasn’t viewed as a number one starter.  Reportedly, the New York Yankees feel the same way and would prefer to sign some lower price, serviceable talent, that would be able to perform well enough for the Yankees to work in top prospects Philip Hughes and Tyler Clippard.  This is the complete opposite of what we were hearing in April and from what was flying around at the deadline.  Boston is also said to be out of it, as they lack the payroll flexibility, plus they have several more needs that need tending to.  Popular speculation is that the Padres and Rangers are now the biggest horses in the race.

San Diego – The Padres are willing to spend the money in this off-season to upgrade the team, but with the pitching staff as solid as it is, the Padres would be better off upgrading some of their other positions, such as catcher and third base.  They could make a run at Zito, who would greatly benefit from a weaker national league lineup, and the spacious outfield of Petco Park.

Texas – If Zito were to sign with the Rangers, Texas would have a lefthanded starter that typically does well in their park, plus can eat up innings and stay relatively healthy.  He’s not an ace, but Zito would at least give the Rangers a solid one two punch with Millwood.  Again, the Rangers would also have to bring back either Vicente Padilla or Adam Eaton (possibly both) for them to take full advantage of their pitching staff.

Seattle – The Mariners would have to unload Adrian Beltre in order for them to be able to pull this off.  They’ll likely sign Jason Schmidt, but they seem more inclined to go after Daisuke Matsuzaka, who is far more dangerous as a starter.  Still, I could see the Mariners entering the bidding if they lose out on the posting price (depending on Boston, Texas, New York, and Los Angeles.)  I still see them as a long shot, though.

Philadelphia Phillies – The Phillies could be a player, since they will have some money to play around with and vacancies in the rotation.  They’ll make things interesting, but will likely be outbid.

Chicago Cubs – The Cubs could try to make an offer, seeing as how the lineup is relatively weak behind Carlos Zambrano.  However, it’s unknown what the wind currents at Wrigley will do to a pitcher like Zito, and could sap his effectiveness.  Plus, the Cubs need position players a hell of a lot more than they do pitchers, namely a shortstop WHO CAN HIT, a second baseman, and possibly a catcher if Aramis Ramirez opts out.  It’s very possible that the Cubs would prefer to chase down one of the two big power bats that will be available: Carlos Lee or Alfonso Soriano.

Do I think it’s all a smokescreen?  Of course.  But if the rumors are true, it’s going to get interesting to see how the bidding goes without the two heaviest of hitters joining into the fray.

Friday Morning Closer

Here is my six-pitch outing for today.

A Breakdown Of The Aubrey Huff Trade

Since I don’t want to begin with Bonds News Today, here is a breakdown on the Aubrey Huff trade, which I didn’t want to conflict with the All-Star Week Special Columns I cooked up for you all.

Aubrey Huff was sent to the Houston Astros along with $1.6 million in cash for a pair of Minor League prospects, RHP Mitch Talbot and switch-hitting shortstop Ben Zobrist.  For The Astros, they get the flexible Huff, who will more than likely be starting in right field to replace Jason Lane.  Huff gives the Astros a shot in the arm in terms of power and contact.  Plus, he also gives the Astros a second legitimate power bat to protect Lance Berkman. 

As for Tampa, it’s a good trade.  For once, they didn’t botch it up, like they did with the Danys Baez trade.  Zobrist is the better of the bunch, batting .328 with a team-high 25 doubles and a league-best six triples in 82 games for Corpus Christi this season.  While the Devil Rays are trying to pass him off as an utilityman, the fact is that Zobrist is a hell of a lot better defensively than B.J. Upton, who is horrible.  With that in mind, the best thing for the Rays to do is have Zobrist become the shortstop while moving Upton to third base, in order to minimize the damage he can do defensively.   As for Talbot, he is a ways away from being ready.  He’s 6-4 with a 3.39 ERA in Corpus Christi this season and had the best control among the Astros’ minor league pitchers by Baseball America.  He also has a good changeup-fastball combination and should be a decent middle of the rotation starter. 

Bonds To Be Indicted

According to a report in the New York Daily News, Major League Baseball expect a San Francisco grand jury to indict Giants slugger Barry Bonds, possibly even as soon as next week on charges of perjury and tax evasion.  Several sources within MLB said they found plenty of damning information about Bonds in their own investigation, which was covertly launched a year before Bud Selig appointed George Mitchell in March to head an MLB inquiry into steroid use.   The issue that is going to be important is what is Selig going to do with Bonds if he is indicited. 

Selig will likely allow Bonds to continue playing, fearing the wrath of the Giants and the Players Union (even though Bonds is not a member.)  However, what Selig should do is invoke the "Best Interests Of The Game" clause and suspend Bonds from playing in the meantime, not because of the record, but because this three ring circus is the last thing that the game needs at this point in time.

Kerry Wood Done For The Year…And Done With Chicago

Old news, but Kerry Wood is Done For The Year.  An MRI arthrogram taken last Friday at Northwestern Memorial Hospital showed why Wood has been complaining about shoulder soreness while playing catch in recent weeks and why he had to shut down a simulated game June 19 in Cleveland after 70 pitches.  His rotator cup is showing a tear.  Wood is expected to try to rehab the tear without having arthroscopic surgery to repair it -- a difficult procedure, he has been told.

Still, this is the final nail in the coffin for Wood’s career in Chicago.  After about ten years or so since his debut in 1997, Wood has teased the Cubs with promise, but has not been able to stay healthy long enough to become the ace he was expected to be when he first came up. 

Wood has acknowledged for the first time that he might have to consider returning as a reliever (something I said he should do.  His stuff is good enough to make his a good closer.)  But with all the work that’s been done on his arm and shoulder, he’s going to have to accept a low market deal to give himself a shot at keeping a job.  It’s certain that the Cubs will turn down his $13.5million option for 2007.  General manager Jim Hendry might offer him an incentive-laden, one-year deal to return, similar to what was given to Sidney Ponson.  However, I’m not sure that Hendry, or the Tribute Company for that matter, will want the Kerry Wood show to continue to symbolize the Cubs of the last four years or so.  Promising, but unfulfilled. 

Sir Sidney In The Bronx?

Sidney Ponson was released by the Cardinals yesterday, and has already found himself a new home with the New York Yankees.  The deal make any sense in that there really isn’t any other option for New York.  The market on starters is low and the Yankees need something ANYTHING to shore up that rotation, with Shawn Chacon getting rocked and Carl Pavano still gone.  However, I’m not sure that Ponson will be much more of a contributor than Jaret Wright.  He’ll probably give you six before turning it over to the pen, another concern for New York.  The offense will likely need to continue to have to mash in order for the Yankees to even have a prayer at winning the AL East. 

This Should Be Popular With The Red Sox Nation

Thanks to a recent licensing agreement between Major League Baseball and a company called Eternal Images, you too can go into the afterlife showing your team loyalty.  Thanks to Eternal Images’ new lines of customized caskets and cremation urns, decorated with the team logo and colors of your choice.  Baseball marketing officials had been approached a number of times over the years for permission to use MLB trademarks this way and reluctantly decided that a licensing agreement was the best way to make sure that it was done in a tasteful and respectful manner.  MLB will receive an 11 percent royalty from the sale of all caskets and urns bearing team logos, which could add up to some good money because the customized MLB caskets are expected to retail for up to $3,500 and the cremation urns up to $1,000.  I don’t know if this is genius or gruesome…

Canseco Watch

After underperforming for much of his time with the Long Beach Armada (during which Jose Canseco Photo Giveaway Weekend was held), Canseco finally broke out of his slump yesterday, going 3 for 3 with four RBI’s and reportedly was only a triple away from the cycle.  His batting average is now at .308.  Interestingly enough, he is listed as an outfielder, which means we probably won’t get news about Canseco and his “knuckleball.”

Friday Morning Closer

Here is my three pitch outing for the day:

Russ Ortiz Is Available

But only if you really want him.

One of the more inexplicable crashes in baseball, Ortiz, who was 103-60 with an ERA around 4.02, became awful, going 5-16 with a ERA around 7.41.  Even worse, his strikeout totals have plummeted while his walk totals have risen.  While the Diamondbacks would loved to have gotten SOMETHING for Ortiz, hell even a box of napkins for the concession would be considered fair value, the monster contract he signed scared away any possible takers. 

The Arizona Diamondbacks decided Tuesday they would rather eat the remaining $22 million of Russ Ortiz' contract than keep him on their roster, a good move, considering that Ortiz did more harm than good for the D-acks.

For the Snakes, it means that they get a chance to move on.  The cash was spent, that much is known, so this way, Arizona frees up a roster space that a rookie could easily fill and possibly do better in.

For Ortiz, there will be opportunities.  There will be many who will take a look at him and decide that his meltdown was the result of playing in a hitter's park.  Some team in a spacious park, the Padres or the Mets, may give him a small contract.  He doesn't need any more bank, not with the $20 million that's coming his way, and he may resurrect his career.

Or he may be done and the Diamondbacks will be more careful where they spend their money.

All I can say is that this is a good lesson in fiscal responsibility for all.

An Era Coming To An End

Kerry Wood is back on the disabled list.  And for the Cubs, it may be the last time.

Wood is going on the disabled list for the 10^th time in his career, retroactive to June 7.  When asked if Wood may need the remainder of the year to heal his stiff shoulder, manager Dusty Baker said it was “possible.”

If so, than it’s unlikely Wood will be with the team next year. 

Wood’s current contract is in the final year of his contract, with a $13 million option for next year.  This was Wood’s final chance to prove that he could be a healthy, productive player for a major league team.  Based on Wood’s production, which was far from outstanding, he’s done nothing to justify the Cubs to pick up his option.

Unless Wood massively renegotiates his deal with lots of incentive clause’s, he’s likely gone. 

Wood has some options.  He could go to a pitcher’s ballpark where he wouldn’t have the weight of being the Cubs’ savior on his shoulders.  Such options are San Diego, possibly Seattle, maybe even the Devil Rays if they can get him crazy cheap.  But beyond that, the only other way I could see Wood having a career is as a setup man or as a closer.  And both of those are serious questions at this point, because clubs are no longer sure if he can stay healthy.

All in all, it’s sad to see how far Wood has fallen, from the self appointed heir of Nolan Ryan to modern day version of Dwight Gooden: a gifted pitcher with talent whose career took a turn for the worst and never recovered.  If it’s any consolation to Wood, he, unlike Gooden, never had control of his own fate.

A Sorry Situation From Wednesday’s Game

This should probably be in the Rangers Report, but because of the outcry it caused, I’m going to comment on it here.  During the White Sox's 8-0 loss to the Texas Rangers on Wednesday, after watching catcher A.J. Pierzynski get beaned by Rangers starter Vicente Padilla in the second and fourth innings, rookie reliever Sean Tracey was brought into the game in the seventh to face Hank Blalock.

Tracey also entered the game with specific instructions.  And that was to bean Blalock.  Tracey did throw one inside pitch to Blalock, but then he simply pitched to the third baseman and got him out.  Ozzie Guillen, angered, went to the mound and sent Tracey to the dugout.  After screaming at Tracey, in which he was visibly upset and looked almost on the brink of tears, Guillen sent him back down to Class AAA Charlotte.

This incident has been brewing for a long time, as Ranger Manager Buck Showalter and Guilen have a immense dislike for the other, which finally blew over on Wednesday.   And while beaning a batter is a part of baseball, I'm going to take Guillen to task that he should not have made Tracey the headhunter in this case.   The responsbility should have gone to Javier Vasquez, the starter, who should have retaliated after the first beaning of Pierzynski.  Vasquez should have sent the message loud and clear, but instead placed the responsbility on a rookie that wanted to please his manager, but wasn't able to handle the task.

Now Tracey is back in the minors, and probably won't return for a long long time.

Nice.

How Wood Can Save His Career

Kerry Wood is at a crossroads in his career.

We all know what Wood and his shower buddy Mark Prior are: two talented pitchers that have lost their way thanks to injury.  (Bet the Yankees are glad Prior went to college.)   What has been forgotten about by nearly the entire baseball world outside of Wrigleyville is that these two pitchers were once considered to be the second comings of Nolan Ryan and Greg Maddux, respectively.  And indeed, they looked like they were going to fulfill those expectations during that magical year in 2003 when it looked like the Cubs were about to reverse the oldest curse in baseball, when they would finally shake the lovable losers tag that had long been stuck to them since early last century.  Prior and Wood both gave career seasons and pitched beautifully.  Had it not been for a meltdown in Game 6 of the NLCS, the Cubs would have been well on their way to a World Series Crown.  Well, maybe not…

However, in the past two seasons, both of these guys have been derailed by a wide assortment of serious injuries that made Juan Gonzalez seem like a medical marvel by comparison.  And without their two young studs, the Cubs have fallen short on making the post season two years in a row.  And while there is still hope for Prior, as he needs to condition his arm all year round in order to keep himself off the disabled list, the future isn’t so rosy for Wood. 

Most of Wood’s problems come from his funky, violent delivery that puts enormous strain on his shoulder.  He’s also had Tommy John surgery and numerous other problems with his shoulder and legs, many of which required further surgery.  Plus, he was worked incredibly hard at a young age, giving him a large amount of wear and tear on his young arm while he was still developing.  As a result, Wood isn’t durable and can’t be counted on to be the workhorse the Cubs need him to be.

However, there is still a path for Wood to embark on.  On that was taken by another great young starter who fell on hard times.  Instead of allowing his career to simply die, he took another career path that ensured his election to the Hall of Fame.  And Kerry Wood, at the age of 28, is a prime candidate to do it.

Wood should become a closer.

When he was drafted, it was common knowledge that Wood’s delivery made him a disabled list regular at some point in time.  Wood has since tried to fix his delivery during the off-season, but often regresses back to his old habits when the game is on the line or when he is under pressure.  In my opinion, Wood never should have become a starter.  But the Cubs dropped the ball and should have searched for a capacity to use his obvious talent. 

Wood is still relatively young to pursue such a career change.  Eckersley was 33 when he became Oakland’s closer.  Like Wood, Eckersley was a brash young flamethrower that had early promise, but then became a mediocre starter.  Wood is viewed very much the same way.  Great gifts, don’t get me wrong, but can’t hack it over the long course of a season.

2006:  Do or Die for Wood and Prior

This is going to be the year that the Cubbies decide whether or not to finally pull the plug on the best examples of what not to do with your young pitching.

We all remember the hype that Mark Prior and Kerry Wood had when they arrived in the league.  Wood was seen as the second coming of Nolan Ryan and Prior, a fantastic power pitcher that had been originally drafted by the Yankees before he chose to go to USC, was seen as the ace of the rotation for years to come.  Both had great seasons early on in their careers, cumulating in that 2003 playoff run that got everyone believing that it could be the Cubs’ year. 

Things didn’t work out that way. 

Now both of these young, talented pitchers have fallen on hard times.   Their seemingly endless trips to the disabled list are now a running joke and without these two pitchers in their rotation, the Cubs have missed the playoffs the past two years.

I’m not trashing Wood or Prior.  Far from it.  I hope both of these guys can recover and resume their careers free from injury.  They aren’t bad people.  But something’s gotta change for the Cubs.  This sideshow has got to go, or at the very least, reduced dramatically.

Yes, it’s true, both players, when healthy, as two of the top pitchers in baseball.  Prior is able to beat you in some many ways with that exquisite command that he has.  And Wood, with his that blazing fastball of his, is able to blow you away.  When you see them pitch, you’re just amazed by what either guy can do.  When both were healthy in 2003, they yielded spectacular results.

Unfortunately, their power also is what kills them.  Their mechanics are so explosive that it was common knowledge among scouts that at some point injuries were going to be inevitable.  And while Wood has attempted to fix his delivery, he seems to regress to how his old ways when he begins to get frustrated.  And it’s starting to look like neither one of them won’t last like a pair of other pitchers with explosive deliveries, Nolan Ryan and Roger Clemens.

Hence, it’s time for the Cubs to decide what to do with their talented, but injury prone young starters.  And they need to decide what to do rather quickly, for two reasons:  Talent and Finances.

Unlike most years, the Cubs rotation isn’t lost without Prior or Wood.  The Cubbies have managed to develop a trio of young studs, Sean Marshall, Rich Hill and Angel Guzman.  All of them are almost major league ready.  I personally got to see Sean Marshall play and was very impressed.  Carlos Zambrano is the fast developing into the ace that Prior was supposed to become.  With Zambrano heading the rotation, Marshall, Hill, and Guzman all eventually taking spots in the starting rotation, and Glendon Rusch floating around somewhere, the Cubs are close to outgrowing both Prior and Wood.  Being injured is one thing.  Being injured and being close to expendable is another.

As for the financial reasons, the Cubs will need to decide what to do with Wood soon.  Wood is in the final year of a 3-year, $32.5 Million contract that he signed in 2004.  After this season, he has an option worth $13.5 Million or a $3 Million buyout.  The Cubs will be forced to ask themselves at the end of this season if, despite his mind-blowing talent, Wood is worth retaining for another year.  Prior has two more arbitration years remaining.  While he may be the most salvageable of the two, as seen by the fact that he hit 11 wins last season despite injury, he's almost sure to have his asking price skyrocket in arbitration and free agency.  With the inflated prices placed on starting pitchers this season, he's not worth it. 

I don’t know what's going to happen in Wrigleyville.  Neither do the Cubs.  But they’d better find the answers quickly, before it’s too late.

Wednesday – How Wood Can Save His Career.

Thursday – How to Fix Mark Prior